Soccer prediction system deep audit

Slate 20261010 · immutable forensic review of 10 match prediction artifact(s)

Executive conclusion

In 6 match(es) the headline score is not the distribution's modal scoreline (decisive-score substitution or a selection issue) — see the MOST_LIKELY_IS_MODE findings.

At a glance

10matches audited

0critical

0errors

2warnings

0grid non-reproducible

6headline != modal

0winner disagreements

0lambda inconsistencies

0with real result

-winner hit-rate

-decisive hit-rate

0%predicted draws

-actual draws

0confident misses

-mean Brier

Matches

Aston Villa vs Brentford

20261010_BRE@AVL · Premier League

WARNINGS risk 10 pred 1-2 (Brentford)λ 1.42 / 1.50conf 0.69 warning 1 info 1 good 38

Problems (1)

Sev	Category	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
warning	provenance	`FBREF_PRIORS_ACTIVE`	FBref dataset files not found; team priors inactive.

Lambda evolution (audit trail)

Stage	Home λ	Away λ
Pre-competitive-floor	1.418	1.499
Pre-calibration	1.289	1.545
Final	1.418	1.499

competition_calibration_scale: 1.0competition_observed_total_goals: 0.0quality_gap_applied: Falsemismatch_score_pressure_applied: Falsecompetitive_underdog_floor_applied: Falsestage_discount: 1.0

Scoreline distribution

Top scorelines	P
1-2	8.6%
1-1	11.6%
2-1	8.2%
0-1	8.0%
1-0	7.6%

Outcome — home 35.8% · draw 24.9% · away 39.4%

Markets — O2.5 55.8% · BTTS 58.9%

Passed checks (38)

Sev	Category	Rule	Message
good	integrity	`SCHEMA_KEYS_PRESENT`	All required sections present.
good	structure	`LINEUP_ELEVEN`	Aston Villa: 11 starters.
good	structure	`FORMATION_VALID`	Aston Villa: formation 4-2-3-1 valid.
good	structure	`LINEUP_ELEVEN`	Brentford: 11 starters.
good	structure	`FORMATION_VALID`	Brentford: formation 4-2-3-1 valid.
good	probability	`OUTCOME_SUMS_ONE`	outcome sums to 1.0000.
good	probability	`MARKETS_COMPLEMENTARY`	Over/Under and BTTS pairs each sum to 1.
good	probability	`SCORELINE_PROBS_NONNEG`	All scoreline probabilities within [0,1].
good	probability	`GRID_SUMS_ONE`	scoreline grid sums to 0.9971.
good	model_behavior	`GRID_REPRODUCIBLE`	Grid reproducible from lambdas (max cell diff 0.0009).
good	probability	`MLS_PROBABILITY_MATCHES`	Headline probability matches the grid.
good	model_behavior	`OUTCOME_MATCHES_GRID`	Outcome split matches the grid (max diff 0.0015).
good	model_behavior	`MARKETS_MATCH_GRID`	Markets match the grid (max diff 0.0030).
good	integrity	`WINNER_IS_VALID_TEAM`	predicted_winner 'Brentford' is a participating side.
good	model_behavior	`WINNER_MATCHES_SCORE`	Winner agrees with headline score (Brentford).
good	model_behavior	`WINNER_PROBABILITY_DIRECTION`	Winner matches the win-probability favorite (Brentford).
good	model_behavior	`LAMBDA_BOUNDS`	Lambdas in range (home 1.418, away 1.499).
good	provenance	`LAMBDA_FACTORS_PRESENT`	lambda_factors audit trail present.
good	model_behavior	`LAMBDA_CONSISTENCY`	Lambda identical across prediction / antagonist / factors.
good	model_behavior	`CALIBRATION_SCALE_BOUNDS`	Calibration scale 1.0 in range.
good	provenance	`XGBOOST_REASONING_PRESENT`	Match-level xgboost_reasoning present (XGBoost).
good	model_behavior	`LAMBDA_REASONING_CONSISTENCY`	Lambdas in xgboost_reasoning match final Poisson lambdas (1.418 / 1.499).
good	provenance	`XGBOOST_PLAYER_REASONING`	All 22 starters carry full XGBoost / FBref reasoning.
good	integrity	`TEAM_GOALS_SUM`	Aston Villa: player goals reconcile to team total (1).
good	integrity	`TEAM_GOALS_SUM`	Brentford: player goals reconcile to team total (2).
good	structure	`POSSESSION_SUMS_100`	Possession sums to 100.0%.
good	integrity	`PLAYER_STAT_REALISM`	All 22 projected player lines pass realism checks.
good	structure	`EXACTLY_ONE_GOALKEEPER`	Aston Villa: exactly one goalkeeper (Zion Suzuki).
good	integrity	`SHOT_MATH_INTEGRITY`	All 11 projected lines have consistent shot components.
good	integrity	`TEAM_SHOTS_CAP`	Aston Villa: 13 projected shots inside the realistic envelope.
good	structure	`EXACTLY_ONE_GOALKEEPER`	Brentford: exactly one goalkeeper (Caoimhin Kelleher).
good	integrity	`SHOT_MATH_INTEGRITY`	All 11 projected lines have consistent shot components.
good	integrity	`TEAM_SHOTS_CAP`	Brentford: 16 projected shots inside the realistic envelope.
good	provenance	`STANDING_AVAILABLE`	League-standing context available for both sides.
good	provenance	`RANKING_PROVENANCE`	22/22 starters carry a ranking source.
good	provenance	`DATA_DEPTH`	21/22 starters have adequate recent history.
good	provenance	`PREGAME_DIRECTION_AGREES`	Pregame favorite agrees with the model winner (Brentford).
good	provenance	`PREGAME_TOTAL_CONSISTENT`	Pregame total 2.92 ~ Poisson total 2.92.

Notes (1)

Sev	Category	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
info	model_behavior	`MOST_LIKELY_IS_MODE`	Decisive-score substitution policy: the modal scoreline is a draw 1-1 (p=0.1159); the headline shows the most likely decisive score 1-2 (p=0.0862) for the probability favorite Brentford.	1-2	1-1

Man Utd vs Tottenham

20261010_TOT@MUN · Premier League

WARNINGS risk 10 pred 1-0 (Man Utd)λ 1.54 / 1.20conf 0.73 warning 1 info 1 good 38

Problems (1)

Sev	Category	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
warning	provenance	`FBREF_PRIORS_ACTIVE`	FBref dataset files not found; team priors inactive.

