Soccer prediction system deep audit

Slate 20260912 · immutable forensic review of 11 match prediction artifact(s)

Executive conclusion

In 7 match(es) the headline score is not the distribution's modal scoreline (decisive-score substitution or a selection issue) — see the MOST_LIKELY_IS_MODE findings.

At a glance

11matches audited

0critical

0errors

4warnings

0grid non-reproducible

7headline != modal

0winner disagreements

0lambda inconsistencies

0with real result

-winner hit-rate

-decisive hit-rate

9%predicted draws

-actual draws

0confident misses

-mean Brier

Matches

R. Racing Club vs Alavés

20260912_ALA@SAN · LaLiga

WARNINGS risk 10 pred 0-1 (Alavés)λ 1.02 / 1.11conf 0.62 warning 1 info 1 good 38

Problems (1)

Sev	Category	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
warning	provenance	`FBREF_PRIORS_ACTIVE`	FBref dataset files not found; team priors inactive.

Lambda evolution (audit trail)

Stage	Home λ	Away λ
Pre-competitive-floor	0.898	1.111
Pre-calibration	0.898	1.111
Final	1.020	1.111

competition_calibration_scale: 1.0competition_observed_total_goals: 0.0quality_gap_applied: Truemismatch_score_pressure_applied: Falsecompetitive_underdog_floor_applied: Truestage_discount: 1.0

Scoreline distribution

Top scorelines	P
0-1	13.1%
1-1	13.6%
0-0	12.0%
1-0	12.0%
1-2	7.5%

Outcome — home 32.7% · draw 29.9% · away 37.4%

Markets — O2.5 35.9% · BTTS 43.0%

Passed checks (38)

Sev	Category	Rule	Message
good	integrity	`SCHEMA_KEYS_PRESENT`	All required sections present.
good	structure	`LINEUP_ELEVEN`	R. Racing Club: 11 starters.
good	structure	`FORMATION_VALID`	R. Racing Club: formation 4-2-3-1 valid.
good	structure	`LINEUP_ELEVEN`	Alavés: 11 starters.
good	structure	`FORMATION_VALID`	Alavés: formation 5-3-2 valid.
good	probability	`OUTCOME_SUMS_ONE`	outcome sums to 1.0000.
good	probability	`MARKETS_COMPLEMENTARY`	Over/Under and BTTS pairs each sum to 1.
good	probability	`SCORELINE_PROBS_NONNEG`	All scoreline probabilities within [0,1].
good	probability	`GRID_SUMS_ONE`	scoreline grid sums to 0.9972.
good	model_behavior	`GRID_REPRODUCIBLE`	Grid reproducible from lambdas (max cell diff 0.0013).
good	probability	`MLS_PROBABILITY_MATCHES`	Headline probability matches the grid.
good	model_behavior	`OUTCOME_MATCHES_GRID`	Outcome split matches the grid (max diff 0.0015).
good	model_behavior	`MARKETS_MATCH_GRID`	Markets match the grid (max diff 0.0028).
good	integrity	`WINNER_IS_VALID_TEAM`	predicted_winner 'Alavés' is a participating side.
good	model_behavior	`WINNER_MATCHES_SCORE`	Winner agrees with headline score (Alavés).
good	model_behavior	`WINNER_PROBABILITY_DIRECTION`	Winner matches the win-probability favorite (Alavés).
good	model_behavior	`LAMBDA_BOUNDS`	Lambdas in range (home 1.02, away 1.111).
good	provenance	`LAMBDA_FACTORS_PRESENT`	lambda_factors audit trail present.
good	model_behavior	`LAMBDA_CONSISTENCY`	Lambda identical across prediction / antagonist / factors.
good	model_behavior	`CALIBRATION_SCALE_BOUNDS`	Calibration scale 1.0 in range.
good	provenance	`XGBOOST_REASONING_PRESENT`	Match-level xgboost_reasoning present (XGBoost).
good	model_behavior	`LAMBDA_REASONING_CONSISTENCY`	Lambdas in xgboost_reasoning match final Poisson lambdas (1.02 / 1.111).
good	provenance	`XGBOOST_PLAYER_REASONING`	All 22 starters carry full XGBoost / FBref reasoning.
good	integrity	`TEAM_GOALS_SUM`	R. Racing Club: player goals reconcile to team total (0).
good	integrity	`TEAM_GOALS_SUM`	Alavés: player goals reconcile to team total (1).
good	structure	`POSSESSION_SUMS_100`	Possession sums to 100.0%.
good	integrity	`PLAYER_STAT_REALISM`	All 22 projected player lines pass realism checks.
good	structure	`EXACTLY_ONE_GOALKEEPER`	R. Racing Club: exactly one goalkeeper (Julen Agirrezabala).
good	integrity	`SHOT_MATH_INTEGRITY`	All 11 projected lines have consistent shot components.
good	integrity	`TEAM_SHOTS_CAP`	R. Racing Club: 17 projected shots inside the realistic envelope.
good	structure	`EXACTLY_ONE_GOALKEEPER`	Alavés: exactly one goalkeeper (Antonio Sivera).
good	integrity	`SHOT_MATH_INTEGRITY`	All 11 projected lines have consistent shot components.
good	integrity	`TEAM_SHOTS_CAP`	Alavés: 14 projected shots inside the realistic envelope.
good	provenance	`STANDING_AVAILABLE`	League-standing context available for both sides.
good	provenance	`RANKING_PROVENANCE`	22/22 starters carry a ranking source.
good	provenance	`DATA_DEPTH`	19/22 starters have adequate recent history.
good	provenance	`PREGAME_DIRECTION_AGREES`	Pregame favorite agrees with the model winner (Alavés).
good	provenance	`PREGAME_TOTAL_CONSISTENT`	Pregame total 2.13 ~ Poisson total 2.13.

Notes (1)

Sev	Category	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
info	model_behavior	`MOST_LIKELY_IS_MODE`	Decisive-score substitution policy: the modal scoreline is a draw 1-1 (p=0.1358); the headline shows the most likely decisive score 0-1 (p=0.1306) for the probability favorite Alavés.	0-1	1-1

Tottenham vs Everton

20260912_EVE@TOT · Premier League

WARNINGS risk 10 pred 0-1 (Everton)λ 1.02 / 1.11conf 0.61 warning 1 info 1 good 38

Problems (1)

Sev	Category	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
warning	provenance	`FBREF_PRIORS_ACTIVE`	FBref dataset files not found; team priors inactive.

Lambda evolution (audit trail)

Stage	Home λ	Away λ
Pre-competitive-floor	1.011	1.112
Pre-calibration	1.011	1.112
Final	1.020	1.112

competition_calibration_scale: 1.0competition_observed_total_goals: 0.0quality_gap_applied: Truemismatch_score_pressure_applied: Falsecompetitive_underdog_floor_applied: Truestage_discount: 1.0

Scoreline distribution

Top scorelines	P
0-1	13.1%
1-1	13.6%
0-0	12.0%
1-0	12.0%
1-2	7.5%

Outcome — home 32.7% · draw 29.9% · away 37.4%

Markets — O2.5 35.9% · BTTS 43.0%

Passed checks (38)

