Soccer predictions: actual data vs predicted data
Slate 20260616 · 5 match(es)
How to read this report. Each match shows the model's headline prediction, the stage-by-stage lambda (goal-rate) build, both teams' standing/form inputs, and every starter's projected line next to their real season baseline. A moderate / large deviation badge flags a projection that strays far from the player's season form — a quick way to spot when the inputs look right but a projection does not. When the real result is known an actual-vs-predicted banner appears.
All matches overview
| Match | Score | Winner | H / D / A | O2.5 | BTTS | Conf | λ H/A | Actual | Result |
|---|
| Argentina vs Algeria FIFA World Cup | 1-1 | Draw | 51.5% / 24.8% / 23.7% | 49.3% | 51.4% | 0.75 | 1.63 / 1.02 | - | pending |
| Austria vs Jordan FIFA World Cup | 2-0 | Draw | 73.6% / 17.0% / 9.4% | 56.6% | 44.1% | 0.83 | 2.28 / 0.68 | - | pending |
| Iraq vs Norway FIFA World Cup | 0-2 | Draw | 7.3% / 13.7% / 79.0% | 64.9% | 46.3% | 0.86 | 0.69 / 2.65 | - | pending |
| Iran vs New Zealand FIFA World Cup | 1-0 | Draw | 50.0% / 27.7% / 22.3% | 38.3% | 42.4% | 0.72 | 1.39 / 0.83 | - | pending |
| France vs Senegal FIFA World Cup | 2-0 | Draw | 76.5% / 14.9% / 8.6% | 63.5% | 47.9% | 0.85 | 2.54 / 0.73 | - | pending |
Match detail
Argentina vs Algeria
FIFA World Cup · 20260616 · 4-3-3 vs 4-2-3-1
Predicted 1-1Winner: DrawConfidence 0.75λ home/away 1.63 / 1.02Most-likely P 11.8%
Actual vs predicted: result not available yet (upcoming fixture).
Lambda decomposition (how the goal rates were built)
| Stage | Argentina λ | Algeria λ |
|---|
| Pre-competitive-floor | 1.626 | 0.922 |
| Pre-calibration | 1.626 | 0.922 |
| Final λ | 1.626 | 1.020 |
competition calibration scale 1.0competition observed total goals 0.0quality gap applied Truemismatch score pressure applied Falsecompetitive underdog floor applied Truestage discount 1.0
Scoreline distribution & markets
| Top 5 scorelines | P |
|---|
| 1-1 | 11.8% |
| 1-0 | 11.5% |
| 2-1 | 9.6% |
| 2-0 | 9.4% |
| 0-1 | 7.2% |
| Home win | 51.5% |
| Draw | 24.8% |
| Away win | 23.7% |
| Over 2.5 | 49.3% |
| BTTS yes | 51.4% |
Projected players vs season baseline
Proj = projected for this match · Season = this season's per-game average from match data · deviation badge compares projected xG to the player's season xG/game.
Argentina — projected line vs season baseline (4-3-3)
| Player | Pos | Min | Proj G | Proj xG | Season xG/g | | Proj Sh | Season Sh/g | Proj Rtg | Season Rtg | Rec |
|---|
| Emiliano Martínez | G | 91 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | | 0.0 | 92.1 | 48.4 | 20 |
| Gonzalo Montiel | D | 57 | 0 | 0.84 | 0.07 | 1179% | 0 | 0.1 | 84.5 | 22.1 | 12 |
| Lisandro Martínez | D | 95 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.01 | 481% | 1 | 0.2 | 88.6 | 38.2 | 13 |
| Cristian Romero | D | 95 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.03 | 206% | 0 | 0.2 | 89.4 | 32.4 | 13 |
| Thiago Almada | M | 57 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 100% | 1 | 0.1 | 85.8 | 31.3 | 15 |
| Lautaro Martínez | F | 54 | 0 | 0.13 | 0.37 | 64% | 2 | 1.3 | 95.3 | 55.1 | 10 |
| Lionel Messi | F | 78 | 1 | 0.14 | 0.49 | 71% | 2 | 2.8 | 94.1 | 51.8 | 12 |
| Rodrigo De Paul | M | 82 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 100% | 2 | 0.5 | 91.3 | 38.3 | 11 |
| Enzo Fernández | M | 83 | 0 | 0.12 | 0.09 | 42% | 2 | 0.9 | 91.5 | 39.2 | 15 |
| Alexis Mac Allister | M | 95 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.13 | ok | 2 | 1.2 | 94.4 | 42.6 | 17 |
| Facundo Medina | D | 58 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | 0 | 0.0 | 85.9 | 31.3 | 9 |
