Soccer prediction system deep audit

Slate 20261101 · immutable forensic review of 5 match prediction artifact(s)

Executive conclusion

In 4 match(es) the headline score is not the distribution's modal scoreline (a breach of the published-mode contract) — see the MOST_LIKELY_IS_MODE findings.

At a glance

5matches audited

0critical

0errors

5warnings

0grid non-reproducible

4headline != modal

0winner disagreements

0lambda inconsistencies

0with real result

-winner hit-rate

-decisive hit-rate

0%predicted draws

-actual draws

0confident misses

-mean Brier

Matches

Liverpool vs Arsenal

20261101_ARS@LIV · Premier League

WARNINGS risk 10 pred 2-1 (Liverpool)λ 1.55 / 1.30conf 0.72 warning 1 good 40

Problems (1)

Sev	Category	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
warning	model_behavior	`MOST_LIKELY_IS_MODE`	Headline score is not the modal scoreline (modal=1-1 (p=0.1172), shown=2-1 (p=0.0904)); the published exact score must be the grid mode, and the winning scenario belongs in the labelled most_likely_winning_score_home/away fields. Both lean Liverpool.	2-1	1-1

Lambda evolution (audit trail)

Stage	Home λ	Away λ
Pre-competitive-floor	1.844	1.514
Pre-calibration	1.831	1.525
Final	1.554	1.301

competition_calibration_scale: 0.85competition_observed_total_goals: 2.781quality_gap_applied: Falsemismatch_score_pressure_applied: Falsecompetitive_underdog_floor_applied: Falsestage_discount: 1.0

Scoreline distribution

Top scorelines	P
1-1	11.7%
2-1	9.0%
1-0	8.9%
1-2	7.6%
0-1	7.4%

Outcome — home 43.2% · draw 24.9% · away 31.9%

Markets — O2.5 54.4% · BTTS 57.5%

Passed checks (40)

Sev	Category	Rule	Message
good	integrity	`SCHEMA_KEYS_PRESENT`	All required sections present.
good	structure	`LINEUP_ELEVEN`	Liverpool: 11 starters.
good	structure	`FORMATION_VALID`	Liverpool: formation 4-2-3-1 valid.
good	structure	`LINEUP_ELEVEN`	Arsenal: 11 starters.
good	structure	`FORMATION_VALID`	Arsenal: formation 4-2-3-1 valid.
good	probability	`OUTCOME_SUMS_ONE`	outcome sums to 1.0000.
good	probability	`MARKETS_COMPLEMENTARY`	Over/Under and BTTS pairs each sum to 1.
good	probability	`SCORELINE_PROBS_NONNEG`	All scoreline probabilities within [0,1].
good	probability	`GRID_SUMS_ONE`	scoreline grid sums to 0.9961.
good	model_behavior	`GRID_REPRODUCIBLE`	Grid reproducible from lambdas (max cell diff 0.0009).
good	probability	`MLS_PROBABILITY_MATCHES`	Headline probability matches the grid.
good	model_behavior	`OUTCOME_MATCHES_GRID`	Outcome split matches the grid (max diff 0.0020).
good	model_behavior	`MARKETS_MATCH_GRID`	Markets match the grid (max diff 0.0038).
good	integrity	`WINNER_IS_VALID_TEAM`	predicted_winner 'Liverpool' is a participating side.
good	model_behavior	`WINNER_MATCHES_SCORE`	Winner agrees with headline score (Liverpool).
good	model_behavior	`WINNER_PROBABILITY_DIRECTION`	predicted_winner 'Liverpool' follows the published modal scoreline 2-1.
good	model_behavior	`LAMBDA_BOUNDS`	Lambdas in range (home 1.554, away 1.301).
good	provenance	`LAMBDA_FACTORS_PRESENT`	lambda_factors audit trail present.
good	model_behavior	`LAMBDA_CONSISTENCY`	Lambda identical across prediction / antagonist / factors.
good	model_behavior	`CALIBRATION_SCALE_BOUNDS`	Calibration scale 0.85 in range.
good	provenance	`CALIBRATION_RECORDED`	Calibration recorded with pre/post lambdas.
good	provenance	`XGBOOST_REASONING_PRESENT`	Match-level xgboost_reasoning present (XGBoost).
good	model_behavior	`LAMBDA_REASONING_CONSISTENCY`	Lambdas in xgboost_reasoning match final Poisson lambdas (1.554 / 1.301).
good	provenance	`FBREF_PRIORS_ACTIVE`	FBref team priors applied (blend weight 0.192, home E[lambda]=2.759, away E[lambda]=2.759).
good	provenance	`XGBOOST_PLAYER_REASONING`	All 22 starters carry full XGBoost / FBref reasoning.
good	integrity	`TEAM_GOALS_SUM`	Liverpool: player goals reconcile to team total (2).
good	integrity	`TEAM_GOALS_SUM`	Arsenal: player goals reconcile to team total (1).
good	structure	`POSSESSION_SUMS_100`	Possession sums to 100.0%.
good	integrity	`PLAYER_STAT_REALISM`	All 22 projected player lines pass realism checks.
good	structure	`EXACTLY_ONE_GOALKEEPER`	Liverpool: exactly one goalkeeper (Alisson).
good	integrity	`SHOT_MATH_INTEGRITY`	All 11 projected lines have consistent shot components.
good	integrity	`TEAM_SHOTS_CAP`	Liverpool: 17 projected shots inside the realistic envelope.
good	structure	`EXACTLY_ONE_GOALKEEPER`	Arsenal: exactly one goalkeeper (David Raya).
good	integrity	`SHOT_MATH_INTEGRITY`	All 11 projected lines have consistent shot components.
good	integrity	`TEAM_SHOTS_CAP`	Arsenal: 14 projected shots inside the realistic envelope.
good	provenance	`STANDING_AVAILABLE`	League-standing context available for both sides.
good	provenance	`RANKING_PROVENANCE`	22/22 starters carry a ranking source.
good	provenance	`DATA_DEPTH`	22/22 starters have adequate recent history.
good	provenance	`PREGAME_DIRECTION_AGREES`	Pregame favorite agrees with the model winner (Liverpool).
good	provenance	`PREGAME_TOTAL_CONSISTENT`	Pregame total 2.85 ~ Poisson total 2.85.

