Soccer prediction system deep audit

Slate 20260916 · immutable forensic review of 4 match prediction artifact(s)

Executive conclusion

In 2 match(es) the headline score is not the distribution's modal scoreline (decisive-score substitution or a selection issue) — see the MOST_LIKELY_IS_MODE findings.

At a glance

4matches audited

0critical

0errors

3warnings

0grid non-reproducible

2headline != modal

0winner disagreements

0lambda inconsistencies

0with real result

-winner hit-rate

-decisive hit-rate

0%predicted draws

-actual draws

0confident misses

-mean Brier

Matches

Levante vs Athletic Club

20260916_ATH@LEV · LaLiga

WARNINGS risk 10 pred 0-1 (Athletic Club)λ 1.02 / 1.39conf 0.66 warning 1 info 1 good 38

Problems (1)

Sev	Category	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
warning	integrity	`PLAYER_STAT_REALISM`	Johaneko Louis Jean (Athletic Club): accurate passes 31 exceed total passes 9.	31

Lambda evolution (audit trail)

Stage	Home λ	Away λ
Pre-competitive-floor	0.977	1.385
Pre-calibration	0.977	1.385
Final	1.020	1.385

competition_calibration_scale: 1.0competition_observed_total_goals: 0.0quality_gap_applied: Truemismatch_score_pressure_applied: Falsecompetitive_underdog_floor_applied: Truestage_discount: 1.0

Scoreline distribution

Top scorelines	P
0-1	12.4%
1-1	12.9%
0-0	9.1%
1-0	9.1%
1-2	8.8%

Outcome — home 27.6% · draw 27.3% · away 45.2%

Markets — O2.5 43.2% · BTTS 48.0%

Passed checks (38)

Sev	Category	Rule	Message
good	integrity	`SCHEMA_KEYS_PRESENT`	All required sections present.
good	structure	`LINEUP_ELEVEN`	Levante: 11 starters.
good	structure	`FORMATION_VALID`	Levante: formation 4-3-3 valid.
good	structure	`LINEUP_ELEVEN`	Athletic Club: 11 starters.
good	structure	`FORMATION_VALID`	Athletic Club: formation 4-2-3-1 valid.
good	probability	`OUTCOME_SUMS_ONE`	outcome sums to 1.0000.
good	probability	`MARKETS_COMPLEMENTARY`	Over/Under and BTTS pairs each sum to 1.
good	probability	`SCORELINE_PROBS_NONNEG`	All scoreline probabilities within [0,1].
good	probability	`GRID_SUMS_ONE`	scoreline grid sums to 0.9973.
good	model_behavior	`GRID_REPRODUCIBLE`	Grid reproducible from lambdas (max cell diff 0.0011).
good	probability	`MLS_PROBABILITY_MATCHES`	Headline probability matches the grid.
good	model_behavior	`OUTCOME_MATCHES_GRID`	Outcome split matches the grid (max diff 0.0015).
good	model_behavior	`MARKETS_MATCH_GRID`	Markets match the grid (max diff 0.0027).
good	integrity	`WINNER_IS_VALID_TEAM`	predicted_winner 'Athletic Club' is a participating side.
good	model_behavior	`WINNER_MATCHES_SCORE`	Winner agrees with headline score (Athletic Club).
good	model_behavior	`WINNER_PROBABILITY_DIRECTION`	Winner matches the win-probability favorite (Athletic Club).
good	model_behavior	`LAMBDA_BOUNDS`	Lambdas in range (home 1.02, away 1.385).
good	provenance	`LAMBDA_FACTORS_PRESENT`	lambda_factors audit trail present.
good	model_behavior	`LAMBDA_CONSISTENCY`	Lambda identical across prediction / antagonist / factors.
good	model_behavior	`CALIBRATION_SCALE_BOUNDS`	Calibration scale 1.0 in range.
good	provenance	`XGBOOST_REASONING_PRESENT`	Match-level xgboost_reasoning present (XGBoost).
good	model_behavior	`LAMBDA_REASONING_CONSISTENCY`	Lambdas in xgboost_reasoning match final Poisson lambdas (1.02 / 1.385).
good	provenance	`FBREF_PRIORS_ACTIVE`	FBref team priors applied (blend weight 0.228, home E[lambda]=1.235, away E[lambda]=1.237).
good	provenance	`XGBOOST_PLAYER_REASONING`	All 22 starters carry full XGBoost / FBref reasoning.
good	integrity	`TEAM_GOALS_SUM`	Levante: player goals reconcile to team total (0).
good	integrity	`TEAM_GOALS_SUM`	Athletic Club: player goals reconcile to team total (1).
good	structure	`POSSESSION_SUMS_100`	Possession sums to 100.0%.
good	structure	`EXACTLY_ONE_GOALKEEPER`	Levante: exactly one goalkeeper (Mathew Ryan).
good	integrity	`SHOT_MATH_INTEGRITY`	All 11 projected lines have consistent shot components.
good	integrity	`TEAM_SHOTS_CAP`	Levante: 7 projected shots inside the realistic envelope.
good	structure	`EXACTLY_ONE_GOALKEEPER`	Athletic Club: exactly one goalkeeper (Unai Simón).
good	integrity	`SHOT_MATH_INTEGRITY`	All 11 projected lines have consistent shot components.
good	integrity	`TEAM_SHOTS_CAP`	Athletic Club: 10 projected shots inside the realistic envelope.
good	provenance	`STANDING_AVAILABLE`	League-standing context available for both sides.
good	provenance	`RANKING_PROVENANCE`	22/22 starters carry a ranking source.
good	provenance	`DATA_DEPTH`	20/22 starters have adequate recent history.
good	provenance	`PREGAME_DIRECTION_AGREES`	Pregame favorite agrees with the model winner (Athletic Club).
good	provenance	`PREGAME_TOTAL_CONSISTENT`	Pregame total 2.40 ~ Poisson total 2.41.