| Team totals | 1 | 1.63 | | 13 | | 90.3 | |
Algeria — projected line vs season baseline (4-2-3-1)
| Player | Pos | Min | Proj G | Proj xG | Season xG/g | | Proj Sh | Season Sh/g | Proj Rtg | Season Rtg | Rec |
|---|
| Mohamed Amoura | F | 13 | 0 | 0.14 | - | n/a | 2 | 0.0 | 86.9 | 32.7 | 6 |
| Houssem Aouar | M | 90 | 1 | 0.32 | 0.29 | ok | 2 | 2.0 | 84.0 | 60.6 | 7 |
| Riyad Mahrez | M | 86 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.25 | 73% | 2 | 1.8 | 91.3 | 64.9 | 8 |
| Nabil Bentaleb | M | 67 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 100% | 1 | 0.6 | 84.0 | 70.6 | 8 |
| Ramiz Zerrouki | M | 84 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.02 | ok | 2 | 0.7 | 79.9 | 58.6 | 7 |
| Rayan Aït-Nouri | D | 44 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.02 | ok | 0 | 0.2 | 88.4 | 44.2 | 12 |
| Ramy Bensebaini | D | 90 | 0 | 0.18 | 0.09 | 106% | 2 | 0.8 | 87.3 | 73.4 | 5 |
| Aïssa Mandi | D | 74 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.01 | 371% | 1 | 0.3 | 81.7 | 52.9 | 13 |
| Achref Abada | D | 90 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | | 0.0 | 89.6 | - | 4 |
| Luca Zidane | G | 90 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | | 0.0 | 77.7 | 47.5 | 4 |
| Amine Gouiri | F | 95 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.20 | 72% | 2 | 1.2 | 85.5 | 67.0 | 6 |
| Team totals | 1 | 1.02 | | 17 | | 85.1 | |
Antagonist / tactical summary
Home midfield dominates with ~53% possession expected (Enzo Fernández vs Houssem Aouar). Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.73, Away: 1.17. Home danger zone: Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle. Away danger zone: Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle.
Midfield — possession 53.3% / 46.7%, dominance ratio 0.60, key duel: Enzo Fernández vs Houssem Aouar
Lionel Messi xG 0.13Rodrigo De Paul xG 0.26Lautaro Martínez xG 0.12Houssem Aouar xG 0.58Mohamed Amoura xG 0.29Riyad Mahrez xG 0.14
Summary
Antagonist matchup analysis for Argentina vs Algeria. Most likely scoreline: 1-1. Lambdas derived from 5 home and 5 away individual player duels.
Tactical parity between 4-3-3 and 4-2-3-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Home midfield dominates with ~53% possession expected (Enzo Fernández vs Houssem Aouar). Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.73, Away: 1.17. Home danger zone: Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle. Away danger zone: Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle.
Austria vs Jordan
FIFA World Cup · 20260616 · 4-2-3-1 vs 3-5-2
Predicted 2-0Winner: DrawConfidence 0.83λ home/away 2.28 / 0.68Most-likely P 13.5%
Actual vs predicted: result not available yet (upcoming fixture).
Lambda decomposition (how the goal rates were built)
| Stage | Austria λ | Jordan λ |
|---|
| Pre-mismatch | 2.043 | 0.699 |
| Pre-calibration | 2.043 | 0.699 |
| Final λ | 2.277 | 0.675 |
competition calibration scale 1.0competition observed total goals 0.0quality gap applied Truemismatch score pressure applied Truecompetitive underdog floor applied Falsestage discount 1.0
Scoreline distribution & markets
| Top 5 scorelines | P |
|---|
| 2-0 | 13.5% |
| 1-0 | 11.9% |
| 3-0 | 10.3% |
| 2-1 | 9.1% |
| 1-1 | 8.1% |
| Home win | 73.6% |
| Draw | 17.0% |
| Away win | 9.4% |
| Over 2.5 | 56.6% |
| BTTS yes | 44.1% |
Projected players vs season baseline
Proj = projected for this match · Season = this season's per-game average from match data · deviation badge compares projected xG to the player's season xG/game.
