Soccer predictions: actual data vs predicted data
Slate 20260615 · 5 match(es)
How to read this report. Each match shows the model's headline prediction, the stage-by-stage lambda (goal-rate) build, both teams' standing/form inputs, and every starter's projected line next to their real season baseline. A moderate / large deviation badge flags a projection that strays far from the player's season form — a quick way to spot when the inputs look right but a projection does not. When the real result is known an actual-vs-predicted banner appears.
All matches overview
| Match | Score | Winner | H / D / A | O2.5 | BTTS | Conf | λ H/A | Actual | Result |
|---|
| Spain vs Cabo Verde FIFA World Cup | 3-0 | Draw | 86.9% / 8.9% / 4.2% | 75.7% | 46.7% | 0.91 | 3.31 / 0.66 | - | pending |
| Belgium vs Egypt FIFA World Cup | 1-1 | Draw | 55.3% / 23.4% / 21.2% | 52.3% | 52.5% | 0.77 | 1.77 / 1.00 | - | pending |
| Iran vs New Zealand FIFA World Cup | 0-1 | Draw | 31.1% / 31.2% / 37.7% | 31.9% | 39.6% | 0.69 | 0.93 / 1.05 | - | pending |
| Sweden vs Tunisia FIFA World Cup | 2-0 | Draw | 81.2% / 13.4% / 5.3% | 57.3% | 35.4% | 0.87 | 2.49 / 0.49 | - | pending |
| Saudi Arabia vs Uruguay FIFA World Cup | 0-1 | Draw | 17.1% / 25.8% / 57.1% | 38.4% | 39.4% | 0.74 | 0.70 / 1.52 | - | pending |
Match detail
Spain vs Cabo Verde
FIFA World Cup · 20260615 · 4-2-3-1 vs 4-2-3-1
Predicted 3-0Winner: DrawConfidence 0.91λ home/away 3.31 / 0.66Most-likely P 11.4%
Actual vs predicted: result not available yet (upcoming fixture).
Lambda decomposition (how the goal rates were built)
| Stage | Spain λ | Cabo Verde λ |
|---|
| Pre-mismatch | 2.725 | 0.713 |
| Pre-calibration | 2.724 | 0.713 |
| Final λ | 3.310 | 0.663 |
competition calibration scale 1.0competition observed total goals 0.0quality gap applied Truemismatch score pressure applied Truecompetitive underdog floor applied Falsestage discount 1.0
Scoreline distribution & markets
| Top 5 scorelines | P |
|---|
| 3-0 | 11.4% |
| 2-0 | 10.3% |
| 4-0 | 9.4% |
| 3-1 | 7.6% |
| 2-1 | 6.9% |
| Home win | 86.9% |
| Draw | 8.9% |
| Away win | 4.2% |
| Over 2.5 | 75.7% |
| BTTS yes | 46.7% |
Projected players vs season baseline
Proj = projected for this match · Season = this season's per-game average from match data · deviation badge compares projected xG to the player's season xG/game.
