Soccer prediction system deep audit

Slate 20261031 · immutable forensic review of 12 match prediction artifact(s)

Executive conclusion

In 6 match(es) the headline score is not the distribution's modal scoreline (a breach of the published-mode contract) — see the MOST_LIKELY_IS_MODE findings.

At a glance

12matches audited

0critical

0errors

9warnings

0grid non-reproducible

6headline != modal

0winner disagreements

0lambda inconsistencies

0with real result

-winner hit-rate

-decisive hit-rate

17%predicted draws

-actual draws

0confident misses

-mean Brier

Matches

Tottenham vs Crystal Palace

20261031_CRY@TOT · Premier League

WARNINGS risk 20 pred 1-0 (Tottenham)λ 1.53 / 1.25conf 0.72 warning 2 good 39

Problems (2)

Sev	Category	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
warning	model_behavior	`MOST_LIKELY_IS_MODE`	Headline score is not the modal scoreline (modal=1-1 (p=0.1197), shown=1-0 (p=0.0937)); the published exact score must be the grid mode, and the winning scenario belongs in the labelled most_likely_winning_score_home/away fields. Both lean Tottenham.	1-0	1-1
warning	provenance	`FBREF_PRIORS_ACTIVE`	FBref dataset files not found; team priors inactive.

Lambda evolution (audit trail)

Stage	Home λ	Away λ
Pre-competitive-floor	1.471	1.170
Pre-calibration	1.495	1.079
Final	1.529	1.252

competition_calibration_scale: 1.053competition_observed_total_goals: 2.781quality_gap_applied: Truemismatch_score_pressure_applied: Falsecompetitive_underdog_floor_applied: Falsestage_discount: 1.0

Scoreline distribution

Top scorelines	P
1-1	12.0%
1-0	9.4%
2-1	9.1%
0-1	7.6%
1-2	7.4%

Outcome — home 43.6% · draw 25.3% · away 31.1%

Markets — O2.5 52.6% · BTTS 56.0%

Passed checks (39)

Sev	Category	Rule	Message
good	integrity	`SCHEMA_KEYS_PRESENT`	All required sections present.
good	structure	`LINEUP_ELEVEN`	Tottenham: 11 starters.
good	structure	`FORMATION_VALID`	Tottenham: formation 4-2-3-1 valid.
good	structure	`LINEUP_ELEVEN`	Crystal Palace: 11 starters.
good	structure	`FORMATION_VALID`	Crystal Palace: formation 3-4-2-1 valid.
good	probability	`OUTCOME_SUMS_ONE`	outcome sums to 1.0000.
good	probability	`MARKETS_COMPLEMENTARY`	Over/Under and BTTS pairs each sum to 1.
good	probability	`SCORELINE_PROBS_NONNEG`	All scoreline probabilities within [0,1].
good	probability	`GRID_SUMS_ONE`	scoreline grid sums to 0.9961.
good	model_behavior	`GRID_REPRODUCIBLE`	Grid reproducible from lambdas (max cell diff 0.0011).
good	probability	`MLS_PROBABILITY_MATCHES`	Headline probability matches the grid.
good	model_behavior	`OUTCOME_MATCHES_GRID`	Outcome split matches the grid (max diff 0.0020).
good	model_behavior	`MARKETS_MATCH_GRID`	Markets match the grid (max diff 0.0038).
good	integrity	`WINNER_IS_VALID_TEAM`	predicted_winner 'Tottenham' is a participating side.
good	model_behavior	`WINNER_MATCHES_SCORE`	Winner agrees with headline score (Tottenham).
good	model_behavior	`WINNER_PROBABILITY_DIRECTION`	predicted_winner 'Tottenham' follows the published modal scoreline 1-0.
good	model_behavior	`LAMBDA_BOUNDS`	Lambdas in range (home 1.529, away 1.252).
good	provenance	`LAMBDA_FACTORS_PRESENT`	lambda_factors audit trail present.
good	model_behavior	`LAMBDA_CONSISTENCY`	Lambda identical across prediction / antagonist / factors.
good	model_behavior	`CALIBRATION_SCALE_BOUNDS`	Calibration scale 1.053 in range.
good	provenance	`CALIBRATION_RECORDED`	Calibration recorded with pre/post lambdas.
good	provenance	`XGBOOST_REASONING_PRESENT`	Match-level xgboost_reasoning present (XGBoost).
good	model_behavior	`LAMBDA_REASONING_CONSISTENCY`	Lambdas in xgboost_reasoning match final Poisson lambdas (1.529 / 1.252).
good	provenance	`XGBOOST_PLAYER_REASONING`	All 22 starters carry full XGBoost / FBref reasoning.
good	integrity	`TEAM_GOALS_SUM`	Tottenham: player goals reconcile to team total (1).
good	integrity	`TEAM_GOALS_SUM`	Crystal Palace: player goals reconcile to team total (0).
good	structure	`POSSESSION_SUMS_100`	Possession sums to 100.0%.
good	integrity	`PLAYER_STAT_REALISM`	All 22 projected player lines pass realism checks.
good	structure	`EXACTLY_ONE_GOALKEEPER`	Tottenham: exactly one goalkeeper (Antonín Kinský).
good	integrity	`SHOT_MATH_INTEGRITY`	All 11 projected lines have consistent shot components.
good	integrity	`TEAM_SHOTS_CAP`	Tottenham: 13 projected shots inside the realistic envelope.
good	structure	`EXACTLY_ONE_GOALKEEPER`	Crystal Palace: exactly one goalkeeper (Dean Henderson).
good	integrity	`SHOT_MATH_INTEGRITY`	All 11 projected lines have consistent shot components.
good	integrity	`TEAM_SHOTS_CAP`	Crystal Palace: 13 projected shots inside the realistic envelope.
good	provenance	`STANDING_AVAILABLE`	League-standing context available for both sides.
good	provenance	`RANKING_PROVENANCE`	22/22 starters carry a ranking source.
good	provenance	`DATA_DEPTH`	22/22 starters have adequate recent history.
good	provenance	`PREGAME_DIRECTION_AGREES`	Pregame favorite agrees with the model winner (Tottenham).
good	provenance	`PREGAME_TOTAL_CONSISTENT`	Pregame total 2.78 ~ Poisson total 2.78.

Aston Villa vs Fulham

20261031_FUL@AVL · Premier League

WARNINGS risk 20 pred 1-0 (Aston Villa)λ 1.78 / 1.00conf 0.75 warning 2 good 39

Problems (2)

Sev	Category	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
warning	model_behavior	`MOST_LIKELY_IS_MODE`	Headline score is not the modal scoreline (modal=1-1 (p=0.1114), shown=1-0 (p=0.1093)); the published exact score must be the grid mode, and the winning scenario belongs in the labelled most_likely_winning_score_home/away fields. Both lean Aston Villa.	1-0	1-1
warning	provenance	`FBREF_PRIORS_ACTIVE`	FBref dataset files not found; team priors inactive.

Lambda evolution (audit trail)

Stage	Home λ	Away λ
Pre-competitive-floor	1.952	0.973
Pre-calibration	1.702	1.048
Final	1.776	1.005

competition_calibration_scale: 0.951competition_observed_total_goals: 2.781quality_gap_applied: Falsemismatch_score_pressure_applied: Falsecompetitive_underdog_floor_applied: Falsestage_discount: 1.0

Scoreline distribution

Top scorelines	P
1-1	11.1%
1-0	10.9%
2-1	9.8%
2-0	9.8%
0-0	6.3%

Outcome — home 55.4% · draw 23.4% · away 21.2%

Markets — O2.5 52.6% · BTTS 52.7%

Passed checks (39)

