Soccer predictions: actual data vs predicted data
Slate 20260612 · 3 match(es)
How to read this report. Each match shows the model's headline prediction, the stage-by-stage lambda (goal-rate) build, both teams' standing/form inputs, and every starter's projected line next to their real season baseline. A moderate / large deviation badge flags a projection that strays far from the player's season form — a quick way to spot when the inputs look right but a projection does not. When the real result is known an actual-vs-predicted banner appears.
All matches overview
| Match | Score | Winner | H / D / A | O2.5 | BTTS | Conf | λ H/A | Actual | Result |
|---|
| Canada vs BiH FIFA World Cup | 1-1 | Draw | 35.4% / 31.1% / 33.5% | 32.4% | 40.2% | 0.69 | 1.02 / 0.98 | - | pending |
| South Korea vs Czechia FIFA World Cup | 0-1 | Draw | 21.7% / 29.9% / 48.4% | 31.6% | 37.0% | 0.7 | 0.73 / 1.24 | - | pending |
| USA vs Paraguay FIFA World Cup | 1-1 | Draw | 38.3% / 29.6% / 32.1% | 36.7% | 43.7% | 0.7 | 1.14 / 1.02 | - | pending |
Match detail
Canada vs BiH
FIFA World Cup · 20260612 · 4-4-2 vs 4-4-2
Predicted 1-1Winner: DrawConfidence 0.69λ home/away 1.02 / 0.98Most-likely P 13.7%
Actual vs predicted: result not available yet (upcoming fixture).
Lambda decomposition (how the goal rates were built)
| Stage | Canada λ | BiH λ |
|---|
| Pre-competitive-floor | 0.909 | 0.983 |
| Pre-calibration | 0.909 | 0.983 |
| Final λ | 1.020 | 0.983 |
competition calibration scale 1.0competition observed total goals 0.0quality gap applied Falsemismatch score pressure applied Falsecompetitive underdog floor applied Truestage discount 1.0
Scoreline distribution & markets
| Top 5 scorelines | P |
|---|
| 1-1 | 13.7% |
| 1-0 | 13.6% |
| 0-0 | 13.6% |
| 0-1 | 13.1% |
| 2-0 | 7.0% |
| Home win | 35.4% |
| Draw | 31.1% |
| Away win | 33.5% |
| Over 2.5 | 32.4% |
| BTTS yes | 40.2% |
Projected players vs season baseline
Proj = projected for this match · Season = this season's per-game average from match data · deviation badge compares projected xG to the player's season xG/game.
Canada — projected line vs season baseline (4-4-2)
| Player | Pos | Min | Proj G | Proj xG | Season xG/g | | Proj Sh | Season Sh/g | Proj Rtg | Season Rtg | Rec |
|---|
| Stephen Eustaquio | M | 84 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 100% | 2 | 0.6 | 83.7 | 57.4 | 9 |
| Tajon Buchanan | M | 46 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 100% | 2 | 0.6 | 80.5 | 43.2 | 12 |
| Richie Laryea | D | 65 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 100% | 0 | 0.2 | 78.6 | 45.6 | 8 |
| Derek Cornelius | D | 74 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.15 | 80% | 0 | 1.0 | 80.6 | 52.0 | 5 |
| Luc De Fougerolles | D | 60 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 100% | 0 | 0.4 | 64.7 | 67.4 | 7 |
| Alistair Johnston | D | 82 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.05 | ok | 0 | 0.9 | 84.8 | 68.9 | 9 |
| Maxime Crépeau | G | 88 | 0 | - | - | n/a | | 0.0 | 75.6 | 52.6 | 9 |
| Ismael Koné | M | 63 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.08 | ok | 1 | 0.6 | 79.4 | 42.8 | 8 |
| Liam Millar | M | 44 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 100% | 2 | 0.1 | 78.3 | 19.8 | 10 |
| Cyle Larin | F | 81 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.38 | 82% | 2 | 1.8 | 83.5 | 54.0 | 5 |