Notes (1)

Sev	Category	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
info	model_behavior	`MOST_LIKELY_IS_MODE`	Decisive-score substitution policy: the modal scoreline is a draw 1-1 (p=0.1286); the headline shows the most likely decisive score 0-1 (p=0.1239) for the probability favorite Athletic Club.	0-1	1-1

Barcelona vs R. Racing Club

20260916_SAN@BAR · LaLiga

WARNINGS risk 10 pred 3-0 (Barcelona)λ 3.16 / 0.68conf 0.78 warning 1 good 39

Problems (1)

Sev	Category	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
warning	provenance	`FBREF_PRIORS_ACTIVE`	FBref dataset files not found; team priors inactive.

Lambda evolution (audit trail)

Stage	Home λ	Away λ
Pre-mismatch	2.704	0.717
Pre-calibration	2.704	0.717
Final	3.163	0.677

competition_calibration_scale: 1.0competition_observed_total_goals: 0.0quality_gap_applied: Truemismatch_score_pressure_applied: Truecompetitive_underdog_floor_applied: Falsestage_discount: 1.0

Scoreline distribution

Top scorelines	P
3-0	11.3%
2-0	10.8%
4-0	9.0%
3-1	7.7%
2-1	7.3%

Outcome — home 85.2% · draw 9.9% · away 4.9%

Markets — O2.5 73.7% · BTTS 47.1%

Passed checks (39)

