Soccer prediction system deep audit

Slate 20261108 · immutable forensic review of 10 match prediction artifact(s)

Executive conclusion

In 6 match(es) the headline score is not the distribution's modal scoreline (a breach of the published-mode contract) — see the MOST_LIKELY_IS_MODE findings.

At a glance

10matches audited

0critical

0errors

8warnings

0grid non-reproducible

6headline != modal

0winner disagreements

0lambda inconsistencies

0with real result

-winner hit-rate

-decisive hit-rate

20%predicted draws

-actual draws

0confident misses

-mean Brier

Matches

Man Utd vs Aston Villa

20261108_AVL@MUN · Premier League

WARNINGS risk 20 pred 1-0 (Man Utd)λ 1.70 / 1.08conf 0.68 warning 2 good 39

Problems (2)

Sev	Category	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
warning	model_behavior	`MOST_LIKELY_IS_MODE`	Headline score is not the modal scoreline (modal=1-1 (p=0.1149), shown=1-0 (p=0.1043)); the published exact score must be the grid mode, and the winning scenario belongs in the labelled most_likely_winning_score_home/away fields. Both lean Man Utd.	1-0	1-1
warning	provenance	`FBREF_PRIORS_ACTIVE`	FBref dataset files not found; team priors inactive.

Lambda evolution (audit trail)

Stage	Home λ	Away λ
Pre-competitive-floor	1.779	1.022
Pre-calibration	1.573	1.085
Final	1.698	1.083

competition_calibration_scale: 0.993competition_observed_total_goals: 2.781quality_gap_applied: Truemismatch_score_pressure_applied: Falsecompetitive_underdog_floor_applied: Falsestage_discount: 1.0

Scoreline distribution

Top scorelines	P
1-1	11.5%
1-0	10.4%
2-1	9.7%
2-0	8.9%
0-1	6.6%

Outcome — home 51.7% · draw 24.2% · away 24.1%

Markets — O2.5 52.6% · BTTS 54.1%

Passed checks (39)

Sev	Category	Rule	Message
good	integrity	`SCHEMA_KEYS_PRESENT`	All required sections present.
good	structure	`LINEUP_ELEVEN`	Man Utd: 11 starters.
good	structure	`FORMATION_VALID`	Man Utd: formation 4-2-3-1 valid.
good	structure	`LINEUP_ELEVEN`	Aston Villa: 11 starters.
good	structure	`FORMATION_VALID`	Aston Villa: formation 4-2-3-1 valid.
good	probability	`OUTCOME_SUMS_ONE`	outcome sums to 1.0001.
good	probability	`MARKETS_COMPLEMENTARY`	Over/Under and BTTS pairs each sum to 1.
good	probability	`SCORELINE_PROBS_NONNEG`	All scoreline probabilities within [0,1].
good	probability	`GRID_SUMS_ONE`	scoreline grid sums to 0.9968.
good	model_behavior	`GRID_REPRODUCIBLE`	Grid reproducible from lambdas (max cell diff 0.0009).
good	probability	`MLS_PROBABILITY_MATCHES`	Headline probability matches the grid.
good	model_behavior	`OUTCOME_MATCHES_GRID`	Outcome split matches the grid (max diff 0.0019).
good	model_behavior	`MARKETS_MATCH_GRID`	Markets match the grid (max diff 0.0031).
good	integrity	`WINNER_IS_VALID_TEAM`	predicted_winner 'Man Utd' is a participating side.
good	model_behavior	`WINNER_MATCHES_SCORE`	Winner agrees with headline score (Man Utd).
good	model_behavior	`WINNER_PROBABILITY_DIRECTION`	predicted_winner 'Man Utd' follows the published modal scoreline 1-0.
good	model_behavior	`LAMBDA_BOUNDS`	Lambdas in range (home 1.698, away 1.083).
good	provenance	`LAMBDA_FACTORS_PRESENT`	lambda_factors audit trail present.
good	model_behavior	`LAMBDA_CONSISTENCY`	Lambda identical across prediction / antagonist / factors.
good	model_behavior	`CALIBRATION_SCALE_BOUNDS`	Calibration scale 0.993 in range.
good	provenance	`CALIBRATION_RECORDED`	Calibration recorded with pre/post lambdas.
good	provenance	`XGBOOST_REASONING_PRESENT`	Match-level xgboost_reasoning present (XGBoost).
good	model_behavior	`LAMBDA_REASONING_CONSISTENCY`	Lambdas in xgboost_reasoning match final Poisson lambdas (1.698 / 1.083).
good	provenance	`XGBOOST_PLAYER_REASONING`	All 22 starters carry full XGBoost / FBref reasoning.
good	integrity	`TEAM_GOALS_SUM`	Man Utd: player goals reconcile to team total (1).
good	integrity	`TEAM_GOALS_SUM`	Aston Villa: player goals reconcile to team total (0).
good	structure	`POSSESSION_SUMS_100`	Possession sums to 100.0%.
good	integrity	`PLAYER_STAT_REALISM`	All 22 projected player lines pass realism checks.
good	structure	`EXACTLY_ONE_GOALKEEPER`	Man Utd: exactly one goalkeeper (Senne Lammens).
good	integrity	`SHOT_MATH_INTEGRITY`	All 11 projected lines have consistent shot components.
good	integrity	`TEAM_SHOTS_CAP`	Man Utd: 16 projected shots inside the realistic envelope.
good	structure	`EXACTLY_ONE_GOALKEEPER`	Aston Villa: exactly one goalkeeper (Zion Suzuki).
good	integrity	`SHOT_MATH_INTEGRITY`	All 11 projected lines have consistent shot components.
good	integrity	`TEAM_SHOTS_CAP`	Aston Villa: 14 projected shots inside the realistic envelope.
good	provenance	`STANDING_AVAILABLE`	League-standing context available for both sides.
good	provenance	`RANKING_PROVENANCE`	22/22 starters carry a ranking source.
good	provenance	`DATA_DEPTH`	22/22 starters have adequate recent history.
good	provenance	`PREGAME_DIRECTION_AGREES`	Pregame favorite agrees with the model winner (Man Utd).
good	provenance	`PREGAME_TOTAL_CONSISTENT`	Pregame total 2.78 ~ Poisson total 2.78.

Elche vs Real Betis

20261108_BET@ELC · LaLiga

WARNINGS risk 10 pred 2-1 (Elche)λ 1.57 / 1.41conf 0.65 warning 1 good 40

Problems (1)

Sev	Category	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
warning	model_behavior	`MOST_LIKELY_IS_MODE`	Headline score is not the modal scoreline (modal=1-1 (p=0.1131), shown=2-1 (p=0.0884)); the published exact score must be the grid mode, and the winning scenario belongs in the labelled most_likely_winning_score_home/away fields. Both lean Elche.	2-1	1-1

Lambda evolution (audit trail)

Stage	Home λ	Away λ
Pre-competitive-floor	1.251	1.291
Pre-calibration	1.171	1.294
Final	1.574	1.410

competition_calibration_scale: 1.174competition_observed_total_goals: 2.984quality_gap_applied: Truemismatch_score_pressure_applied: Falsecompetitive_underdog_floor_applied: Falsestage_discount: 1.0

Scoreline distribution

Top scorelines	P
1-1	11.3%
2-1	8.8%
1-2	7.9%
1-0	7.9%
0-1	7.0%

Outcome — home 41.4% · draw 24.5% · away 34.2%

Markets — O2.5 57.3% · BTTS 60.0%

Passed checks (40)