Sev	Category	Rule	Message
good	integrity	`SCHEMA_KEYS_PRESENT`	All required sections present.
good	structure	`LINEUP_ELEVEN`	Tottenham: 11 starters.
good	structure	`FORMATION_VALID`	Tottenham: formation 4-2-3-1 valid.
good	structure	`LINEUP_ELEVEN`	Everton: 11 starters.
good	structure	`FORMATION_VALID`	Everton: formation 4-2-3-1 valid.
good	probability	`OUTCOME_SUMS_ONE`	outcome sums to 1.0000.
good	probability	`MARKETS_COMPLEMENTARY`	Over/Under and BTTS pairs each sum to 1.
good	probability	`SCORELINE_PROBS_NONNEG`	All scoreline probabilities within [0,1].
good	probability	`GRID_SUMS_ONE`	scoreline grid sums to 0.9971.
good	model_behavior	`GRID_REPRODUCIBLE`	Grid reproducible from lambdas (max cell diff 0.0013).
good	probability	`MLS_PROBABILITY_MATCHES`	Headline probability matches the grid.
good	model_behavior	`OUTCOME_MATCHES_GRID`	Outcome split matches the grid (max diff 0.0015).
good	model_behavior	`MARKETS_MATCH_GRID`	Markets match the grid (max diff 0.0029).
good	integrity	`WINNER_IS_VALID_TEAM`	predicted_winner 'Everton' is a participating side.
good	model_behavior	`WINNER_MATCHES_SCORE`	Winner agrees with headline score (Everton).
good	model_behavior	`WINNER_PROBABILITY_DIRECTION`	Winner matches the win-probability favorite (Everton).
good	model_behavior	`LAMBDA_BOUNDS`	Lambdas in range (home 1.02, away 1.112).
good	provenance	`LAMBDA_FACTORS_PRESENT`	lambda_factors audit trail present.
good	model_behavior	`LAMBDA_CONSISTENCY`	Lambda identical across prediction / antagonist / factors.
good	model_behavior	`CALIBRATION_SCALE_BOUNDS`	Calibration scale 1.0 in range.
good	provenance	`XGBOOST_REASONING_PRESENT`	Match-level xgboost_reasoning present (XGBoost).
good	model_behavior	`LAMBDA_REASONING_CONSISTENCY`	Lambdas in xgboost_reasoning match final Poisson lambdas (1.02 / 1.112).
good	provenance	`XGBOOST_PLAYER_REASONING`	All 22 starters carry full XGBoost / FBref reasoning.
good	integrity	`TEAM_GOALS_SUM`	Tottenham: player goals reconcile to team total (0).
good	integrity	`TEAM_GOALS_SUM`	Everton: player goals reconcile to team total (1).
good	structure	`POSSESSION_SUMS_100`	Possession sums to 100.0%.
good	integrity	`PLAYER_STAT_REALISM`	All 22 projected player lines pass realism checks.
good	structure	`EXACTLY_ONE_GOALKEEPER`	Tottenham: exactly one goalkeeper (Antonín Kinský).
good	integrity	`SHOT_MATH_INTEGRITY`	All 11 projected lines have consistent shot components.
good	integrity	`TEAM_SHOTS_CAP`	Tottenham: 19 projected shots inside the realistic envelope.
good	structure	`EXACTLY_ONE_GOALKEEPER`	Everton: exactly one goalkeeper (Jordan Pickford).
good	integrity	`SHOT_MATH_INTEGRITY`	All 11 projected lines have consistent shot components.
good	integrity	`TEAM_SHOTS_CAP`	Everton: 18 projected shots inside the realistic envelope.
good	provenance	`STANDING_AVAILABLE`	League-standing context available for both sides.
good	provenance	`RANKING_PROVENANCE`	22/22 starters carry a ranking source.
good	provenance	`DATA_DEPTH`	17/22 starters have adequate recent history.
good	provenance	`PREGAME_DIRECTION_AGREES`	Pregame favorite agrees with the model winner (Everton).
good	provenance	`PREGAME_TOTAL_CONSISTENT`	Pregame total 2.13 ~ Poisson total 2.13.

Notes (1)

Sev	Category	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
info	model_behavior	`MOST_LIKELY_IS_MODE`	Decisive-score substitution policy: the modal scoreline is a draw 1-1 (p=0.1358); the headline shows the most likely decisive score 0-1 (p=0.1306) for the probability favorite Everton.	0-1	1-1

Crystal Palace vs Ipswich

20260912_IPS@CRY · Premier League

WARNINGS risk 10 pred 2-1 (Crystal Palace)λ 1.70 / 1.37conf 0.64 warning 1 info 1 good 38

Problems (1)

Sev	Category	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
warning	provenance	`FBREF_PRIORS_ACTIVE`	FBref dataset files not found; team priors inactive.

Lambda evolution (audit trail)

Stage	Home λ	Away λ
Pre-competitive-floor	1.698	1.374
Pre-calibration	1.698	1.374
Final	1.698	1.374

competition_calibration_scale: 1.0competition_observed_total_goals: 0.0quality_gap_applied: Truemismatch_score_pressure_applied: Falsecompetitive_underdog_floor_applied: Falsestage_discount: 1.0

Scoreline distribution

Top scorelines	P
2-1	9.2%
1-1	10.9%
1-0	7.8%
1-2	7.4%
2-0	6.7%

Outcome — home 45.1% · draw 23.8% · away 31.1%

Markets — O2.5 59.3% · BTTS 61.1%

Passed checks (38)

Sev	Category	Rule	Message
good	integrity	`SCHEMA_KEYS_PRESENT`	All required sections present.
good	structure	`LINEUP_ELEVEN`	Crystal Palace: 11 starters.
good	structure	`FORMATION_VALID`	Crystal Palace: formation 3-4-2-1 valid.
good	structure	`LINEUP_ELEVEN`	Ipswich: 11 starters.
good	structure	`FORMATION_VALID`	Ipswich: formation 4-2-3-1 valid.
good	probability	`OUTCOME_SUMS_ONE`	outcome sums to 1.0000.
good	probability	`MARKETS_COMPLEMENTARY`	Over/Under and BTTS pairs each sum to 1.
good	probability	`SCORELINE_PROBS_NONNEG`	All scoreline probabilities within [0,1].
good	probability	`GRID_SUMS_ONE`	scoreline grid sums to 0.9963.
good	model_behavior	`GRID_REPRODUCIBLE`	Grid reproducible from lambdas (max cell diff 0.0008).
good	probability	`MLS_PROBABILITY_MATCHES`	Headline probability matches the grid.
good	model_behavior	`OUTCOME_MATCHES_GRID`	Outcome split matches the grid (max diff 0.0018).
good	model_behavior	`MARKETS_MATCH_GRID`	Markets match the grid (max diff 0.0037).
good	integrity	`WINNER_IS_VALID_TEAM`	predicted_winner 'Crystal Palace' is a participating side.
good	model_behavior	`WINNER_MATCHES_SCORE`	Winner agrees with headline score (Crystal Palace).
good	model_behavior	`WINNER_PROBABILITY_DIRECTION`	Winner matches the win-probability favorite (Crystal Palace).
good	model_behavior	`LAMBDA_BOUNDS`	Lambdas in range (home 1.698, away 1.374).
good	provenance	`LAMBDA_FACTORS_PRESENT`	lambda_factors audit trail present.
good	model_behavior	`LAMBDA_CONSISTENCY`	Lambda identical across prediction / antagonist / factors.
good	model_behavior	`CALIBRATION_SCALE_BOUNDS`	Calibration scale 1.0 in range.
good	provenance	`XGBOOST_REASONING_PRESENT`	Match-level xgboost_reasoning present (XGBoost).
good	model_behavior	`LAMBDA_REASONING_CONSISTENCY`	Lambdas in xgboost_reasoning match final Poisson lambdas (1.698 / 1.374).
good	provenance	`XGBOOST_PLAYER_REASONING`	All 22 starters carry full XGBoost / FBref reasoning.
good	integrity	`TEAM_GOALS_SUM`	Crystal Palace: player goals reconcile to team total (2).
good	integrity	`TEAM_GOALS_SUM`	Ipswich: player goals reconcile to team total (1).
good	structure	`POSSESSION_SUMS_100`	Possession sums to 100.0%.
good	integrity	`PLAYER_STAT_REALISM`	All 22 projected player lines pass realism checks.
good	structure	`EXACTLY_ONE_GOALKEEPER`	Crystal Palace: exactly one goalkeeper (Dean Henderson).
good	integrity	`SHOT_MATH_INTEGRITY`	All 11 projected lines have consistent shot components.
good	integrity	`TEAM_SHOTS_CAP`	Crystal Palace: 16 projected shots inside the realistic envelope.
good	structure	`EXACTLY_ONE_GOALKEEPER`	Ipswich: exactly one goalkeeper (Kjell Scherpen).
good	integrity	`SHOT_MATH_INTEGRITY`	All 11 projected lines have consistent shot components.
good	integrity	`TEAM_SHOTS_CAP`	Ipswich: 15 projected shots inside the realistic envelope.
good	provenance	`STANDING_AVAILABLE`	League-standing context available for both sides.
good	provenance	`RANKING_PROVENANCE`	22/22 starters carry a ranking source.
good	provenance	`DATA_DEPTH`	19/22 starters have adequate recent history.
good	provenance	`PREGAME_DIRECTION_AGREES`	Pregame favorite agrees with the model winner (Crystal Palace).
good	provenance	`PREGAME_TOTAL_CONSISTENT`	Pregame total 3.07 ~ Poisson total 3.07.