Sev	Category	Rule	Message
good	integrity	`SCHEMA_KEYS_PRESENT`	All required sections present.
good	structure	`LINEUP_ELEVEN`	Aston Villa: 11 starters.
good	structure	`FORMATION_VALID`	Aston Villa: formation 4-2-3-1 valid.
good	structure	`LINEUP_ELEVEN`	Fulham: 11 starters.
good	structure	`FORMATION_VALID`	Fulham: formation 4-2-3-1 valid.
good	probability	`OUTCOME_SUMS_ONE`	outcome sums to 1.0000.
good	probability	`MARKETS_COMPLEMENTARY`	Over/Under and BTTS pairs each sum to 1.
good	probability	`SCORELINE_PROBS_NONNEG`	All scoreline probabilities within [0,1].
good	probability	`GRID_SUMS_ONE`	scoreline grid sums to 0.9966.
good	model_behavior	`GRID_REPRODUCIBLE`	Grid reproducible from lambdas (max cell diff 0.0008).
good	probability	`MLS_PROBABILITY_MATCHES`	Headline probability matches the grid.
good	model_behavior	`OUTCOME_MATCHES_GRID`	Outcome split matches the grid (max diff 0.0020).
good	model_behavior	`MARKETS_MATCH_GRID`	Markets match the grid (max diff 0.0034).
good	integrity	`WINNER_IS_VALID_TEAM`	predicted_winner 'Aston Villa' is a participating side.
good	model_behavior	`WINNER_MATCHES_SCORE`	Winner agrees with headline score (Aston Villa).
good	model_behavior	`WINNER_PROBABILITY_DIRECTION`	predicted_winner 'Aston Villa' follows the published modal scoreline 1-0.
good	model_behavior	`LAMBDA_BOUNDS`	Lambdas in range (home 1.776, away 1.005).
good	provenance	`LAMBDA_FACTORS_PRESENT`	lambda_factors audit trail present.
good	model_behavior	`LAMBDA_CONSISTENCY`	Lambda identical across prediction / antagonist / factors.
good	model_behavior	`CALIBRATION_SCALE_BOUNDS`	Calibration scale 0.951 in range.
good	provenance	`CALIBRATION_RECORDED`	Calibration recorded with pre/post lambdas.
good	provenance	`XGBOOST_REASONING_PRESENT`	Match-level xgboost_reasoning present (XGBoost).
good	model_behavior	`LAMBDA_REASONING_CONSISTENCY`	Lambdas in xgboost_reasoning match final Poisson lambdas (1.776 / 1.005).
good	provenance	`XGBOOST_PLAYER_REASONING`	All 22 starters carry full XGBoost / FBref reasoning.
good	integrity	`TEAM_GOALS_SUM`	Aston Villa: player goals reconcile to team total (1).
good	integrity	`TEAM_GOALS_SUM`	Fulham: player goals reconcile to team total (0).
good	structure	`POSSESSION_SUMS_100`	Possession sums to 100.0%.
good	integrity	`PLAYER_STAT_REALISM`	All 22 projected player lines pass realism checks.
good	structure	`EXACTLY_ONE_GOALKEEPER`	Aston Villa: exactly one goalkeeper (Zion Suzuki).
good	integrity	`SHOT_MATH_INTEGRITY`	All 11 projected lines have consistent shot components.
good	integrity	`TEAM_SHOTS_CAP`	Aston Villa: 14 projected shots inside the realistic envelope.
good	structure	`EXACTLY_ONE_GOALKEEPER`	Fulham: exactly one goalkeeper (Bernd Leno).
good	integrity	`SHOT_MATH_INTEGRITY`	All 11 projected lines have consistent shot components.
good	integrity	`TEAM_SHOTS_CAP`	Fulham: 17 projected shots inside the realistic envelope.
good	provenance	`STANDING_AVAILABLE`	League-standing context available for both sides.
good	provenance	`RANKING_PROVENANCE`	22/22 starters carry a ranking source.
good	provenance	`DATA_DEPTH`	22/22 starters have adequate recent history.
good	provenance	`PREGAME_DIRECTION_AGREES`	Pregame favorite agrees with the model winner (Aston Villa).
good	provenance	`PREGAME_TOTAL_CONSISTENT`	Pregame total 2.78 ~ Poisson total 2.78.

Rayo Vallecano vs Celta

20261031_CEL@RAY · LaLiga

WARNINGS risk 10 pred 2-1 (Rayo Vallecano)λ 1.70 / 1.28conf 0.73 warning 1 good 40

Problems (1)

Sev	Category	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
warning	model_behavior	`MOST_LIKELY_IS_MODE`	Headline score is not the modal scoreline (modal=1-1 (p=0.1111), shown=2-1 (p=0.0940)); the published exact score must be the grid mode, and the winning scenario belongs in the labelled most_likely_winning_score_home/away fields. Both lean Rayo Vallecano.	2-1	1-1

Lambda evolution (audit trail)

Stage	Home λ	Away λ
Pre-competitive-floor	1.326	1.038
Pre-calibration	1.027	0.982
Final	1.704	1.280

competition_calibration_scale: 1.262competition_observed_total_goals: 2.984quality_gap_applied: Truemismatch_score_pressure_applied: Falsecompetitive_underdog_floor_applied: Falsestage_discount: 1.0

Scoreline distribution

Top scorelines	P
1-1	11.1%
2-1	9.4%
1-0	8.5%
2-0	7.3%
1-2	7.1%

Outcome — home 47.3% · draw 23.9% · away 28.7%

Markets — O2.5 57.3% · BTTS 59.1%

Passed checks (40)

Sev	Category	Rule	Message
good	integrity	`SCHEMA_KEYS_PRESENT`	All required sections present.
good	structure	`LINEUP_ELEVEN`	Rayo Vallecano: 11 starters.
good	structure	`FORMATION_VALID`	Rayo Vallecano: formation 4-2-3-1 valid.
good	structure	`LINEUP_ELEVEN`	Celta: 11 starters.
good	structure	`FORMATION_VALID`	Celta: formation 3-4-3 valid.
good	probability	`OUTCOME_SUMS_ONE`	outcome sums to 1.0000.
good	probability	`MARKETS_COMPLEMENTARY`	Over/Under and BTTS pairs each sum to 1.
good	probability	`SCORELINE_PROBS_NONNEG`	All scoreline probabilities within [0,1].
good	probability	`GRID_SUMS_ONE`	scoreline grid sums to 0.9966.
good	model_behavior	`GRID_REPRODUCIBLE`	Grid reproducible from lambdas (max cell diff 0.0008).
good	probability	`MLS_PROBABILITY_MATCHES`	Headline probability matches the grid.
good	model_behavior	`OUTCOME_MATCHES_GRID`	Outcome split matches the grid (max diff 0.0016).
good	model_behavior	`MARKETS_MATCH_GRID`	Markets match the grid (max diff 0.0032).
good	integrity	`WINNER_IS_VALID_TEAM`	predicted_winner 'Rayo Vallecano' is a participating side.
good	model_behavior	`WINNER_MATCHES_SCORE`	Winner agrees with headline score (Rayo Vallecano).
good	model_behavior	`WINNER_PROBABILITY_DIRECTION`	predicted_winner 'Rayo Vallecano' follows the published modal scoreline 2-1.
good	model_behavior	`LAMBDA_BOUNDS`	Lambdas in range (home 1.704, away 1.28).
good	provenance	`LAMBDA_FACTORS_PRESENT`	lambda_factors audit trail present.
good	model_behavior	`LAMBDA_CONSISTENCY`	Lambda identical across prediction / antagonist / factors.
good	model_behavior	`CALIBRATION_SCALE_BOUNDS`	Calibration scale 1.262 in range.
good	provenance	`CALIBRATION_RECORDED`	Calibration recorded with pre/post lambdas.
good	provenance	`XGBOOST_REASONING_PRESENT`	Match-level xgboost_reasoning present (XGBoost).
good	model_behavior	`LAMBDA_REASONING_CONSISTENCY`	Lambdas in xgboost_reasoning match final Poisson lambdas (1.704 / 1.28).
good	provenance	`FBREF_PRIORS_ACTIVE`	FBref team priors applied (blend weight 0.228, home E[lambda]=0.247, away E[lambda]=0.246).
good	provenance	`XGBOOST_PLAYER_REASONING`	All 22 starters carry full XGBoost / FBref reasoning.
good	integrity	`TEAM_GOALS_SUM`	Rayo Vallecano: player goals reconcile to team total (2).
good	integrity	`TEAM_GOALS_SUM`	Celta: player goals reconcile to team total (1).
good	structure	`POSSESSION_SUMS_100`	Possession sums to 100.0%.
good	integrity	`PLAYER_STAT_REALISM`	All 22 projected player lines pass realism checks.
good	structure	`EXACTLY_ONE_GOALKEEPER`	Rayo Vallecano: exactly one goalkeeper (Emil Audero).
good	integrity	`SHOT_MATH_INTEGRITY`	All 11 projected lines have consistent shot components.
good	integrity	`TEAM_SHOTS_CAP`	Rayo Vallecano: 12 projected shots inside the realistic envelope.
good	structure	`EXACTLY_ONE_GOALKEEPER`	Celta: exactly one goalkeeper (Ionuț Radu).
good	integrity	`SHOT_MATH_INTEGRITY`	All 11 projected lines have consistent shot components.
good	integrity	`TEAM_SHOTS_CAP`	Celta: 12 projected shots inside the realistic envelope.
good	provenance	`STANDING_AVAILABLE`	League-standing context available for both sides.
good	provenance	`RANKING_PROVENANCE`	22/22 starters carry a ranking source.
good	provenance	`DATA_DEPTH`	22/22 starters have adequate recent history.
good	provenance	`PREGAME_DIRECTION_AGREES`	Pregame favorite agrees with the model winner (Rayo Vallecano).
good	provenance	`PREGAME_TOTAL_CONSISTENT`	Pregame total 2.98 ~ Poisson total 2.98.

