Soccer predictions: actual data vs predicted data

Slate 20260613 · 5 match(es)

How to read this report. Each match shows the model's headline prediction, the stage-by-stage lambda (goal-rate) build, both teams' standing/form inputs, and every starter's projected line next to their real season baseline. A moderate / large deviation badge flags a projection that strays far from the player's season form — a quick way to spot when the inputs look right but a projection does not. When the real result is known an actual-vs-predicted banner appears.

All matches overview

Match	Score	Winner	H / D / A	O2.5	BTTS	Conf	λ H/A	Actual	Result
Brazil vs Morocco FIFA World Cup	1-0	Draw	55.8% / 24.5% / 19.7%	46.4%	47.2%	0.76	1.66 / 0.88	-	pending
USA vs Paraguay FIFA World Cup	1-0	Draw	59.7% / 26.3% / 14.0%	33.5%	33.3%	0.74	1.48 / 0.56	-	pending
Haiti vs Scotland FIFA World Cup	0-1	Draw	22.8% / 27.5% / 49.8%	39.0%	43.2%	0.73	0.85 / 1.40	-	pending
Qatar vs Switzerland FIFA World Cup	1-1	Draw	25.0% / 25.2% / 49.8%	49.1%	51.8%	0.75	1.05 / 1.59	-	pending
Australia vs Türkiye FIFA World Cup	1-1	Draw	26.7% / 26.3% / 47.0%	46.4%	50.3%	0.74	1.05 / 1.48	-	pending

Match detail

Brazil vs Morocco

FIFA World Cup · 20260613 · 4-2-3-1 vs 4-2-3-1

Predicted 1-0Winner: DrawConfidence 0.76λ home/away 1.66 / 0.88Most-likely P 13.2%

Actual vs predicted: result not available yet (upcoming fixture).

Lambda decomposition (how the goal rates were built)

Stage	Brazil λ	Morocco λ
Pre-mismatch	1.527	0.894
Pre-competitive-floor	1.656	0.875
Pre-calibration	1.527	0.894
Final λ	1.656	0.875

competition calibration scale 1.0competition observed total goals 0.0quality gap applied Truemismatch score pressure applied Truecompetitive underdog floor applied Falsestage discount 1.0

Scoreline distribution & markets

Top 5 scorelines	P
1-0	13.2%
1-1	11.6%
2-0	10.9%
2-1	9.6%
0-0	8.0%

Home win	55.8%
Draw	24.5%
Away win	19.7%
Over 2.5	46.4%
BTTS yes	47.2%

Projected players vs season baseline

Proj = projected for this match · Season = this season's per-game average from match data · deviation badge compares projected xG to the player's season xG/game.

Brazil — projected line vs season baseline (4-2-3-1)

Player	Pos	Min	Proj G	Proj xG	Season xG/g		Proj Sh	Season Sh/g	Proj Rtg	Season Rtg	Rec
Alex Sandro	D	84	0	0.04	0.00	1363%	0	0.1	6.8	15.1	14
Gabriel Magalhães	D	88	0	0.17	0.04	316%	1	0.4	7.7	59.1	17
Marquinhos	D	92	0	0.09	0.01	981%	0	0.2	7.6	66.5	14
Danilo	D	74	0	0.05	0.01	447%	0	0.2	6.8	36.8	13
Alisson	G	92	0	-	-	n/a		0.0	7.0	49.9	10
Bruno Guimarães	M	94	0	0.04	0.16	71%	1	1.5	8.0	57.7	10
Casemiro	M	82	0	0.08	0.14	46%	2	1.2	6.8	72.8	6
Raphinha	M	95	1	0.26	0.12	109%	2	1.0	7.8	28.3	14
Lucas Paquetá	M	65	0	0.08	0.13	35%	2	1.3	7.5	39.8	14
Matheus Cunha	F	31	0	0.38	0.19	104%	2	1.8	7.3	47.2	11
Vinícius Júnior	F	95	0	0.29	0.55	48%	2	2.6	7.7	53.7	17
Team totals			1	1.66			14			7.4

Morocco — projected line vs season baseline (4-2-3-1)

