Soccer prediction system deep audit

Slate 20261017 · immutable forensic review of 9 match prediction artifact(s)

Executive conclusion

In 1 match(es) the headline score is not the distribution's modal scoreline (a breach of the published-mode contract) — see the MOST_LIKELY_IS_MODE findings.

At a glance

9matches audited

0critical

0errors

2warnings

0grid non-reproducible

1headline != modal

0winner disagreements

0lambda inconsistencies

0with real result

-winner hit-rate

-decisive hit-rate

44%predicted draws

-actual draws

0confident misses

-mean Brier

Matches

Newcastle vs Aston Villa

20261017_AVL@NEW · Premier League

WARNINGS risk 10 pred 1-1 (Draw)λ 1.49 / 1.19conf 0.71 warning 1 good 37

Problems (1)

Sev	Category	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
warning	provenance	`FBREF_PRIORS_ACTIVE`	FBref dataset files not found; team priors inactive.

Lambda evolution (audit trail)

Stage	Home λ	Away λ
Pre-competitive-floor	1.487	1.193
Pre-calibration	1.466	1.210
Final	1.487	1.193

competition_calibration_scale: 1.0competition_observed_total_goals: 0.0quality_gap_applied: Truemismatch_score_pressure_applied: Falsecompetitive_underdog_floor_applied: Falsestage_discount: 1.0

Scoreline distribution

Top scorelines	P
1-1	12.3%
1-0	10.1%
2-1	9.0%
0-1	8.1%
2-0	7.6%

Outcome — home 43.9% · draw 25.8% · away 30.3%

Markets — O2.5 50.1% · BTTS 54.0%

Passed checks (37)

Sev	Category	Rule	Message
good	integrity	`SCHEMA_KEYS_PRESENT`	All required sections present.
good	structure	`LINEUP_ELEVEN`	Newcastle: 11 starters.
good	structure	`FORMATION_VALID`	Newcastle: formation 4-3-3 valid.
good	structure	`LINEUP_ELEVEN`	Aston Villa: 11 starters.
good	structure	`FORMATION_VALID`	Aston Villa: formation 4-2-3-1 valid.
good	probability	`OUTCOME_SUMS_ONE`	outcome sums to 1.0000.
good	probability	`MARKETS_COMPLEMENTARY`	Over/Under and BTTS pairs each sum to 1.
good	probability	`SCORELINE_PROBS_NONNEG`	All scoreline probabilities within [0,1].
good	probability	`GRID_SUMS_ONE`	scoreline grid sums to 0.9968.
good	model_behavior	`GRID_REPRODUCIBLE`	Grid reproducible from lambdas (max cell diff 0.0011).
good	model_behavior	`MOST_LIKELY_IS_MODE`	Headline score 1-1 is the modal scoreline.
good	probability	`MLS_PROBABILITY_MATCHES`	Headline probability matches the grid.
good	model_behavior	`OUTCOME_MATCHES_GRID`	Outcome split matches the grid (max diff 0.0015).
good	model_behavior	`MARKETS_MATCH_GRID`	Markets match the grid (max diff 0.0032).
good	integrity	`WINNER_IS_VALID_TEAM`	predicted_winner 'Draw' is a participating side.
good	model_behavior	`WINNER_PROBABILITY_DIRECTION`	predicted_winner 'Draw' follows the published modal scoreline 1-1. It differs from the calibrated 1X2 favorite 'Newcastle', which is published separately and does not decide the call.
good	model_behavior	`LAMBDA_BOUNDS`	Lambdas in range (home 1.487, away 1.193).
good	provenance	`LAMBDA_FACTORS_PRESENT`	lambda_factors audit trail present.
good	model_behavior	`LAMBDA_CONSISTENCY`	Lambda identical across prediction / antagonist / factors.
good	model_behavior	`CALIBRATION_SCALE_BOUNDS`	Calibration scale 1.0 in range.
good	provenance	`XGBOOST_REASONING_PRESENT`	Match-level xgboost_reasoning present (XGBoost).
good	model_behavior	`LAMBDA_REASONING_CONSISTENCY`	Lambdas in xgboost_reasoning match final Poisson lambdas (1.487 / 1.193).
good	provenance	`XGBOOST_PLAYER_REASONING`	All 22 starters carry full XGBoost / FBref reasoning.
good	integrity	`TEAM_GOALS_SUM`	Newcastle: player goals reconcile to team total (1).
good	integrity	`TEAM_GOALS_SUM`	Aston Villa: player goals reconcile to team total (1).
good	structure	`POSSESSION_SUMS_100`	Possession sums to 100.0%.
good	integrity	`PLAYER_STAT_REALISM`	All 22 projected player lines pass realism checks.
good	structure	`EXACTLY_ONE_GOALKEEPER`	Newcastle: exactly one goalkeeper (Lukáš Horníček).
good	integrity	`SHOT_MATH_INTEGRITY`	All 11 projected lines have consistent shot components.
good	integrity	`TEAM_SHOTS_CAP`	Newcastle: 13 projected shots inside the realistic envelope.
good	structure	`EXACTLY_ONE_GOALKEEPER`	Aston Villa: exactly one goalkeeper (Zion Suzuki).
good	integrity	`SHOT_MATH_INTEGRITY`	All 11 projected lines have consistent shot components.
good	integrity	`TEAM_SHOTS_CAP`	Aston Villa: 10 projected shots inside the realistic envelope.
good	provenance	`STANDING_AVAILABLE`	League-standing context available for both sides.
good	provenance	`RANKING_PROVENANCE`	22/22 starters carry a ranking source.
good	provenance	`DATA_DEPTH`	22/22 starters have adequate recent history.
good	provenance	`PREGAME_TOTAL_CONSISTENT`	Pregame total 2.68 ~ Poisson total 2.68.