Bournemouth vs Leeds

20261031_LEE@BOU · Premier League

WARNINGS risk 10 pred 1-0 (Bournemouth)λ 1.57 / 1.22conf 0.73 warning 1 good 40

Problems (1)

Sev	Category	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
warning	model_behavior	`MOST_LIKELY_IS_MODE`	Headline score is not the modal scoreline (modal=1-1 (p=0.1190), shown=1-0 (p=0.0960)); the published exact score must be the grid mode, and the winning scenario belongs in the labelled most_likely_winning_score_home/away fields. Both lean Bournemouth.	1-0	1-1

Lambda evolution (audit trail)

Stage	Home λ	Away λ
Pre-competitive-floor	1.457	1.077
Pre-calibration	1.482	1.059
Final	1.566	1.215

competition_calibration_scale: 1.097competition_observed_total_goals: 2.781quality_gap_applied: Falsemismatch_score_pressure_applied: Falsecompetitive_underdog_floor_applied: Falsestage_discount: 1.0

Scoreline distribution

Top scorelines	P
1-1	11.9%
1-0	9.6%
2-1	9.2%
2-0	7.6%
0-1	7.4%

Outcome — home 45.4% · draw 25.1% · away 29.5%

Markets — O2.5 52.6% · BTTS 55.7%

Passed checks (40)

Sev	Category	Rule	Message
good	integrity	`SCHEMA_KEYS_PRESENT`	All required sections present.
good	structure	`LINEUP_ELEVEN`	Bournemouth: 11 starters.
good	structure	`FORMATION_VALID`	Bournemouth: formation 4-2-3-1 valid.
good	structure	`LINEUP_ELEVEN`	Leeds: 11 starters.
good	structure	`FORMATION_VALID`	Leeds: formation 3-4-2-1 valid.
good	probability	`OUTCOME_SUMS_ONE`	outcome sums to 0.9999.
good	probability	`MARKETS_COMPLEMENTARY`	Over/Under and BTTS pairs each sum to 1.
good	probability	`SCORELINE_PROBS_NONNEG`	All scoreline probabilities within [0,1].
good	probability	`GRID_SUMS_ONE`	scoreline grid sums to 0.9958.
good	model_behavior	`GRID_REPRODUCIBLE`	Grid reproducible from lambdas (max cell diff 0.0011).
good	probability	`MLS_PROBABILITY_MATCHES`	Headline probability matches the grid.
good	model_behavior	`OUTCOME_MATCHES_GRID`	Outcome split matches the grid (max diff 0.0021).
good	model_behavior	`MARKETS_MATCH_GRID`	Markets match the grid (max diff 0.0042).
good	integrity	`WINNER_IS_VALID_TEAM`	predicted_winner 'Bournemouth' is a participating side.
good	model_behavior	`WINNER_MATCHES_SCORE`	Winner agrees with headline score (Bournemouth).
good	model_behavior	`WINNER_PROBABILITY_DIRECTION`	predicted_winner 'Bournemouth' follows the published modal scoreline 1-0.
good	model_behavior	`LAMBDA_BOUNDS`	Lambdas in range (home 1.566, away 1.215).
good	provenance	`LAMBDA_FACTORS_PRESENT`	lambda_factors audit trail present.
good	model_behavior	`LAMBDA_CONSISTENCY`	Lambda identical across prediction / antagonist / factors.
good	model_behavior	`CALIBRATION_SCALE_BOUNDS`	Calibration scale 1.097 in range.
good	provenance	`CALIBRATION_RECORDED`	Calibration recorded with pre/post lambdas.
good	provenance	`XGBOOST_REASONING_PRESENT`	Match-level xgboost_reasoning present (XGBoost).
good	model_behavior	`LAMBDA_REASONING_CONSISTENCY`	Lambdas in xgboost_reasoning match final Poisson lambdas (1.566 / 1.215).
good	provenance	`FBREF_PRIORS_ACTIVE`	FBref team priors applied (blend weight 0.192, home E[lambda]=0.69, away E[lambda]=0.69).
good	provenance	`XGBOOST_PLAYER_REASONING`	All 22 starters carry full XGBoost / FBref reasoning.
good	integrity	`TEAM_GOALS_SUM`	Bournemouth: player goals reconcile to team total (1).
good	integrity	`TEAM_GOALS_SUM`	Leeds: player goals reconcile to team total (0).
good	structure	`POSSESSION_SUMS_100`	Possession sums to 100.0%.
good	integrity	`PLAYER_STAT_REALISM`	All 22 projected player lines pass realism checks.
good	structure	`EXACTLY_ONE_GOALKEEPER`	Bournemouth: exactly one goalkeeper (Đorđe Petrović).
good	integrity	`SHOT_MATH_INTEGRITY`	All 11 projected lines have consistent shot components.
good	integrity	`TEAM_SHOTS_CAP`	Bournemouth: 18 projected shots inside the realistic envelope.
good	structure	`EXACTLY_ONE_GOALKEEPER`	Leeds: exactly one goalkeeper (James Trafford).
good	integrity	`SHOT_MATH_INTEGRITY`	All 11 projected lines have consistent shot components.
good	integrity	`TEAM_SHOTS_CAP`	Leeds: 15 projected shots inside the realistic envelope.
good	provenance	`STANDING_AVAILABLE`	League-standing context available for both sides.
good	provenance	`RANKING_PROVENANCE`	22/22 starters carry a ranking source.
good	provenance	`DATA_DEPTH`	22/22 starters have adequate recent history.
good	provenance	`PREGAME_DIRECTION_AGREES`	Pregame favorite agrees with the model winner (Bournemouth).
good	provenance	`PREGAME_TOTAL_CONSISTENT`	Pregame total 2.78 ~ Poisson total 2.78.

Chelsea vs Man Utd

20261031_MUN@CHE · Premier League

WARNINGS risk 10 pred 2-1 (Chelsea)λ 1.66 / 1.42conf 0.71 warning 1 good 40

Problems (1)

Sev	Category	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
warning	model_behavior	`MOST_LIKELY_IS_MODE`	Headline score is not the modal scoreline (modal=1-1 (p=0.1090), shown=2-1 (p=0.0899)); the published exact score must be the grid mode, and the winning scenario belongs in the labelled most_likely_winning_score_home/away fields. Both lean Chelsea.	2-1	1-1

Lambda evolution (audit trail)

Stage	Home λ	Away λ
Pre-competitive-floor	1.963	1.664
Pre-calibration	1.810	1.692
Final	1.661	1.422

competition_calibration_scale: 0.85competition_observed_total_goals: 2.781quality_gap_applied: Falsemismatch_score_pressure_applied: Falsecompetitive_underdog_floor_applied: Falsestage_discount: 1.0

Scoreline distribution

Top scorelines	P
1-1	10.9%
2-1	9.0%
1-2	7.7%
1-0	7.5%
0-1	6.4%

Outcome — home 43.2% · draw 23.9% · away 32.9%

Markets — O2.5 59.5% · BTTS 61.5%

Passed checks (40)

Sev	Category	Rule	Message
good	integrity	`SCHEMA_KEYS_PRESENT`	All required sections present.
good	structure	`LINEUP_ELEVEN`	Chelsea: 11 starters.
good	structure	`FORMATION_VALID`	Chelsea: formation 4-2-3-1 valid.
good	structure	`LINEUP_ELEVEN`	Man Utd: 11 starters.
good	structure	`FORMATION_VALID`	Man Utd: formation 4-2-3-1 valid.
good	probability	`OUTCOME_SUMS_ONE`	outcome sums to 1.0001.
good	probability	`MARKETS_COMPLEMENTARY`	Over/Under and BTTS pairs each sum to 1.
good	probability	`SCORELINE_PROBS_NONNEG`	All scoreline probabilities within [0,1].
good	probability	`GRID_SUMS_ONE`	scoreline grid sums to 0.9968.
good	model_behavior	`GRID_REPRODUCIBLE`	Grid reproducible from lambdas (max cell diff 0.0008).
good	probability	`MLS_PROBABILITY_MATCHES`	Headline probability matches the grid.
good	model_behavior	`OUTCOME_MATCHES_GRID`	Outcome split matches the grid (max diff 0.0019).
good	model_behavior	`MARKETS_MATCH_GRID`	Markets match the grid (max diff 0.0031).
good	integrity	`WINNER_IS_VALID_TEAM`	predicted_winner 'Chelsea' is a participating side.
good	model_behavior	`WINNER_MATCHES_SCORE`	Winner agrees with headline score (Chelsea).
good	model_behavior	`WINNER_PROBABILITY_DIRECTION`	predicted_winner 'Chelsea' follows the published modal scoreline 2-1.
good	model_behavior	`LAMBDA_BOUNDS`	Lambdas in range (home 1.661, away 1.422).
good	provenance	`LAMBDA_FACTORS_PRESENT`	lambda_factors audit trail present.
good	model_behavior	`LAMBDA_CONSISTENCY`	Lambda identical across prediction / antagonist / factors.
good	model_behavior	`CALIBRATION_SCALE_BOUNDS`	Calibration scale 0.85 in range.
good	provenance	`CALIBRATION_RECORDED`	Calibration recorded with pre/post lambdas.
good	provenance	`XGBOOST_REASONING_PRESENT`	Match-level xgboost_reasoning present (XGBoost).
good	model_behavior	`LAMBDA_REASONING_CONSISTENCY`	Lambdas in xgboost_reasoning match final Poisson lambdas (1.661 / 1.422).
good	provenance	`FBREF_PRIORS_ACTIVE`	FBref team priors applied (blend weight 0.192, home E[lambda]=3.5, away E[lambda]=3.5).
good	provenance	`XGBOOST_PLAYER_REASONING`	All 22 starters carry full XGBoost / FBref reasoning.
good	integrity	`TEAM_GOALS_SUM`	Chelsea: player goals reconcile to team total (2).
good	integrity	`TEAM_GOALS_SUM`	Man Utd: player goals reconcile to team total (1).
good	structure	`POSSESSION_SUMS_100`	Possession sums to 100.0%.
good	integrity	`PLAYER_STAT_REALISM`	All 22 projected player lines pass realism checks.
good	structure	`EXACTLY_ONE_GOALKEEPER`	Chelsea: exactly one goalkeeper (Mike Penders).
good	integrity	`SHOT_MATH_INTEGRITY`	All 11 projected lines have consistent shot components.
good	integrity	`TEAM_SHOTS_CAP`	Chelsea: 10 projected shots inside the realistic envelope.
good	structure	`EXACTLY_ONE_GOALKEEPER`	Man Utd: exactly one goalkeeper (Senne Lammens).
good	integrity	`SHOT_MATH_INTEGRITY`	All 11 projected lines have consistent shot components.
good	integrity	`TEAM_SHOTS_CAP`	Man Utd: 14 projected shots inside the realistic envelope.
good	provenance	`STANDING_AVAILABLE`	League-standing context available for both sides.
good	provenance	`RANKING_PROVENANCE`	22/22 starters carry a ranking source.
good	provenance	`DATA_DEPTH`	21/22 starters have adequate recent history.
good	provenance	`PREGAME_DIRECTION_AGREES`	Pregame favorite agrees with the model winner (Chelsea).
good	provenance	`PREGAME_TOTAL_CONSISTENT`	Pregame total 3.08 ~ Poisson total 3.08.