Notes (1)

Sev	Category	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
info	model_behavior	`MOST_LIKELY_IS_MODE`	Decisive-score substitution policy: the modal scoreline is a draw 1-1 (p=0.1089); the headline shows the most likely decisive score 2-1 (p=0.0918) for the probability favorite Crystal Palace.	2-1	1-1

Aston Villa vs Forest

20260912_NFO@AVL · Premier League

WARNINGS risk 10 pred 1-1 ()λ 1.02 / 0.98conf 0.61 warning 1 info 1 good 36

Problems (1)

Sev	Category	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
warning	provenance	`FBREF_PRIORS_ACTIVE`	FBref dataset files not found; team priors inactive.

Lambda evolution (audit trail)

Stage	Home λ	Away λ
Pre-competitive-floor	0.976	0.983
Pre-calibration	0.976	0.983
Final	1.020	0.983

competition_calibration_scale: 1.0competition_observed_total_goals: 0.0quality_gap_applied: Truemismatch_score_pressure_applied: Falsecompetitive_underdog_floor_applied: Truestage_discount: 1.0

Scoreline distribution

Top scorelines	P
1-1	13.7%
1-0	13.6%
0-0	13.6%
0-1	13.1%
2-0	7.0%

Outcome — home 35.4% · draw 31.1% · away 33.5%

Markets — O2.5 32.4% · BTTS 40.2%

Passed checks (36)

Sev	Category	Rule	Message
good	integrity	`SCHEMA_KEYS_PRESENT`	All required sections present.
good	structure	`LINEUP_ELEVEN`	Aston Villa: 11 starters.
good	structure	`FORMATION_VALID`	Aston Villa: formation 4-2-3-1 valid.
good	structure	`LINEUP_ELEVEN`	Forest: 11 starters.
good	structure	`FORMATION_VALID`	Forest: formation 3-4-2-1 valid.
good	probability	`OUTCOME_SUMS_ONE`	outcome sums to 1.0000.
good	probability	`MARKETS_COMPLEMENTARY`	Over/Under and BTTS pairs each sum to 1.
good	probability	`SCORELINE_PROBS_NONNEG`	All scoreline probabilities within [0,1].
good	probability	`GRID_SUMS_ONE`	scoreline grid sums to 0.9981.
good	model_behavior	`GRID_REPRODUCIBLE`	Grid reproducible from lambdas (max cell diff 0.0014).
good	model_behavior	`MOST_LIKELY_IS_MODE`	Headline score 1-1 is the modal scoreline.
good	probability	`MLS_PROBABILITY_MATCHES`	Headline probability matches the grid.
good	model_behavior	`OUTCOME_MATCHES_GRID`	Outcome split matches the grid (max diff 0.0009).
good	model_behavior	`MARKETS_MATCH_GRID`	Markets match the grid (max diff 0.0019).
good	integrity	`WINNER_IS_VALID_TEAM`	Draw predicted (no single winner named), consistent with the headline score / match_resolution.
good	model_behavior	`LAMBDA_BOUNDS`	Lambdas in range (home 1.02, away 0.983).
good	provenance	`LAMBDA_FACTORS_PRESENT`	lambda_factors audit trail present.
good	model_behavior	`LAMBDA_CONSISTENCY`	Lambda identical across prediction / antagonist / factors.
good	model_behavior	`CALIBRATION_SCALE_BOUNDS`	Calibration scale 1.0 in range.
good	provenance	`XGBOOST_REASONING_PRESENT`	Match-level xgboost_reasoning present (XGBoost).
good	model_behavior	`LAMBDA_REASONING_CONSISTENCY`	Lambdas in xgboost_reasoning match final Poisson lambdas (1.02 / 0.983).
good	provenance	`XGBOOST_PLAYER_REASONING`	All 22 starters carry full XGBoost / FBref reasoning.
good	integrity	`TEAM_GOALS_SUM`	Aston Villa: player goals reconcile to team total (1).
good	integrity	`TEAM_GOALS_SUM`	Forest: player goals reconcile to team total (1).
good	structure	`POSSESSION_SUMS_100`	Possession sums to 100.0%.
good	integrity	`PLAYER_STAT_REALISM`	All 22 projected player lines pass realism checks.
good	structure	`EXACTLY_ONE_GOALKEEPER`	Aston Villa: exactly one goalkeeper (Zion Suzuki).
good	integrity	`SHOT_MATH_INTEGRITY`	All 11 projected lines have consistent shot components.
good	integrity	`TEAM_SHOTS_CAP`	Aston Villa: 14 projected shots inside the realistic envelope.
good	structure	`EXACTLY_ONE_GOALKEEPER`	Forest: exactly one goalkeeper (Matz Sels).
good	integrity	`SHOT_MATH_INTEGRITY`	All 11 projected lines have consistent shot components.
good	integrity	`TEAM_SHOTS_CAP`	Forest: 17 projected shots inside the realistic envelope.
good	provenance	`STANDING_AVAILABLE`	League-standing context available for both sides.
good	provenance	`RANKING_PROVENANCE`	22/22 starters carry a ranking source.
good	provenance	`DATA_DEPTH`	17/22 starters have adequate recent history.
good	provenance	`PREGAME_TOTAL_CONSISTENT`	Pregame total 2.00 ~ Poisson total 2.00.

Notes (1)

Sev	Category	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
info	model_behavior	`MODAL_OUTCOME_IS_DRAW`	Headline is a draw, but the largest outcome bucket is home_win (0.3543); aggregate probability leans to Aston Villa.	0.3543

Sunderland vs Arsenal

20260912_ARS@SUN · Premier League

CLEAN risk 0 pred 0-1 (Arsenal)λ 1.05 / 1.84conf 0.67 info 1 good 39

Problems (0)

none

Lambda evolution (audit trail)

Stage	Home λ	Away λ
Pre-mismatch	0.866	1.642
Pre-competitive-floor	0.835	1.839
Pre-calibration	0.866	1.642
Final	1.050	1.839

competition_calibration_scale: 1.0competition_observed_total_goals: 0.0quality_gap_applied: Truemismatch_score_pressure_applied: Truecompetitive_underdog_floor_applied: Truestage_discount: 1.0

Scoreline distribution

Top scorelines	P
0-1	10.2%
1-1	10.8%
1-2	9.9%
0-2	9.4%
1-3	6.1%

Outcome — home 21.3% · draw 22.9% · away 55.8%

Markets — O2.5 55.1% · BTTS 54.7%

Passed checks (39)