Spain — projected line vs season baseline (4-2-3-1)
| Player | Pos | Min | Proj G | Proj xG | Season xG/g | | Proj Sh | Season Sh/g | Proj Rtg | Season Rtg | Rec |
|---|
| Mikel Oyarzabal | F | 52 | 1 | 0.33 | 0.30 | ok | 2 | 1.8 | 7.2 | 54.8 | 13 |
| Alex Baena | M | 35 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.04 | ok | 1 | 0.9 | 7.2 | 46.3 | 21 |
| Fabián Ruiz | M | 65 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 100% | 1 | 0.8 | 7.5 | 59.6 | 13 |
| Ferran Torres | F | 35 | 2 | 0.06 | 0.21 | 70% | 3 | 1.4 | 7.3 | 65.5 | 13 |
| Rodri | M | 94 | 0 | 0.19 | 0.06 | 226% | 2 | 1.0 | 8.3 | 50.5 | 15 |
| Pedri | M | 77 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 100% | 2 | 0.2 | 8.2 | 51.7 | 18 |
| Marc Cucurella | D | 94 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 100% | 0 | 0.2 | 6.7 | 46.3 | 16 |
| Aymeric Laporte | D | 90 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.02 | 50% | 1 | 0.4 | 6.8 | 46.4 | 14 |
| Pau Cubarsí | D | 84 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 100% | 0 | 0.2 | 7.5 | 43.7 | 18 |
| Unai Simón | G | 95 | 0 | - | - | n/a | | 0.0 | 6.9 | 41.5 | 15 |
| Marcos Llorente | D | 91 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.02 | 110% | 0 | 0.4 | 7.2 | 40.0 | 21 |
| Team totals | 3 | 3.31 | | 13 | | 7.3 | |
Cabo Verde — projected line vs season baseline (4-2-3-1)
| Player | Pos | Min | Proj G | Proj xG | Season xG/g | | Proj Sh | Season Sh/g | Proj Rtg | Season Rtg | Rec |
|---|
| Jovane Cabral | F | 90 | 0 | 0.13 | 0.11 | ok | 2 | 0.5 | 6.7 | 35.1 | 8 |
| Jamiro Monteiro | M | 48 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 100% | 1 | 0.8 | 6.8 | 55.7 | 6 |
| Ryan Mendes | M | 90 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.05 | ok | 2 | 1.0 | 6.7 | 51.0 | 4 |
| Kevin Lenini | M | 90 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.02 | 105% | 2 | 1.0 | 6.7 | 53.0 | 4 |
| Deroy Duarte | M | 90 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.01 | 625% | 1 | 0.2 | 6.7 | 52.0 | 4 |
| Diney Borges | D | 90 | 0 | - | 0.03 | n/a | | 0.5 | 6.6 | 56.8 | 4 |
| Logan Costa | D | 14 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | 0 | 0.0 | 7.0 | 13.6 | 10 |
| Pico | D | 90 | 0 | - | 0.06 | n/a | | 0.5 | 6.6 | 55.0 | 4 |
| Steven Moreira | D | 90 | 0 | - | 0.00 | n/a | | 0.1 | 6.6 | 33.5 | 8 |
| Vozinha | G | 90 | 0 | - | - | n/a | | 0.0 | 6.7 | 57.5 | 4 |
| Dailon Rocha Livramento | F | 90 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.05 | 96% | 2 | 1.2 | 6.7 | 50.2 | 9 |
| Team totals | 0 | 0.66 | | 11 | | 6.7 | |
Antagonist / tactical summary
Home midfield dominates with ~55% possession expected (Pedri vs Kevin Lenini). Total antagonist xG — Home: 1.00, Away: 0.33. Home danger zone: Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle. Away danger zone: Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle.
Midfield — possession 54.6% / 45.4%, dominance ratio 0.65, key duel: Pedri vs Kevin Lenini
Rodri xG 0.27Mikel Oyarzabal xG 0.33Pedri xG 0.28Ryan Mendes xG 0.04Jovane Cabral xG 0.13Kevin Lenini xG 0.03
Summary
Antagonist matchup analysis for Spain vs Cabo Verde. Most likely scoreline: 3-0. Lambdas derived from 5 home and 5 away individual player duels.
Tactical parity between 4-2-3-1 and 4-2-3-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Home midfield dominates with ~55% possession expected (Pedri vs Kevin Lenini). Total antagonist xG — Home: 1.00, Away: 0.33. Home danger zone: Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle. Away danger zone: Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle.
Belgium vs Egypt
FIFA World Cup · 20260615 · 4-2-3-1 vs 5-4-1
Predicted 1-1Winner: DrawConfidence 0.77λ home/away 1.77 / 1.00Most-likely P 11.1%
Actual vs predicted: result not available yet (upcoming fixture).
