Soccer predictions: actual data vs predicted data
Slate 20260617 · 6 match(es)
How to read this report. Each match shows the model's headline prediction, the stage-by-stage lambda (goal-rate) build, both teams' standing/form inputs, and every starter's projected line next to their real season baseline. A moderate / large deviation badge flags a projection that strays far from the player's season form — a quick way to spot when the inputs look right but a projection does not. When the real result is known an actual-vs-predicted banner appears.
All matches overview
| Match | Score | Winner | H / D / A | O2.5 | BTTS | Conf | λ H/A | Actual | Result |
|---|
| Uzbekistan vs Colombia FIFA World Cup | 1-1 | Draw | 21.9% / 23.1% / 55.0% | 54.4% | 54.3% | 0.77 | 1.05 / 1.80 | - | pending |
| England vs Croatia FIFA World Cup | 1-1 | Draw | 49.5% / 25.3% / 25.2% | 48.8% | 51.6% | 0.75 | 1.57 / 1.05 | - | pending |
| Portugal vs DR Congo FIFA World Cup | 2-0 | Draw | 69.9% / 18.6% / 11.5% | 54.9% | 46.0% | 0.81 | 2.14 / 0.73 | - | pending |
| Argentina vs Algeria FIFA World Cup | 2-0 | Draw | 69.7% / 18.7% / 11.5% | 55.0% | 46.2% | 0.81 | 2.15 / 0.74 | - | pending |
| Austria vs Jordan FIFA World Cup | 1-1 | Draw | 55.9% / 22.8% / 21.3% | 55.2% | 54.7% | 0.77 | 1.84 / 1.05 | - | pending |
| Ghana vs Panama FIFA World Cup | 1-1 | Draw | 54.4% / 23.4% / 22.2% | 53.7% | 54.0% | 0.77 | 1.78 / 1.05 | - | pending |
Match detail
Uzbekistan vs Colombia
FIFA World Cup · 20260617 · 3-4-2-1 vs 4-2-3-1
Predicted 1-1Winner: DrawConfidence 0.77λ home/away 1.05 / 1.80Most-likely P 10.9%
Actual vs predicted: result not available yet (upcoming fixture).
Lambda decomposition (how the goal rates were built)
| Stage | Uzbekistan λ | Colombia λ |
|---|
| Pre-competitive-floor | 0.782 | 1.805 |
| Pre-calibration | 0.782 | 1.805 |
| Final λ | 1.050 | 1.805 |
competition calibration scale 1.0competition observed total goals 0.0quality gap applied Truemismatch score pressure applied Falsecompetitive underdog floor applied Truestage discount 1.0
Scoreline distribution & markets
| Top 5 scorelines | P |
|---|
| 1-1 | 10.9% |
| 0-1 | 10.4% |
| 1-2 | 9.8% |
| 0-2 | 9.4% |
| 1-0 | 6.0% |
| Home win | 21.9% |
| Draw | 23.1% |
| Away win | 55.0% |
| Over 2.5 | 54.4% |
| BTTS yes | 54.3% |
Pregame fair line — favorite Colombia (55.0%), fair total 2.85, fair spread -0.76
Projected players vs season baseline
Proj = projected for this match · Season = this season's per-game average from match data · deviation badge compares projected xG to the player's season xG/game.