Sev	Category	Rule	Message
good	integrity	`SCHEMA_KEYS_PRESENT`	All required sections present.
good	structure	`LINEUP_ELEVEN`	Elche: 11 starters.
good	structure	`FORMATION_VALID`	Elche: formation 4-3-3 valid.
good	structure	`LINEUP_ELEVEN`	Real Betis: 11 starters.
good	structure	`FORMATION_VALID`	Real Betis: formation 4-2-3-1 valid.
good	probability	`OUTCOME_SUMS_ONE`	outcome sums to 1.0000.
good	probability	`MARKETS_COMPLEMENTARY`	Over/Under and BTTS pairs each sum to 1.
good	probability	`SCORELINE_PROBS_NONNEG`	All scoreline probabilities within [0,1].
good	probability	`GRID_SUMS_ONE`	scoreline grid sums to 0.9967.
good	model_behavior	`GRID_REPRODUCIBLE`	Grid reproducible from lambdas (max cell diff 0.0008).
good	probability	`MLS_PROBABILITY_MATCHES`	Headline probability matches the grid.
good	model_behavior	`OUTCOME_MATCHES_GRID`	Outcome split matches the grid (max diff 0.0018).
good	model_behavior	`MARKETS_MATCH_GRID`	Markets match the grid (max diff 0.0033).
good	integrity	`WINNER_IS_VALID_TEAM`	predicted_winner 'Elche' is a participating side.
good	model_behavior	`WINNER_MATCHES_SCORE`	Winner agrees with headline score (Elche).
good	model_behavior	`WINNER_PROBABILITY_DIRECTION`	predicted_winner 'Elche' follows the published modal scoreline 2-1.
good	model_behavior	`LAMBDA_BOUNDS`	Lambdas in range (home 1.574, away 1.41).
good	provenance	`LAMBDA_FACTORS_PRESENT`	lambda_factors audit trail present.
good	model_behavior	`LAMBDA_CONSISTENCY`	Lambda identical across prediction / antagonist / factors.
good	model_behavior	`CALIBRATION_SCALE_BOUNDS`	Calibration scale 1.174 in range.
good	provenance	`CALIBRATION_RECORDED`	Calibration recorded with pre/post lambdas.
good	provenance	`XGBOOST_REASONING_PRESENT`	Match-level xgboost_reasoning present (XGBoost).
good	model_behavior	`LAMBDA_REASONING_CONSISTENCY`	Lambdas in xgboost_reasoning match final Poisson lambdas (1.574 / 1.41).
good	provenance	`FBREF_PRIORS_ACTIVE`	FBref team priors applied (blend weight 0.228, home E[lambda]=0.985, away E[lambda]=0.988).
good	provenance	`XGBOOST_PLAYER_REASONING`	All 22 starters carry full XGBoost / FBref reasoning.
good	integrity	`TEAM_GOALS_SUM`	Elche: player goals reconcile to team total (2).
good	integrity	`TEAM_GOALS_SUM`	Real Betis: player goals reconcile to team total (1).
good	structure	`POSSESSION_SUMS_100`	Possession sums to 100.0%.
good	integrity	`PLAYER_STAT_REALISM`	All 22 projected player lines pass realism checks.
good	structure	`EXACTLY_ONE_GOALKEEPER`	Elche: exactly one goalkeeper (Matías Dituro).
good	integrity	`SHOT_MATH_INTEGRITY`	All 11 projected lines have consistent shot components.
good	integrity	`TEAM_SHOTS_CAP`	Elche: 11 projected shots inside the realistic envelope.
good	structure	`EXACTLY_ONE_GOALKEEPER`	Real Betis: exactly one goalkeeper (Álvaro Valles).
good	integrity	`SHOT_MATH_INTEGRITY`	All 11 projected lines have consistent shot components.
good	integrity	`TEAM_SHOTS_CAP`	Real Betis: 14 projected shots inside the realistic envelope.
good	provenance	`STANDING_AVAILABLE`	League-standing context available for both sides.
good	provenance	`RANKING_PROVENANCE`	22/22 starters carry a ranking source.
good	provenance	`DATA_DEPTH`	22/22 starters have adequate recent history.
good	provenance	`PREGAME_DIRECTION_AGREES`	Pregame favorite agrees with the model winner (Elche).
good	provenance	`PREGAME_TOTAL_CONSISTENT`	Pregame total 2.98 ~ Poisson total 2.98.

Brighton vs Brentford

20261108_BRE@BHA · Premier League

WARNINGS risk 10 pred 2-1 (Brighton)λ 1.65 / 1.47conf 0.66 warning 1 good 40

Problems (1)

Sev	Category	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
warning	model_behavior	`MOST_LIKELY_IS_MODE`	Headline score is not the modal scoreline (modal=1-1 (p=0.1079), shown=2-1 (p=0.0883)); the published exact score must be the grid mode, and the winning scenario belongs in the labelled most_likely_winning_score_home/away fields. Both lean Brighton.	2-1	1-1

Lambda evolution (audit trail)

Stage	Home λ	Away λ
Pre-competitive-floor	1.930	1.742
Pre-calibration	1.878	1.462
Final	1.649	1.472

competition_calibration_scale: 0.85competition_observed_total_goals: 2.781quality_gap_applied: Falsemismatch_score_pressure_applied: Falsecompetitive_underdog_floor_applied: Falsestage_discount: 1.0

Scoreline distribution

Top scorelines	P
1-1	10.8%
2-1	8.8%
1-2	7.9%
1-0	7.2%
2-2	6.5%

Outcome — home 41.9% · draw 23.8% · away 34.3%

Markets — O2.5 60.3% · BTTS 62.3%

Passed checks (40)