Everton vs Chelsea

20261017_CHE@EVE · Premier League

WARNINGS risk 10 pred 1-2 (Chelsea)λ 1.78 / 2.00conf 0.72 warning 1 good 39

Problems (1)

Sev	Category	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
warning	model_behavior	`MOST_LIKELY_IS_MODE`	Headline score is not the modal scoreline (modal=1-1 (p=0.0822), shown=1-2 (p=0.0814)); the published exact score must be the grid mode, and the winning scenario belongs in the labelled most_likely_winning_score_home/away fields. Both lean Chelsea.	1-2	1-1

Lambda evolution (audit trail)

Stage	Home λ	Away λ
Pre-competitive-floor	1.776	1.996
Pre-calibration	1.789	1.982
Final	1.776	1.996

competition_calibration_scale: 1.0competition_observed_total_goals: 0.0quality_gap_applied: Truemismatch_score_pressure_applied: Falsecompetitive_underdog_floor_applied: Falsestage_discount: 1.0

Scoreline distribution

Top scorelines	P
1-1	8.2%
1-2	8.1%
2-1	7.2%
2-2	7.2%
1-3	5.4%

Outcome — home 35.0% · draw 21.4% · away 43.7%

Markets — O2.5 72.7% · BTTS 71.8%

Passed checks (39)

Sev	Category	Rule	Message
good	integrity	`SCHEMA_KEYS_PRESENT`	All required sections present.
good	structure	`LINEUP_ELEVEN`	Everton: 11 starters.
good	structure	`FORMATION_VALID`	Everton: formation 4-2-3-1 valid.
good	structure	`LINEUP_ELEVEN`	Chelsea: 11 starters.
good	structure	`FORMATION_VALID`	Chelsea: formation 3-4-2-1 valid.
good	probability	`OUTCOME_SUMS_ONE`	outcome sums to 1.0000.
good	probability	`MARKETS_COMPLEMENTARY`	Over/Under and BTTS pairs each sum to 1.
good	probability	`SCORELINE_PROBS_NONNEG`	All scoreline probabilities within [0,1].
good	probability	`GRID_SUMS_ONE`	scoreline grid sums to 0.9965.
good	model_behavior	`GRID_REPRODUCIBLE`	Grid reproducible from lambdas (max cell diff 0.0007).
good	probability	`MLS_PROBABILITY_MATCHES`	Headline probability matches the grid.
good	model_behavior	`OUTCOME_MATCHES_GRID`	Outcome split matches the grid (max diff 0.0018).
good	model_behavior	`MARKETS_MATCH_GRID`	Markets match the grid (max diff 0.0034).
good	integrity	`WINNER_IS_VALID_TEAM`	predicted_winner 'Chelsea' is a participating side.
good	model_behavior	`WINNER_MATCHES_SCORE`	Winner agrees with headline score (Chelsea).
good	model_behavior	`WINNER_PROBABILITY_DIRECTION`	predicted_winner 'Chelsea' follows the published modal scoreline 1-2.
good	model_behavior	`LAMBDA_BOUNDS`	Lambdas in range (home 1.776, away 1.996).
good	provenance	`LAMBDA_FACTORS_PRESENT`	lambda_factors audit trail present.
good	model_behavior	`LAMBDA_CONSISTENCY`	Lambda identical across prediction / antagonist / factors.
good	model_behavior	`CALIBRATION_SCALE_BOUNDS`	Calibration scale 1.0 in range.
good	provenance	`XGBOOST_REASONING_PRESENT`	Match-level xgboost_reasoning present (XGBoost).
good	model_behavior	`LAMBDA_REASONING_CONSISTENCY`	Lambdas in xgboost_reasoning match final Poisson lambdas (1.776 / 1.996).
good	provenance	`FBREF_PRIORS_ACTIVE`	FBref team priors applied (blend weight 0.192, home E[lambda]=3.5, away E[lambda]=3.5).
good	provenance	`XGBOOST_PLAYER_REASONING`	All 22 starters carry full XGBoost / FBref reasoning.
good	integrity	`TEAM_GOALS_SUM`	Everton: player goals reconcile to team total (1).
good	integrity	`TEAM_GOALS_SUM`	Chelsea: player goals reconcile to team total (2).
good	structure	`POSSESSION_SUMS_100`	Possession sums to 100.0%.
good	integrity	`PLAYER_STAT_REALISM`	All 22 projected player lines pass realism checks.
good	structure	`EXACTLY_ONE_GOALKEEPER`	Everton: exactly one goalkeeper (Jordan Pickford).
good	integrity	`SHOT_MATH_INTEGRITY`	All 11 projected lines have consistent shot components.
good	integrity	`TEAM_SHOTS_CAP`	Everton: 15 projected shots inside the realistic envelope.
good	structure	`EXACTLY_ONE_GOALKEEPER`	Chelsea: exactly one goalkeeper (Emiliano Martínez).
good	integrity	`SHOT_MATH_INTEGRITY`	All 11 projected lines have consistent shot components.
good	integrity	`TEAM_SHOTS_CAP`	Chelsea: 16 projected shots inside the realistic envelope.
good	provenance	`STANDING_AVAILABLE`	League-standing context available for both sides.
good	provenance	`RANKING_PROVENANCE`	22/22 starters carry a ranking source.
good	provenance	`DATA_DEPTH`	22/22 starters have adequate recent history.
good	provenance	`PREGAME_DIRECTION_AGREES`	Pregame favorite agrees with the model winner (Chelsea).
good	provenance	`PREGAME_TOTAL_CONSISTENT`	Pregame total 3.77 ~ Poisson total 3.77.

Valencia vs Athletic Club

20261017_ATH@VAL · LaLiga

CLEAN risk 0 pred 0-0 (Draw)λ 0.99 / 1.00conf 0.69 good 38

Problems (0)

none

Lambda evolution (audit trail)

Stage	Home λ	Away λ
Pre-competitive-floor	0.986	1.002
Pre-calibration	1.008	0.981
Final	0.986	1.002

competition_calibration_scale: 1.0competition_observed_total_goals: 0.0quality_gap_applied: Falsemismatch_score_pressure_applied: Falsecompetitive_underdog_floor_applied: Falsestage_discount: 1.0

Scoreline distribution

Top scorelines	P
0-0	13.9%
1-1	13.7%
0-1	13.6%
1-0	13.3%
0-2	6.9%

Outcome — home 33.9% · draw 31.3% · away 34.8%

Markets — O2.5 32.0% · BTTS 39.8%

Passed checks (38)