Lambda evolution (audit trail)

Stage	Home λ	Away λ
Pre-competitive-floor	1.542	1.200
Pre-calibration	1.542	1.200
Final	1.542	1.200

competition_calibration_scale: 1.0competition_observed_total_goals: 0.0quality_gap_applied: Falsemismatch_score_pressure_applied: Falsecompetitive_underdog_floor_applied: Falsestage_discount: 1.0

Scoreline distribution

Top scorelines	P
1-0	9.8%
1-1	12.0%
2-1	9.2%
2-0	7.7%
0-1	7.6%

Outcome — home 45.1% · draw 25.4% · away 29.5%

Markets — O2.5 51.7% · BTTS 55.0%

Passed checks (38)

Sev	Category	Rule	Message
good	integrity	`SCHEMA_KEYS_PRESENT`	All required sections present.
good	structure	`LINEUP_ELEVEN`	Man Utd: 11 starters.
good	structure	`FORMATION_VALID`	Man Utd: formation 4-2-3-1 valid.
good	structure	`LINEUP_ELEVEN`	Tottenham: 11 starters.
good	structure	`FORMATION_VALID`	Tottenham: formation 4-2-3-1 valid.
good	probability	`OUTCOME_SUMS_ONE`	outcome sums to 1.0001.
good	probability	`MARKETS_COMPLEMENTARY`	Over/Under and BTTS pairs each sum to 1.
good	probability	`SCORELINE_PROBS_NONNEG`	All scoreline probabilities within [0,1].
good	probability	`GRID_SUMS_ONE`	scoreline grid sums to 0.9962.
good	model_behavior	`GRID_REPRODUCIBLE`	Grid reproducible from lambdas (max cell diff 0.0011).
good	probability	`MLS_PROBABILITY_MATCHES`	Headline probability matches the grid.
good	model_behavior	`OUTCOME_MATCHES_GRID`	Outcome split matches the grid (max diff 0.0020).
good	model_behavior	`MARKETS_MATCH_GRID`	Markets match the grid (max diff 0.0038).
good	integrity	`WINNER_IS_VALID_TEAM`	predicted_winner 'Man Utd' is a participating side.
good	model_behavior	`WINNER_MATCHES_SCORE`	Winner agrees with headline score (Man Utd).
good	model_behavior	`WINNER_PROBABILITY_DIRECTION`	Winner matches the win-probability favorite (Man Utd).
good	model_behavior	`LAMBDA_BOUNDS`	Lambdas in range (home 1.542, away 1.2).
good	provenance	`LAMBDA_FACTORS_PRESENT`	lambda_factors audit trail present.
good	model_behavior	`LAMBDA_CONSISTENCY`	Lambda identical across prediction / antagonist / factors.
good	model_behavior	`CALIBRATION_SCALE_BOUNDS`	Calibration scale 1.0 in range.
good	provenance	`XGBOOST_REASONING_PRESENT`	Match-level xgboost_reasoning present (XGBoost).
good	model_behavior	`LAMBDA_REASONING_CONSISTENCY`	Lambdas in xgboost_reasoning match final Poisson lambdas (1.542 / 1.2).
good	provenance	`XGBOOST_PLAYER_REASONING`	All 22 starters carry full XGBoost / FBref reasoning.
good	integrity	`TEAM_GOALS_SUM`	Man Utd: player goals reconcile to team total (1).
good	integrity	`TEAM_GOALS_SUM`	Tottenham: player goals reconcile to team total (0).
good	structure	`POSSESSION_SUMS_100`	Possession sums to 100.0%.
good	integrity	`PLAYER_STAT_REALISM`	All 22 projected player lines pass realism checks.
good	structure	`EXACTLY_ONE_GOALKEEPER`	Man Utd: exactly one goalkeeper (Senne Lammens).
good	integrity	`SHOT_MATH_INTEGRITY`	All 11 projected lines have consistent shot components.
good	integrity	`TEAM_SHOTS_CAP`	Man Utd: 17 projected shots inside the realistic envelope.
good	structure	`EXACTLY_ONE_GOALKEEPER`	Tottenham: exactly one goalkeeper (Antonín Kinský).
good	integrity	`SHOT_MATH_INTEGRITY`	All 11 projected lines have consistent shot components.
good	integrity	`TEAM_SHOTS_CAP`	Tottenham: 14 projected shots inside the realistic envelope.
good	provenance	`STANDING_AVAILABLE`	League-standing context available for both sides.
good	provenance	`RANKING_PROVENANCE`	22/22 starters carry a ranking source.
good	provenance	`DATA_DEPTH`	22/22 starters have adequate recent history.
good	provenance	`PREGAME_DIRECTION_AGREES`	Pregame favorite agrees with the model winner (Man Utd).
good	provenance	`PREGAME_TOTAL_CONSISTENT`	Pregame total 2.74 ~ Poisson total 2.74.

Notes (1)

Sev	Category	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
info	model_behavior	`MOST_LIKELY_IS_MODE`	Decisive-score substitution policy: the modal scoreline is a draw 1-1 (p=0.1203); the headline shows the most likely decisive score 1-0 (p=0.0983) for the probability favorite Man Utd.	1-0	1-1

Rayo Vallecano vs Athletic Club

20261010_ATH@RAY · LaLiga

CLEAN risk 0 pred 1-0 (Rayo Vallecano)λ 1.34 / 1.00conf 0.71 info 1 good 39

Problems (0)

none

Lambda evolution (audit trail)

Stage	Home λ	Away λ
Pre-competitive-floor	1.339	1.000
Pre-calibration	1.217	1.031
Final	1.339	1.000

competition_calibration_scale: 1.0competition_observed_total_goals: 0.0quality_gap_applied: Falsemismatch_score_pressure_applied: Falsecompetitive_underdog_floor_applied: Falsestage_discount: 1.0

Scoreline distribution

Top scorelines	P
1-0	12.8%
1-1	13.0%
0-0	9.8%
0-1	9.5%
2-1	8.6%

Outcome — home 44.4% · draw 27.8% · away 27.8%

Markets — O2.5 41.4% · BTTS 46.8%

Passed checks (39)

Sev	Category	Rule	Message
good	integrity	`SCHEMA_KEYS_PRESENT`	All required sections present.
good	structure	`LINEUP_ELEVEN`	Rayo Vallecano: 11 starters.
good	structure	`FORMATION_VALID`	Rayo Vallecano: formation 4-3-3 valid.
good	structure	`LINEUP_ELEVEN`	Athletic Club: 11 starters.
good	structure	`FORMATION_VALID`	Athletic Club: formation 4-2-3-1 valid.
good	probability	`OUTCOME_SUMS_ONE`	outcome sums to 1.0000.
good	probability	`MARKETS_COMPLEMENTARY`	Over/Under and BTTS pairs each sum to 1.
good	probability	`SCORELINE_PROBS_NONNEG`	All scoreline probabilities within [0,1].
good	probability	`GRID_SUMS_ONE`	scoreline grid sums to 0.9978.
good	model_behavior	`GRID_REPRODUCIBLE`	Grid reproducible from lambdas (max cell diff 0.0011).
good	probability	`MLS_PROBABILITY_MATCHES`	Headline probability matches the grid.
good	model_behavior	`OUTCOME_MATCHES_GRID`	Outcome split matches the grid (max diff 0.0010).
good	model_behavior	`MARKETS_MATCH_GRID`	Markets match the grid (max diff 0.0021).
good	integrity	`WINNER_IS_VALID_TEAM`	predicted_winner 'Rayo Vallecano' is a participating side.
good	model_behavior	`WINNER_MATCHES_SCORE`	Winner agrees with headline score (Rayo Vallecano).
good	model_behavior	`WINNER_PROBABILITY_DIRECTION`	Winner matches the win-probability favorite (Rayo Vallecano).
good	model_behavior	`LAMBDA_BOUNDS`	Lambdas in range (home 1.339, away 1.0).
good	provenance	`LAMBDA_FACTORS_PRESENT`	lambda_factors audit trail present.
good	model_behavior	`LAMBDA_CONSISTENCY`	Lambda identical across prediction / antagonist / factors.
good	model_behavior	`CALIBRATION_SCALE_BOUNDS`	Calibration scale 1.0 in range.
good	provenance	`XGBOOST_REASONING_PRESENT`	Match-level xgboost_reasoning present (XGBoost).
good	model_behavior	`LAMBDA_REASONING_CONSISTENCY`	Lambdas in xgboost_reasoning match final Poisson lambdas (1.339 / 1.0).
good	provenance	`FBREF_PRIORS_ACTIVE`	FBref team priors applied (blend weight 0.228, home E[lambda]=0.988, away E[lambda]=0.985).
good	provenance	`XGBOOST_PLAYER_REASONING`	All 22 starters carry full XGBoost / FBref reasoning.
good	integrity	`TEAM_GOALS_SUM`	Rayo Vallecano: player goals reconcile to team total (1).
good	integrity	`TEAM_GOALS_SUM`	Athletic Club: player goals reconcile to team total (0).
good	structure	`POSSESSION_SUMS_100`	Possession sums to 100.0%.
good	integrity	`PLAYER_STAT_REALISM`	All 22 projected player lines pass realism checks.
good	structure	`EXACTLY_ONE_GOALKEEPER`	Rayo Vallecano: exactly one goalkeeper (Emil Audero).
good	integrity	`SHOT_MATH_INTEGRITY`	All 11 projected lines have consistent shot components.
good	integrity	`TEAM_SHOTS_CAP`	Rayo Vallecano: 16 projected shots inside the realistic envelope.
good	structure	`EXACTLY_ONE_GOALKEEPER`	Athletic Club: exactly one goalkeeper (Unai Simón).
good	integrity	`SHOT_MATH_INTEGRITY`	All 11 projected lines have consistent shot components.
good	integrity	`TEAM_SHOTS_CAP`	Athletic Club: 14 projected shots inside the realistic envelope.
good	provenance	`STANDING_AVAILABLE`	League-standing context available for both sides.
good	provenance	`RANKING_PROVENANCE`	22/22 starters carry a ranking source.
good	provenance	`DATA_DEPTH`	22/22 starters have adequate recent history.
good	provenance	`PREGAME_DIRECTION_AGREES`	Pregame favorite agrees with the model winner (Rayo Vallecano).
good	provenance	`PREGAME_TOTAL_CONSISTENT`	Pregame total 2.34 ~ Poisson total 2.34.

