Soccer prediction system deep audit

Slate 20261011 · immutable forensic review of 12 match prediction artifact(s)

Executive conclusion

In 5 match(es) the headline score is not the distribution's modal scoreline (decisive-score substitution or a selection issue) — see the MOST_LIKELY_IS_MODE findings.

At a glance

12matches audited

0critical

0errors

7warnings

0grid non-reproducible

5headline != modal

0winner disagreements

0lambda inconsistencies

0with real result

-winner hit-rate

-decisive hit-rate

0%predicted draws

-actual draws

0confident misses

-mean Brier

Matches

Alavés vs Atl. Madrid

20261011_ATM@ALA · LaLiga

WARNINGS risk 20 pred 1-2 (Atl. Madrid)λ 1.06 / 2.78conf 0.72 warning 2 good 39

Problems (2)

Sev	Category	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
warning	integrity	`PLAYER_STAT_REALISM`	Miguel Rodríguez (Alavés): accurate passes 35 exceed total passes 2.	35
warning	integrity	`PLAYER_STAT_REALISM`	Ángel Pérez (Alavés): accurate passes 35 exceed total passes 16.	35

Lambda evolution (audit trail)

Stage	Home λ	Away λ
Pre-mismatch	1.242	2.597
Pre-calibration	1.242	2.597
Final	1.061	2.778

competition_calibration_scale: 1.0competition_observed_total_goals: 0.0quality_gap_applied: Truemismatch_score_pressure_applied: Truecompetitive_underdog_floor_applied: Falsestage_discount: 1.0

Scoreline distribution

Top scorelines	P
1-2	8.8%
0-2	8.3%
1-3	8.2%
0-3	7.7%
1-1	6.4%

Outcome — home 11.8% · draw 15.1% · away 73.1%

Markets — O2.5 73.7% · BTTS 61.4%

Passed checks (39)

Sev	Category	Rule	Message
good	integrity	`SCHEMA_KEYS_PRESENT`	All required sections present.
good	structure	`LINEUP_ELEVEN`	Alavés: 11 starters.
good	structure	`FORMATION_VALID`	Alavés: formation 3-5-2 valid.
good	structure	`LINEUP_ELEVEN`	Atl. Madrid: 11 starters.
good	structure	`FORMATION_VALID`	Atl. Madrid: formation 3-5-2 valid.
good	probability	`OUTCOME_SUMS_ONE`	outcome sums to 1.0000.
good	probability	`MARKETS_COMPLEMENTARY`	Over/Under and BTTS pairs each sum to 1.
good	probability	`SCORELINE_PROBS_NONNEG`	All scoreline probabilities within [0,1].
good	probability	`GRID_SUMS_ONE`	scoreline grid sums to 0.9972.
good	model_behavior	`GRID_REPRODUCIBLE`	Grid reproducible from lambdas (max cell diff 0.0003).
good	model_behavior	`MOST_LIKELY_IS_MODE`	Headline score 1-2 is the modal scoreline.
good	probability	`MLS_PROBABILITY_MATCHES`	Headline probability matches the grid.
good	model_behavior	`OUTCOME_MATCHES_GRID`	Outcome split matches the grid (max diff 0.0015).
good	model_behavior	`MARKETS_MATCH_GRID`	Markets match the grid (max diff 0.0028).
good	integrity	`WINNER_IS_VALID_TEAM`	predicted_winner 'Atl. Madrid' is a participating side.
good	model_behavior	`WINNER_MATCHES_SCORE`	Winner agrees with headline score (Atl. Madrid).
good	model_behavior	`WINNER_PROBABILITY_DIRECTION`	Winner matches the win-probability favorite (Atl. Madrid).
good	model_behavior	`LAMBDA_BOUNDS`	Lambdas in range (home 1.061, away 2.778).
good	provenance	`LAMBDA_FACTORS_PRESENT`	lambda_factors audit trail present.
good	model_behavior	`LAMBDA_CONSISTENCY`	Lambda identical across prediction / antagonist / factors.
good	model_behavior	`CALIBRATION_SCALE_BOUNDS`	Calibration scale 1.0 in range.
good	provenance	`XGBOOST_REASONING_PRESENT`	Match-level xgboost_reasoning present (XGBoost).
good	model_behavior	`LAMBDA_REASONING_CONSISTENCY`	Lambdas in xgboost_reasoning match final Poisson lambdas (1.061 / 2.778).
good	provenance	`FBREF_PRIORS_ACTIVE`	FBref team priors applied (blend weight 0.228, home E[lambda]=2.877, away E[lambda]=2.886).
good	provenance	`XGBOOST_PLAYER_REASONING`	All 22 starters carry full XGBoost / FBref reasoning.
good	integrity	`TEAM_GOALS_SUM`	Alavés: player goals reconcile to team total (1).
good	integrity	`TEAM_GOALS_SUM`	Atl. Madrid: player goals reconcile to team total (2).
good	structure	`POSSESSION_SUMS_100`	Possession sums to 100.0%.
good	structure	`EXACTLY_ONE_GOALKEEPER`	Alavés: exactly one goalkeeper (Antonio Sivera).
good	integrity	`SHOT_MATH_INTEGRITY`	All 11 projected lines have consistent shot components.
good	integrity	`TEAM_SHOTS_CAP`	Alavés: 5 projected shots inside the realistic envelope.
good	structure	`EXACTLY_ONE_GOALKEEPER`	Atl. Madrid: exactly one goalkeeper (Jan Oblak).
good	integrity	`SHOT_MATH_INTEGRITY`	All 11 projected lines have consistent shot components.
good	integrity	`TEAM_SHOTS_CAP`	Atl. Madrid: 16 projected shots inside the realistic envelope.
good	provenance	`STANDING_AVAILABLE`	League-standing context available for both sides.
good	provenance	`RANKING_PROVENANCE`	22/22 starters carry a ranking source.
good	provenance	`DATA_DEPTH`	22/22 starters have adequate recent history.
good	provenance	`PREGAME_DIRECTION_AGREES`	Pregame favorite agrees with the model winner (Atl. Madrid).
good	provenance	`PREGAME_TOTAL_CONSISTENT`	Pregame total 3.84 ~ Poisson total 3.84.

Real Sociedad vs Deportivo

20261011_COR@RSO · LaLiga

WARNINGS risk 10 pred 1-0 (Real Sociedad)λ 1.50 / 0.81conf 0.74 warning 1 good 39

Problems (1)

Sev	Category	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
warning	provenance	`FBREF_PRIORS_ACTIVE`	FBref dataset files not found; team priors inactive.

Lambda evolution (audit trail)

Stage	Home λ	Away λ
Pre-competitive-floor	1.498	0.805
Pre-calibration	1.467	0.823
Final	1.498	0.805

competition_calibration_scale: 1.0competition_observed_total_goals: 0.0quality_gap_applied: Truemismatch_score_pressure_applied: Falsecompetitive_underdog_floor_applied: Falsestage_discount: 1.0

Scoreline distribution

Top scorelines	P
1-0	14.9%
1-1	12.1%
2-0	11.2%
0-0	10.1%
2-1	9.0%

Outcome — home 53.5% · draw 26.4% · away 20.1%

Markets — O2.5 40.5% · BTTS 43.0%

Passed checks (39)