Sev	Category	Rule	Message
good	integrity	`SCHEMA_KEYS_PRESENT`	All required sections present.
good	structure	`LINEUP_ELEVEN`	Valencia: 11 starters.
good	structure	`FORMATION_VALID`	Valencia: formation 4-2-3-1 valid.
good	structure	`LINEUP_ELEVEN`	Athletic Club: 11 starters.
good	structure	`FORMATION_VALID`	Athletic Club: formation 4-2-3-1 valid.
good	probability	`OUTCOME_SUMS_ONE`	outcome sums to 1.0000.
good	probability	`MARKETS_COMPLEMENTARY`	Over/Under and BTTS pairs each sum to 1.
good	probability	`SCORELINE_PROBS_NONNEG`	All scoreline probabilities within [0,1].
good	probability	`GRID_SUMS_ONE`	scoreline grid sums to 0.9983.
good	model_behavior	`GRID_REPRODUCIBLE`	Grid reproducible from lambdas (max cell diff 0.0017).
good	model_behavior	`MOST_LIKELY_IS_MODE`	Headline score 0-0 is the modal scoreline.
good	probability	`MLS_PROBABILITY_MATCHES`	Headline probability matches the grid.
good	model_behavior	`OUTCOME_MATCHES_GRID`	Outcome split matches the grid (max diff 0.0008).
good	model_behavior	`MARKETS_MATCH_GRID`	Markets match the grid (max diff 0.0017).
good	integrity	`WINNER_IS_VALID_TEAM`	predicted_winner 'Draw' is a participating side.
good	model_behavior	`WINNER_PROBABILITY_DIRECTION`	predicted_winner 'Draw' follows the published modal scoreline 0-0. It differs from the calibrated 1X2 favorite 'Athletic Club', which is published separately and does not decide the call.
good	model_behavior	`LAMBDA_BOUNDS`	Lambdas in range (home 0.986, away 1.002).
good	provenance	`LAMBDA_FACTORS_PRESENT`	lambda_factors audit trail present.
good	model_behavior	`LAMBDA_CONSISTENCY`	Lambda identical across prediction / antagonist / factors.
good	model_behavior	`CALIBRATION_SCALE_BOUNDS`	Calibration scale 1.0 in range.
good	provenance	`XGBOOST_REASONING_PRESENT`	Match-level xgboost_reasoning present (XGBoost).
good	model_behavior	`LAMBDA_REASONING_CONSISTENCY`	Lambdas in xgboost_reasoning match final Poisson lambdas (0.986 / 1.002).
good	provenance	`FBREF_PRIORS_ACTIVE`	FBref team priors applied (blend weight 0.228, home E[lambda]=0.247, away E[lambda]=0.244).
good	provenance	`XGBOOST_PLAYER_REASONING`	All 22 starters carry full XGBoost / FBref reasoning.
good	integrity	`TEAM_GOALS_SUM`	Valencia: player goals reconcile to team total (0).
good	integrity	`TEAM_GOALS_SUM`	Athletic Club: player goals reconcile to team total (0).
good	structure	`POSSESSION_SUMS_100`	Possession sums to 100.0%.
good	integrity	`PLAYER_STAT_REALISM`	All 22 projected player lines pass realism checks.
good	structure	`EXACTLY_ONE_GOALKEEPER`	Valencia: exactly one goalkeeper (Stole Dimitrievski).
good	integrity	`SHOT_MATH_INTEGRITY`	All 11 projected lines have consistent shot components.
good	integrity	`TEAM_SHOTS_CAP`	Valencia: 12 projected shots inside the realistic envelope.
good	structure	`EXACTLY_ONE_GOALKEEPER`	Athletic Club: exactly one goalkeeper (Unai Simón).
good	integrity	`SHOT_MATH_INTEGRITY`	All 11 projected lines have consistent shot components.
good	integrity	`TEAM_SHOTS_CAP`	Athletic Club: 10 projected shots inside the realistic envelope.
good	provenance	`STANDING_AVAILABLE`	League-standing context available for both sides.
good	provenance	`RANKING_PROVENANCE`	22/22 starters carry a ranking source.
good	provenance	`DATA_DEPTH`	22/22 starters have adequate recent history.
good	provenance	`PREGAME_TOTAL_CONSISTENT`	Pregame total 1.99 ~ Poisson total 1.99.

Espanyol vs Atlético Madrid

20261017_ATM@ESP · LaLiga

CLEAN risk 0 pred 1-2 (Atlético Madrid)λ 1.34 / 2.33conf 0.76 good 40

Problems (0)

none

Lambda evolution (audit trail)

Stage	Home λ	Away λ
Pre-mismatch	1.440	2.221
Pre-competitive-floor	1.402	2.437
Pre-calibration	1.472	2.175
Final	1.337	2.325

competition_calibration_scale: 1.0competition_observed_total_goals: 0.0quality_gap_applied: Truemismatch_score_pressure_applied: Truecompetitive_underdog_floor_applied: Falsestage_discount: 1.0

Scoreline distribution

Top scorelines	P
1-2	9.3%
1-1	8.0%
1-3	7.2%
0-2	6.9%
2-2	6.2%

Outcome — home 21.1% · draw 19.5% · away 59.5%

Markets — O2.5 70.8% · BTTS 66.6%

Passed checks (40)

Sev	Category	Rule	Message
good	integrity	`SCHEMA_KEYS_PRESENT`	All required sections present.
good	structure	`LINEUP_ELEVEN`	Espanyol: 11 starters.
good	structure	`FORMATION_VALID`	Espanyol: formation 4-2-3-1 valid.
good	structure	`LINEUP_ELEVEN`	Atlético Madrid: 11 starters.
good	structure	`FORMATION_VALID`	Atlético Madrid: formation 4-2-3-1 valid.
good	probability	`OUTCOME_SUMS_ONE`	outcome sums to 1.0000.
good	probability	`MARKETS_COMPLEMENTARY`	Over/Under and BTTS pairs each sum to 1.
good	probability	`SCORELINE_PROBS_NONNEG`	All scoreline probabilities within [0,1].
good	probability	`GRID_SUMS_ONE`	scoreline grid sums to 0.9961.
good	model_behavior	`GRID_REPRODUCIBLE`	Grid reproducible from lambdas (max cell diff 0.0005).
good	model_behavior	`MOST_LIKELY_IS_MODE`	Headline score 1-2 is the modal scoreline.
good	probability	`MLS_PROBABILITY_MATCHES`	Headline probability matches the grid.
good	model_behavior	`OUTCOME_MATCHES_GRID`	Outcome split matches the grid (max diff 0.0020).
good	model_behavior	`MARKETS_MATCH_GRID`	Markets match the grid (max diff 0.0040).
good	integrity	`WINNER_IS_VALID_TEAM`	predicted_winner 'Atlético Madrid' is a participating side.
good	model_behavior	`WINNER_MATCHES_SCORE`	Winner agrees with headline score (Atlético Madrid).
good	model_behavior	`WINNER_PROBABILITY_DIRECTION`	predicted_winner 'Atlético Madrid' follows the published modal scoreline 1-2.
good	model_behavior	`LAMBDA_BOUNDS`	Lambdas in range (home 1.337, away 2.325).
good	provenance	`LAMBDA_FACTORS_PRESENT`	lambda_factors audit trail present.
good	model_behavior	`LAMBDA_CONSISTENCY`	Lambda identical across prediction / antagonist / factors.
good	model_behavior	`CALIBRATION_SCALE_BOUNDS`	Calibration scale 1.0 in range.
good	provenance	`XGBOOST_REASONING_PRESENT`	Match-level xgboost_reasoning present (XGBoost).
good	model_behavior	`LAMBDA_REASONING_CONSISTENCY`	Lambdas in xgboost_reasoning match final Poisson lambdas (1.337 / 2.325).
good	provenance	`FBREF_PRIORS_ACTIVE`	FBref team priors applied (blend weight 0.228, home E[lambda]=2.877, away E[lambda]=2.886).
good	provenance	`XGBOOST_PLAYER_REASONING`	All 22 starters carry full XGBoost / FBref reasoning.
good	integrity	`TEAM_GOALS_SUM`	Espanyol: player goals reconcile to team total (1).
good	integrity	`TEAM_GOALS_SUM`	Atlético Madrid: player goals reconcile to team total (2).
good	structure	`POSSESSION_SUMS_100`	Possession sums to 100.0%.
good	integrity	`PLAYER_STAT_REALISM`	All 22 projected player lines pass realism checks.
good	structure	`EXACTLY_ONE_GOALKEEPER`	Espanyol: exactly one goalkeeper (Ángel Fortuño).
good	integrity	`SHOT_MATH_INTEGRITY`	All 11 projected lines have consistent shot components.
good	integrity	`TEAM_SHOTS_CAP`	Espanyol: 11 projected shots inside the realistic envelope.
good	structure	`EXACTLY_ONE_GOALKEEPER`	Atlético Madrid: exactly one goalkeeper (Jan Oblak).
good	integrity	`SHOT_MATH_INTEGRITY`	All 11 projected lines have consistent shot components.
good	integrity	`TEAM_SHOTS_CAP`	Atlético Madrid: 16 projected shots inside the realistic envelope.
good	provenance	`STANDING_AVAILABLE`	League-standing context available for both sides.
good	provenance	`RANKING_PROVENANCE`	22/22 starters carry a ranking source.
good	provenance	`DATA_DEPTH`	21/22 starters have adequate recent history.
good	provenance	`PREGAME_DIRECTION_AGREES`	Pregame favorite agrees with the model winner (Atlético Madrid).
good	provenance	`PREGAME_TOTAL_CONSISTENT`	Pregame total 3.66 ~ Poisson total 3.66.