Racing Club vs Real Madrid

20261101_RMA@SAN · LaLiga

WARNINGS risk 10 pred 0-2 (Real Madrid)λ 0.92 / 2.77conf 0.81 warning 1 good 40

Problems (1)

Sev	Category	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
warning	provenance	`FBREF_PRIORS_ACTIVE`	FBref dataset files not found; team priors inactive.

Lambda evolution (audit trail)

Stage	Home λ	Away λ
Pre-mismatch	0.867	3.482
Pre-calibration	0.913	3.316
Final	0.924	2.772

competition_calibration_scale: 0.85competition_observed_total_goals: 2.984quality_gap_applied: Truemismatch_score_pressure_applied: Truecompetitive_underdog_floor_applied: Falsestage_discount: 1.0

Scoreline distribution

Top scorelines	P
0-2	9.5%
1-2	8.8%
0-3	8.8%
1-3	8.2%
0-1	6.9%

Outcome — home 9.8% · draw 14.3% · away 75.8%

Markets — O2.5 71.4% · BTTS 56.6%

Passed checks (40)

Sev	Category	Rule	Message
good	integrity	`SCHEMA_KEYS_PRESENT`	All required sections present.
good	structure	`LINEUP_ELEVEN`	Racing Club: 11 starters.
good	structure	`FORMATION_VALID`	Racing Club: formation 4-2-3-1 valid.
good	structure	`LINEUP_ELEVEN`	Real Madrid: 11 starters.
good	structure	`FORMATION_VALID`	Real Madrid: formation 4-2-3-1 valid.
good	probability	`OUTCOME_SUMS_ONE`	outcome sums to 1.0000.
good	probability	`MARKETS_COMPLEMENTARY`	Over/Under and BTTS pairs each sum to 1.
good	probability	`SCORELINE_PROBS_NONNEG`	All scoreline probabilities within [0,1].
good	probability	`GRID_SUMS_ONE`	scoreline grid sums to 0.9968.
good	model_behavior	`GRID_REPRODUCIBLE`	Grid reproducible from lambdas (max cell diff 0.0003).
good	model_behavior	`MOST_LIKELY_IS_MODE`	Headline score 0-2 is the modal scoreline.
good	probability	`MLS_PROBABILITY_MATCHES`	Headline probability matches the grid.
good	model_behavior	`OUTCOME_MATCHES_GRID`	Outcome split matches the grid (max diff 0.0016).
good	model_behavior	`MARKETS_MATCH_GRID`	Markets match the grid (max diff 0.0032).
good	integrity	`WINNER_IS_VALID_TEAM`	predicted_winner 'Real Madrid' is a participating side.
good	model_behavior	`WINNER_MATCHES_SCORE`	Winner agrees with headline score (Real Madrid).
good	model_behavior	`WINNER_PROBABILITY_DIRECTION`	predicted_winner 'Real Madrid' follows the published modal scoreline 0-2.
good	model_behavior	`LAMBDA_BOUNDS`	Lambdas in range (home 0.924, away 2.772).
good	provenance	`LAMBDA_FACTORS_PRESENT`	lambda_factors audit trail present.
good	model_behavior	`LAMBDA_CONSISTENCY`	Lambda identical across prediction / antagonist / factors.
good	model_behavior	`CALIBRATION_SCALE_BOUNDS`	Calibration scale 0.85 in range.