Sev	Category	Rule	Message
good	integrity	`SCHEMA_KEYS_PRESENT`	All required sections present.
good	structure	`LINEUP_ELEVEN`	Barcelona: 11 starters.
good	structure	`FORMATION_VALID`	Barcelona: formation 4-2-3-1 valid.
good	structure	`LINEUP_ELEVEN`	R. Racing Club: 11 starters.
good	structure	`FORMATION_VALID`	R. Racing Club: formation 4-2-3-1 valid.
good	probability	`OUTCOME_SUMS_ONE`	outcome sums to 1.0001.
good	probability	`MARKETS_COMPLEMENTARY`	Over/Under and BTTS pairs each sum to 1.
good	probability	`SCORELINE_PROBS_NONNEG`	All scoreline probabilities within [0,1].
good	probability	`GRID_SUMS_ONE`	scoreline grid sums to 0.9973.
good	model_behavior	`GRID_REPRODUCIBLE`	Grid reproducible from lambdas (max cell diff 0.0002).
good	model_behavior	`MOST_LIKELY_IS_MODE`	Headline score 3-0 is the modal scoreline.
good	probability	`MLS_PROBABILITY_MATCHES`	Headline probability matches the grid.
good	model_behavior	`OUTCOME_MATCHES_GRID`	Outcome split matches the grid (max diff 0.0019).
good	model_behavior	`MARKETS_MATCH_GRID`	Markets match the grid (max diff 0.0027).
good	integrity	`WINNER_IS_VALID_TEAM`	predicted_winner 'Barcelona' is a participating side.
good	model_behavior	`WINNER_MATCHES_SCORE`	Winner agrees with headline score (Barcelona).
good	model_behavior	`WINNER_PROBABILITY_DIRECTION`	Winner matches the win-probability favorite (Barcelona).
good	model_behavior	`LAMBDA_BOUNDS`	Lambdas in range (home 3.163, away 0.677).
good	provenance	`LAMBDA_FACTORS_PRESENT`	lambda_factors audit trail present.
good	model_behavior	`LAMBDA_CONSISTENCY`	Lambda identical across prediction / antagonist / factors.
good	model_behavior	`CALIBRATION_SCALE_BOUNDS`	Calibration scale 1.0 in range.
good	provenance	`XGBOOST_REASONING_PRESENT`	Match-level xgboost_reasoning present (XGBoost).
good	model_behavior	`LAMBDA_REASONING_CONSISTENCY`	Lambdas in xgboost_reasoning match final Poisson lambdas (3.163 / 0.677).
good	provenance	`XGBOOST_PLAYER_REASONING`	All 22 starters carry full XGBoost / FBref reasoning.
good	integrity	`TEAM_GOALS_SUM`	Barcelona: player goals reconcile to team total (3).
good	integrity	`TEAM_GOALS_SUM`	R. Racing Club: player goals reconcile to team total (0).
good	structure	`POSSESSION_SUMS_100`	Possession sums to 100.0%.
good	integrity	`PLAYER_STAT_REALISM`	All 22 projected player lines pass realism checks.
good	structure	`EXACTLY_ONE_GOALKEEPER`	Barcelona: exactly one goalkeeper (Joan García).
good	integrity	`SHOT_MATH_INTEGRITY`	All 11 projected lines have consistent shot components.
good	integrity	`TEAM_SHOTS_CAP`	Barcelona: 11 projected shots inside the realistic envelope.
good	structure	`EXACTLY_ONE_GOALKEEPER`	R. Racing Club: exactly one goalkeeper (Julen Agirrezabala).
good	integrity	`SHOT_MATH_INTEGRITY`	All 11 projected lines have consistent shot components.
good	integrity	`TEAM_SHOTS_CAP`	R. Racing Club: 10 projected shots inside the realistic envelope.
good	provenance	`STANDING_AVAILABLE`	League-standing context available for both sides.
good	provenance	`RANKING_PROVENANCE`	22/22 starters carry a ranking source.
good	provenance	`DATA_DEPTH`	21/22 starters have adequate recent history.
good	provenance	`PREGAME_DIRECTION_AGREES`	Pregame favorite agrees with the model winner (Barcelona).
good	provenance	`PREGAME_TOTAL_CONSISTENT`	Pregame total 3.84 ~ Poisson total 3.84.

Deportivo vs Sevilla

20260916_SEV@COR · LaLiga

WARNINGS risk 10 pred 1-0 (Deportivo)λ 1.36 / 1.02conf 0.65 warning 1 info 1 good 38

Problems (1)

Sev	Category	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
warning	provenance	`FBREF_PRIORS_ACTIVE`	FBref dataset files not found; team priors inactive.