Lambda decomposition (how the goal rates were built)
| Stage | Belgium λ | Egypt λ |
|---|
| Pre-mismatch | 1.607 | 1.029 |
| Pre-competitive-floor | 1.767 | 1.001 |
| Pre-calibration | 1.607 | 1.029 |
| Final λ | 1.767 | 1.001 |
competition calibration scale 1.0competition observed total goals 0.0quality gap applied Truemismatch score pressure applied Truecompetitive underdog floor applied Falsestage discount 1.0
Scoreline distribution & markets
| Top 5 scorelines | P |
|---|
| 1-1 | 11.1% |
| 1-0 | 11.1% |
| 2-1 | 9.8% |
| 2-0 | 9.8% |
| 0-0 | 6.3% |
| Home win | 55.3% |
| Draw | 23.4% |
| Away win | 21.2% |
| Over 2.5 | 52.3% |
| BTTS yes | 52.5% |
Projected players vs season baseline
Proj = projected for this match · Season = this season's per-game average from match data · deviation badge compares projected xG to the player's season xG/game.
Belgium — projected line vs season baseline (4-2-3-1)
| Player | Pos | Min | Proj G | Proj xG | Season xG/g | | Proj Sh | Season Sh/g | Proj Rtg | Season Rtg | Rec |
|---|
| Thibaut Courtois | G | 84 | 0 | - | - | n/a | | 0.0 | 7.2 | 46.9 | 17 |
| Thomas Meunier | D | 71 | 0 | 0.15 | 0.02 | 708% | 1 | 0.3 | 6.9 | 31.5 | 13 |
| Nathan Ngoy | D | 95 | 0 | 0.12 | 0.02 | 404% | 1 | 0.4 | 7.3 | 45.2 | 12 |
| Charles De Ketelaere | F | 61 | 0 | 0.37 | 0.14 | 162% | 3 | 0.7 | 6.9 | 51.1 | 11 |
| Leandro Trossard | F | 48 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.15 | 74% | 2 | 1.6 | 6.8 | 45.3 | 19 |
| Kevin De Bruyne | M | 56 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.14 | 100% | 1 | 2.1 | 7.1 | 48.1 | 9 |
| Jérémy Doku | M | 95 | 1 | 0.14 | 0.04 | 217% | 3 | 0.8 | 8.3 | 42.8 | 17 |
| Amadou Onana | M | 67 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 100% | 0 | 0.3 | 7.4 | 43.2 | 16 |
| Youri Tielemans | M | 83 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.05 | ok | 2 | 0.9 | 7.9 | 48.8 | 18 |
| Timothy Castagne | D | 89 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.02 | 331% | 1 | 0.3 | 7.3 | 44.5 | 13 |
| Brandon Mechele | D | 88 | 0 | 0.13 | 0.07 | 92% | 1 | 0.5 | 7.3 | 59.2 | 11 |
| Team totals | 1 | 1.77 | | 16 | | 7.3 | |
Egypt — projected line vs season baseline (5-4-1)
| Player | Pos | Min | Proj G | Proj xG | Season xG/g | | Proj Sh | Season Sh/g | Proj Rtg | Season Rtg | Rec |
|---|
| Mahmoud Trézéguet | M | 89 | 1 | 0.82 | 0.17 | 373% | 2 | 1.5 | 7.9 | 35.9 | 8 |
| Emam Ashour | M | 88 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.11 | ok | 1 | 1.2 | 6.7 | 56.2 | 6 |
| Marwan Attia | M | 89 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 100% | 0 | 0.2 | 7.1 | 58.7 | 6 |
| Mohamed Salah | M | 70 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.28 | ok | 2 | 1.6 | 7.5 | 53.3 | 12 |
| Ahmed Fatouh | D | 90 | 0 | - | 0.01 | n/a | | 0.2 | 6.6 | 40.8 | 5 |
| Hamdy Fathy | M | 88 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | 2 | 0.4 | 8.3 | 44.6 | 11 |
| Yasser Ibrahim | D | 88 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 100% | 0 | 0.2 | 6.8 | 58.0 | 6 |
| Hossam Abdelmaguid | D | 88 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | 0 | 0.0 | 7.0 | 28.4 | 5 |
| Mohamed Hany | D | 88 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.02 | 48% | 1 | 0.8 | 6.9 | 55.0 | 6 |
| Mohamed El-Shenawy | G | 90 | 0 | - | - | n/a | | 0.0 | 6.7 | - | 5 |
| Omar Marmoush | F | 37 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.08 | ok | 3 | 1.1 | 8.0 | 44.7 | 14 |
| Team totals | 1 | 1.00 | | 12 | | 7.2 | |
Antagonist / tactical summary
Home midfield dominates with ~53% possession expected (Jérémy Doku vs Mohamed Salah). Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.63, Away: 1.32. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel.