Sev	Category	Rule	Message
good	integrity	`SCHEMA_KEYS_PRESENT`	All required sections present.
good	structure	`LINEUP_ELEVEN`	Brighton: 11 starters.
good	structure	`FORMATION_VALID`	Brighton: formation 4-2-3-1 valid.
good	structure	`LINEUP_ELEVEN`	Brentford: 11 starters.
good	structure	`FORMATION_VALID`	Brentford: formation 4-2-3-1 valid.
good	probability	`OUTCOME_SUMS_ONE`	outcome sums to 1.0000.
good	probability	`MARKETS_COMPLEMENTARY`	Over/Under and BTTS pairs each sum to 1.
good	probability	`SCORELINE_PROBS_NONNEG`	All scoreline probabilities within [0,1].
good	probability	`GRID_SUMS_ONE`	scoreline grid sums to 0.9962.
good	model_behavior	`GRID_REPRODUCIBLE`	Grid reproducible from lambdas (max cell diff 0.0008).
good	probability	`MLS_PROBABILITY_MATCHES`	Headline probability matches the grid.
good	model_behavior	`OUTCOME_MATCHES_GRID`	Outcome split matches the grid (max diff 0.0019).
good	model_behavior	`MARKETS_MATCH_GRID`	Markets match the grid (max diff 0.0038).
good	integrity	`WINNER_IS_VALID_TEAM`	predicted_winner 'Brighton' is a participating side.
good	model_behavior	`WINNER_MATCHES_SCORE`	Winner agrees with headline score (Brighton).
good	model_behavior	`WINNER_PROBABILITY_DIRECTION`	predicted_winner 'Brighton' follows the published modal scoreline 2-1.
good	model_behavior	`LAMBDA_BOUNDS`	Lambdas in range (home 1.649, away 1.472).
good	provenance	`LAMBDA_FACTORS_PRESENT`	lambda_factors audit trail present.
good	model_behavior	`LAMBDA_CONSISTENCY`	Lambda identical across prediction / antagonist / factors.
good	model_behavior	`CALIBRATION_SCALE_BOUNDS`	Calibration scale 0.85 in range.
good	provenance	`CALIBRATION_RECORDED`	Calibration recorded with pre/post lambdas.
good	provenance	`XGBOOST_REASONING_PRESENT`	Match-level xgboost_reasoning present (XGBoost).
good	model_behavior	`LAMBDA_REASONING_CONSISTENCY`	Lambdas in xgboost_reasoning match final Poisson lambdas (1.649 / 1.472).
good	provenance	`FBREF_PRIORS_ACTIVE`	FBref team priors applied (blend weight 0.192, home E[lambda]=3.448, away E[lambda]=3.5).
good	provenance	`XGBOOST_PLAYER_REASONING`	All 22 starters carry full XGBoost / FBref reasoning.
good	integrity	`TEAM_GOALS_SUM`	Brighton: player goals reconcile to team total (2).
good	integrity	`TEAM_GOALS_SUM`	Brentford: player goals reconcile to team total (1).
good	structure	`POSSESSION_SUMS_100`	Possession sums to 100.0%.
good	integrity	`PLAYER_STAT_REALISM`	All 22 projected player lines pass realism checks.
good	structure	`EXACTLY_ONE_GOALKEEPER`	Brighton: exactly one goalkeeper (Bart Verbruggen).
good	integrity	`SHOT_MATH_INTEGRITY`	All 11 projected lines have consistent shot components.
good	integrity	`TEAM_SHOTS_CAP`	Brighton: 16 projected shots inside the realistic envelope.
good	structure	`EXACTLY_ONE_GOALKEEPER`	Brentford: exactly one goalkeeper (Caoimhin Kelleher).
good	integrity	`SHOT_MATH_INTEGRITY`	All 11 projected lines have consistent shot components.
good	integrity	`TEAM_SHOTS_CAP`	Brentford: 12 projected shots inside the realistic envelope.
good	provenance	`STANDING_AVAILABLE`	League-standing context available for both sides.
good	provenance	`RANKING_PROVENANCE`	22/22 starters carry a ranking source.
good	provenance	`DATA_DEPTH`	22/22 starters have adequate recent history.
good	provenance	`PREGAME_DIRECTION_AGREES`	Pregame favorite agrees with the model winner (Brighton).
good	provenance	`PREGAME_TOTAL_CONSISTENT`	Pregame total 3.12 ~ Poisson total 3.12.

Sunderland vs Chelsea

20261108_CHE@SUN · Premier League

WARNINGS risk 10 pred 1-2 (Chelsea)λ 1.20 / 1.73conf 0.68 warning 1 good 40

Problems (1)

Sev	Category	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
warning	model_behavior	`MOST_LIKELY_IS_MODE`	Headline score is not the modal scoreline (modal=1-1 (p=0.1114), shown=1-2 (p=0.0959)); the published exact score must be the grid mode, and the winning scenario belongs in the labelled most_likely_winning_score_home/away fields. Both lean Chelsea.	1-2	1-1

Lambda evolution (audit trail)

Stage	Home λ	Away λ
Pre-mismatch	1.356	2.096
Pre-competitive-floor	1.327	2.268
Pre-calibration	1.388	1.919
Final	1.201	1.733

competition_calibration_scale: 0.85competition_observed_total_goals: 2.781quality_gap_applied: Truemismatch_score_pressure_applied: Truecompetitive_underdog_floor_applied: Falsestage_discount: 1.0

Scoreline distribution

Top scorelines	P
1-1	11.1%
1-2	9.6%
0-1	9.1%
0-2	8.0%
2-1	6.7%

Outcome — home 26.4% · draw 23.8% · away 49.8%

Markets — O2.5 56.2% · BTTS 57.6%

Passed checks (40)

Sev	Category	Rule	Message
good	integrity	`SCHEMA_KEYS_PRESENT`	All required sections present.
good	structure	`LINEUP_ELEVEN`	Sunderland: 11 starters.
good	structure	`FORMATION_VALID`	Sunderland: formation 4-2-3-1 valid.
good	structure	`LINEUP_ELEVEN`	Chelsea: 11 starters.
good	structure	`FORMATION_VALID`	Chelsea: formation 4-2-3-1 valid.
good	probability	`OUTCOME_SUMS_ONE`	outcome sums to 1.0000.
good	probability	`MARKETS_COMPLEMENTARY`	Over/Under and BTTS pairs each sum to 1.
good	probability	`SCORELINE_PROBS_NONNEG`	All scoreline probabilities within [0,1].
good	probability	`GRID_SUMS_ONE`	scoreline grid sums to 0.9962.
good	model_behavior	`GRID_REPRODUCIBLE`	Grid reproducible from lambdas (max cell diff 0.0008).
good	probability	`MLS_PROBABILITY_MATCHES`	Headline probability matches the grid.
good	model_behavior	`OUTCOME_MATCHES_GRID`	Outcome split matches the grid (max diff 0.0018).
good	model_behavior	`MARKETS_MATCH_GRID`	Markets match the grid (max diff 0.0038).
good	integrity	`WINNER_IS_VALID_TEAM`	predicted_winner 'Chelsea' is a participating side.
good	model_behavior	`WINNER_MATCHES_SCORE`	Winner agrees with headline score (Chelsea).
good	model_behavior	`WINNER_PROBABILITY_DIRECTION`	predicted_winner 'Chelsea' follows the published modal scoreline 1-2.
good	model_behavior	`LAMBDA_BOUNDS`	Lambdas in range (home 1.201, away 1.733).
good	provenance	`LAMBDA_FACTORS_PRESENT`	lambda_factors audit trail present.
good	model_behavior	`LAMBDA_CONSISTENCY`	Lambda identical across prediction / antagonist / factors.
good	model_behavior	`CALIBRATION_SCALE_BOUNDS`	Calibration scale 0.85 in range.
good	provenance	`CALIBRATION_RECORDED`	Calibration recorded with pre/post lambdas.
good	provenance	`XGBOOST_REASONING_PRESENT`	Match-level xgboost_reasoning present (XGBoost).
good	model_behavior	`LAMBDA_REASONING_CONSISTENCY`	Lambdas in xgboost_reasoning match final Poisson lambdas (1.201 / 1.733).
good	provenance	`FBREF_PRIORS_ACTIVE`	FBref team priors applied (blend weight 0.192, home E[lambda]=2.414, away E[lambda]=2.414).
good	provenance	`XGBOOST_PLAYER_REASONING`	All 22 starters carry full XGBoost / FBref reasoning.
good	integrity	`TEAM_GOALS_SUM`	Sunderland: player goals reconcile to team total (1).
good	integrity	`TEAM_GOALS_SUM`	Chelsea: player goals reconcile to team total (2).
good	structure	`POSSESSION_SUMS_100`	Possession sums to 100.0%.
good	integrity	`PLAYER_STAT_REALISM`	All 22 projected player lines pass realism checks.
good	structure	`EXACTLY_ONE_GOALKEEPER`	Sunderland: exactly one goalkeeper (Robin Roefs).
good	integrity	`SHOT_MATH_INTEGRITY`	All 11 projected lines have consistent shot components.
good	integrity	`TEAM_SHOTS_CAP`	Sunderland: 12 projected shots inside the realistic envelope.
good	structure	`EXACTLY_ONE_GOALKEEPER`	Chelsea: exactly one goalkeeper (Emiliano Martínez).
good	integrity	`SHOT_MATH_INTEGRITY`	All 11 projected lines have consistent shot components.
good	integrity	`TEAM_SHOTS_CAP`	Chelsea: 15 projected shots inside the realistic envelope.
good	provenance	`STANDING_AVAILABLE`	League-standing context available for both sides.
good	provenance	`RANKING_PROVENANCE`	22/22 starters carry a ranking source.
good	provenance	`DATA_DEPTH`	21/22 starters have adequate recent history.
good	provenance	`PREGAME_DIRECTION_AGREES`	Pregame favorite agrees with the model winner (Chelsea).
good	provenance	`PREGAME_TOTAL_CONSISTENT`	Pregame total 2.93 ~ Poisson total 2.93.