Notes (1)

Sev	Category	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
info	model_behavior	`MOST_LIKELY_IS_MODE`	Decisive-score substitution policy: the modal scoreline is a draw 1-1 (p=0.1302); the headline shows the most likely decisive score 1-0 (p=0.1280) for the probability favorite Rayo Vallecano.	1-0	1-1

Alavés vs Atlético Madrid

20261010_ATM@ALA · LaLiga

CLEAN risk 0 pred 1-2 (Atlético Madrid)λ 1.16 / 2.71conf 0.79 good 40

Problems (0)

none

Lambda evolution (audit trail)

Stage	Home λ	Away λ
Pre-mismatch	1.319	2.557
Pre-calibration	1.319	2.557
Final	1.163	2.713

competition_calibration_scale: 1.0competition_observed_total_goals: 0.0quality_gap_applied: Truemismatch_score_pressure_applied: Truecompetitive_underdog_floor_applied: Falsestage_discount: 1.0

Scoreline distribution

Top scorelines	P
1-2	8.9%
1-3	8.0%
0-2	7.6%
0-3	6.9%
1-1	6.6%

Outcome — home 13.9% · draw 16.1% · away 70.0%

Markets — O2.5 74.3% · BTTS 64.2%

Passed checks (40)

Sev	Category	Rule	Message
good	integrity	`SCHEMA_KEYS_PRESENT`	All required sections present.
good	structure	`LINEUP_ELEVEN`	Alavés: 11 starters.
good	structure	`FORMATION_VALID`	Alavés: formation 5-3-2 valid.
good	structure	`LINEUP_ELEVEN`	Atlético Madrid: 11 starters.
good	structure	`FORMATION_VALID`	Atlético Madrid: formation 4-2-3-1 valid.
good	probability	`OUTCOME_SUMS_ONE`	outcome sums to 1.0000.
good	probability	`MARKETS_COMPLEMENTARY`	Over/Under and BTTS pairs each sum to 1.
good	probability	`SCORELINE_PROBS_NONNEG`	All scoreline probabilities within [0,1].
good	probability	`GRID_SUMS_ONE`	scoreline grid sums to 0.9961.
good	model_behavior	`GRID_REPRODUCIBLE`	Grid reproducible from lambdas (max cell diff 0.0004).
good	model_behavior	`MOST_LIKELY_IS_MODE`	Headline score 1-2 is the modal scoreline.
good	probability	`MLS_PROBABILITY_MATCHES`	Headline probability matches the grid.
good	model_behavior	`OUTCOME_MATCHES_GRID`	Outcome split matches the grid (max diff 0.0019).
good	model_behavior	`MARKETS_MATCH_GRID`	Markets match the grid (max diff 0.0039).
good	integrity	`WINNER_IS_VALID_TEAM`	predicted_winner 'Atlético Madrid' is a participating side.
good	model_behavior	`WINNER_MATCHES_SCORE`	Winner agrees with headline score (Atlético Madrid).
good	model_behavior	`WINNER_PROBABILITY_DIRECTION`	Winner matches the win-probability favorite (Atlético Madrid).
good	model_behavior	`LAMBDA_BOUNDS`	Lambdas in range (home 1.163, away 2.713).
good	provenance	`LAMBDA_FACTORS_PRESENT`	lambda_factors audit trail present.
good	model_behavior	`LAMBDA_CONSISTENCY`	Lambda identical across prediction / antagonist / factors.
good	model_behavior	`CALIBRATION_SCALE_BOUNDS`	Calibration scale 1.0 in range.
good	provenance	`XGBOOST_REASONING_PRESENT`	Match-level xgboost_reasoning present (XGBoost).
good	model_behavior	`LAMBDA_REASONING_CONSISTENCY`	Lambdas in xgboost_reasoning match final Poisson lambdas (1.163 / 2.713).
good	provenance	`FBREF_PRIORS_ACTIVE`	FBref team priors applied (blend weight 0.228, home E[lambda]=2.877, away E[lambda]=2.886).
good	provenance	`XGBOOST_PLAYER_REASONING`	All 22 starters carry full XGBoost / FBref reasoning.
good	integrity	`TEAM_GOALS_SUM`	Alavés: player goals reconcile to team total (1).
good	integrity	`TEAM_GOALS_SUM`	Atlético Madrid: player goals reconcile to team total (2).
good	structure	`POSSESSION_SUMS_100`	Possession sums to 100.0%.
good	integrity	`PLAYER_STAT_REALISM`	All 22 projected player lines pass realism checks.
good	structure	`EXACTLY_ONE_GOALKEEPER`	Alavés: exactly one goalkeeper (Antonio Sivera).
good	integrity	`SHOT_MATH_INTEGRITY`	All 11 projected lines have consistent shot components.
good	integrity	`TEAM_SHOTS_CAP`	Alavés: 10 projected shots inside the realistic envelope.
good	structure	`EXACTLY_ONE_GOALKEEPER`	Atlético Madrid: exactly one goalkeeper (Jan Oblak).
good	integrity	`SHOT_MATH_INTEGRITY`	All 11 projected lines have consistent shot components.
good	integrity	`TEAM_SHOTS_CAP`	Atlético Madrid: 19 projected shots inside the realistic envelope.
good	provenance	`STANDING_AVAILABLE`	League-standing context available for both sides.
good	provenance	`RANKING_PROVENANCE`	22/22 starters carry a ranking source.
good	provenance	`DATA_DEPTH`	22/22 starters have adequate recent history.
good	provenance	`PREGAME_DIRECTION_AGREES`	Pregame favorite agrees with the model winner (Atlético Madrid).
good	provenance	`PREGAME_TOTAL_CONSISTENT`	Pregame total 3.88 ~ Poisson total 3.88.