Sev	Category	Rule	Message
good	integrity	`SCHEMA_KEYS_PRESENT`	All required sections present.
good	structure	`LINEUP_ELEVEN`	Real Sociedad: 11 starters.
good	structure	`FORMATION_VALID`	Real Sociedad: formation 4-4-2 valid.
good	structure	`LINEUP_ELEVEN`	Deportivo: 11 starters.
good	structure	`FORMATION_VALID`	Deportivo: formation 4-2-3-1 valid.
good	probability	`OUTCOME_SUMS_ONE`	outcome sums to 1.0000.
good	probability	`MARKETS_COMPLEMENTARY`	Over/Under and BTTS pairs each sum to 1.
good	probability	`SCORELINE_PROBS_NONNEG`	All scoreline probabilities within [0,1].
good	probability	`GRID_SUMS_ONE`	scoreline grid sums to 0.9971.
good	model_behavior	`GRID_REPRODUCIBLE`	Grid reproducible from lambdas (max cell diff 0.0009).
good	model_behavior	`MOST_LIKELY_IS_MODE`	Headline score 1-0 is the modal scoreline.
good	probability	`MLS_PROBABILITY_MATCHES`	Headline probability matches the grid.
good	model_behavior	`OUTCOME_MATCHES_GRID`	Outcome split matches the grid (max diff 0.0014).
good	model_behavior	`MARKETS_MATCH_GRID`	Markets match the grid (max diff 0.0030).
good	integrity	`WINNER_IS_VALID_TEAM`	predicted_winner 'Real Sociedad' is a participating side.
good	model_behavior	`WINNER_MATCHES_SCORE`	Winner agrees with headline score (Real Sociedad).
good	model_behavior	`WINNER_PROBABILITY_DIRECTION`	Winner matches the win-probability favorite (Real Sociedad).
good	model_behavior	`LAMBDA_BOUNDS`	Lambdas in range (home 1.498, away 0.805).
good	provenance	`LAMBDA_FACTORS_PRESENT`	lambda_factors audit trail present.
good	model_behavior	`LAMBDA_CONSISTENCY`	Lambda identical across prediction / antagonist / factors.
good	model_behavior	`CALIBRATION_SCALE_BOUNDS`	Calibration scale 1.0 in range.
good	provenance	`XGBOOST_REASONING_PRESENT`	Match-level xgboost_reasoning present (XGBoost).
good	model_behavior	`LAMBDA_REASONING_CONSISTENCY`	Lambdas in xgboost_reasoning match final Poisson lambdas (1.498 / 0.805).
good	provenance	`XGBOOST_PLAYER_REASONING`	All 22 starters carry full XGBoost / FBref reasoning.
good	integrity	`TEAM_GOALS_SUM`	Real Sociedad: player goals reconcile to team total (1).
good	integrity	`TEAM_GOALS_SUM`	Deportivo: player goals reconcile to team total (0).
good	structure	`POSSESSION_SUMS_100`	Possession sums to 100.0%.
good	integrity	`PLAYER_STAT_REALISM`	All 22 projected player lines pass realism checks.
good	structure	`EXACTLY_ONE_GOALKEEPER`	Real Sociedad: exactly one goalkeeper (Álex Remiro).
good	integrity	`SHOT_MATH_INTEGRITY`	All 11 projected lines have consistent shot components.
good	integrity	`TEAM_SHOTS_CAP`	Real Sociedad: 13 projected shots inside the realistic envelope.
good	structure	`EXACTLY_ONE_GOALKEEPER`	Deportivo: exactly one goalkeeper (Leo Román).
good	integrity	`SHOT_MATH_INTEGRITY`	All 11 projected lines have consistent shot components.
good	integrity	`TEAM_SHOTS_CAP`	Deportivo: 12 projected shots inside the realistic envelope.
good	provenance	`STANDING_AVAILABLE`	League-standing context available for both sides.
good	provenance	`RANKING_PROVENANCE`	22/22 starters carry a ranking source.
good	provenance	`DATA_DEPTH`	22/22 starters have adequate recent history.
good	provenance	`PREGAME_DIRECTION_AGREES`	Pregame favorite agrees with the model winner (Real Sociedad).
good	provenance	`PREGAME_TOTAL_CONSISTENT`	Pregame total 2.30 ~ Poisson total 2.30.

Málaga vs Espanyol

20261011_ESP@MCF · LaLiga

WARNINGS risk 10 pred 0-1 (Espanyol)λ 0.77 / 1.26conf 0.62 warning 1 good 39

Problems (1)

Sev	Category	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
warning	integrity	`PLAYER_STAT_REALISM`	Juan Cruz (Málaga): accurate passes 35 exceed total passes 10.	35

Lambda evolution (audit trail)

Stage	Home λ	Away λ
Pre-competitive-floor	0.765	1.257
Pre-calibration	0.765	1.257
Final	0.765	1.257

competition_calibration_scale: 1.0competition_observed_total_goals: 0.0quality_gap_applied: Truemismatch_score_pressure_applied: Falsecompetitive_underdog_floor_applied: Falsestage_discount: 1.0

Scoreline distribution

Top scorelines	P
0-1	16.6%
0-0	13.3%
1-1	12.8%
0-2	10.5%
1-0	10.0%

Outcome — home 22.5% · draw 29.6% · away 47.9%

Markets — O2.5 32.9% · BTTS 38.4%

Passed checks (39)

Sev	Category	Rule	Message
good	integrity	`SCHEMA_KEYS_PRESENT`	All required sections present.
good	structure	`LINEUP_ELEVEN`	Málaga: 11 starters.
good	structure	`FORMATION_VALID`	Málaga: formation 3-5-2 valid.
good	structure	`LINEUP_ELEVEN`	Espanyol: 11 starters.
good	structure	`FORMATION_VALID`	Espanyol: formation 3-5-2 valid.
good	probability	`OUTCOME_SUMS_ONE`	outcome sums to 1.0000.
good	probability	`MARKETS_COMPLEMENTARY`	Over/Under and BTTS pairs each sum to 1.
good	probability	`SCORELINE_PROBS_NONNEG`	All scoreline probabilities within [0,1].
good	probability	`GRID_SUMS_ONE`	scoreline grid sums to 0.9977.
good	model_behavior	`GRID_REPRODUCIBLE`	Grid reproducible from lambdas (max cell diff 0.0010).
good	model_behavior	`MOST_LIKELY_IS_MODE`	Headline score 0-1 is the modal scoreline.
good	probability	`MLS_PROBABILITY_MATCHES`	Headline probability matches the grid.
good	model_behavior	`OUTCOME_MATCHES_GRID`	Outcome split matches the grid (max diff 0.0012).
good	model_behavior	`MARKETS_MATCH_GRID`	Markets match the grid (max diff 0.0024).
good	integrity	`WINNER_IS_VALID_TEAM`	predicted_winner 'Espanyol' is a participating side.
good	model_behavior	`WINNER_MATCHES_SCORE`	Winner agrees with headline score (Espanyol).
good	model_behavior	`WINNER_PROBABILITY_DIRECTION`	Winner matches the win-probability favorite (Espanyol).
good	model_behavior	`LAMBDA_BOUNDS`	Lambdas in range (home 0.765, away 1.257).
good	provenance	`LAMBDA_FACTORS_PRESENT`	lambda_factors audit trail present.
good	model_behavior	`LAMBDA_CONSISTENCY`	Lambda identical across prediction / antagonist / factors.
good	model_behavior	`CALIBRATION_SCALE_BOUNDS`	Calibration scale 1.0 in range.
good	provenance	`XGBOOST_REASONING_PRESENT`	Match-level xgboost_reasoning present (XGBoost).
good	model_behavior	`LAMBDA_REASONING_CONSISTENCY`	Lambdas in xgboost_reasoning match final Poisson lambdas (0.765 / 1.257).
good	provenance	`FBREF_PRIORS_ACTIVE`	FBref team priors applied (blend weight 0.228, home E[lambda]=0.412, away E[lambda]=0.407).
good	provenance	`XGBOOST_PLAYER_REASONING`	All 22 starters carry full XGBoost / FBref reasoning.
good	integrity	`TEAM_GOALS_SUM`	Málaga: player goals reconcile to team total (0).
good	integrity	`TEAM_GOALS_SUM`	Espanyol: player goals reconcile to team total (1).
good	structure	`POSSESSION_SUMS_100`	Possession sums to 100.0%.
good	structure	`EXACTLY_ONE_GOALKEEPER`	Málaga: exactly one goalkeeper (Alfonso Herrero).
good	integrity	`SHOT_MATH_INTEGRITY`	All 11 projected lines have consistent shot components.
good	integrity	`TEAM_SHOTS_CAP`	Málaga: 8 projected shots inside the realistic envelope.
good	structure	`EXACTLY_ONE_GOALKEEPER`	Espanyol: exactly one goalkeeper (Marko Dmitrović).
good	integrity	`SHOT_MATH_INTEGRITY`	All 11 projected lines have consistent shot components.
good	integrity	`TEAM_SHOTS_CAP`	Espanyol: 10 projected shots inside the realistic envelope.
good	provenance	`STANDING_AVAILABLE`	League-standing context available for both sides.
good	provenance	`RANKING_PROVENANCE`	22/22 starters carry a ranking source.
good	provenance	`DATA_DEPTH`	18/22 starters have adequate recent history.
good	provenance	`PREGAME_DIRECTION_AGREES`	Pregame favorite agrees with the model winner (Espanyol).
good	provenance	`PREGAME_TOTAL_CONSISTENT`	Pregame total 2.02 ~ Poisson total 2.02.