good	provenance	`CALIBRATION_RECORDED`	Calibration recorded with pre/post lambdas.
good	provenance	`XGBOOST_REASONING_PRESENT`	Match-level xgboost_reasoning present (XGBoost).
good	model_behavior	`LAMBDA_REASONING_CONSISTENCY`	Lambdas in xgboost_reasoning match final Poisson lambdas (0.924 / 2.772).
good	provenance	`XGBOOST_PLAYER_REASONING`	All 22 starters carry full XGBoost / FBref reasoning.
good	integrity	`TEAM_GOALS_SUM`	Racing Club: player goals reconcile to team total (0).
good	integrity	`TEAM_GOALS_SUM`	Real Madrid: player goals reconcile to team total (2).
good	structure	`POSSESSION_SUMS_100`	Possession sums to 100.0%.
good	integrity	`PLAYER_STAT_REALISM`	All 22 projected player lines pass realism checks.
good	structure	`EXACTLY_ONE_GOALKEEPER`	Racing Club: exactly one goalkeeper (Julen Agirrezabala).
good	integrity	`SHOT_MATH_INTEGRITY`	All 11 projected lines have consistent shot components.
good	integrity	`TEAM_SHOTS_CAP`	Racing Club: 10 projected shots inside the realistic envelope.
good	structure	`EXACTLY_ONE_GOALKEEPER`	Real Madrid: exactly one goalkeeper (Thibaut Courtois).
good	integrity	`SHOT_MATH_INTEGRITY`	All 11 projected lines have consistent shot components.
good	integrity	`TEAM_SHOTS_CAP`	Real Madrid: 16 projected shots inside the realistic envelope.
good	provenance	`STANDING_AVAILABLE`	League-standing context available for both sides.
good	provenance	`RANKING_PROVENANCE`	22/22 starters carry a ranking source.
good	provenance	`DATA_DEPTH`	22/22 starters have adequate recent history.
good	provenance	`PREGAME_DIRECTION_AGREES`	Pregame favorite agrees with the model winner (Real Madrid).
good	provenance	`PREGAME_TOTAL_CONSISTENT`	Pregame total 3.70 ~ Poisson total 3.70.

Athletic Club vs Real Sociedad

20261101_RSO@ATH · LaLiga

WARNINGS risk 10 pred 2-1 (Athletic Club)λ 1.73 / 1.25conf 0.74 warning 1 good 40

Problems (1)

Sev	Category	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
warning	model_behavior	`MOST_LIKELY_IS_MODE`	Headline score is not the modal scoreline (modal=1-1 (p=0.1105), shown=2-1 (p=0.0949)); the published exact score must be the grid mode, and the winning scenario belongs in the labelled most_likely_winning_score_home/away fields. Both lean Athletic Club.	2-1	1-1

Lambda evolution (audit trail)

Stage	Home λ	Away λ
Pre-competitive-floor	1.396	1.039
Pre-calibration	1.269	1.071
Final	1.729	1.255

competition_calibration_scale: 1.225competition_observed_total_goals: 2.984quality_gap_applied: Falsemismatch_score_pressure_applied: Falsecompetitive_underdog_floor_applied: Falsestage_discount: 1.0

