Soccer prediction system deep audit

Slate 20261107 · immutable forensic review of 8 match prediction artifact(s)

Executive conclusion

In 5 match(es) the headline score is not the distribution's modal scoreline (a breach of the published-mode contract) — see the MOST_LIKELY_IS_MODE findings.

At a glance

8matches audited

0critical

0errors

8warnings

0grid non-reproducible

5headline != modal

0winner disagreements

0lambda inconsistencies

0with real result

-winner hit-rate

-decisive hit-rate

12%predicted draws

-actual draws

0confident misses

-mean Brier

Matches

Espanyol vs Deportivo

20261107_COR@ESP · LaLiga

WARNINGS risk 20 pred 2-1 (Espanyol)λ 1.85 / 1.13conf 0.69 warning 2 good 39

Problems (2)

Sev	Category	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
warning	model_behavior	`MOST_LIKELY_IS_MODE`	Headline score is not the modal scoreline (modal=1-1 (p=0.1068), shown=2-1 (p=0.0982)); the published exact score must be the grid mode, and the winning scenario belongs in the labelled most_likely_winning_score_home/away fields. Both lean Espanyol.	2-1	1-1
warning	provenance	`FBREF_PRIORS_ACTIVE`	FBref dataset files not found; team priors inactive.

Lambda evolution (audit trail)

Stage	Home λ	Away λ
Pre-competitive-floor	1.422	0.839
Pre-calibration	1.403	0.851
Final	1.851	1.132

competition_calibration_scale: 1.32competition_observed_total_goals: 2.984quality_gap_applied: Falsemismatch_score_pressure_applied: Falsecompetitive_underdog_floor_applied: Falsestage_discount: 1.0

Scoreline distribution

Top scorelines	P
1-1	10.7%
2-1	9.8%
1-0	9.3%
2-0	8.7%
3-1	6.1%

Outcome — home 54.1% · draw 22.8% · away 23.0%

Markets — O2.5 57.3% · BTTS 57.2%

Passed checks (39)

Sev	Category	Rule	Message
good	integrity	`SCHEMA_KEYS_PRESENT`	All required sections present.
good	structure	`LINEUP_ELEVEN`	Espanyol: 11 starters.
good	structure	`FORMATION_VALID`	Espanyol: formation 4-2-3-1 valid.
good	structure	`LINEUP_ELEVEN`	Deportivo: 11 starters.
good	structure	`FORMATION_VALID`	Deportivo: formation 4-2-3-1 valid.
good	probability	`OUTCOME_SUMS_ONE`	outcome sums to 0.9999.
good	probability	`MARKETS_COMPLEMENTARY`	Over/Under and BTTS pairs each sum to 1.
good	probability	`SCORELINE_PROBS_NONNEG`	All scoreline probabilities within [0,1].
good	probability	`GRID_SUMS_ONE`	scoreline grid sums to 0.9968.
good	model_behavior	`GRID_REPRODUCIBLE`	Grid reproducible from lambdas (max cell diff 0.0007).
good	probability	`MLS_PROBABILITY_MATCHES`	Headline probability matches the grid.
good	model_behavior	`OUTCOME_MATCHES_GRID`	Outcome split matches the grid (max diff 0.0016).
good	model_behavior	`MARKETS_MATCH_GRID`	Markets match the grid (max diff 0.0033).
good	integrity	`WINNER_IS_VALID_TEAM`	predicted_winner 'Espanyol' is a participating side.
good	model_behavior	`WINNER_MATCHES_SCORE`	Winner agrees with headline score (Espanyol).
good	model_behavior	`WINNER_PROBABILITY_DIRECTION`	predicted_winner 'Espanyol' follows the published modal scoreline 2-1.
good	model_behavior	`LAMBDA_BOUNDS`	Lambdas in range (home 1.851, away 1.132).
good	provenance	`LAMBDA_FACTORS_PRESENT`	lambda_factors audit trail present.
good	model_behavior	`LAMBDA_CONSISTENCY`	Lambda identical across prediction / antagonist / factors.
good	model_behavior	`CALIBRATION_SCALE_BOUNDS`	Calibration scale 1.32 in range.
good	provenance	`CALIBRATION_RECORDED`	Calibration recorded with pre/post lambdas.
good	provenance	`XGBOOST_REASONING_PRESENT`	Match-level xgboost_reasoning present (XGBoost).
good	model_behavior	`LAMBDA_REASONING_CONSISTENCY`	Lambdas in xgboost_reasoning match final Poisson lambdas (1.851 / 1.132).
good	provenance	`XGBOOST_PLAYER_REASONING`	All 22 starters carry full XGBoost / FBref reasoning.
good	integrity	`TEAM_GOALS_SUM`	Espanyol: player goals reconcile to team total (2).
good	integrity	`TEAM_GOALS_SUM`	Deportivo: player goals reconcile to team total (1).
good	structure	`POSSESSION_SUMS_100`	Possession sums to 100.0%.
good	integrity	`PLAYER_STAT_REALISM`	All 22 projected player lines pass realism checks.
good	structure	`EXACTLY_ONE_GOALKEEPER`	Espanyol: exactly one goalkeeper (Marko Dmitrović).
good	integrity	`SHOT_MATH_INTEGRITY`	All 11 projected lines have consistent shot components.
good	integrity	`TEAM_SHOTS_CAP`	Espanyol: 11 projected shots inside the realistic envelope.
good	structure	`EXACTLY_ONE_GOALKEEPER`	Deportivo: exactly one goalkeeper (Leo Román).
good	integrity	`SHOT_MATH_INTEGRITY`	All 11 projected lines have consistent shot components.
good	integrity	`TEAM_SHOTS_CAP`	Deportivo: 11 projected shots inside the realistic envelope.
good	provenance	`STANDING_AVAILABLE`	League-standing context available for both sides.
good	provenance	`RANKING_PROVENANCE`	22/22 starters carry a ranking source.
good	provenance	`DATA_DEPTH`	22/22 starters have adequate recent history.
good	provenance	`PREGAME_DIRECTION_AGREES`	Pregame favorite agrees with the model winner (Espanyol).
good	provenance	`PREGAME_TOTAL_CONSISTENT`	Pregame total 2.98 ~ Poisson total 2.98.