Lambda evolution (audit trail)

Stage	Home λ	Away λ
Pre-competitive-floor	1.363	0.889
Pre-calibration	1.363	0.889
Final	1.363	1.020

competition_calibration_scale: 1.0competition_observed_total_goals: 0.0quality_gap_applied: Falsemismatch_score_pressure_applied: Falsecompetitive_underdog_floor_applied: Truestage_discount: 1.0

Scoreline distribution

Top scorelines	P
1-0	12.5%
1-1	12.9%
0-0	9.3%
0-1	9.3%
2-1	8.7%

Outcome — home 44.6% · draw 27.5% · away 28.0%

Markets — O2.5 42.6% · BTTS 47.7%

Passed checks (38)

Sev	Category	Rule	Message
good	integrity	`SCHEMA_KEYS_PRESENT`	All required sections present.
good	structure	`LINEUP_ELEVEN`	Deportivo: 11 starters.
good	structure	`FORMATION_VALID`	Deportivo: formation 4-2-3-1 valid.
good	structure	`LINEUP_ELEVEN`	Sevilla: 11 starters.
good	structure	`FORMATION_VALID`	Sevilla: formation 4-4-2 valid.
good	probability	`OUTCOME_SUMS_ONE`	outcome sums to 1.0001.
good	probability	`MARKETS_COMPLEMENTARY`	Over/Under and BTTS pairs each sum to 1.
good	probability	`SCORELINE_PROBS_NONNEG`	All scoreline probabilities within [0,1].
good	probability	`GRID_SUMS_ONE`	scoreline grid sums to 0.9975.
good	model_behavior	`GRID_REPRODUCIBLE`	Grid reproducible from lambdas (max cell diff 0.0011).
good	probability	`MLS_PROBABILITY_MATCHES`	Headline probability matches the grid.
good	model_behavior	`OUTCOME_MATCHES_GRID`	Outcome split matches the grid (max diff 0.0015).
good	model_behavior	`MARKETS_MATCH_GRID`	Markets match the grid (max diff 0.0025).
good	integrity	`WINNER_IS_VALID_TEAM`	predicted_winner 'Deportivo' is a participating side.
good	model_behavior	`WINNER_MATCHES_SCORE`	Winner agrees with headline score (Deportivo).
good	model_behavior	`WINNER_PROBABILITY_DIRECTION`	Winner matches the win-probability favorite (Deportivo).
good	model_behavior	`LAMBDA_BOUNDS`	Lambdas in range (home 1.363, away 1.02).
good	provenance	`LAMBDA_FACTORS_PRESENT`	lambda_factors audit trail present.
good	model_behavior	`LAMBDA_CONSISTENCY`	Lambda identical across prediction / antagonist / factors.
good	model_behavior	`CALIBRATION_SCALE_BOUNDS`	Calibration scale 1.0 in range.
good	provenance	`XGBOOST_REASONING_PRESENT`	Match-level xgboost_reasoning present (XGBoost).
good	model_behavior	`LAMBDA_REASONING_CONSISTENCY`	Lambdas in xgboost_reasoning match final Poisson lambdas (1.363 / 1.02).
good	provenance	`XGBOOST_PLAYER_REASONING`	All 22 starters carry full XGBoost / FBref reasoning.
good	integrity	`TEAM_GOALS_SUM`	Deportivo: player goals reconcile to team total (1).
good	integrity	`TEAM_GOALS_SUM`	Sevilla: player goals reconcile to team total (0).
good	structure	`POSSESSION_SUMS_100`	Possession sums to 100.0%.
good	integrity	`PLAYER_STAT_REALISM`	All 22 projected player lines pass realism checks.
good	structure	`EXACTLY_ONE_GOALKEEPER`	Deportivo: exactly one goalkeeper (Leo Román).
good	integrity	`SHOT_MATH_INTEGRITY`	All 11 projected lines have consistent shot components.
good	integrity	`TEAM_SHOTS_CAP`	Deportivo: 7 projected shots inside the realistic envelope.
good	structure	`EXACTLY_ONE_GOALKEEPER`	Sevilla: exactly one goalkeeper (Odysseas Vlachodimos).
good	integrity	`SHOT_MATH_INTEGRITY`	All 11 projected lines have consistent shot components.
good	integrity	`TEAM_SHOTS_CAP`	Sevilla: 14 projected shots inside the realistic envelope.
good	provenance	`STANDING_AVAILABLE`	League-standing context available for both sides.
good	provenance	`RANKING_PROVENANCE`	22/22 starters carry a ranking source.
good	provenance	`DATA_DEPTH`	19/22 starters have adequate recent history.
good	provenance	`PREGAME_DIRECTION_AGREES`	Pregame favorite agrees with the model winner (Deportivo).
good	provenance	`PREGAME_TOTAL_CONSISTENT`	Pregame total 2.38 ~ Poisson total 2.38.