Scoreline distribution

Top scorelines	P
1-1	11.1%
2-1	9.5%
1-0	8.7%
2-0	7.6%
1-2	6.9%

Outcome — home 48.5% · draw 23.8% · away 27.8%

Markets — O2.5 57.3% · BTTS 58.9%

Passed checks (40)

Sev	Category	Rule	Message
good	integrity	`SCHEMA_KEYS_PRESENT`	All required sections present.
good	structure	`LINEUP_ELEVEN`	Athletic Club: 11 starters.
good	structure	`FORMATION_VALID`	Athletic Club: formation 4-2-3-1 valid.
good	structure	`LINEUP_ELEVEN`	Real Sociedad: 11 starters.
good	structure	`FORMATION_VALID`	Real Sociedad: formation 4-2-3-1 valid.
good	probability	`OUTCOME_SUMS_ONE`	outcome sums to 1.0000.
good	probability	`MARKETS_COMPLEMENTARY`	Over/Under and BTTS pairs each sum to 1.
good	probability	`SCORELINE_PROBS_NONNEG`	All scoreline probabilities within [0,1].
good	probability	`GRID_SUMS_ONE`	scoreline grid sums to 0.9956.
good	model_behavior	`GRID_REPRODUCIBLE`	Grid reproducible from lambdas (max cell diff 0.0008).
good	probability	`MLS_PROBABILITY_MATCHES`	Headline probability matches the grid.
good	model_behavior	`OUTCOME_MATCHES_GRID`	Outcome split matches the grid (max diff 0.0024).
good	model_behavior	`MARKETS_MATCH_GRID`	Markets match the grid (max diff 0.0043).
good	integrity	`WINNER_IS_VALID_TEAM`	predicted_winner 'Athletic Club' is a participating side.
good	model_behavior	`WINNER_MATCHES_SCORE`	Winner agrees with headline score (Athletic Club).
good	model_behavior	`WINNER_PROBABILITY_DIRECTION`	predicted_winner 'Athletic Club' follows the published modal scoreline 2-1.
good	model_behavior	`LAMBDA_BOUNDS`	Lambdas in range (home 1.729, away 1.255).
good	provenance	`LAMBDA_FACTORS_PRESENT`	lambda_factors audit trail present.
good	model_behavior	`LAMBDA_CONSISTENCY`	Lambda identical across prediction / antagonist / factors.
good	model_behavior	`CALIBRATION_SCALE_BOUNDS`	Calibration scale 1.225 in range.
good	provenance	`CALIBRATION_RECORDED`	Calibration recorded with pre/post lambdas.
good	provenance	`XGBOOST_REASONING_PRESENT`	Match-level xgboost_reasoning present (XGBoost).
good	model_behavior	`LAMBDA_REASONING_CONSISTENCY`	Lambdas in xgboost_reasoning match final Poisson lambdas (1.729 / 1.255).
good	provenance	`FBREF_PRIORS_ACTIVE`	FBref team priors applied (blend weight 0.228, home E[lambda]=0.556, away E[lambda]=0.556).
good	provenance	`XGBOOST_PLAYER_REASONING`	All 22 starters carry full XGBoost / FBref reasoning.
good	integrity	`TEAM_GOALS_SUM`	Athletic Club: player goals reconcile to team total (2).
good	integrity	`TEAM_GOALS_SUM`	Real Sociedad: player goals reconcile to team total (1).
good	structure	`POSSESSION_SUMS_100`	Possession sums to 100.0%.
good	integrity	`PLAYER_STAT_REALISM`	All 22 projected player lines pass realism checks.
good	structure	`EXACTLY_ONE_GOALKEEPER`	Athletic Club: exactly one goalkeeper (Unai Simón).
good	integrity	`SHOT_MATH_INTEGRITY`	All 11 projected lines have consistent shot components.
good	integrity	`TEAM_SHOTS_CAP`	Athletic Club: 11 projected shots inside the realistic envelope.
good	structure	`EXACTLY_ONE_GOALKEEPER`	Real Sociedad: exactly one goalkeeper (Álex Remiro).
good	integrity	`SHOT_MATH_INTEGRITY`	All 11 projected lines have consistent shot components.
good	integrity	`TEAM_SHOTS_CAP`	Real Sociedad: 13 projected shots inside the realistic envelope.
good	provenance	`STANDING_AVAILABLE`	League-standing context available for both sides.
good	provenance	`RANKING_PROVENANCE`	22/22 starters carry a ranking source.
good	provenance	`DATA_DEPTH`	22/22 starters have adequate recent history.
good	provenance	`PREGAME_DIRECTION_AGREES`	Pregame favorite agrees with the model winner (Athletic Club).
good	provenance	`PREGAME_TOTAL_CONSISTENT`	Pregame total 2.98 ~ Poisson total 2.98.