| Jonathan David | F | 37 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.38 | 99% | 0 | 2.2 | 88.8 | 58.2 | 8 |
| Team totals | 1 | 1.02 | | 10 | | 79.9 | |
BiH — projected line vs season baseline (4-4-2)
| Player | Pos | Min | Proj G | Proj xG | Season xG/g | | Proj Sh | Season Sh/g | Proj Rtg | Season Rtg | Rec |
|---|
| Ermedin Demirović | F | 76 | 1 | 0.25 | 0.19 | 34% | 2 | 1.4 | 86.8 | 58.8 | 10 |
| Samed Baždar | F | 11 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | 0 | 0.0 | 75.3 | 12.4 | 5 |
| Amar Memić | M | 89 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.04 | 79% | 2 | 1.1 | 79.0 | 55.3 | 7 |
| Ivan Bašić | M | 90 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.02 | 98% | 2 | 0.8 | 88.7 | 43.2 | 5 |
| Esmir Bajraktarević | F | 90 | 0 | 0.15 | 0.12 | ok | 2 | 0.9 | 73.8 | 41.0 | 8 |
| Sead Kolašinac | D | 48 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | 0 | 0.0 | 85.2 | 38.5 | 10 |
| Tarik Muharemović | D | 95 | 0 | 0.22 | 0.04 | 522% | 0 | 0.2 | 76.9 | 30.3 | 11 |
| Nikola Katić | D | 90 | 0 | - | 0.02 | n/a | | 0.4 | 75.6 | 54.8 | 5 |
| Amar Dedić | D | 92 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 100% | 0 | 0.2 | 79.3 | 37.0 | 12 |
| Nikola Vasilj | G | 89 | 0 | - | - | n/a | | 0.0 | 83.8 | 56.8 | 8 |
| Benjamin Tahirović | M | 83 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 100% | 0 | 0.2 | 73.8 | 52.2 | 5 |
| Team totals | 1 | 0.98 | | 10 | | 79.8 | |
Antagonist / tactical summary
Home midfield dominates with ~52% possession expected (Ismael Koné vs Amar Memić). Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.48, Away: 0.31. Home danger zone: Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle.
Midfield — possession 52.0% / 48.0%, dominance ratio 0.56, key duel: Ismael Koné vs Amar Memić
Cyle Larin xG 0.07Tajon Buchanan xG 0.16Liam Millar xG 0.14Ermedin Demirović xG 0.25Ivan Bašić xG 0.05Amar Memić xG 0.01
Summary
Antagonist matchup analysis for Canada vs BiH. Most likely scoreline: 1-1. Lambdas derived from 4 home and 3 away individual player duels.
Tactical parity between 4-4-2 and 4-4-2. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Home midfield dominates with ~52% possession expected (Ismael Koné vs Amar Memić). Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.48, Away: 0.31. Home danger zone: Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle.
South Korea vs Czechia
FIFA World Cup · 20260612 · 3-4-2-1 vs 4-4-2
Predicted 0-1Winner: DrawConfidence 0.7λ home/away 0.73 / 1.24Most-likely P 17.2%
Actual vs predicted: result not available yet (upcoming fixture).
Lambda decomposition (how the goal rates were built)
| Stage | South Korea λ | Czechia λ |
|---|
| Pre-calibration | 0.730 | 1.243 |
| Final λ | 0.730 | 1.243 |
competition calibration scale 1.0competition observed total goals 0.0quality gap applied Falsemismatch score pressure applied Falsestage discount 1.0
Scoreline distribution & markets
| Top 5 scorelines | P |
|---|
| 0-1 | 17.2% |
| 0-0 | 14.0% |
| 1-1 | 12.7% |
| 0-2 | 10.7% |
| 1-0 | 10.0% |
| Home win | 21.7% |
| Draw | 29.9% |
| Away win | 48.4% |
| Over 2.5 | 31.6% |
| BTTS yes | 37.0% |
Projected players vs season baseline
Proj = projected for this match · Season = this season's per-game average from match data · deviation badge compares projected xG to the player's season xG/game.