Player	Pos	Min	Proj xG	Season xG/g		Proj Sh	Season Sh/g	Proj Rtg	Season Rtg	Rec
Ismael Saibari	M	21	0.39	0.23	68%	2	1.3	8.0	40.9	9
Soufiane Rahimi	F	90	0.10	0.12	ok	2	0.8	6.8	57.8	6
Azzedine Ounahi	M	91	0.14	0.09	56%	2	1.6	7.5	65.2	9
Brahim Díaz	M	47	0.14	0.09	53%	2	0.8	7.5	46.6	18
Neil El Aynaoui	M	61	0.00	0.05	100%	1	0.7	7.3	62.1	10
Ayyoub Bouaddi	M	66	0.00	0.02	100%	1	0.3	7.3	55.2	11
Noussair Mazraoui	D	85	0.00	-	n/a	0	0.0	7.3	44.9	11
Chadi Riad	D	83	0.11	0.02	485%	1	0.2	6.6	25.5	13
Issa Diop	D	74	0.79	0.07	1107%	0	0.1	6.6	39.8	12
Achraf Hakimi	D	95	0.16	0.18	ok	1	1.3	7.6	63.7	11
Bono	G	88	-	-	n/a		0.0	6.5	62.2	10
Team totals			0.88			16			7.2

Antagonist / tactical summary

Midfield is evenly contested — Bruno Guimarães vs Ayyoub Bouaddi will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 1.00, Away: 0.80. Home danger zone: Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle. Away danger zone: Attacking Mid vs Double Pivot — Tight Space Battle.

Midfield — possession 50.5% / 49.5%, dominance ratio 0.50, key duel: Bruno Guimarães vs Ayyoub Bouaddi

Lucas Paquetá xG 0.08Matheus Cunha xG 0.38Raphinha xG 0.20Azzedine Ounahi xG 0.16Brahim Díaz xG 0.17Ismael Saibari xG 0.32

Summary

Antagonist matchup analysis for Brazil vs Morocco. Most likely scoreline: 1-0. Lambdas derived from 5 home and 5 away individual player duels.

Tactical parity between 4-2-3-1 and 4-2-3-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Midfield is evenly contested — Bruno Guimarães vs Ayyoub Bouaddi will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 1.00, Away: 0.80. Home danger zone: Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle. Away danger zone: Attacking Mid vs Double Pivot — Tight Space Battle.

USA vs Paraguay

FIFA World Cup · 20260613 · 3-4-2-1 vs 3-5-2

Predicted 1-0Winner: DrawConfidence 0.74λ home/away 1.48 / 0.56Most-likely P 19.1%

Actual vs predicted: result not available yet (upcoming fixture).

Lambda decomposition (how the goal rates were built)

Stage	USA λ	Paraguay λ
Pre-calibration	1.481	0.563
Final λ	1.481	0.563

competition calibration scale 1.0competition observed total goals 0.0quality gap applied Truemismatch score pressure applied Falsestage discount 1.0

Scoreline distribution & markets

Top 5 scorelines	P
1-0	19.1%
2-0	14.2%
0-0	13.0%
1-1	10.9%
2-1	8.0%

Home win	59.7%
Draw	26.3%
Away win	14.0%
Over 2.5	33.5%
BTTS yes	33.3%

Projected players vs season baseline

Proj = projected for this match · Season = this season's per-game average from match data · deviation badge compares projected xG to the player's season xG/game.

USA — projected line vs season baseline (3-4-2-1)

Player	Pos	Min	Proj G	Proj xG	Season xG/g		Proj Sh	Season Sh/g	Proj Rtg	Season Rtg	Rec
Patrick Schulte	G	90	0	-	-	n/a		0.0	6.7	34.2	4
Antonee Robinson	D	83	0	0.12	0.07	71%	1	0.2	7.2	41.8	12
Chris Richards	D	86	0	0.19	0.06	227%	1	0.5	6.8	42.7	11
Joe Scally	D	88	0	0.02	0.00	317%	0	0.1	6.6	40.7	8
Weston McKennie	M	93	0	0.05	0.08	33%	2	0.8	7.5	69.0	8
Malik Tillman	M	61	0	0.03	0.12	73%	2	1.0	7.0	69.2	10
Johnny Cardoso	M	52	0	0.00	0.00	100%	1	0.1	7.0	37.2	9
Brenden Aaronson	M	65	0	0.05	0.07	33%	1	0.6	6.8	21.8	12
Christian Pulišić	F	90	0	0.22	0.14	58%	3	0.9	7.4	45.8	9
Folarin Balogun	F	87	1	0.32	0.29	ok	2	2.9	7.1	57.6	7
Ricardo Pepi	F	70	0	0.28	0.30	ok	2	1.9	7.2	66.6	7
Team totals			1	1.48			15			7.0