Barcelona vs Getafe

20261011_GET@BAR · LaLiga

WARNINGS risk 10 pred 3-0 (Barcelona)λ 3.94 / 0.65conf 0.77 warning 1 good 39

Problems (1)

Sev	Category	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
warning	integrity	`PLAYER_STAT_REALISM`	Abdel Abqar (Getafe): accurate passes 31 exceed total passes 16.	31

Lambda evolution (audit trail)

Stage	Home λ	Away λ
Pre-mismatch	3.784	0.806
Pre-calibration	3.784	0.806
Final	3.944	0.650

competition_calibration_scale: 1.0competition_observed_total_goals: 0.0quality_gap_applied: Truemismatch_score_pressure_applied: Truecompetitive_underdog_floor_applied: Falsestage_discount: 1.0

Scoreline distribution

Top scorelines	P
3-0	10.4%
4-0	10.3%
5-0	8.1%
2-0	7.9%
3-1	6.8%

Outcome — home 91.6% · draw 5.9% · away 2.5%

Markets — O2.5 83.5% · BTTS 46.9%

Passed checks (39)

Sev	Category	Rule	Message
good	integrity	`SCHEMA_KEYS_PRESENT`	All required sections present.
good	structure	`LINEUP_ELEVEN`	Barcelona: 11 starters.
good	structure	`FORMATION_VALID`	Barcelona: formation 3-5-2 valid.
good	structure	`LINEUP_ELEVEN`	Getafe: 11 starters.
good	structure	`FORMATION_VALID`	Getafe: formation 3-4-2-1 valid.
good	probability	`OUTCOME_SUMS_ONE`	outcome sums to 1.0000.
good	probability	`MARKETS_COMPLEMENTARY`	Over/Under and BTTS pairs each sum to 1.
good	probability	`SCORELINE_PROBS_NONNEG`	All scoreline probabilities within [0,1].
good	probability	`GRID_SUMS_ONE`	scoreline grid sums to 0.9976.
good	model_behavior	`GRID_REPRODUCIBLE`	Grid reproducible from lambdas (max cell diff 0.0008).
good	model_behavior	`MOST_LIKELY_IS_MODE`	Headline score 3-0 is the modal scoreline.
good	probability	`MLS_PROBABILITY_MATCHES`	Headline probability matches the grid.
good	model_behavior	`OUTCOME_MATCHES_GRID`	Outcome split matches the grid (max diff 0.0012).
good	model_behavior	`MARKETS_MATCH_GRID`	Markets match the grid (max diff 0.0024).
good	integrity	`WINNER_IS_VALID_TEAM`	predicted_winner 'Barcelona' is a participating side.
good	model_behavior	`WINNER_MATCHES_SCORE`	Winner agrees with headline score (Barcelona).
good	model_behavior	`WINNER_PROBABILITY_DIRECTION`	Winner matches the win-probability favorite (Barcelona).
good	model_behavior	`LAMBDA_BOUNDS`	Lambdas in range (home 3.944, away 0.65).
good	provenance	`LAMBDA_FACTORS_PRESENT`	lambda_factors audit trail present.
good	model_behavior	`LAMBDA_CONSISTENCY`	Lambda identical across prediction / antagonist / factors.
good	model_behavior	`CALIBRATION_SCALE_BOUNDS`	Calibration scale 1.0 in range.
good	provenance	`XGBOOST_REASONING_PRESENT`	Match-level xgboost_reasoning present (XGBoost).
good	model_behavior	`LAMBDA_REASONING_CONSISTENCY`	Lambdas in xgboost_reasoning match final Poisson lambdas (3.944 / 0.65).
good	provenance	`FBREF_PRIORS_ACTIVE`	FBref team priors applied (blend weight 0.228, home E[lambda]=0.896, away E[lambda]=0.988).
good	provenance	`XGBOOST_PLAYER_REASONING`	All 22 starters carry full XGBoost / FBref reasoning.
good	integrity	`TEAM_GOALS_SUM`	Barcelona: player goals reconcile to team total (3).
good	integrity	`TEAM_GOALS_SUM`	Getafe: player goals reconcile to team total (0).
good	structure	`POSSESSION_SUMS_100`	Possession sums to 100.0%.
good	structure	`EXACTLY_ONE_GOALKEEPER`	Barcelona: exactly one goalkeeper (Joan García).
good	integrity	`SHOT_MATH_INTEGRITY`	All 11 projected lines have consistent shot components.
good	integrity	`TEAM_SHOTS_CAP`	Barcelona: 21 projected shots inside the realistic envelope.
good	structure	`EXACTLY_ONE_GOALKEEPER`	Getafe: exactly one goalkeeper (David Soria).
good	integrity	`SHOT_MATH_INTEGRITY`	All 11 projected lines have consistent shot components.
good	integrity	`TEAM_SHOTS_CAP`	Getafe: 9 projected shots inside the realistic envelope.
good	provenance	`STANDING_AVAILABLE`	League-standing context available for both sides.
good	provenance	`RANKING_PROVENANCE`	22/22 starters carry a ranking source.
good	provenance	`DATA_DEPTH`	19/22 starters have adequate recent history.
good	provenance	`PREGAME_DIRECTION_AGREES`	Pregame favorite agrees with the model winner (Barcelona).
good	provenance	`PREGAME_TOTAL_CONSISTENT`	Pregame total 4.59 ~ Poisson total 4.59.

Crystal Palace vs Forest

20261011_NFO@CRY · Premier League

WARNINGS risk 10 pred 1-0 (Crystal Palace)λ 1.50 / 1.27conf 0.7 warning 1 info 1 good 38

Problems (1)

Sev	Category	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
warning	provenance	`FBREF_PRIORS_ACTIVE`	FBref dataset files not found; team priors inactive.

Lambda evolution (audit trail)

Stage	Home λ	Away λ
Pre-competitive-floor	1.502	1.271
Pre-calibration	1.502	1.271
Final	1.502	1.271

competition_calibration_scale: 1.0competition_observed_total_goals: 0.0quality_gap_applied: Falsemismatch_score_pressure_applied: Falsecompetitive_underdog_floor_applied: Falsestage_discount: 1.0

Scoreline distribution

Top scorelines	P
1-0	9.3%
1-1	12.0%
2-1	9.0%
0-1	7.8%
1-2	7.6%

Outcome — home 42.5% · draw 25.4% · away 32.0%

Markets — O2.5 52.4% · BTTS 56.0%

Passed checks (38)

Sev	Category	Rule	Message
good	integrity	`SCHEMA_KEYS_PRESENT`	All required sections present.
good	structure	`LINEUP_ELEVEN`	Crystal Palace: 11 starters.
good	structure	`FORMATION_VALID`	Crystal Palace: formation 3-4-2-1 valid.
good	structure	`LINEUP_ELEVEN`	Forest: 11 starters.
good	structure	`FORMATION_VALID`	Forest: formation 3-4-2-1 valid.
good	probability	`OUTCOME_SUMS_ONE`	outcome sums to 1.0001.
good	probability	`MARKETS_COMPLEMENTARY`	Over/Under and BTTS pairs each sum to 1.
good	probability	`SCORELINE_PROBS_NONNEG`	All scoreline probabilities within [0,1].
good	probability	`GRID_SUMS_ONE`	scoreline grid sums to 0.9962.
good	model_behavior	`GRID_REPRODUCIBLE`	Grid reproducible from lambdas (max cell diff 0.0011).
good	probability	`MLS_PROBABILITY_MATCHES`	Headline probability matches the grid.
good	model_behavior	`OUTCOME_MATCHES_GRID`	Outcome split matches the grid (max diff 0.0019).
good	model_behavior	`MARKETS_MATCH_GRID`	Markets match the grid (max diff 0.0039).
good	integrity	`WINNER_IS_VALID_TEAM`	predicted_winner 'Crystal Palace' is a participating side.
good	model_behavior	`WINNER_MATCHES_SCORE`	Winner agrees with headline score (Crystal Palace).
good	model_behavior	`WINNER_PROBABILITY_DIRECTION`	Winner matches the win-probability favorite (Crystal Palace).
good	model_behavior	`LAMBDA_BOUNDS`	Lambdas in range (home 1.502, away 1.271).
good	provenance	`LAMBDA_FACTORS_PRESENT`	lambda_factors audit trail present.
good	model_behavior	`LAMBDA_CONSISTENCY`	Lambda identical across prediction / antagonist / factors.
good	model_behavior	`CALIBRATION_SCALE_BOUNDS`	Calibration scale 1.0 in range.
good	provenance	`XGBOOST_REASONING_PRESENT`	Match-level xgboost_reasoning present (XGBoost).
good	model_behavior	`LAMBDA_REASONING_CONSISTENCY`	Lambdas in xgboost_reasoning match final Poisson lambdas (1.502 / 1.271).
good	provenance	`XGBOOST_PLAYER_REASONING`	All 22 starters carry full XGBoost / FBref reasoning.
good	integrity	`TEAM_GOALS_SUM`	Crystal Palace: player goals reconcile to team total (1).
good	integrity	`TEAM_GOALS_SUM`	Forest: player goals reconcile to team total (0).
good	structure	`POSSESSION_SUMS_100`	Possession sums to 100.0%.
good	integrity	`PLAYER_STAT_REALISM`	All 22 projected player lines pass realism checks.
good	structure	`EXACTLY_ONE_GOALKEEPER`	Crystal Palace: exactly one goalkeeper (Walter Benítez).
good	integrity	`SHOT_MATH_INTEGRITY`	All 11 projected lines have consistent shot components.
good	integrity	`TEAM_SHOTS_CAP`	Crystal Palace: 12 projected shots inside the realistic envelope.
good	structure	`EXACTLY_ONE_GOALKEEPER`	Forest: exactly one goalkeeper (Matz Sels).
good	integrity	`SHOT_MATH_INTEGRITY`	All 11 projected lines have consistent shot components.
good	integrity	`TEAM_SHOTS_CAP`	Forest: 12 projected shots inside the realistic envelope.
good	provenance	`STANDING_AVAILABLE`	League-standing context available for both sides.
good	provenance	`RANKING_PROVENANCE`	22/22 starters carry a ranking source.
good	provenance	`DATA_DEPTH`	21/22 starters have adequate recent history.
good	provenance	`PREGAME_DIRECTION_AGREES`	Pregame favorite agrees with the model winner (Crystal Palace).
good	provenance	`PREGAME_TOTAL_CONSISTENT`	Pregame total 2.77 ~ Poisson total 2.77.