Sunderland vs Brighton

20261010_BHA@SUN · Premier League

CLEAN risk 0 pred 1-2 (Brighton)λ 1.36 / 1.52conf 0.71 info 1 good 39

Problems (0)

none

Lambda evolution (audit trail)

Stage	Home λ	Away λ
Pre-competitive-floor	1.356	1.524
Pre-calibration	1.356	1.524
Final	1.356	1.524

competition_calibration_scale: 1.0competition_observed_total_goals: 0.0quality_gap_applied: Truemismatch_score_pressure_applied: Falsecompetitive_underdog_floor_applied: Falsestage_discount: 1.0

Scoreline distribution

Top scorelines	P
1-2	8.8%
1-1	11.7%
0-1	8.5%
2-1	7.9%
1-0	7.5%

Outcome — home 33.8% · draw 24.9% · away 41.3%

Markets — O2.5 54.9% · BTTS 58.1%

Passed checks (39)

Sev	Category	Rule	Message
good	integrity	`SCHEMA_KEYS_PRESENT`	All required sections present.
good	structure	`LINEUP_ELEVEN`	Sunderland: 11 starters.
good	structure	`FORMATION_VALID`	Sunderland: formation 4-2-3-1 valid.
good	structure	`LINEUP_ELEVEN`	Brighton: 11 starters.
good	structure	`FORMATION_VALID`	Brighton: formation 4-2-3-1 valid.
good	probability	`OUTCOME_SUMS_ONE`	outcome sums to 1.0000.
good	probability	`MARKETS_COMPLEMENTARY`	Over/Under and BTTS pairs each sum to 1.
good	probability	`SCORELINE_PROBS_NONNEG`	All scoreline probabilities within [0,1].
good	probability	`GRID_SUMS_ONE`	scoreline grid sums to 0.9963.
good	model_behavior	`GRID_REPRODUCIBLE`	Grid reproducible from lambdas (max cell diff 0.0009).
good	probability	`MLS_PROBABILITY_MATCHES`	Headline probability matches the grid.
good	model_behavior	`OUTCOME_MATCHES_GRID`	Outcome split matches the grid (max diff 0.0018).
good	model_behavior	`MARKETS_MATCH_GRID`	Markets match the grid (max diff 0.0037).
good	integrity	`WINNER_IS_VALID_TEAM`	predicted_winner 'Brighton' is a participating side.
good	model_behavior	`WINNER_MATCHES_SCORE`	Winner agrees with headline score (Brighton).
good	model_behavior	`WINNER_PROBABILITY_DIRECTION`	Winner matches the win-probability favorite (Brighton).
good	model_behavior	`LAMBDA_BOUNDS`	Lambdas in range (home 1.356, away 1.524).
good	provenance	`LAMBDA_FACTORS_PRESENT`	lambda_factors audit trail present.
good	model_behavior	`LAMBDA_CONSISTENCY`	Lambda identical across prediction / antagonist / factors.
good	model_behavior	`CALIBRATION_SCALE_BOUNDS`	Calibration scale 1.0 in range.
good	provenance	`XGBOOST_REASONING_PRESENT`	Match-level xgboost_reasoning present (XGBoost).
good	model_behavior	`LAMBDA_REASONING_CONSISTENCY`	Lambdas in xgboost_reasoning match final Poisson lambdas (1.356 / 1.524).
good	provenance	`FBREF_PRIORS_ACTIVE`	FBref team priors applied (blend weight 0.192, home E[lambda]=2.414, away E[lambda]=1.724).
good	provenance	`XGBOOST_PLAYER_REASONING`	All 22 starters carry full XGBoost / FBref reasoning.
good	integrity	`TEAM_GOALS_SUM`	Sunderland: player goals reconcile to team total (1).
good	integrity	`TEAM_GOALS_SUM`	Brighton: player goals reconcile to team total (2).
good	structure	`POSSESSION_SUMS_100`	Possession sums to 100.0%.
good	integrity	`PLAYER_STAT_REALISM`	All 22 projected player lines pass realism checks.
good	structure	`EXACTLY_ONE_GOALKEEPER`	Sunderland: exactly one goalkeeper (Robin Roefs).
good	integrity	`SHOT_MATH_INTEGRITY`	All 11 projected lines have consistent shot components.
good	integrity	`TEAM_SHOTS_CAP`	Sunderland: 15 projected shots inside the realistic envelope.
good	structure	`EXACTLY_ONE_GOALKEEPER`	Brighton: exactly one goalkeeper (Bart Verbruggen).
good	integrity	`SHOT_MATH_INTEGRITY`	All 11 projected lines have consistent shot components.
good	integrity	`TEAM_SHOTS_CAP`	Brighton: 16 projected shots inside the realistic envelope.
good	provenance	`STANDING_AVAILABLE`	League-standing context available for both sides.
good	provenance	`RANKING_PROVENANCE`	22/22 starters carry a ranking source.
good	provenance	`DATA_DEPTH`	22/22 starters have adequate recent history.
good	provenance	`PREGAME_DIRECTION_AGREES`	Pregame favorite agrees with the model winner (Brighton).
good	provenance	`PREGAME_TOTAL_CONSISTENT`	Pregame total 2.88 ~ Poisson total 2.88.

Notes (1)

Sev	Category	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
info	model_behavior	`MOST_LIKELY_IS_MODE`	Decisive-score substitution policy: the modal scoreline is a draw 1-1 (p=0.1169); the headline shows the most likely decisive score 1-2 (p=0.0884) for the probability favorite Brighton.	1-2	1-1

Chelsea vs Bournemouth

20261010_BOU@CHE · Premier League

CLEAN risk 0 pred 2-1 (Chelsea)λ 1.86 / 1.27conf 0.74 info 1 good 39

Problems (0)

none

Lambda evolution (audit trail)

Stage	Home λ	Away λ
Pre-mismatch	1.791	1.348
Pre-competitive-floor	1.935	1.321
Pre-calibration	1.791	1.348
Final	1.865	1.274

competition_calibration_scale: 1.0competition_observed_total_goals: 0.0quality_gap_applied: Truemismatch_score_pressure_applied: Truecompetitive_underdog_floor_applied: Falsestage_discount: 1.0

Scoreline distribution

Top scorelines	P
2-1	9.6%
1-1	10.4%
1-0	8.0%
2-0	7.5%
1-2	6.6%

Outcome — home 51.2% · draw 22.8% · away 26.1%

Markets — O2.5 60.7% · BTTS 60.9%

Passed checks (39)