Paraguay — projected line vs season baseline (3-5-2)

Player	Pos	Min	Proj xG	Season xG/g		Proj Sh	Season Sh/g	Proj Rtg	Season Rtg	Rec
Orlando Gill	G	89	-	-	n/a		0.0	6.9	47.1	9
Omar Alderete	D	88	0.07	0.00	2352%	1	0.2	6.8	45.0	9
Gustavo Gómez	D	89	0.05	0.02	134%	1	0.2	6.9	38.9	14
Juan Cáceres	D	70	0.00	0.01	100%	0	0.4	6.8	55.6	5
Diego Gómez	M	82	0.07	0.13	43%	1	1.3	6.9	42.0	9
Julio Enciso	M	78	0.10	0.14	30%	1	1.3	7.0	37.8	15
Mauricio	M	52	0.06	0.04	34%	1	0.5	6.6	36.5	13
Miguel Almirón	M	85	0.04	0.01	156%	1	0.4	6.8	28.1	9
Damián Bobadilla	M	78	0.02	0.03	50%	1	0.4	6.7	26.3	10
Ramón Sosa	F	64	0.04	0.00	1384%	2	0.1	7.0	11.8	11
Alex Arce	F	73	0.08	0.11	ok	2	0.5	6.9	29.5	10
Team totals			0.56			13			6.8

Antagonist / tactical summary

Midfield is evenly contested — Weston McKennie vs Diego Gómez will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 1.06, Away: 0.30. Home danger zone: Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat. Away danger zone: Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest.

Midfield — possession 50.9% / 49.1%, dominance ratio 0.53, key duel: Weston McKennie vs Diego Gómez

Johnny Cardoso xG 0.11Weston McKennie xG 0.06Malik Tillman xG 0.03Miguel Almirón xG 0.03Mauricio xG 0.05Julio Enciso xG 0.09

Summary

Antagonist matchup analysis for USA vs Paraguay. Most likely scoreline: 1-0. Lambdas derived from 7 home and 6 away individual player duels.

Tactical parity between 3-4-2-1 and 3-5-2. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Midfield is evenly contested — Weston McKennie vs Diego Gómez will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 1.06, Away: 0.30. Home danger zone: Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat. Away danger zone: Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest.

Haiti vs Scotland

FIFA World Cup · 20260613 · 4-4-2 vs 4-4-2

Predicted 0-1Winner: DrawConfidence 0.73λ home/away 0.85 / 1.40Most-likely P 14.7%

Actual vs predicted: result not available yet (upcoming fixture).

Lambda decomposition (how the goal rates were built)

Stage	Haiti λ	Scotland λ
Pre-mismatch	0.784	1.289
Pre-competitive-floor	0.767	1.398
Pre-calibration	0.784	1.289
Final λ	0.850	1.398

Scoreline distribution & markets

Top 5 scorelines	P
0-1	14.7%
1-1	12.6%
0-0	10.6%
0-2	10.3%
1-0	8.9%

Home win	22.8%
Draw	27.5%
Away win	49.8%
Over 2.5	39.0%
BTTS yes	43.2%

Projected players vs season baseline

Proj = projected for this match · Season = this season's per-game average from match data · deviation badge compares projected xG to the player's season xG/game.

Haiti — projected line vs season baseline (4-4-2)

Player	Pos	Min	Proj xG	Season xG/g		Proj Sh	Season Sh/g	Proj Rtg	Season Rtg	Rec
Wilson Isidor	F	22	0.11	0.05	100%	2	1.0	7.3	43.1	8
Frantzdy Pierrot	F	16	0.05	0.12	58%	1	0.7	6.3	43.5	6
Ruben Providence	M	90	0.05	0.02	154%	1	0.6	6.7	56.7	7
Jean-Ricner Bellegarde	M	18	0.00	0.06	100%	2	1.2	6.9	68.0	5
Danley Jean Jacques	M	90	0.05	-	n/a	1	0.0	6.7	47.9	7
Louicius Don Deedson	F	90	0.15	0.01	1361%	2	0.3	6.7	31.8	6
Martin Expérience	D	90	-	0.01	n/a		0.3	6.6	62.7	3
Hannes Delcroix	D	86	0.24	0.06	298%	1	0.6	7.0	69.2	8
Ricardo Adé	D	88	0.00	0.01	100%	0	0.2	6.4	32.1	21
Carlens Arcus	D	18	0.00	-	n/a	0	0.0	6.5	52.5	6
Johny Placide	G	90	-	-	n/a		0.0	6.7	68.0	3
Team totals			0.85			12			6.7