Getafe vs Sevilla

20261101_SEV@GET · LaLiga

WARNINGS risk 10 pred 1-2 (Sevilla)λ 1.33 / 1.66conf 0.72 warning 1 good 40

Problems (1)

Sev	Category	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
warning	model_behavior	`MOST_LIKELY_IS_MODE`	Headline score is not the modal scoreline (modal=1-1 (p=0.1120), shown=1-2 (p=0.0922)); the published exact score must be the grid mode, and the winning scenario belongs in the labelled most_likely_winning_score_home/away fields. Both lean Sevilla.	1-2	1-1

Lambda evolution (audit trail)

Stage	Home λ	Away λ
Pre-competitive-floor	0.932	1.452
Pre-calibration	0.981	1.293
Final	1.326	1.658

competition_calibration_scale: 1.252competition_observed_total_goals: 2.984quality_gap_applied: Truemismatch_score_pressure_applied: Falsecompetitive_underdog_floor_applied: Falsestage_discount: 1.0

Scoreline distribution

Top scorelines	P
1-1	11.2%
1-2	9.2%
0-1	8.3%
2-1	7.4%
0-2	7.0%

Outcome — home 30.6% · draw 24.2% · away 45.2%

Markets — O2.5 57.3% · BTTS 59.5%

Passed checks (40)

Sev	Category	Rule	Message
good	integrity	`SCHEMA_KEYS_PRESENT`	All required sections present.
good	structure	`LINEUP_ELEVEN`	Getafe: 11 starters.
good	structure	`FORMATION_VALID`	Getafe: formation 5-3-2 valid.
good	structure	`LINEUP_ELEVEN`	Sevilla: 11 starters.
good	structure	`FORMATION_VALID`	Sevilla: formation 4-4-2 valid.
good	probability	`OUTCOME_SUMS_ONE`	outcome sums to 1.0000.
good	probability	`MARKETS_COMPLEMENTARY`	Over/Under and BTTS pairs each sum to 1.
good	probability	`SCORELINE_PROBS_NONNEG`	All scoreline probabilities within [0,1].
good	probability	`GRID_SUMS_ONE`	scoreline grid sums to 0.9967.
good	model_behavior	`GRID_REPRODUCIBLE`	Grid reproducible from lambdas (max cell diff 0.0008).
good	probability	`MLS_PROBABILITY_MATCHES`	Headline probability matches the grid.
good	model_behavior	`OUTCOME_MATCHES_GRID`	Outcome split matches the grid (max diff 0.0018).
good	model_behavior	`MARKETS_MATCH_GRID`	Markets match the grid (max diff 0.0033).
good	integrity	`WINNER_IS_VALID_TEAM`	predicted_winner 'Sevilla' is a participating side.
good	model_behavior	`WINNER_MATCHES_SCORE`	Winner agrees with headline score (Sevilla).
good	model_behavior	`WINNER_PROBABILITY_DIRECTION`	predicted_winner 'Sevilla' follows the published modal scoreline 1-2.
good	model_behavior	`LAMBDA_BOUNDS`	Lambdas in range (home 1.326, away 1.658).
good	provenance	`LAMBDA_FACTORS_PRESENT`	lambda_factors audit trail present.
good	model_behavior	`LAMBDA_CONSISTENCY`	Lambda identical across prediction / antagonist / factors.
good	model_behavior	`CALIBRATION_SCALE_BOUNDS`	Calibration scale 1.252 in range.
good	provenance	`CALIBRATION_RECORDED`	Calibration recorded with pre/post lambdas.
good	provenance	`XGBOOST_REASONING_PRESENT`	Match-level xgboost_reasoning present (XGBoost).
good	model_behavior	`LAMBDA_REASONING_CONSISTENCY`	Lambdas in xgboost_reasoning match final Poisson lambdas (1.326 / 1.658).
good	provenance	`FBREF_PRIORS_ACTIVE`	FBref team priors applied (blend weight 0.228, home E[lambda]=0.494, away E[lambda]=0.489).
good	provenance	`XGBOOST_PLAYER_REASONING`	All 22 starters carry full XGBoost / FBref reasoning.
good	integrity	`TEAM_GOALS_SUM`	Getafe: player goals reconcile to team total (1).
good	integrity	`TEAM_GOALS_SUM`	Sevilla: player goals reconcile to team total (2).
good	structure	`POSSESSION_SUMS_100`	Possession sums to 100.0%.
good	integrity	`PLAYER_STAT_REALISM`	All 22 projected player lines pass realism checks.
good	structure	`EXACTLY_ONE_GOALKEEPER`	Getafe: exactly one goalkeeper (David Soria).
good	integrity	`SHOT_MATH_INTEGRITY`	All 11 projected lines have consistent shot components.
good	integrity	`TEAM_SHOTS_CAP`	Getafe: 12 projected shots inside the realistic envelope.
good	structure	`EXACTLY_ONE_GOALKEEPER`	Sevilla: exactly one goalkeeper (Odysseas Vlachodimos).
good	integrity	`SHOT_MATH_INTEGRITY`	All 11 projected lines have consistent shot components.
good	integrity	`TEAM_SHOTS_CAP`	Sevilla: 16 projected shots inside the realistic envelope.
good	provenance	`STANDING_AVAILABLE`	League-standing context available for both sides.
good	provenance	`RANKING_PROVENANCE`	22/22 starters carry a ranking source.
good	provenance	`DATA_DEPTH`	22/22 starters have adequate recent history.
good	provenance	`PREGAME_DIRECTION_AGREES`	Pregame favorite agrees with the model winner (Sevilla).
good	provenance	`PREGAME_TOTAL_CONSISTENT`	Pregame total 2.98 ~ Poisson total 2.98.