Midfield — possession 53.3% / 46.7%, dominance ratio 0.58, key duel: Jérémy Doku vs Mohamed Salah
Youri Tielemans xG 0.04Jérémy Doku xG 0.17Charles De Ketelaere xG 0.37Omar Marmoush xG 0.09Mahmoud Trézéguet xG 0.80Mohamed Salah xG 0.27
Summary
Antagonist matchup analysis for Belgium vs Egypt. Most likely scoreline: 1-1. Lambdas derived from 4 home and 6 away individual player duels.
Tactical parity between 4-2-3-1 and 5-4-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Home midfield dominates with ~53% possession expected (Jérémy Doku vs Mohamed Salah). Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.63, Away: 1.32. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel.
Iran vs New Zealand
FIFA World Cup · 20260615 · 5-3-2 vs 4-2-3-1
Predicted 0-1Winner: DrawConfidence 0.69λ home/away 0.93 / 1.05Most-likely P 14.4%
Actual vs predicted: result not available yet (upcoming fixture).
Lambda decomposition (how the goal rates were built)
| Stage | Iran λ | New Zealand λ |
|---|
| Pre-competitive-floor | 0.928 | 1.055 |
| Pre-calibration | 0.928 | 1.055 |
| Final λ | 0.928 | 1.055 |
competition calibration scale 1.0competition observed total goals 0.0quality gap applied Falsemismatch score pressure applied Falsecompetitive underdog floor applied Falsestage discount 1.0
Scoreline distribution & markets
| Top 5 scorelines | P |
|---|
| 0-1 | 14.4% |
| 0-0 | 13.9% |
| 1-1 | 13.6% |
| 1-0 | 12.6% |
| 0-2 | 7.7% |
| Home win | 31.1% |
| Draw | 31.2% |
| Away win | 37.7% |
| Over 2.5 | 31.9% |
| BTTS yes | 39.6% |
Projected players vs season baseline
Proj = projected for this match · Season = this season's per-game average from match data · deviation badge compares projected xG to the player's season xG/game.