Sev	Category	Rule	Message
good	integrity	`SCHEMA_KEYS_PRESENT`	All required sections present.
good	structure	`LINEUP_ELEVEN`	Chelsea: 11 starters.
good	structure	`FORMATION_VALID`	Chelsea: formation 3-4-2-1 valid.
good	structure	`LINEUP_ELEVEN`	Bournemouth: 11 starters.
good	structure	`FORMATION_VALID`	Bournemouth: formation 4-2-3-1 valid.
good	probability	`OUTCOME_SUMS_ONE`	outcome sums to 1.0000.
good	probability	`MARKETS_COMPLEMENTARY`	Over/Under and BTTS pairs each sum to 1.
good	probability	`SCORELINE_PROBS_NONNEG`	All scoreline probabilities within [0,1].
good	probability	`GRID_SUMS_ONE`	scoreline grid sums to 0.9963.
good	model_behavior	`GRID_REPRODUCIBLE`	Grid reproducible from lambdas (max cell diff 0.0007).
good	probability	`MLS_PROBABILITY_MATCHES`	Headline probability matches the grid.
good	model_behavior	`OUTCOME_MATCHES_GRID`	Outcome split matches the grid (max diff 0.0020).
good	model_behavior	`MARKETS_MATCH_GRID`	Markets match the grid (max diff 0.0037).
good	integrity	`WINNER_IS_VALID_TEAM`	predicted_winner 'Chelsea' is a participating side.
good	model_behavior	`WINNER_MATCHES_SCORE`	Winner agrees with headline score (Chelsea).
good	model_behavior	`WINNER_PROBABILITY_DIRECTION`	Winner matches the win-probability favorite (Chelsea).
good	model_behavior	`LAMBDA_BOUNDS`	Lambdas in range (home 1.865, away 1.274).
good	provenance	`LAMBDA_FACTORS_PRESENT`	lambda_factors audit trail present.
good	model_behavior	`LAMBDA_CONSISTENCY`	Lambda identical across prediction / antagonist / factors.
good	model_behavior	`CALIBRATION_SCALE_BOUNDS`	Calibration scale 1.0 in range.
good	provenance	`XGBOOST_REASONING_PRESENT`	Match-level xgboost_reasoning present (XGBoost).
good	model_behavior	`LAMBDA_REASONING_CONSISTENCY`	Lambdas in xgboost_reasoning match final Poisson lambdas (1.865 / 1.274).
good	provenance	`FBREF_PRIORS_ACTIVE`	FBref team priors applied (blend weight 0.192, home E[lambda]=2.414, away E[lambda]=2.414).
good	provenance	`XGBOOST_PLAYER_REASONING`	All 22 starters carry full XGBoost / FBref reasoning.
good	integrity	`TEAM_GOALS_SUM`	Chelsea: player goals reconcile to team total (2).
good	integrity	`TEAM_GOALS_SUM`	Bournemouth: player goals reconcile to team total (1).
good	structure	`POSSESSION_SUMS_100`	Possession sums to 100.0%.
good	integrity	`PLAYER_STAT_REALISM`	All 22 projected player lines pass realism checks.
good	structure	`EXACTLY_ONE_GOALKEEPER`	Chelsea: exactly one goalkeeper (Emiliano Martínez).
good	integrity	`SHOT_MATH_INTEGRITY`	All 11 projected lines have consistent shot components.
good	integrity	`TEAM_SHOTS_CAP`	Chelsea: 15 projected shots inside the realistic envelope.
good	structure	`EXACTLY_ONE_GOALKEEPER`	Bournemouth: exactly one goalkeeper (Đorđe Petrović).
good	integrity	`SHOT_MATH_INTEGRITY`	All 11 projected lines have consistent shot components.
good	integrity	`TEAM_SHOTS_CAP`	Bournemouth: 15 projected shots inside the realistic envelope.
good	provenance	`STANDING_AVAILABLE`	League-standing context available for both sides.
good	provenance	`RANKING_PROVENANCE`	22/22 starters carry a ranking source.
good	provenance	`DATA_DEPTH`	22/22 starters have adequate recent history.
good	provenance	`PREGAME_DIRECTION_AGREES`	Pregame favorite agrees with the model winner (Chelsea).
good	provenance	`PREGAME_TOTAL_CONSISTENT`	Pregame total 3.14 ~ Poisson total 3.14.

Notes (1)

Sev	Category	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
info	model_behavior	`MOST_LIKELY_IS_MODE`	Decisive-score substitution policy: the modal scoreline is a draw 1-1 (p=0.1036); the headline shows the most likely decisive score 2-1 (p=0.0960) for the probability favorite Chelsea.	2-1	1-1

Ipswich vs Fulham

20261010_FUL@IPS · Premier League

CLEAN risk 0 pred 1-0 (Ipswich)λ 1.41 / 1.30conf 0.68 info 1 good 39

Problems (0)

none

Lambda evolution (audit trail)

Stage	Home λ	Away λ
Pre-competitive-floor	1.410	1.302
Pre-calibration	1.410	1.302
Final	1.410	1.302

competition_calibration_scale: 1.0competition_observed_total_goals: 0.0quality_gap_applied: Truemismatch_score_pressure_applied: Falsecompetitive_underdog_floor_applied: Falsestage_discount: 1.0

Scoreline distribution

Top scorelines	P
1-0	9.2%
1-1	12.3%
2-1	8.6%
0-1	8.5%
1-2	7.9%

Outcome — home 39.5% · draw 25.9% · away 34.5%

Markets — O2.5 50.9% · BTTS 55.1%

Passed checks (39)

Sev	Category	Rule	Message
good	integrity	`SCHEMA_KEYS_PRESENT`	All required sections present.
good	structure	`LINEUP_ELEVEN`	Ipswich: 11 starters.
good	structure	`FORMATION_VALID`	Ipswich: formation 4-2-3-1 valid.
good	structure	`LINEUP_ELEVEN`	Fulham: 11 starters.
good	structure	`FORMATION_VALID`	Fulham: formation 4-2-3-1 valid.
good	probability	`OUTCOME_SUMS_ONE`	outcome sums to 1.0000.
good	probability	`MARKETS_COMPLEMENTARY`	Over/Under and BTTS pairs each sum to 1.
good	probability	`SCORELINE_PROBS_NONNEG`	All scoreline probabilities within [0,1].
good	probability	`GRID_SUMS_ONE`	scoreline grid sums to 0.9964.
good	model_behavior	`GRID_REPRODUCIBLE`	Grid reproducible from lambdas (max cell diff 0.0012).
good	probability	`MLS_PROBABILITY_MATCHES`	Headline probability matches the grid.
good	model_behavior	`OUTCOME_MATCHES_GRID`	Outcome split matches the grid (max diff 0.0019).
good	model_behavior	`MARKETS_MATCH_GRID`	Markets match the grid (max diff 0.0037).
good	integrity	`WINNER_IS_VALID_TEAM`	predicted_winner 'Ipswich' is a participating side.
good	model_behavior	`WINNER_MATCHES_SCORE`	Winner agrees with headline score (Ipswich).
good	model_behavior	`WINNER_PROBABILITY_DIRECTION`	Winner matches the win-probability favorite (Ipswich).
good	model_behavior	`LAMBDA_BOUNDS`	Lambdas in range (home 1.41, away 1.302).
good	provenance	`LAMBDA_FACTORS_PRESENT`	lambda_factors audit trail present.
good	model_behavior	`LAMBDA_CONSISTENCY`	Lambda identical across prediction / antagonist / factors.
good	model_behavior	`CALIBRATION_SCALE_BOUNDS`	Calibration scale 1.0 in range.
good	provenance	`XGBOOST_REASONING_PRESENT`	Match-level xgboost_reasoning present (XGBoost).
good	model_behavior	`LAMBDA_REASONING_CONSISTENCY`	Lambdas in xgboost_reasoning match final Poisson lambdas (1.41 / 1.302).
good	provenance	`FBREF_PRIORS_ACTIVE`	FBref team priors applied (blend weight 0.192, home E[lambda]=1.379, away E[lambda]=1.379).
good	provenance	`XGBOOST_PLAYER_REASONING`	All 22 starters carry full XGBoost / FBref reasoning.
good	integrity	`TEAM_GOALS_SUM`	Ipswich: player goals reconcile to team total (1).
good	integrity	`TEAM_GOALS_SUM`	Fulham: player goals reconcile to team total (0).
good	structure	`POSSESSION_SUMS_100`	Possession sums to 100.0%.
good	integrity	`PLAYER_STAT_REALISM`	All 22 projected player lines pass realism checks.
good	structure	`EXACTLY_ONE_GOALKEEPER`	Ipswich: exactly one goalkeeper (Christian Walton).
good	integrity	`SHOT_MATH_INTEGRITY`	All 11 projected lines have consistent shot components.
good	integrity	`TEAM_SHOTS_CAP`	Ipswich: 11 projected shots inside the realistic envelope.
good	structure	`EXACTLY_ONE_GOALKEEPER`	Fulham: exactly one goalkeeper (Bernd Leno).
good	integrity	`SHOT_MATH_INTEGRITY`	All 11 projected lines have consistent shot components.
good	integrity	`TEAM_SHOTS_CAP`	Fulham: 17 projected shots inside the realistic envelope.
good	provenance	`STANDING_AVAILABLE`	League-standing context available for both sides.
good	provenance	`RANKING_PROVENANCE`	22/22 starters carry a ranking source.
good	provenance	`DATA_DEPTH`	20/22 starters have adequate recent history.
good	provenance	`PREGAME_DIRECTION_AGREES`	Pregame favorite agrees with the model winner (Ipswich).
good	provenance	`PREGAME_TOTAL_CONSISTENT`	Pregame total 2.71 ~ Poisson total 2.71.