Elche vs Valencia

20261101_VAL@ELC · LaLiga

WARNINGS risk 10 pred 1-0 (Elche)λ 1.54 / 1.18conf 0.72 warning 1 good 40

Problems (1)

Sev	Category	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
warning	model_behavior	`MOST_LIKELY_IS_MODE`	Headline score is not the modal scoreline (modal=1-1 (p=0.1206), shown=1-0 (p=0.1006)); the published exact score must be the grid mode, and the winning scenario belongs in the labelled most_likely_winning_score_home/away fields. Both lean Elche.	1-0	1-1

Lambda evolution (audit trail)

Stage	Home λ	Away λ
Pre-competitive-floor	1.121	0.895
Pre-calibration	1.154	0.870
Final	1.545	1.176

competition_calibration_scale: 1.35competition_observed_total_goals: 2.984quality_gap_applied: Truemismatch_score_pressure_applied: Falsecompetitive_underdog_floor_applied: Falsestage_discount: 1.0

Scoreline distribution

Top scorelines	P
1-1	12.1%
1-0	10.1%
2-1	9.2%
2-0	7.8%
0-1	7.6%

Outcome — home 45.7% · draw 25.4% · away 28.9%

Markets — O2.5 51.1% · BTTS 54.5%

Passed checks (40)