Celta vs Levante

20261108_LEV@CEL · LaLiga

WARNINGS risk 10 pred 2-1 (Celta)λ 1.76 / 1.22conf 0.68 warning 1 good 40

Problems (1)

Sev	Category	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
warning	model_behavior	`MOST_LIKELY_IS_MODE`	Headline score is not the modal scoreline (modal=1-1 (p=0.1096), shown=2-1 (p=0.0960)); the published exact score must be the grid mode, and the winning scenario belongs in the labelled most_likely_winning_score_home/away fields. Both lean Celta.	2-1	1-1

Lambda evolution (audit trail)

Stage	Home λ	Away λ
Pre-competitive-floor	1.325	0.922
Pre-calibration	1.366	0.838
Final	1.764	1.220

competition_calibration_scale: 1.328competition_observed_total_goals: 2.984quality_gap_applied: Truemismatch_score_pressure_applied: Falsecompetitive_underdog_floor_applied: Falsestage_discount: 1.0

Scoreline distribution

Top scorelines	P
1-1	11.0%
2-1	9.6%
1-0	8.8%
2-0	7.9%
1-2	6.6%

Outcome — home 50.1% · draw 23.5% · away 26.4%

Markets — O2.5 57.3% · BTTS 58.5%

Passed checks (40)

Sev	Category	Rule	Message
good	integrity	`SCHEMA_KEYS_PRESENT`	All required sections present.
good	structure	`LINEUP_ELEVEN`	Celta: 11 starters.
good	structure	`FORMATION_VALID`	Celta: formation 3-4-3 valid.
good	structure	`LINEUP_ELEVEN`	Levante: 11 starters.
good	structure	`FORMATION_VALID`	Levante: formation 4-4-2 valid.
good	probability	`OUTCOME_SUMS_ONE`	outcome sums to 1.0000.
good	probability	`MARKETS_COMPLEMENTARY`	Over/Under and BTTS pairs each sum to 1.
good	probability	`SCORELINE_PROBS_NONNEG`	All scoreline probabilities within [0,1].
good	probability	`GRID_SUMS_ONE`	scoreline grid sums to 0.9964.
good	model_behavior	`GRID_REPRODUCIBLE`	Grid reproducible from lambdas (max cell diff 0.0007).
good	probability	`MLS_PROBABILITY_MATCHES`	Headline probability matches the grid.
good	model_behavior	`OUTCOME_MATCHES_GRID`	Outcome split matches the grid (max diff 0.0022).
good	model_behavior	`MARKETS_MATCH_GRID`	Markets match the grid (max diff 0.0035).
good	integrity	`WINNER_IS_VALID_TEAM`	predicted_winner 'Celta' is a participating side.
good	model_behavior	`WINNER_MATCHES_SCORE`	Winner agrees with headline score (Celta).
good	model_behavior	`WINNER_PROBABILITY_DIRECTION`	predicted_winner 'Celta' follows the published modal scoreline 2-1.
good	model_behavior	`LAMBDA_BOUNDS`	Lambdas in range (home 1.764, away 1.22).
good	provenance	`LAMBDA_FACTORS_PRESENT`	lambda_factors audit trail present.
good	model_behavior	`LAMBDA_CONSISTENCY`	Lambda identical across prediction / antagonist / factors.
good	model_behavior	`CALIBRATION_SCALE_BOUNDS`	Calibration scale 1.328 in range.
good	provenance	`CALIBRATION_RECORDED`	Calibration recorded with pre/post lambdas.
good	provenance	`XGBOOST_REASONING_PRESENT`	Match-level xgboost_reasoning present (XGBoost).
good	model_behavior	`LAMBDA_REASONING_CONSISTENCY`	Lambdas in xgboost_reasoning match final Poisson lambdas (1.764 / 1.22).
good	provenance	`FBREF_PRIORS_ACTIVE`	FBref team priors applied (blend weight 0.228, home E[lambda]=0.309, away E[lambda]=0.309).
good	provenance	`XGBOOST_PLAYER_REASONING`	All 22 starters carry full XGBoost / FBref reasoning.
good	integrity	`TEAM_GOALS_SUM`	Celta: player goals reconcile to team total (2).
good	integrity	`TEAM_GOALS_SUM`	Levante: player goals reconcile to team total (1).
good	structure	`POSSESSION_SUMS_100`	Possession sums to 100.0%.
good	integrity	`PLAYER_STAT_REALISM`	All 22 projected player lines pass realism checks.
good	structure	`EXACTLY_ONE_GOALKEEPER`	Celta: exactly one goalkeeper (Ionuț Radu).
good	integrity	`SHOT_MATH_INTEGRITY`	All 11 projected lines have consistent shot components.
good	integrity	`TEAM_SHOTS_CAP`	Celta: 12 projected shots inside the realistic envelope.
good	structure	`EXACTLY_ONE_GOALKEEPER`	Levante: exactly one goalkeeper (Mathew Ryan).
good	integrity	`SHOT_MATH_INTEGRITY`	All 11 projected lines have consistent shot components.
good	integrity	`TEAM_SHOTS_CAP`	Levante: 11 projected shots inside the realistic envelope.
good	provenance	`STANDING_AVAILABLE`	League-standing context available for both sides.
good	provenance	`RANKING_PROVENANCE`	22/22 starters carry a ranking source.
good	provenance	`DATA_DEPTH`	22/22 starters have adequate recent history.
good	provenance	`PREGAME_DIRECTION_AGREES`	Pregame favorite agrees with the model winner (Celta).
good	provenance	`PREGAME_TOTAL_CONSISTENT`	Pregame total 2.98 ~ Poisson total 2.98.

Crystal Palace vs Liverpool

20261108_LIV@CRY · Premier League

WARNINGS risk 10 pred 1-1 (Draw)λ 1.36 / 1.42conf 0.65 warning 1 good 38

Problems (1)

Sev	Category	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
warning	provenance	`FBREF_PRIORS_ACTIVE`	FBref dataset files not found; team priors inactive.

Lambda evolution (audit trail)

Stage	Home λ	Away λ
Pre-competitive-floor	1.461	1.667
Pre-calibration	1.209	1.646
Final	1.359	1.422

competition_calibration_scale: 0.889competition_observed_total_goals: 2.781quality_gap_applied: Truemismatch_score_pressure_applied: Falsecompetitive_underdog_floor_applied: Falsestage_discount: 1.0

Scoreline distribution

Top scorelines	P
1-1	12.1%
0-1	8.7%
1-2	8.5%
1-0	8.3%
2-1	8.1%

Outcome — home 35.8% · draw 25.6% · away 38.6%

Markets — O2.5 52.6% · BTTS 56.5%

Passed checks (38)