Málaga vs Racing Club

20261107_SAN@MCF · LaLiga

WARNINGS risk 20 pred 1-0 (Málaga)λ 1.45 / 1.20conf 0.65 warning 2 good 39

Problems (2)

Sev	Category	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
warning	model_behavior	`MOST_LIKELY_IS_MODE`	Headline score is not the modal scoreline (modal=1-1 (p=0.1239), shown=1-0 (p=0.1012)); the published exact score must be the grid mode, and the winning scenario belongs in the labelled most_likely_winning_score_home/away fields. Both lean Málaga.	1-0	1-1
warning	provenance	`FBREF_PRIORS_ACTIVE`	FBref dataset files not found; team priors inactive.

Lambda evolution (audit trail)

Stage	Home λ	Away λ
Pre-competitive-floor	1.031	0.934
Pre-calibration	1.024	0.941
Final	1.453	1.200

competition_calibration_scale: 1.35competition_observed_total_goals: 2.984quality_gap_applied: Falsemismatch_score_pressure_applied: Falsecompetitive_underdog_floor_applied: Falsestage_discount: 1.0

Scoreline distribution

Top scorelines	P
1-1	12.4%
1-0	10.1%
2-1	8.9%
0-1	8.3%
2-0	7.4%

Outcome — home 42.8% · draw 26.1% · away 31.1%

Markets — O2.5 49.5% · BTTS 53.6%

Passed checks (39)

Sev	Category	Rule	Message
good	integrity	`SCHEMA_KEYS_PRESENT`	All required sections present.
good	structure	`LINEUP_ELEVEN`	Málaga: 11 starters.
good	structure	`FORMATION_VALID`	Málaga: formation 4-1-4-1 valid.
good	structure	`LINEUP_ELEVEN`	Racing Club: 11 starters.
good	structure	`FORMATION_VALID`	Racing Club: formation 4-2-3-1 valid.
good	probability	`OUTCOME_SUMS_ONE`	outcome sums to 1.0000.
good	probability	`MARKETS_COMPLEMENTARY`	Over/Under and BTTS pairs each sum to 1.
good	probability	`SCORELINE_PROBS_NONNEG`	All scoreline probabilities within [0,1].
good	probability	`GRID_SUMS_ONE`	scoreline grid sums to 0.9965.
good	model_behavior	`GRID_REPRODUCIBLE`	Grid reproducible from lambdas (max cell diff 0.0012).
good	probability	`MLS_PROBABILITY_MATCHES`	Headline probability matches the grid.
good	model_behavior	`OUTCOME_MATCHES_GRID`	Outcome split matches the grid (max diff 0.0019).
good	model_behavior	`MARKETS_MATCH_GRID`	Markets match the grid (max diff 0.0035).
good	integrity	`WINNER_IS_VALID_TEAM`	predicted_winner 'Málaga' is a participating side.
good	model_behavior	`WINNER_MATCHES_SCORE`	Winner agrees with headline score (Málaga).
good	model_behavior	`WINNER_PROBABILITY_DIRECTION`	predicted_winner 'Málaga' follows the published modal scoreline 1-0.
good	model_behavior	`LAMBDA_BOUNDS`	Lambdas in range (home 1.453, away 1.2).
good	provenance	`LAMBDA_FACTORS_PRESENT`	lambda_factors audit trail present.
good	model_behavior	`LAMBDA_CONSISTENCY`	Lambda identical across prediction / antagonist / factors.
good	model_behavior	`CALIBRATION_SCALE_BOUNDS`	Calibration scale 1.35 in range.
good	provenance	`CALIBRATION_RECORDED`	Calibration recorded with pre/post lambdas.
good	provenance	`XGBOOST_REASONING_PRESENT`	Match-level xgboost_reasoning present (XGBoost).
good	model_behavior	`LAMBDA_REASONING_CONSISTENCY`	Lambdas in xgboost_reasoning match final Poisson lambdas (1.453 / 1.2).
good	provenance	`XGBOOST_PLAYER_REASONING`	All 22 starters carry full XGBoost / FBref reasoning.
good	integrity	`TEAM_GOALS_SUM`	Málaga: player goals reconcile to team total (1).
good	integrity	`TEAM_GOALS_SUM`	Racing Club: player goals reconcile to team total (0).
good	structure	`POSSESSION_SUMS_100`	Possession sums to 100.0%.
good	integrity	`PLAYER_STAT_REALISM`	All 22 projected player lines pass realism checks.
good	structure	`EXACTLY_ONE_GOALKEEPER`	Málaga: exactly one goalkeeper (Alfonso Herrero).
good	integrity	`SHOT_MATH_INTEGRITY`	All 11 projected lines have consistent shot components.
good	integrity	`TEAM_SHOTS_CAP`	Málaga: 8 projected shots inside the realistic envelope.
good	structure	`EXACTLY_ONE_GOALKEEPER`	Racing Club: exactly one goalkeeper (Julen Agirrezabala).
good	integrity	`SHOT_MATH_INTEGRITY`	All 11 projected lines have consistent shot components.
good	integrity	`TEAM_SHOTS_CAP`	Racing Club: 11 projected shots inside the realistic envelope.
good	provenance	`STANDING_AVAILABLE`	League-standing context available for both sides.
good	provenance	`RANKING_PROVENANCE`	22/22 starters carry a ranking source.
good	provenance	`DATA_DEPTH`	21/22 starters have adequate recent history.
good	provenance	`PREGAME_DIRECTION_AGREES`	Pregame favorite agrees with the model winner (Málaga).
good	provenance	`PREGAME_TOTAL_CONSISTENT`	Pregame total 2.65 ~ Poisson total 2.65.

