Soccer predictions: actual data vs predicted data
Slate 20260618 · 5 match(es)
How to read this report. Each match shows the model's headline prediction, the stage-by-stage lambda (goal-rate) build, both teams' standing/form inputs, and every starter's projected line next to their real season baseline. A moderate / large deviation badge flags a projection that strays far from the player's season form — a quick way to spot when the inputs look right but a projection does not. When the real result is known an actual-vs-predicted banner appears.
All matches overview
| Match | Score | Winner | H / D / A | O2.5 | BTTS | Conf | λ H/A | Actual | Result |
|---|
| Switzerland vs BiH FIFA World Cup | 1-1 | Draw | 58.5% / 21.7% / 19.8% | 57.9% | 55.9% | 0.78 | 1.96 / 1.05 | - | pending |
| Uzbekistan vs Colombia FIFA World Cup | 0-1 | Draw | 15.6% / 22.8% / 61.6% | 47.1% | 44.8% | 0.77 | 0.77 / 1.79 | - | pending |
| Mexico vs South Korea FIFA World Cup | 1-2 | Draw | 24.8% / 21.1% / 54.1% | 66.9% | 65.2% | 0.79 | 1.36 / 2.08 | - | pending |
| Canada vs Qatar FIFA World Cup | 1-1 | Draw | 37.5% / 29.8% / 32.6% | 36.0% | 43.1% | 0.7 | 1.11 / 1.02 | - | pending |
| Czechia vs South Africa FIFA World Cup | 1-0 | Draw | 67.8% / 20.3% / 12.0% | 49.3% | 42.5% | 0.8 | 1.97 / 0.68 | - | pending |
Match detail
Switzerland vs BiH
FIFA World Cup · 20260618 · 4-3-3 vs 4-4-2
Predicted 1-1Winner: DrawConfidence 0.78λ home/away 1.96 / 1.05Most-likely P 10.2%
Actual vs predicted: result not available yet (upcoming fixture).
Lambda decomposition (how the goal rates were built)
| Stage | Switzerland λ | BiH λ |
|---|
| Pre-competitive-floor | 1.958 | 0.864 |
| Pre-calibration | 1.958 | 0.864 |
| Final λ | 1.958 | 1.050 |
competition calibration scale 1.0competition observed total goals 0.0quality gap applied Falsemismatch score pressure applied Falsecompetitive underdog floor applied Truestage discount 1.0
Scoreline distribution & markets
| Top 5 scorelines | P |
|---|
| 1-1 | 10.2% |
| 2-1 | 9.9% |
| 1-0 | 9.7% |
| 2-0 | 9.5% |
| 3-1 | 6.5% |
| Home win | 58.5% |
| Draw | 21.7% |
| Away win | 19.8% |
| Over 2.5 | 57.9% |
| BTTS yes | 55.9% |
Pregame fair line — favorite Switzerland (58.5%), fair total 3.01, fair spread 0.91
Projected players vs season baseline
Proj = projected for this match · Season = this season's per-game average from match data · deviation badge compares projected xG to the player's season xG/game.