Sev	Category	Rule	Message
good	integrity	`SCHEMA_KEYS_PRESENT`	All required sections present.
good	structure	`LINEUP_ELEVEN`	Crystal Palace: 11 starters.
good	structure	`FORMATION_VALID`	Crystal Palace: formation 3-4-2-1 valid.
good	structure	`LINEUP_ELEVEN`	Liverpool: 11 starters.
good	structure	`FORMATION_VALID`	Liverpool: formation 4-2-3-1 valid.
good	probability	`OUTCOME_SUMS_ONE`	outcome sums to 1.0000.
good	probability	`MARKETS_COMPLEMENTARY`	Over/Under and BTTS pairs each sum to 1.
good	probability	`SCORELINE_PROBS_NONNEG`	All scoreline probabilities within [0,1].
good	probability	`GRID_SUMS_ONE`	scoreline grid sums to 0.9971.
good	model_behavior	`GRID_REPRODUCIBLE`	Grid reproducible from lambdas (max cell diff 0.0011).
good	model_behavior	`MOST_LIKELY_IS_MODE`	Headline score 1-1 is the modal scoreline.
good	probability	`MLS_PROBABILITY_MATCHES`	Headline probability matches the grid.
good	model_behavior	`OUTCOME_MATCHES_GRID`	Outcome split matches the grid (max diff 0.0015).
good	model_behavior	`MARKETS_MATCH_GRID`	Markets match the grid (max diff 0.0029).
good	integrity	`WINNER_IS_VALID_TEAM`	predicted_winner 'Draw' is a participating side.
good	model_behavior	`WINNER_PROBABILITY_DIRECTION`	predicted_winner 'Draw' follows the published modal scoreline 1-1. It differs from the calibrated 1X2 favorite 'Liverpool', which is published separately and does not decide the call.
good	model_behavior	`LAMBDA_BOUNDS`	Lambdas in range (home 1.359, away 1.422).
good	provenance	`LAMBDA_FACTORS_PRESENT`	lambda_factors audit trail present.
good	model_behavior	`LAMBDA_CONSISTENCY`	Lambda identical across prediction / antagonist / factors.
good	model_behavior	`CALIBRATION_SCALE_BOUNDS`	Calibration scale 0.889 in range.
good	provenance	`CALIBRATION_RECORDED`	Calibration recorded with pre/post lambdas.
good	provenance	`XGBOOST_REASONING_PRESENT`	Match-level xgboost_reasoning present (XGBoost).
good	model_behavior	`LAMBDA_REASONING_CONSISTENCY`	Lambdas in xgboost_reasoning match final Poisson lambdas (1.359 / 1.422).
good	provenance	`XGBOOST_PLAYER_REASONING`	All 22 starters carry full XGBoost / FBref reasoning.
good	integrity	`TEAM_GOALS_SUM`	Crystal Palace: player goals reconcile to team total (1).
good	integrity	`TEAM_GOALS_SUM`	Liverpool: player goals reconcile to team total (1).
good	structure	`POSSESSION_SUMS_100`	Possession sums to 100.0%.
good	integrity	`PLAYER_STAT_REALISM`	All 22 projected player lines pass realism checks.
good	structure	`EXACTLY_ONE_GOALKEEPER`	Crystal Palace: exactly one goalkeeper (Dean Henderson).
good	integrity	`SHOT_MATH_INTEGRITY`	All 11 projected lines have consistent shot components.
good	integrity	`TEAM_SHOTS_CAP`	Crystal Palace: 11 projected shots inside the realistic envelope.
good	structure	`EXACTLY_ONE_GOALKEEPER`	Liverpool: exactly one goalkeeper (Giorgi Mamardashvili).
good	integrity	`SHOT_MATH_INTEGRITY`	All 11 projected lines have consistent shot components.
good	integrity	`TEAM_SHOTS_CAP`	Liverpool: 15 projected shots inside the realistic envelope.
good	provenance	`STANDING_AVAILABLE`	League-standing context available for both sides.
good	provenance	`RANKING_PROVENANCE`	22/22 starters carry a ranking source.
good	provenance	`DATA_DEPTH`	22/22 starters have adequate recent history.
good	provenance	`PREGAME_TOTAL_CONSISTENT`	Pregame total 2.78 ~ Poisson total 2.78.

Real Sociedad vs Rayo Vallecano

20261108_RAY@RSO · LaLiga

WARNINGS risk 10 pred 2-1 (Real Sociedad)λ 1.91 / 1.07conf 0.7 warning 1 good 40

Problems (1)

Sev	Category	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
warning	model_behavior	`MOST_LIKELY_IS_MODE`	Headline score is not the modal scoreline (modal=1-1 (p=0.1042), shown=2-1 (p=0.0991)); the published exact score must be the grid mode, and the winning scenario belongs in the labelled most_likely_winning_score_home/away fields. Both lean Real Sociedad.	2-1	1-1

Lambda evolution (audit trail)

Stage	Home λ	Away λ
Pre-competitive-floor	1.887	0.996
Pre-calibration	1.874	1.003
Final	1.913	1.071

competition_calibration_scale: 1.035competition_observed_total_goals: 2.984quality_gap_applied: Truemismatch_score_pressure_applied: Falsecompetitive_underdog_floor_applied: Falsestage_discount: 1.0

Scoreline distribution

Top scorelines	P
1-1	10.4%
2-1	9.9%
1-0	9.6%
2-0	9.3%
3-1	6.3%

Outcome — home 56.9% · draw 22.2% · away 20.8%

Markets — O2.5 57.3% · BTTS 56.1%

Passed checks (40)

Sev	Category	Rule	Message
good	integrity	`SCHEMA_KEYS_PRESENT`	All required sections present.
good	structure	`LINEUP_ELEVEN`	Real Sociedad: 11 starters.
good	structure	`FORMATION_VALID`	Real Sociedad: formation 4-4-2 valid.
good	structure	`LINEUP_ELEVEN`	Rayo Vallecano: 11 starters.
good	structure	`FORMATION_VALID`	Rayo Vallecano: formation 4-3-3 valid.
good	probability	`OUTCOME_SUMS_ONE`	outcome sums to 1.0000.
good	probability	`MARKETS_COMPLEMENTARY`	Over/Under and BTTS pairs each sum to 1.
good	probability	`SCORELINE_PROBS_NONNEG`	All scoreline probabilities within [0,1].
good	probability	`GRID_SUMS_ONE`	scoreline grid sums to 0.9973.
good	model_behavior	`GRID_REPRODUCIBLE`	Grid reproducible from lambdas (max cell diff 0.0006).
good	probability	`MLS_PROBABILITY_MATCHES`	Headline probability matches the grid.
good	model_behavior	`OUTCOME_MATCHES_GRID`	Outcome split matches the grid (max diff 0.0014).
good	model_behavior	`MARKETS_MATCH_GRID`	Markets match the grid (max diff 0.0027).
good	integrity	`WINNER_IS_VALID_TEAM`	predicted_winner 'Real Sociedad' is a participating side.
good	model_behavior	`WINNER_MATCHES_SCORE`	Winner agrees with headline score (Real Sociedad).
good	model_behavior	`WINNER_PROBABILITY_DIRECTION`	predicted_winner 'Real Sociedad' follows the published modal scoreline 2-1.
good	model_behavior	`LAMBDA_BOUNDS`	Lambdas in range (home 1.913, away 1.071).
good	provenance	`LAMBDA_FACTORS_PRESENT`	lambda_factors audit trail present.
good	model_behavior	`LAMBDA_CONSISTENCY`	Lambda identical across prediction / antagonist / factors.
good	model_behavior	`CALIBRATION_SCALE_BOUNDS`	Calibration scale 1.035 in range.
good	provenance	`CALIBRATION_RECORDED`	Calibration recorded with pre/post lambdas.
good	provenance	`XGBOOST_REASONING_PRESENT`	Match-level xgboost_reasoning present (XGBoost).
good	model_behavior	`LAMBDA_REASONING_CONSISTENCY`	Lambdas in xgboost_reasoning match final Poisson lambdas (1.913 / 1.071).
good	provenance	`FBREF_PRIORS_ACTIVE`	FBref team priors applied (blend weight 0.228, home E[lambda]=0.739, away E[lambda]=0.741).
good	provenance	`XGBOOST_PLAYER_REASONING`	All 22 starters carry full XGBoost / FBref reasoning.
good	integrity	`TEAM_GOALS_SUM`	Real Sociedad: player goals reconcile to team total (2).
good	integrity	`TEAM_GOALS_SUM`	Rayo Vallecano: player goals reconcile to team total (1).
good	structure	`POSSESSION_SUMS_100`	Possession sums to 100.0%.
good	integrity	`PLAYER_STAT_REALISM`	All 22 projected player lines pass realism checks.
good	structure	`EXACTLY_ONE_GOALKEEPER`	Real Sociedad: exactly one goalkeeper (Álex Remiro).
good	integrity	`SHOT_MATH_INTEGRITY`	All 11 projected lines have consistent shot components.
good	integrity	`TEAM_SHOTS_CAP`	Real Sociedad: 14 projected shots inside the realistic envelope.
good	structure	`EXACTLY_ONE_GOALKEEPER`	Rayo Vallecano: exactly one goalkeeper (Augusto Batalla).
good	integrity	`SHOT_MATH_INTEGRITY`	All 11 projected lines have consistent shot components.
good	integrity	`TEAM_SHOTS_CAP`	Rayo Vallecano: 15 projected shots inside the realistic envelope.
good	provenance	`STANDING_AVAILABLE`	League-standing context available for both sides.
good	provenance	`RANKING_PROVENANCE`	22/22 starters carry a ranking source.
good	provenance	`DATA_DEPTH`	22/22 starters have adequate recent history.
good	provenance	`PREGAME_DIRECTION_AGREES`	Pregame favorite agrees with the model winner (Real Sociedad).
good	provenance	`PREGAME_TOTAL_CONSISTENT`	Pregame total 2.98 ~ Poisson total 2.98.