Osasuna vs Athletic Club

20261107_ATH@OSA · LaLiga

WARNINGS risk 10 pred 2-1 (Osasuna)λ 1.66 / 1.33conf 0.67 warning 1 good 40

Problems (1)

Sev	Category	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
warning	model_behavior	`MOST_LIKELY_IS_MODE`	Headline score is not the modal scoreline (modal=1-1 (p=0.1120), shown=2-1 (p=0.0921)); the published exact score must be the grid mode, and the winning scenario belongs in the labelled most_likely_winning_score_home/away fields. Both lean Osasuna.	2-1	1-1

Lambda evolution (audit trail)

Stage	Home λ	Away λ
Pre-competitive-floor	1.220	1.055
Pre-calibration	1.117	1.080
Final	1.656	1.328

competition_calibration_scale: 1.312competition_observed_total_goals: 2.984quality_gap_applied: Truemismatch_score_pressure_applied: Falsecompetitive_underdog_floor_applied: Falsestage_discount: 1.0

Scoreline distribution

Top scorelines	P
1-1	11.2%
2-1	9.2%
1-0	8.3%
1-2	7.4%
2-0	6.9%

Outcome — home 45.1% · draw 24.2% · away 30.7%

Markets — O2.5 57.3% · BTTS 59.6%

Passed checks (40)

Sev	Category	Rule	Message
good	integrity	`SCHEMA_KEYS_PRESENT`	All required sections present.
good	structure	`LINEUP_ELEVEN`	Osasuna: 11 starters.
good	structure	`FORMATION_VALID`	Osasuna: formation 4-3-3 valid.
good	structure	`LINEUP_ELEVEN`	Athletic Club: 11 starters.
good	structure	`FORMATION_VALID`	Athletic Club: formation 4-2-3-1 valid.
good	probability	`OUTCOME_SUMS_ONE`	outcome sums to 1.0000.
good	probability	`MARKETS_COMPLEMENTARY`	Over/Under and BTTS pairs each sum to 1.
good	probability	`SCORELINE_PROBS_NONNEG`	All scoreline probabilities within [0,1].
good	probability	`GRID_SUMS_ONE`	scoreline grid sums to 0.9969.
good	model_behavior	`GRID_REPRODUCIBLE`	Grid reproducible from lambdas (max cell diff 0.0008).
good	probability	`MLS_PROBABILITY_MATCHES`	Headline probability matches the grid.
good	model_behavior	`OUTCOME_MATCHES_GRID`	Outcome split matches the grid (max diff 0.0016).
good	model_behavior	`MARKETS_MATCH_GRID`	Markets match the grid (max diff 0.0031).
good	integrity	`WINNER_IS_VALID_TEAM`	predicted_winner 'Osasuna' is a participating side.
good	model_behavior	`WINNER_MATCHES_SCORE`	Winner agrees with headline score (Osasuna).
good	model_behavior	`WINNER_PROBABILITY_DIRECTION`	predicted_winner 'Osasuna' follows the published modal scoreline 2-1.
good	model_behavior	`LAMBDA_BOUNDS`	Lambdas in range (home 1.656, away 1.328).
good	provenance	`LAMBDA_FACTORS_PRESENT`	lambda_factors audit trail present.
good	model_behavior	`LAMBDA_CONSISTENCY`	Lambda identical across prediction / antagonist / factors.
good	model_behavior	`CALIBRATION_SCALE_BOUNDS`	Calibration scale 1.312 in range.
good	provenance	`CALIBRATION_RECORDED`	Calibration recorded with pre/post lambdas.
good	provenance	`XGBOOST_REASONING_PRESENT`	Match-level xgboost_reasoning present (XGBoost).
good	model_behavior	`LAMBDA_REASONING_CONSISTENCY`	Lambdas in xgboost_reasoning match final Poisson lambdas (1.656 / 1.328).
good	provenance	`FBREF_PRIORS_ACTIVE`	FBref team priors applied (blend weight 0.228, home E[lambda]=0.741, away E[lambda]=0.741).
good	provenance	`XGBOOST_PLAYER_REASONING`	All 22 starters carry full XGBoost / FBref reasoning.
good	integrity	`TEAM_GOALS_SUM`	Osasuna: player goals reconcile to team total (2).
good	integrity	`TEAM_GOALS_SUM`	Athletic Club: player goals reconcile to team total (1).
good	structure	`POSSESSION_SUMS_100`	Possession sums to 100.0%.
good	integrity	`PLAYER_STAT_REALISM`	All 22 projected player lines pass realism checks.
good	structure	`EXACTLY_ONE_GOALKEEPER`	Osasuna: exactly one goalkeeper (Sergio Herrera).
good	integrity	`SHOT_MATH_INTEGRITY`	All 11 projected lines have consistent shot components.
good	integrity	`TEAM_SHOTS_CAP`	Osasuna: 11 projected shots inside the realistic envelope.
good	structure	`EXACTLY_ONE_GOALKEEPER`	Athletic Club: exactly one goalkeeper (Unai Simón).
good	integrity	`SHOT_MATH_INTEGRITY`	All 11 projected lines have consistent shot components.
good	integrity	`TEAM_SHOTS_CAP`	Athletic Club: 13 projected shots inside the realistic envelope.
good	provenance	`STANDING_AVAILABLE`	League-standing context available for both sides.
good	provenance	`RANKING_PROVENANCE`	22/22 starters carry a ranking source.
good	provenance	`DATA_DEPTH`	22/22 starters have adequate recent history.
good	provenance	`PREGAME_DIRECTION_AGREES`	Pregame favorite agrees with the model winner (Osasuna).
good	provenance	`PREGAME_TOTAL_CONSISTENT`	Pregame total 2.98 ~ Poisson total 2.98.

Forest vs Man City

20261107_MCI@NFO · Premier League

WARNINGS risk 10 pred 0-1 (Man City)λ 1.07 / 1.78conf 0.69 warning 1 good 40

Problems (1)

Sev	Category	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
warning	model_behavior	`MOST_LIKELY_IS_MODE`	Headline score is not the modal scoreline (modal=1-1 (p=0.1109), shown=0-1 (p=0.1026)); the published exact score must be the grid mode, and the winning scenario belongs in the labelled most_likely_winning_score_home/away fields. Both lean Man City.	0-1	1-1

Lambda evolution (audit trail)

Stage	Home λ	Away λ
Pre-mismatch	1.206	2.143
Pre-competitive-floor	1.171	2.364
Pre-calibration	1.242	2.083
Final	1.067	1.780

competition_calibration_scale: 0.85competition_observed_total_goals: 2.781quality_gap_applied: Truemismatch_score_pressure_applied: Truecompetitive_underdog_floor_applied: Falsestage_discount: 1.0

Scoreline distribution

Top scorelines	P
1-1	11.1%
0-1	10.3%
1-2	9.8%
0-2	9.2%
1-0	6.1%

Outcome — home 22.6% · draw 23.4% · away 54.0%

Markets — O2.5 54.2% · BTTS 54.6%

Passed checks (40)