Notes (1)

Sev	Category	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
info	model_behavior	`MOST_LIKELY_IS_MODE`	Decisive-score substitution policy: the modal scoreline is a draw 1-1 (p=0.1204); the headline shows the most likely decisive score 1-0 (p=0.0927) for the probability favorite Crystal Palace.	1-0	1-1

Racing Club vs Valencia

20261011_VAL@SAN · LaLiga

WARNINGS risk 10 pred 1-0 (Racing Club)λ 1.42 / 1.15conf 0.7 warning 1 info 1 good 38

Problems (1)

Sev	Category	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
warning	provenance	`FBREF_PRIORS_ACTIVE`	FBref dataset files not found; team priors inactive.

Lambda evolution (audit trail)

Stage	Home λ	Away λ
Pre-competitive-floor	1.422	1.151
Pre-calibration	1.464	1.119
Final	1.422	1.151

competition_calibration_scale: 1.0competition_observed_total_goals: 0.0quality_gap_applied: Falsemismatch_score_pressure_applied: Falsecompetitive_underdog_floor_applied: Falsestage_discount: 1.0

Scoreline distribution

Top scorelines	P
1-0	10.7%
1-1	12.6%
2-1	8.9%
0-1	8.7%
0-0	7.7%

Outcome — home 43.1% · draw 26.5% · away 30.4%

Markets — O2.5 47.5% · BTTS 52.0%

Passed checks (38)

Sev	Category	Rule	Message
good	integrity	`SCHEMA_KEYS_PRESENT`	All required sections present.
good	structure	`LINEUP_ELEVEN`	Racing Club: 11 starters.
good	structure	`FORMATION_VALID`	Racing Club: formation 4-2-3-1 valid.
good	structure	`LINEUP_ELEVEN`	Valencia: 11 starters.
good	structure	`FORMATION_VALID`	Valencia: formation 4-4-2 valid.
good	probability	`OUTCOME_SUMS_ONE`	outcome sums to 1.0000.
good	probability	`MARKETS_COMPLEMENTARY`	Over/Under and BTTS pairs each sum to 1.
good	probability	`SCORELINE_PROBS_NONNEG`	All scoreline probabilities within [0,1].
good	probability	`GRID_SUMS_ONE`	scoreline grid sums to 0.9972.
good	model_behavior	`GRID_REPRODUCIBLE`	Grid reproducible from lambdas (max cell diff 0.0011).
good	probability	`MLS_PROBABILITY_MATCHES`	Headline probability matches the grid.
good	model_behavior	`OUTCOME_MATCHES_GRID`	Outcome split matches the grid (max diff 0.0015).
good	model_behavior	`MARKETS_MATCH_GRID`	Markets match the grid (max diff 0.0027).
good	integrity	`WINNER_IS_VALID_TEAM`	predicted_winner 'Racing Club' is a participating side.
good	model_behavior	`WINNER_MATCHES_SCORE`	Winner agrees with headline score (Racing Club).
good	model_behavior	`WINNER_PROBABILITY_DIRECTION`	Winner matches the win-probability favorite (Racing Club).
good	model_behavior	`LAMBDA_BOUNDS`	Lambdas in range (home 1.422, away 1.151).
good	provenance	`LAMBDA_FACTORS_PRESENT`	lambda_factors audit trail present.
good	model_behavior	`LAMBDA_CONSISTENCY`	Lambda identical across prediction / antagonist / factors.
good	model_behavior	`CALIBRATION_SCALE_BOUNDS`	Calibration scale 1.0 in range.
good	provenance	`XGBOOST_REASONING_PRESENT`	Match-level xgboost_reasoning present (XGBoost).
good	model_behavior	`LAMBDA_REASONING_CONSISTENCY`	Lambdas in xgboost_reasoning match final Poisson lambdas (1.422 / 1.151).
good	provenance	`XGBOOST_PLAYER_REASONING`	All 22 starters carry full XGBoost / FBref reasoning.
good	integrity	`TEAM_GOALS_SUM`	Racing Club: player goals reconcile to team total (1).
good	integrity	`TEAM_GOALS_SUM`	Valencia: player goals reconcile to team total (0).
good	structure	`POSSESSION_SUMS_100`	Possession sums to 100.0%.
good	integrity	`PLAYER_STAT_REALISM`	All 22 projected player lines pass realism checks.
good	structure	`EXACTLY_ONE_GOALKEEPER`	Racing Club: exactly one goalkeeper (Julen Agirrezabala).
good	integrity	`SHOT_MATH_INTEGRITY`	All 11 projected lines have consistent shot components.
good	integrity	`TEAM_SHOTS_CAP`	Racing Club: 10 projected shots inside the realistic envelope.
good	structure	`EXACTLY_ONE_GOALKEEPER`	Valencia: exactly one goalkeeper (Stole Dimitrievski).
good	integrity	`SHOT_MATH_INTEGRITY`	All 11 projected lines have consistent shot components.
good	integrity	`TEAM_SHOTS_CAP`	Valencia: 12 projected shots inside the realistic envelope.
good	provenance	`STANDING_AVAILABLE`	League-standing context available for both sides.
good	provenance	`RANKING_PROVENANCE`	22/22 starters carry a ranking source.
good	provenance	`DATA_DEPTH`	21/22 starters have adequate recent history.
good	provenance	`PREGAME_DIRECTION_AGREES`	Pregame favorite agrees with the model winner (Racing Club).
good	provenance	`PREGAME_TOTAL_CONSISTENT`	Pregame total 2.57 ~ Poisson total 2.57.

Notes (1)

Sev	Category	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
info	model_behavior	`MOST_LIKELY_IS_MODE`	Decisive-score substitution policy: the modal scoreline is a draw 1-1 (p=0.1260); the headline shows the most likely decisive score 1-0 (p=0.1074) for the probability favorite Racing Club.	1-0	1-1

Rayo Vallecano vs Athletic Club

20261011_ATH@RAY · LaLiga

CLEAN risk 0 pred 0-1 (Athletic Club)λ 1.08 / 1.73conf 0.63 info 1 good 39

Problems (0)

none

Lambda evolution (audit trail)

Stage	Home λ	Away λ
Pre-competitive-floor	1.082	1.730
Pre-calibration	1.082	1.730
Final	1.082	1.730

competition_calibration_scale: 1.0competition_observed_total_goals: 0.0quality_gap_applied: Truemismatch_score_pressure_applied: Falsecompetitive_underdog_floor_applied: Falsestage_discount: 1.0

Scoreline distribution

Top scorelines	P
0-1	10.3%
1-1	11.3%
1-2	9.7%
0-2	9.0%
1-0	6.4%

Outcome — home 23.6% · draw 23.9% · away 52.5%

Markets — O2.5 53.3% · BTTS 54.5%

Passed checks (39)

