In 1 match(es) the headline score is not the distribution's modal scoreline (a breach of the published-mode contract) — see the MOST_LIKELY_IS_MODE findings.
| Sev | Category | Rule | Message | Value | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| warning | model_behavior | MOST_LIKELY_IS_MODE | Headline score is not the modal scoreline (modal=1-1 (p=0.1061), shown=2-1 (p=0.0974)); the published exact score must be the grid mode, and the winning scenario belongs in the labelled most_likely_winning_score_home/away fields. Both lean Villarreal. | 2-1 | 1-1 |
| Stage | Home λ | Away λ |
|---|---|---|
| Pre-competitive-floor | 2.191 | 1.384 |
| Pre-calibration | 2.046 | 1.214 |
| Final | 1.848 | 1.191 |
| Top scorelines | P |
|---|---|
| 1-1 | 10.6% |
| 2-1 | 9.7% |
| 1-0 | 8.8% |
| 2-0 | 8.2% |
| 1-2 | 6.3% |
| Sev | Category | Rule | Message | Value | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| good | integrity | SCHEMA_KEYS_PRESENT | All required sections present. | ||
| good | structure | LINEUP_ELEVEN | Villarreal: 11 starters. | ||
| good | structure | FORMATION_VALID | Villarreal: formation 4-4-2 valid. | ||
| good | structure | LINEUP_ELEVEN | Espanyol: 11 starters. | ||
| good | structure | FORMATION_VALID | Espanyol: formation 4-2-3-1 valid. | ||
| good | probability | OUTCOME_SUMS_ONE | outcome sums to 1.0000. | ||
| good | probability | MARKETS_COMPLEMENTARY | Over/Under and BTTS pairs each sum to 1. | ||
| good | probability | SCORELINE_PROBS_NONNEG | All scoreline probabilities within [0,1]. | ||
| good | probability | GRID_SUMS_ONE | scoreline grid sums to 0.9964. | ||
| good | model_behavior | GRID_REPRODUCIBLE | Grid reproducible from lambdas (max cell diff 0.0007). | ||
| good | probability | MLS_PROBABILITY_MATCHES | Headline probability matches the grid. | ||
| good | model_behavior | OUTCOME_MATCHES_GRID | Outcome split matches the grid (max diff 0.0018). | ||
| good | model_behavior | MARKETS_MATCH_GRID | Markets match the grid (max diff 0.0037). | ||
| good | integrity | WINNER_IS_VALID_TEAM | predicted_winner 'Villarreal' is a participating side. | ||
| good | model_behavior | WINNER_MATCHES_SCORE | Winner agrees with headline score (Villarreal). | ||
| good | model_behavior | WINNER_PROBABILITY_DIRECTION | predicted_winner 'Villarreal' follows the published modal scoreline 2-1. | ||
| good | model_behavior | LAMBDA_BOUNDS | Lambdas in range (home 1.848, away 1.191). | ||
| good | provenance | LAMBDA_FACTORS_PRESENT | lambda_factors audit trail present. | ||
| good | model_behavior | LAMBDA_CONSISTENCY | Lambda identical across prediction / antagonist / factors. | ||
| good | model_behavior | CALIBRATION_SCALE_BOUNDS | Calibration scale 0.85 in range. | ||
| good | provenance | CALIBRATION_RECORDED | Calibration recorded with pre/post lambdas. | ||
| good | provenance | XGBOOST_REASONING_PRESENT | Match-level xgboost_reasoning present (XGBoost). | ||
| good | model_behavior | LAMBDA_REASONING_CONSISTENCY | Lambdas in xgboost_reasoning match final Poisson lambdas (1.848 / 1.191). | ||
| good | provenance | FBREF_PRIORS_ACTIVE | FBref team priors applied (blend weight 0.228, home E[lambda]=1.649, away E[lambda]=1.642). | ||
| good | provenance | XGBOOST_PLAYER_REASONING | All 22 starters carry full XGBoost / FBref reasoning. | ||
| good | integrity | TEAM_GOALS_SUM | Villarreal: player goals reconcile to team total (2). | ||
| good | integrity | TEAM_GOALS_SUM | Espanyol: player goals reconcile to team total (1). | ||
| good | structure | POSSESSION_SUMS_100 | Possession sums to 100.0%. | ||
| good | integrity | PLAYER_STAT_REALISM | All 22 projected player lines pass realism checks. | ||
| good | structure | EXACTLY_ONE_GOALKEEPER | Villarreal: exactly one goalkeeper (Péter Gulácsi). | ||
| good | integrity | SHOT_MATH_INTEGRITY | All 11 projected lines have consistent shot components. | ||
| good | integrity | TEAM_SHOTS_CAP | Villarreal: 18 projected shots inside the realistic envelope. | ||
| good | structure | EXACTLY_ONE_GOALKEEPER | Espanyol: exactly one goalkeeper (Ángel Fortuño). | ||
| good | integrity | SHOT_MATH_INTEGRITY | All 11 projected lines have consistent shot components. | ||
| good | integrity | TEAM_SHOTS_CAP | Espanyol: 11 projected shots inside the realistic envelope. | ||
| good | provenance | STANDING_AVAILABLE | League-standing context available for both sides. | ||
| good | provenance | RANKING_PROVENANCE | 22/22 starters carry a ranking source. | ||