Notes (1)

Sev	Category	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
info	model_behavior	`MOST_LIKELY_IS_MODE`	Decisive-score substitution policy: the modal scoreline is a draw 1-1 (p=0.1231); the headline shows the most likely decisive score 1-0 (p=0.0925) for the probability favorite Ipswich.	1-0	1-1

Barcelona vs Getafe

20261010_GET@BAR · LaLiga

CLEAN risk 0 pred 3-0 (Barcelona)λ 3.74 / 0.88conf 0.85 good 40

Problems (0)

none

Lambda evolution (audit trail)

Stage	Home λ	Away λ
Pre-mismatch	3.562	1.054
Pre-calibration	3.492	0.878
Final	3.739	0.877

competition_calibration_scale: 1.0competition_observed_total_goals: 0.0quality_gap_applied: Truemismatch_score_pressure_applied: Truecompetitive_underdog_floor_applied: Falsestage_discount: 1.0

Scoreline distribution

Top scorelines	P
3-0	8.7%
4-0	8.1%
3-1	7.6%
4-1	7.1%
2-0	7.0%

Outcome — home 87.2% · draw 8.2% · away 4.6%

Markets — O2.5 83.8% · BTTS 57.0%

Passed checks (40)

Sev	Category	Rule	Message
good	integrity	`SCHEMA_KEYS_PRESENT`	All required sections present.
good	structure	`LINEUP_ELEVEN`	Barcelona: 11 starters.
good	structure	`FORMATION_VALID`	Barcelona: formation 4-3-3 valid.
good	structure	`LINEUP_ELEVEN`	Getafe: 11 starters.
good	structure	`FORMATION_VALID`	Getafe: formation 3-5-2 valid.
good	probability	`OUTCOME_SUMS_ONE`	outcome sums to 0.9999.
good	probability	`MARKETS_COMPLEMENTARY`	Over/Under and BTTS pairs each sum to 1.
good	probability	`SCORELINE_PROBS_NONNEG`	All scoreline probabilities within [0,1].
good	probability	`GRID_SUMS_ONE`	scoreline grid sums to 0.9962.
good	model_behavior	`GRID_REPRODUCIBLE`	Grid reproducible from lambdas (max cell diff 0.0004).
good	model_behavior	`MOST_LIKELY_IS_MODE`	Headline score 3-0 is the modal scoreline.
good	probability	`MLS_PROBABILITY_MATCHES`	Headline probability matches the grid.
good	model_behavior	`OUTCOME_MATCHES_GRID`	Outcome split matches the grid (max diff 0.0018).
good	model_behavior	`MARKETS_MATCH_GRID`	Markets match the grid (max diff 0.0037).
good	integrity	`WINNER_IS_VALID_TEAM`	predicted_winner 'Barcelona' is a participating side.
good	model_behavior	`WINNER_MATCHES_SCORE`	Winner agrees with headline score (Barcelona).
good	model_behavior	`WINNER_PROBABILITY_DIRECTION`	Winner matches the win-probability favorite (Barcelona).
good	model_behavior	`LAMBDA_BOUNDS`	Lambdas in range (home 3.739, away 0.877).
good	provenance	`LAMBDA_FACTORS_PRESENT`	lambda_factors audit trail present.
good	model_behavior	`LAMBDA_CONSISTENCY`	Lambda identical across prediction / antagonist / factors.
good	model_behavior	`CALIBRATION_SCALE_BOUNDS`	Calibration scale 1.0 in range.
good	provenance	`XGBOOST_REASONING_PRESENT`	Match-level xgboost_reasoning present (XGBoost).
good	model_behavior	`LAMBDA_REASONING_CONSISTENCY`	Lambdas in xgboost_reasoning match final Poisson lambdas (3.739 / 0.877).
good	provenance	`FBREF_PRIORS_ACTIVE`	FBref team priors applied (blend weight 0.228, home E[lambda]=0.896, away E[lambda]=0.988).
good	provenance	`XGBOOST_PLAYER_REASONING`	All 22 starters carry full XGBoost / FBref reasoning.
good	integrity	`TEAM_GOALS_SUM`	Barcelona: player goals reconcile to team total (3).
good	integrity	`TEAM_GOALS_SUM`	Getafe: player goals reconcile to team total (0).
good	structure	`POSSESSION_SUMS_100`	Possession sums to 100.0%.
good	integrity	`PLAYER_STAT_REALISM`	All 22 projected player lines pass realism checks.
good	structure	`EXACTLY_ONE_GOALKEEPER`	Barcelona: exactly one goalkeeper (Joan García).
good	integrity	`SHOT_MATH_INTEGRITY`	All 11 projected lines have consistent shot components.
good	integrity	`TEAM_SHOTS_CAP`	Barcelona: 21 projected shots inside the realistic envelope.
good	structure	`EXACTLY_ONE_GOALKEEPER`	Getafe: exactly one goalkeeper (David Soria).
good	integrity	`SHOT_MATH_INTEGRITY`	All 11 projected lines have consistent shot components.
good	integrity	`TEAM_SHOTS_CAP`	Getafe: 13 projected shots inside the realistic envelope.
good	provenance	`STANDING_AVAILABLE`	League-standing context available for both sides.
good	provenance	`RANKING_PROVENANCE`	22/22 starters carry a ranking source.
good	provenance	`DATA_DEPTH`	22/22 starters have adequate recent history.
good	provenance	`PREGAME_DIRECTION_AGREES`	Pregame favorite agrees with the model winner (Barcelona).
good	provenance	`PREGAME_TOTAL_CONSISTENT`	Pregame total 4.62 ~ Poisson total 4.62.