Uzbekistan — projected line vs season baseline (3-4-2-1)
| Player | Pos | Min | Proj G | Proj xG | Season xG/g | | Proj Sh | Season Sh/g | Proj Rtg | Season Rtg | Rec |
|---|
| Abbosbek Fayzullaev | M | 50 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.14 | 100% | 1 | 0.4 | 90.0 | 38.9 | 9 |
| Farrukh Sayfiev | D | 88 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 65% | 0 | 0.2 | 88.7 | 34.9 | 12 |
| Odiljon Khamrobekov | M | 90 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.02 | 180% | 1 | 0.3 | 88.7 | 39.7 | 3 |
| Otabek Shukurov | M | 90 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.02 | 213% | 1 | 0.7 | 88.7 | 66.0 | 3 |
| Sherzod Nasrullaev | D | 83 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 100% | 0 | 0.1 | 88.7 | 31.5 | 15 |
| Abdulla Abdullaev | M | 90 | 0 | 0.05 | - | n/a | 2 | 0.0 | 87.7 | 21.3 | 6 |
| Rustam Ashurmatov | D | 90 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | | 0.0 | 87.6 | 62.0 | 3 |
| Abdukodir Khusanov | D | 95 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.01 | 307% | 1 | 0.3 | 84.8 | 45.5 | 10 |
| Abduvokhid Nematov | G | 88 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ok | | 0.0 | 93.9 | 37.4 | 11 |
| Oston Urunov | M | 90 | 0 | 0.05 | - | n/a | 1 | 0.0 | 92.7 | 31.8 | 4 |
| Eldor Shomurodov | F | 90 | 1 | 0.66 | 0.33 | 100% | 2 | 1.5 | 81.7 | 68.0 | 6 |
| Team totals | 1 | 1.05 | | 11 | | 88.5 | |
Colombia — projected line vs season baseline (4-2-3-1)
| Player | Pos | Min | Proj G | Proj xG | Season xG/g | | Proj Sh | Season Sh/g | Proj Rtg | Season Rtg | Rec |
|---|
| Daniel Muñoz | M | 79 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.06 | ok | 1 | 0.4 | 88.3 | 38.4 | 15 |
| Luis Javier Suárez | F | 87 | 1 | 0.38 | 0.32 | ok | 3 | 2.5 | 85.0 | 66.3 | 12 |
| Luis Díaz | M | 95 | 0 | 0.27 | 0.28 | ok | 3 | 2.2 | 92.8 | 52.4 | 18 |
| James Rodríguez | M | 71 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.03 | 187% | 2 | 0.5 | 96.2 | 26.0 | 11 |
| Jhon Arias | M | 70 | 0 | 0.14 | 0.17 | ok | 2 | 1.4 | 85.1 | 41.4 | 14 |
| Gustavo Puerta | M | 90 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.05 | ok | 1 | 1.6 | 74.9 | 40.0 | 9 |
| Jefferson Lerma | M | 72 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 100% | 1 | 0.5 | 83.8 | 48.9 | 11 |
| Johan Mojica | D | 83 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.03 | ok | 0 | 0.4 | 84.6 | 27.0 | 10 |
| Jhon Lucumí | D | 87 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 100% | 0 | 0.1 | 83.0 | 61.3 | 9 |
| Davinson Sánchez | D | 91 | 0 | 0.43 | 0.06 | 571% | 1 | 0.8 | 88.7 | 54.6 | 9 |
| Camilo Vargas | G | 88 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | | 0.0 | 88.8 | 64.4 | 9 |
| Team totals | 1 | 1.80 | | 17 | | 86.5 | |
Antagonist / tactical summary
Away midfield dictates play with ~52% possession expected (Abbosbek Fayzullaev vs Luis Díaz). Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.84, Away: 0.82. Home danger zone: Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle.
Midfield — possession 47.8% / 52.2%, dominance ratio 0.42, key duel: Abbosbek Fayzullaev vs Luis Díaz
Abdulla Abdullaev xG 0.03Eldor Shomurodov xG 0.63Odiljon Khamrobekov xG 0.05James Rodríguez xG 0.06Luis Díaz xG 0.30Jhon Arias xG 0.13
Summary
Antagonist matchup analysis for Uzbekistan vs Colombia. Most likely scoreline: 1-1. Lambdas derived from 5 home and 4 away individual player duels.
Tactical parity between 3-4-2-1 and 4-2-3-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Away midfield dictates play with ~52% possession expected (Abbosbek Fayzullaev vs Luis Díaz). Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.84, Away: 0.82. Home danger zone: Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle.
England vs Croatia
FIFA World Cup · 20260617 · 4-2-3-1 vs 3-4-2-1
Predicted 1-1Winner: DrawConfidence 0.75λ home/away 1.57 / 1.05Most-likely P 12.0%
Actual vs predicted: result not available yet (upcoming fixture).
Lambda decomposition (how the goal rates were built)
| Stage | England λ | Croatia λ |
|---|
| Pre-competitive-floor | 1.575 | 0.737 |
| Pre-calibration | 1.575 | 0.737 |
| Final λ | 1.575 | 1.050 |
competition calibration scale 1.0competition observed total goals 0.0quality gap applied Truemismatch score pressure applied Falsecompetitive underdog floor applied Truestage discount 1.0
Scoreline distribution & markets
| Top 5 scorelines | P |
|---|
| 1-1 | 12.0% |
| 1-0 | 11.3% |
| 2-1 | 9.4% |
| 2-0 | 9.0% |
| 0-1 | 7.5% |
| Home win | 49.5% |
| Draw | 25.3% |
| Away win | 25.2% |
| Over 2.5 | 48.8% |
| BTTS yes | 51.6% |
Pregame fair line — favorite England (49.5%), fair total 2.62, fair spread 0.53
Projected players vs season baseline
Proj = projected for this match · Season = this season's per-game average from match data · deviation badge compares projected xG to the player's season xG/game.