South Korea — projected line vs season baseline (3-4-2-1)
| Player | Pos | Min | Proj G | Proj xG | Season xG/g | | Proj Sh | Season Sh/g | Proj Rtg | Season Rtg | Rec |
|---|
| Bum-keun Song | G | 88 | 0 | - | - | n/a | | 0.0 | 6.9 | 31.8 | 15 |
| Kim Min-jae | D | 76 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.05 | 111% | 0 | 0.4 | 7.5 | 45.8 | 11 |
| Young-woo Seol | D | 89 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 100% | 1 | 0.4 | 6.6 | 38.9 | 7 |
| Yu-min Cho | D | 90 | 0 | - | - | n/a | | - | 6.6 | - | 0 |
| Kang-in Lee | M | 62 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.02 | 337% | 2 | 0.4 | 7.0 | 34.9 | 18 |
| Hwang In-beom | M | 70 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.13 | 57% | 1 | 1.3 | 6.7 | 74.7 | 3 |
| Jens Castrop | M | 76 | 0 | 0.06 | - | n/a | 1 | 0.0 | 6.7 | 22.0 | 3 |
| Hong Hyun-seok | M | 27 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | 1 | 0.0 | 6.3 | 48.5 | 4 |
| Son Heung-min | F | 90 | 0 | 0.19 | 0.31 | 38% | 2 | 2.2 | 7.0 | 42.0 | 8 |
| Hyeon-gyu Oh | F | 86 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.25 | 54% | 2 | 1.3 | 6.6 | 66.5 | 6 |
| Hwang Hee-chan | F | 59 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.04 | 107% | 0 | 0.7 | 6.3 | 65.3 | 6 |
| Team totals | 0 | 0.73 | | 10 | | 6.8 | |
Czechia — projected line vs season baseline (4-4-2)
| Player | Pos | Min | Proj G | Proj xG | Season xG/g | | Proj Sh | Season Sh/g | Proj Rtg | Season Rtg | Rec |
|---|
| Lukáš Horníček | G | 92 | 0 | - | - | n/a | | 0.0 | 7.0 | 42.1 | 15 |
| Ladislav Krejčí | D | 90 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.09 | ok | 1 | 1.2 | 7.2 | 57.2 | 6 |
| Robin Hranáč | D | 69 | 0 | 0.09 | - | n/a | 1 | 0.0 | 6.4 | 51.4 | 5 |
| Martin Vitík | D | 67 | 0 | 0.12 | 0.12 | ok | 1 | 0.5 | 6.9 | 65.0 | 2 |
| Štěpán Chaloupek | D | 65 | 0 | 0.31 | 0.18 | 71% | 1 | 0.8 | 6.8 | 45.5 | 6 |
| Tomáš Souček | M | 87 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.18 | 70% | 2 | 0.7 | 7.0 | 67.5 | 6 |
| Michal Sadílek | M | 84 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.09 | 90% | 1 | 1.2 | 7.0 | 69.7 | 6 |
| Václav Černý | M | 79 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.08 | 47% | 1 | 1.2 | 6.6 | 67.8 | 4 |
| Adam Karabec | M | 64 | 0 | 0.12 | - | n/a | 1 | 0.0 | 6.6 | 21.3 | 3 |
| Pavel Šulc | F | 82 | 0 | 0.16 | 0.13 | ok | 2 | 0.6 | 7.5 | 56.4 | 8 |
| Patrik Schick | F | 79 | 1 | 0.38 | 0.52 | ok | 2 | 1.9 | 6.8 | 59.6 | 8 |
| Team totals | 1 | 1.24 | | 14 | | 6.9 | |
Antagonist / tactical summary
Midfield is evenly contested — Kang-in Lee vs Tomáš Souček will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.48, Away: 0.79. Home danger zone: Shadow Striker vs CB + Mid Cover — Layered Defense. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle.
Midfield — possession 49.2% / 50.8%, dominance ratio 0.51, key duel: Kang-in Lee vs Tomáš Souček
Hyeon-gyu Oh xG 0.11Son Heung-min xG 0.19Jens Castrop xG 0.05Václav Černý xG 0.09Tomáš Souček xG 0.05Michal Sadílek xG 0.01
Summary
Antagonist matchup analysis for South Korea vs Czechia. Most likely scoreline: 0-1. Lambdas derived from 5 home and 6 away individual player duels.
Tactical parity between 3-4-2-1 and 4-4-2. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Midfield is evenly contested — Kang-in Lee vs Tomáš Souček will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.48, Away: 0.79. Home danger zone: Shadow Striker vs CB + Mid Cover — Layered Defense. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle.
USA vs Paraguay
FIFA World Cup · 20260612 · 3-4-2-1 vs 4-4-2
Predicted 1-1Winner: DrawConfidence 0.7λ home/away 1.14 / 1.02Most-likely P 13.5%
Actual vs predicted: result not available yet (upcoming fixture).
Lambda decomposition (how the goal rates were built)
| Stage | USA λ | Paraguay λ |
|---|
| Pre-competitive-floor | 1.142 | 0.914 |
| Pre-calibration | 1.142 | 0.914 |
| Final λ | 1.142 | 1.020 |
competition calibration scale 1.0competition observed total goals 0.0quality gap applied Truemismatch score pressure applied Falsecompetitive underdog floor applied Truestage discount 1.0
Scoreline distribution & markets
| Top 5 scorelines | P |
|---|
| 1-1 | 13.5% |
| 1-0 | 13.0% |
| 0-0 | 11.6% |
| 0-1 | 11.6% |
| 2-1 | 7.7% |
| Home win | 38.3% |
| Draw | 29.6% |
| Away win | 32.1% |
| Over 2.5 | 36.7% |
| BTTS yes | 43.7% |
Projected players vs season baseline
Proj = projected for this match · Season = this season's per-game average from match data · deviation badge compares projected xG to the player's season xG/game.