Austria — projected line vs season baseline (4-2-3-1)
| Player | Pos | Min | Proj G | Proj xG | Season xG/g | | Proj Sh | Season Sh/g | Proj Rtg | Season Rtg | Rec |
|---|
| Florian Wiegele | G | 88 | 0 | - | - | n/a | | 0.0 | 73.8 | 26.5 | 8 |
| Konrad Laimer | D | 82 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.04 | 68% | 0 | 0.2 | 89.0 | 48.9 | 16 |
| Kevin Danso | D | 79 | 0 | 0.12 | 0.03 | 301% | 1 | 0.5 | 86.1 | 49.7 | 12 |
| Marco Friedl | D | 76 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | 0 | 0.0 | 83.4 | 32.8 | 8 |
| Philipp Lienhart | D | 77 | 0 | 0.16 | 0.06 | 184% | 1 | 0.4 | 85.6 | 50.2 | 16 |
| Christoph Baumgartner | M | 93 | 1 | 0.24 | 0.14 | 71% | 1 | 1.1 | 84.2 | 28.7 | 7 |
| Nicolas Seiwald | M | 76 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.03 | 81% | 1 | 0.5 | 84.0 | 60.1 | 8 |
| Paul Wanner | M | 93 | 1 | 0.51 | 0.17 | 201% | 2 | 0.9 | 80.0 | 59.6 | 7 |
| Carney Chukwuemeka | M | 49 | 0 | 0.15 | 0.03 | 355% | 2 | 0.3 | 82.8 | 43.0 | 9 |
| Romano Schmid | M | 75 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.04 | 33% | 2 | 0.8 | 84.7 | 61.0 | 8 |
| Saša Kalajdžić | F | 79 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.13 | 35% | 2 | 1.3 | 80.7 | 56.9 | 10 |
| Team totals | 2 | 2.28 | | 13 | | 83.1 | |
Jordan — projected line vs season baseline (3-5-2)
| Player | Pos | Min | Proj G | Proj xG | Season xG/g | | Proj Sh | Season Sh/g | Proj Rtg | Season Rtg | Rec |
|---|
| Yazeed Abu Laila | G | 90 | 0 | - | - | n/a | | 0.0 | 87.7 | 64.3 | 3 |
| Yazan Al-Arab | D | 78 | 0 | 0.01 | - | n/a | 2 | 0.4 | 81.5 | 38.0 | 14 |
| Abdallah Nasib | D | 90 | 0 | 0.01 | - | n/a | | 0.0 | 86.6 | 63.7 | 3 |
| Mohammad Ali Hasheesh | D | 90 | 0 | 0.01 | - | n/a | | 0.0 | 87.6 | 17.5 | 4 |
| Nizar Mahmoud Al-Rashdan | M | 88 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.06 | 44% | 1 | 0.9 | 86.8 | 69.3 | 7 |
| Mohannad Abu Taha | M | 90 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.01 | 297% | 1 | 0.2 | 87.7 | 50.8 | 4 |
| Amer Jamous | M | 90 | 0 | 0.05 | - | n/a | 1 | 0.0 | 87.7 | 21.3 | 3 |
| Ibrahim Sadeh | M | 90 | 0 | 0.05 | - | n/a | 1 | 0.0 | 87.7 | - | 4 |
| Noor Al-Deen Al Rawabdeh | M | 90 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.01 | 302% | 1 | 0.3 | 86.7 | 67.3 | 3 |
| Mousa Tamari | F | 90 | 0 | 0.13 | 0.23 | 41% | 2 | 2.7 | 90.6 | 69.2 | 6 |
| Ali Olwan | F | 90 | 0 | 0.27 | 0.09 | 199% | 2 | 2.0 | 89.7 | 69.7 | 3 |
| Team totals | 0 | 0.68 | | 11 | | 87.3 | |
Antagonist / tactical summary
Home midfield dominates with ~53% possession expected (Christoph Baumgartner vs Nizar Mahmoud Al-Rashdan). Total antagonist xG — Home: 1.18, Away: 0.26. Home danger zone: Right Wing vs Left Wingback — Compact Flank. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle.
Midfield — possession 53.4% / 46.6%, dominance ratio 0.61, key duel: Christoph Baumgartner vs Nizar Mahmoud Al-Rashdan
Romano Schmid xG 0.03Paul Wanner xG 0.63Carney Chukwuemeka xG 0.14Mousa Tamari xG 0.13Ibrahim Sadeh xG 0.04Noor Al-Deen Al Rawabdeh xG 0.03
Summary
Antagonist matchup analysis for Austria vs Jordan. Most likely scoreline: 2-0. Lambdas derived from 5 home and 5 away individual player duels.