England — projected line vs season baseline (4-2-3-1)
| Player | Pos | Min | Proj G | Proj xG | Season xG/g | | Proj Sh | Season Sh/g | Proj Rtg | Season Rtg | Rec |
|---|
| Jordan Pickford | G | 92 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | | 0.0 | 90.6 | 42.9 | 14 |
| Reece James | D | 42 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 533% | 1 | 0.1 | 88.6 | 28.9 | 14 |
| Harry Kane | F | 91 | 1 | 0.45 | 0.46 | ok | 2 | 2.6 | 97.2 | 63.5 | 17 |
| Anthony Gordon | F | 58 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 92% | 2 | 0.3 | 90.4 | 22.7 | 21 |
| Jude Bellingham | M | 68 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.18 | 100% | 1 | 1.1 | 98.0 | 57.3 | 16 |
| Bukayo Saka | F | 63 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.16 | 68% | 2 | 1.2 | 95.7 | 45.5 | 19 |
| Declan Rice | M | 95 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 100% | 1 | 0.7 | 95.2 | 52.2 | 20 |
| Elliot Anderson | M | 95 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.04 | 36% | 2 | 1.0 | 88.4 | 57.3 | 18 |
| Nico O'Reilly | D | 95 | 0 | 0.50 | 0.12 | 320% | 1 | 0.7 | 80.0 | 37.8 | 15 |
| Ezri Konsa | D | 95 | 0 | 0.34 | 0.07 | 364% | 1 | 0.3 | 89.7 | 52.6 | 20 |
| John Stones | D | 43 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 100% | 0 | 0.1 | 88.6 | 23.5 | 14 |
| Team totals | 1 | 1.57 | | 15 | | 91.1 | |
Croatia — projected line vs season baseline (3-4-2-1)
| Player | Pos | Min | Proj G | Proj xG | Season xG/g | | Proj Sh | Season Sh/g | Proj Rtg | Season Rtg | Rec |
|---|
| Petar Musa | F | 32 | 0 | 0.17 | 0.15 | ok | 2 | 0.7 | 82.5 | 29.6 | 7 |
| Martin Baturina | M | 74 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.06 | ok | 2 | 1.1 | 85.5 | 62.6 | 8 |
| Petar Sučić | M | 89 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 100% | 2 | 0.8 | 81.7 | 63.8 | 8 |
| Ivan Perišić | M | 75 | 1 | 0.26 | 0.05 | 409% | 1 | 0.8 | 88.5 | 55.6 | 8 |
| Mateo Kovačić | M | 33 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 100% | 1 | 0.5 | 89.9 | 39.9 | 12 |
| Luka Modrić | M | 20 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 100% | 2 | 0.3 | 89.8 | 59.3 | 6 |
| Josip Stanišić | D | 73 | 0 | 0.29 | 0.08 | 239% | 1 | 0.4 | 85.2 | 62.4 | 14 |
| Joško Gvardiol | D | 42 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.03 | 138% | 1 | 0.2 | 91.3 | 39.3 | 10 |
| Josip Šutalo | D | 92 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 100% | 0 | 0.2 | 84.9 | 68.2 | 5 |
| Dominik Livaković | G | 89 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | | 0.0 | 86.8 | 69.2 | 9 |
| Luka Vušković | D | 71 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.01 | 470% | 1 | 0.3 | 79.9 | 28.5 | 10 |
| Team totals | 1 | 1.05 | | 14 | | 86.0 | |
Antagonist / tactical summary
Home midfield dominates with ~54% possession expected (Jude Bellingham vs Petar Sučić). Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.45, Away: 0.73. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle.
Midfield — possession 54.1% / 45.9%, dominance ratio 0.59, key duel: Jude Bellingham vs Petar Sučić
Elliot Anderson xG 0.04Harry Kane xG 0.36Anthony Gordon xG 0.00Luka Modrić xG 0.20Petar Musa xG 0.15Ivan Perišić xG 0.18
Summary
Antagonist matchup analysis for England vs Croatia. Most likely scoreline: 1-1. Lambdas derived from 4 home and 5 away individual player duels.
Tactical parity between 4-2-3-1 and 3-4-2-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Home midfield dominates with ~54% possession expected (Jude Bellingham vs Petar Sučić). Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.45, Away: 0.73. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle.
Portugal vs DR Congo
FIFA World Cup · 20260617 · 4-3-3 vs 5-3-2
Predicted 2-0Winner: DrawConfidence 0.81λ home/away 2.14 / 0.73Most-likely P 12.9%
Actual vs predicted: result not available yet (upcoming fixture).