Iran — projected line vs season baseline (5-3-2)
| Player | Pos | Min | Proj G | Proj xG | Season xG/g | | Proj Sh | Season Sh/g | Proj Rtg | Season Rtg | Rec |
|---|
| Alireza Beiranvand | G | 90 | 0 | - | - | n/a | | 0.0 | 6.7 | 76.3 | 3 |
| Saleh Hardani | D | 90 | 0 | - | - | n/a | | 0.0 | 6.6 | 47.0 | 3 |
| Ramin Rezaeian | M | 90 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.12 | 57% | 1 | 0.8 | 6.7 | 45.4 | 5 |
| Mehdi Taremi | F | 28 | 0 | 0.18 | 0.30 | 39% | 1 | 2.0 | 6.6 | 56.9 | 7 |
| Shahriar Moghanlou | F | 90 | 0 | 0.15 | 0.07 | 135% | 2 | 1.0 | 6.9 | 67.0 | 3 |
| Mohammad Mohebi | F | 90 | 0 | 0.23 | 0.08 | 183% | 2 | 0.5 | 6.9 | 51.2 | 4 |
| Saeid Ezatolahi | M | 90 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.18 | 73% | 2 | 2.0 | 6.7 | 69.3 | 3 |
| Saman Ghoddos | M | 90 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.11 | 54% | 1 | 1.3 | 6.7 | 66.7 | 3 |
| Milad Mohammadi | D | 90 | 0 | - | 0.04 | n/a | | 0.3 | 6.6 | 66.0 | 3 |
| Shoja Khalilzadeh | D | 90 | 0 | - | 0.05 | n/a | | 0.7 | 6.6 | 70.7 | 3 |
| Hossein Kanaani | D | 90 | 0 | - | 0.05 | n/a | | 0.3 | 6.6 | 45.3 | 3 |
| Team totals | 0 | 0.93 | | 10 | | 6.7 | |
New Zealand — projected line vs season baseline (4-2-3-1)
| Player | Pos | Min | Proj G | Proj xG | Season xG/g | | Proj Sh | Season Sh/g | Proj Rtg | Season Rtg | Rec |
|---|
| Chris Wood | F | 52 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.20 | 95% | 2 | 0.9 | 6.4 | 54.3 | 12 |
| Sarpreet Singh | M | 19 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 100% | 1 | 1.2 | 6.5 | 63.8 | 4 |
| Matthew Garbett | M | 90 | 0 | 0.05 | - | n/a | 1 | - | 6.7 | - | 3 |
| Elijah Just | M | 86 | 1 | 0.50 | 0.16 | 224% | 2 | 2.4 | 6.8 | 72.7 | 7 |
| Marko Stamenić | M | 90 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.04 | ok | 1 | 1.0 | 6.7 | 68.3 | 3 |
| Joe Bell | M | 90 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.01 | 677% | 2 | 0.3 | 6.7 | 66.0 | 3 |
| Liberato Cacace | M | 90 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.01 | 1340% | 1 | 0.2 | 6.9 | 48.8 | 4 |
| Michael Boxall | D | 90 | 0 | - | - | n/a | | 0.0 | 6.6 | 45.4 | 7 |
| Finn Surman | D | 90 | 0 | - | 0.07 | n/a | | 0.2 | 6.6 | 42.6 | 8 |
| Tim Payne | D | 58 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 100% | 0 | 0.3 | 6.2 | 64.0 | 6 |
| Max Crocombe | G | 90 | 0 | - | - | n/a | | 0.0 | 6.7 | 63.3 | 3 |
| Team totals | 1 | 1.05 | | 11 | | 6.6 | |
Antagonist / tactical summary
Midfield is evenly contested — Saeid Ezatolahi vs Joe Bell will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.50, Away: 0.65. Home danger zone: Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run. Away danger zone: RW vs LWB + CB.
Midfield — possession 49.1% / 50.9%, dominance ratio 0.45, key duel: Saeid Ezatolahi vs Joe Bell
Shahriar Moghanlou xG 0.15Saleh Hardani xG 0.06Mehdi Taremi xG 0.18Sarpreet Singh xG 0.14Elijah Just xG 0.41Joe Bell xG 0.05
Summary
Antagonist matchup analysis for Iran vs New Zealand. Most likely scoreline: 0-1. Lambdas derived from 5 home and 5 away individual player duels.
Tactical parity between 5-3-2 and 4-2-3-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Midfield is evenly contested — Saeid Ezatolahi vs Joe Bell will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.50, Away: 0.65. Home danger zone: Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run. Away danger zone: RW vs LWB + CB.
Sweden vs Tunisia
FIFA World Cup · 20260615 · 3-4-2-1 vs 3-5-2
Predicted 2-0Winner: DrawConfidence 0.87λ home/away 2.49 / 0.49Most-likely P 15.8%
Actual vs predicted: result not available yet (upcoming fixture).