Sev	Category	Rule	Message
good	integrity	`SCHEMA_KEYS_PRESENT`	All required sections present.
good	structure	`LINEUP_ELEVEN`	Elche: 11 starters.
good	structure	`FORMATION_VALID`	Elche: formation 4-2-3-1 valid.
good	structure	`LINEUP_ELEVEN`	Valencia: 11 starters.
good	structure	`FORMATION_VALID`	Valencia: formation 4-3-3 valid.
good	probability	`OUTCOME_SUMS_ONE`	outcome sums to 1.0000.
good	probability	`MARKETS_COMPLEMENTARY`	Over/Under and BTTS pairs each sum to 1.
good	probability	`SCORELINE_PROBS_NONNEG`	All scoreline probabilities within [0,1].
good	probability	`GRID_SUMS_ONE`	scoreline grid sums to 0.9963.
good	model_behavior	`GRID_REPRODUCIBLE`	Grid reproducible from lambdas (max cell diff 0.0011).
good	probability	`MLS_PROBABILITY_MATCHES`	Headline probability matches the grid.
good	model_behavior	`OUTCOME_MATCHES_GRID`	Outcome split matches the grid (max diff 0.0019).
good	model_behavior	`MARKETS_MATCH_GRID`	Markets match the grid (max diff 0.0036).
good	integrity	`WINNER_IS_VALID_TEAM`	predicted_winner 'Elche' is a participating side.
good	model_behavior	`WINNER_MATCHES_SCORE`	Winner agrees with headline score (Elche).
good	model_behavior	`WINNER_PROBABILITY_DIRECTION`	predicted_winner 'Elche' follows the published modal scoreline 1-0.
good	model_behavior	`LAMBDA_BOUNDS`	Lambdas in range (home 1.545, away 1.176).
good	provenance	`LAMBDA_FACTORS_PRESENT`	lambda_factors audit trail present.
good	model_behavior	`LAMBDA_CONSISTENCY`	Lambda identical across prediction / antagonist / factors.
good	model_behavior	`CALIBRATION_SCALE_BOUNDS`	Calibration scale 1.35 in range.
good	provenance	`CALIBRATION_RECORDED`	Calibration recorded with pre/post lambdas.
good	provenance	`XGBOOST_REASONING_PRESENT`	Match-level xgboost_reasoning present (XGBoost).
good	model_behavior	`LAMBDA_REASONING_CONSISTENCY`	Lambdas in xgboost_reasoning match final Poisson lambdas (1.545 / 1.176).
good	provenance	`FBREF_PRIORS_ACTIVE`	FBref team priors applied (blend weight 0.228, home E[lambda]=0.244, away E[lambda]=0.247).
good	provenance	`XGBOOST_PLAYER_REASONING`	All 22 starters carry full XGBoost / FBref reasoning.
good	integrity	`TEAM_GOALS_SUM`	Elche: player goals reconcile to team total (1).
good	integrity	`TEAM_GOALS_SUM`	Valencia: player goals reconcile to team total (0).
good	structure	`POSSESSION_SUMS_100`	Possession sums to 100.0%.
good	integrity	`PLAYER_STAT_REALISM`	All 22 projected player lines pass realism checks.
good	structure	`EXACTLY_ONE_GOALKEEPER`	Elche: exactly one goalkeeper (Matías Dituro).
good	integrity	`SHOT_MATH_INTEGRITY`	All 11 projected lines have consistent shot components.
good	integrity	`TEAM_SHOTS_CAP`	Elche: 14 projected shots inside the realistic envelope.
good	structure	`EXACTLY_ONE_GOALKEEPER`	Valencia: exactly one goalkeeper (Stole Dimitrievski).
good	integrity	`SHOT_MATH_INTEGRITY`	All 11 projected lines have consistent shot components.
good	integrity	`TEAM_SHOTS_CAP`	Valencia: 13 projected shots inside the realistic envelope.
good	provenance	`STANDING_AVAILABLE`	League-standing context available for both sides.
good	provenance	`RANKING_PROVENANCE`	22/22 starters carry a ranking source.
good	provenance	`DATA_DEPTH`	21/22 starters have adequate recent history.
good	provenance	`PREGAME_DIRECTION_AGREES`	Pregame favorite agrees with the model winner (Elche).
good	provenance	`PREGAME_TOTAL_CONSISTENT`	Pregame total 2.72 ~ Poisson total 2.72.

