Soccer prediction system deep audit

Slate 20260907 · immutable forensic review of 2 match prediction artifact(s)

Executive conclusion

No critical breaches. The pipeline is internally consistent across the audited slate.

At a glance

2matches audited
0critical
4errors
7warnings
0grid non-reproducible
0headline != modal
0winner disagreements
0lambda inconsistencies
0with real result
-winner hit-rate
-decisive hit-rate
100%predicted draws
-actual draws
0confident misses
-mean Brier
 

Matches

Elche vs Real Sociedad

20260907_RSO@ELC · LaLiga
ERRORS risk 150 pred 1-1 ()λ 1.02 / 1.35conf 0.64 error 3 warning 3 info 1 good 31
Problems (6)
SevCategoryRuleMessageValueExpected
errorintegritySHOT_MATH_INTEGRITYBuba Sangaré (Elche): shots on target 1 exceed total shots 0.1<= 0
errorintegritySHOT_MATH_INTEGRITYMarc Aguado (Elche): shots on target 1 exceed total shots 0.1<= 0
errorintegritySHOT_MATH_INTEGRITYYangel Herrera (Real Sociedad): shots on target 1 exceed total shots 0.1<= 0
warningintegritySHOT_MATH_INTEGRITYVíctor Chust (Elche): on+off target 0+1=1 exceed total shots 0 (blocked shots cannot be negative).1<= 0
warningintegritySHOT_MATH_INTEGRITYSergio Gómez (Real Sociedad): on+off target 0+2=2 exceed total shots 1 (blocked shots cannot be negative).2<= 1
warningintegritySHOT_MATH_INTEGRITYJon Aramburu (Real Sociedad): on+off target 1+1=2 exceed total shots 1 (blocked shots cannot be negative).2<= 1
Lambda evolution (audit trail)
StageHome λAway λ
Pre-competitive-floor0.9801.347
Pre-calibration0.9801.347
Final1.0201.347
competition_calibration_scale: 1.0competition_observed_total_goals: 0.0quality_gap_applied: Truemismatch_score_pressure_applied: Falsecompetitive_underdog_floor_applied: Truestage_discount: 1.0
Scoreline distribution
Top scorelinesP
1-113.0%
0-112.5%
0-09.5%
1-09.4%
1-28.7%
Outcome — home 28.2% · draw 27.6% · away 44.1%
Markets — O2.5 42.2% · BTTS 47.4%
Passed checks (31)
SevCategoryRuleMessageValueExpected
goodintegritySCHEMA_KEYS_PRESENTAll required sections present.
goodstructureLINEUP_ELEVENElche: 11 starters.
goodstructureFORMATION_VALIDElche: formation 5-3-2 valid.
goodstructureLINEUP_ELEVENReal Sociedad: 11 starters.
goodstructureFORMATION_VALIDReal Sociedad: formation 4-2-3-1 valid.
goodprobabilityOUTCOME_SUMS_ONEoutcome sums to 1.0000.
goodprobabilityMARKETS_COMPLEMENTARYOver/Under and BTTS pairs each sum to 1.
goodprobabilitySCORELINE_PROBS_NONNEGAll scoreline probabilities within [0,1].
goodprobabilityGRID_SUMS_ONEscoreline grid sums to 0.9978.
goodmodel_behaviorGRID_REPRODUCIBLEGrid reproducible from lambdas (max cell diff 0.0011).
goodmodel_behaviorMOST_LIKELY_IS_MODEHeadline score 1-1 is the modal scoreline.
goodprobabilityMLS_PROBABILITY_MATCHESHeadline probability matches the grid.
goodmodel_behaviorOUTCOME_MATCHES_GRIDOutcome split matches the grid (max diff 0.0012).
goodmodel_behaviorMARKETS_MATCH_GRIDMarkets match the grid (max diff 0.0022).
goodintegrityWINNER_IS_VALID_TEAMDraw predicted (no single winner named), consistent with the headline score / match_resolution.
goodmodel_behaviorLAMBDA_BOUNDSLambdas in range (home 1.02, away 1.347).
goodprovenanceLAMBDA_FACTORS_PRESENTlambda_factors audit trail present.
goodmodel_behaviorLAMBDA_CONSISTENCYLambda identical across prediction / antagonist / factors.
goodmodel_behaviorCALIBRATION_SCALE_BOUNDSCalibration scale 1.0 in range.
goodintegrityTEAM_GOALS_SUMElche: player goals reconcile to team total (1).
goodintegrityTEAM_GOALS_SUMReal Sociedad: player goals reconcile to team total (1).
goodstructurePOSSESSION_SUMS_100Possession sums to 100.0%.
goodintegrityPLAYER_STAT_REALISMAll 22 projected player lines pass realism checks.
goodstructureEXACTLY_ONE_GOALKEEPERElche: exactly one goalkeeper (Matías Dituro).
goodintegrityTEAM_SHOTS_CAPElche: 8 projected shots inside the realistic envelope.
goodstructureEXACTLY_ONE_GOALKEEPERReal Sociedad: exactly one goalkeeper (Álex Remiro).
goodintegrityTEAM_SHOTS_CAPReal Sociedad: 14 projected shots inside the realistic envelope.
goodprovenanceSTANDING_AVAILABLELeague-standing context available for both sides.
goodprovenanceRANKING_PROVENANCE22/22 starters carry a ranking source.
goodprovenanceDATA_DEPTH18/22 starters have adequate recent history.
goodprovenancePREGAME_TOTAL_CONSISTENTPregame total 2.37 ~ Poisson total 2.37.
Notes (1)
SevCategoryRuleMessageValueExpected
infomodel_behaviorMODAL_OUTCOME_IS_DRAWHeadline is a draw, but the largest outcome bucket is away_win (0.4412); aggregate probability leans to Real Sociedad.0.4412