Brentford vs Forest

20261031_NFO@BRE · Premier League

WARNINGS risk 10 pred 1-0 (Brentford)λ 1.69 / 1.09conf 0.75 warning 1 good 40

Problems (1)

Sev	Category	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
warning	model_behavior	`MOST_LIKELY_IS_MODE`	Headline score is not the modal scoreline (modal=1-1 (p=0.1151), shown=1-0 (p=0.1040)); the published exact score must be the grid mode, and the winning scenario belongs in the labelled most_likely_winning_score_home/away fields. Both lean Brentford.	1-0	1-1

Lambda evolution (audit trail)

Stage	Home λ	Away λ
Pre-competitive-floor	2.034	1.182
Pre-calibration	1.683	1.167
Final	1.692	1.089

competition_calibration_scale: 0.865competition_observed_total_goals: 2.781quality_gap_applied: Falsemismatch_score_pressure_applied: Falsecompetitive_underdog_floor_applied: Falsestage_discount: 1.0

Scoreline distribution

Top scorelines	P
1-1	11.5%
1-0	10.4%
2-1	9.7%
2-0	8.9%
0-1	6.7%

Outcome — home 51.4% · draw 24.3% · away 24.3%

Markets — O2.5 52.6% · BTTS 54.2%

Passed checks (40)

Sev	Category	Rule	Message
good	integrity	`SCHEMA_KEYS_PRESENT`	All required sections present.
good	structure	`LINEUP_ELEVEN`	Brentford: 11 starters.
good	structure	`FORMATION_VALID`	Brentford: formation 4-2-3-1 valid.
good	structure	`LINEUP_ELEVEN`	Forest: 11 starters.
good	structure	`FORMATION_VALID`	Forest: formation 3-4-2-1 valid.
good	probability	`OUTCOME_SUMS_ONE`	outcome sums to 1.0000.
good	probability	`MARKETS_COMPLEMENTARY`	Over/Under and BTTS pairs each sum to 1.
good	probability	`SCORELINE_PROBS_NONNEG`	All scoreline probabilities within [0,1].
good	probability	`GRID_SUMS_ONE`	scoreline grid sums to 0.9963.
good	model_behavior	`GRID_REPRODUCIBLE`	Grid reproducible from lambdas (max cell diff 0.0009).
good	probability	`MLS_PROBABILITY_MATCHES`	Headline probability matches the grid.
good	model_behavior	`OUTCOME_MATCHES_GRID`	Outcome split matches the grid (max diff 0.0023).
good	model_behavior	`MARKETS_MATCH_GRID`	Markets match the grid (max diff 0.0038).
good	integrity	`WINNER_IS_VALID_TEAM`	predicted_winner 'Brentford' is a participating side.
good	model_behavior	`WINNER_MATCHES_SCORE`	Winner agrees with headline score (Brentford).
good	model_behavior	`WINNER_PROBABILITY_DIRECTION`	predicted_winner 'Brentford' follows the published modal scoreline 1-0.
good	model_behavior	`LAMBDA_BOUNDS`	Lambdas in range (home 1.692, away 1.089).
good	provenance	`LAMBDA_FACTORS_PRESENT`	lambda_factors audit trail present.
good	model_behavior	`LAMBDA_CONSISTENCY`	Lambda identical across prediction / antagonist / factors.
good	model_behavior	`CALIBRATION_SCALE_BOUNDS`	Calibration scale 0.865 in range.
good	provenance	`CALIBRATION_RECORDED`	Calibration recorded with pre/post lambdas.
good	provenance	`XGBOOST_REASONING_PRESENT`	Match-level xgboost_reasoning present (XGBoost).
good	model_behavior	`LAMBDA_REASONING_CONSISTENCY`	Lambdas in xgboost_reasoning match final Poisson lambdas (1.692 / 1.089).
good	provenance	`FBREF_PRIORS_ACTIVE`	FBref team priors applied (blend weight 0.192, home E[lambda]=1.379, away E[lambda]=1.379).
good	provenance	`XGBOOST_PLAYER_REASONING`	All 22 starters carry full XGBoost / FBref reasoning.
good	integrity	`TEAM_GOALS_SUM`	Brentford: player goals reconcile to team total (1).
good	integrity	`TEAM_GOALS_SUM`	Forest: player goals reconcile to team total (0).
good	structure	`POSSESSION_SUMS_100`	Possession sums to 100.0%.
good	integrity	`PLAYER_STAT_REALISM`	All 22 projected player lines pass realism checks.
good	structure	`EXACTLY_ONE_GOALKEEPER`	Brentford: exactly one goalkeeper (Caoimhin Kelleher).
good	integrity	`SHOT_MATH_INTEGRITY`	All 11 projected lines have consistent shot components.
good	integrity	`TEAM_SHOTS_CAP`	Brentford: 16 projected shots inside the realistic envelope.
good	structure	`EXACTLY_ONE_GOALKEEPER`	Forest: exactly one goalkeeper (Matz Sels).
good	integrity	`SHOT_MATH_INTEGRITY`	All 11 projected lines have consistent shot components.
good	integrity	`TEAM_SHOTS_CAP`	Forest: 16 projected shots inside the realistic envelope.
good	provenance	`STANDING_AVAILABLE`	League-standing context available for both sides.
good	provenance	`RANKING_PROVENANCE`	22/22 starters carry a ranking source.
good	provenance	`DATA_DEPTH`	22/22 starters have adequate recent history.
good	provenance	`PREGAME_DIRECTION_AGREES`	Pregame favorite agrees with the model winner (Brentford).
good	provenance	`PREGAME_TOTAL_CONSISTENT`	Pregame total 2.78 ~ Poisson total 2.78.

Coventry vs Sunderland

20261031_SUN@COC · Premier League

WARNINGS risk 10 pred 1-1 (Draw)λ 1.39 / 1.39conf 0.69 warning 1 good 38

Problems (1)

Sev	Category	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
warning	provenance	`FBREF_PRIORS_ACTIVE`	FBref dataset files not found; team priors inactive.