Lambda decomposition (how the goal rates were built)
| Stage | Portugal λ | DR Congo λ |
|---|
| Pre-mismatch | 1.966 | 0.753 |
| Pre-calibration | 1.966 | 0.752 |
| Final λ | 2.144 | 0.735 |
competition calibration scale 1.0competition observed total goals 0.0quality gap applied Truemismatch score pressure applied Truecompetitive underdog floor applied Falsestage discount 1.0
Scoreline distribution & markets
| Top 5 scorelines | P |
|---|
| 2-0 | 12.9% |
| 1-0 | 12.0% |
| 2-1 | 9.5% |
| 3-0 | 9.2% |
| 1-1 | 8.9% |
| Home win | 69.9% |
| Draw | 18.6% |
| Away win | 11.5% |
| Over 2.5 | 54.9% |
| BTTS yes | 46.0% |
Pregame fair line — favorite Portugal (69.9%), fair total 2.88, fair spread 1.41
Projected players vs season baseline
Proj = projected for this match · Season = this season's per-game average from match data · deviation badge compares projected xG to the player's season xG/game.
Portugal — projected line vs season baseline (4-3-3)
| Player | Pos | Min | Proj G | Proj xG | Season xG/g | | Proj Sh | Season Sh/g | Proj Rtg | Season Rtg | Rec |
|---|
| Pedro Neto | M | 95 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.01 | 356% | 1 | 0.3 | 87.2 | 46.8 | 13 |
| Cristiano Ronaldo | F | 87 | 2 | 0.54 | 0.54 | ok | 2 | 3.2 | 91.9 | 63.4 | 9 |
| Bernardo Silva | M | 65 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.04 | 98% | 2 | 0.5 | 91.2 | 39.9 | 16 |
| Vitinha | M | 91 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 100% | 2 | 0.7 | 96.8 | 62.5 | 15 |
| João Neves | M | 76 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.05 | 33% | 1 | 0.8 | 92.7 | 66.1 | 15 |
| Bruno Fernandes | M | 95 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.11 | ok | 2 | 1.4 | 94.7 | 51.2 | 12 |
| Nuno Mendes | D | 84 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.02 | 104% | 1 | 0.5 | 93.9 | 65.9 | 12 |
| Gonçalo Inácio | D | 95 | 0 | 0.78 | 0.04 | 1653% | 0 | 0.1 | 88.9 | 36.3 | 12 |
| Tomás Araújo | D | 95 | 0 | 0.23 | 0.04 | 545% | 1 | 0.3 | 85.4 | 30.8 | 9 |
| João Cancelo | D | 64 | 0 | 0.12 | 0.02 | 469% | 1 | 0.5 | 90.6 | 48.1 | 17 |
| Diogo Costa | G | 95 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | | 0.0 | 91.9 | 64.0 | 13 |
| Team totals | 2 | 2.14 | | 13 | | 91.4 | |
DR Congo — projected line vs season baseline (5-3-2)
| Player | Pos | Min | Proj G | Proj xG | Season xG/g | | Proj Sh | Season Sh/g | Proj Rtg | Season Rtg | Rec |
|---|
| Ngal'ayel Mukau | M | 61 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 100% | 1 | 0.3 | 80.6 | 65.6 | 9 |
| Samuel Moutoussamy | M | 75 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 100% | 1 | 0.6 | 89.4 | 67.0 | 8 |
| Noah Sadiki | M | 92 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 100% | 1 | 0.2 | 81.3 | 47.4 | 10 |
| Arthur Masuaku | D | 90 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | | 0.0 | 81.6 | 49.1 | 7 |
| Steve Kapuadi | D | 90 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 100% | | 0.2 | 77.6 | 31.8 | 4 |
| Chancel Mbemba | D | 88 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.01 | 435% | 0 | 0.2 | 88.9 | 45.0 | 9 |
| Axel Tuanzebe | D | 89 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | 0 | 0.0 | 79.6 | 66.1 | 7 |
| Aaron Wan-Bissaka | D | 90 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | | 0.0 | 86.8 | 59.1 | 7 |
| Lionel Mpasi Nzau | G | 90 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | | 0.0 | 86.7 | 39.0 | 7 |
| Yoane Wissa | F | 20 | 0 | 0.42 | 0.21 | 101% | 2 | 0.9 | 88.9 | 40.2 | 12 |
| Cédric Bakambu | F | 28 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 93% | 0 | 0.4 | 83.3 | 32.0 | 10 |
| Team totals | 0 | 0.73 | | 7 | | 84.1 | |
Antagonist / tactical summary
Home midfield dominates with ~53% possession expected (João Neves vs Noah Sadiki). Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.72, Away: 0.47. Home danger zone: LW vs RWB + CB. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle.