Real Betis vs Barcelona

20261017_BAR@BET · LaLiga

CLEAN risk 0 pred 1-3 (Barcelona)λ 1.49 / 3.81conf 0.83 good 40

Problems (0)

none

Lambda evolution (audit trail)

Stage	Home λ	Away λ
Pre-mismatch	1.692	3.616
Pre-calibration	1.484	3.376
Final	1.493	3.815

competition_calibration_scale: 1.0competition_observed_total_goals: 0.0quality_gap_applied: Truemismatch_score_pressure_applied: Truecompetitive_underdog_floor_applied: Falsestage_discount: 1.0

Scoreline distribution

Top scorelines	P
1-3	6.9%
1-4	6.6%
1-2	5.4%
2-3	5.1%
1-5	5.0%

Outcome — home 10.2% · draw 11.1% · away 78.6%

Markets — O2.5 89.8% · BTTS 75.8%

Passed checks (40)

Sev	Category	Rule	Message
good	integrity	`SCHEMA_KEYS_PRESENT`	All required sections present.
good	structure	`LINEUP_ELEVEN`	Real Betis: 11 starters.
good	structure	`FORMATION_VALID`	Real Betis: formation 4-2-3-1 valid.
good	structure	`LINEUP_ELEVEN`	Barcelona: 11 starters.
good	structure	`FORMATION_VALID`	Barcelona: formation 4-3-3 valid.
good	probability	`OUTCOME_SUMS_ONE`	outcome sums to 1.0000.
good	probability	`MARKETS_COMPLEMENTARY`	Over/Under and BTTS pairs each sum to 1.
good	probability	`SCORELINE_PROBS_NONNEG`	All scoreline probabilities within [0,1].
good	probability	`GRID_SUMS_ONE`	scoreline grid sums to 0.9965.
good	model_behavior	`GRID_REPRODUCIBLE`	Grid reproducible from lambdas (max cell diff 0.0004).
good	model_behavior	`MOST_LIKELY_IS_MODE`	Headline score 1-3 is the modal scoreline.
good	probability	`MLS_PROBABILITY_MATCHES`	Headline probability matches the grid.
good	model_behavior	`OUTCOME_MATCHES_GRID`	Outcome split matches the grid (max diff 0.0016).
good	model_behavior	`MARKETS_MATCH_GRID`	Markets match the grid (max diff 0.0036).
good	integrity	`WINNER_IS_VALID_TEAM`	predicted_winner 'Barcelona' is a participating side.
good	model_behavior	`WINNER_MATCHES_SCORE`	Winner agrees with headline score (Barcelona).
good	model_behavior	`WINNER_PROBABILITY_DIRECTION`	predicted_winner 'Barcelona' follows the published modal scoreline 1-3.
good	model_behavior	`LAMBDA_BOUNDS`	Lambdas in range (home 1.493, away 3.815).
good	provenance	`LAMBDA_FACTORS_PRESENT`	lambda_factors audit trail present.
good	model_behavior	`LAMBDA_CONSISTENCY`	Lambda identical across prediction / antagonist / factors.
good	model_behavior	`CALIBRATION_SCALE_BOUNDS`	Calibration scale 1.0 in range.
good	provenance	`XGBOOST_REASONING_PRESENT`	Match-level xgboost_reasoning present (XGBoost).
good	model_behavior	`LAMBDA_REASONING_CONSISTENCY`	Lambdas in xgboost_reasoning match final Poisson lambdas (1.493 / 3.815).
good	provenance	`FBREF_PRIORS_ACTIVE`	FBref team priors applied (blend weight 0.228, home E[lambda]=3.5, away E[lambda]=3.5).
good	provenance	`XGBOOST_PLAYER_REASONING`	All 22 starters carry full XGBoost / FBref reasoning.
good	integrity	`TEAM_GOALS_SUM`	Real Betis: player goals reconcile to team total (1).
good	integrity	`TEAM_GOALS_SUM`	Barcelona: player goals reconcile to team total (3).
good	structure	`POSSESSION_SUMS_100`	Possession sums to 100.0%.
good	integrity	`PLAYER_STAT_REALISM`	All 22 projected player lines pass realism checks.
good	structure	`EXACTLY_ONE_GOALKEEPER`	Real Betis: exactly one goalkeeper (Álvaro Valles).
good	integrity	`SHOT_MATH_INTEGRITY`	All 11 projected lines have consistent shot components.
good	integrity	`TEAM_SHOTS_CAP`	Real Betis: 14 projected shots inside the realistic envelope.
good	structure	`EXACTLY_ONE_GOALKEEPER`	Barcelona: exactly one goalkeeper (Joan García).
good	integrity	`SHOT_MATH_INTEGRITY`	All 11 projected lines have consistent shot components.
good	integrity	`TEAM_SHOTS_CAP`	Barcelona: 21 projected shots inside the realistic envelope.
good	provenance	`STANDING_AVAILABLE`	League-standing context available for both sides.
good	provenance	`RANKING_PROVENANCE`	22/22 starters carry a ranking source.
good	provenance	`DATA_DEPTH`	22/22 starters have adequate recent history.
good	provenance	`PREGAME_DIRECTION_AGREES`	Pregame favorite agrees with the model winner (Barcelona).
good	provenance	`PREGAME_TOTAL_CONSISTENT`	Pregame total 5.31 ~ Poisson total 5.31.