Scotland — projected line vs season baseline (4-4-2)

Player	Pos	Min	Proj G	Proj xG	Season xG/g		Proj Sh	Season Sh/g	Proj Rtg	Season Rtg	Rec
Che Adams	F	30	0	0.11	0.09	ok	2	0.5	6.4	22.2	12
Lawrence Shankland	F	76	1	0.22	0.12	86%	2	1.1	6.8	31.2	13
John McGinn	M	72	0	0.13	0.09	55%	2	0.8	7.1	42.5	22
Scott McTominay	M	95	0	0.12	0.16	ok	2	1.3	7.7	32.1	13
Lewis Ferguson	M	87	0	0.00	0.03	100%	2	0.5	6.8	41.5	15
Ben Gannon-Doak	M	22	0	0.00	0.02	100%	0	0.4	6.8	16.4	16
Andy Robertson	D	54	0	0.03	0.00	1546%	0	0.1	6.6	22.1	18
Jack Hendry	D	88	0	0.00	-	n/a	0	0.0	6.6	34.1	12
Grant Hanley	D	77	0	0.00	-	n/a	0	0.0	6.7	29.3	12
Aaron Hickey	D	52	0	0.00	0.00	100%	0	0.1	6.8	14.8	14
Angus Gunn	G	90	0	-	-	n/a		0.0	6.7	18.6	12
Team totals			1	1.40			12			6.8

Antagonist / tactical summary

Away midfield dictates play with ~52% possession expected (Jean-Ricner Bellegarde vs Scott McTominay). Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.42, Away: 0.53. Home danger zone: Right Mid vs Left Back — Wide Channel. Away danger zone: Right Mid vs Left Back — Wide Channel.

Midfield — possession 47.6% / 52.4%, dominance ratio 0.43, key duel: Jean-Ricner Bellegarde vs Scott McTominay

Wilson Isidor xG 0.11Ruben Providence xG 0.05Louicius Don Deedson xG 0.15Che Adams xG 0.11John McGinn xG 0.14Scott McTominay xG 0.16

Summary

Antagonist matchup analysis for Haiti vs Scotland. Most likely scoreline: 0-1. Lambdas derived from 4 home and 4 away individual player duels.

Tactical parity between 4-4-2 and 4-4-2. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Away midfield dictates play with ~52% possession expected (Jean-Ricner Bellegarde vs Scott McTominay). Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.42, Away: 0.53. Home danger zone: Right Mid vs Left Back — Wide Channel. Away danger zone: Right Mid vs Left Back — Wide Channel.

Qatar vs Switzerland

FIFA World Cup · 20260613 · 4-3-3 vs 4-2-3-1

Predicted 1-1Winner: DrawConfidence 0.75λ home/away 1.05 / 1.59Most-likely P 12.0%

Actual vs predicted: result not available yet (upcoming fixture).

Lambda decomposition (how the goal rates were built)

Stage	Qatar λ	Switzerland λ
Pre-mismatch	0.650	1.448
Pre-competitive-floor	0.650	1.589
Pre-calibration	0.650	1.448
Final λ	1.050	1.589

Scoreline distribution & markets

Top 5 scorelines	P
1-1	12.0%
0-1	11.3%
1-2	9.5%
0-2	9.0%
1-0	7.4%

Home win	25.0%
Draw	25.2%
Away win	49.8%
Over 2.5	49.1%
BTTS yes	51.8%

Projected players vs season baseline

Proj = projected for this match · Season = this season's per-game average from match data · deviation badge compares projected xG to the player's season xG/game.