Atlético Madrid vs Barcelona

20261108_BAR@ATM · LaLiga

CLEAN risk 0 pred 1-2 (Barcelona)λ 1.52 / 2.12conf 0.69 good 41

Problems (0)

none

Lambda evolution (audit trail)

Stage	Home λ	Away λ
Pre-competitive-floor	1.551	2.732
Pre-calibration	1.585	2.675
Final	1.521	2.119

competition_calibration_scale: 0.85competition_observed_total_goals: 2.984quality_gap_applied: Truemismatch_score_pressure_applied: Falsecompetitive_underdog_floor_applied: Falsestage_discount: 1.0

Scoreline distribution

Top scorelines	P
1-2	9.0%
1-1	8.5%
2-2	6.8%
2-1	6.4%
1-3	6.3%

Outcome — home 27.6% · draw 21.0% · away 51.4%

Markets — O2.5 70.4% · BTTS 68.8%

Passed checks (41)

Sev	Category	Rule	Message
good	integrity	`SCHEMA_KEYS_PRESENT`	All required sections present.
good	structure	`LINEUP_ELEVEN`	Atlético Madrid: 11 starters.
good	structure	`FORMATION_VALID`	Atlético Madrid: formation 4-4-2 valid.
good	structure	`LINEUP_ELEVEN`	Barcelona: 11 starters.
good	structure	`FORMATION_VALID`	Barcelona: formation 4-3-3 valid.
good	probability	`OUTCOME_SUMS_ONE`	outcome sums to 1.0000.
good	probability	`MARKETS_COMPLEMENTARY`	Over/Under and BTTS pairs each sum to 1.
good	probability	`SCORELINE_PROBS_NONNEG`	All scoreline probabilities within [0,1].
good	probability	`GRID_SUMS_ONE`	scoreline grid sums to 0.9959.
good	model_behavior	`GRID_REPRODUCIBLE`	Grid reproducible from lambdas (max cell diff 0.0006).
good	model_behavior	`MOST_LIKELY_IS_MODE`	Headline score 1-2 is the modal scoreline.
good	probability	`MLS_PROBABILITY_MATCHES`	Headline probability matches the grid.
good	model_behavior	`OUTCOME_MATCHES_GRID`	Outcome split matches the grid (max diff 0.0022).
good	model_behavior	`MARKETS_MATCH_GRID`	Markets match the grid (max diff 0.0041).
good	integrity	`WINNER_IS_VALID_TEAM`	predicted_winner 'Barcelona' is a participating side.
good	model_behavior	`WINNER_MATCHES_SCORE`	Winner agrees with headline score (Barcelona).
good	model_behavior	`WINNER_PROBABILITY_DIRECTION`	predicted_winner 'Barcelona' follows the published modal scoreline 1-2.
good	model_behavior	`LAMBDA_BOUNDS`	Lambdas in range (home 1.521, away 2.119).
good	provenance	`LAMBDA_FACTORS_PRESENT`	lambda_factors audit trail present.
good	model_behavior	`LAMBDA_CONSISTENCY`	Lambda identical across prediction / antagonist / factors.
good	model_behavior	`CALIBRATION_SCALE_BOUNDS`	Calibration scale 0.85 in range.
good	provenance	`CALIBRATION_RECORDED`	Calibration recorded with pre/post lambdas.
good	provenance	`XGBOOST_REASONING_PRESENT`	Match-level xgboost_reasoning present (XGBoost).
good	model_behavior	`LAMBDA_REASONING_CONSISTENCY`	Lambdas in xgboost_reasoning match final Poisson lambdas (1.521 / 2.119).
good	provenance	`FBREF_PRIORS_ACTIVE`	FBref team priors applied (blend weight 0.228, home E[lambda]=3.5, away E[lambda]=3.5).
good	provenance	`XGBOOST_PLAYER_REASONING`	All 22 starters carry full XGBoost / FBref reasoning.
good	integrity	`TEAM_GOALS_SUM`	Atlético Madrid: player goals reconcile to team total (1).
good	integrity	`TEAM_GOALS_SUM`	Barcelona: player goals reconcile to team total (2).
good	structure	`POSSESSION_SUMS_100`	Possession sums to 100.0%.
good	integrity	`PLAYER_STAT_REALISM`	All 22 projected player lines pass realism checks.
good	structure	`EXACTLY_ONE_GOALKEEPER`	Atlético Madrid: exactly one goalkeeper (Jan Oblak).
good	integrity	`SHOT_MATH_INTEGRITY`	All 11 projected lines have consistent shot components.
good	integrity	`TEAM_SHOTS_CAP`	Atlético Madrid: 14 projected shots inside the realistic envelope.
good	structure	`EXACTLY_ONE_GOALKEEPER`	Barcelona: exactly one goalkeeper (Joan García).
good	integrity	`SHOT_MATH_INTEGRITY`	All 11 projected lines have consistent shot components.
good	integrity	`TEAM_SHOTS_CAP`	Barcelona: 22 projected shots inside the realistic envelope.
good	provenance	`STANDING_AVAILABLE`	League-standing context available for both sides.
good	provenance	`RANKING_PROVENANCE`	22/22 starters carry a ranking source.
good	provenance	`DATA_DEPTH`	22/22 starters have adequate recent history.
good	provenance	`PREGAME_DIRECTION_AGREES`	Pregame favorite agrees with the model winner (Barcelona).
good	provenance	`PREGAME_TOTAL_CONSISTENT`	Pregame total 3.64 ~ Poisson total 3.64.