Villarreal vs Elche

20261017_ELC@VIL · LaLiga

CLEAN risk 0 pred 1-0 (Villarreal)λ 1.95 / 0.90conf 0.77 good 40

Problems (0)

none

Lambda evolution (audit trail)

Stage	Home λ	Away λ
Pre-mismatch	1.878	0.968
Pre-competitive-floor	2.048	0.944
Pre-calibration	1.839	0.989
Final	1.948	0.898

competition_calibration_scale: 1.0competition_observed_total_goals: 0.0quality_gap_applied: Truemismatch_score_pressure_applied: Truecompetitive_underdog_floor_applied: Falsestage_discount: 1.0

Scoreline distribution

Top scorelines	P
1-0	11.3%
2-0	11.0%
1-1	10.2%
2-1	9.9%
3-0	7.2%

Outcome — home 61.9% · draw 21.5% · away 16.6%

Markets — O2.5 54.1% · BTTS 50.9%

Passed checks (40)

Sev	Category	Rule	Message
good	integrity	`SCHEMA_KEYS_PRESENT`	All required sections present.
good	structure	`LINEUP_ELEVEN`	Villarreal: 11 starters.
good	structure	`FORMATION_VALID`	Villarreal: formation 4-4-2 valid.
good	structure	`LINEUP_ELEVEN`	Elche: 11 starters.
good	structure	`FORMATION_VALID`	Elche: formation 4-2-3-1 valid.
good	probability	`OUTCOME_SUMS_ONE`	outcome sums to 1.0000.
good	probability	`MARKETS_COMPLEMENTARY`	Over/Under and BTTS pairs each sum to 1.
good	probability	`SCORELINE_PROBS_NONNEG`	All scoreline probabilities within [0,1].
good	probability	`GRID_SUMS_ONE`	scoreline grid sums to 0.9968.
good	model_behavior	`GRID_REPRODUCIBLE`	Grid reproducible from lambdas (max cell diff 0.0006).
good	model_behavior	`MOST_LIKELY_IS_MODE`	Headline score 1-0 is the modal scoreline.
good	probability	`MLS_PROBABILITY_MATCHES`	Headline probability matches the grid.
good	model_behavior	`OUTCOME_MATCHES_GRID`	Outcome split matches the grid (max diff 0.0019).
good	model_behavior	`MARKETS_MATCH_GRID`	Markets match the grid (max diff 0.0031).
good	integrity	`WINNER_IS_VALID_TEAM`	predicted_winner 'Villarreal' is a participating side.
good	model_behavior	`WINNER_MATCHES_SCORE`	Winner agrees with headline score (Villarreal).
good	model_behavior	`WINNER_PROBABILITY_DIRECTION`	predicted_winner 'Villarreal' follows the published modal scoreline 1-0.
good	model_behavior	`LAMBDA_BOUNDS`	Lambdas in range (home 1.948, away 0.898).
good	provenance	`LAMBDA_FACTORS_PRESENT`	lambda_factors audit trail present.
good	model_behavior	`LAMBDA_CONSISTENCY`	Lambda identical across prediction / antagonist / factors.
good	model_behavior	`CALIBRATION_SCALE_BOUNDS`	Calibration scale 1.0 in range.
good	provenance	`XGBOOST_REASONING_PRESENT`	Match-level xgboost_reasoning present (XGBoost).
good	model_behavior	`LAMBDA_REASONING_CONSISTENCY`	Lambdas in xgboost_reasoning match final Poisson lambdas (1.948 / 0.898).
good	provenance	`FBREF_PRIORS_ACTIVE`	FBref team priors applied (blend weight 0.228, home E[lambda]=0.988, away E[lambda]=0.985).
good	provenance	`XGBOOST_PLAYER_REASONING`	All 22 starters carry full XGBoost / FBref reasoning.
good	integrity	`TEAM_GOALS_SUM`	Villarreal: player goals reconcile to team total (1).
good	integrity	`TEAM_GOALS_SUM`	Elche: player goals reconcile to team total (0).
good	structure	`POSSESSION_SUMS_100`	Possession sums to 100.0%.
good	integrity	`PLAYER_STAT_REALISM`	All 22 projected player lines pass realism checks.
good	structure	`EXACTLY_ONE_GOALKEEPER`	Villarreal: exactly one goalkeeper (Péter Gulácsi).
good	integrity	`SHOT_MATH_INTEGRITY`	All 11 projected lines have consistent shot components.
good	integrity	`TEAM_SHOTS_CAP`	Villarreal: 14 projected shots inside the realistic envelope.
good	structure	`EXACTLY_ONE_GOALKEEPER`	Elche: exactly one goalkeeper (Matías Dituro).
good	integrity	`SHOT_MATH_INTEGRITY`	All 11 projected lines have consistent shot components.
good	integrity	`TEAM_SHOTS_CAP`	Elche: 12 projected shots inside the realistic envelope.
good	provenance	`STANDING_AVAILABLE`	League-standing context available for both sides.
good	provenance	`RANKING_PROVENANCE`	22/22 starters carry a ranking source.
good	provenance	`DATA_DEPTH`	22/22 starters have adequate recent history.
good	provenance	`PREGAME_DIRECTION_AGREES`	Pregame favorite agrees with the model winner (Villarreal).
good	provenance	`PREGAME_TOTAL_CONSISTENT`	Pregame total 2.85 ~ Poisson total 2.85.