Midfield — possession 52.9% / 47.1%, dominance ratio 0.59, key duel: João Neves vs Noah Sadiki
Cristiano Ronaldo xG 0.40Bruno Fernandes xG 0.08Bernardo Silva xG 0.05Yoane Wissa xG 0.26Axel Tuanzebe xG 0.05Chancel Mbemba xG 0.02
Summary
Antagonist matchup analysis for Portugal vs DR Congo. Most likely scoreline: 2-0. Lambdas derived from 4 home and 5 away individual player duels.
Tactical parity between 4-3-3 and 5-3-2. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Home midfield dominates with ~53% possession expected (João Neves vs Noah Sadiki). Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.72, Away: 0.47. Home danger zone: LW vs RWB + CB. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle.
Argentina vs Algeria
FIFA World Cup · 20260617 · 3-4-2-1 vs 3-4-2-1
Predicted 2-0Winner: DrawConfidence 0.81λ home/away 2.15 / 0.74Most-likely P 12.9%
Actual vs predicted: result not available yet (upcoming fixture).
Lambda decomposition (how the goal rates were built)
| Stage | Argentina λ | Algeria λ |
|---|
| Pre-mismatch | 1.863 | 0.804 |
| Pre-calibration | 1.863 | 0.804 |
| Final λ | 2.145 | 0.739 |
competition calibration scale 1.0competition observed total goals 0.0quality gap applied Truemismatch score pressure applied Truestage discount 1.0
Scoreline distribution & markets
| Top 5 scorelines | P |
|---|
| 2-0 | 12.9% |
| 1-0 | 12.0% |
| 2-1 | 9.5% |
| 3-0 | 9.2% |
| 1-1 | 8.9% |
| Home win | 69.7% |
| Draw | 18.7% |
| Away win | 11.5% |
| Over 2.5 | 55.0% |
| BTTS yes | 46.2% |
Projected players vs season baseline
Proj = projected for this match · Season = this season's per-game average from match data · deviation badge compares projected xG to the player's season xG/game.
Argentina — projected line vs season baseline (3-4-2-1)
| Player | Pos | Min | Proj G | Proj xG | Season xG/g | | Proj Sh | Season Sh/g | Proj Rtg | Season Rtg | Rec |
|---|
| Emiliano Martínez | G | 92 | 0 | - | - | n/a | | 0.0 | 7.0 | 48.4 | 20 |
| Cristian Romero | D | 93 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.03 | 74% | 1 | 0.2 | 7.9 | 32.4 | 13 |
| Marcos Senesi | D | 94 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.03 | 261% | 0 | 0.1 | 7.7 | 26.9 | 11 |
| Nahuel Molina | D | 74 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.01 | 253% | 0 | 0.1 | 6.6 | 41.9 | 14 |
| Alexis Mac Allister | M | 89 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.13 | 42% | 1 | 1.2 | 7.3 | 42.6 | 17 |
| Enzo Fernández | M | 88 | 0 | 0.16 | 0.09 | 88% | 2 | 0.9 | 7.6 | 39.2 | 15 |
| Nico Paz | M | 82 | 0 | 0.13 | 0.01 | 1333% | 2 | 0.2 | 7.7 | 15.6 | 13 |
| Giuliano Simeone | M | 85 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.05 | ok | 1 | 0.4 | 7.2 | 31.2 | 23 |
| Julián Alvarez | F | 87 | 1 | 0.31 | 0.25 | ok | 2 | 1.4 | 8.1 | 44.4 | 18 |
| Lautaro Martínez | F | 72 | 1 | 0.41 | 0.37 | ok | 3 | 1.3 | 7.6 | 55.1 | 10 |
| Franco Mastantuono | F | 29 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 97% | 2 | 0.4 | 7.0 | 41.1 | 8 |
| Team totals | 2 | 2.15 | | 15 | | 7.4 | |
Algeria — projected line vs season baseline (3-4-2-1)
| Player | Pos | Min | Proj G | Proj xG | Season xG/g | | Proj Sh | Season Sh/g | Proj Rtg | Season Rtg | Rec |
|---|
| Luca Zidane | G | 90 | 0 | - | - | n/a | | 0.0 | 6.7 | 47.5 | 4 |
| Rayan Aït-Nouri | D | 61 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.02 | 290% | 1 | 0.2 | 7.5 | 44.2 | 12 |
| Jaouen Hadjam | D | 60 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.01 | 562% | 1 | 0.3 | 6.9 | 53.7 | 9 |
| Ramy Bensebaini | D | 84 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.09 | 188% | 1 | 0.8 | 7.2 | 73.4 | 5 |
| Anis Hadj Moussa | M | 92 | 0 | 0.29 | 0.21 | 37% | 1 | 1.0 | 7.3 | 41.1 | 9 |
| Farès Chaïbi | M | 70 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.08 | 34% | 1 | 1.6 | 6.9 | 57.9 | 8 |
| Hicham Boudaoui | M | 81 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 100% | 1 | 0.2 | 7.0 | 59.0 | 8 |
| Ilan Kebbal | M | 44 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 100% | 1 | 0.7 | 6.8 | 68.7 | 3 |
| Ibrahim Maza | F | 86 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.24 | 54% | 2 | 2.2 | 7.5 | 50.6 | 12 |
| Amine Gouiri | F | 75 | 0 | 0.21 | 0.20 | ok | 2 | 1.2 | 7.1 | 67.0 | 6 |
| Mohamed Amoura | F | 74 | 0 | 0.18 | - | n/a | 2 | 0.0 | 6.9 | 32.7 | 6 |
| Team totals | 0 | 0.74 | | 15 | | 7.1 | |
Antagonist / tactical summary
Home midfield dominates with ~53% possession expected (Alexis Mac Allister vs Anis Hadj Moussa). Total antagonist xG — Home: 1.23, Away: 0.92. Home danger zone: Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat. Away danger zone: Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest.