Ipswich vs Bournemouth

20261108_BOU@IPS · Premier League

CLEAN risk 0 pred 1-1 (Draw)λ 1.37 / 1.41conf 0.64 good 39

Problems (0)

none

Lambda evolution (audit trail)

Stage	Home λ	Away λ
Pre-competitive-floor	1.210	1.351
Pre-calibration	1.210	1.351
Final	1.370	1.411

competition_calibration_scale: 1.086competition_observed_total_goals: 2.781quality_gap_applied: Truemismatch_score_pressure_applied: Falsecompetitive_underdog_floor_applied: Falsestage_discount: 1.0

Scoreline distribution

Top scorelines	P
1-1	12.1%
0-1	8.6%
1-2	8.5%
1-0	8.4%
2-1	8.2%

Outcome — home 36.3% · draw 25.6% · away 38.1%

Markets — O2.5 52.6% · BTTS 56.5%

Passed checks (39)

Sev	Category	Rule	Message
good	integrity	`SCHEMA_KEYS_PRESENT`	All required sections present.
good	structure	`LINEUP_ELEVEN`	Ipswich: 11 starters.
good	structure	`FORMATION_VALID`	Ipswich: formation 4-2-3-1 valid.
good	structure	`LINEUP_ELEVEN`	Bournemouth: 11 starters.
good	structure	`FORMATION_VALID`	Bournemouth: formation 4-2-3-1 valid.
good	probability	`OUTCOME_SUMS_ONE`	outcome sums to 1.0000.
good	probability	`MARKETS_COMPLEMENTARY`	Over/Under and BTTS pairs each sum to 1.
good	probability	`SCORELINE_PROBS_NONNEG`	All scoreline probabilities within [0,1].
good	probability	`GRID_SUMS_ONE`	scoreline grid sums to 0.9972.
good	model_behavior	`GRID_REPRODUCIBLE`	Grid reproducible from lambdas (max cell diff 0.0012).
good	model_behavior	`MOST_LIKELY_IS_MODE`	Headline score 1-1 is the modal scoreline.
good	probability	`MLS_PROBABILITY_MATCHES`	Headline probability matches the grid.
good	model_behavior	`OUTCOME_MATCHES_GRID`	Outcome split matches the grid (max diff 0.0016).
good	model_behavior	`MARKETS_MATCH_GRID`	Markets match the grid (max diff 0.0029).
good	integrity	`WINNER_IS_VALID_TEAM`	predicted_winner 'Draw' is a participating side.
good	model_behavior	`WINNER_PROBABILITY_DIRECTION`	predicted_winner 'Draw' follows the published modal scoreline 1-1. It differs from the calibrated 1X2 favorite 'Bournemouth', which is published separately and does not decide the call.
good	model_behavior	`LAMBDA_BOUNDS`	Lambdas in range (home 1.37, away 1.411).
good	provenance	`LAMBDA_FACTORS_PRESENT`	lambda_factors audit trail present.
good	model_behavior	`LAMBDA_CONSISTENCY`	Lambda identical across prediction / antagonist / factors.
good	model_behavior	`CALIBRATION_SCALE_BOUNDS`	Calibration scale 1.086 in range.
good	provenance	`CALIBRATION_RECORDED`	Calibration recorded with pre/post lambdas.
good	provenance	`XGBOOST_REASONING_PRESENT`	Match-level xgboost_reasoning present (XGBoost).
good	model_behavior	`LAMBDA_REASONING_CONSISTENCY`	Lambdas in xgboost_reasoning match final Poisson lambdas (1.37 / 1.411).
good	provenance	`FBREF_PRIORS_ACTIVE`	FBref team priors applied (blend weight 0.192, home E[lambda]=1.379, away E[lambda]=1.379).
good	provenance	`XGBOOST_PLAYER_REASONING`	All 22 starters carry full XGBoost / FBref reasoning.
good	integrity	`TEAM_GOALS_SUM`	Ipswich: player goals reconcile to team total (1).
good	integrity	`TEAM_GOALS_SUM`	Bournemouth: player goals reconcile to team total (1).
good	structure	`POSSESSION_SUMS_100`	Possession sums to 100.0%.
good	integrity	`PLAYER_STAT_REALISM`	All 22 projected player lines pass realism checks.
good	structure	`EXACTLY_ONE_GOALKEEPER`	Ipswich: exactly one goalkeeper (Christian Walton).
good	integrity	`SHOT_MATH_INTEGRITY`	All 11 projected lines have consistent shot components.
good	integrity	`TEAM_SHOTS_CAP`	Ipswich: 10 projected shots inside the realistic envelope.
good	structure	`EXACTLY_ONE_GOALKEEPER`	Bournemouth: exactly one goalkeeper (Đorđe Petrović).
good	integrity	`SHOT_MATH_INTEGRITY`	All 11 projected lines have consistent shot components.
good	integrity	`TEAM_SHOTS_CAP`	Bournemouth: 15 projected shots inside the realistic envelope.
good	provenance	`STANDING_AVAILABLE`	League-standing context available for both sides.
good	provenance	`RANKING_PROVENANCE`	22/22 starters carry a ranking source.
good	provenance	`DATA_DEPTH`	22/22 starters have adequate recent history.
good	provenance	`PREGAME_TOTAL_CONSISTENT`	Pregame total 2.78 ~ Poisson total 2.78.

Villarreal vs Getafe

20261108_GET@VIL · LaLiga

CLEAN risk 0 pred 2-0 (Villarreal)λ 2.14 / 0.84conf 0.73 good 41

Problems (0)

none

Lambda evolution (audit trail)

Stage	Home λ	Away λ
Pre-mismatch	1.815	0.698
Pre-calibration	1.604	0.740
Final	2.143	0.840

competition_calibration_scale: 1.187competition_observed_total_goals: 2.984quality_gap_applied: Truemismatch_score_pressure_applied: Truecompetitive_underdog_floor_applied: Falsestage_discount: 1.0

Scoreline distribution

Top scorelines	P
2-0	11.6%
1-0	10.8%
2-1	9.8%
1-1	9.2%
3-0	8.3%

Outcome — home 67.3% · draw 19.3% · away 13.5%

Markets — O2.5 57.3% · BTTS 50.2%

Passed checks (41)