Getafe vs Celta

20260907_CEL@GET · LaLiga
ERRORS risk 80 pred 0-0 ()λ 0.93 / 1.02conf 0.61 error 1 warning 4 info 1 good 30
Problems (5)
SevCategoryRuleMessageValueExpected
errorintegritySHOT_MATH_INTEGRITYJavi Rodríguez (Celta): shots on target 1 exceed total shots 0.1<= 0
warningintegritySHOT_MATH_INTEGRITYMartín Satriano (Getafe): on+off target 1+2=3 exceed total shots 2 (blocked shots cannot be negative).3<= 2
warningintegritySHOT_MATH_INTEGRITYRamón Terrats (Getafe): on+off target 1+3=4 exceed total shots 1 (blocked shots cannot be negative).4<= 1
warningintegritySHOT_MATH_INTEGRITYMarcos Alonso (Celta): on+off target 0+2=2 exceed total shots 1 (blocked shots cannot be negative).2<= 1
warningprovenanceDATA_DEPTH11/22 starters have <3 recent games; their stats lean on market-value / prior synthesis rather than form.11
Lambda evolution (audit trail)
StageHome λAway λ
Pre-competitive-floor0.9270.718
Pre-calibration0.9270.718
Final0.9271.020
competition_calibration_scale: 1.0competition_observed_total_goals: 0.0quality_gap_applied: Truemismatch_score_pressure_applied: Falsecompetitive_underdog_floor_applied: Truestage_discount: 1.0
Scoreline distribution
Top scorelinesP
0-014.4%
0-114.4%
1-113.7%
1-013.1%
0-27.4%
Outcome — home 31.7% · draw 31.6% · away 36.6%
Markets — O2.5 30.9% · BTTS 38.8%
Passed checks (30)
SevCategoryRuleMessageValueExpected
goodintegritySCHEMA_KEYS_PRESENTAll required sections present.
goodstructureLINEUP_ELEVENGetafe: 11 starters.
goodstructureFORMATION_VALIDGetafe: formation 4-4-2 valid.
goodstructureLINEUP_ELEVENCelta: 11 starters.
goodstructureFORMATION_VALIDCelta: formation 3-4-3 valid.
goodprobabilityOUTCOME_SUMS_ONEoutcome sums to 1.0000.
goodprobabilityMARKETS_COMPLEMENTARYOver/Under and BTTS pairs each sum to 1.
goodprobabilitySCORELINE_PROBS_NONNEGAll scoreline probabilities within [0,1].
goodprobabilityGRID_SUMS_ONEscoreline grid sums to 0.9978.
goodmodel_behaviorGRID_REPRODUCIBLEGrid reproducible from lambdas (max cell diff 0.0016).
goodmodel_behaviorMOST_LIKELY_IS_MODEHeadline score 0-0 is the modal scoreline.
goodprobabilityMLS_PROBABILITY_MATCHESHeadline probability matches the grid.
goodmodel_behaviorOUTCOME_MATCHES_GRIDOutcome split matches the grid (max diff 0.0011).
goodmodel_behaviorMARKETS_MATCH_GRIDMarkets match the grid (max diff 0.0021).
goodintegrityWINNER_IS_VALID_TEAMDraw predicted (no single winner named), consistent with the headline score / match_resolution.
goodmodel_behaviorLAMBDA_BOUNDSLambdas in range (home 0.927, away 1.02).
goodprovenanceLAMBDA_FACTORS_PRESENTlambda_factors audit trail present.
goodmodel_behaviorLAMBDA_CONSISTENCYLambda identical across prediction / antagonist / factors.
goodmodel_behaviorCALIBRATION_SCALE_BOUNDSCalibration scale 1.0 in range.
goodintegrityTEAM_GOALS_SUMGetafe: player goals reconcile to team total (0).
goodintegrityTEAM_GOALS_SUMCelta: player goals reconcile to team total (0).
goodstructurePOSSESSION_SUMS_100Possession sums to 100.0%.
goodintegrityPLAYER_STAT_REALISMAll 22 projected player lines pass realism checks.
goodstructureEXACTLY_ONE_GOALKEEPERGetafe: exactly one goalkeeper (David Soria).
goodintegrityTEAM_SHOTS_CAPGetafe: 12 projected shots inside the realistic envelope.
goodstructureEXACTLY_ONE_GOALKEEPERCelta: exactly one goalkeeper (Ionuț Radu).
goodintegrityTEAM_SHOTS_CAPCelta: 11 projected shots inside the realistic envelope.
goodprovenanceSTANDING_AVAILABLELeague-standing context available for both sides.
goodprovenanceRANKING_PROVENANCE22/22 starters carry a ranking source.
goodprovenancePREGAME_TOTAL_CONSISTENTPregame total 1.95 ~ Poisson total 1.95.
Notes (1)
SevCategoryRuleMessageValueExpected
infomodel_behaviorMODAL_OUTCOME_IS_DRAWHeadline is a draw, but the largest outcome bucket is away_win (0.3665); aggregate probability leans to Celta.0.3665