Sev	Category	Rule	Message
good	integrity	`SCHEMA_KEYS_PRESENT`	All required sections present.
good	structure	`LINEUP_ELEVEN`	Forest: 11 starters.
good	structure	`FORMATION_VALID`	Forest: formation 3-4-2-1 valid.
good	structure	`LINEUP_ELEVEN`	Man City: 11 starters.
good	structure	`FORMATION_VALID`	Man City: formation 4-2-3-1 valid.
good	probability	`OUTCOME_SUMS_ONE`	outcome sums to 1.0000.
good	probability	`MARKETS_COMPLEMENTARY`	Over/Under and BTTS pairs each sum to 1.
good	probability	`SCORELINE_PROBS_NONNEG`	All scoreline probabilities within [0,1].
good	probability	`GRID_SUMS_ONE`	scoreline grid sums to 0.9969.
good	model_behavior	`GRID_REPRODUCIBLE`	Grid reproducible from lambdas (max cell diff 0.0007).
good	probability	`MLS_PROBABILITY_MATCHES`	Headline probability matches the grid.
good	model_behavior	`OUTCOME_MATCHES_GRID`	Outcome split matches the grid (max diff 0.0018).
good	model_behavior	`MARKETS_MATCH_GRID`	Markets match the grid (max diff 0.0031).
good	integrity	`WINNER_IS_VALID_TEAM`	predicted_winner 'Man City' is a participating side.
good	model_behavior	`WINNER_MATCHES_SCORE`	Winner agrees with headline score (Man City).
good	model_behavior	`WINNER_PROBABILITY_DIRECTION`	predicted_winner 'Man City' follows the published modal scoreline 0-1.
good	model_behavior	`LAMBDA_BOUNDS`	Lambdas in range (home 1.067, away 1.78).
good	provenance	`LAMBDA_FACTORS_PRESENT`	lambda_factors audit trail present.
good	model_behavior	`LAMBDA_CONSISTENCY`	Lambda identical across prediction / antagonist / factors.
good	model_behavior	`CALIBRATION_SCALE_BOUNDS`	Calibration scale 0.85 in range.
good	provenance	`CALIBRATION_RECORDED`	Calibration recorded with pre/post lambdas.
good	provenance	`XGBOOST_REASONING_PRESENT`	Match-level xgboost_reasoning present (XGBoost).
good	model_behavior	`LAMBDA_REASONING_CONSISTENCY`	Lambdas in xgboost_reasoning match final Poisson lambdas (1.067 / 1.78).
good	provenance	`FBREF_PRIORS_ACTIVE`	FBref team priors applied (blend weight 0.192, home E[lambda]=2.069, away E[lambda]=2.069).
good	provenance	`XGBOOST_PLAYER_REASONING`	All 22 starters carry full XGBoost / FBref reasoning.
good	integrity	`TEAM_GOALS_SUM`	Forest: player goals reconcile to team total (0).
good	integrity	`TEAM_GOALS_SUM`	Man City: player goals reconcile to team total (1).
good	structure	`POSSESSION_SUMS_100`	Possession sums to 100.0%.
good	integrity	`PLAYER_STAT_REALISM`	All 22 projected player lines pass realism checks.
good	structure	`EXACTLY_ONE_GOALKEEPER`	Forest: exactly one goalkeeper (Matz Sels).
good	integrity	`SHOT_MATH_INTEGRITY`	All 11 projected lines have consistent shot components.
good	integrity	`TEAM_SHOTS_CAP`	Forest: 16 projected shots inside the realistic envelope.
good	structure	`EXACTLY_ONE_GOALKEEPER`	Man City: exactly one goalkeeper (Gianluigi Donnarumma).
good	integrity	`SHOT_MATH_INTEGRITY`	All 11 projected lines have consistent shot components.
good	integrity	`TEAM_SHOTS_CAP`	Man City: 17 projected shots inside the realistic envelope.
good	provenance	`STANDING_AVAILABLE`	League-standing context available for both sides.
good	provenance	`RANKING_PROVENANCE`	22/22 starters carry a ranking source.
good	provenance	`DATA_DEPTH`	22/22 starters have adequate recent history.
good	provenance	`PREGAME_DIRECTION_AGREES`	Pregame favorite agrees with the model winner (Man City).
good	provenance	`PREGAME_TOTAL_CONSISTENT`	Pregame total 2.85 ~ Poisson total 2.85.

Fulham vs Newcastle

20261107_NEW@FUL · Premier League

WARNINGS risk 10 pred 1-0 (Fulham)λ 1.51 / 1.27conf 0.66 warning 1 good 40

Problems (1)

Sev	Category	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
warning	model_behavior	`MOST_LIKELY_IS_MODE`	Headline score is not the modal scoreline (modal=1-1 (p=0.1200), shown=1-0 (p=0.0927)); the published exact score must be the grid mode, and the winning scenario belongs in the labelled most_likely_winning_score_home/away fields. Both lean Fulham.	1-0	1-1

Lambda evolution (audit trail)

Stage	Home λ	Away λ
Pre-competitive-floor	1.445	1.189
Pre-calibration	1.353	1.192
Final	1.513	1.268

competition_calibration_scale: 1.056competition_observed_total_goals: 2.781quality_gap_applied: Truemismatch_score_pressure_applied: Falsecompetitive_underdog_floor_applied: Falsestage_discount: 1.0

Scoreline distribution

Top scorelines	P
1-1	12.0%
1-0	9.3%
2-1	9.0%
0-1	7.8%
1-2	7.5%

Outcome — home 42.9% · draw 25.4% · away 31.8%

Markets — O2.5 52.6% · BTTS 56.1%

Passed checks (40)