Midfield — possession 53.4% / 46.6%, dominance ratio 0.60, key duel: Alexis Mac Allister vs Anis Hadj Moussa
Alexis Mac Allister xG 0.09Enzo Fernández xG 0.19Nico Paz xG 0.15Hicham Boudaoui xG 0.07Anis Hadj Moussa xG 0.24Farès Chaïbi xG 0.05
Summary
Antagonist matchup analysis for Argentina vs Algeria. Most likely scoreline: 2-0. Lambdas derived from 7 home and 7 away individual player duels.
Tactical parity between 3-4-2-1 and 3-4-2-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Home midfield dominates with ~53% possession expected (Alexis Mac Allister vs Anis Hadj Moussa). Total antagonist xG — Home: 1.23, Away: 0.92. Home danger zone: Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat. Away danger zone: Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest.
Austria vs Jordan
FIFA World Cup · 20260617 · 4-2-3-1 vs 3-4-3
Predicted 1-1Winner: DrawConfidence 0.77λ home/away 1.84 / 1.05Most-likely P 10.8%
Actual vs predicted: result not available yet (upcoming fixture).
Lambda decomposition (how the goal rates were built)
| Stage | Austria λ | Jordan λ |
|---|
| Pre-competitive-floor | 1.843 | 0.708 |
| Pre-calibration | 1.843 | 0.708 |
| Final λ | 1.843 | 1.050 |
competition calibration scale 1.0competition observed total goals 0.0quality gap applied Truemismatch score pressure applied Falsecompetitive underdog floor applied Truestage discount 1.0
Scoreline distribution & markets
| Top 5 scorelines | P |
|---|
| 1-1 | 10.8% |
| 1-0 | 10.2% |
| 2-1 | 9.9% |
| 2-0 | 9.4% |
| 3-1 | 6.1% |
| Home win | 55.9% |
| Draw | 22.8% |
| Away win | 21.3% |
| Over 2.5 | 55.2% |
| BTTS yes | 54.7% |
Projected players vs season baseline
Proj = projected for this match · Season = this season's per-game average from match data · deviation badge compares projected xG to the player's season xG/game.