Sev	Category	Rule	Message
good	integrity	`SCHEMA_KEYS_PRESENT`	All required sections present.
good	structure	`LINEUP_ELEVEN`	Rayo Vallecano: 11 starters.
good	structure	`FORMATION_VALID`	Rayo Vallecano: formation 4-3-3 valid.
good	structure	`LINEUP_ELEVEN`	Athletic Club: 11 starters.
good	structure	`FORMATION_VALID`	Athletic Club: formation 4-2-3-1 valid.
good	probability	`OUTCOME_SUMS_ONE`	outcome sums to 1.0000.
good	probability	`MARKETS_COMPLEMENTARY`	Over/Under and BTTS pairs each sum to 1.
good	probability	`SCORELINE_PROBS_NONNEG`	All scoreline probabilities within [0,1].
good	probability	`GRID_SUMS_ONE`	scoreline grid sums to 0.9966.
good	model_behavior	`GRID_REPRODUCIBLE`	Grid reproducible from lambdas (max cell diff 0.0007).
good	probability	`MLS_PROBABILITY_MATCHES`	Headline probability matches the grid.
good	model_behavior	`OUTCOME_MATCHES_GRID`	Outcome split matches the grid (max diff 0.0019).
good	model_behavior	`MARKETS_MATCH_GRID`	Markets match the grid (max diff 0.0035).
good	integrity	`WINNER_IS_VALID_TEAM`	predicted_winner 'Athletic Club' is a participating side.
good	model_behavior	`WINNER_MATCHES_SCORE`	Winner agrees with headline score (Athletic Club).
good	model_behavior	`WINNER_PROBABILITY_DIRECTION`	Winner matches the win-probability favorite (Athletic Club).
good	model_behavior	`LAMBDA_BOUNDS`	Lambdas in range (home 1.082, away 1.73).
good	provenance	`LAMBDA_FACTORS_PRESENT`	lambda_factors audit trail present.
good	model_behavior	`LAMBDA_CONSISTENCY`	Lambda identical across prediction / antagonist / factors.
good	model_behavior	`CALIBRATION_SCALE_BOUNDS`	Calibration scale 1.0 in range.
good	provenance	`XGBOOST_REASONING_PRESENT`	Match-level xgboost_reasoning present (XGBoost).
good	model_behavior	`LAMBDA_REASONING_CONSISTENCY`	Lambdas in xgboost_reasoning match final Poisson lambdas (1.082 / 1.73).
good	provenance	`FBREF_PRIORS_ACTIVE`	FBref team priors applied (blend weight 0.228, home E[lambda]=0.988, away E[lambda]=0.985).
good	provenance	`XGBOOST_PLAYER_REASONING`	All 22 starters carry full XGBoost / FBref reasoning.
good	integrity	`TEAM_GOALS_SUM`	Rayo Vallecano: player goals reconcile to team total (0).
good	integrity	`TEAM_GOALS_SUM`	Athletic Club: player goals reconcile to team total (1).
good	structure	`POSSESSION_SUMS_100`	Possession sums to 100.0%.
good	integrity	`PLAYER_STAT_REALISM`	All 22 projected player lines pass realism checks.
good	structure	`EXACTLY_ONE_GOALKEEPER`	Rayo Vallecano: exactly one goalkeeper (Augusto Batalla).
good	integrity	`SHOT_MATH_INTEGRITY`	All 11 projected lines have consistent shot components.
good	integrity	`TEAM_SHOTS_CAP`	Rayo Vallecano: 10 projected shots inside the realistic envelope.
good	structure	`EXACTLY_ONE_GOALKEEPER`	Athletic Club: exactly one goalkeeper (Unai Simón).
good	integrity	`SHOT_MATH_INTEGRITY`	All 11 projected lines have consistent shot components.
good	integrity	`TEAM_SHOTS_CAP`	Athletic Club: 12 projected shots inside the realistic envelope.
good	provenance	`STANDING_AVAILABLE`	League-standing context available for both sides.
good	provenance	`RANKING_PROVENANCE`	22/22 starters carry a ranking source.
good	provenance	`DATA_DEPTH`	17/22 starters have adequate recent history.
good	provenance	`PREGAME_DIRECTION_AGREES`	Pregame favorite agrees with the model winner (Athletic Club).
good	provenance	`PREGAME_TOTAL_CONSISTENT`	Pregame total 2.81 ~ Poisson total 2.81.

Notes (1)

Sev	Category	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
info	model_behavior	`MOST_LIKELY_IS_MODE`	Decisive-score substitution policy: the modal scoreline is a draw 1-1 (p=0.1132); the headline shows the most likely decisive score 0-1 (p=0.1033) for the probability favorite Athletic Club.	0-1	1-1

Elche vs Celta

20261011_CEL@ELC · LaLiga

CLEAN risk 0 pred 0-1 (Celta)λ 1.05 / 1.07conf 0.69 info 1 good 39

Problems (0)

none

Lambda evolution (audit trail)

Stage	Home λ	Away λ
Pre-competitive-floor	1.049	1.066
Pre-calibration	0.874	1.045
Final	1.049	1.066

competition_calibration_scale: 1.0competition_observed_total_goals: 0.0quality_gap_applied: Truemismatch_score_pressure_applied: Falsecompetitive_underdog_floor_applied: Falsestage_discount: 1.0

Scoreline distribution

Top scorelines	P
0-1	12.7%
1-1	13.6%
1-0	12.5%
0-0	12.2%
1-2	7.2%

Outcome — home 34.5% · draw 30.1% · away 35.4%

Markets — O2.5 35.4% · BTTS 42.7%

Passed checks (39)

Sev	Category	Rule	Message
good	integrity	`SCHEMA_KEYS_PRESENT`	All required sections present.
good	structure	`LINEUP_ELEVEN`	Elche: 11 starters.
good	structure	`FORMATION_VALID`	Elche: formation 4-3-3 valid.
good	structure	`LINEUP_ELEVEN`	Celta: 11 starters.
good	structure	`FORMATION_VALID`	Celta: formation 3-4-3 valid.
good	probability	`OUTCOME_SUMS_ONE`	outcome sums to 1.0000.
good	probability	`MARKETS_COMPLEMENTARY`	Over/Under and BTTS pairs each sum to 1.
good	probability	`SCORELINE_PROBS_NONNEG`	All scoreline probabilities within [0,1].
good	probability	`GRID_SUMS_ONE`	scoreline grid sums to 0.9976.
good	model_behavior	`GRID_REPRODUCIBLE`	Grid reproducible from lambdas (max cell diff 0.0014).
good	probability	`MLS_PROBABILITY_MATCHES`	Headline probability matches the grid.
good	model_behavior	`OUTCOME_MATCHES_GRID`	Outcome split matches the grid (max diff 0.0011).
good	model_behavior	`MARKETS_MATCH_GRID`	Markets match the grid (max diff 0.0024).
good	integrity	`WINNER_IS_VALID_TEAM`	predicted_winner 'Celta' is a participating side.
good	model_behavior	`WINNER_MATCHES_SCORE`	Winner agrees with headline score (Celta).
good	model_behavior	`WINNER_PROBABILITY_DIRECTION`	Winner matches the win-probability favorite (Celta).
good	model_behavior	`LAMBDA_BOUNDS`	Lambdas in range (home 1.049, away 1.066).
good	provenance	`LAMBDA_FACTORS_PRESENT`	lambda_factors audit trail present.
good	model_behavior	`LAMBDA_CONSISTENCY`	Lambda identical across prediction / antagonist / factors.
good	model_behavior	`CALIBRATION_SCALE_BOUNDS`	Calibration scale 1.0 in range.
good	provenance	`XGBOOST_REASONING_PRESENT`	Match-level xgboost_reasoning present (XGBoost).
good	model_behavior	`LAMBDA_REASONING_CONSISTENCY`	Lambdas in xgboost_reasoning match final Poisson lambdas (1.049 / 1.066).
good	provenance	`FBREF_PRIORS_ACTIVE`	FBref team priors applied (blend weight 0.228, home E[lambda]=0.2, away E[lambda]=0.2).
good	provenance	`XGBOOST_PLAYER_REASONING`	All 22 starters carry full XGBoost / FBref reasoning.
good	integrity	`TEAM_GOALS_SUM`	Elche: player goals reconcile to team total (0).
good	integrity	`TEAM_GOALS_SUM`	Celta: player goals reconcile to team total (1).
good	structure	`POSSESSION_SUMS_100`	Possession sums to 100.0%.
good	integrity	`PLAYER_STAT_REALISM`	All 22 projected player lines pass realism checks.
good	structure	`EXACTLY_ONE_GOALKEEPER`	Elche: exactly one goalkeeper (Matías Dituro).
good	integrity	`SHOT_MATH_INTEGRITY`	All 11 projected lines have consistent shot components.
good	integrity	`TEAM_SHOTS_CAP`	Elche: 11 projected shots inside the realistic envelope.
good	structure	`EXACTLY_ONE_GOALKEEPER`	Celta: exactly one goalkeeper (Ionuț Radu).
good	integrity	`SHOT_MATH_INTEGRITY`	All 11 projected lines have consistent shot components.
good	integrity	`TEAM_SHOTS_CAP`	Celta: 12 projected shots inside the realistic envelope.
good	provenance	`STANDING_AVAILABLE`	League-standing context available for both sides.
good	provenance	`RANKING_PROVENANCE`	22/22 starters carry a ranking source.
good	provenance	`DATA_DEPTH`	21/22 starters have adequate recent history.
good	provenance	`PREGAME_DIRECTION_AGREES`	Pregame favorite agrees with the model winner (Celta).
good	provenance	`PREGAME_TOTAL_CONSISTENT`	Pregame total 2.12 ~ Poisson total 2.12.