Lambda decomposition (how the goal rates were built)
| Stage | Sweden λ | Tunisia λ |
|---|
| Pre-mismatch | 2.099 | 0.539 |
| Pre-calibration | 2.099 | 0.539 |
| Final λ | 2.494 | 0.488 |
competition calibration scale 1.0competition observed total goals 0.0quality gap applied Truemismatch score pressure applied Truestage discount 1.0
Scoreline distribution & markets
| Top 5 scorelines | P |
|---|
| 2-0 | 15.8% |
| 3-0 | 13.1% |
| 1-0 | 12.6% |
| 4-0 | 8.2% |
| 2-1 | 7.7% |
| Home win | 81.2% |
| Draw | 13.4% |
| Away win | 5.3% |
| Over 2.5 | 57.3% |
| BTTS yes | 35.4% |
Projected players vs season baseline
Proj = projected for this match · Season = this season's per-game average from match data · deviation badge compares projected xG to the player's season xG/game.
Sweden — projected line vs season baseline (3-4-2-1)
| Player | Pos | Min | Proj G | Proj xG | Season xG/g | | Proj Sh | Season Sh/g | Proj Rtg | Season Rtg | Rec |
|---|
| Melker Ellborg | G | 88 | 0 | - | - | n/a | | 0.0 | 6.7 | - | 7 |
| Gabriel Gudmundsson | D | 57 | 0 | 0.04 | - | n/a | 1 | 0.2 | 6.9 | 36.8 | 11 |
| Isak Hien | D | 68 | 0 | 0.22 | 0.01 | 4202% | 0 | 0.2 | 7.0 | 56.7 | 9 |
| Victor Lindelöf | D | 89 | 0 | 0.14 | 0.02 | 825% | 0 | 0.1 | 6.7 | 37.2 | 21 |
| Lucas Bergvall | M | 32 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 100% | 2 | 0.4 | 7.1 | 41.0 | 13 |
| Hugo Larsson | M | 89 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | 2 | 0.0 | 7.4 | 13.4 | 5 |
| Yasin Ayari | M | 64 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.02 | 89% | 1 | 0.7 | 7.0 | 45.9 | 12 |
| Daniel Svensson | M | 80 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 100% | 1 | 0.1 | 7.1 | 32.9 | 14 |
| Viktor Gyökeres | F | 80 | 1 | 0.34 | 0.19 | 78% | 3 | 1.6 | 7.3 | 57.7 | 18 |
| Anthony Elanga | F | 68 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.11 | ok | 3 | 0.6 | 7.0 | 39.9 | 16 |
| Roony Bardghji | F | 38 | 0 | 0.27 | 0.01 | 2869% | 3 | 0.2 | 6.8 | 16.6 | 12 |
| Team totals | 2 | 2.49 | | 16 | | 7.0 | |
Tunisia — projected line vs season baseline (3-5-2)
| Player | Pos | Min | Proj G | Proj xG | Season xG/g | | Proj Sh | Season Sh/g | Proj Rtg | Season Rtg | Rec |
|---|
| Aymen Dahmen | G | 90 | 0 | - | - | n/a | | 0.0 | 6.7 | 42.7 | 3 |
| Ali Abdi | D | 52 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.10 | ok | 1 | 1.0 | 6.4 | 56.6 | 8 |
| Alaa Ghram | D | 70 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.01 | 423% | 0 | 0.2 | 6.6 | 68.8 | 4 |
| Yan Valery | D | 69 | 0 | 0.12 | 0.04 | 204% | 0 | 0.2 | 6.6 | 56.2 | 8 |
| Sebastian Tounekti | M | 77 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.01 | 437% | 1 | 0.2 | 6.5 | 38.3 | 10 |
| Ellyes Skhiri | M | 63 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.01 | ok | 0 | 0.1 | 6.7 | 56.7 | 7 |
| Ismael Gharbi | M | 90 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.05 | 46% | 1 | 0.6 | 6.7 | 38.6 | 5 |
| Anis Ben Slimane | M | 90 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.03 | 75% | 1 | 0.2 | 6.7 | 47.8 | 4 |
| Mohamed Belhadj Mahmoud | M | 53 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.13 | 65% | 1 | 1.2 | 6.5 | 61.8 | 8 |
| Louey Ben Farhat | F | 90 | 0 | 0.10 | - | n/a | 2 | - | 6.8 | - | 0 |
| Elias Saad | F | 90 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.01 | 977% | 2 | 0.3 | 6.7 | 42.7 | 3 |
| Team totals | 0 | 0.49 | | 11 | | 6.6 | |
Antagonist / tactical summary
Home midfield dominates with ~53% possession expected (Lucas Bergvall vs Sebastian Tounekti). Total antagonist xG — Home: 1.25, Away: 0.37. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle.