Austria — projected line vs season baseline (4-2-3-1)
| Player | Pos | Min | Proj G | Proj xG | Season xG/g | | Proj Sh | Season Sh/g | Proj Rtg | Season Rtg | Rec |
|---|
| Alexander Schlager | G | 88 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | | 0.0 | 79.7 | 62.7 | 10 |
| Stefan Posch | D | 61 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.05 | 127% | 1 | 0.8 | 85.6 | 54.1 | 8 |
| Philipp Lienhart | D | 66 | 0 | 0.39 | 0.06 | 606% | 1 | 0.4 | 85.6 | 50.2 | 16 |
| Marko Arnautović | F | 71 | 0 | 0.30 | 0.27 | ok | 2 | 0.9 | 93.7 | 49.9 | 7 |
| Michael Gregoritsch | F | 62 | 1 | 0.30 | 0.25 | ok | 2 | 1.0 | 81.9 | 50.4 | 8 |
| Marcel Sabitzer | M | 86 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 100% | 0 | 0.8 | 87.0 | 54.7 | 9 |
| Romano Schmid | M | 62 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 100% | 2 | 0.8 | 84.7 | 61.0 | 8 |
| Nicolas Seiwald | M | 65 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 100% | 1 | 0.5 | 84.1 | 60.1 | 8 |
| Xaver Schlager | M | 83 | 0 | 0.15 | 0.01 | 1034% | 2 | 0.3 | 87.2 | 36.6 | 11 |
| Konrad Laimer | D | 76 | 0 | 0.14 | 0.04 | 220% | 0 | 0.2 | 89.0 | 48.9 | 16 |
| David Alaba | D | 57 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.01 | 1004% | 0 | 0.2 | 88.9 | 40.9 | 12 |
| Team totals | 1 | 1.84 | | 13 | | 86.1 | |
Jordan — projected line vs season baseline (3-4-3)
| Player | Pos | Min | Proj G | Proj xG | Season xG/g | | Proj Sh | Season Sh/g | Proj Rtg | Season Rtg | Rec |
|---|
| Odeh Fakhoury | F | 17 | 1 | 0.28 | 0.02 | 1540% | 2 | 0.5 | 86.4 | 65.8 | 4 |
| Ali Olwan | F | 90 | 0 | 0.15 | 0.09 | 64% | 2 | 2.0 | 89.7 | 69.7 | 3 |
| Mousa Tamari | F | 91 | 0 | 0.24 | 0.23 | ok | 2 | 2.7 | 90.6 | 69.2 | 6 |
| Mohannad Abu Taha | M | 90 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.01 | 672% | 2 | 0.2 | 87.7 | 50.8 | 4 |
| Nizar Al-Rashdan | M | 86 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 100% | 2 | 0.9 | 89.8 | 69.3 | 7 |
| Noor Al-Deen Al Rawabdeh | M | 90 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.01 | 626% | 1 | 0.3 | 86.7 | 67.3 | 3 |
| Ehsan Haddad | M | 90 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.01 | 1247% | 1 | 0.3 | 88.7 | 66.0 | 3 |
| Saleem Obaid | D | 90 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | | 0.0 | 86.6 | 20.3 | 3 |
| Abdallah Nasib | D | 90 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | | 0.0 | 86.6 | 63.7 | 3 |
| Yazan Al-Arab | D | 69 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | 2 | 0.4 | 81.5 | 38.0 | 14 |
| Yazeed Abu Laila | G | 90 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | | 0.0 | 87.7 | 64.3 | 3 |
| Team totals | 1 | 1.05 | | 14 | | 87.4 | |
Antagonist / tactical summary
Home midfield dominates with ~53% possession expected (Nicolas Seiwald vs Nizar Al-Rashdan). Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.72, Away: 0.67. Home danger zone: RW vs CB. Away danger zone: Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat.
Midfield — possession 52.8% / 47.2%, dominance ratio 0.58, key duel: Nicolas Seiwald vs Nizar Al-Rashdan
Xaver Schlager xG 0.11Romano Schmid xG 0.20Michael Gregoritsch xG 0.20Noor Al-Deen Al Rawabdeh xG 0.05Nizar Al-Rashdan xG 0.10Mohannad Abu Taha xG 0.05
Summary
Antagonist matchup analysis for Austria vs Jordan. Most likely scoreline: 1-1. Lambdas derived from 4 home and 7 away individual player duels.
Tactical parity between 4-2-3-1 and 3-4-3. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Home midfield dominates with ~53% possession expected (Nicolas Seiwald vs Nizar Al-Rashdan). Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.72, Away: 0.67. Home danger zone: RW vs CB. Away danger zone: Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat.
Ghana vs Panama
FIFA World Cup · 20260617 · 4-2-3-1 vs 3-4-2-1
Predicted 1-1Winner: DrawConfidence 0.77λ home/away 1.78 / 1.05Most-likely P 11.1%
Actual vs predicted: result not available yet (upcoming fixture).
Lambda decomposition (how the goal rates were built)
| Stage | Ghana λ | Panama λ |
|---|
| Pre-competitive-floor | 1.778 | 0.741 |
| Pre-calibration | 1.778 | 0.741 |
| Final λ | 1.778 | 1.050 |
competition calibration scale 1.0competition observed total goals 0.0quality gap applied Truemismatch score pressure applied Falsecompetitive underdog floor applied Truestage discount 1.0
Scoreline distribution & markets
| Top 5 scorelines | P |
|---|
| 1-1 | 11.1% |
| 1-0 | 10.5% |
| 2-1 | 9.8% |
| 2-0 | 9.3% |
| 0-1 | 6.2% |
| Home win | 54.4% |
| Draw | 23.4% |
| Away win | 22.2% |
| Over 2.5 | 53.7% |
| BTTS yes | 54.0% |
Pregame fair line — favorite Ghana (54.4%), fair total 2.83, fair spread 0.73
Projected players vs season baseline
Proj = projected for this match · Season = this season's per-game average from match data · deviation badge compares projected xG to the player's season xG/game.