Notes (1)

Sev	Category	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
info	model_behavior	`MOST_LIKELY_IS_MODE`	Decisive-score substitution policy: the modal scoreline is a draw 1-1 (p=0.1362); the headline shows the most likely decisive score 0-1 (p=0.1273) for the probability favorite Celta.	0-1	1-1

Hull vs Everton

20261011_EVE@HUL · Premier League

CLEAN risk 0 pred 0-1 (Everton)λ 1.02 / 1.69conf 0.72 info 1 good 39

Problems (0)

none

Lambda evolution (audit trail)

Stage	Home λ	Away λ
Pre-mismatch	1.106	1.609
Pre-competitive-floor	1.073	1.778
Pre-calibration	1.106	1.609
Final	1.022	1.693

competition_calibration_scale: 1.0competition_observed_total_goals: 0.0quality_gap_applied: Truemismatch_score_pressure_applied: Truecompetitive_underdog_floor_applied: Falsestage_discount: 1.0

Scoreline distribution

Top scorelines	P
0-1	11.1%
1-1	11.5%
1-2	9.7%
0-2	9.5%
0-0	6.7%

Outcome — home 22.7% · draw 24.3% · away 53.0%

Markets — O2.5 51.0% · BTTS 52.3%

Passed checks (39)

Sev	Category	Rule	Message
good	integrity	`SCHEMA_KEYS_PRESENT`	All required sections present.
good	structure	`LINEUP_ELEVEN`	Hull: 11 starters.
good	structure	`FORMATION_VALID`	Hull: formation 5-4-1 valid.
good	structure	`LINEUP_ELEVEN`	Everton: 11 starters.
good	structure	`FORMATION_VALID`	Everton: formation 4-2-3-1 valid.
good	probability	`OUTCOME_SUMS_ONE`	outcome sums to 1.0001.
good	probability	`MARKETS_COMPLEMENTARY`	Over/Under and BTTS pairs each sum to 1.
good	probability	`SCORELINE_PROBS_NONNEG`	All scoreline probabilities within [0,1].
good	probability	`GRID_SUMS_ONE`	scoreline grid sums to 0.9968.
good	model_behavior	`GRID_REPRODUCIBLE`	Grid reproducible from lambdas (max cell diff 0.0009).
good	probability	`MLS_PROBABILITY_MATCHES`	Headline probability matches the grid.
good	model_behavior	`OUTCOME_MATCHES_GRID`	Outcome split matches the grid (max diff 0.0017).
good	model_behavior	`MARKETS_MATCH_GRID`	Markets match the grid (max diff 0.0032).
good	integrity	`WINNER_IS_VALID_TEAM`	predicted_winner 'Everton' is a participating side.
good	model_behavior	`WINNER_MATCHES_SCORE`	Winner agrees with headline score (Everton).
good	model_behavior	`WINNER_PROBABILITY_DIRECTION`	Winner matches the win-probability favorite (Everton).
good	model_behavior	`LAMBDA_BOUNDS`	Lambdas in range (home 1.022, away 1.693).
good	provenance	`LAMBDA_FACTORS_PRESENT`	lambda_factors audit trail present.
good	model_behavior	`LAMBDA_CONSISTENCY`	Lambda identical across prediction / antagonist / factors.
good	model_behavior	`CALIBRATION_SCALE_BOUNDS`	Calibration scale 1.0 in range.
good	provenance	`XGBOOST_REASONING_PRESENT`	Match-level xgboost_reasoning present (XGBoost).
good	model_behavior	`LAMBDA_REASONING_CONSISTENCY`	Lambdas in xgboost_reasoning match final Poisson lambdas (1.022 / 1.693).
good	provenance	`FBREF_PRIORS_ACTIVE`	FBref team priors applied (blend weight 0.192, home E[lambda]=1.552, away E[lambda]=1.552).
good	provenance	`XGBOOST_PLAYER_REASONING`	All 22 starters carry full XGBoost / FBref reasoning.
good	integrity	`TEAM_GOALS_SUM`	Hull: player goals reconcile to team total (0).
good	integrity	`TEAM_GOALS_SUM`	Everton: player goals reconcile to team total (1).
good	structure	`POSSESSION_SUMS_100`	Possession sums to 100.0%.
good	integrity	`PLAYER_STAT_REALISM`	All 22 projected player lines pass realism checks.
good	structure	`EXACTLY_ONE_GOALKEEPER`	Hull: exactly one goalkeeper (Konstantinos Tzolakis).
good	integrity	`SHOT_MATH_INTEGRITY`	All 11 projected lines have consistent shot components.
good	integrity	`TEAM_SHOTS_CAP`	Hull: 11 projected shots inside the realistic envelope.
good	structure	`EXACTLY_ONE_GOALKEEPER`	Everton: exactly one goalkeeper (Jordan Pickford).
good	integrity	`SHOT_MATH_INTEGRITY`	All 11 projected lines have consistent shot components.
good	integrity	`TEAM_SHOTS_CAP`	Everton: 15 projected shots inside the realistic envelope.
good	provenance	`STANDING_AVAILABLE`	League-standing context available for both sides.
good	provenance	`RANKING_PROVENANCE`	22/22 starters carry a ranking source.
good	provenance	`DATA_DEPTH`	22/22 starters have adequate recent history.
good	provenance	`PREGAME_DIRECTION_AGREES`	Pregame favorite agrees with the model winner (Everton).
good	provenance	`PREGAME_TOTAL_CONSISTENT`	Pregame total 2.71 ~ Poisson total 2.71.

Notes (1)

Sev	Category	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
info	model_behavior	`MOST_LIKELY_IS_MODE`	Decisive-score substitution policy: the modal scoreline is a draw 1-1 (p=0.1154); the headline shows the most likely decisive score 0-1 (p=0.1112) for the probability favorite Everton.	0-1	1-1

Liverpool vs Man City

20261011_MCI@LIV · Premier League

CLEAN risk 0 pred 1-2 (Man City)λ 1.59 / 2.13conf 0.73 good 40

Problems (0)

none

Lambda evolution (audit trail)

Stage	Home λ	Away λ
Pre-competitive-floor	1.594	2.130
Pre-calibration	1.617	2.100
Final	1.594	2.130

competition_calibration_scale: 1.0competition_observed_total_goals: 0.0quality_gap_applied: Truemismatch_score_pressure_applied: Falsecompetitive_underdog_floor_applied: Falsestage_discount: 1.0

Scoreline distribution

Top scorelines	P
1-2	8.7%
1-1	8.2%
2-2	7.0%
2-1	6.5%
1-3	6.2%

Outcome — home 28.9% · draw 20.9% · away 50.1%

Markets — O2.5 71.9% · BTTS 70.3%

Passed checks (40)

Sev	Category	Rule	Message
good	integrity	`SCHEMA_KEYS_PRESENT`	All required sections present.
good	structure	`LINEUP_ELEVEN`	Liverpool: 11 starters.
good	structure	`FORMATION_VALID`	Liverpool: formation 4-2-3-1 valid.
good	structure	`LINEUP_ELEVEN`	Man City: 11 starters.
good	structure	`FORMATION_VALID`	Man City: formation 4-2-3-1 valid.
good	probability	`OUTCOME_SUMS_ONE`	outcome sums to 1.0000.
good	probability	`MARKETS_COMPLEMENTARY`	Over/Under and BTTS pairs each sum to 1.
good	probability	`SCORELINE_PROBS_NONNEG`	All scoreline probabilities within [0,1].
good	probability	`GRID_SUMS_ONE`	scoreline grid sums to 0.9960.
good	model_behavior	`GRID_REPRODUCIBLE`	Grid reproducible from lambdas (max cell diff 0.0006).
good	model_behavior	`MOST_LIKELY_IS_MODE`	Headline score 1-2 is the modal scoreline.
good	probability	`MLS_PROBABILITY_MATCHES`	Headline probability matches the grid.
good	model_behavior	`OUTCOME_MATCHES_GRID`	Outcome split matches the grid (max diff 0.0020).
good	model_behavior	`MARKETS_MATCH_GRID`	Markets match the grid (max diff 0.0041).
good	integrity	`WINNER_IS_VALID_TEAM`	predicted_winner 'Man City' is a participating side.
good	model_behavior	`WINNER_MATCHES_SCORE`	Winner agrees with headline score (Man City).
good	model_behavior	`WINNER_PROBABILITY_DIRECTION`	Winner matches the win-probability favorite (Man City).
good	model_behavior	`LAMBDA_BOUNDS`	Lambdas in range (home 1.594, away 2.13).
good	provenance	`LAMBDA_FACTORS_PRESENT`	lambda_factors audit trail present.
good	model_behavior	`LAMBDA_CONSISTENCY`	Lambda identical across prediction / antagonist / factors.
good	model_behavior	`CALIBRATION_SCALE_BOUNDS`	Calibration scale 1.0 in range.
good	provenance	`XGBOOST_REASONING_PRESENT`	Match-level xgboost_reasoning present (XGBoost).
good	model_behavior	`LAMBDA_REASONING_CONSISTENCY`	Lambdas in xgboost_reasoning match final Poisson lambdas (1.594 / 2.13).
good	provenance	`FBREF_PRIORS_ACTIVE`	FBref team priors applied (blend weight 0.192, home E[lambda]=3.5, away E[lambda]=3.5).
good	provenance	`XGBOOST_PLAYER_REASONING`	All 22 starters carry full XGBoost / FBref reasoning.
good	integrity	`TEAM_GOALS_SUM`	Liverpool: player goals reconcile to team total (1).
good	integrity	`TEAM_GOALS_SUM`	Man City: player goals reconcile to team total (2).
good	structure	`POSSESSION_SUMS_100`	Possession sums to 100.0%.
good	integrity	`PLAYER_STAT_REALISM`	All 22 projected player lines pass realism checks.
good	structure	`EXACTLY_ONE_GOALKEEPER`	Liverpool: exactly one goalkeeper (Alisson).
good	integrity	`SHOT_MATH_INTEGRITY`	All 11 projected lines have consistent shot components.
good	integrity	`TEAM_SHOTS_CAP`	Liverpool: 16 projected shots inside the realistic envelope.
good	structure	`EXACTLY_ONE_GOALKEEPER`	Man City: exactly one goalkeeper (Gianluigi Donnarumma).
good	integrity	`SHOT_MATH_INTEGRITY`	All 11 projected lines have consistent shot components.
good	integrity	`TEAM_SHOTS_CAP`	Man City: 20 projected shots inside the realistic envelope.
good	provenance	`STANDING_AVAILABLE`	League-standing context available for both sides.
good	provenance	`RANKING_PROVENANCE`	22/22 starters carry a ranking source.
good	provenance	`DATA_DEPTH`	22/22 starters have adequate recent history.
good	provenance	`PREGAME_DIRECTION_AGREES`	Pregame favorite agrees with the model winner (Man City).
good	provenance	`PREGAME_TOTAL_CONSISTENT`	Pregame total 3.72 ~ Poisson total 3.72.