Switzerland — projected line vs season baseline (4-3-3)
| Player | Pos | Min | Proj G | Proj xG | Season xG/g | | Proj Sh | Season Sh/g | Proj Rtg | Season Rtg | Rec |
|---|
| Gregor Kobel | G | 92 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | 0 | 0.0 | 93.3 | 36.6 | 16 |
| Rubén Vargas | M | 70 | 0 | 0.21 | 0.07 | 199% | 2 | 0.7 | 82.6 | 31.8 | 18 |
| Dan Ndoye | M | 70 | 0 | 0.21 | 0.03 | 664% | 5 | 0.6 | 85.6 | 18.2 | 23 |
| Remo Freuler | M | 86 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 100% | 2 | 0.3 | 87.6 | 37.9 | 18 |
| Michel Aebischer | M | 68 | 0 | 0.13 | 0.02 | 429% | 2 | 0.1 | 81.2 | 26.8 | 15 |
| Granit Xhaka | M | 89 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.05 | 50% | 2 | 0.3 | 92.2 | 29.7 | 18 |
| Ricardo Rodríguez | D | 87 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 100% | 0 | 0.1 | 81.3 | 33.8 | 18 |
| Manuel Akanji | D | 91 | 0 | 0.20 | 0.02 | 978% | 1 | 0.1 | 89.4 | 21.1 | 14 |
| Nico Elvedi | D | 90 | 0 | 0.21 | 0.03 | 625% | 2 | 0.2 | 84.1 | 26.9 | 16 |
| Denis Zakaria | M | 92 | 0 | 0.15 | 0.04 | 268% | 1 | 0.3 | 88.7 | 16.6 | 16 |
| Breel Embolo | F | 82 | 1 | 0.76 | 0.27 | 177% | 2 | 1.0 | 83.9 | 32.7 | 15 |
| Team totals | 1 | 1.96 | | 20 | | 86.3 | |
BiH — projected line vs season baseline (4-4-2)
| Player | Pos | Min | Proj G | Proj xG | Season xG/g | | Proj Sh | Season Sh/g | Proj Rtg | Season Rtg | Rec |
|---|
| Benjamin Tahirović | M | 89 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 158% | 1 | 0.2 | 73.5 | 52.2 | 5 |
| Ivan Bašić | M | 62 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 100% | 1 | 0.8 | 90.3 | 43.2 | 5 |
| Esmir Bajraktarević | F | 79 | 0 | 0.12 | 0.12 | ok | 2 | 0.9 | 73.2 | 41.0 | 8 |
| Sead Kolašinac | D | 76 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | 0 | 0.0 | 86.5 | 38.5 | 10 |
| Tarik Muharemović | D | 92 | 0 | 0.14 | 0.04 | 293% | 1 | 0.2 | 77.7 | 30.3 | 11 |
| Nikola Katić | D | 89 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 100% | 0 | 0.4 | 77.0 | 54.8 | 5 |
| Amar Dedić | D | 87 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 100% | 0 | 0.2 | 79.8 | 37.0 | 12 |
| Nikola Vasilj | G | 90 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | 0 | 0.0 | 83.3 | 56.8 | 8 |
| Amar Memić | M | 76 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.04 | ok | 1 | 1.1 | 78.3 | 55.3 | 7 |
| Ermedin Demirović | F | 87 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.19 | 85% | 2 | 1.4 | 86.8 | 58.8 | 10 |
| Jovo Lukić | F | 62 | 1 | 0.51 | 0.14 | 268% | 3 | 0.6 | 71.4 | 27.8 | 5 |
| Team totals | 1 | 1.05 | | 11 | | 79.8 | |
Antagonist / tactical summary
Home midfield dominates with ~52% possession expected (Dan Ndoye vs Benjamin Tahirović). Total antagonist xG — Home: 1.87, Away: 0.33. Home danger zone: Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle. Away danger zone: Right Mid vs Left Back — Wide Channel.
Midfield — possession 52.4% / 47.6%, dominance ratio 0.59, key duel: Dan Ndoye vs Benjamin Tahirović
Breel Embolo xG 1.00Michel Aebischer xG 0.18Remo Freuler xG 0.20Ermedin Demirović xG 0.04Ivan Bašić xG 0.12Esmir Bajraktarević xG 0.16
Summary
Antagonist matchup analysis for Switzerland vs BiH. Most likely scoreline: 1-1. Lambdas derived from 5 home and 4 away individual player duels.
Tactical parity between 4-3-3 and 4-4-2. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Home midfield dominates with ~52% possession expected (Dan Ndoye vs Benjamin Tahirović). Total antagonist xG — Home: 1.87, Away: 0.33. Home danger zone: Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle. Away danger zone: Right Mid vs Left Back — Wide Channel.