Qatar — projected line vs season baseline (4-3-3)

Player	Pos	Min	Proj G	Proj xG	Season xG/g		Proj Sh	Season Sh/g	Proj Rtg	Season Rtg	Rec
Akram Afif	M	87	1	0.00	0.01	100%	3	1.5	92.2	55.0	11
Almoez Ali	M	90	0	0.05	0.01	521%	1	0.4	88.7	29.9	9
Edmilson Junior	M	88	0	0.00	0.06	100%	2	0.8	88.7	42.1	10
Karim Boudiaf	M	90	0	0.05	0.01	640%	1	0.3	86.7	46.0	3
Ahmed Fathi	M	83	0	0.00	-	n/a	1	0.0	88.1	68.4	7
Jassem Gaber Abdulsallam	M	85	0	0.00	-	n/a	0	0.1	86.7	66.9	7
Homam Al-Amin	D	90	0	-	0.00	n/a		0.3	86.6	39.0	3
Boualem Khoukhi	D	88	0	0.00	0.01	100%	1	0.6	85.4	66.1	8
Pedro Miguel	D	76	0	0.00	0.03	100%	1	1.2	86.8	67.2	8
Ayoub Al Oui	D	88	0	0.00	-	n/a	0	0.2	85.6	48.5	6
Mahmud Abunad	G	88	0	-	-	n/a		0.0	87.0	68.9	7
Team totals			1	1.05			11			87.5

Switzerland — projected line vs season baseline (4-2-3-1)

Player	Pos	Min	Proj G	Proj xG	Season xG/g		Proj Sh	Season Sh/g	Proj Rtg	Season Rtg	Rec
Breel Embolo	F	58	0	0.12	0.27	57%	2	1.0	83.7	32.7	15
Johan Manzambi	M	91	1	0.10	0.09	ok	2	1.1	74.7	41.6	25
Michel Aebischer	M	79	0	0.00	0.02	100%	0	0.1	80.5	26.8	15
Dan Ndoye	M	83	0	0.00	0.03	100%	3	0.6	86.3	18.2	23
Granit Xhaka	M	87	0	0.00	0.05	100%	2	0.3	92.4	29.7	18
Remo Freuler	M	77	0	0.00	0.03	100%	1	0.3	87.9	37.9	18
Manuel Akanji	D	92	0	0.00	0.02	100%	0	0.1	89.1	21.1	14
Nico Elvedi	D	90	0	0.06	0.03	107%	0	0.2	84.0	26.9	16
Silvan Widmer	M	71	0	0.00	-	n/a	0	0.0	79.0	17.8	19
Gregor Kobel	G	95	0	-	-	n/a		0.0	93.6	36.6	16
Ricardo Rodríguez	D	83	0	0.00	0.00	100%	0	0.1	80.3	33.8	18
Team totals			1	1.59			11			84.7

Antagonist / tactical summary

Away midfield dictates play with ~53% possession expected (Akram Afif vs Johan Manzambi). Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.15, Away: 0.89. Home danger zone: Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel. Away danger zone: Attacking Mid vs Single Holding Mid — Space Creator Duel.

Midfield — possession 47.2% / 52.8%, dominance ratio 0.44, key duel: Akram Afif vs Johan Manzambi

Ahmed Fathi xG 0.04Edmilson Junior xG 0.10Granit Xhaka xG 0.26Johan Manzambi xG 0.14Dan Ndoye xG 0.32

Summary

Antagonist matchup analysis for Qatar vs Switzerland. Most likely scoreline: 1-1. Lambdas derived from 2 home and 5 away individual player duels.

Tactical parity between 4-3-3 and 4-2-3-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Away midfield dictates play with ~53% possession expected (Akram Afif vs Johan Manzambi). Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.15, Away: 0.89. Home danger zone: Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel. Away danger zone: Attacking Mid vs Single Holding Mid — Space Creator Duel.

Australia vs Türkiye

FIFA World Cup · 20260613 · 5-4-1 vs 4-2-3-1

Predicted 1-1Winner: DrawConfidence 0.74λ home/away 1.05 / 1.48Most-likely P 12.5%

Actual vs predicted: result not available yet (upcoming fixture).

Lambda decomposition (how the goal rates were built)

Stage	Australia λ	Türkiye λ
Pre-mismatch	0.706	1.350
Pre-competitive-floor	0.687	1.482
Pre-calibration	0.706	1.350
Final λ	1.050	1.482

Scoreline distribution & markets

Top 5 scorelines	P
1-1	12.5%
0-1	11.7%
1-2	9.2%
0-2	8.7%
1-0	8.2%

Home win	26.7%
Draw	26.3%
Away win	47.0%
Over 2.5	46.4%
BTTS yes	50.3%

Projected players vs season baseline

Proj = projected for this match · Season = this season's per-game average from match data · deviation badge compares projected xG to the player's season xG/game.