Fulham vs Hull

20261017_HUL@FUL · Premier League

CLEAN risk 0 pred 1-1 (Draw)λ 1.30 / 1.04conf 0.7 good 38

Problems (0)

none

Lambda evolution (audit trail)

Stage	Home λ	Away λ
Pre-competitive-floor	1.302	1.040
Pre-calibration	1.275	1.063
Final	1.302	1.040

competition_calibration_scale: 1.0competition_observed_total_goals: 0.0quality_gap_applied: Truemismatch_score_pressure_applied: Falsecompetitive_underdog_floor_applied: Falsestage_discount: 1.0

Scoreline distribution

Top scorelines	P
1-1	13.1%
1-0	12.4%
0-1	9.9%
0-0	9.7%
2-1	8.5%

Outcome — home 42.4% · draw 28.0% · away 29.6%

Markets — O2.5 41.5% · BTTS 47.2%

Passed checks (38)

Sev	Category	Rule	Message
good	integrity	`SCHEMA_KEYS_PRESENT`	All required sections present.
good	structure	`LINEUP_ELEVEN`	Fulham: 11 starters.
good	structure	`FORMATION_VALID`	Fulham: formation 4-2-3-1 valid.
good	structure	`LINEUP_ELEVEN`	Hull: 11 starters.
good	structure	`FORMATION_VALID`	Hull: formation 5-4-1 valid.
good	probability	`OUTCOME_SUMS_ONE`	outcome sums to 1.0000.
good	probability	`MARKETS_COMPLEMENTARY`	Over/Under and BTTS pairs each sum to 1.
good	probability	`SCORELINE_PROBS_NONNEG`	All scoreline probabilities within [0,1].
good	probability	`GRID_SUMS_ONE`	scoreline grid sums to 0.9979.
good	model_behavior	`GRID_REPRODUCIBLE`	Grid reproducible from lambdas (max cell diff 0.0012).
good	model_behavior	`MOST_LIKELY_IS_MODE`	Headline score 1-1 is the modal scoreline.
good	probability	`MLS_PROBABILITY_MATCHES`	Headline probability matches the grid.
good	model_behavior	`OUTCOME_MATCHES_GRID`	Outcome split matches the grid (max diff 0.0011).
good	model_behavior	`MARKETS_MATCH_GRID`	Markets match the grid (max diff 0.0021).
good	integrity	`WINNER_IS_VALID_TEAM`	predicted_winner 'Draw' is a participating side.
good	model_behavior	`WINNER_PROBABILITY_DIRECTION`	predicted_winner 'Draw' follows the published modal scoreline 1-1. It differs from the calibrated 1X2 favorite 'Fulham', which is published separately and does not decide the call.
good	model_behavior	`LAMBDA_BOUNDS`	Lambdas in range (home 1.302, away 1.04).
good	provenance	`LAMBDA_FACTORS_PRESENT`	lambda_factors audit trail present.
good	model_behavior	`LAMBDA_CONSISTENCY`	Lambda identical across prediction / antagonist / factors.
good	model_behavior	`CALIBRATION_SCALE_BOUNDS`	Calibration scale 1.0 in range.
good	provenance	`XGBOOST_REASONING_PRESENT`	Match-level xgboost_reasoning present (XGBoost).
good	model_behavior	`LAMBDA_REASONING_CONSISTENCY`	Lambdas in xgboost_reasoning match final Poisson lambdas (1.302 / 1.04).
good	provenance	`FBREF_PRIORS_ACTIVE`	FBref team priors applied (blend weight 0.192, home E[lambda]=1.034, away E[lambda]=1.034).
good	provenance	`XGBOOST_PLAYER_REASONING`	All 22 starters carry full XGBoost / FBref reasoning.
good	integrity	`TEAM_GOALS_SUM`	Fulham: player goals reconcile to team total (1).
good	integrity	`TEAM_GOALS_SUM`	Hull: player goals reconcile to team total (1).
good	structure	`POSSESSION_SUMS_100`	Possession sums to 100.0%.
good	integrity	`PLAYER_STAT_REALISM`	All 22 projected player lines pass realism checks.
good	structure	`EXACTLY_ONE_GOALKEEPER`	Fulham: exactly one goalkeeper (Bernd Leno).
good	integrity	`SHOT_MATH_INTEGRITY`	All 11 projected lines have consistent shot components.
good	integrity	`TEAM_SHOTS_CAP`	Fulham: 13 projected shots inside the realistic envelope.
good	structure	`EXACTLY_ONE_GOALKEEPER`	Hull: exactly one goalkeeper (Konstantinos Tzolakis).
good	integrity	`SHOT_MATH_INTEGRITY`	All 11 projected lines have consistent shot components.
good	integrity	`TEAM_SHOTS_CAP`	Hull: 10 projected shots inside the realistic envelope.
good	provenance	`STANDING_AVAILABLE`	League-standing context available for both sides.
good	provenance	`RANKING_PROVENANCE`	22/22 starters carry a ranking source.
good	provenance	`DATA_DEPTH`	22/22 starters have adequate recent history.
good	provenance	`PREGAME_TOTAL_CONSISTENT`	Pregame total 2.34 ~ Poisson total 2.34.

Man City vs Ipswich

20261017_IPS@MCI · Premier League

CLEAN risk 0 pred 3-1 (Man City)λ 3.08 / 1.18conf 0.79 good 40

Problems (0)

none

Lambda evolution (audit trail)

Stage	Home λ	Away λ
Pre-mismatch	2.919	1.336
Pre-calibration	2.858	1.365
Final	3.079	1.176

competition_calibration_scale: 1.0competition_observed_total_goals: 0.0quality_gap_applied: Truemismatch_score_pressure_applied: Truecompetitive_underdog_floor_applied: Falsestage_discount: 1.0

Scoreline distribution

Top scorelines	P
3-1	8.1%
2-1	7.9%
3-0	6.9%
2-0	6.7%
4-1	6.3%

Outcome — home 75.2% · draw 13.6% · away 11.2%

Markets — O2.5 79.7% · BTTS 66.0%

Passed checks (40)