Uzbekistan vs Colombia
FIFA World Cup · 20260618 · 3-5-2 vs 3-5-2
Predicted 0-1Winner: DrawConfidence 0.77λ home/away 0.77 / 1.79Most-likely P 13.8%
Actual vs predicted: result not available yet (upcoming fixture).
Lambda decomposition (how the goal rates were built)
| Stage | Uzbekistan λ | Colombia λ |
|---|
| Pre-mismatch | 0.831 | 1.578 |
| Pre-calibration | 0.831 | 1.578 |
| Final λ | 0.770 | 1.787 |
competition calibration scale 1.0competition observed total goals 0.0quality gap applied Truemismatch score pressure applied Truestage discount 1.0
Scoreline distribution & markets
| Top 5 scorelines | P |
|---|
| 0-1 | 13.8% |
| 0-2 | 12.4% |
| 1-1 | 10.7% |
| 1-2 | 9.5% |
| 0-0 | 7.8% |
| Home win | 15.6% |
| Draw | 22.8% |
| Away win | 61.6% |
| Over 2.5 | 47.1% |
| BTTS yes | 44.8% |
Projected players vs season baseline
Proj = projected for this match · Season = this season's per-game average from match data · deviation badge compares projected xG to the player's season xG/game.
Uzbekistan — projected line vs season baseline (3-5-2)
| Player | Pos | Min | Proj G | Proj xG | Season xG/g | | Proj Sh | Season Sh/g | Proj Rtg | Season Rtg | Rec |
|---|
| Abduvokhid Nematov | G | 88 | 0 | - | 0.00 | n/a | | 0.0 | 6.9 | 37.4 | 11 |
| Abdukodir Khusanov | D | 87 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.01 | 659% | 1 | 0.3 | 7.6 | 45.5 | 10 |
| Husniddin Aliqulov | D | 90 | 0 | 0.04 | - | n/a | | - | 6.6 | - | 0 |
| Khozhiakbar Alizhonov | D | 87 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.02 | 158% | 1 | 0.3 | 7.0 | 32.8 | 13 |
| Abbosbek Fayzullaev | M | 62 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.14 | 44% | 1 | 0.4 | 6.8 | 38.9 | 9 |
| Azizjon Ganiev | M | 90 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 1623% | 1 | 0.2 | 6.7 | 33.5 | 4 |
| Oston Urunov | M | 90 | 0 | 0.10 | - | n/a | 1 | 0.0 | 6.7 | 31.8 | 4 |
| Otabek Shukurov | M | 90 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.02 | 247% | 1 | 0.7 | 6.7 | 66.0 | 3 |
| Akmal Mozgovoy | M | 84 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.04 | 72% | 1 | 0.4 | 6.6 | 38.7 | 12 |
| Eldor Shomurodov | F | 90 | 0 | 0.29 | 0.33 | ok | 2 | 1.5 | 7.6 | 68.0 | 6 |
| Igor Sergeev | F | 90 | 0 | 0.13 | - | n/a | 2 | 0.0 | 6.7 | 64.7 | 3 |
| Team totals | 0 | 0.77 | | 12 | | 6.9 | |
Colombia — projected line vs season baseline (3-5-2)
| Player | Pos | Min | Proj G | Proj xG | Season xG/g | | Proj Sh | Season Sh/g | Proj Rtg | Season Rtg | Rec |
|---|
| Álvaro Montero | G | 88 | 0 | - | - | n/a | | 0.0 | 6.9 | 18.6 | 8 |
| Jhon Lucumí | D | 88 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.01 | 827% | 0 | 0.1 | 7.5 | 61.3 | 9 |
| Davinson Sánchez | D | 92 | 0 | 0.17 | 0.06 | 167% | 1 | 0.8 | 6.9 | 54.6 | 9 |
| Yerson Mosquera | D | 84 | 0 | 0.13 | 0.26 | 47% | 1 | 1.7 | 6.6 | 64.0 | 3 |