Australia — projected line vs season baseline (5-4-1)

Player	Pos	Min	Proj G	Proj xG	Season xG/g		Proj Sh	Season Sh/g	Proj Rtg	Season Rtg	Rec
Mohamed Touré	F	90	0	0.10	0.02	374%	2	0.5	74.8	32.8	4
Mathew Leckie	M	90	0	0.05	0.01	309%	1	0.2	76.7	32.6	8
Aiden O'Neill	M	90	0	0.05	0.00	1555%	2	0.2	76.7	34.3	6
Jackson Irvine	M	86	0	0.09	0.09	ok	1	0.7	81.7	57.0	7
Connor Metcalfe	M	66	0	0.05	0.03	68%	2	0.9	75.2	51.2	8
Jordan Bos	D	90	0	0.17	0.07	138%	2	1.3	75.6	48.6	7
Lucas Herrington	D	90	0	-	-	n/a		0.0	65.6	21.0	10
Harry Souttar	D	90	0	-	0.01	n/a		0.2	79.6	52.5	4
Jacob Italiano	M	86	1	0.00	0.09	100%	1	0.4	69.8	42.1	10
Mathew Ryan	G	88	0	-	-	n/a		0.0	90.6	27.2	11
Alessandro Circati	D	92	0	0.00	0.08	100%	0	0.3	77.6	60.1	7
Team totals			1	1.05			13			76.7

Türkiye — projected line vs season baseline (4-2-3-1)

Player	Pos	Min	Proj G	Proj xG	Season xG/g		Proj Sh	Season Sh/g	Proj Rtg	Season Rtg	Rec
Ozan Kabak	D	74	0	0.17	0.06	208%	1	0.4	81.6	37.1	9
Zeki Çelik	D	79	0	0.00	0.03	100%	1	0.2	82.7	52.3	9
Uğurcan Çakır	G	92	0	-	-	n/a		0.0	86.9	64.4	9
Abdülkerim Bardakcı	D	84	0	0.04	0.02	79%	1	0.8	86.6	62.5	10
Eren Elmalı	D	29	0	0.02	0.00	1177%	0	0.1	81.6	34.5	12
Hakan Çalhanoğlu	M	89	0	0.00	0.06	99%	5	2.9	93.6	42.6	7
İsmail Yüksek	M	78	0	0.13	0.07	83%	2	1.5	84.3	58.3	10
Deniz Gül	F	32	0	0.00	0.20	99%	2	0.8	72.5	44.8	13
Barış Alper Yılmaz	M	87	0	0.00	0.08	100%	2	0.2	87.1	50.9	12
Orkun Kökçü	M	71	0	0.08	0.22	63%	2	1.8	89.6	63.5	10
Arda Güler	M	79	1	0.13	0.10	ok	3	1.4	88.7	48.0	17
Team totals			1	1.48			23			85.0

Antagonist / tactical summary

Away midfield dictates play with ~54% possession expected (Aiden O'Neill vs Arda Güler). Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.43, Away: 0.58. Home danger zone: Right Mid vs Left Back — Wide Channel. Away danger zone: LW vs CB.

Midfield — possession 46.1% / 53.9%, dominance ratio 0.39, key duel: Aiden O'Neill vs Arda Güler

Mohamed Touré xG 0.10Connor Metcalfe xG 0.05Jacob Italiano xG 0.12Barış Alper Yılmaz xG 0.32Arda Güler xG 0.16Orkun Kökçü xG 0.09

Summary

Antagonist matchup analysis for Australia vs Türkiye. Most likely scoreline: 1-1. Lambdas derived from 5 home and 4 away individual player duels.

Tactical parity between 5-4-1 and 4-2-3-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Away midfield dictates play with ~54% possession expected (Aiden O'Neill vs Arda Güler). Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.43, Away: 0.58. Home danger zone: Right Mid vs Left Back — Wide Channel. Away danger zone: LW vs CB.

Generated 2026-09-04 22:27:55 UTC · Soccer prediction reporting