Sev	Category	Rule	Message
good	integrity	`SCHEMA_KEYS_PRESENT`	All required sections present.
good	structure	`LINEUP_ELEVEN`	Sunderland: 11 starters.
good	structure	`FORMATION_VALID`	Sunderland: formation 4-2-3-1 valid.
good	structure	`LINEUP_ELEVEN`	Arsenal: 11 starters.
good	structure	`FORMATION_VALID`	Arsenal: formation 4-2-3-1 valid.
good	probability	`OUTCOME_SUMS_ONE`	outcome sums to 1.0000.
good	probability	`MARKETS_COMPLEMENTARY`	Over/Under and BTTS pairs each sum to 1.
good	probability	`SCORELINE_PROBS_NONNEG`	All scoreline probabilities within [0,1].
good	probability	`GRID_SUMS_ONE`	scoreline grid sums to 0.9970.
good	model_behavior	`GRID_REPRODUCIBLE`	Grid reproducible from lambdas (max cell diff 0.0007).
good	probability	`MLS_PROBABILITY_MATCHES`	Headline probability matches the grid.
good	model_behavior	`OUTCOME_MATCHES_GRID`	Outcome split matches the grid (max diff 0.0019).
good	model_behavior	`MARKETS_MATCH_GRID`	Markets match the grid (max diff 0.0031).
good	integrity	`WINNER_IS_VALID_TEAM`	predicted_winner 'Arsenal' is a participating side.
good	model_behavior	`WINNER_MATCHES_SCORE`	Winner agrees with headline score (Arsenal).
good	model_behavior	`WINNER_PROBABILITY_DIRECTION`	Winner matches the win-probability favorite (Arsenal).
good	model_behavior	`LAMBDA_BOUNDS`	Lambdas in range (home 1.05, away 1.839).
good	provenance	`LAMBDA_FACTORS_PRESENT`	lambda_factors audit trail present.
good	model_behavior	`LAMBDA_CONSISTENCY`	Lambda identical across prediction / antagonist / factors.
good	model_behavior	`CALIBRATION_SCALE_BOUNDS`	Calibration scale 1.0 in range.
good	provenance	`XGBOOST_REASONING_PRESENT`	Match-level xgboost_reasoning present (XGBoost).
good	model_behavior	`LAMBDA_REASONING_CONSISTENCY`	Lambdas in xgboost_reasoning match final Poisson lambdas (1.05 / 1.839).
good	provenance	`FBREF_PRIORS_ACTIVE`	FBref team priors applied (blend weight 0.192, home E[lambda]=1.481, away E[lambda]=1.481).
good	provenance	`XGBOOST_PLAYER_REASONING`	All 22 starters carry full XGBoost / FBref reasoning.
good	integrity	`TEAM_GOALS_SUM`	Sunderland: player goals reconcile to team total (0).
good	integrity	`TEAM_GOALS_SUM`	Arsenal: player goals reconcile to team total (1).
good	structure	`POSSESSION_SUMS_100`	Possession sums to 100.0%.
good	integrity	`PLAYER_STAT_REALISM`	All 22 projected player lines pass realism checks.
good	structure	`EXACTLY_ONE_GOALKEEPER`	Sunderland: exactly one goalkeeper (Robin Roefs).
good	integrity	`SHOT_MATH_INTEGRITY`	All 11 projected lines have consistent shot components.
good	integrity	`TEAM_SHOTS_CAP`	Sunderland: 14 projected shots inside the realistic envelope.
good	structure	`EXACTLY_ONE_GOALKEEPER`	Arsenal: exactly one goalkeeper (David Raya).
good	integrity	`SHOT_MATH_INTEGRITY`	All 11 projected lines have consistent shot components.
good	integrity	`TEAM_SHOTS_CAP`	Arsenal: 18 projected shots inside the realistic envelope.
good	provenance	`STANDING_AVAILABLE`	League-standing context available for both sides.
good	provenance	`RANKING_PROVENANCE`	22/22 starters carry a ranking source.
good	provenance	`DATA_DEPTH`	19/22 starters have adequate recent history.
good	provenance	`PREGAME_DIRECTION_AGREES`	Pregame favorite agrees with the model winner (Arsenal).
good	provenance	`PREGAME_TOTAL_CONSISTENT`	Pregame total 2.89 ~ Poisson total 2.89.

Notes (1)

Sev	Category	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
info	model_behavior	`MOST_LIKELY_IS_MODE`	Decisive-score substitution policy: the modal scoreline is a draw 1-1 (p=0.1080); the headline shows the most likely decisive score 0-1 (p=0.1017) for the probability favorite Arsenal.	0-1	1-1

Bournemouth vs Brentford

20260912_BRE@BOU · Premier League

CLEAN risk 0 pred 0-1 (Brentford)λ 1.06 / 1.32conf 0.64 info 1 good 39

Problems (0)

none

Lambda evolution (audit trail)

Stage	Home λ	Away λ
Pre-competitive-floor	1.063	1.318
Pre-calibration	1.063	1.318
Final	1.063	1.318

competition_calibration_scale: 1.0competition_observed_total_goals: 0.0quality_gap_applied: Falsemismatch_score_pressure_applied: Falsecompetitive_underdog_floor_applied: Falsestage_discount: 1.0

Scoreline distribution

Top scorelines	P
0-1	12.1%
1-1	13.1%
1-0	9.7%
0-0	9.4%
1-2	8.5%

Outcome — home 29.9% · draw 27.7% · away 42.3%

Markets — O2.5 42.5% · BTTS 48.0%

Passed checks (39)

Sev	Category	Rule	Message
good	integrity	`SCHEMA_KEYS_PRESENT`	All required sections present.
good	structure	`LINEUP_ELEVEN`	Bournemouth: 11 starters.
good	structure	`FORMATION_VALID`	Bournemouth: formation 4-2-3-1 valid.
good	structure	`LINEUP_ELEVEN`	Brentford: 11 starters.
good	structure	`FORMATION_VALID`	Brentford: formation 4-2-3-1 valid.
good	probability	`OUTCOME_SUMS_ONE`	outcome sums to 1.0000.
good	probability	`MARKETS_COMPLEMENTARY`	Over/Under and BTTS pairs each sum to 1.
good	probability	`SCORELINE_PROBS_NONNEG`	All scoreline probabilities within [0,1].
good	probability	`GRID_SUMS_ONE`	scoreline grid sums to 0.9975.
good	model_behavior	`GRID_REPRODUCIBLE`	Grid reproducible from lambdas (max cell diff 0.0012).
good	probability	`MLS_PROBABILITY_MATCHES`	Headline probability matches the grid.
good	model_behavior	`OUTCOME_MATCHES_GRID`	Outcome split matches the grid (max diff 0.0014).
good	model_behavior	`MARKETS_MATCH_GRID`	Markets match the grid (max diff 0.0024).
good	integrity	`WINNER_IS_VALID_TEAM`	predicted_winner 'Brentford' is a participating side.
good	model_behavior	`WINNER_MATCHES_SCORE`	Winner agrees with headline score (Brentford).
good	model_behavior	`WINNER_PROBABILITY_DIRECTION`	Winner matches the win-probability favorite (Brentford).
good	model_behavior	`LAMBDA_BOUNDS`	Lambdas in range (home 1.063, away 1.318).
good	provenance	`LAMBDA_FACTORS_PRESENT`	lambda_factors audit trail present.
good	model_behavior	`LAMBDA_CONSISTENCY`	Lambda identical across prediction / antagonist / factors.
good	model_behavior	`CALIBRATION_SCALE_BOUNDS`	Calibration scale 1.0 in range.
good	provenance	`XGBOOST_REASONING_PRESENT`	Match-level xgboost_reasoning present (XGBoost).
good	model_behavior	`LAMBDA_REASONING_CONSISTENCY`	Lambdas in xgboost_reasoning match final Poisson lambdas (1.063 / 1.318).
good	provenance	`FBREF_PRIORS_ACTIVE`	FBref team priors applied (blend weight 0.192, home E[lambda]=1.481, away E[lambda]=1.481).
good	provenance	`XGBOOST_PLAYER_REASONING`	All 22 starters carry full XGBoost / FBref reasoning.
good	integrity	`TEAM_GOALS_SUM`	Bournemouth: player goals reconcile to team total (0).
good	integrity	`TEAM_GOALS_SUM`	Brentford: player goals reconcile to team total (1).
good	structure	`POSSESSION_SUMS_100`	Possession sums to 100.0%.
good	integrity	`PLAYER_STAT_REALISM`	All 22 projected player lines pass realism checks.
good	structure	`EXACTLY_ONE_GOALKEEPER`	Bournemouth: exactly one goalkeeper (Đorđe Petrović).
good	integrity	`SHOT_MATH_INTEGRITY`	All 11 projected lines have consistent shot components.
good	integrity	`TEAM_SHOTS_CAP`	Bournemouth: 17 projected shots inside the realistic envelope.
good	structure	`EXACTLY_ONE_GOALKEEPER`	Brentford: exactly one goalkeeper (Caoimhin Kelleher).
good	integrity	`SHOT_MATH_INTEGRITY`	All 11 projected lines have consistent shot components.
good	integrity	`TEAM_SHOTS_CAP`	Brentford: 26 projected shots inside the realistic envelope.
good	provenance	`STANDING_AVAILABLE`	League-standing context available for both sides.
good	provenance	`RANKING_PROVENANCE`	22/22 starters carry a ranking source.
good	provenance	`DATA_DEPTH`	21/22 starters have adequate recent history.
good	provenance	`PREGAME_DIRECTION_AGREES`	Pregame favorite agrees with the model winner (Brentford).
good	provenance	`PREGAME_TOTAL_CONSISTENT`	Pregame total 2.38 ~ Poisson total 2.38.