Notes (1)

Sev	Category	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
info	model_behavior	`MOST_LIKELY_IS_MODE`	Decisive-score substitution policy: the modal scoreline is a draw 1-1 (p=0.1294); the headline shows the most likely decisive score 1-0 (p=0.1247) for the probability favorite Deportivo.	1-0	1-1

Atl. Madrid vs Osasuna

20260916_OSA@ATM · LaLiga

CLEAN risk 0 pred 2-1 (Atl. Madrid)λ 2.07 / 1.05conf 0.7 good 40

Problems (0)

none

Lambda evolution (audit trail)

Stage	Home λ	Away λ
Pre-mismatch	1.829	0.983
Pre-competitive-floor	2.072	0.942
Pre-calibration	1.829	0.983
Final	2.072	1.050

competition_calibration_scale: 1.0competition_observed_total_goals: 0.0quality_gap_applied: Truemismatch_score_pressure_applied: Truecompetitive_underdog_floor_applied: Truestage_discount: 1.0

Scoreline distribution

Top scorelines	P
2-1	9.9%
1-1	9.6%
2-0	9.5%
1-0	9.1%
3-1	6.9%

Outcome — home 60.8% · draw 20.8% · away 18.4%

Markets — O2.5 60.4% · BTTS 56.9%

Passed checks (40)