| Luis Díaz | M | 90 | 0 | 0.14 | 0.28 | 51% | 2 | 2.2 | 7.7 | 52.4 | 18 |
| Daniel Muñoz | M | 83 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.06 | ok | 1 | 0.4 | 7.4 | 38.4 | 15 |
| Richard Ríos | M | 84 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.36 | 70% | 2 | 2.1 | 7.4 | 70.3 | 7 |
| Jhon Arias | M | 81 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.17 | 64% | 1 | 1.4 | 7.2 | 41.4 | 14 |
| Jorge Carrascal | M | 75 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.04 | 44% | 1 | 0.2 | 6.9 | 13.4 | 13 |
| Luis Javier Suárez | F | 85 | 1 | 0.32 | 0.32 | ok | 2 | 2.5 | 7.3 | 66.3 | 12 |
| Jhon Córdoba | F | 76 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.07 | 46% | 2 | 0.5 | 7.2 | 48.2 | 4 |
| Team totals | 1 | 1.79 | | 16 | | 7.2 | |
Antagonist / tactical summary
Away midfield dictates play with ~53% possession expected (Abbosbek Fayzullaev vs Luis Díaz). Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.68, Away: 0.87. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle.
Midfield — possession 46.8% / 53.2%, dominance ratio 0.40, key duel: Abbosbek Fayzullaev vs Luis Díaz
Oston Urunov xG 0.09Abbosbek Fayzullaev xG 0.06Azizjon Ganiev xG 0.04Jhon Arias xG 0.06Luis Díaz xG 0.18Richard Ríos xG 0.13
Summary
Antagonist matchup analysis for Uzbekistan vs Colombia. Most likely scoreline: 0-1. Lambdas derived from 6 home and 6 away individual player duels.
Tactical parity between 3-5-2 and 3-5-2. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Away midfield dictates play with ~53% possession expected (Abbosbek Fayzullaev vs Luis Díaz). Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.68, Away: 0.87. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle.
Mexico vs South Korea
FIFA World Cup · 20260618 · 4-1-4-1 vs 3-4-2-1
Predicted 1-2Winner: DrawConfidence 0.79λ home/away 1.36 / 2.08Most-likely P 9.4%
Actual vs predicted: result not available yet (upcoming fixture).
Lambda decomposition (how the goal rates were built)
| Stage | Mexico λ | South Korea λ |
|---|
| Pre-competitive-floor | 1.362 | 2.085 |
| Pre-calibration | 1.362 | 2.085 |
| Final λ | 1.362 | 2.085 |
competition calibration scale 1.0competition observed total goals 0.0quality gap applied Falsemismatch score pressure applied Falsecompetitive underdog floor applied Falsestage discount 1.0
Scoreline distribution & markets
| Top 5 scorelines | P |
|---|
| 1-2 | 9.4% |
| 1-1 | 9.1% |
| 0-2 | 6.9% |
| 0-1 | 6.6% |
| 1-3 | 6.6% |
| Home win | 24.8% |
| Draw | 21.1% |
| Away win | 54.1% |
| Over 2.5 | 66.9% |
| BTTS yes | 65.2% |
Pregame fair line — favorite South Korea (54.1%), fair total 3.45, fair spread -0.72
Projected players vs season baseline
Proj = projected for this match · Season = this season's per-game average from match data · deviation badge compares projected xG to the player's season xG/game.