Tactical parity between 4-2-3-1 and 3-5-2. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Home midfield dominates with ~53% possession expected (Christoph Baumgartner vs Nizar Mahmoud Al-Rashdan). Total antagonist xG — Home: 1.18, Away: 0.26. Home danger zone: Right Wing vs Left Wingback — Compact Flank. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle.
Iraq vs Norway
FIFA World Cup · 20260616 · 4-2-3-1 vs 4-3-3
Predicted 0-2Winner: DrawConfidence 0.86λ home/away 0.69 / 2.65Most-likely P 12.4%
Actual vs predicted: result not available yet (upcoming fixture).
Lambda decomposition (how the goal rates were built)
| Stage | Iraq λ | Norway λ |
|---|
| Pre-mismatch | 0.718 | 2.353 |
| Pre-calibration | 0.718 | 2.353 |
| Final λ | 0.690 | 2.651 |
competition calibration scale 1.0competition observed total goals 0.0quality gap applied Truemismatch score pressure applied Truecompetitive underdog floor applied Falsestage discount 1.0
Scoreline distribution & markets
| Top 5 scorelines | P |
|---|
| 0-2 | 12.4% |
| 0-3 | 11.0% |
| 0-1 | 9.4% |
| 1-2 | 8.6% |
| 1-3 | 7.6% |
| Home win | 7.3% |
| Draw | 13.7% |
| Away win | 79.0% |
| Over 2.5 | 64.9% |
| BTTS yes | 46.3% |
Projected players vs season baseline
Proj = projected for this match · Season = this season's per-game average from match data · deviation badge compares projected xG to the player's season xG/game.
Iraq — projected line vs season baseline (4-2-3-1)
| Player | Pos | Min | Proj G | Proj xG | Season xG/g | | Proj Sh | Season Sh/g | Proj Rtg | Season Rtg | Rec |
|---|
| Fahad Talib | G | 90 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | | 0.0 | 87.7 | - | 3 |
| Hussein Ali | D | 90 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 100% | | 0.3 | 87.6 | 40.3 | 3 |
| Rebin Sulaka | D | 90 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 100% | | 0.3 | 86.6 | 31.0 | 3 |
| Zaid Tahseen | D | 82 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.01 | ok | 0 | 0.3 | 86.8 | 29.3 | 11 |
| Aymen Hussein | F | 90 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.05 | 126% | 2 | 0.8 | 90.7 | 34.5 | 4 |
| Ali Al-Hamadi | F | 90 | 0 | 0.18 | 0.15 | ok | 2 | 1.2 | 72.7 | 39.0 | 5 |
| Ali Jasim | M | 90 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.04 | 54% | 2 | 1.0 | 68.7 | 38.1 | 7 |
| Ibrahim Bayesh | M | 90 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.06 | ok | 1 | 0.3 | 74.7 | 64.0 | 3 |
| Zidane Iqbal | M | 90 | 0 | 0.06 | - | n/a | 2 | 0.0 | 74.7 | 65.7 | 3 |
| Amir Al-Ammari | M | 90 | 0 | 0.06 | - | n/a | 1 | 0.0 | 71.7 | 65.7 | 3 |
| Merchas Doski | D | 88 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 287% | 0 | 0.3 | 74.7 | 67.2 | 6 |
| Team totals | 0 | 0.69 | | 12 | | 79.7 | |
Norway — projected line vs season baseline (4-3-3)
| Player | Pos | Min | Proj G | Proj xG | Season xG/g | | Proj Sh | Season Sh/g | Proj Rtg | Season Rtg | Rec |
|---|
| Antonio Nusa | F | 48 | 0 | 0.22 | 0.03 | 789% | 2 | 0.6 | 83.2 | 44.3 | 12 |
| Erling Haaland | F | 91 | 2 | 1.91 | 0.46 | 314% | 3 | 2.1 | 98.1 | 40.1 | 15 |
| Alexander Sørloth | F | 32 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.06 | 57% | 2 | 0.5 | 90.7 | 41.4 | 19 |
| Fredrik Aursnes | M | 87 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 100% | 2 | 0.3 | 87.0 | 51.0 | 12 |
| Patrick Berg | M | 77 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 100% | 0 | 0.4 | 84.0 | 53.5 | 8 |
| Martin Ødegaard | M | 60 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.12 | 100% | 1 | 0.8 | 94.8 | 39.2 | 16 |
| David Møller Wolfe | D | 73 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | 0 | 0.0 | 79.4 | 46.8 | 10 |
| Torbjørn Heggem | D | 50 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 100% | 0 | 0.1 | 79.8 | 46.0 | 13 |
| Kristoffer Ajer | D | 91 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 100% | 0 | 0.1 | 81.7 | 31.5 | 13 |
| Ørjan Nyland | G | 88 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | | 0.0 | 82.3 | 35.2 | 10 |
| Julian Ryerson | M | 92 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 100% | 1 | 0.2 | 86.2 | 34.6 | 14 |
| Team totals | 2 | 2.65 | | 12 | | 86.1 | |
Antagonist / tactical summary
Away midfield dictates play with ~52% possession expected (Zidane Iqbal vs Martin Ødegaard). Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.39, Away: 0.70. Home danger zone: Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle.