Sev	Category	Rule	Message
good	integrity	`SCHEMA_KEYS_PRESENT`	All required sections present.
good	structure	`LINEUP_ELEVEN`	Atl. Madrid: 11 starters.
good	structure	`FORMATION_VALID`	Atl. Madrid: formation 3-5-2 valid.
good	structure	`LINEUP_ELEVEN`	Osasuna: 11 starters.
good	structure	`FORMATION_VALID`	Osasuna: formation 4-2-3-1 valid.
good	probability	`OUTCOME_SUMS_ONE`	outcome sums to 1.0000.
good	probability	`MARKETS_COMPLEMENTARY`	Over/Under and BTTS pairs each sum to 1.
good	probability	`SCORELINE_PROBS_NONNEG`	All scoreline probabilities within [0,1].
good	probability	`GRID_SUMS_ONE`	scoreline grid sums to 0.9960.
good	model_behavior	`GRID_REPRODUCIBLE`	Grid reproducible from lambdas (max cell diff 0.0005).
good	model_behavior	`MOST_LIKELY_IS_MODE`	Headline score 2-1 is the modal scoreline.
good	probability	`MLS_PROBABILITY_MATCHES`	Headline probability matches the grid.
good	model_behavior	`OUTCOME_MATCHES_GRID`	Outcome split matches the grid (max diff 0.0023).
good	model_behavior	`MARKETS_MATCH_GRID`	Markets match the grid (max diff 0.0041).
good	integrity	`WINNER_IS_VALID_TEAM`	predicted_winner 'Atl. Madrid' is a participating side.
good	model_behavior	`WINNER_MATCHES_SCORE`	Winner agrees with headline score (Atl. Madrid).
good	model_behavior	`WINNER_PROBABILITY_DIRECTION`	Winner matches the win-probability favorite (Atl. Madrid).
good	model_behavior	`LAMBDA_BOUNDS`	Lambdas in range (home 2.072, away 1.05).
good	provenance	`LAMBDA_FACTORS_PRESENT`	lambda_factors audit trail present.
good	model_behavior	`LAMBDA_CONSISTENCY`	Lambda identical across prediction / antagonist / factors.
good	model_behavior	`CALIBRATION_SCALE_BOUNDS`	Calibration scale 1.0 in range.
good	provenance	`XGBOOST_REASONING_PRESENT`	Match-level xgboost_reasoning present (XGBoost).
good	model_behavior	`LAMBDA_REASONING_CONSISTENCY`	Lambdas in xgboost_reasoning match final Poisson lambdas (2.072 / 1.05).
good	provenance	`FBREF_PRIORS_ACTIVE`	FBref team priors applied (blend weight 0.228, home E[lambda]=1.728, away E[lambda]=1.726).
good	provenance	`XGBOOST_PLAYER_REASONING`	All 22 starters carry full XGBoost / FBref reasoning.
good	integrity	`TEAM_GOALS_SUM`	Atl. Madrid: player goals reconcile to team total (2).
good	integrity	`TEAM_GOALS_SUM`	Osasuna: player goals reconcile to team total (1).
good	structure	`POSSESSION_SUMS_100`	Possession sums to 100.0%.
good	integrity	`PLAYER_STAT_REALISM`	All 22 projected player lines pass realism checks.
good	structure	`EXACTLY_ONE_GOALKEEPER`	Atl. Madrid: exactly one goalkeeper (Jan Oblak).
good	integrity	`SHOT_MATH_INTEGRITY`	All 11 projected lines have consistent shot components.
good	integrity	`TEAM_SHOTS_CAP`	Atl. Madrid: 15 projected shots inside the realistic envelope.
good	structure	`EXACTLY_ONE_GOALKEEPER`	Osasuna: exactly one goalkeeper (Sergio Herrera).
good	integrity	`SHOT_MATH_INTEGRITY`	All 11 projected lines have consistent shot components.
good	integrity	`TEAM_SHOTS_CAP`	Osasuna: 12 projected shots inside the realistic envelope.
good	provenance	`STANDING_AVAILABLE`	League-standing context available for both sides.
good	provenance	`RANKING_PROVENANCE`	22/22 starters carry a ranking source.
good	provenance	`DATA_DEPTH`	17/22 starters have adequate recent history.
good	provenance	`PREGAME_DIRECTION_AGREES`	Pregame favorite agrees with the model winner (Atl. Madrid).
good	provenance	`PREGAME_TOTAL_CONSISTENT`	Pregame total 3.12 ~ Poisson total 3.12.