Arsenal vs Leeds

20261010_LEE@ARS · Premier League

CLEAN risk 0 pred 2-1 (Arsenal)λ 2.11 / 1.17conf 0.76 good 40

Problems (0)

none

Lambda evolution (audit trail)

Stage	Home λ	Away λ
Pre-mismatch	1.986	1.287
Pre-competitive-floor	2.233	1.238
Pre-calibration	1.891	0.990
Final	2.106	1.167

competition_calibration_scale: 1.0competition_observed_total_goals: 0.0quality_gap_applied: Truemismatch_score_pressure_applied: Truecompetitive_underdog_floor_applied: Falsestage_discount: 1.0

Scoreline distribution

Top scorelines	P
2-1	9.8%
1-1	9.4%
2-0	8.4%
1-0	7.9%
3-1	6.9%

Outcome — home 58.8% · draw 20.8% · away 20.4%

Markets — O2.5 63.5% · BTTS 60.5%

Passed checks (40)

Sev	Category	Rule	Message
good	integrity	`SCHEMA_KEYS_PRESENT`	All required sections present.
good	structure	`LINEUP_ELEVEN`	Arsenal: 11 starters.
good	structure	`FORMATION_VALID`	Arsenal: formation 4-2-3-1 valid.
good	structure	`LINEUP_ELEVEN`	Leeds: 11 starters.
good	structure	`FORMATION_VALID`	Leeds: formation 3-4-2-1 valid.
good	probability	`OUTCOME_SUMS_ONE`	outcome sums to 1.0000.
good	probability	`MARKETS_COMPLEMENTARY`	Over/Under and BTTS pairs each sum to 1.
good	probability	`SCORELINE_PROBS_NONNEG`	All scoreline probabilities within [0,1].
good	probability	`GRID_SUMS_ONE`	scoreline grid sums to 0.9961.
good	model_behavior	`GRID_REPRODUCIBLE`	Grid reproducible from lambdas (max cell diff 0.0006).
good	model_behavior	`MOST_LIKELY_IS_MODE`	Headline score 2-1 is the modal scoreline.
good	probability	`MLS_PROBABILITY_MATCHES`	Headline probability matches the grid.
good	model_behavior	`OUTCOME_MATCHES_GRID`	Outcome split matches the grid (max diff 0.0023).
good	model_behavior	`MARKETS_MATCH_GRID`	Markets match the grid (max diff 0.0039).
good	integrity	`WINNER_IS_VALID_TEAM`	predicted_winner 'Arsenal' is a participating side.
good	model_behavior	`WINNER_MATCHES_SCORE`	Winner agrees with headline score (Arsenal).
good	model_behavior	`WINNER_PROBABILITY_DIRECTION`	Winner matches the win-probability favorite (Arsenal).
good	model_behavior	`LAMBDA_BOUNDS`	Lambdas in range (home 2.106, away 1.167).
good	provenance	`LAMBDA_FACTORS_PRESENT`	lambda_factors audit trail present.
good	model_behavior	`LAMBDA_CONSISTENCY`	Lambda identical across prediction / antagonist / factors.
good	model_behavior	`CALIBRATION_SCALE_BOUNDS`	Calibration scale 1.0 in range.
good	provenance	`XGBOOST_REASONING_PRESENT`	Match-level xgboost_reasoning present (XGBoost).
good	model_behavior	`LAMBDA_REASONING_CONSISTENCY`	Lambdas in xgboost_reasoning match final Poisson lambdas (2.106 / 1.167).
good	provenance	`FBREF_PRIORS_ACTIVE`	FBref team priors applied (blend weight 0.192, home E[lambda]=1.379, away E[lambda]=1.379).
good	provenance	`XGBOOST_PLAYER_REASONING`	All 22 starters carry full XGBoost / FBref reasoning.
good	integrity	`TEAM_GOALS_SUM`	Arsenal: player goals reconcile to team total (2).
good	integrity	`TEAM_GOALS_SUM`	Leeds: player goals reconcile to team total (1).
good	structure	`POSSESSION_SUMS_100`	Possession sums to 100.0%.
good	integrity	`PLAYER_STAT_REALISM`	All 22 projected player lines pass realism checks.
good	structure	`EXACTLY_ONE_GOALKEEPER`	Arsenal: exactly one goalkeeper (David Raya).
good	integrity	`SHOT_MATH_INTEGRITY`	All 11 projected lines have consistent shot components.
good	integrity	`TEAM_SHOTS_CAP`	Arsenal: 16 projected shots inside the realistic envelope.
good	structure	`EXACTLY_ONE_GOALKEEPER`	Leeds: exactly one goalkeeper (James Trafford).
good	integrity	`SHOT_MATH_INTEGRITY`	All 11 projected lines have consistent shot components.
good	integrity	`TEAM_SHOTS_CAP`	Leeds: 14 projected shots inside the realistic envelope.
good	provenance	`STANDING_AVAILABLE`	League-standing context available for both sides.
good	provenance	`RANKING_PROVENANCE`	22/22 starters carry a ranking source.
good	provenance	`DATA_DEPTH`	22/22 starters have adequate recent history.
good	provenance	`PREGAME_DIRECTION_AGREES`	Pregame favorite agrees with the model winner (Arsenal).
good	provenance	`PREGAME_TOTAL_CONSISTENT`	Pregame total 3.27 ~ Poisson total 3.27.

Real Madrid vs Villarreal

20261010_VIL@RMA · LaLiga

CLEAN risk 0 pred 3-1 (Real Madrid)λ 3.39 / 1.74conf 0.79 good 40

Problems (0)

none

Lambda evolution (audit trail)

Stage	Home λ	Away λ
Pre-mismatch	3.220	1.918
Pre-calibration	3.157	1.598
Final	3.394	1.744

competition_calibration_scale: 1.0competition_observed_total_goals: 0.0quality_gap_applied: Truemismatch_score_pressure_applied: Truecompetitive_underdog_floor_applied: Falsestage_discount: 1.0

Scoreline distribution

Top scorelines	P
3-1	6.7%
2-1	5.9%
3-2	5.8%
4-1	5.7%
2-2	5.1%

Outcome — home 69.2% · draw 14.3% · away 16.6%

Markets — O2.5 88.6% · BTTS 79.8%

Passed checks (40)