Midfield — possession 53.4% / 46.6%, dominance ratio 0.59, key duel: Lucas Bergvall vs Sebastian Tounekti
Yasin Ayari xG 0.05Hugo Larsson xG 0.18Lucas Bergvall xG 0.19Ismael Gharbi xG 0.05Mohamed Belhadj Mahmoud xG 0.03Sebastian Tounekti xG 0.02
Summary
Antagonist matchup analysis for Sweden vs Tunisia. Most likely scoreline: 2-0. Lambdas derived from 7 home and 6 away individual player duels.
Tactical parity between 3-4-2-1 and 3-5-2. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Home midfield dominates with ~53% possession expected (Lucas Bergvall vs Sebastian Tounekti). Total antagonist xG — Home: 1.25, Away: 0.37. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle.
Saudi Arabia vs Uruguay
FIFA World Cup · 20260615 · 4-3-3 vs 4-2-3-1
Predicted 0-1Winner: DrawConfidence 0.74λ home/away 0.70 / 1.52Most-likely P 16.5%
Actual vs predicted: result not available yet (upcoming fixture).
Lambda decomposition (how the goal rates were built)
| Stage | Saudi Arabia λ | Uruguay λ |
|---|
| Pre-mismatch | 0.714 | 1.336 |
| Pre-competitive-floor | 0.683 | 1.525 |
| Pre-calibration | 0.714 | 1.336 |
| Final λ | 0.700 | 1.525 |
competition calibration scale 1.0competition observed total goals 0.0quality gap applied Truemismatch score pressure applied Truecompetitive underdog floor applied Truestage discount 1.0
Scoreline distribution & markets
| Top 5 scorelines | P |
|---|
| 0-1 | 16.5% |
| 0-2 | 12.6% |
| 1-1 | 11.5% |
| 0-0 | 10.8% |
| 1-2 | 8.8% |
| Home win | 17.1% |
| Draw | 25.8% |
| Away win | 57.1% |
| Over 2.5 | 38.4% |
| BTTS yes | 39.4% |
Projected players vs season baseline
Proj = projected for this match · Season = this season's per-game average from match data · deviation badge compares projected xG to the player's season xG/game.