Sev	Category	Rule	Message
good	integrity	`SCHEMA_KEYS_PRESENT`	All required sections present.
good	structure	`LINEUP_ELEVEN`	Man City: 11 starters.
good	structure	`FORMATION_VALID`	Man City: formation 4-2-3-1 valid.
good	structure	`LINEUP_ELEVEN`	Ipswich: 11 starters.
good	structure	`FORMATION_VALID`	Ipswich: formation 4-2-3-1 valid.
good	probability	`OUTCOME_SUMS_ONE`	outcome sums to 1.0000.
good	probability	`MARKETS_COMPLEMENTARY`	Over/Under and BTTS pairs each sum to 1.
good	probability	`SCORELINE_PROBS_NONNEG`	All scoreline probabilities within [0,1].
good	probability	`GRID_SUMS_ONE`	scoreline grid sums to 0.9972.
good	model_behavior	`GRID_REPRODUCIBLE`	Grid reproducible from lambdas (max cell diff 0.0003).
good	model_behavior	`MOST_LIKELY_IS_MODE`	Headline score 3-1 is the modal scoreline.
good	probability	`MLS_PROBABILITY_MATCHES`	Headline probability matches the grid.
good	model_behavior	`OUTCOME_MATCHES_GRID`	Outcome split matches the grid (max diff 0.0013).
good	model_behavior	`MARKETS_MATCH_GRID`	Markets match the grid (max diff 0.0028).
good	integrity	`WINNER_IS_VALID_TEAM`	predicted_winner 'Man City' is a participating side.
good	model_behavior	`WINNER_MATCHES_SCORE`	Winner agrees with headline score (Man City).
good	model_behavior	`WINNER_PROBABILITY_DIRECTION`	predicted_winner 'Man City' follows the published modal scoreline 3-1.
good	model_behavior	`LAMBDA_BOUNDS`	Lambdas in range (home 3.079, away 1.176).
good	provenance	`LAMBDA_FACTORS_PRESENT`	lambda_factors audit trail present.
good	model_behavior	`LAMBDA_CONSISTENCY`	Lambda identical across prediction / antagonist / factors.
good	model_behavior	`CALIBRATION_SCALE_BOUNDS`	Calibration scale 1.0 in range.
good	provenance	`XGBOOST_REASONING_PRESENT`	Match-level xgboost_reasoning present (XGBoost).
good	model_behavior	`LAMBDA_REASONING_CONSISTENCY`	Lambdas in xgboost_reasoning match final Poisson lambdas (3.079 / 1.176).
good	provenance	`FBREF_PRIORS_ACTIVE`	FBref team priors applied (blend weight 0.192, home E[lambda]=3.5, away E[lambda]=3.5).
good	provenance	`XGBOOST_PLAYER_REASONING`	All 22 starters carry full XGBoost / FBref reasoning.
good	integrity	`TEAM_GOALS_SUM`	Man City: player goals reconcile to team total (3).
good	integrity	`TEAM_GOALS_SUM`	Ipswich: player goals reconcile to team total (1).
good	structure	`POSSESSION_SUMS_100`	Possession sums to 100.0%.
good	integrity	`PLAYER_STAT_REALISM`	All 22 projected player lines pass realism checks.
good	structure	`EXACTLY_ONE_GOALKEEPER`	Man City: exactly one goalkeeper (Gianluigi Donnarumma).
good	integrity	`SHOT_MATH_INTEGRITY`	All 11 projected lines have consistent shot components.
good	integrity	`TEAM_SHOTS_CAP`	Man City: 19 projected shots inside the realistic envelope.
good	structure	`EXACTLY_ONE_GOALKEEPER`	Ipswich: exactly one goalkeeper (Christian Walton).
good	integrity	`SHOT_MATH_INTEGRITY`	All 11 projected lines have consistent shot components.
good	integrity	`TEAM_SHOTS_CAP`	Ipswich: 12 projected shots inside the realistic envelope.
good	provenance	`STANDING_AVAILABLE`	League-standing context available for both sides.
good	provenance	`RANKING_PROVENANCE`	22/22 starters carry a ranking source.
good	provenance	`DATA_DEPTH`	21/22 starters have adequate recent history.
good	provenance	`PREGAME_DIRECTION_AGREES`	Pregame favorite agrees with the model winner (Man City).
good	provenance	`PREGAME_TOTAL_CONSISTENT`	Pregame total 4.25 ~ Poisson total 4.25.

Brentford vs Liverpool

20261017_LIV@BRE · Premier League

CLEAN risk 0 pred 1-1 (Draw)λ 1.43 / 1.55conf 0.7 good 38

Problems (0)

none

Lambda evolution (audit trail)

Stage	Home λ	Away λ
Pre-competitive-floor	1.433	1.547
Pre-calibration	1.475	1.504
Final	1.433	1.547

competition_calibration_scale: 1.0competition_observed_total_goals: 0.0quality_gap_applied: Truemismatch_score_pressure_applied: Falsecompetitive_underdog_floor_applied: Falsestage_discount: 1.0

Scoreline distribution

Top scorelines	P
1-1	11.3%
1-2	8.7%
2-1	8.1%
0-1	7.8%
1-0	7.2%

Outcome — home 35.2% · draw 24.5% · away 40.2%

Markets — O2.5 57.2% · BTTS 60.0%

Passed checks (38)

Sev	Category	Rule	Message
good	integrity	`SCHEMA_KEYS_PRESENT`	All required sections present.
good	structure	`LINEUP_ELEVEN`	Brentford: 11 starters.
good	structure	`FORMATION_VALID`	Brentford: formation 4-2-3-1 valid.
good	structure	`LINEUP_ELEVEN`	Liverpool: 11 starters.
good	structure	`FORMATION_VALID`	Liverpool: formation 4-2-3-1 valid.
good	probability	`OUTCOME_SUMS_ONE`	outcome sums to 1.0000.
good	probability	`MARKETS_COMPLEMENTARY`	Over/Under and BTTS pairs each sum to 1.
good	probability	`SCORELINE_PROBS_NONNEG`	All scoreline probabilities within [0,1].
good	probability	`GRID_SUMS_ONE`	scoreline grid sums to 0.9969.
good	model_behavior	`GRID_REPRODUCIBLE`	Grid reproducible from lambdas (max cell diff 0.0009).
good	model_behavior	`MOST_LIKELY_IS_MODE`	Headline score 1-1 is the modal scoreline.
good	probability	`MLS_PROBABILITY_MATCHES`	Headline probability matches the grid.
good	model_behavior	`OUTCOME_MATCHES_GRID`	Outcome split matches the grid (max diff 0.0017).
good	model_behavior	`MARKETS_MATCH_GRID`	Markets match the grid (max diff 0.0032).
good	integrity	`WINNER_IS_VALID_TEAM`	predicted_winner 'Draw' is a participating side.
good	model_behavior	`WINNER_PROBABILITY_DIRECTION`	predicted_winner 'Draw' follows the published modal scoreline 1-1. It differs from the calibrated 1X2 favorite 'Liverpool', which is published separately and does not decide the call.
good	model_behavior	`LAMBDA_BOUNDS`	Lambdas in range (home 1.433, away 1.547).
good	provenance	`LAMBDA_FACTORS_PRESENT`	lambda_factors audit trail present.
good	model_behavior	`LAMBDA_CONSISTENCY`	Lambda identical across prediction / antagonist / factors.
good	model_behavior	`CALIBRATION_SCALE_BOUNDS`	Calibration scale 1.0 in range.
good	provenance	`XGBOOST_REASONING_PRESENT`	Match-level xgboost_reasoning present (XGBoost).
good	model_behavior	`LAMBDA_REASONING_CONSISTENCY`	Lambdas in xgboost_reasoning match final Poisson lambdas (1.433 / 1.547).
good	provenance	`FBREF_PRIORS_ACTIVE`	FBref team priors applied (blend weight 0.192, home E[lambda]=2.759, away E[lambda]=2.759).
good	provenance	`XGBOOST_PLAYER_REASONING`	All 22 starters carry full XGBoost / FBref reasoning.
good	integrity	`TEAM_GOALS_SUM`	Brentford: player goals reconcile to team total (1).
good	integrity	`TEAM_GOALS_SUM`	Liverpool: player goals reconcile to team total (1).
good	structure	`POSSESSION_SUMS_100`	Possession sums to 100.0%.
good	integrity	`PLAYER_STAT_REALISM`	All 22 projected player lines pass realism checks.
good	structure	`EXACTLY_ONE_GOALKEEPER`	Brentford: exactly one goalkeeper (Caoimhin Kelleher).
good	integrity	`SHOT_MATH_INTEGRITY`	All 11 projected lines have consistent shot components.
good	integrity	`TEAM_SHOTS_CAP`	Brentford: 13 projected shots inside the realistic envelope.
good	structure	`EXACTLY_ONE_GOALKEEPER`	Liverpool: exactly one goalkeeper (Alisson).
good	integrity	`SHOT_MATH_INTEGRITY`	All 11 projected lines have consistent shot components.
good	integrity	`TEAM_SHOTS_CAP`	Liverpool: 15 projected shots inside the realistic envelope.
good	provenance	`STANDING_AVAILABLE`	League-standing context available for both sides.
good	provenance	`RANKING_PROVENANCE`	22/22 starters carry a ranking source.
good	provenance	`DATA_DEPTH`	22/22 starters have adequate recent history.
good	provenance	`PREGAME_TOTAL_CONSISTENT`	Pregame total 2.98 ~ Poisson total 2.98.