Sev	Category	Rule	Message
good	integrity	`SCHEMA_KEYS_PRESENT`	All required sections present.
good	structure	`LINEUP_ELEVEN`	Villarreal: 11 starters.
good	structure	`FORMATION_VALID`	Villarreal: formation 4-4-2 valid.
good	structure	`LINEUP_ELEVEN`	Getafe: 11 starters.
good	structure	`FORMATION_VALID`	Getafe: formation 5-4-1 valid.
good	probability	`OUTCOME_SUMS_ONE`	outcome sums to 1.0001.
good	probability	`MARKETS_COMPLEMENTARY`	Over/Under and BTTS pairs each sum to 1.
good	probability	`SCORELINE_PROBS_NONNEG`	All scoreline probabilities within [0,1].
good	probability	`GRID_SUMS_ONE`	scoreline grid sums to 0.9966.
good	model_behavior	`GRID_REPRODUCIBLE`	Grid reproducible from lambdas (max cell diff 0.0005).
good	model_behavior	`MOST_LIKELY_IS_MODE`	Headline score 2-0 is the modal scoreline.
good	probability	`MLS_PROBABILITY_MATCHES`	Headline probability matches the grid.
good	model_behavior	`OUTCOME_MATCHES_GRID`	Outcome split matches the grid (max diff 0.0018).
good	model_behavior	`MARKETS_MATCH_GRID`	Markets match the grid (max diff 0.0035).
good	integrity	`WINNER_IS_VALID_TEAM`	predicted_winner 'Villarreal' is a participating side.
good	model_behavior	`WINNER_MATCHES_SCORE`	Winner agrees with headline score (Villarreal).
good	model_behavior	`WINNER_PROBABILITY_DIRECTION`	predicted_winner 'Villarreal' follows the published modal scoreline 2-0.
good	model_behavior	`LAMBDA_BOUNDS`	Lambdas in range (home 2.143, away 0.84).
good	provenance	`LAMBDA_FACTORS_PRESENT`	lambda_factors audit trail present.
good	model_behavior	`LAMBDA_CONSISTENCY`	Lambda identical across prediction / antagonist / factors.
good	model_behavior	`CALIBRATION_SCALE_BOUNDS`	Calibration scale 1.187 in range.
good	provenance	`CALIBRATION_RECORDED`	Calibration recorded with pre/post lambdas.
good	provenance	`XGBOOST_REASONING_PRESENT`	Match-level xgboost_reasoning present (XGBoost).
good	model_behavior	`LAMBDA_REASONING_CONSISTENCY`	Lambdas in xgboost_reasoning match final Poisson lambdas (2.143 / 0.84).
good	provenance	`FBREF_PRIORS_ACTIVE`	FBref team priors applied (blend weight 0.228, home E[lambda]=0.326, away E[lambda]=0.328).
good	provenance	`XGBOOST_PLAYER_REASONING`	All 22 starters carry full XGBoost / FBref reasoning.
good	integrity	`TEAM_GOALS_SUM`	Villarreal: player goals reconcile to team total (2).
good	integrity	`TEAM_GOALS_SUM`	Getafe: player goals reconcile to team total (0).
good	structure	`POSSESSION_SUMS_100`	Possession sums to 100.0%.
good	integrity	`PLAYER_STAT_REALISM`	All 22 projected player lines pass realism checks.
good	structure	`EXACTLY_ONE_GOALKEEPER`	Villarreal: exactly one goalkeeper (Luiz Júnior).
good	integrity	`SHOT_MATH_INTEGRITY`	All 11 projected lines have consistent shot components.
good	integrity	`TEAM_SHOTS_CAP`	Villarreal: 16 projected shots inside the realistic envelope.
good	structure	`EXACTLY_ONE_GOALKEEPER`	Getafe: exactly one goalkeeper (David Soria).
good	integrity	`SHOT_MATH_INTEGRITY`	All 11 projected lines have consistent shot components.
good	integrity	`TEAM_SHOTS_CAP`	Getafe: 11 projected shots inside the realistic envelope.
good	provenance	`STANDING_AVAILABLE`	League-standing context available for both sides.
good	provenance	`RANKING_PROVENANCE`	22/22 starters carry a ranking source.
good	provenance	`DATA_DEPTH`	22/22 starters have adequate recent history.
good	provenance	`PREGAME_DIRECTION_AGREES`	Pregame favorite agrees with the model winner (Villarreal).
good	provenance	`PREGAME_TOTAL_CONSISTENT`	Pregame total 2.98 ~ Poisson total 2.98.

Rule catalogue

Rule	Description	Triggered
`SCHEMA_KEYS_PRESENT`	All required top-level sections exist in the artifact.	ok
`LINEUP_ELEVEN`	Each side fields exactly 11 starters.	ok
`FORMATION_VALID`	Formation string parses and its outfield lines sum to 10.	ok
`POSSESSION_SUMS_100`	Estimated possession of both teams sums to ~100%.	ok
`TEAM_GOALS_SUM`	Players' projected integer goals sum to the team's headline score.	ok
`TEAM_TOTALS_SCORE_MATCH`	team_totals.projected_goals equals the headline score component.	ok
`TEAM_EG_LAMBDA_MATCH`	team_totals.expected_goals matches the team's Poisson lambda.	ok
`PLAYER_STAT_REALISM`	Projected player lines are internally consistent (xG<=shots, accurate<=total passes, minutes/rating in range).	ok
`EXACTLY_ONE_GOALKEEPER`	Each starting XI fields exactly one goalkeeper.	ok
`SHOT_MATH_INTEGRITY`	Shot components are physically consistent (on target <= total, on+off <= total; blocked shots cannot be negative).	ok
`PLAYER_MINUTES_LEAGUE_CAP`	No player projects more minutes than the competition clock allows (90 + stoppage, or extra time in cups).	ok
`TEAM_SHOTS_CAP`	Team projected shots stay inside the realistic historical envelope (~35).	ok
`OUTCOME_SUMS_ONE`	home_win + draw + away_win sums to 1.	ok
`MARKETS_COMPLEMENTARY`	Over/Under and BTTS pairs each sum to 1.	ok
`GRID_SUMS_ONE`	The scoreline probability grid sums to ~1.	ok
`SCORELINE_PROBS_NONNEG`	Every scoreline probability is a valid [0,1] value.	ok
`GRID_REPRODUCIBLE`	The reported scoreline grid is reproducible from the lambdas.	ok
`MOST_LIKELY_IS_MODE`	The headline most-likely score is the distribution's modal scoreline.	6 problems
`MLS_PROBABILITY_MATCHES`	most_likely_score_probability equals the grid value of that score.	ok
`OUTCOME_MATCHES_GRID`	The reported win/draw/loss split is derivable from the grid.	ok
`MARKETS_MATCH_GRID`	The reported Over/Under and BTTS are derivable from the grid.	ok
`WINNER_MATCHES_SCORE`	predicted_winner agrees with the headline score direction.	ok
`WINNER_PROBABILITY_DIRECTION`	predicted_winner derives from the published modal scoreline; diverging from the 1X2 favorite is expected.	ok
`WINNER_IS_VALID_TEAM`	predicted_winner names a participating team (or Draw).	ok
`MODAL_OUTCOME_IS_DRAW`	Draw is the single largest outcome bucket while a team is named.	ok
`LAMBDA_BOUNDS`	Both lambdas fall inside the engine's [0.55, 5.00] envelope.	ok
`LAMBDA_CONSISTENCY`	The lambda is identical across prediction / antagonist / lambda_factors.	ok
`LAMBDA_FACTORS_PRESENT`	The lambda_factors decomposition (audit trail) is present.	ok
`CALIBRATION_SCALE_BOUNDS`	competition_calibration_scale stays within [0.85, 1.35].	ok
`CALIBRATION_RECORDED`	When calibration ran, the pre-calibration lambdas are recorded.	ok
`STANDING_AVAILABLE`	League-standing context is available for a domestic fixture.	ok
`RANKING_PROVENANCE`	Player ranking/quality signals carry a recognised source.	ok
`DATA_DEPTH`	Starters have enough recent games to model rather than synthesise.	ok
`FBREF_PRIORS_ACTIVE`	FBref season-prior files exist so that branch is not silently inert.	2 problems
`XGBOOST_REASONING_PRESENT`	Match-level xgboost_reasoning payload is present with full tracing pipeline.	ok
`XGBOOST_PLAYER_REASONING`	Starters have xgboost_reasoning metadata tracking feature contributions and FBref priors.	ok
`LAMBDA_REASONING_CONSISTENCY`	Lambdas reported in xgboost_reasoning match the final Poisson lambdas.	ok
`PREGAME_DIRECTION_AGREES`	The pregame fair-line favorite agrees with the model winner.	ok
`PREGAME_TOTAL_CONSISTENT`	The pregame expected total is close to the sum of the lambdas.	ok
`RESULT_WINNER_HIT`	The predicted winner matched the real result.	ok
`RESULT_EXACT_SCORE_HIT`	The headline score matched the real scoreline exactly.	ok
`RESULT_OU_HIT`	The Over/Under 2.5 lean matched reality.	ok
`RESULT_BTTS_HIT`	The BTTS lean matched reality.	ok
`RESULT_CONFIDENT_MISS`	A high-confidence prediction did not reach the real outcome.	ok
`OUTCOME_BRIER`	Brier score of the win/draw/loss probabilities vs the real result.	ok

Generated 2026-11-03 14:38:28 UTC · Soccer prediction reporting