Rule catalogue

Rule	Description	Triggered
`SCHEMA_KEYS_PRESENT`	All required top-level sections exist in the artifact.	ok
`LINEUP_ELEVEN`	Each side fields exactly 11 starters.	ok
`FORMATION_VALID`	Formation string parses and its outfield lines sum to 10.	ok
`POSSESSION_SUMS_100`	Estimated possession of both teams sums to ~100%.	ok
`TEAM_GOALS_SUM`	Players' projected integer goals sum to the team's headline score.	ok
`TEAM_TOTALS_SCORE_MATCH`	team_totals.projected_goals equals the headline score component.	ok
`TEAM_EG_LAMBDA_MATCH`	team_totals.expected_goals matches the team's Poisson lambda.	ok
`PLAYER_STAT_REALISM`	Projected player lines are internally consistent (xG<=shots, accurate<=total passes, minutes/rating in range).	1 problems
`EXACTLY_ONE_GOALKEEPER`	Each starting XI fields exactly one goalkeeper.	ok
`SHOT_MATH_INTEGRITY`	Shot components are physically consistent (on target <= total, on+off <= total; blocked shots cannot be negative).	ok
`PLAYER_MINUTES_LEAGUE_CAP`	No player projects more minutes than the competition clock allows (90 + stoppage, or extra time in cups).	ok
`TEAM_SHOTS_CAP`	Team projected shots stay inside the realistic historical envelope (~35).	ok
`OUTCOME_SUMS_ONE`	home_win + draw + away_win sums to 1.	ok
`MARKETS_COMPLEMENTARY`	Over/Under and BTTS pairs each sum to 1.	ok
`GRID_SUMS_ONE`	The scoreline probability grid sums to ~1.	ok
`SCORELINE_PROBS_NONNEG`	Every scoreline probability is a valid [0,1] value.	ok
`GRID_REPRODUCIBLE`	The reported scoreline grid is reproducible from the lambdas.	ok
`MOST_LIKELY_IS_MODE`	The headline most-likely score is the distribution's modal scoreline.	ok
`MLS_PROBABILITY_MATCHES`	most_likely_score_probability equals the grid value of that score.	ok
`OUTCOME_MATCHES_GRID`	The reported win/draw/loss split is derivable from the grid.	ok
`MARKETS_MATCH_GRID`	The reported Over/Under and BTTS are derivable from the grid.	ok
`WINNER_MATCHES_SCORE`	predicted_winner agrees with the headline score direction.	ok
`WINNER_PROBABILITY_DIRECTION`	predicted_winner is the team with the higher win probability.	ok
`WINNER_IS_VALID_TEAM`	predicted_winner names a participating team (or Draw).	ok
`MODAL_OUTCOME_IS_DRAW`	Draw is the single largest outcome bucket while a team is named.	ok
`LAMBDA_BOUNDS`	Both lambdas fall inside the engine's [0.55, 5.00] envelope.	ok
`LAMBDA_CONSISTENCY`	The lambda is identical across prediction / antagonist / lambda_factors.	ok
`LAMBDA_FACTORS_PRESENT`	The lambda_factors decomposition (audit trail) is present.	ok
`CALIBRATION_SCALE_BOUNDS`	competition_calibration_scale stays within [0.85, 1.35].	ok
`CALIBRATION_RECORDED`	When calibration ran, the pre-calibration lambdas are recorded.	ok
`STANDING_AVAILABLE`	League-standing context is available for a domestic fixture.	ok
`RANKING_PROVENANCE`	Player ranking/quality signals carry a recognised source.	ok
`DATA_DEPTH`	Starters have enough recent games to model rather than synthesise.	ok
`FBREF_PRIORS_ACTIVE`	FBref season-prior files exist so that branch is not silently inert.	2 problems
`XGBOOST_REASONING_PRESENT`	Match-level xgboost_reasoning payload is present with full tracing pipeline.	ok
`XGBOOST_PLAYER_REASONING`	Starters have xgboost_reasoning metadata tracking feature contributions and FBref priors.	ok
`LAMBDA_REASONING_CONSISTENCY`	Lambdas reported in xgboost_reasoning match the final Poisson lambdas.	ok
`PREGAME_DIRECTION_AGREES`	The pregame fair-line favorite agrees with the model winner.	ok
`PREGAME_TOTAL_CONSISTENT`	The pregame expected total is close to the sum of the lambdas.	ok
`RESULT_WINNER_HIT`	The predicted winner matched the real result.	ok
`RESULT_EXACT_SCORE_HIT`	The headline score matched the real scoreline exactly.	ok
`RESULT_OU_HIT`	The Over/Under 2.5 lean matched reality.	ok
`RESULT_BTTS_HIT`	The BTTS lean matched reality.	ok
`RESULT_CONFIDENT_MISS`	A high-confidence prediction did not reach the real outcome.	ok
`OUTCOME_BRIER`	Brier score of the win/draw/loss probabilities vs the real result.	ok

Generated 2026-09-16 13:36:16 UTC · Soccer prediction reporting