Notes (1)

Sev	Category	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
info	model_behavior	`MOST_LIKELY_IS_MODE`	Decisive-score substitution policy: the modal scoreline is a draw 1-1 (p=0.1307); the headline shows the most likely decisive score 0-1 (p=0.1207) for the probability favorite Brentford.	0-1	1-1

Athletic Club vs Elche

20260912_ELC@ATH · LaLiga

CLEAN risk 0 pred 1-0 (Athletic Club)λ 1.65 / 1.05conf 0.67 info 1 good 39

Problems (0)

none

Lambda evolution (audit trail)

Stage	Home λ	Away λ
Pre-competitive-floor	1.649	0.841
Pre-calibration	1.649	0.841
Final	1.649	1.050

competition_calibration_scale: 1.0competition_observed_total_goals: 0.0quality_gap_applied: Truemismatch_score_pressure_applied: Falsecompetitive_underdog_floor_applied: Truestage_discount: 1.0

Scoreline distribution

Top scorelines	P
1-0	11.0%
1-1	11.7%
2-1	9.6%
2-0	9.2%
0-1	7.0%

Outcome — home 51.3% · draw 24.7% · away 24.1%

Markets — O2.5 50.6% · BTTS 52.6%

Passed checks (39)

Sev	Category	Rule	Message
good	integrity	`SCHEMA_KEYS_PRESENT`	All required sections present.
good	structure	`LINEUP_ELEVEN`	Athletic Club: 11 starters.
good	structure	`FORMATION_VALID`	Athletic Club: formation 4-2-3-1 valid.
good	structure	`LINEUP_ELEVEN`	Elche: 11 starters.
good	structure	`FORMATION_VALID`	Elche: formation 5-3-2 valid.
good	probability	`OUTCOME_SUMS_ONE`	outcome sums to 1.0000.
good	probability	`MARKETS_COMPLEMENTARY`	Over/Under and BTTS pairs each sum to 1.
good	probability	`SCORELINE_PROBS_NONNEG`	All scoreline probabilities within [0,1].
good	probability	`GRID_SUMS_ONE`	scoreline grid sums to 0.9964.
good	model_behavior	`GRID_REPRODUCIBLE`	Grid reproducible from lambdas (max cell diff 0.0009).
good	probability	`MLS_PROBABILITY_MATCHES`	Headline probability matches the grid.
good	model_behavior	`OUTCOME_MATCHES_GRID`	Outcome split matches the grid (max diff 0.0024).
good	model_behavior	`MARKETS_MATCH_GRID`	Markets match the grid (max diff 0.0036).
good	integrity	`WINNER_IS_VALID_TEAM`	predicted_winner 'Athletic Club' is a participating side.
good	model_behavior	`WINNER_MATCHES_SCORE`	Winner agrees with headline score (Athletic Club).
good	model_behavior	`WINNER_PROBABILITY_DIRECTION`	Winner matches the win-probability favorite (Athletic Club).
good	model_behavior	`LAMBDA_BOUNDS`	Lambdas in range (home 1.649, away 1.05).
good	provenance	`LAMBDA_FACTORS_PRESENT`	lambda_factors audit trail present.
good	model_behavior	`LAMBDA_CONSISTENCY`	Lambda identical across prediction / antagonist / factors.
good	model_behavior	`CALIBRATION_SCALE_BOUNDS`	Calibration scale 1.0 in range.
good	provenance	`XGBOOST_REASONING_PRESENT`	Match-level xgboost_reasoning present (XGBoost).
good	model_behavior	`LAMBDA_REASONING_CONSISTENCY`	Lambdas in xgboost_reasoning match final Poisson lambdas (1.649 / 1.05).
good	provenance	`FBREF_PRIORS_ACTIVE`	FBref team priors applied (blend weight 0.228, home E[lambda]=0.741, away E[lambda]=0.741).
good	provenance	`XGBOOST_PLAYER_REASONING`	All 22 starters carry full XGBoost / FBref reasoning.
good	integrity	`TEAM_GOALS_SUM`	Athletic Club: player goals reconcile to team total (1).
good	integrity	`TEAM_GOALS_SUM`	Elche: player goals reconcile to team total (0).
good	structure	`POSSESSION_SUMS_100`	Possession sums to 100.0%.
good	integrity	`PLAYER_STAT_REALISM`	All 22 projected player lines pass realism checks.
good	structure	`EXACTLY_ONE_GOALKEEPER`	Athletic Club: exactly one goalkeeper (Unai Simón).
good	integrity	`SHOT_MATH_INTEGRITY`	All 11 projected lines have consistent shot components.
good	integrity	`TEAM_SHOTS_CAP`	Athletic Club: 17 projected shots inside the realistic envelope.
good	structure	`EXACTLY_ONE_GOALKEEPER`	Elche: exactly one goalkeeper (Matías Dituro).
good	integrity	`SHOT_MATH_INTEGRITY`	All 11 projected lines have consistent shot components.
good	integrity	`TEAM_SHOTS_CAP`	Elche: 18 projected shots inside the realistic envelope.
good	provenance	`STANDING_AVAILABLE`	League-standing context available for both sides.
good	provenance	`RANKING_PROVENANCE`	22/22 starters carry a ranking source.
good	provenance	`DATA_DEPTH`	19/22 starters have adequate recent history.
good	provenance	`PREGAME_DIRECTION_AGREES`	Pregame favorite agrees with the model winner (Athletic Club).
good	provenance	`PREGAME_TOTAL_CONSISTENT`	Pregame total 2.70 ~ Poisson total 2.70.

Notes (1)

Sev	Category	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
info	model_behavior	`MOST_LIKELY_IS_MODE`	Decisive-score substitution policy: the modal scoreline is a draw 1-1 (p=0.1174); the headline shows the most likely decisive score 1-0 (p=0.1100) for the probability favorite Athletic Club.	1-0	1-1

Osasuna vs Espanyol

20260912_ESP@OSA · LaLiga

CLEAN risk 0 pred 1-0 (Osasuna)λ 1.16 / 1.12conf 0.63 info 1 good 39

Problems (0)

none

Lambda evolution (audit trail)

Stage	Home λ	Away λ
Pre-competitive-floor	1.158	1.125
Pre-calibration	1.158	1.125
Final	1.158	1.125

competition_calibration_scale: 1.0competition_observed_total_goals: 0.0quality_gap_applied: Truemismatch_score_pressure_applied: Falsecompetitive_underdog_floor_applied: Falsestage_discount: 1.0

Scoreline distribution

Top scorelines	P
1-0	11.7%
1-1	13.4%
0-1	11.3%
0-0	10.3%
2-1	7.7%

Outcome — home 36.4% · draw 28.7% · away 34.8%

Markets — O2.5 39.9% · BTTS 46.5%

Passed checks (39)