Lambda evolution (audit trail)

Stage	Home λ	Away λ
Pre-competitive-floor	1.226	1.318
Pre-calibration	1.200	1.347
Final	1.389	1.392

competition_calibration_scale: 1.093competition_observed_total_goals: 2.781quality_gap_applied: Truemismatch_score_pressure_applied: Falsecompetitive_underdog_floor_applied: Falsestage_discount: 1.0

Scoreline distribution

Top scorelines	P
1-1	12.1%
0-1	8.5%
1-0	8.5%
1-2	8.3%
2-1	8.3%

Outcome — home 37.1% · draw 25.6% · away 37.3%

Markets — O2.5 52.6% · BTTS 56.5%

Passed checks (38)

Sev	Category	Rule	Message
good	integrity	`SCHEMA_KEYS_PRESENT`	All required sections present.
good	structure	`LINEUP_ELEVEN`	Coventry: 11 starters.
good	structure	`FORMATION_VALID`	Coventry: formation 4-2-3-1 valid.
good	structure	`LINEUP_ELEVEN`	Sunderland: 11 starters.
good	structure	`FORMATION_VALID`	Sunderland: formation 4-2-3-1 valid.
good	probability	`OUTCOME_SUMS_ONE`	outcome sums to 1.0000.
good	probability	`MARKETS_COMPLEMENTARY`	Over/Under and BTTS pairs each sum to 1.
good	probability	`SCORELINE_PROBS_NONNEG`	All scoreline probabilities within [0,1].
good	probability	`GRID_SUMS_ONE`	scoreline grid sums to 0.9970.
good	model_behavior	`GRID_REPRODUCIBLE`	Grid reproducible from lambdas (max cell diff 0.0012).
good	model_behavior	`MOST_LIKELY_IS_MODE`	Headline score 1-1 is the modal scoreline.
good	probability	`MLS_PROBABILITY_MATCHES`	Headline probability matches the grid.
good	model_behavior	`OUTCOME_MATCHES_GRID`	Outcome split matches the grid (max diff 0.0014).
good	model_behavior	`MARKETS_MATCH_GRID`	Markets match the grid (max diff 0.0030).
good	integrity	`WINNER_IS_VALID_TEAM`	predicted_winner 'Draw' is a participating side.
good	model_behavior	`WINNER_PROBABILITY_DIRECTION`	predicted_winner 'Draw' follows the published modal scoreline 1-1. It differs from the calibrated 1X2 favorite 'Sunderland', which is published separately and does not decide the call.
good	model_behavior	`LAMBDA_BOUNDS`	Lambdas in range (home 1.389, away 1.392).
good	provenance	`LAMBDA_FACTORS_PRESENT`	lambda_factors audit trail present.
good	model_behavior	`LAMBDA_CONSISTENCY`	Lambda identical across prediction / antagonist / factors.
good	model_behavior	`CALIBRATION_SCALE_BOUNDS`	Calibration scale 1.093 in range.
good	provenance	`CALIBRATION_RECORDED`	Calibration recorded with pre/post lambdas.
good	provenance	`XGBOOST_REASONING_PRESENT`	Match-level xgboost_reasoning present (XGBoost).
good	model_behavior	`LAMBDA_REASONING_CONSISTENCY`	Lambdas in xgboost_reasoning match final Poisson lambdas (1.389 / 1.392).
good	provenance	`XGBOOST_PLAYER_REASONING`	All 22 starters carry full XGBoost / FBref reasoning.
good	integrity	`TEAM_GOALS_SUM`	Coventry: player goals reconcile to team total (1).
good	integrity	`TEAM_GOALS_SUM`	Sunderland: player goals reconcile to team total (1).
good	structure	`POSSESSION_SUMS_100`	Possession sums to 100.0%.
good	integrity	`PLAYER_STAT_REALISM`	All 22 projected player lines pass realism checks.
good	structure	`EXACTLY_ONE_GOALKEEPER`	Coventry: exactly one goalkeeper (Carl Rushworth).
good	integrity	`SHOT_MATH_INTEGRITY`	All 11 projected lines have consistent shot components.
good	integrity	`TEAM_SHOTS_CAP`	Coventry: 10 projected shots inside the realistic envelope.
good	structure	`EXACTLY_ONE_GOALKEEPER`	Sunderland: exactly one goalkeeper (Robin Roefs).
good	integrity	`SHOT_MATH_INTEGRITY`	All 11 projected lines have consistent shot components.
good	integrity	`TEAM_SHOTS_CAP`	Sunderland: 17 projected shots inside the realistic envelope.
good	provenance	`STANDING_AVAILABLE`	League-standing context available for both sides.
good	provenance	`RANKING_PROVENANCE`	22/22 starters carry a ranking source.
good	provenance	`DATA_DEPTH`	22/22 starters have adequate recent history.
good	provenance	`PREGAME_TOTAL_CONSISTENT`	Pregame total 2.78 ~ Poisson total 2.78.

Barcelona vs Alavés

20261031_ALA@BAR · LaLiga

CLEAN risk 0 pred 3-1 (Barcelona)λ 3.86 / 1.29conf 0.83 good 41

Problems (0)

none

Lambda evolution (audit trail)

Stage	Home λ	Away λ
Pre-mismatch	5.096	1.327
Pre-calibration	4.442	1.429
Final	3.863	1.288

competition_calibration_scale: 0.85competition_observed_total_goals: 2.984quality_gap_applied: Truemismatch_score_pressure_applied: Truecompetitive_underdog_floor_applied: Falsestage_discount: 1.0

Scoreline distribution

Top scorelines	P
3-1	7.2%
4-1	7.0%
2-1	5.6%
3-0	5.6%
4-0	5.4%

Outcome — home 82.3% · draw 9.9% · away 7.8%

Markets — O2.5 88.7% · BTTS 70.9%

Passed checks (41)

Sev	Category	Rule	Message
good	integrity	`SCHEMA_KEYS_PRESENT`	All required sections present.
good	structure	`LINEUP_ELEVEN`	Barcelona: 11 starters.
good	structure	`FORMATION_VALID`	Barcelona: formation 4-3-3 valid.
good	structure	`LINEUP_ELEVEN`	Alavés: 11 starters.
good	structure	`FORMATION_VALID`	Alavés: formation 4-4-2 valid.
good	probability	`OUTCOME_SUMS_ONE`	outcome sums to 0.9999.
good	probability	`MARKETS_COMPLEMENTARY`	Over/Under and BTTS pairs each sum to 1.
good	probability	`SCORELINE_PROBS_NONNEG`	All scoreline probabilities within [0,1].
good	probability	`GRID_SUMS_ONE`	scoreline grid sums to 0.9968.
good	model_behavior	`GRID_REPRODUCIBLE`	Grid reproducible from lambdas (max cell diff 0.0005).
good	model_behavior	`MOST_LIKELY_IS_MODE`	Headline score 3-1 is the modal scoreline.
good	probability	`MLS_PROBABILITY_MATCHES`	Headline probability matches the grid.
good	model_behavior	`OUTCOME_MATCHES_GRID`	Outcome split matches the grid (max diff 0.0018).
good	model_behavior	`MARKETS_MATCH_GRID`	Markets match the grid (max diff 0.0031).
good	integrity	`WINNER_IS_VALID_TEAM`	predicted_winner 'Barcelona' is a participating side.
good	model_behavior	`WINNER_MATCHES_SCORE`	Winner agrees with headline score (Barcelona).
good	model_behavior	`WINNER_PROBABILITY_DIRECTION`	predicted_winner 'Barcelona' follows the published modal scoreline 3-1.
good	model_behavior	`LAMBDA_BOUNDS`	Lambdas in range (home 3.863, away 1.288).
good	provenance	`LAMBDA_FACTORS_PRESENT`	lambda_factors audit trail present.
good	model_behavior	`LAMBDA_CONSISTENCY`	Lambda identical across prediction / antagonist / factors.
good	model_behavior	`CALIBRATION_SCALE_BOUNDS`	Calibration scale 0.85 in range.
good	provenance	`CALIBRATION_RECORDED`	Calibration recorded with pre/post lambdas.
good	provenance	`XGBOOST_REASONING_PRESENT`	Match-level xgboost_reasoning present (XGBoost).
good	model_behavior	`LAMBDA_REASONING_CONSISTENCY`	Lambdas in xgboost_reasoning match final Poisson lambdas (3.863 / 1.288).
good	provenance	`FBREF_PRIORS_ACTIVE`	FBref team priors applied (blend weight 0.228, home E[lambda]=3.5, away E[lambda]=3.5).
good	provenance	`XGBOOST_PLAYER_REASONING`	All 22 starters carry full XGBoost / FBref reasoning.
good	integrity	`TEAM_GOALS_SUM`	Barcelona: player goals reconcile to team total (3).
good	integrity	`TEAM_GOALS_SUM`	Alavés: player goals reconcile to team total (1).
good	structure	`POSSESSION_SUMS_100`	Possession sums to 100.0%.
good	integrity	`PLAYER_STAT_REALISM`	All 22 projected player lines pass realism checks.
good	structure	`EXACTLY_ONE_GOALKEEPER`	Barcelona: exactly one goalkeeper (Joan García).
good	integrity	`SHOT_MATH_INTEGRITY`	All 11 projected lines have consistent shot components.
good	integrity	`TEAM_SHOTS_CAP`	Barcelona: 26 projected shots inside the realistic envelope.
good	structure	`EXACTLY_ONE_GOALKEEPER`	Alavés: exactly one goalkeeper (Antonio Sivera).
good	integrity	`SHOT_MATH_INTEGRITY`	All 11 projected lines have consistent shot components.
good	integrity	`TEAM_SHOTS_CAP`	Alavés: 13 projected shots inside the realistic envelope.
good	provenance	`STANDING_AVAILABLE`	League-standing context available for both sides.
good	provenance	`RANKING_PROVENANCE`	22/22 starters carry a ranking source.
good	provenance	`DATA_DEPTH`	20/22 starters have adequate recent history.
good	provenance	`PREGAME_DIRECTION_AGREES`	Pregame favorite agrees with the model winner (Barcelona).
good	provenance	`PREGAME_TOTAL_CONSISTENT`	Pregame total 5.15 ~ Poisson total 5.15.