Sev	Category	Rule	Message
good	integrity	`SCHEMA_KEYS_PRESENT`	All required sections present.
good	structure	`LINEUP_ELEVEN`	Fulham: 11 starters.
good	structure	`FORMATION_VALID`	Fulham: formation 4-2-3-1 valid.
good	structure	`LINEUP_ELEVEN`	Newcastle: 11 starters.
good	structure	`FORMATION_VALID`	Newcastle: formation 4-2-3-1 valid.
good	probability	`OUTCOME_SUMS_ONE`	outcome sums to 1.0000.
good	probability	`MARKETS_COMPLEMENTARY`	Over/Under and BTTS pairs each sum to 1.
good	probability	`SCORELINE_PROBS_NONNEG`	All scoreline probabilities within [0,1].
good	probability	`GRID_SUMS_ONE`	scoreline grid sums to 0.9964.
good	model_behavior	`GRID_REPRODUCIBLE`	Grid reproducible from lambdas (max cell diff 0.0011).
good	probability	`MLS_PROBABILITY_MATCHES`	Headline probability matches the grid.
good	model_behavior	`OUTCOME_MATCHES_GRID`	Outcome split matches the grid (max diff 0.0019).
good	model_behavior	`MARKETS_MATCH_GRID`	Markets match the grid (max diff 0.0036).
good	integrity	`WINNER_IS_VALID_TEAM`	predicted_winner 'Fulham' is a participating side.
good	model_behavior	`WINNER_MATCHES_SCORE`	Winner agrees with headline score (Fulham).
good	model_behavior	`WINNER_PROBABILITY_DIRECTION`	predicted_winner 'Fulham' follows the published modal scoreline 1-0.
good	model_behavior	`LAMBDA_BOUNDS`	Lambdas in range (home 1.513, away 1.268).
good	provenance	`LAMBDA_FACTORS_PRESENT`	lambda_factors audit trail present.
good	model_behavior	`LAMBDA_CONSISTENCY`	Lambda identical across prediction / antagonist / factors.
good	model_behavior	`CALIBRATION_SCALE_BOUNDS`	Calibration scale 1.056 in range.
good	provenance	`CALIBRATION_RECORDED`	Calibration recorded with pre/post lambdas.
good	provenance	`XGBOOST_REASONING_PRESENT`	Match-level xgboost_reasoning present (XGBoost).
good	model_behavior	`LAMBDA_REASONING_CONSISTENCY`	Lambdas in xgboost_reasoning match final Poisson lambdas (1.513 / 1.268).
good	provenance	`FBREF_PRIORS_ACTIVE`	FBref team priors applied (blend weight 0.192, home E[lambda]=1.379, away E[lambda]=1.379).
good	provenance	`XGBOOST_PLAYER_REASONING`	All 22 starters carry full XGBoost / FBref reasoning.
good	integrity	`TEAM_GOALS_SUM`	Fulham: player goals reconcile to team total (1).
good	integrity	`TEAM_GOALS_SUM`	Newcastle: player goals reconcile to team total (0).
good	structure	`POSSESSION_SUMS_100`	Possession sums to 100.0%.
good	integrity	`PLAYER_STAT_REALISM`	All 22 projected player lines pass realism checks.
good	structure	`EXACTLY_ONE_GOALKEEPER`	Fulham: exactly one goalkeeper (Bernd Leno).
good	integrity	`SHOT_MATH_INTEGRITY`	All 11 projected lines have consistent shot components.
good	integrity	`TEAM_SHOTS_CAP`	Fulham: 15 projected shots inside the realistic envelope.
good	structure	`EXACTLY_ONE_GOALKEEPER`	Newcastle: exactly one goalkeeper (Nick Pope).
good	integrity	`SHOT_MATH_INTEGRITY`	All 11 projected lines have consistent shot components.
good	integrity	`TEAM_SHOTS_CAP`	Newcastle: 11 projected shots inside the realistic envelope.
good	provenance	`STANDING_AVAILABLE`	League-standing context available for both sides.
good	provenance	`RANKING_PROVENANCE`	22/22 starters carry a ranking source.
good	provenance	`DATA_DEPTH`	22/22 starters have adequate recent history.
good	provenance	`PREGAME_DIRECTION_AGREES`	Pregame favorite agrees with the model winner (Fulham).
good	provenance	`PREGAME_TOTAL_CONSISTENT`	Pregame total 2.78 ~ Poisson total 2.78.

Leeds vs Tottenham

20261107_TOT@LEE · Premier League

WARNINGS risk 10 pred 1-1 (Draw)λ 1.46 / 1.33conf 0.65 warning 1 good 38

Problems (1)

Sev	Category	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
warning	provenance	`FBREF_PRIORS_ACTIVE`	FBref dataset files not found; team priors inactive.

Lambda evolution (audit trail)

Stage	Home λ	Away λ
Pre-competitive-floor	1.243	1.157
Pre-calibration	1.289	1.117
Final	1.455	1.326

competition_calibration_scale: 1.159competition_observed_total_goals: 2.781quality_gap_applied: Truemismatch_score_pressure_applied: Falsecompetitive_underdog_floor_applied: Falsestage_discount: 1.0

Scoreline distribution

Top scorelines	P
1-1	12.1%
1-0	8.9%
2-1	8.7%
0-1	8.1%
1-2	7.9%

Outcome — home 40.2% · draw 25.6% · away 34.3%

Markets — O2.5 52.6% · BTTS 56.4%

Passed checks (38)