Midfield — possession 47.5% / 52.5%, dominance ratio 0.39, key duel: Zidane Iqbal vs Martin Ødegaard
Ali Jasim xG 0.05Ali Al-Hamadi xG 0.15Zidane Iqbal xG 0.04Antonio Nusa xG 0.05Alexander Sørloth xG 0.01Erling Haaland xG 0.42
Summary
Antagonist matchup analysis for Iraq vs Norway. Most likely scoreline: 0-2. Lambdas derived from 5 home and 5 away individual player duels.
Tactical parity between 4-2-3-1 and 4-3-3. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Away midfield dictates play with ~52% possession expected (Zidane Iqbal vs Martin Ødegaard). Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.39, Away: 0.70. Home danger zone: Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle.
Iran vs New Zealand
FIFA World Cup · 20260616 · 3-4-2-1 vs 3-5-2
Predicted 1-0Winner: DrawConfidence 0.72λ home/away 1.39 / 0.83Most-likely P 15.0%
Actual vs predicted: result not available yet (upcoming fixture).
Lambda decomposition (how the goal rates were built)
| Stage | Iran λ | New Zealand λ |
|---|
| Pre-calibration | 1.391 | 0.829 |
| Final λ | 1.391 | 0.829 |
competition calibration scale 1.0competition observed total goals 0.0quality gap applied Falsemismatch score pressure applied Falsestage discount 1.0
Scoreline distribution & markets
| Top 5 scorelines | P |
|---|
| 1-0 | 15.0% |
| 1-1 | 12.6% |
| 0-0 | 10.9% |
| 2-0 | 10.5% |
| 0-1 | 8.9% |
| Home win | 50.0% |
| Draw | 27.7% |
| Away win | 22.3% |
| Over 2.5 | 38.3% |
| BTTS yes | 42.4% |
Projected players vs season baseline
Proj = projected for this match · Season = this season's per-game average from match data · deviation badge compares projected xG to the player's season xG/game.
Iran — projected line vs season baseline (3-4-2-1)
| Player | Pos | Min | Proj G | Proj xG | Season xG/g | | Proj Sh | Season Sh/g | Proj Rtg | Season Rtg | Rec |
|---|
| Mohammad Khalife | G | 90 | 0 | - | - | n/a | | - | 6.7 | - | 3 |
| Hossein Kanaani | D | 90 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.05 | ok | | 0.3 | 6.6 | 45.3 | 3 |
| Mohammad Amin Hazbavi | D | 90 | 0 | - | - | n/a | | - | 6.6 | - | 0 |
| Milad Mohammadi | D | 90 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.04 | 87% | | 0.3 | 6.6 | 66.0 | 3 |
| Mehdi Ghayedi | M | 90 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.01 | 2095% | 2 | 0.2 | 6.7 | 11.0 | 6 |
| Ali Gholizadeh | M | 90 | 0 | 0.08 | - | n/a | 2 | - | 6.7 | - | 0 |
| Mohammadjavad Hosseinnejad | M | 90 | 0 | 0.05 | - | n/a | 1 | - | 6.7 | - | 0 |
| Saeid Ezatolahi | M | 90 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.18 | 83% | 1 | 2.0 | 6.7 | 69.3 | 3 |
| Sardar Azmoun | F | 90 | 1 | 0.36 | - | n/a | 2 | - | 6.8 | - | 0 |
| Mehdi Taremi | F | 65 | 0 | 0.23 | 0.30 | ok | 2 | 2.0 | 6.5 | 56.9 | 7 |
| Amirhossein Hosseinzadeh | F | 90 | 0 | 0.20 | 0.02 | 994% | 2 | 0.3 | 6.7 | 43.3 | 3 |
| Team totals | 1 | 1.39 | | 14 | | 6.6 | |
New Zealand — projected line vs season baseline (3-5-2)
| Player | Pos | Min | Proj G | Proj xG | Season xG/g | | Proj Sh | Season Sh/g | Proj Rtg | Season Rtg | Rec |
|---|