| good | provenance | DATA_DEPTH | 22/22 starters have adequate recent history. | ||
| good | provenance | PREGAME_DIRECTION_AGREES | Pregame favorite agrees with the model winner (Villarreal). | ||
| good | provenance | PREGAME_TOTAL_CONSISTENT | Pregame total 3.04 ~ Poisson total 3.04. |
| Rule | Description | Triggered |
|---|---|---|
SCHEMA_KEYS_PRESENT | All required top-level sections exist in the artifact. | ok |
LINEUP_ELEVEN | Each side fields exactly 11 starters. | ok |
FORMATION_VALID | Formation string parses and its outfield lines sum to 10. | ok |
POSSESSION_SUMS_100 | Estimated possession of both teams sums to ~100%. | ok |
TEAM_GOALS_SUM | Players' projected integer goals sum to the team's headline score. | ok |
TEAM_TOTALS_SCORE_MATCH | team_totals.projected_goals equals the headline score component. | ok |
TEAM_EG_LAMBDA_MATCH | team_totals.expected_goals matches the team's Poisson lambda. | ok |
PLAYER_STAT_REALISM | Projected player lines are internally consistent (xG<=shots, accurate<=total passes, minutes/rating in range). | ok |
EXACTLY_ONE_GOALKEEPER | Each starting XI fields exactly one goalkeeper. | ok |
SHOT_MATH_INTEGRITY | Shot components are physically consistent (on target <= total, on+off <= total; blocked shots cannot be negative). | ok |
PLAYER_MINUTES_LEAGUE_CAP | No player projects more minutes than the competition clock allows (90 + stoppage, or extra time in cups). | ok |
TEAM_SHOTS_CAP | Team projected shots stay inside the realistic historical envelope (~35). | ok |
OUTCOME_SUMS_ONE | home_win + draw + away_win sums to 1. | ok |
MARKETS_COMPLEMENTARY | Over/Under and BTTS pairs each sum to 1. | ok |
GRID_SUMS_ONE | The scoreline probability grid sums to ~1. | ok |
SCORELINE_PROBS_NONNEG | Every scoreline probability is a valid [0,1] value. | ok |
GRID_REPRODUCIBLE | The reported scoreline grid is reproducible from the lambdas. | ok |
MOST_LIKELY_IS_MODE | The headline most-likely score is the distribution's modal scoreline. | 1 problems |
MLS_PROBABILITY_MATCHES | most_likely_score_probability equals the grid value of that score. | ok |
OUTCOME_MATCHES_GRID | The reported win/draw/loss split is derivable from the grid. | ok |
MARKETS_MATCH_GRID | The reported Over/Under and BTTS are derivable from the grid. | ok |
WINNER_MATCHES_SCORE | predicted_winner agrees with the headline score direction. | ok |
WINNER_PROBABILITY_DIRECTION | predicted_winner derives from the published modal scoreline; diverging from the 1X2 favorite is expected. | ok |
WINNER_IS_VALID_TEAM | predicted_winner names a participating team (or Draw). | ok |
MODAL_OUTCOME_IS_DRAW | Draw is the single largest outcome bucket while a team is named. | ok |
LAMBDA_BOUNDS | Both lambdas fall inside the engine's [0.55, 5.00] envelope. | ok |
LAMBDA_CONSISTENCY | The lambda is identical across prediction / antagonist / lambda_factors. | ok |
LAMBDA_FACTORS_PRESENT | The lambda_factors decomposition (audit trail) is present. | ok |
CALIBRATION_SCALE_BOUNDS | competition_calibration_scale stays within [0.85, 1.35]. | ok |
CALIBRATION_RECORDED | When calibration ran, the pre-calibration lambdas are recorded. | ok |
STANDING_AVAILABLE | League-standing context is available for a domestic fixture. | ok |
RANKING_PROVENANCE | Player ranking/quality signals carry a recognised source. | ok |
DATA_DEPTH | Starters have enough recent games to model rather than synthesise. | ok |
FBREF_PRIORS_ACTIVE | FBref season-prior files exist so that branch is not silently inert. | ok |
XGBOOST_REASONING_PRESENT | Match-level xgboost_reasoning payload is present with full tracing pipeline. | ok |
XGBOOST_PLAYER_REASONING | Starters have xgboost_reasoning metadata tracking feature contributions and FBref priors. | ok |
LAMBDA_REASONING_CONSISTENCY | Lambdas reported in xgboost_reasoning match the final Poisson lambdas. | ok |
PREGAME_DIRECTION_AGREES | The pregame fair-line favorite agrees with the model winner. | ok |
PREGAME_TOTAL_CONSISTENT | The pregame expected total is close to the sum of the lambdas. | ok |
RESULT_WINNER_HIT | The predicted winner matched the real result. | ok |
RESULT_EXACT_SCORE_HIT | The headline score matched the real scoreline exactly. | ok |
RESULT_OU_HIT | The Over/Under 2.5 lean matched reality. | ok |
RESULT_BTTS_HIT | The BTTS lean matched reality. | ok |
RESULT_CONFIDENT_MISS | A high-confidence prediction did not reach the real outcome. | ok |
OUTCOME_BRIER | Brier score of the win/draw/loss probabilities vs the real result. | ok |