Sev	Category	Rule	Message
good	integrity	`SCHEMA_KEYS_PRESENT`	All required sections present.
good	structure	`LINEUP_ELEVEN`	Leeds: 11 starters.
good	structure	`FORMATION_VALID`	Leeds: formation 3-4-2-1 valid.
good	structure	`LINEUP_ELEVEN`	Tottenham: 11 starters.
good	structure	`FORMATION_VALID`	Tottenham: formation 4-2-3-1 valid.
good	probability	`OUTCOME_SUMS_ONE`	outcome sums to 1.0000.
good	probability	`MARKETS_COMPLEMENTARY`	Over/Under and BTTS pairs each sum to 1.
good	probability	`SCORELINE_PROBS_NONNEG`	All scoreline probabilities within [0,1].
good	probability	`GRID_SUMS_ONE`	scoreline grid sums to 0.9962.
good	model_behavior	`GRID_REPRODUCIBLE`	Grid reproducible from lambdas (max cell diff 0.0012).
good	model_behavior	`MOST_LIKELY_IS_MODE`	Headline score 1-1 is the modal scoreline.
good	probability	`MLS_PROBABILITY_MATCHES`	Headline probability matches the grid.
good	model_behavior	`OUTCOME_MATCHES_GRID`	Outcome split matches the grid (max diff 0.0021).
good	model_behavior	`MARKETS_MATCH_GRID`	Markets match the grid (max diff 0.0037).
good	integrity	`WINNER_IS_VALID_TEAM`	predicted_winner 'Draw' is a participating side.
good	model_behavior	`WINNER_PROBABILITY_DIRECTION`	predicted_winner 'Draw' follows the published modal scoreline 1-1. It differs from the calibrated 1X2 favorite 'Leeds', which is published separately and does not decide the call.
good	model_behavior	`LAMBDA_BOUNDS`	Lambdas in range (home 1.455, away 1.326).
good	provenance	`LAMBDA_FACTORS_PRESENT`	lambda_factors audit trail present.
good	model_behavior	`LAMBDA_CONSISTENCY`	Lambda identical across prediction / antagonist / factors.
good	model_behavior	`CALIBRATION_SCALE_BOUNDS`	Calibration scale 1.159 in range.
good	provenance	`CALIBRATION_RECORDED`	Calibration recorded with pre/post lambdas.
good	provenance	`XGBOOST_REASONING_PRESENT`	Match-level xgboost_reasoning present (XGBoost).
good	model_behavior	`LAMBDA_REASONING_CONSISTENCY`	Lambdas in xgboost_reasoning match final Poisson lambdas (1.455 / 1.326).
good	provenance	`XGBOOST_PLAYER_REASONING`	All 22 starters carry full XGBoost / FBref reasoning.
good	integrity	`TEAM_GOALS_SUM`	Leeds: player goals reconcile to team total (1).
good	integrity	`TEAM_GOALS_SUM`	Tottenham: player goals reconcile to team total (1).
good	structure	`POSSESSION_SUMS_100`	Possession sums to 100.0%.
good	integrity	`PLAYER_STAT_REALISM`	All 22 projected player lines pass realism checks.
good	structure	`EXACTLY_ONE_GOALKEEPER`	Leeds: exactly one goalkeeper (James Trafford).
good	integrity	`SHOT_MATH_INTEGRITY`	All 11 projected lines have consistent shot components.
good	integrity	`TEAM_SHOTS_CAP`	Leeds: 13 projected shots inside the realistic envelope.
good	structure	`EXACTLY_ONE_GOALKEEPER`	Tottenham: exactly one goalkeeper (Antonín Kinský).
good	integrity	`SHOT_MATH_INTEGRITY`	All 11 projected lines have consistent shot components.
good	integrity	`TEAM_SHOTS_CAP`	Tottenham: 12 projected shots inside the realistic envelope.
good	provenance	`STANDING_AVAILABLE`	League-standing context available for both sides.
good	provenance	`RANKING_PROVENANCE`	22/22 starters carry a ranking source.
good	provenance	`DATA_DEPTH`	22/22 starters have adequate recent history.
good	provenance	`PREGAME_TOTAL_CONSISTENT`	Pregame total 2.78 ~ Poisson total 2.78.

Arsenal vs Hull

20261107_HUL@ARS · Premier League

CLEAN risk 0 pred 1-0 (Arsenal)λ 1.98 / 0.82conf 0.72 good 41

Problems (0)

none

Lambda evolution (audit trail)

Stage	Home λ	Away λ
Pre-mismatch	2.281	1.009
Pre-calibration	2.172	1.062
Final	1.976	0.820

competition_calibration_scale: 0.85competition_observed_total_goals: 2.781quality_gap_applied: Truemismatch_score_pressure_applied: Truecompetitive_underdog_floor_applied: Falsestage_discount: 1.0

Scoreline distribution

Top scorelines	P
1-0	12.0%
2-0	11.9%
1-1	10.0%
2-1	9.8%
3-0	7.8%

Outcome — home 64.4% · draw 20.9% · away 14.7%

Markets — O2.5 53.0% · BTTS 48.3%

Passed checks (41)

Sev	Category	Rule	Message
good	integrity	`SCHEMA_KEYS_PRESENT`	All required sections present.
good	structure	`LINEUP_ELEVEN`	Arsenal: 11 starters.
good	structure	`FORMATION_VALID`	Arsenal: formation 4-2-3-1 valid.
good	structure	`LINEUP_ELEVEN`	Hull: 11 starters.
good	structure	`FORMATION_VALID`	Hull: formation 5-4-1 valid.
good	probability	`OUTCOME_SUMS_ONE`	outcome sums to 1.0000.
good	probability	`MARKETS_COMPLEMENTARY`	Over/Under and BTTS pairs each sum to 1.
good	probability	`SCORELINE_PROBS_NONNEG`	All scoreline probabilities within [0,1].
good	probability	`GRID_SUMS_ONE`	scoreline grid sums to 0.9960.
good	model_behavior	`GRID_REPRODUCIBLE`	Grid reproducible from lambdas (max cell diff 0.0006).
good	model_behavior	`MOST_LIKELY_IS_MODE`	Headline score 1-0 is the modal scoreline.
good	probability	`MLS_PROBABILITY_MATCHES`	Headline probability matches the grid.
good	model_behavior	`OUTCOME_MATCHES_GRID`	Outcome split matches the grid (max diff 0.0025).
good	model_behavior	`MARKETS_MATCH_GRID`	Markets match the grid (max diff 0.0040).
good	integrity	`WINNER_IS_VALID_TEAM`	predicted_winner 'Arsenal' is a participating side.
good	model_behavior	`WINNER_MATCHES_SCORE`	Winner agrees with headline score (Arsenal).
good	model_behavior	`WINNER_PROBABILITY_DIRECTION`	predicted_winner 'Arsenal' follows the published modal scoreline 1-0.
good	model_behavior	`LAMBDA_BOUNDS`	Lambdas in range (home 1.976, away 0.82).
good	provenance	`LAMBDA_FACTORS_PRESENT`	lambda_factors audit trail present.
good	model_behavior	`LAMBDA_CONSISTENCY`	Lambda identical across prediction / antagonist / factors.
good	model_behavior	`CALIBRATION_SCALE_BOUNDS`	Calibration scale 0.85 in range.
good	provenance	`CALIBRATION_RECORDED`	Calibration recorded with pre/post lambdas.
good	provenance	`XGBOOST_REASONING_PRESENT`	Match-level xgboost_reasoning present (XGBoost).
good	model_behavior	`LAMBDA_REASONING_CONSISTENCY`	Lambdas in xgboost_reasoning match final Poisson lambdas (1.976 / 0.82).
good	provenance	`FBREF_PRIORS_ACTIVE`	FBref team priors applied (blend weight 0.192, home E[lambda]=2.069, away E[lambda]=2.069).
good	provenance	`XGBOOST_PLAYER_REASONING`	All 22 starters carry full XGBoost / FBref reasoning.
good	integrity	`TEAM_GOALS_SUM`	Arsenal: player goals reconcile to team total (1).
good	integrity	`TEAM_GOALS_SUM`	Hull: player goals reconcile to team total (0).
good	structure	`POSSESSION_SUMS_100`	Possession sums to 100.0%.
good	integrity	`PLAYER_STAT_REALISM`	All 22 projected player lines pass realism checks.
good	structure	`EXACTLY_ONE_GOALKEEPER`	Arsenal: exactly one goalkeeper (David Raya).
good	integrity	`SHOT_MATH_INTEGRITY`	All 11 projected lines have consistent shot components.
good	integrity	`TEAM_SHOTS_CAP`	Arsenal: 15 projected shots inside the realistic envelope.
good	structure	`EXACTLY_ONE_GOALKEEPER`	Hull: exactly one goalkeeper (Konstantinos Tzolakis).
good	integrity	`SHOT_MATH_INTEGRITY`	All 11 projected lines have consistent shot components.
good	integrity	`TEAM_SHOTS_CAP`	Hull: 8 projected shots inside the realistic envelope.
good	provenance	`STANDING_AVAILABLE`	League-standing context available for both sides.
good	provenance	`RANKING_PROVENANCE`	22/22 starters carry a ranking source.
good	provenance	`DATA_DEPTH`	22/22 starters have adequate recent history.
good	provenance	`PREGAME_DIRECTION_AGREES`	Pregame favorite agrees with the model winner (Arsenal).
good	provenance	`PREGAME_TOTAL_CONSISTENT`	Pregame total 2.80 ~ Poisson total 2.80.