Mexico — projected line vs season baseline (4-1-4-1)
| Player | Pos | Min | Proj G | Proj xG | Season xG/g | | Proj Sh | Season Sh/g | Proj Rtg | Season Rtg | Rec |
|---|
| Raúl Rangel | G | 90 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | 0 | 0.0 | 90.2 | 51.4 | 7 |
| Raúl Jiménez | F | 65 | 1 | 0.60 | 0.42 | 44% | 2 | 3.0 | 84.4 | 59.3 | 7 |
| Julián Quiñones | F | 81 | 0 | 0.30 | 0.53 | 44% | 2 | 3.2 | 88.1 | 68.8 | 9 |
| Álvaro Fidalgo | M | 60 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 100% | 0 | 0.3 | 87.0 | 36.8 | 15 |
| Gilberto Mora | M | 33 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.17 | 73% | 2 | 1.6 | 89.6 | 57.6 | 7 |
| Roberto Alvarado | F | 76 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 91% | 2 | 0.9 | 84.8 | 63.0 | 8 |
| Erik Lira | D | 80 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 100% | 0 | 0.1 | 91.2 | 32.0 | 11 |
| Jesús Gallardo | D | 83 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.03 | 30% | 2 | 1.2 | 90.0 | 69.7 | 6 |
| Johan Vásquez | D | 90 | 0 | 0.13 | 0.04 | 225% | 0 | 0.2 | 82.0 | 45.0 | 8 |
| Edson Álvarez | M | 14 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 100% | 2 | 0.3 | 85.0 | 40.4 | 7 |
| Jorge Sánchez | D | 86 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 989% | 0 | 0.1 | 84.4 | 49.5 | 8 |
| Team totals | 1 | 1.36 | | 13 | | 87.0 | |
South Korea — projected line vs season baseline (3-4-2-1)
| Player | Pos | Min | Proj G | Proj xG | Season xG/g | | Proj Sh | Season Sh/g | Proj Rtg | Season Rtg | Rec |
|---|
| Hyeon-gyu Oh | F | 31 | 1 | 0.37 | 0.25 | 50% | 3 | 1.3 | 78.4 | 66.5 | 6 |
| Son Heung-min | F | 70 | 1 | 1.04 | 0.31 | 236% | 3 | 2.2 | 91.8 | 42.0 | 8 |
| Kang-in Lee | M | 70 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.02 | 34% | 2 | 0.4 | 86.8 | 34.9 | 18 |
| Lee Tae-seok | M | 73 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 100% | 2 | 0.2 | 76.1 | 54.4 | 9 |
| Seung Ho Paik | M | 84 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | 1 | 0.0 | 79.1 | 66.7 | 3 |
| Hwang In-beom | M | 84 | 0 | 0.32 | 0.13 | 140% | 1 | 1.3 | 85.8 | 74.7 | 3 |
| Young-woo Seol | D | 90 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 100% | 0 | 0.4 | 88.7 | 38.9 | 7 |
| Gi-Hyuk Lee | D | 89 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | 0 | 0.0 | 89.9 | 49.8 | 13 |
| Kim Min-jae | D | 84 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.05 | 392% | 0 | 0.4 | 89.1 | 45.8 | 11 |
| Han-Beom Lee | D | 81 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.03 | 37% | 1 | 0.5 | 75.8 | 67.5 | 4 |
| Kim Seung-gyu | G | 89 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | 0 | 0.0 | 89.3 | 50.8 | 4 |
| Team totals | 2 | 2.08 | | 13 | | 84.6 | |
Antagonist / tactical summary
Midfield is evenly contested — Edson Álvarez vs Kang-in Lee will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 1.07, Away: 2.25. Home danger zone: Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest. Away danger zone: Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat.
Midfield — possession 51.0% / 49.0%, dominance ratio 0.50, key duel: Edson Álvarez vs Kang-in Lee
Gilberto Mora xG 0.05Edson Álvarez xG 0.12Julián Quiñones xG 0.30Seung Ho Paik xG 0.07Kang-in Lee xG 0.01Lee Tae-seok xG 0.10
Summary
Antagonist matchup analysis for Mexico vs South Korea. Most likely scoreline: 1-2. Lambdas derived from 5 home and 7 away individual player duels.