USA — projected line vs season baseline (3-4-2-1)
| Player | Pos | Min | Proj G | Proj xG | Season xG/g | | Proj Sh | Season Sh/g | Proj Rtg | Season Rtg | Rec |
|---|
| Sergiño Dest | D | 80 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 100% | 0 | 0.3 | 86.6 | 43.5 | 11 |
| Chris Richards | D | 84 | 0 | 0.30 | 0.06 | 414% | 1 | 0.5 | 83.8 | 42.7 | 11 |
| Tim Ream | D | 87 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | 0 | 0.0 | 78.5 | 43.1 | 8 |
| Alexander Freeman | D | 88 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 100% | 0 | 0.3 | 85.7 | 36.1 | 12 |
| Matthew Freese | G | 90 | 0 | - | - | n/a | | 0.0 | 88.7 | 44.1 | 9 |
| Tyler Adams | M | 72 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 100% | 0 | 0.1 | 86.3 | 43.9 | 11 |
| Weston McKennie | M | 93 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 100% | 2 | 0.8 | 85.1 | 69.0 | 8 |
| Malik Tillman | M | 19 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.12 | 100% | 1 | 1.0 | 88.9 | 69.2 | 10 |
| Antonee Robinson | D | 95 | 1 | 0.19 | 0.07 | 174% | 1 | 0.2 | 89.3 | 41.8 | 12 |
| Folarin Balogun | F | 74 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.29 | 63% | 2 | 2.9 | 84.4 | 57.6 | 7 |
| Christian Pulišić | F | 95 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.14 | ok | 3 | 0.9 | 91.7 | 45.8 | 9 |
| Team totals | 1 | 1.14 | | 12 | | 86.3 | |
Paraguay — projected line vs season baseline (4-4-2)
| Player | Pos | Min | Proj G | Proj xG | Season xG/g | | Proj Sh | Season Sh/g | Proj Rtg | Season Rtg | Rec |
|---|
| Alex Arce | F | 66 | 1 | 0.14 | 0.11 | ok | 2 | 0.5 | 81.7 | 29.5 | 10 |
| Antonio Sanabria | F | 58 | 0 | 0.19 | - | n/a | 2 | 0.0 | 82.4 | 21.5 | 6 |
| Diego Gómez | M | 72 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.13 | 42% | 2 | 1.3 | 79.9 | 42.0 | 9 |
| Andrés Cubas | M | 87 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 100% | 1 | 0.1 | 80.7 | 38.3 | 9 |
| Damián Bobadilla | M | 57 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 100% | 1 | 0.4 | 84.6 | 26.3 | 10 |
| Junior Alonso | D | 88 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 100% | 1 | 0.3 | 88.5 | 44.5 | 11 |
| Omar Alderete | D | 86 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 1041% | 1 | 0.2 | 84.9 | 45.0 | 9 |
| Gustavo Gómez | D | 88 | 0 | 0.26 | 0.02 | 1059% | 0 | 0.2 | 87.9 | 38.9 | 14 |
| Juan Cáceres | D | 70 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 100% | 0 | 0.4 | 90.8 | 55.6 | 5 |
| Orlando Gill | G | 89 | 0 | - | - | n/a | | 0.0 | 68.9 | 47.1 | 9 |
| Miguel Almirón | M | 81 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 100% | 1 | 0.4 | 82.8 | 28.1 | 9 |
| Team totals | 1 | 1.02 | | 13 | | 83.0 | |
Antagonist / tactical summary
Midfield is evenly contested — Weston McKennie vs Diego Gómez will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.37, Away: 0.71. Home danger zone: Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle.
Midfield — possession 51.8% / 48.2%, dominance ratio 0.56, key duel: Weston McKennie vs Diego Gómez
Folarin Balogun xG 0.11Malik Tillman xG 0.11Weston McKennie xG 0.15Damián Bobadilla xG 0.11Diego Gómez xG 0.07Andrés Cubas xG 0.08
Summary
Antagonist matchup analysis for USA vs Paraguay. Most likely scoreline: 1-1. Lambdas derived from 3 home and 6 away individual player duels.
Tactical parity between 3-4-2-1 and 4-4-2. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Midfield is evenly contested — Weston McKennie vs Diego Gómez will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.37, Away: 0.71. Home danger zone: Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle.
Generated 2026-09-04 22:27:55 UTC · Soccer prediction reporting