Rule catalogue

Rule	Description	Triggered
`SCHEMA_KEYS_PRESENT`	All required top-level sections exist in the artifact.	ok
`LINEUP_ELEVEN`	Each side fields exactly 11 starters.	ok
`FORMATION_VALID`	Formation string parses and its outfield lines sum to 10.	ok
`POSSESSION_SUMS_100`	Estimated possession of both teams sums to ~100%.	ok
`TEAM_GOALS_SUM`	Players' projected integer goals sum to the team's headline score.	ok
`TEAM_TOTALS_SCORE_MATCH`	team_totals.projected_goals equals the headline score component.	ok
`TEAM_EG_LAMBDA_MATCH`	team_totals.expected_goals matches the team's Poisson lambda.	ok
`PLAYER_STAT_REALISM`	Projected player lines are internally consistent (xG<=shots, accurate<=total passes, minutes/rating in range).	ok
`EXACTLY_ONE_GOALKEEPER`	Each starting XI fields exactly one goalkeeper.	ok
`SHOT_MATH_INTEGRITY`	Shot components are physically consistent (on target <= total, on+off <= total; blocked shots cannot be negative).	ok
`PLAYER_MINUTES_LEAGUE_CAP`	No player projects more minutes than the competition clock allows (90 + stoppage, or extra time in cups).	ok
`TEAM_SHOTS_CAP`	Team projected shots stay inside the realistic historical envelope (~35).	ok
`OUTCOME_SUMS_ONE`	home_win + draw + away_win sums to 1.	ok
`MARKETS_COMPLEMENTARY`	Over/Under and BTTS pairs each sum to 1.	ok
`GRID_SUMS_ONE`	The scoreline probability grid sums to ~1.	ok
`SCORELINE_PROBS_NONNEG`	Every scoreline probability is a valid [0,1] value.	ok
`GRID_REPRODUCIBLE`	The reported scoreline grid is reproducible from the lambdas.	ok
`MOST_LIKELY_IS_MODE`	The headline most-likely score is the distribution's modal scoreline.	4 problems
`MLS_PROBABILITY_MATCHES`	most_likely_score_probability equals the grid value of that score.	ok
`OUTCOME_MATCHES_GRID`	The reported win/draw/loss split is derivable from the grid.	ok
`MARKETS_MATCH_GRID`	The reported Over/Under and BTTS are derivable from the grid.	ok
`WINNER_MATCHES_SCORE`	predicted_winner agrees with the headline score direction.	ok
`WINNER_PROBABILITY_DIRECTION`	predicted_winner derives from the published modal scoreline; diverging from the 1X2 favorite is expected.	ok
`WINNER_IS_VALID_TEAM`	predicted_winner names a participating team (or Draw).	ok
`MODAL_OUTCOME_IS_DRAW`	Draw is the single largest outcome bucket while a team is named.	ok
`LAMBDA_BOUNDS`	Both lambdas fall inside the engine's [0.55, 5.00] envelope.	ok
`LAMBDA_CONSISTENCY`	The lambda is identical across prediction / antagonist / lambda_factors.	ok
`LAMBDA_FACTORS_PRESENT`	The lambda_factors decomposition (audit trail) is present.	ok
`CALIBRATION_SCALE_BOUNDS`	competition_calibration_scale stays within [0.85, 1.35].	ok
`CALIBRATION_RECORDED`	When calibration ran, the pre-calibration lambdas are recorded.	ok
`STANDING_AVAILABLE`	League-standing context is available for a domestic fixture.	ok
`RANKING_PROVENANCE`	Player ranking/quality signals carry a recognised source.	ok
`DATA_DEPTH`	Starters have enough recent games to model rather than synthesise.	ok
`FBREF_PRIORS_ACTIVE`	FBref season-prior files exist so that branch is not silently inert.	1 problems
`XGBOOST_REASONING_PRESENT`	Match-level xgboost_reasoning payload is present with full tracing pipeline.	ok
`XGBOOST_PLAYER_REASONING`	Starters have xgboost_reasoning metadata tracking feature contributions and FBref priors.	ok
`LAMBDA_REASONING_CONSISTENCY`	Lambdas reported in xgboost_reasoning match the final Poisson lambdas.	ok
`PREGAME_DIRECTION_AGREES`	The pregame fair-line favorite agrees with the model winner.	ok
`PREGAME_TOTAL_CONSISTENT`	The pregame expected total is close to the sum of the lambdas.	ok
`RESULT_WINNER_HIT`	The predicted winner matched the real result.	ok
`RESULT_EXACT_SCORE_HIT`	The headline score matched the real scoreline exactly.	ok
`RESULT_OU_HIT`	The Over/Under 2.5 lean matched reality.	ok
`RESULT_BTTS_HIT`	The BTTS lean matched reality.	ok
`RESULT_CONFIDENT_MISS`	A high-confidence prediction did not reach the real outcome.	ok
`OUTCOME_BRIER`	Brier score of the win/draw/loss probabilities vs the real result.	ok

Generated 2026-11-01 14:36:50 UTC · Soccer prediction reporting