Valencia vs Real Madrid

20261107_RMA@VAL · LaLiga

CLEAN risk 0 pred 0-2 (Real Madrid)λ 0.94 / 2.26conf 0.73 good 41

Problems (0)

none

Lambda evolution (audit trail)

Stage	Home λ	Away λ
Pre-mismatch	1.077	2.678
Pre-calibration	0.859	2.463
Final	0.935	2.256

competition_calibration_scale: 0.85competition_observed_total_goals: 2.984quality_gap_applied: Truemismatch_score_pressure_applied: Truecompetitive_underdog_floor_applied: Falsestage_discount: 1.0

Scoreline distribution

Top scorelines	P
0-2	10.5%
1-2	9.8%
0-1	9.2%
1-1	8.7%
0-3	7.9%

Outcome — home 14.2% · draw 18.7% · away 67.2%

Markets — O2.5 61.8% · BTTS 54.4%

Passed checks (41)

Sev	Category	Rule	Message
good	integrity	`SCHEMA_KEYS_PRESENT`	All required sections present.
good	structure	`LINEUP_ELEVEN`	Valencia: 11 starters.
good	structure	`FORMATION_VALID`	Valencia: formation 4-4-2 valid.
good	structure	`LINEUP_ELEVEN`	Real Madrid: 11 starters.
good	structure	`FORMATION_VALID`	Real Madrid: formation 4-2-3-1 valid.
good	probability	`OUTCOME_SUMS_ONE`	outcome sums to 1.0000.
good	probability	`MARKETS_COMPLEMENTARY`	Over/Under and BTTS pairs each sum to 1.
good	probability	`SCORELINE_PROBS_NONNEG`	All scoreline probabilities within [0,1].
good	probability	`GRID_SUMS_ONE`	scoreline grid sums to 0.9968.
good	model_behavior	`GRID_REPRODUCIBLE`	Grid reproducible from lambdas (max cell diff 0.0004).
good	model_behavior	`MOST_LIKELY_IS_MODE`	Headline score 0-2 is the modal scoreline.
good	probability	`MLS_PROBABILITY_MATCHES`	Headline probability matches the grid.
good	model_behavior	`OUTCOME_MATCHES_GRID`	Outcome split matches the grid (max diff 0.0018).
good	model_behavior	`MARKETS_MATCH_GRID`	Markets match the grid (max diff 0.0033).
good	integrity	`WINNER_IS_VALID_TEAM`	predicted_winner 'Real Madrid' is a participating side.
good	model_behavior	`WINNER_MATCHES_SCORE`	Winner agrees with headline score (Real Madrid).
good	model_behavior	`WINNER_PROBABILITY_DIRECTION`	predicted_winner 'Real Madrid' follows the published modal scoreline 0-2.
good	model_behavior	`LAMBDA_BOUNDS`	Lambdas in range (home 0.935, away 2.256).
good	provenance	`LAMBDA_FACTORS_PRESENT`	lambda_factors audit trail present.
good	model_behavior	`LAMBDA_CONSISTENCY`	Lambda identical across prediction / antagonist / factors.
good	model_behavior	`CALIBRATION_SCALE_BOUNDS`	Calibration scale 0.85 in range.
good	provenance	`CALIBRATION_RECORDED`	Calibration recorded with pre/post lambdas.
good	provenance	`XGBOOST_REASONING_PRESENT`	Match-level xgboost_reasoning present (XGBoost).
good	model_behavior	`LAMBDA_REASONING_CONSISTENCY`	Lambdas in xgboost_reasoning match final Poisson lambdas (0.935 / 2.256).
good	provenance	`FBREF_PRIORS_ACTIVE`	FBref team priors applied (blend weight 0.228, home E[lambda]=0.822, away E[lambda]=0.733).
good	provenance	`XGBOOST_PLAYER_REASONING`	All 22 starters carry full XGBoost / FBref reasoning.
good	integrity	`TEAM_GOALS_SUM`	Valencia: player goals reconcile to team total (0).
good	integrity	`TEAM_GOALS_SUM`	Real Madrid: player goals reconcile to team total (2).
good	structure	`POSSESSION_SUMS_100`	Possession sums to 100.0%.
good	integrity	`PLAYER_STAT_REALISM`	All 22 projected player lines pass realism checks.
good	structure	`EXACTLY_ONE_GOALKEEPER`	Valencia: exactly one goalkeeper (Stole Dimitrievski).
good	integrity	`SHOT_MATH_INTEGRITY`	All 11 projected lines have consistent shot components.
good	integrity	`TEAM_SHOTS_CAP`	Valencia: 10 projected shots inside the realistic envelope.
good	structure	`EXACTLY_ONE_GOALKEEPER`	Real Madrid: exactly one goalkeeper (Thibaut Courtois).
good	integrity	`SHOT_MATH_INTEGRITY`	All 11 projected lines have consistent shot components.
good	integrity	`TEAM_SHOTS_CAP`	Real Madrid: 15 projected shots inside the realistic envelope.
good	provenance	`STANDING_AVAILABLE`	League-standing context available for both sides.
good	provenance	`RANKING_PROVENANCE`	22/22 starters carry a ranking source.
good	provenance	`DATA_DEPTH`	22/22 starters have adequate recent history.
good	provenance	`PREGAME_DIRECTION_AGREES`	Pregame favorite agrees with the model winner (Real Madrid).
good	provenance	`PREGAME_TOTAL_CONSISTENT`	Pregame total 3.19 ~ Poisson total 3.19.