Sev	Category	Rule	Message
good	integrity	`SCHEMA_KEYS_PRESENT`	All required sections present.
good	structure	`LINEUP_ELEVEN`	Osasuna: 11 starters.
good	structure	`FORMATION_VALID`	Osasuna: formation 4-2-3-1 valid.
good	structure	`LINEUP_ELEVEN`	Espanyol: 11 starters.
good	structure	`FORMATION_VALID`	Espanyol: formation 4-4-2 valid.
good	probability	`OUTCOME_SUMS_ONE`	outcome sums to 1.0000.
good	probability	`MARKETS_COMPLEMENTARY`	Over/Under and BTTS pairs each sum to 1.
good	probability	`SCORELINE_PROBS_NONNEG`	All scoreline probabilities within [0,1].
good	probability	`GRID_SUMS_ONE`	scoreline grid sums to 0.9966.
good	model_behavior	`GRID_REPRODUCIBLE`	Grid reproducible from lambdas (max cell diff 0.0013).
good	probability	`MLS_PROBABILITY_MATCHES`	Headline probability matches the grid.
good	model_behavior	`OUTCOME_MATCHES_GRID`	Outcome split matches the grid (max diff 0.0018).
good	model_behavior	`MARKETS_MATCH_GRID`	Markets match the grid (max diff 0.0034).
good	integrity	`WINNER_IS_VALID_TEAM`	predicted_winner 'Osasuna' is a participating side.
good	model_behavior	`WINNER_MATCHES_SCORE`	Winner agrees with headline score (Osasuna).
good	model_behavior	`WINNER_PROBABILITY_DIRECTION`	Winner matches the win-probability favorite (Osasuna).
good	model_behavior	`LAMBDA_BOUNDS`	Lambdas in range (home 1.158, away 1.125).
good	provenance	`LAMBDA_FACTORS_PRESENT`	lambda_factors audit trail present.
good	model_behavior	`LAMBDA_CONSISTENCY`	Lambda identical across prediction / antagonist / factors.
good	model_behavior	`CALIBRATION_SCALE_BOUNDS`	Calibration scale 1.0 in range.
good	provenance	`XGBOOST_REASONING_PRESENT`	Match-level xgboost_reasoning present (XGBoost).
good	model_behavior	`LAMBDA_REASONING_CONSISTENCY`	Lambdas in xgboost_reasoning match final Poisson lambdas (1.158 / 1.125).
good	provenance	`FBREF_PRIORS_ACTIVE`	FBref team priors applied (blend weight 0.228, home E[lambda]=1.237, away E[lambda]=1.235).
good	provenance	`XGBOOST_PLAYER_REASONING`	All 22 starters carry full XGBoost / FBref reasoning.
good	integrity	`TEAM_GOALS_SUM`	Osasuna: player goals reconcile to team total (1).
good	integrity	`TEAM_GOALS_SUM`	Espanyol: player goals reconcile to team total (0).
good	structure	`POSSESSION_SUMS_100`	Possession sums to 100.0%.
good	integrity	`PLAYER_STAT_REALISM`	All 22 projected player lines pass realism checks.
good	structure	`EXACTLY_ONE_GOALKEEPER`	Osasuna: exactly one goalkeeper (Sergio Herrera).
good	integrity	`SHOT_MATH_INTEGRITY`	All 11 projected lines have consistent shot components.
good	integrity	`TEAM_SHOTS_CAP`	Osasuna: 13 projected shots inside the realistic envelope.
good	structure	`EXACTLY_ONE_GOALKEEPER`	Espanyol: exactly one goalkeeper (Marko Dmitrović).
good	integrity	`SHOT_MATH_INTEGRITY`	All 11 projected lines have consistent shot components.
good	integrity	`TEAM_SHOTS_CAP`	Espanyol: 16 projected shots inside the realistic envelope.
good	provenance	`STANDING_AVAILABLE`	League-standing context available for both sides.
good	provenance	`RANKING_PROVENANCE`	22/22 starters carry a ranking source.
good	provenance	`DATA_DEPTH`	18/22 starters have adequate recent history.
good	provenance	`PREGAME_DIRECTION_AGREES`	Pregame favorite agrees with the model winner (Osasuna).
good	provenance	`PREGAME_TOTAL_CONSISTENT`	Pregame total 2.28 ~ Poisson total 2.28.

Notes (1)

Sev	Category	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
info	model_behavior	`MOST_LIKELY_IS_MODE`	Decisive-score substitution policy: the modal scoreline is a draw 1-1 (p=0.1342); the headline shows the most likely decisive score 1-0 (p=0.1168) for the probability favorite Osasuna.	1-0	1-1

Liverpool vs Fulham

20260912_FUL@LIV · Premier League

CLEAN risk 0 pred 2-0 (Liverpool)λ 2.67 / 0.95conf 0.73 good 40

Problems (0)

none

Lambda evolution (audit trail)

Stage	Home λ	Away λ
Pre-mismatch	2.424	0.981
Pre-calibration	2.424	0.981
Final	2.665	0.954

competition_calibration_scale: 1.0competition_observed_total_goals: 0.0quality_gap_applied: Truemismatch_score_pressure_applied: Truecompetitive_underdog_floor_applied: Falsestage_discount: 1.0

Scoreline distribution

Top scorelines	P
2-0	9.5%
2-1	9.1%
3-0	8.5%
3-1	8.1%
1-0	7.1%

Outcome — home 73.6% · draw 15.3% · away 11.0%

Markets — O2.5 70.0% · BTTS 57.2%

Passed checks (40)

Sev	Category	Rule	Message
good	integrity	`SCHEMA_KEYS_PRESENT`	All required sections present.
good	structure	`LINEUP_ELEVEN`	Liverpool: 11 starters.
good	structure	`FORMATION_VALID`	Liverpool: formation 4-2-3-1 valid.
good	structure	`LINEUP_ELEVEN`	Fulham: 11 starters.
good	structure	`FORMATION_VALID`	Fulham: formation 4-2-3-1 valid.
good	probability	`OUTCOME_SUMS_ONE`	outcome sums to 1.0000.
good	probability	`MARKETS_COMPLEMENTARY`	Over/Under and BTTS pairs each sum to 1.
good	probability	`SCORELINE_PROBS_NONNEG`	All scoreline probabilities within [0,1].
good	probability	`GRID_SUMS_ONE`	scoreline grid sums to 0.9962.
good	model_behavior	`GRID_REPRODUCIBLE`	Grid reproducible from lambdas (max cell diff 0.0003).
good	model_behavior	`MOST_LIKELY_IS_MODE`	Headline score 2-0 is the modal scoreline.
good	probability	`MLS_PROBABILITY_MATCHES`	Headline probability matches the grid.
good	model_behavior	`OUTCOME_MATCHES_GRID`	Outcome split matches the grid (max diff 0.0020).
good	model_behavior	`MARKETS_MATCH_GRID`	Markets match the grid (max diff 0.0038).
good	integrity	`WINNER_IS_VALID_TEAM`	predicted_winner 'Liverpool' is a participating side.
good	model_behavior	`WINNER_MATCHES_SCORE`	Winner agrees with headline score (Liverpool).
good	model_behavior	`WINNER_PROBABILITY_DIRECTION`	Winner matches the win-probability favorite (Liverpool).
good	model_behavior	`LAMBDA_BOUNDS`	Lambdas in range (home 2.665, away 0.954).
good	provenance	`LAMBDA_FACTORS_PRESENT`	lambda_factors audit trail present.
good	model_behavior	`LAMBDA_CONSISTENCY`	Lambda identical across prediction / antagonist / factors.
good	model_behavior	`CALIBRATION_SCALE_BOUNDS`	Calibration scale 1.0 in range.
good	provenance	`XGBOOST_REASONING_PRESENT`	Match-level xgboost_reasoning present (XGBoost).
good	model_behavior	`LAMBDA_REASONING_CONSISTENCY`	Lambdas in xgboost_reasoning match final Poisson lambdas (2.665 / 0.954).
good	provenance	`FBREF_PRIORS_ACTIVE`	FBref team priors applied (blend weight 0.192, home E[lambda]=1.481, away E[lambda]=1.481).
good	provenance	`XGBOOST_PLAYER_REASONING`	All 22 starters carry full XGBoost / FBref reasoning.
good	integrity	`TEAM_GOALS_SUM`	Liverpool: player goals reconcile to team total (2).
good	integrity	`TEAM_GOALS_SUM`	Fulham: player goals reconcile to team total (0).
good	structure	`POSSESSION_SUMS_100`	Possession sums to 100.0%.
good	integrity	`PLAYER_STAT_REALISM`	All 22 projected player lines pass realism checks.
good	structure	`EXACTLY_ONE_GOALKEEPER`	Liverpool: exactly one goalkeeper (Alisson).
good	integrity	`SHOT_MATH_INTEGRITY`	All 11 projected lines have consistent shot components.
good	integrity	`TEAM_SHOTS_CAP`	Liverpool: 17 projected shots inside the realistic envelope.
good	structure	`EXACTLY_ONE_GOALKEEPER`	Fulham: exactly one goalkeeper (Bernd Leno).
good	integrity	`SHOT_MATH_INTEGRITY`	All 11 projected lines have consistent shot components.
good	integrity	`TEAM_SHOTS_CAP`	Fulham: 18 projected shots inside the realistic envelope.
good	provenance	`STANDING_AVAILABLE`	League-standing context available for both sides.
good	provenance	`RANKING_PROVENANCE`	22/22 starters carry a ranking source.
good	provenance	`DATA_DEPTH`	20/22 starters have adequate recent history.
good	provenance	`PREGAME_DIRECTION_AGREES`	Pregame favorite agrees with the model winner (Liverpool).
good	provenance	`PREGAME_TOTAL_CONSISTENT`	Pregame total 3.62 ~ Poisson total 3.62.