Ghana — projected line vs season baseline (4-2-3-1)
| Player | Pos | Min | Proj G | Proj xG | Season xG/g | | Proj Sh | Season Sh/g | Proj Rtg | Season Rtg | Rec |
|---|
| Iñaki Williams | M | 88 | 1 | 0.76 | 0.11 | 568% | 2 | 0.8 | 90.0 | 25.4 | 13 |
| Antoine Semenyo | M | 76 | 0 | 0.33 | 0.06 | 407% | 2 | 1.0 | 87.8 | 48.0 | 14 |
| Jordan Ayew | F | 90 | 0 | 0.24 | - | n/a | 2 | 0.0 | 79.7 | 66.5 | 4 |
| Abdul Fatawu Issahaku | M | 90 | 0 | 0.13 | 0.00 | 2625% | 2 | 0.3 | 94.1 | 24.5 | 11 |
| Kwasi Sibo | M | 90 | 0 | 0.12 | - | n/a | 1 | 0.0 | 75.7 | 43.5 | 6 |
| Elisha Owusu | M | 89 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 100% | 1 | 0.3 | 79.6 | 56.7 | 7 |
| Gideon Mensah | D | 85 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | 0 | 0.0 | 80.9 | 70.4 | 7 |
| Jerome Opoku | D | 74 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | 0 | 0.0 | 78.6 | 59.3 | 7 |
| Jonas Adjei Adjetey | D | 90 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 100% | | 0.3 | 93.7 | 34.8 | 6 |
| Alidu Seidu | D | 42 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | 0 | 0.0 | 80.4 | 27.6 | 7 |
| Lawrence Ati Zigi | G | 88 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | | 0.0 | 79.6 | 60.0 | 9 |
| Team totals | 1 | 1.78 | | 11 | | 83.7 | |
Panama — projected line vs season baseline (3-4-2-1)
| Player | Pos | Min | Proj G | Proj xG | Season xG/g | | Proj Sh | Season Sh/g | Proj Rtg | Season Rtg | Rec |
|---|
| José Fajardo | F | 57 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.01 | 335% | 2 | 0.4 | 74.7 | 32.7 | 14 |
| Ismael Díaz | M | 88 | 0 | 0.21 | 0.14 | 47% | 1 | 1.4 | 85.3 | 32.1 | 8 |
| Yoel Bárcenas | M | 83 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.20 | 65% | 2 | 1.2 | 86.7 | 69.2 | 5 |
| Éric Davis | D | 85 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 3949% | 0 | 0.1 | 85.3 | 8.4 | 8 |
| Aníbal Godoy | M | 90 | 0 | 0.06 | - | n/a | 1 | 0.0 | 76.7 | 22.7 | 6 |
| Carlos Harvey | M | 44 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 100% | 0 | 0.8 | 71.8 | 31.8 | 6 |
| Amir Murillo | D | 82 | 0 | 0.13 | 0.07 | 72% | 1 | 1.0 | 82.5 | 47.9 | 7 |
| José Córdoba | D | 89 | 0 | 0.04 | - | n/a | 0 | 0.0 | 74.7 | 66.0 | 3 |
| Fidel Escobar | D | 88 | 0 | 0.16 | 0.06 | 169% | 1 | 0.4 | 89.8 | 51.5 | 8 |
| Edgardo Fariña | D | 88 | 0 | 0.05 | - | n/a | 1 | 0.0 | 83.6 | - | 3 |
| Orlando Mosquera | G | 88 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | | 0.0 | 76.4 | 66.8 | 5 |
| Team totals | 1 | 1.05 | | 10 | | 80.7 | |
Antagonist / tactical summary
Home midfield dominates with ~53% possession expected (Antoine Semenyo vs Ismael Díaz). Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.63, Away: 0.34. Home danger zone: LW vs CB. Away danger zone: Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run.
Midfield — possession 52.7% / 47.3%, dominance ratio 0.59, key duel: Antoine Semenyo vs Ismael Díaz
Iñaki Williams xG 0.31Abdul Fatawu Issahaku xG 0.06Antoine Semenyo xG 0.17Éric Davis xG 0.03José Fajardo xG 0.05Ismael Díaz xG 0.16
Summary
Antagonist matchup analysis for Ghana vs Panama. Most likely scoreline: 1-1. Lambdas derived from 4 home and 5 away individual player duels.
Tactical parity between 4-2-3-1 and 3-4-2-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Home midfield dominates with ~53% possession expected (Antoine Semenyo vs Ismael Díaz). Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.63, Away: 0.34. Home danger zone: LW vs CB. Away danger zone: Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run.
Generated 2026-09-04 22:27:55 UTC · Soccer prediction reporting