Rule catalogue

Rule	Description	Triggered
`SCHEMA_KEYS_PRESENT`	All required top-level sections exist in the artifact.	ok
`LINEUP_ELEVEN`	Each side fields exactly 11 starters.	ok
`FORMATION_VALID`	Formation string parses and its outfield lines sum to 10.	ok
`POSSESSION_SUMS_100`	Estimated possession of both teams sums to ~100%.	ok
`TEAM_GOALS_SUM`	Players' projected integer goals sum to the team's headline score.	ok
`TEAM_TOTALS_SCORE_MATCH`	team_totals.projected_goals equals the headline score component.	ok
`TEAM_EG_LAMBDA_MATCH`	team_totals.expected_goals matches the team's Poisson lambda.	ok
`PLAYER_STAT_REALISM`	Projected player lines are internally consistent (xG<=shots, accurate<=total passes, minutes/rating in range).	ok
`EXACTLY_ONE_GOALKEEPER`	Each starting XI fields exactly one goalkeeper.	ok
`SHOT_MATH_INTEGRITY`	Shot components are physically consistent (on target <= total, on+off <= total; blocked shots cannot be negative).	ok
`PLAYER_MINUTES_LEAGUE_CAP`	No player projects more minutes than the competition clock allows (90 + stoppage, or extra time in cups).	ok
`TEAM_SHOTS_CAP`	Team projected shots stay inside the realistic historical envelope (~35).	ok
`OUTCOME_SUMS_ONE`	home_win + draw + away_win sums to 1.	ok
`MARKETS_COMPLEMENTARY`	Over/Under and BTTS pairs each sum to 1.	ok
`GRID_SUMS_ONE`	The scoreline probability grid sums to ~1.	ok
`SCORELINE_PROBS_NONNEG`	Every scoreline probability is a valid [0,1] value.	ok
`GRID_REPRODUCIBLE`	The reported scoreline grid is reproducible from the lambdas.	ok
`MOST_LIKELY_IS_MODE`	The headline most-likely score is the distribution's modal scoreline.	1 problems
`MLS_PROBABILITY_MATCHES`	most_likely_score_probability equals the grid value of that score.	ok
`OUTCOME_MATCHES_GRID`	The reported win/draw/loss split is derivable from the grid.	ok
`MARKETS_MATCH_GRID`	The reported Over/Under and BTTS are derivable from the grid.	ok
`WINNER_MATCHES_SCORE`	predicted_winner agrees with the headline score direction.	ok
`WINNER_PROBABILITY_DIRECTION`	predicted_winner derives from the published modal scoreline; diverging from the 1X2 favorite is expected.	ok
`WINNER_IS_VALID_TEAM`	predicted_winner names a participating team (or Draw).	ok
`MODAL_OUTCOME_IS_DRAW`	Draw is the single largest outcome bucket while a team is named.	ok
`LAMBDA_BOUNDS`	Both lambdas fall inside the engine's [0.55, 5.00] envelope.	ok
`LAMBDA_CONSISTENCY`	The lambda is identical across prediction / antagonist / lambda_factors.	ok
`LAMBDA_FACTORS_PRESENT`	The lambda_factors decomposition (audit trail) is present.	ok
`CALIBRATION_SCALE_BOUNDS`	competition_calibration_scale stays within [0.85, 1.35].	ok
`CALIBRATION_RECORDED`	When calibration ran, the pre-calibration lambdas are recorded.	ok
`STANDING_AVAILABLE`	League-standing context is available for a domestic fixture.	ok
`RANKING_PROVENANCE`	Player ranking/quality signals carry a recognised source.	ok
`DATA_DEPTH`	Starters have enough recent games to model rather than synthesise.	ok
`FBREF_PRIORS_ACTIVE`	FBref season-prior files exist so that branch is not silently inert.	1 problems
`XGBOOST_REASONING_PRESENT`	Match-level xgboost_reasoning payload is present with full tracing pipeline.	ok
`XGBOOST_PLAYER_REASONING`	Starters have xgboost_reasoning metadata tracking feature contributions and FBref priors.	ok
`LAMBDA_REASONING_CONSISTENCY`	Lambdas reported in xgboost_reasoning match the final Poisson lambdas.	ok
`PREGAME_DIRECTION_AGREES`	The pregame fair-line favorite agrees with the model winner.	ok
`PREGAME_TOTAL_CONSISTENT`	The pregame expected total is close to the sum of the lambdas.	ok
`RESULT_WINNER_HIT`	The predicted winner matched the real result.	ok
`RESULT_EXACT_SCORE_HIT`	The headline score matched the real scoreline exactly.	ok
`RESULT_OU_HIT`	The Over/Under 2.5 lean matched reality.	ok
`RESULT_BTTS_HIT`	The BTTS lean matched reality.	ok
`RESULT_CONFIDENT_MISS`	A high-confidence prediction did not reach the real outcome.	ok
`OUTCOME_BRIER`	Brier score of the win/draw/loss probabilities vs the real result.	ok

Generated 2026-10-17 13:38:35 UTC · Soccer prediction reporting