Chelsea vs Hull

20260912_HUL@CHE · Premier League

CLEAN risk 0 pred 3-1 (Chelsea)λ 3.82 / 1.22conf 0.75 good 40

Problems (0)

none

Lambda evolution (audit trail)

Stage	Home λ	Away λ
Pre-mismatch	3.242	1.292
Pre-calibration	3.242	1.292
Final	3.821	1.215

competition_calibration_scale: 1.0competition_observed_total_goals: 0.0quality_gap_applied: Truemismatch_score_pressure_applied: Truecompetitive_underdog_floor_applied: Falsestage_discount: 1.0

Scoreline distribution

Top scorelines	P
3-1	7.4%
4-1	7.1%
3-0	6.1%
4-0	5.8%
2-1	5.8%

Outcome — home 83.0% · draw 9.7% · away 7.3%

Markets — O2.5 87.8% · BTTS 68.8%

Passed checks (40)

Sev	Category	Rule	Message
good	integrity	`SCHEMA_KEYS_PRESENT`	All required sections present.
good	structure	`LINEUP_ELEVEN`	Chelsea: 11 starters.
good	structure	`FORMATION_VALID`	Chelsea: formation 3-4-2-1 valid.
good	structure	`LINEUP_ELEVEN`	Hull: 11 starters.
good	structure	`FORMATION_VALID`	Hull: formation 5-4-1 valid.
good	probability	`OUTCOME_SUMS_ONE`	outcome sums to 1.0000.
good	probability	`MARKETS_COMPLEMENTARY`	Over/Under and BTTS pairs each sum to 1.
good	probability	`SCORELINE_PROBS_NONNEG`	All scoreline probabilities within [0,1].
good	probability	`GRID_SUMS_ONE`	scoreline grid sums to 0.9977.
good	model_behavior	`GRID_REPRODUCIBLE`	Grid reproducible from lambdas (max cell diff 0.0005).
good	model_behavior	`MOST_LIKELY_IS_MODE`	Headline score 3-1 is the modal scoreline.
good	probability	`MLS_PROBABILITY_MATCHES`	Headline probability matches the grid.
good	model_behavior	`OUTCOME_MATCHES_GRID`	Outcome split matches the grid (max diff 0.0014).
good	model_behavior	`MARKETS_MATCH_GRID`	Markets match the grid (max diff 0.0023).
good	integrity	`WINNER_IS_VALID_TEAM`	predicted_winner 'Chelsea' is a participating side.
good	model_behavior	`WINNER_MATCHES_SCORE`	Winner agrees with headline score (Chelsea).
good	model_behavior	`WINNER_PROBABILITY_DIRECTION`	Winner matches the win-probability favorite (Chelsea).
good	model_behavior	`LAMBDA_BOUNDS`	Lambdas in range (home 3.821, away 1.215).
good	provenance	`LAMBDA_FACTORS_PRESENT`	lambda_factors audit trail present.
good	model_behavior	`LAMBDA_CONSISTENCY`	Lambda identical across prediction / antagonist / factors.
good	model_behavior	`CALIBRATION_SCALE_BOUNDS`	Calibration scale 1.0 in range.
good	provenance	`XGBOOST_REASONING_PRESENT`	Match-level xgboost_reasoning present (XGBoost).
good	model_behavior	`LAMBDA_REASONING_CONSISTENCY`	Lambdas in xgboost_reasoning match final Poisson lambdas (3.821 / 1.215).
good	provenance	`FBREF_PRIORS_ACTIVE`	FBref team priors applied (blend weight 0.192, home E[lambda]=3.5, away E[lambda]=3.5).
good	provenance	`XGBOOST_PLAYER_REASONING`	All 22 starters carry full XGBoost / FBref reasoning.
good	integrity	`TEAM_GOALS_SUM`	Chelsea: player goals reconcile to team total (3).
good	integrity	`TEAM_GOALS_SUM`	Hull: player goals reconcile to team total (1).
good	structure	`POSSESSION_SUMS_100`	Possession sums to 100.0%.
good	integrity	`PLAYER_STAT_REALISM`	All 22 projected player lines pass realism checks.
good	structure	`EXACTLY_ONE_GOALKEEPER`	Chelsea: exactly one goalkeeper (Emiliano Martínez).
good	integrity	`SHOT_MATH_INTEGRITY`	All 11 projected lines have consistent shot components.
good	integrity	`TEAM_SHOTS_CAP`	Chelsea: 13 projected shots inside the realistic envelope.
good	structure	`EXACTLY_ONE_GOALKEEPER`	Hull: exactly one goalkeeper (Konstantinos Tzolakis).
good	integrity	`SHOT_MATH_INTEGRITY`	All 11 projected lines have consistent shot components.
good	integrity	`TEAM_SHOTS_CAP`	Hull: 14 projected shots inside the realistic envelope.
good	provenance	`STANDING_AVAILABLE`	League-standing context available for both sides.
good	provenance	`RANKING_PROVENANCE`	22/22 starters carry a ranking source.
good	provenance	`DATA_DEPTH`	19/22 starters have adequate recent history.
good	provenance	`PREGAME_DIRECTION_AGREES`	Pregame favorite agrees with the model winner (Chelsea).
good	provenance	`PREGAME_TOTAL_CONSISTENT`	Pregame total 5.04 ~ Poisson total 5.04.

Real Madrid vs Rayo Vallecano

20260912_RAY@RMA · LaLiga

CLEAN risk 0 pred 4-1 (Real Madrid)λ 4.29 / 1.21conf 0.77 good 40

Problems (0)

none

Lambda evolution (audit trail)

Stage	Home λ	Away λ
Pre-mismatch	3.529	1.301
Pre-calibration	3.529	1.301
Final	4.289	1.205

competition_calibration_scale: 1.0competition_observed_total_goals: 0.0quality_gap_applied: Truemismatch_score_pressure_applied: Truecompetitive_underdog_floor_applied: Falsestage_discount: 1.0

Scoreline distribution

Top scorelines	P
4-1	7.1%
3-1	6.6%
5-1	6.1%
4-0	5.9%
3-0	5.5%

Outcome — home 87.1% · draw 7.6% · away 5.3%

Markets — O2.5 91.0% · BTTS 69.1%

Passed checks (40)