Levante vs Atlético Madrid

20261031_ATM@LEV · LaLiga

CLEAN risk 0 pred 1-2 (Atlético Madrid)λ 1.19 / 2.27conf 0.77 good 41

Problems (0)

none

Lambda evolution (audit trail)

Stage	Home λ	Away λ
Pre-mismatch	1.376	2.691
Pre-calibration	1.396	2.653
Final	1.191	2.266

competition_calibration_scale: 0.85competition_observed_total_goals: 2.984quality_gap_applied: Truemismatch_score_pressure_applied: Truecompetitive_underdog_floor_applied: Falsestage_discount: 1.0

Scoreline distribution

Top scorelines	P
1-2	9.6%
1-1	8.6%
0-2	8.1%
1-3	7.3%
0-1	7.1%

Outcome — home 18.9% · draw 19.5% · away 61.5%

Markets — O2.5 67.1% · BTTS 62.4%

Passed checks (41)

Sev	Category	Rule	Message
good	integrity	`SCHEMA_KEYS_PRESENT`	All required sections present.
good	structure	`LINEUP_ELEVEN`	Levante: 11 starters.
good	structure	`FORMATION_VALID`	Levante: formation 4-3-3 valid.
good	structure	`LINEUP_ELEVEN`	Atlético Madrid: 11 starters.
good	structure	`FORMATION_VALID`	Atlético Madrid: formation 4-2-3-1 valid.
good	probability	`OUTCOME_SUMS_ONE`	outcome sums to 0.9999.
good	probability	`MARKETS_COMPLEMENTARY`	Over/Under and BTTS pairs each sum to 1.
good	probability	`SCORELINE_PROBS_NONNEG`	All scoreline probabilities within [0,1].
good	probability	`GRID_SUMS_ONE`	scoreline grid sums to 0.9963.
good	model_behavior	`GRID_REPRODUCIBLE`	Grid reproducible from lambdas (max cell diff 0.0005).
good	model_behavior	`MOST_LIKELY_IS_MODE`	Headline score 1-2 is the modal scoreline.
good	probability	`MLS_PROBABILITY_MATCHES`	Headline probability matches the grid.
good	model_behavior	`OUTCOME_MATCHES_GRID`	Outcome split matches the grid (max diff 0.0019).
good	model_behavior	`MARKETS_MATCH_GRID`	Markets match the grid (max diff 0.0038).
good	integrity	`WINNER_IS_VALID_TEAM`	predicted_winner 'Atlético Madrid' is a participating side.
good	model_behavior	`WINNER_MATCHES_SCORE`	Winner agrees with headline score (Atlético Madrid).
good	model_behavior	`WINNER_PROBABILITY_DIRECTION`	predicted_winner 'Atlético Madrid' follows the published modal scoreline 1-2.
good	model_behavior	`LAMBDA_BOUNDS`	Lambdas in range (home 1.191, away 2.266).
good	provenance	`LAMBDA_FACTORS_PRESENT`	lambda_factors audit trail present.
good	model_behavior	`LAMBDA_CONSISTENCY`	Lambda identical across prediction / antagonist / factors.
good	model_behavior	`CALIBRATION_SCALE_BOUNDS`	Calibration scale 0.85 in range.
good	provenance	`CALIBRATION_RECORDED`	Calibration recorded with pre/post lambdas.
good	provenance	`XGBOOST_REASONING_PRESENT`	Match-level xgboost_reasoning present (XGBoost).
good	model_behavior	`LAMBDA_REASONING_CONSISTENCY`	Lambdas in xgboost_reasoning match final Poisson lambdas (1.191 / 2.266).
good	provenance	`FBREF_PRIORS_ACTIVE`	FBref team priors applied (blend weight 0.228, home E[lambda]=2.877, away E[lambda]=2.886).
good	provenance	`XGBOOST_PLAYER_REASONING`	All 22 starters carry full XGBoost / FBref reasoning.
good	integrity	`TEAM_GOALS_SUM`	Levante: player goals reconcile to team total (1).
good	integrity	`TEAM_GOALS_SUM`	Atlético Madrid: player goals reconcile to team total (2).
good	structure	`POSSESSION_SUMS_100`	Possession sums to 100.0%.
good	integrity	`PLAYER_STAT_REALISM`	All 22 projected player lines pass realism checks.
good	structure	`EXACTLY_ONE_GOALKEEPER`	Levante: exactly one goalkeeper (Mathew Ryan).
good	integrity	`SHOT_MATH_INTEGRITY`	All 11 projected lines have consistent shot components.
good	integrity	`TEAM_SHOTS_CAP`	Levante: 10 projected shots inside the realistic envelope.
good	structure	`EXACTLY_ONE_GOALKEEPER`	Atlético Madrid: exactly one goalkeeper (Jan Oblak).
good	integrity	`SHOT_MATH_INTEGRITY`	All 11 projected lines have consistent shot components.
good	integrity	`TEAM_SHOTS_CAP`	Atlético Madrid: 20 projected shots inside the realistic envelope.
good	provenance	`STANDING_AVAILABLE`	League-standing context available for both sides.
good	provenance	`RANKING_PROVENANCE`	22/22 starters carry a ranking source.
good	provenance	`DATA_DEPTH`	22/22 starters have adequate recent history.
good	provenance	`PREGAME_DIRECTION_AGREES`	Pregame favorite agrees with the model winner (Atlético Madrid).
good	provenance	`PREGAME_TOTAL_CONSISTENT`	Pregame total 3.46 ~ Poisson total 3.46.

Man City vs Brighton

20261031_BHA@MCI · Premier League

CLEAN risk 0 pred 2-1 (Man City)λ 2.62 / 1.15conf 0.79 good 41

Problems (0)

none

Lambda evolution (audit trail)

Stage	Home λ	Away λ
Pre-mismatch	3.087	1.347
Pre-calibration	2.747	1.419
Final	2.615	1.154

competition_calibration_scale: 0.85competition_observed_total_goals: 2.781quality_gap_applied: Truemismatch_score_pressure_applied: Truecompetitive_underdog_floor_applied: Falsestage_discount: 1.0

Scoreline distribution

Top scorelines	P
2-1	9.1%
3-1	7.9%
2-0	7.9%
1-1	7.0%
3-0	6.9%

Outcome — home 68.6% · draw 16.7% · away 14.6%

Markets — O2.5 72.6% · BTTS 63.5%

Passed checks (41)