Real Betis vs Osasuna

20261011_OSA@BET · LaLiga

CLEAN risk 0 pred 1-0 (Real Betis)λ 1.93 / 0.83conf 0.77 good 40

Problems (0)

none

Lambda evolution (audit trail)

Stage	Home λ	Away λ
Pre-mismatch	1.870	0.898
Pre-competitive-floor	2.033	0.878
Pre-calibration	1.818	0.925
Final	1.934	0.835

competition_calibration_scale: 1.0competition_observed_total_goals: 0.0quality_gap_applied: Truemismatch_score_pressure_applied: Truecompetitive_underdog_floor_applied: Falsestage_discount: 1.0

Scoreline distribution

Top scorelines	P
1-0	12.1%
2-0	11.7%
1-1	10.2%
2-1	9.8%
3-0	7.6%

Outcome — home 63.1% · draw 21.4% · away 15.4%

Markets — O2.5 52.3% · BTTS 48.5%

Passed checks (40)

Sev	Category	Rule	Message
good	integrity	`SCHEMA_KEYS_PRESENT`	All required sections present.
good	structure	`LINEUP_ELEVEN`	Real Betis: 11 starters.
good	structure	`FORMATION_VALID`	Real Betis: formation 4-3-3 valid.
good	structure	`LINEUP_ELEVEN`	Osasuna: 11 starters.
good	structure	`FORMATION_VALID`	Osasuna: formation 4-2-3-1 valid.
good	probability	`OUTCOME_SUMS_ONE`	outcome sums to 1.0000.
good	probability	`MARKETS_COMPLEMENTARY`	Over/Under and BTTS pairs each sum to 1.
good	probability	`SCORELINE_PROBS_NONNEG`	All scoreline probabilities within [0,1].
good	probability	`GRID_SUMS_ONE`	scoreline grid sums to 0.9961.
good	model_behavior	`GRID_REPRODUCIBLE`	Grid reproducible from lambdas (max cell diff 0.0006).
good	model_behavior	`MOST_LIKELY_IS_MODE`	Headline score 1-0 is the modal scoreline.
good	probability	`MLS_PROBABILITY_MATCHES`	Headline probability matches the grid.
good	model_behavior	`OUTCOME_MATCHES_GRID`	Outcome split matches the grid (max diff 0.0023).
good	model_behavior	`MARKETS_MATCH_GRID`	Markets match the grid (max diff 0.0039).
good	integrity	`WINNER_IS_VALID_TEAM`	predicted_winner 'Real Betis' is a participating side.
good	model_behavior	`WINNER_MATCHES_SCORE`	Winner agrees with headline score (Real Betis).
good	model_behavior	`WINNER_PROBABILITY_DIRECTION`	Winner matches the win-probability favorite (Real Betis).
good	model_behavior	`LAMBDA_BOUNDS`	Lambdas in range (home 1.934, away 0.835).
good	provenance	`LAMBDA_FACTORS_PRESENT`	lambda_factors audit trail present.
good	model_behavior	`LAMBDA_CONSISTENCY`	Lambda identical across prediction / antagonist / factors.
good	model_behavior	`CALIBRATION_SCALE_BOUNDS`	Calibration scale 1.0 in range.
good	provenance	`XGBOOST_REASONING_PRESENT`	Match-level xgboost_reasoning present (XGBoost).
good	model_behavior	`LAMBDA_REASONING_CONSISTENCY`	Lambdas in xgboost_reasoning match final Poisson lambdas (1.934 / 0.835).
good	provenance	`FBREF_PRIORS_ACTIVE`	FBref team priors applied (blend weight 0.228, home E[lambda]=0.988, away E[lambda]=0.985).
good	provenance	`XGBOOST_PLAYER_REASONING`	All 22 starters carry full XGBoost / FBref reasoning.
good	integrity	`TEAM_GOALS_SUM`	Real Betis: player goals reconcile to team total (1).
good	integrity	`TEAM_GOALS_SUM`	Osasuna: player goals reconcile to team total (0).
good	structure	`POSSESSION_SUMS_100`	Possession sums to 100.0%.
good	integrity	`PLAYER_STAT_REALISM`	All 22 projected player lines pass realism checks.
good	structure	`EXACTLY_ONE_GOALKEEPER`	Real Betis: exactly one goalkeeper (Álvaro Valles).
good	integrity	`SHOT_MATH_INTEGRITY`	All 11 projected lines have consistent shot components.
good	integrity	`TEAM_SHOTS_CAP`	Real Betis: 16 projected shots inside the realistic envelope.
good	structure	`EXACTLY_ONE_GOALKEEPER`	Osasuna: exactly one goalkeeper (Aitor Fernández).
good	integrity	`SHOT_MATH_INTEGRITY`	All 11 projected lines have consistent shot components.
good	integrity	`TEAM_SHOTS_CAP`	Osasuna: 9 projected shots inside the realistic envelope.
good	provenance	`STANDING_AVAILABLE`	League-standing context available for both sides.
good	provenance	`RANKING_PROVENANCE`	22/22 starters carry a ranking source.
good	provenance	`DATA_DEPTH`	21/22 starters have adequate recent history.
good	provenance	`PREGAME_DIRECTION_AGREES`	Pregame favorite agrees with the model winner (Real Betis).
good	provenance	`PREGAME_TOTAL_CONSISTENT`	Pregame total 2.77 ~ Poisson total 2.77.

Real Madrid vs Villarreal

20261011_VIL@RMA · LaLiga

CLEAN risk 0 pred 3-1 (Real Madrid)λ 3.54 / 1.35conf 0.73 good 40

Problems (0)

none

Lambda evolution (audit trail)

Stage	Home λ	Away λ
Pre-mismatch	3.369	1.517
Pre-calibration	3.369	1.517
Final	3.538	1.348

competition_calibration_scale: 1.0competition_observed_total_goals: 0.0quality_gap_applied: Truemismatch_score_pressure_applied: Truecompetitive_underdog_floor_applied: Falsestage_discount: 1.0

Scoreline distribution

Top scorelines	P
3-1	7.5%
4-1	6.7%
2-1	6.4%
3-0	5.6%
3-2	5.1%

Outcome — home 77.9% · draw 11.8% · away 10.3%

Markets — O2.5 86.5% · BTTS 71.9%

Passed checks (40)