| Max Crocombe | G | 90 | 0 | - | - | n/a | | 0.0 | 6.7 | 63.3 | 3 |
| Finn Surman | D | 90 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.07 | 35% | | 0.2 | 6.6 | 42.6 | 8 |
| Tyler Bindon | D | 90 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.12 | 70% | | 0.4 | 6.6 | 25.8 | 5 |
| Francis De Vries | D | 77 | 0 | 0.01 | - | n/a | 1 | 0.0 | 7.0 | 54.7 | 6 |
| Marko Stamenić | M | 90 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.04 | ok | 2 | 1.0 | 6.7 | 68.3 | 3 |
| Joe Bell | M | 90 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.01 | 475% | 2 | 0.3 | 6.7 | 66.0 | 3 |
| Liberato Cacace | M | 90 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.01 | 529% | 1 | 0.2 | 6.7 | 48.8 | 4 |
| Callum McCowatt | M | 90 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.11 | 42% | 1 | 1.3 | 6.7 | 63.3 | 3 |
| Elijah Just | M | 84 | 0 | 0.19 | 0.16 | ok | 3 | 2.4 | 6.9 | 72.7 | 7 |
| Chris Wood | F | 69 | 0 | 0.15 | 0.20 | ok | 2 | 0.9 | 6.4 | 54.3 | 12 |
| Jesse Randall | F | 81 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 6514% | 2 | 1.2 | 7.5 | 47.5 | 13 |
| Team totals | 0 | 0.83 | | 15 | | 6.8 | |
Antagonist / tactical summary
Midfield is evenly contested — Mehdi Ghayedi vs Marko Stamenić will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 1.06, Away: 0.40. Home danger zone: Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle.
Midfield — possession 49.7% / 50.3%, dominance ratio 0.49, key duel: Mehdi Ghayedi vs Marko Stamenić
Mohammadjavad Hosseinnejad xG 0.05Mehdi Ghayedi xG 0.11Ali Gholizadeh xG 0.08Liberato Cacace xG 0.03Marko Stamenić xG 0.05Joe Bell xG 0.04
Summary
Antagonist matchup analysis for Iran vs New Zealand. Most likely scoreline: 1-0. Lambdas derived from 7 home and 6 away individual player duels.
Tactical parity between 3-4-2-1 and 3-5-2. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Midfield is evenly contested — Mehdi Ghayedi vs Marko Stamenić will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 1.06, Away: 0.40. Home danger zone: Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle.
France vs Senegal
FIFA World Cup · 20260616 · 4-2-3-1 vs 4-3-3
Predicted 2-0Winner: DrawConfidence 0.85λ home/away 2.54 / 0.73Most-likely P 12.2%
Actual vs predicted: result not available yet (upcoming fixture).
Lambda decomposition (how the goal rates were built)
| Stage | France λ | Senegal λ |
|---|
| Pre-calibration | 2.541 | 0.734 |
| Final λ | 2.541 | 0.734 |
competition calibration scale 1.0competition observed total goals 0.0quality gap applied Truemismatch score pressure applied Falsecompetitive underdog floor applied Falsestage discount 1.0
Scoreline distribution & markets
| Top 5 scorelines | P |
|---|
| 2-0 | 12.2% |
| 3-0 | 10.3% |
| 1-0 | 9.6% |
| 2-1 | 9.0% |
| 3-1 | 7.6% |
| Home win | 76.5% |
| Draw | 14.9% |
| Away win | 8.6% |
| Over 2.5 | 63.5% |
| BTTS yes | 47.9% |
Projected players vs season baseline
Proj = projected for this match · Season = this season's per-game average from match data · deviation badge compares projected xG to the player's season xG/game.