Sev	Category	Rule	Message
good	integrity	`SCHEMA_KEYS_PRESENT`	All required sections present.
good	structure	`LINEUP_ELEVEN`	Man City: 11 starters.
good	structure	`FORMATION_VALID`	Man City: formation 4-2-3-1 valid.
good	structure	`LINEUP_ELEVEN`	Brighton: 11 starters.
good	structure	`FORMATION_VALID`	Brighton: formation 4-2-3-1 valid.
good	probability	`OUTCOME_SUMS_ONE`	outcome sums to 1.0000.
good	probability	`MARKETS_COMPLEMENTARY`	Over/Under and BTTS pairs each sum to 1.
good	probability	`SCORELINE_PROBS_NONNEG`	All scoreline probabilities within [0,1].
good	probability	`GRID_SUMS_ONE`	scoreline grid sums to 0.9957.
good	model_behavior	`GRID_REPRODUCIBLE`	Grid reproducible from lambdas (max cell diff 0.0004).
good	model_behavior	`MOST_LIKELY_IS_MODE`	Headline score 2-1 is the modal scoreline.
good	probability	`MLS_PROBABILITY_MATCHES`	Headline probability matches the grid.
good	model_behavior	`OUTCOME_MATCHES_GRID`	Outcome split matches the grid (max diff 0.0023).
good	model_behavior	`MARKETS_MATCH_GRID`	Markets match the grid (max diff 0.0043).
good	integrity	`WINNER_IS_VALID_TEAM`	predicted_winner 'Man City' is a participating side.
good	model_behavior	`WINNER_MATCHES_SCORE`	Winner agrees with headline score (Man City).
good	model_behavior	`WINNER_PROBABILITY_DIRECTION`	predicted_winner 'Man City' follows the published modal scoreline 2-1.
good	model_behavior	`LAMBDA_BOUNDS`	Lambdas in range (home 2.615, away 1.154).
good	provenance	`LAMBDA_FACTORS_PRESENT`	lambda_factors audit trail present.
good	model_behavior	`LAMBDA_CONSISTENCY`	Lambda identical across prediction / antagonist / factors.
good	model_behavior	`CALIBRATION_SCALE_BOUNDS`	Calibration scale 0.85 in range.
good	provenance	`CALIBRATION_RECORDED`	Calibration recorded with pre/post lambdas.
good	provenance	`XGBOOST_REASONING_PRESENT`	Match-level xgboost_reasoning present (XGBoost).
good	model_behavior	`LAMBDA_REASONING_CONSISTENCY`	Lambdas in xgboost_reasoning match final Poisson lambdas (2.615 / 1.154).
good	provenance	`FBREF_PRIORS_ACTIVE`	FBref team priors applied (blend weight 0.192, home E[lambda]=3.5, away E[lambda]=3.5).
good	provenance	`XGBOOST_PLAYER_REASONING`	All 22 starters carry full XGBoost / FBref reasoning.
good	integrity	`TEAM_GOALS_SUM`	Man City: player goals reconcile to team total (2).
good	integrity	`TEAM_GOALS_SUM`	Brighton: player goals reconcile to team total (1).
good	structure	`POSSESSION_SUMS_100`	Possession sums to 100.0%.
good	integrity	`PLAYER_STAT_REALISM`	All 22 projected player lines pass realism checks.
good	structure	`EXACTLY_ONE_GOALKEEPER`	Man City: exactly one goalkeeper (Gianluigi Donnarumma).
good	integrity	`SHOT_MATH_INTEGRITY`	All 11 projected lines have consistent shot components.
good	integrity	`TEAM_SHOTS_CAP`	Man City: 21 projected shots inside the realistic envelope.
good	structure	`EXACTLY_ONE_GOALKEEPER`	Brighton: exactly one goalkeeper (Bart Verbruggen).
good	integrity	`SHOT_MATH_INTEGRITY`	All 11 projected lines have consistent shot components.
good	integrity	`TEAM_SHOTS_CAP`	Brighton: 15 projected shots inside the realistic envelope.
good	provenance	`STANDING_AVAILABLE`	League-standing context available for both sides.
good	provenance	`RANKING_PROVENANCE`	22/22 starters carry a ranking source.
good	provenance	`DATA_DEPTH`	22/22 starters have adequate recent history.
good	provenance	`PREGAME_DIRECTION_AGREES`	Pregame favorite agrees with the model winner (Man City).
good	provenance	`PREGAME_TOTAL_CONSISTENT`	Pregame total 3.77 ~ Poisson total 3.77.

Hull vs Ipswich

20261031_IPS@HUL · Premier League

CLEAN risk 0 pred 1-1 (Draw)λ 1.41 / 1.37conf 0.7 good 39

Problems (0)

none

Lambda evolution (audit trail)

Stage	Home λ	Away λ
Pre-competitive-floor	1.398	1.442
Pre-calibration	1.398	1.442
Final	1.409	1.372

competition_calibration_scale: 0.979competition_observed_total_goals: 2.781quality_gap_applied: Truemismatch_score_pressure_applied: Falsecompetitive_underdog_floor_applied: Falsestage_discount: 1.0

Scoreline distribution

Top scorelines	P
1-1	12.1%
1-0	8.6%
2-1	8.4%
0-1	8.4%
1-2	8.2%

Outcome — home 38.0% · draw 25.6% · away 36.4%

Markets — O2.5 52.6% · BTTS 56.5%

Passed checks (39)

Sev	Category	Rule	Message
good	integrity	`SCHEMA_KEYS_PRESENT`	All required sections present.
good	structure	`LINEUP_ELEVEN`	Hull: 11 starters.
good	structure	`FORMATION_VALID`	Hull: formation 5-4-1 valid.
good	structure	`LINEUP_ELEVEN`	Ipswich: 11 starters.
good	structure	`FORMATION_VALID`	Ipswich: formation 4-2-3-1 valid.
good	probability	`OUTCOME_SUMS_ONE`	outcome sums to 1.0000.
good	probability	`MARKETS_COMPLEMENTARY`	Over/Under and BTTS pairs each sum to 1.
good	probability	`SCORELINE_PROBS_NONNEG`	All scoreline probabilities within [0,1].
good	probability	`GRID_SUMS_ONE`	scoreline grid sums to 0.9971.
good	model_behavior	`GRID_REPRODUCIBLE`	Grid reproducible from lambdas (max cell diff 0.0012).
good	model_behavior	`MOST_LIKELY_IS_MODE`	Headline score 1-1 is the modal scoreline.
good	probability	`MLS_PROBABILITY_MATCHES`	Headline probability matches the grid.
good	model_behavior	`OUTCOME_MATCHES_GRID`	Outcome split matches the grid (max diff 0.0016).
good	model_behavior	`MARKETS_MATCH_GRID`	Markets match the grid (max diff 0.0028).
good	integrity	`WINNER_IS_VALID_TEAM`	predicted_winner 'Draw' is a participating side.
good	model_behavior	`WINNER_PROBABILITY_DIRECTION`	predicted_winner 'Draw' follows the published modal scoreline 1-1. It differs from the calibrated 1X2 favorite 'Hull', which is published separately and does not decide the call.
good	model_behavior	`LAMBDA_BOUNDS`	Lambdas in range (home 1.409, away 1.372).
good	provenance	`LAMBDA_FACTORS_PRESENT`	lambda_factors audit trail present.
good	model_behavior	`LAMBDA_CONSISTENCY`	Lambda identical across prediction / antagonist / factors.
good	model_behavior	`CALIBRATION_SCALE_BOUNDS`	Calibration scale 0.979 in range.
good	provenance	`CALIBRATION_RECORDED`	Calibration recorded with pre/post lambdas.
good	provenance	`XGBOOST_REASONING_PRESENT`	Match-level xgboost_reasoning present (XGBoost).
good	model_behavior	`LAMBDA_REASONING_CONSISTENCY`	Lambdas in xgboost_reasoning match final Poisson lambdas (1.409 / 1.372).
good	provenance	`FBREF_PRIORS_ACTIVE`	FBref team priors applied (blend weight 0.192, home E[lambda]=2.069, away E[lambda]=2.069).
good	provenance	`XGBOOST_PLAYER_REASONING`	All 22 starters carry full XGBoost / FBref reasoning.
good	integrity	`TEAM_GOALS_SUM`	Hull: player goals reconcile to team total (1).
good	integrity	`TEAM_GOALS_SUM`	Ipswich: player goals reconcile to team total (1).
good	structure	`POSSESSION_SUMS_100`	Possession sums to 100.0%.
good	integrity	`PLAYER_STAT_REALISM`	All 22 projected player lines pass realism checks.
good	structure	`EXACTLY_ONE_GOALKEEPER`	Hull: exactly one goalkeeper (Konstantinos Tzolakis).
good	integrity	`SHOT_MATH_INTEGRITY`	All 11 projected lines have consistent shot components.
good	integrity	`TEAM_SHOTS_CAP`	Hull: 11 projected shots inside the realistic envelope.
good	structure	`EXACTLY_ONE_GOALKEEPER`	Ipswich: exactly one goalkeeper (Christian Walton).
good	integrity	`SHOT_MATH_INTEGRITY`	All 11 projected lines have consistent shot components.
good	integrity	`TEAM_SHOTS_CAP`	Ipswich: 14 projected shots inside the realistic envelope.
good	provenance	`STANDING_AVAILABLE`	League-standing context available for both sides.
good	provenance	`RANKING_PROVENANCE`	22/22 starters carry a ranking source.
good	provenance	`DATA_DEPTH`	22/22 starters have adequate recent history.
good	provenance	`PREGAME_TOTAL_CONSISTENT`	Pregame total 2.78 ~ Poisson total 2.78.

Real Betis vs Málaga

20261031_MCF@BET · LaLiga

CLEAN risk 0 pred 2-0 (Real Betis)λ 2.15 / 0.83conf 0.79 good 41

Problems (0)

none

Lambda evolution (audit trail)

Stage	Home λ	Away λ
Pre-mismatch	1.841	0.708
Pre-calibration	1.815	0.718
Final	2.153	0.831

competition_calibration_scale: 1.171competition_observed_total_goals: 2.984quality_gap_applied: Truemismatch_score_pressure_applied: Truecompetitive_underdog_floor_applied: Falsestage_discount: 1.0

Scoreline distribution

Top scorelines	P
2-0	11.7%
1-0	10.8%
2-1	9.7%
1-1	9.1%
3-0	8.4%

Outcome — home 67.7% · draw 19.1% · away 13.2%

Markets — O2.5 57.3% · BTTS 49.9%

Passed checks (41)