Sev	Category	Rule	Message
good	integrity	`SCHEMA_KEYS_PRESENT`	All required sections present.
good	structure	`LINEUP_ELEVEN`	Real Madrid: 11 starters.
good	structure	`FORMATION_VALID`	Real Madrid: formation 4-2-3-1 valid.
good	structure	`LINEUP_ELEVEN`	Rayo Vallecano: 11 starters.
good	structure	`FORMATION_VALID`	Rayo Vallecano: formation 4-3-3 valid.
good	probability	`OUTCOME_SUMS_ONE`	outcome sums to 1.0000.
good	probability	`MARKETS_COMPLEMENTARY`	Over/Under and BTTS pairs each sum to 1.
good	probability	`SCORELINE_PROBS_NONNEG`	All scoreline probabilities within [0,1].
good	probability	`GRID_SUMS_ONE`	scoreline grid sums to 0.9965.
good	model_behavior	`GRID_REPRODUCIBLE`	Grid reproducible from lambdas (max cell diff 0.0009).
good	model_behavior	`MOST_LIKELY_IS_MODE`	Headline score 4-1 is the modal scoreline.
good	probability	`MLS_PROBABILITY_MATCHES`	Headline probability matches the grid.
good	model_behavior	`OUTCOME_MATCHES_GRID`	Outcome split matches the grid (max diff 0.0020).
good	model_behavior	`MARKETS_MATCH_GRID`	Markets match the grid (max diff 0.0034).
good	integrity	`WINNER_IS_VALID_TEAM`	predicted_winner 'Real Madrid' is a participating side.
good	model_behavior	`WINNER_MATCHES_SCORE`	Winner agrees with headline score (Real Madrid).
good	model_behavior	`WINNER_PROBABILITY_DIRECTION`	Winner matches the win-probability favorite (Real Madrid).
good	model_behavior	`LAMBDA_BOUNDS`	Lambdas in range (home 4.289, away 1.205).
good	provenance	`LAMBDA_FACTORS_PRESENT`	lambda_factors audit trail present.
good	model_behavior	`LAMBDA_CONSISTENCY`	Lambda identical across prediction / antagonist / factors.
good	model_behavior	`CALIBRATION_SCALE_BOUNDS`	Calibration scale 1.0 in range.
good	provenance	`XGBOOST_REASONING_PRESENT`	Match-level xgboost_reasoning present (XGBoost).
good	model_behavior	`LAMBDA_REASONING_CONSISTENCY`	Lambdas in xgboost_reasoning match final Poisson lambdas (4.289 / 1.205).
good	provenance	`FBREF_PRIORS_ACTIVE`	FBref team priors applied (blend weight 0.228, home E[lambda]=2.956, away E[lambda]=3.289).
good	provenance	`XGBOOST_PLAYER_REASONING`	All 22 starters carry full XGBoost / FBref reasoning.
good	integrity	`TEAM_GOALS_SUM`	Real Madrid: player goals reconcile to team total (4).
good	integrity	`TEAM_GOALS_SUM`	Rayo Vallecano: player goals reconcile to team total (1).
good	structure	`POSSESSION_SUMS_100`	Possession sums to 100.0%.
good	integrity	`PLAYER_STAT_REALISM`	All 22 projected player lines pass realism checks.
good	structure	`EXACTLY_ONE_GOALKEEPER`	Real Madrid: exactly one goalkeeper (Thibaut Courtois).
good	integrity	`SHOT_MATH_INTEGRITY`	All 11 projected lines have consistent shot components.
good	integrity	`TEAM_SHOTS_CAP`	Real Madrid: 25 projected shots inside the realistic envelope.
good	structure	`EXACTLY_ONE_GOALKEEPER`	Rayo Vallecano: exactly one goalkeeper (Emil Audero).
good	integrity	`SHOT_MATH_INTEGRITY`	All 11 projected lines have consistent shot components.
good	integrity	`TEAM_SHOTS_CAP`	Rayo Vallecano: 16 projected shots inside the realistic envelope.
good	provenance	`STANDING_AVAILABLE`	League-standing context available for both sides.
good	provenance	`RANKING_PROVENANCE`	22/22 starters carry a ranking source.
good	provenance	`DATA_DEPTH`	18/22 starters have adequate recent history.
good	provenance	`PREGAME_DIRECTION_AGREES`	Pregame favorite agrees with the model winner (Real Madrid).
good	provenance	`PREGAME_TOTAL_CONSISTENT`	Pregame total 5.49 ~ Poisson total 5.49.

Rule catalogue

Rule	Description	Triggered
`SCHEMA_KEYS_PRESENT`	All required top-level sections exist in the artifact.	ok
`LINEUP_ELEVEN`	Each side fields exactly 11 starters.	ok
`FORMATION_VALID`	Formation string parses and its outfield lines sum to 10.	ok
`POSSESSION_SUMS_100`	Estimated possession of both teams sums to ~100%.	ok
`TEAM_GOALS_SUM`	Players' projected integer goals sum to the team's headline score.	ok
`TEAM_TOTALS_SCORE_MATCH`	team_totals.projected_goals equals the headline score component.	ok
`TEAM_EG_LAMBDA_MATCH`	team_totals.expected_goals matches the team's Poisson lambda.	ok
`PLAYER_STAT_REALISM`	Projected player lines are internally consistent (xG<=shots, accurate<=total passes, minutes/rating in range).	ok
`EXACTLY_ONE_GOALKEEPER`	Each starting XI fields exactly one goalkeeper.	ok
`SHOT_MATH_INTEGRITY`	Shot components are physically consistent (on target <= total, on+off <= total; blocked shots cannot be negative).	ok
`PLAYER_MINUTES_LEAGUE_CAP`	No player projects more minutes than the competition clock allows (90 + stoppage, or extra time in cups).	ok
`TEAM_SHOTS_CAP`	Team projected shots stay inside the realistic historical envelope (~35).	ok
`OUTCOME_SUMS_ONE`	home_win + draw + away_win sums to 1.	ok
`MARKETS_COMPLEMENTARY`	Over/Under and BTTS pairs each sum to 1.	ok
`GRID_SUMS_ONE`	The scoreline probability grid sums to ~1.	ok
`SCORELINE_PROBS_NONNEG`	Every scoreline probability is a valid [0,1] value.	ok
`GRID_REPRODUCIBLE`	The reported scoreline grid is reproducible from the lambdas.	ok
`MOST_LIKELY_IS_MODE`	The headline most-likely score is the distribution's modal scoreline.	ok
`MLS_PROBABILITY_MATCHES`	most_likely_score_probability equals the grid value of that score.	ok
`OUTCOME_MATCHES_GRID`	The reported win/draw/loss split is derivable from the grid.	ok
`MARKETS_MATCH_GRID`	The reported Over/Under and BTTS are derivable from the grid.	ok
`WINNER_MATCHES_SCORE`	predicted_winner agrees with the headline score direction.	ok
`WINNER_PROBABILITY_DIRECTION`	predicted_winner is the team with the higher win probability.	ok
`WINNER_IS_VALID_TEAM`	predicted_winner names a participating team (or Draw).	ok
`MODAL_OUTCOME_IS_DRAW`	Draw is the single largest outcome bucket while a team is named.	ok
`LAMBDA_BOUNDS`	Both lambdas fall inside the engine's [0.55, 5.00] envelope.	ok
`LAMBDA_CONSISTENCY`	The lambda is identical across prediction / antagonist / lambda_factors.	ok
`LAMBDA_FACTORS_PRESENT`	The lambda_factors decomposition (audit trail) is present.	ok
`CALIBRATION_SCALE_BOUNDS`	competition_calibration_scale stays within [0.85, 1.35].	ok
`CALIBRATION_RECORDED`	When calibration ran, the pre-calibration lambdas are recorded.	ok
`STANDING_AVAILABLE`	League-standing context is available for a domestic fixture.	ok
`RANKING_PROVENANCE`	Player ranking/quality signals carry a recognised source.	ok
`DATA_DEPTH`	Starters have enough recent games to model rather than synthesise.	ok
`FBREF_PRIORS_ACTIVE`	FBref season-prior files exist so that branch is not silently inert.	4 problems
`XGBOOST_REASONING_PRESENT`	Match-level xgboost_reasoning payload is present with full tracing pipeline.	ok
`XGBOOST_PLAYER_REASONING`	Starters have xgboost_reasoning metadata tracking feature contributions and FBref priors.	ok
`LAMBDA_REASONING_CONSISTENCY`	Lambdas reported in xgboost_reasoning match the final Poisson lambdas.	ok
`PREGAME_DIRECTION_AGREES`	The pregame fair-line favorite agrees with the model winner.	ok
`PREGAME_TOTAL_CONSISTENT`	The pregame expected total is close to the sum of the lambdas.	ok
`RESULT_WINNER_HIT`	The predicted winner matched the real result.	ok
`RESULT_EXACT_SCORE_HIT`	The headline score matched the real scoreline exactly.	ok
`RESULT_OU_HIT`	The Over/Under 2.5 lean matched reality.	ok
`RESULT_BTTS_HIT`	The BTTS lean matched reality.	ok
`RESULT_CONFIDENT_MISS`	A high-confidence prediction did not reach the real outcome.	ok
`OUTCOME_BRIER`	Brier score of the win/draw/loss probabilities vs the real result.	ok

Generated 2026-09-12 13:33:19 UTC · Soccer prediction reporting