France — projected line vs season baseline (4-2-3-1)
| Player | Pos | Min | Proj G | Proj xG | Season xG/g | | Proj Sh | Season Sh/g | Proj Rtg | Season Rtg | Rec |
|---|
| Kylian Mbappé | F | 75 | 1 | 0.61 | 0.55 | ok | 3 | 3.5 | 98.8 | 57.6 | 19 |
| Désiré Doué | F | 65 | 0 | 0.18 | 0.09 | 98% | 2 | 1.4 | 93.0 | 53.2 | 21 |
| Ousmane Dembélé | F | 75 | 0 | 0.18 | 0.24 | ok | 2 | 1.6 | 97.5 | 54.3 | 24 |
| Michael Olise | M | 86 | 1 | 0.41 | 0.29 | 42% | 2 | 2.8 | 94.4 | 73.5 | 17 |
| Adrien Rabiot | M | 93 | 0 | 0.23 | 0.12 | 100% | 1 | 1.5 | 90.2 | 57.3 | 12 |
| Aurélien Tchouaméni | M | 92 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.04 | 63% | 2 | 0.6 | 91.9 | 38.5 | 19 |
| Theo Hernández | D | 90 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 100% | | 0.7 | 91.0 | 47.3 | 13 |
| Dayot Upamecano | D | 92 | 0 | 0.50 | 0.11 | 341% | 1 | 0.6 | 92.6 | 59.0 | 18 |
| Jules Koundé | D | 95 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.01 | 525% | 0 | 0.2 | 94.3 | 47.4 | 17 |
| Mike Maignan | G | 94 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | | 0.0 | 94.2 | 63.8 | 12 |
| William Saliba | D | 95 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.01 | 926% | 0 | 0.2 | 95.0 | 51.4 | 19 |
| Team totals | 2 | 2.54 | | 14 | | 93.9 | |
Senegal — projected line vs season baseline (4-3-3)
| Player | Pos | Min | Proj G | Proj xG | Season xG/g | | Proj Sh | Season Sh/g | Proj Rtg | Season Rtg | Rec |
|---|
| Sadio Mané | M | 88 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.23 | 59% | 1 | 1.0 | 89.5 | 51.4 | 8 |
| Nicolas Jackson | F | 40 | 0 | 0.12 | 0.17 | 33% | 2 | 1.4 | 87.2 | 41.2 | 15 |
| Ismaïla Sarr | F | 69 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.30 | 68% | 2 | 1.6 | 86.0 | 37.9 | 13 |
| Pape Gueye | M | 75 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.04 | 83% | 1 | 0.9 | 85.5 | 47.7 | 11 |
| Habib Diarra | M | 23 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.08 | 51% | 2 | 0.5 | 84.3 | 34.0 | 8 |
| Lamine Camara | M | 95 | 0 | 0.18 | 0.08 | 123% | 2 | 1.2 | 85.4 | 61.0 | 6 |
| El Hadji Malick Diouf | D | 95 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 100% | 0 | 0.1 | 82.7 | 47.6 | 7 |
| Moussa Niakhaté | D | 78 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 100% | 0 | 0.1 | 83.9 | 59.3 | 9 |
| Kalidou Koulibaly | D | 90 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | | 0.0 | 88.6 | 38.3 | 3 |
| Krépin Diatta | M | 90 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.01 | 317% | 1 | 0.1 | 80.7 | 25.9 | 8 |
| Edouard Mendy | G | 89 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | | 0.0 | 87.0 | 57.2 | 6 |
| Team totals | 0 | 0.73 | | 12 | | 85.5 | |
Antagonist / tactical summary
Midfield is evenly contested — Michael Olise vs Lamine Camara will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 1.39, Away: 0.59. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle.
Midfield — possession 52.2% / 47.8%, dominance ratio 0.53, key duel: Michael Olise vs Lamine Camara
Michael Olise xG 0.46Désiré Doué xG 0.14Ousmane Dembélé xG 0.14Nicolas Jackson xG 0.17Sadio Mané xG 0.10Ismaïla Sarr xG 0.14
Summary
Antagonist matchup analysis for France vs Senegal. Most likely scoreline: 2-0. Lambdas derived from 5 home and 5 away individual player duels.
Tactical parity between 4-2-3-1 and 4-3-3. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Midfield is evenly contested — Michael Olise vs Lamine Camara will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 1.39, Away: 0.59. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle.
Generated 2026-09-04 22:27:55 UTC · Soccer prediction reporting