Rule catalogue

RuleDescriptionTriggered
SCHEMA_KEYS_PRESENTAll required top-level sections exist in the artifact.ok
LINEUP_ELEVENEach side fields exactly 11 starters.ok
FORMATION_VALIDFormation string parses and its outfield lines sum to 10.ok
POSSESSION_SUMS_100Estimated possession of both teams sums to ~100%.ok
TEAM_GOALS_SUMPlayers' projected integer goals sum to the team's headline score.ok
TEAM_TOTALS_SCORE_MATCHteam_totals.projected_goals equals the headline score component.ok
TEAM_EG_LAMBDA_MATCHteam_totals.expected_goals matches the team's Poisson lambda.ok
PLAYER_STAT_REALISMProjected player lines are internally consistent (xG<=shots, accurate<=total passes, minutes/rating in range).ok
EXACTLY_ONE_GOALKEEPEREach starting XI fields exactly one goalkeeper.ok
SHOT_MATH_INTEGRITYShot components are physically consistent (on target <= total, on+off <= total; blocked shots cannot be negative).10 problems
PLAYER_MINUTES_LEAGUE_CAPNo player projects more minutes than the competition clock allows (90 + stoppage, or extra time in cups).ok
TEAM_SHOTS_CAPTeam projected shots stay inside the realistic historical envelope (~35).ok
OUTCOME_SUMS_ONEhome_win + draw + away_win sums to 1.ok
MARKETS_COMPLEMENTARYOver/Under and BTTS pairs each sum to 1.ok
GRID_SUMS_ONEThe scoreline probability grid sums to ~1.ok
SCORELINE_PROBS_NONNEGEvery scoreline probability is a valid [0,1] value.ok
GRID_REPRODUCIBLEThe reported scoreline grid is reproducible from the lambdas.ok
MOST_LIKELY_IS_MODEThe headline most-likely score is the distribution's modal scoreline.ok
MLS_PROBABILITY_MATCHESmost_likely_score_probability equals the grid value of that score.ok
OUTCOME_MATCHES_GRIDThe reported win/draw/loss split is derivable from the grid.ok
MARKETS_MATCH_GRIDThe reported Over/Under and BTTS are derivable from the grid.ok
WINNER_MATCHES_SCOREpredicted_winner agrees with the headline score direction.ok
WINNER_PROBABILITY_DIRECTIONpredicted_winner is the team with the higher win probability.ok
WINNER_IS_VALID_TEAMpredicted_winner names a participating team (or Draw).ok
MODAL_OUTCOME_IS_DRAWDraw is the single largest outcome bucket while a team is named.ok
LAMBDA_BOUNDSBoth lambdas fall inside the engine's [0.55, 5.00] envelope.ok
LAMBDA_CONSISTENCYThe lambda is identical across prediction / antagonist / lambda_factors.ok
LAMBDA_FACTORS_PRESENTThe lambda_factors decomposition (audit trail) is present.ok
CALIBRATION_SCALE_BOUNDScompetition_calibration_scale stays within [0.85, 1.35].ok
CALIBRATION_RECORDEDWhen calibration ran, the pre-calibration lambdas are recorded.ok
STANDING_AVAILABLELeague-standing context is available for a domestic fixture.ok
RANKING_PROVENANCEPlayer ranking/quality signals carry a recognised source.ok
DATA_DEPTHStarters have enough recent games to model rather than synthesise.1 problems
FBREF_PRIORS_ACTIVEFBref season-prior files exist so that branch is not silently inert.ok
PREGAME_DIRECTION_AGREESThe pregame fair-line favorite agrees with the model winner.ok
PREGAME_TOTAL_CONSISTENTThe pregame expected total is close to the sum of the lambdas.ok
RESULT_WINNER_HITThe predicted winner matched the real result.ok
RESULT_EXACT_SCORE_HITThe headline score matched the real scoreline exactly.ok
RESULT_OU_HITThe Over/Under 2.5 lean matched reality.ok
RESULT_BTTS_HITThe BTTS lean matched reality.ok
RESULT_CONFIDENT_MISSA high-confidence prediction did not reach the real outcome.ok
OUTCOME_BRIERBrier score of the win/draw/loss probabilities vs the real result.ok
Generated 2026-09-07 13:31:51 UTC · Soccer prediction reporting