Sev	Category	Rule	Message
good	integrity	`SCHEMA_KEYS_PRESENT`	All required sections present.
good	structure	`LINEUP_ELEVEN`	Real Betis: 11 starters.
good	structure	`FORMATION_VALID`	Real Betis: formation 4-2-3-1 valid.
good	structure	`LINEUP_ELEVEN`	Málaga: 11 starters.
good	structure	`FORMATION_VALID`	Málaga: formation 3-4-2-1 valid.
good	probability	`OUTCOME_SUMS_ONE`	outcome sums to 0.9999.
good	probability	`MARKETS_COMPLEMENTARY`	Over/Under and BTTS pairs each sum to 1.
good	probability	`SCORELINE_PROBS_NONNEG`	All scoreline probabilities within [0,1].
good	probability	`GRID_SUMS_ONE`	scoreline grid sums to 0.9963.
good	model_behavior	`GRID_REPRODUCIBLE`	Grid reproducible from lambdas (max cell diff 0.0004).
good	model_behavior	`MOST_LIKELY_IS_MODE`	Headline score 2-0 is the modal scoreline.
good	probability	`MLS_PROBABILITY_MATCHES`	Headline probability matches the grid.
good	model_behavior	`OUTCOME_MATCHES_GRID`	Outcome split matches the grid (max diff 0.0019).
good	model_behavior	`MARKETS_MATCH_GRID`	Markets match the grid (max diff 0.0037).
good	integrity	`WINNER_IS_VALID_TEAM`	predicted_winner 'Real Betis' is a participating side.
good	model_behavior	`WINNER_MATCHES_SCORE`	Winner agrees with headline score (Real Betis).
good	model_behavior	`WINNER_PROBABILITY_DIRECTION`	predicted_winner 'Real Betis' follows the published modal scoreline 2-0.
good	model_behavior	`LAMBDA_BOUNDS`	Lambdas in range (home 2.153, away 0.831).
good	provenance	`LAMBDA_FACTORS_PRESENT`	lambda_factors audit trail present.
good	model_behavior	`LAMBDA_CONSISTENCY`	Lambda identical across prediction / antagonist / factors.
good	model_behavior	`CALIBRATION_SCALE_BOUNDS`	Calibration scale 1.171 in range.
good	provenance	`CALIBRATION_RECORDED`	Calibration recorded with pre/post lambdas.
good	provenance	`XGBOOST_REASONING_PRESENT`	Match-level xgboost_reasoning present (XGBoost).
good	model_behavior	`LAMBDA_REASONING_CONSISTENCY`	Lambdas in xgboost_reasoning match final Poisson lambdas (2.153 / 0.831).
good	provenance	`FBREF_PRIORS_ACTIVE`	FBref team priors applied (blend weight 0.228, home E[lambda]=0.326, away E[lambda]=0.328).
good	provenance	`XGBOOST_PLAYER_REASONING`	All 22 starters carry full XGBoost / FBref reasoning.
good	integrity	`TEAM_GOALS_SUM`	Real Betis: player goals reconcile to team total (2).
good	integrity	`TEAM_GOALS_SUM`	Málaga: player goals reconcile to team total (0).
good	structure	`POSSESSION_SUMS_100`	Possession sums to 100.0%.
good	integrity	`PLAYER_STAT_REALISM`	All 22 projected player lines pass realism checks.
good	structure	`EXACTLY_ONE_GOALKEEPER`	Real Betis: exactly one goalkeeper (Álvaro Valles).
good	integrity	`SHOT_MATH_INTEGRITY`	All 11 projected lines have consistent shot components.
good	integrity	`TEAM_SHOTS_CAP`	Real Betis: 15 projected shots inside the realistic envelope.
good	structure	`EXACTLY_ONE_GOALKEEPER`	Málaga: exactly one goalkeeper (Alfonso Herrero).
good	integrity	`SHOT_MATH_INTEGRITY`	All 11 projected lines have consistent shot components.
good	integrity	`TEAM_SHOTS_CAP`	Málaga: 9 projected shots inside the realistic envelope.
good	provenance	`STANDING_AVAILABLE`	League-standing context available for both sides.
good	provenance	`RANKING_PROVENANCE`	22/22 starters carry a ranking source.
good	provenance	`DATA_DEPTH`	22/22 starters have adequate recent history.
good	provenance	`PREGAME_DIRECTION_AGREES`	Pregame favorite agrees with the model winner (Real Betis).
good	provenance	`PREGAME_TOTAL_CONSISTENT`	Pregame total 2.98 ~ Poisson total 2.98.

Rule catalogue

Rule	Description	Triggered
`SCHEMA_KEYS_PRESENT`	All required top-level sections exist in the artifact.	ok
`LINEUP_ELEVEN`	Each side fields exactly 11 starters.	ok
`FORMATION_VALID`	Formation string parses and its outfield lines sum to 10.	ok
`POSSESSION_SUMS_100`	Estimated possession of both teams sums to ~100%.	ok
`TEAM_GOALS_SUM`	Players' projected integer goals sum to the team's headline score.	ok
`TEAM_TOTALS_SCORE_MATCH`	team_totals.projected_goals equals the headline score component.	ok
`TEAM_EG_LAMBDA_MATCH`	team_totals.expected_goals matches the team's Poisson lambda.	ok
`PLAYER_STAT_REALISM`	Projected player lines are internally consistent (xG<=shots, accurate<=total passes, minutes/rating in range).	ok
`EXACTLY_ONE_GOALKEEPER`	Each starting XI fields exactly one goalkeeper.	ok
`SHOT_MATH_INTEGRITY`	Shot components are physically consistent (on target <= total, on+off <= total; blocked shots cannot be negative).	ok
`PLAYER_MINUTES_LEAGUE_CAP`	No player projects more minutes than the competition clock allows (90 + stoppage, or extra time in cups).	ok
`TEAM_SHOTS_CAP`	Team projected shots stay inside the realistic historical envelope (~35).	ok
`OUTCOME_SUMS_ONE`	home_win + draw + away_win sums to 1.	ok
`MARKETS_COMPLEMENTARY`	Over/Under and BTTS pairs each sum to 1.	ok
`GRID_SUMS_ONE`	The scoreline probability grid sums to ~1.	ok
`SCORELINE_PROBS_NONNEG`	Every scoreline probability is a valid [0,1] value.	ok
`GRID_REPRODUCIBLE`	The reported scoreline grid is reproducible from the lambdas.	ok
`MOST_LIKELY_IS_MODE`	The headline most-likely score is the distribution's modal scoreline.	6 problems
`MLS_PROBABILITY_MATCHES`	most_likely_score_probability equals the grid value of that score.	ok
`OUTCOME_MATCHES_GRID`	The reported win/draw/loss split is derivable from the grid.	ok
`MARKETS_MATCH_GRID`	The reported Over/Under and BTTS are derivable from the grid.	ok
`WINNER_MATCHES_SCORE`	predicted_winner agrees with the headline score direction.	ok
`WINNER_PROBABILITY_DIRECTION`	predicted_winner derives from the published modal scoreline; diverging from the 1X2 favorite is expected.	ok
`WINNER_IS_VALID_TEAM`	predicted_winner names a participating team (or Draw).	ok
`MODAL_OUTCOME_IS_DRAW`	Draw is the single largest outcome bucket while a team is named.	ok
`LAMBDA_BOUNDS`	Both lambdas fall inside the engine's [0.55, 5.00] envelope.	ok
`LAMBDA_CONSISTENCY`	The lambda is identical across prediction / antagonist / lambda_factors.	ok
`LAMBDA_FACTORS_PRESENT`	The lambda_factors decomposition (audit trail) is present.	ok
`CALIBRATION_SCALE_BOUNDS`	competition_calibration_scale stays within [0.85, 1.35].	ok
`CALIBRATION_RECORDED`	When calibration ran, the pre-calibration lambdas are recorded.	ok
`STANDING_AVAILABLE`	League-standing context is available for a domestic fixture.	ok
`RANKING_PROVENANCE`	Player ranking/quality signals carry a recognised source.	ok
`DATA_DEPTH`	Starters have enough recent games to model rather than synthesise.	ok
`FBREF_PRIORS_ACTIVE`	FBref season-prior files exist so that branch is not silently inert.	3 problems
`XGBOOST_REASONING_PRESENT`	Match-level xgboost_reasoning payload is present with full tracing pipeline.	ok
`XGBOOST_PLAYER_REASONING`	Starters have xgboost_reasoning metadata tracking feature contributions and FBref priors.	ok
`LAMBDA_REASONING_CONSISTENCY`	Lambdas reported in xgboost_reasoning match the final Poisson lambdas.	ok
`PREGAME_DIRECTION_AGREES`	The pregame fair-line favorite agrees with the model winner.	ok
`PREGAME_TOTAL_CONSISTENT`	The pregame expected total is close to the sum of the lambdas.	ok
`RESULT_WINNER_HIT`	The predicted winner matched the real result.	ok
`RESULT_EXACT_SCORE_HIT`	The headline score matched the real scoreline exactly.	ok
`RESULT_OU_HIT`	The Over/Under 2.5 lean matched reality.	ok
`RESULT_BTTS_HIT`	The BTTS lean matched reality.	ok
`RESULT_CONFIDENT_MISS`	A high-confidence prediction did not reach the real outcome.	ok
`OUTCOME_BRIER`	Brier score of the win/draw/loss probabilities vs the real result.	ok

Generated 2026-10-31 13:37:36 UTC · Soccer prediction reporting