Rule catalogue

Rule	Description	Triggered
`SCHEMA_KEYS_PRESENT`	All required top-level sections exist in the artifact.	ok
`LINEUP_ELEVEN`	Each side fields exactly 11 starters.	ok
`FORMATION_VALID`	Formation string parses and its outfield lines sum to 10.	ok
`POSSESSION_SUMS_100`	Estimated possession of both teams sums to ~100%.	ok
`TEAM_GOALS_SUM`	Players' projected integer goals sum to the team's headline score.	ok
`TEAM_TOTALS_SCORE_MATCH`	team_totals.projected_goals equals the headline score component.	ok
`TEAM_EG_LAMBDA_MATCH`	team_totals.expected_goals matches the team's Poisson lambda.	ok
`PLAYER_STAT_REALISM`	Projected player lines are internally consistent (xG<=shots, accurate<=total passes, minutes/rating in range).	ok
`EXACTLY_ONE_GOALKEEPER`	Each starting XI fields exactly one goalkeeper.	ok
`SHOT_MATH_INTEGRITY`	Shot components are physically consistent (on target <= total, on+off <= total; blocked shots cannot be negative).	ok
`PLAYER_MINUTES_LEAGUE_CAP`	No player projects more minutes than the competition clock allows (90 + stoppage, or extra time in cups).	ok
`TEAM_SHOTS_CAP`	Team projected shots stay inside the realistic historical envelope (~35).	ok
`OUTCOME_SUMS_ONE`	home_win + draw + away_win sums to 1.	ok
`MARKETS_COMPLEMENTARY`	Over/Under and BTTS pairs each sum to 1.	ok
`GRID_SUMS_ONE`	The scoreline probability grid sums to ~1.	ok
`SCORELINE_PROBS_NONNEG`	Every scoreline probability is a valid [0,1] value.	ok
`GRID_REPRODUCIBLE`	The reported scoreline grid is reproducible from the lambdas.	ok
`MOST_LIKELY_IS_MODE`	The headline most-likely score is the distribution's modal scoreline.	5 problems
`MLS_PROBABILITY_MATCHES`	most_likely_score_probability equals the grid value of that score.	ok
`OUTCOME_MATCHES_GRID`	The reported win/draw/loss split is derivable from the grid.	ok
`MARKETS_MATCH_GRID`	The reported Over/Under and BTTS are derivable from the grid.	ok
`WINNER_MATCHES_SCORE`	predicted_winner agrees with the headline score direction.	ok
`WINNER_PROBABILITY_DIRECTION`	predicted_winner derives from the published modal scoreline; diverging from the 1X2 favorite is expected.	ok
`WINNER_IS_VALID_TEAM`	predicted_winner names a participating team (or Draw).	ok
`MODAL_OUTCOME_IS_DRAW`	Draw is the single largest outcome bucket while a team is named.	ok
`LAMBDA_BOUNDS`	Both lambdas fall inside the engine's [0.55, 5.00] envelope.	ok
`LAMBDA_CONSISTENCY`	The lambda is identical across prediction / antagonist / lambda_factors.	ok
`LAMBDA_FACTORS_PRESENT`	The lambda_factors decomposition (audit trail) is present.	ok
`CALIBRATION_SCALE_BOUNDS`	competition_calibration_scale stays within [0.85, 1.35].	ok
`CALIBRATION_RECORDED`	When calibration ran, the pre-calibration lambdas are recorded.	ok
`STANDING_AVAILABLE`	League-standing context is available for a domestic fixture.	ok
`RANKING_PROVENANCE`	Player ranking/quality signals carry a recognised source.	ok
`DATA_DEPTH`	Starters have enough recent games to model rather than synthesise.	ok
`FBREF_PRIORS_ACTIVE`	FBref season-prior files exist so that branch is not silently inert.	3 problems
`XGBOOST_REASONING_PRESENT`	Match-level xgboost_reasoning payload is present with full tracing pipeline.	ok
`XGBOOST_PLAYER_REASONING`	Starters have xgboost_reasoning metadata tracking feature contributions and FBref priors.	ok
`LAMBDA_REASONING_CONSISTENCY`	Lambdas reported in xgboost_reasoning match the final Poisson lambdas.	ok
`PREGAME_DIRECTION_AGREES`	The pregame fair-line favorite agrees with the model winner.	ok
`PREGAME_TOTAL_CONSISTENT`	The pregame expected total is close to the sum of the lambdas.	ok
`RESULT_WINNER_HIT`	The predicted winner matched the real result.	ok
`RESULT_EXACT_SCORE_HIT`	The headline score matched the real scoreline exactly.	ok
`RESULT_OU_HIT`	The Over/Under 2.5 lean matched reality.	ok
`RESULT_BTTS_HIT`	The BTTS lean matched reality.	ok
`RESULT_CONFIDENT_MISS`	A high-confidence prediction did not reach the real outcome.	ok
`OUTCOME_BRIER`	Brier score of the win/draw/loss probabilities vs the real result.	ok

Generated 2026-11-03 14:38:27 UTC · Soccer prediction reporting