Sev	Category	Rule	Message
good	integrity	`SCHEMA_KEYS_PRESENT`	All required sections present.
good	structure	`LINEUP_ELEVEN`	Real Madrid: 11 starters.
good	structure	`FORMATION_VALID`	Real Madrid: formation 4-2-3-1 valid.
good	structure	`LINEUP_ELEVEN`	Villarreal: 11 starters.
good	structure	`FORMATION_VALID`	Villarreal: formation 4-4-2 valid.
good	probability	`OUTCOME_SUMS_ONE`	outcome sums to 1.0000.
good	probability	`MARKETS_COMPLEMENTARY`	Over/Under and BTTS pairs each sum to 1.
good	probability	`SCORELINE_PROBS_NONNEG`	All scoreline probabilities within [0,1].
good	probability	`GRID_SUMS_ONE`	scoreline grid sums to 0.9964.
good	model_behavior	`GRID_REPRODUCIBLE`	Grid reproducible from lambdas (max cell diff 0.0003).
good	model_behavior	`MOST_LIKELY_IS_MODE`	Headline score 3-1 is the modal scoreline.
good	probability	`MLS_PROBABILITY_MATCHES`	Headline probability matches the grid.
good	model_behavior	`OUTCOME_MATCHES_GRID`	Outcome split matches the grid (max diff 0.0018).
good	model_behavior	`MARKETS_MATCH_GRID`	Markets match the grid (max diff 0.0037).
good	integrity	`WINNER_IS_VALID_TEAM`	predicted_winner 'Real Madrid' is a participating side.
good	model_behavior	`WINNER_MATCHES_SCORE`	Winner agrees with headline score (Real Madrid).
good	model_behavior	`WINNER_PROBABILITY_DIRECTION`	Winner matches the win-probability favorite (Real Madrid).
good	model_behavior	`LAMBDA_BOUNDS`	Lambdas in range (home 3.394, away 1.744).
good	provenance	`LAMBDA_FACTORS_PRESENT`	lambda_factors audit trail present.
good	model_behavior	`LAMBDA_CONSISTENCY`	Lambda identical across prediction / antagonist / factors.
good	model_behavior	`CALIBRATION_SCALE_BOUNDS`	Calibration scale 1.0 in range.
good	provenance	`XGBOOST_REASONING_PRESENT`	Match-level xgboost_reasoning present (XGBoost).
good	model_behavior	`LAMBDA_REASONING_CONSISTENCY`	Lambdas in xgboost_reasoning match final Poisson lambdas (3.394 / 1.744).
good	provenance	`FBREF_PRIORS_ACTIVE`	FBref team priors applied (blend weight 0.228, home E[lambda]=2.956, away E[lambda]=3.289).
good	provenance	`XGBOOST_PLAYER_REASONING`	All 22 starters carry full XGBoost / FBref reasoning.
good	integrity	`TEAM_GOALS_SUM`	Real Madrid: player goals reconcile to team total (3).
good	integrity	`TEAM_GOALS_SUM`	Villarreal: player goals reconcile to team total (1).
good	structure	`POSSESSION_SUMS_100`	Possession sums to 100.0%.
good	integrity	`PLAYER_STAT_REALISM`	All 22 projected player lines pass realism checks.
good	structure	`EXACTLY_ONE_GOALKEEPER`	Real Madrid: exactly one goalkeeper (Thibaut Courtois).
good	integrity	`SHOT_MATH_INTEGRITY`	All 11 projected lines have consistent shot components.
good	integrity	`TEAM_SHOTS_CAP`	Real Madrid: 20 projected shots inside the realistic envelope.
good	structure	`EXACTLY_ONE_GOALKEEPER`	Villarreal: exactly one goalkeeper (Péter Gulácsi).
good	integrity	`SHOT_MATH_INTEGRITY`	All 11 projected lines have consistent shot components.
good	integrity	`TEAM_SHOTS_CAP`	Villarreal: 13 projected shots inside the realistic envelope.
good	provenance	`STANDING_AVAILABLE`	League-standing context available for both sides.
good	provenance	`RANKING_PROVENANCE`	22/22 starters carry a ranking source.
good	provenance	`DATA_DEPTH`	22/22 starters have adequate recent history.
good	provenance	`PREGAME_DIRECTION_AGREES`	Pregame favorite agrees with the model winner (Real Madrid).
good	provenance	`PREGAME_TOTAL_CONSISTENT`	Pregame total 5.14 ~ Poisson total 5.14.

Rule catalogue

Rule	Description	Triggered
`SCHEMA_KEYS_PRESENT`	All required top-level sections exist in the artifact.	ok
`LINEUP_ELEVEN`	Each side fields exactly 11 starters.	ok
`FORMATION_VALID`	Formation string parses and its outfield lines sum to 10.	ok
`POSSESSION_SUMS_100`	Estimated possession of both teams sums to ~100%.	ok
`TEAM_GOALS_SUM`	Players' projected integer goals sum to the team's headline score.	ok
`TEAM_TOTALS_SCORE_MATCH`	team_totals.projected_goals equals the headline score component.	ok
`TEAM_EG_LAMBDA_MATCH`	team_totals.expected_goals matches the team's Poisson lambda.	ok
`PLAYER_STAT_REALISM`	Projected player lines are internally consistent (xG<=shots, accurate<=total passes, minutes/rating in range).	ok
`EXACTLY_ONE_GOALKEEPER`	Each starting XI fields exactly one goalkeeper.	ok
`SHOT_MATH_INTEGRITY`	Shot components are physically consistent (on target <= total, on+off <= total; blocked shots cannot be negative).	ok
`PLAYER_MINUTES_LEAGUE_CAP`	No player projects more minutes than the competition clock allows (90 + stoppage, or extra time in cups).	ok
`TEAM_SHOTS_CAP`	Team projected shots stay inside the realistic historical envelope (~35).	ok
`OUTCOME_SUMS_ONE`	home_win + draw + away_win sums to 1.	ok
`MARKETS_COMPLEMENTARY`	Over/Under and BTTS pairs each sum to 1.	ok
`GRID_SUMS_ONE`	The scoreline probability grid sums to ~1.	ok
`SCORELINE_PROBS_NONNEG`	Every scoreline probability is a valid [0,1] value.	ok
`GRID_REPRODUCIBLE`	The reported scoreline grid is reproducible from the lambdas.	ok
`MOST_LIKELY_IS_MODE`	The headline most-likely score is the distribution's modal scoreline.	ok
`MLS_PROBABILITY_MATCHES`	most_likely_score_probability equals the grid value of that score.	ok
`OUTCOME_MATCHES_GRID`	The reported win/draw/loss split is derivable from the grid.	ok
`MARKETS_MATCH_GRID`	The reported Over/Under and BTTS are derivable from the grid.	ok
`WINNER_MATCHES_SCORE`	predicted_winner agrees with the headline score direction.	ok
`WINNER_PROBABILITY_DIRECTION`	predicted_winner is the team with the higher win probability.	ok
`WINNER_IS_VALID_TEAM`	predicted_winner names a participating team (or Draw).	ok
`MODAL_OUTCOME_IS_DRAW`	Draw is the single largest outcome bucket while a team is named.	ok
`LAMBDA_BOUNDS`	Both lambdas fall inside the engine's [0.55, 5.00] envelope.	ok
`LAMBDA_CONSISTENCY`	The lambda is identical across prediction / antagonist / lambda_factors.	ok
`LAMBDA_FACTORS_PRESENT`	The lambda_factors decomposition (audit trail) is present.	ok
`CALIBRATION_SCALE_BOUNDS`	competition_calibration_scale stays within [0.85, 1.35].	ok
`CALIBRATION_RECORDED`	When calibration ran, the pre-calibration lambdas are recorded.	ok
`STANDING_AVAILABLE`	League-standing context is available for a domestic fixture.	ok
`RANKING_PROVENANCE`	Player ranking/quality signals carry a recognised source.	ok
`DATA_DEPTH`	Starters have enough recent games to model rather than synthesise.	ok
`FBREF_PRIORS_ACTIVE`	FBref season-prior files exist so that branch is not silently inert.	2 problems
`XGBOOST_REASONING_PRESENT`	Match-level xgboost_reasoning payload is present with full tracing pipeline.	ok
`XGBOOST_PLAYER_REASONING`	Starters have xgboost_reasoning metadata tracking feature contributions and FBref priors.	ok
`LAMBDA_REASONING_CONSISTENCY`	Lambdas reported in xgboost_reasoning match the final Poisson lambdas.	ok
`PREGAME_DIRECTION_AGREES`	The pregame fair-line favorite agrees with the model winner.	ok
`PREGAME_TOTAL_CONSISTENT`	The pregame expected total is close to the sum of the lambdas.	ok
`RESULT_WINNER_HIT`	The predicted winner matched the real result.	ok
`RESULT_EXACT_SCORE_HIT`	The headline score matched the real scoreline exactly.	ok
`RESULT_OU_HIT`	The Over/Under 2.5 lean matched reality.	ok
`RESULT_BTTS_HIT`	The BTTS lean matched reality.	ok
`RESULT_CONFIDENT_MISS`	A high-confidence prediction did not reach the real outcome.	ok
`OUTCOME_BRIER`	Brier score of the win/draw/loss probabilities vs the real result.	ok

Generated 2026-10-10 13:38:19 UTC · Soccer prediction reporting