Saudi Arabia — projected line vs season baseline (4-3-3)
| Player | Pos | Min | Proj G | Proj xG | Season xG/g | | Proj Sh | Season Sh/g | Proj Rtg | Season Rtg | Rec |
|---|
| Nawaf Al-Aqidi | G | 90 | 0 | - | - | n/a | | 0.0 | 6.7 | - | 5 |
| Saud Abdulhamid | M | 63 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 100% | 1 | 0.2 | 6.4 | 40.4 | 8 |
| Hassan Altambakti | D | 65 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | 0 | 0.0 | 6.8 | 66.0 | 7 |
| Salem Al-Dawsari | M | 7 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 100% | 2 | 0.8 | 2.5 | 52.7 | 6 |
| Firas Al-Buraikan | F | 50 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.11 | 94% | 2 | 0.4 | 7.1 | 66.0 | 7 |
| Sultan Mandash | F | 21 | 0 | 0.18 | 0.09 | 99% | 2 | 0.5 | 6.9 | 46.5 | 8 |
| Ziyad Aljohani | M | 39 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 100% | 0 | 0.1 | 6.6 | 28.3 | 7 |
| Musab Al Juwayr | M | 82 | 0 | 0.40 | 0.10 | 297% | 3 | 1.1 | 7.7 | 61.6 | 7 |
| Mohamed Kanno | M | 88 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 100% | 1 | 0.8 | 6.5 | 59.1 | 8 |
| Moteb Al-Harbi | D | 74 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | 0 | 0.0 | 6.9 | 68.1 | 7 |
| Abdulelah Al-Amri | D | 88 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 100% | 0 | 0.7 | 6.6 | 68.0 | 6 |
| Team totals | 0 | 0.70 | | 12 | | 6.4 | |
Uruguay — projected line vs season baseline (4-2-3-1)
| Player | Pos | Min | Proj G | Proj xG | Season xG/g | | Proj Sh | Season Sh/g | Proj Rtg | Season Rtg | Rec |
|---|
| Maximiliano Araújo | D | 94 | 0 | 0.13 | 0.19 | 32% | 2 | 1.0 | 7.1 | 53.9 | 12 |
| Federico Viñas | F | 42 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.13 | 70% | 2 | 1.5 | 6.5 | 55.0 | 6 |
| Federico Valverde | M | 95 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.18 | 67% | 2 | 1.5 | 7.9 | 50.0 | 13 |
| Rodrigo Bentancur | M | 66 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 100% | 1 | 0.8 | 7.2 | 51.4 | 8 |
| Manuel Ugarte | M | 87 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 100% | 1 | 0.4 | 7.4 | 27.9 | 7 |
| Matías Viña | D | 78 | 0 | 0.03 | - | n/a | 0 | 0.0 | 6.7 | 25.2 | 8 |
| Mathías Olivera | D | 68 | 0 | 0.26 | 0.01 | 3041% | 0 | 0.2 | 7.2 | 58.3 | 6 |
| Sebastián Cáceres | D | 61 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 100% | 0 | 0.5 | 6.6 | 54.3 | 6 |
| Darwin Núñez | F | 82 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.07 | ok | 3 | 0.7 | 7.0 | 63.7 | 3 |
| Guillermo Varela | D | 57 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 100% | 0 | 0.2 | 6.6 | 32.6 | 12 |
| Fernando Muslera | G | 88 | 0 | - | - | n/a | | 0.0 | 6.8 | 34.6 | 11 |
| Team totals | 1 | 1.52 | | 12 | | 7.0 | |
Antagonist / tactical summary
Away midfield dictates play with ~54% possession expected (Saud Abdulhamid vs Federico Valverde). Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.50, Away: 0.43. Home danger zone: Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle. Away danger zone: Attacking Mid vs Single Holding Mid — Space Creator Duel.
Midfield — possession 46.0% / 54.0%, dominance ratio 0.40, key duel: Saud Abdulhamid vs Federico Valverde
Sultan Mandash xG 0.18Salem Al-Dawsari xG 0.16Firas Al-Buraikan xG 0.01Federico Valverde xG 0.08Federico Viñas xG 0.04Guillermo Varela xG 0.15
Summary
Antagonist matchup analysis for Saudi Arabia vs Uruguay. Most likely scoreline: 0-1. Lambdas derived from 5 home and 5 away individual player duels.
Tactical parity between 4-3-3 and 4-2-3-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Away midfield dictates play with ~54% possession expected (Saud Abdulhamid vs Federico Valverde). Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.50, Away: 0.43. Home danger zone: Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle. Away danger zone: Attacking Mid vs Single Holding Mid — Space Creator Duel.
Generated 2026-09-04 22:27:55 UTC · Soccer prediction reporting