Sev	Category	Rule	Message
good	integrity	`SCHEMA_KEYS_PRESENT`	All required sections present.
good	structure	`LINEUP_ELEVEN`	Real Madrid: 11 starters.
good	structure	`FORMATION_VALID`	Real Madrid: formation 3-4-2-1 valid.
good	structure	`LINEUP_ELEVEN`	Villarreal: 11 starters.
good	structure	`FORMATION_VALID`	Villarreal: formation 5-4-1 valid.
good	probability	`OUTCOME_SUMS_ONE`	outcome sums to 1.0000.
good	probability	`MARKETS_COMPLEMENTARY`	Over/Under and BTTS pairs each sum to 1.
good	probability	`SCORELINE_PROBS_NONNEG`	All scoreline probabilities within [0,1].
good	probability	`GRID_SUMS_ONE`	scoreline grid sums to 0.9959.
good	model_behavior	`GRID_REPRODUCIBLE`	Grid reproducible from lambdas (max cell diff 0.0003).
good	model_behavior	`MOST_LIKELY_IS_MODE`	Headline score 3-1 is the modal scoreline.
good	probability	`MLS_PROBABILITY_MATCHES`	Headline probability matches the grid.
good	model_behavior	`OUTCOME_MATCHES_GRID`	Outcome split matches the grid (max diff 0.0025).
good	model_behavior	`MARKETS_MATCH_GRID`	Markets match the grid (max diff 0.0041).
good	integrity	`WINNER_IS_VALID_TEAM`	predicted_winner 'Real Madrid' is a participating side.
good	model_behavior	`WINNER_MATCHES_SCORE`	Winner agrees with headline score (Real Madrid).
good	model_behavior	`WINNER_PROBABILITY_DIRECTION`	Winner matches the win-probability favorite (Real Madrid).
good	model_behavior	`LAMBDA_BOUNDS`	Lambdas in range (home 3.538, away 1.348).
good	provenance	`LAMBDA_FACTORS_PRESENT`	lambda_factors audit trail present.
good	model_behavior	`LAMBDA_CONSISTENCY`	Lambda identical across prediction / antagonist / factors.
good	model_behavior	`CALIBRATION_SCALE_BOUNDS`	Calibration scale 1.0 in range.
good	provenance	`XGBOOST_REASONING_PRESENT`	Match-level xgboost_reasoning present (XGBoost).
good	model_behavior	`LAMBDA_REASONING_CONSISTENCY`	Lambdas in xgboost_reasoning match final Poisson lambdas (3.538 / 1.348).
good	provenance	`FBREF_PRIORS_ACTIVE`	FBref team priors applied (blend weight 0.228, home E[lambda]=2.956, away E[lambda]=3.289).
good	provenance	`XGBOOST_PLAYER_REASONING`	All 22 starters carry full XGBoost / FBref reasoning.
good	integrity	`TEAM_GOALS_SUM`	Real Madrid: player goals reconcile to team total (3).
good	integrity	`TEAM_GOALS_SUM`	Villarreal: player goals reconcile to team total (1).
good	structure	`POSSESSION_SUMS_100`	Possession sums to 100.0%.
good	integrity	`PLAYER_STAT_REALISM`	All 22 projected player lines pass realism checks.
good	structure	`EXACTLY_ONE_GOALKEEPER`	Real Madrid: exactly one goalkeeper (Thibaut Courtois).
good	integrity	`SHOT_MATH_INTEGRITY`	All 11 projected lines have consistent shot components.
good	integrity	`TEAM_SHOTS_CAP`	Real Madrid: 17 projected shots inside the realistic envelope.
good	structure	`EXACTLY_ONE_GOALKEEPER`	Villarreal: exactly one goalkeeper (Luiz Júnior).
good	integrity	`SHOT_MATH_INTEGRITY`	All 11 projected lines have consistent shot components.
good	integrity	`TEAM_SHOTS_CAP`	Villarreal: 10 projected shots inside the realistic envelope.
good	provenance	`STANDING_AVAILABLE`	League-standing context available for both sides.
good	provenance	`RANKING_PROVENANCE`	22/22 starters carry a ranking source.
good	provenance	`DATA_DEPTH`	21/22 starters have adequate recent history.
good	provenance	`PREGAME_DIRECTION_AGREES`	Pregame favorite agrees with the model winner (Real Madrid).
good	provenance	`PREGAME_TOTAL_CONSISTENT`	Pregame total 4.89 ~ Poisson total 4.89.

Rule catalogue

Rule	Description	Triggered
`SCHEMA_KEYS_PRESENT`	All required top-level sections exist in the artifact.	ok
`LINEUP_ELEVEN`	Each side fields exactly 11 starters.	ok
`FORMATION_VALID`	Formation string parses and its outfield lines sum to 10.	ok
`POSSESSION_SUMS_100`	Estimated possession of both teams sums to ~100%.	ok
`TEAM_GOALS_SUM`	Players' projected integer goals sum to the team's headline score.	ok
`TEAM_TOTALS_SCORE_MATCH`	team_totals.projected_goals equals the headline score component.	ok
`TEAM_EG_LAMBDA_MATCH`	team_totals.expected_goals matches the team's Poisson lambda.	ok
`PLAYER_STAT_REALISM`	Projected player lines are internally consistent (xG<=shots, accurate<=total passes, minutes/rating in range).	4 problems
`EXACTLY_ONE_GOALKEEPER`	Each starting XI fields exactly one goalkeeper.	ok
`SHOT_MATH_INTEGRITY`	Shot components are physically consistent (on target <= total, on+off <= total; blocked shots cannot be negative).	ok
`PLAYER_MINUTES_LEAGUE_CAP`	No player projects more minutes than the competition clock allows (90 + stoppage, or extra time in cups).	ok
`TEAM_SHOTS_CAP`	Team projected shots stay inside the realistic historical envelope (~35).	ok
`OUTCOME_SUMS_ONE`	home_win + draw + away_win sums to 1.	ok
`MARKETS_COMPLEMENTARY`	Over/Under and BTTS pairs each sum to 1.	ok
`GRID_SUMS_ONE`	The scoreline probability grid sums to ~1.	ok
`SCORELINE_PROBS_NONNEG`	Every scoreline probability is a valid [0,1] value.	ok
`GRID_REPRODUCIBLE`	The reported scoreline grid is reproducible from the lambdas.	ok
`MOST_LIKELY_IS_MODE`	The headline most-likely score is the distribution's modal scoreline.	ok
`MLS_PROBABILITY_MATCHES`	most_likely_score_probability equals the grid value of that score.	ok
`OUTCOME_MATCHES_GRID`	The reported win/draw/loss split is derivable from the grid.	ok
`MARKETS_MATCH_GRID`	The reported Over/Under and BTTS are derivable from the grid.	ok
`WINNER_MATCHES_SCORE`	predicted_winner agrees with the headline score direction.	ok
`WINNER_PROBABILITY_DIRECTION`	predicted_winner is the team with the higher win probability.	ok
`WINNER_IS_VALID_TEAM`	predicted_winner names a participating team (or Draw).	ok
`MODAL_OUTCOME_IS_DRAW`	Draw is the single largest outcome bucket while a team is named.	ok
`LAMBDA_BOUNDS`	Both lambdas fall inside the engine's [0.55, 5.00] envelope.	ok
`LAMBDA_CONSISTENCY`	The lambda is identical across prediction / antagonist / lambda_factors.	ok
`LAMBDA_FACTORS_PRESENT`	The lambda_factors decomposition (audit trail) is present.	ok
`CALIBRATION_SCALE_BOUNDS`	competition_calibration_scale stays within [0.85, 1.35].	ok
`CALIBRATION_RECORDED`	When calibration ran, the pre-calibration lambdas are recorded.	ok
`STANDING_AVAILABLE`	League-standing context is available for a domestic fixture.	ok
`RANKING_PROVENANCE`	Player ranking/quality signals carry a recognised source.	ok
`DATA_DEPTH`	Starters have enough recent games to model rather than synthesise.	ok
`FBREF_PRIORS_ACTIVE`	FBref season-prior files exist so that branch is not silently inert.	3 problems
`XGBOOST_REASONING_PRESENT`	Match-level xgboost_reasoning payload is present with full tracing pipeline.	ok
`XGBOOST_PLAYER_REASONING`	Starters have xgboost_reasoning metadata tracking feature contributions and FBref priors.	ok
`LAMBDA_REASONING_CONSISTENCY`	Lambdas reported in xgboost_reasoning match the final Poisson lambdas.	ok
`PREGAME_DIRECTION_AGREES`	The pregame fair-line favorite agrees with the model winner.	ok
`PREGAME_TOTAL_CONSISTENT`	The pregame expected total is close to the sum of the lambdas.	ok
`RESULT_WINNER_HIT`	The predicted winner matched the real result.	ok
`RESULT_EXACT_SCORE_HIT`	The headline score matched the real scoreline exactly.	ok
`RESULT_OU_HIT`	The Over/Under 2.5 lean matched reality.	ok
`RESULT_BTTS_HIT`	The BTTS lean matched reality.	ok
`RESULT_CONFIDENT_MISS`	A high-confidence prediction did not reach the real outcome.	ok
`OUTCOME_BRIER`	Brier score of the win/draw/loss probabilities vs the real result.	ok

Generated 2026-10-11 13:36:32 UTC · Soccer prediction reporting