Tactical parity between 4-1-4-1 and 3-4-2-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Midfield is evenly contested — Edson Álvarez vs Kang-in Lee will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 1.07, Away: 2.25. Home danger zone: Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest. Away danger zone: Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat.
Canada vs Qatar
FIFA World Cup · 20260618 · 4-4-2 vs 4-3-3
Predicted 1-1Winner: DrawConfidence 0.7λ home/away 1.11 / 1.02Most-likely P 13.6%
Actual vs predicted: result not available yet (upcoming fixture).
Lambda decomposition (how the goal rates were built)
| Stage | Canada λ | Qatar λ |
|---|
| Pre-competitive-floor | 1.115 | 0.817 |
| Pre-calibration | 1.115 | 0.817 |
| Final λ | 1.115 | 1.020 |
competition calibration scale 1.0competition observed total goals 0.0quality gap applied Truemismatch score pressure applied Falsecompetitive underdog floor applied Truestage discount 1.0
Scoreline distribution & markets
| Top 5 scorelines | P |
|---|
| 1-1 | 13.6% |
| 1-0 | 13.1% |
| 0-0 | 11.9% |
| 0-1 | 11.9% |
| 2-1 | 7.5% |
| Home win | 37.5% |
| Draw | 29.8% |
| Away win | 32.6% |
| Over 2.5 | 36.0% |
| BTTS yes | 43.1% |
Pregame fair line — favorite Canada (37.5%), fair total 2.13, fair spread 0.10
Projected players vs season baseline
Proj = projected for this match · Season = this season's per-game average from match data · deviation badge compares projected xG to the player's season xG/game.
Canada — projected line vs season baseline (4-4-2)
| Player | Pos | Min | Proj G | Proj xG | Season xG/g | | Proj Sh | Season Sh/g | Proj Rtg | Season Rtg | Rec |
|---|
| Maxime Crépeau | G | 89 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | 0 | 0.0 | 75.8 | 52.6 | 9 |
| Cyle Larin | F | 29 | 1 | 0.16 | 0.38 | 59% | 2 | 1.8 | 84.3 | 54.0 | 5 |
| Liam Millar | M | 58 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 100% | 2 | 0.1 | 78.6 | 19.8 | 10 |
| Stephen Eustaquio | M | 88 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.02 | ok | 2 | 0.6 | 83.9 | 57.4 | 9 |
| Ismael Koné | M | 84 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.08 | 37% | 2 | 0.6 | 78.7 | 42.8 | 8 |
| Tajon Buchanan | M | 59 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 100% | 0 | 0.6 | 80.2 | 43.2 | 12 |
| Richie Laryea | D | 86 | 0 | 0.31 | 0.04 | 780% | 1 | 0.2 | 79.8 | 45.6 | 8 |
| Derek Cornelius | D | 86 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.15 | 54% | 1 | 1.0 | 80.6 | 52.0 | 5 |
| Luc De Fougerolles | D | 84 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 100% | 0 | 0.4 | 64.7 | 67.4 | 7 |
| Alistair Johnston | D | 88 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.05 | 42% | 1 | 0.9 | 84.9 | 68.9 | 9 |
| Jonathan David | F | 56 | 0 | 0.36 | 0.38 | ok | 2 | 2.2 | 88.4 | 58.2 | 8 |
| Team totals | 1 | 1.11 | | 14 | | 80.0 | |
Qatar — projected line vs season baseline (4-3-3)
| Player | Pos | Min | Proj G | Proj xG | Season xG/g | | Proj Sh | Season Sh/g | Proj Rtg | Season Rtg | Rec |
|---|
| Issa Laye | D | 79 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.01 | 941% | 1 | 0.5 | 86.0 | 50.2 | 8 |
| Assim Madibo | M | 77 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | 1 | 0.2 | 87.3 | 51.7 | 6 |
| Jassem Gaber Abdulsallam | M | 64 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | 2 | 0.1 | 86.4 | 66.9 | 7 |
| Homam Al-Amin | D | 89 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 572% | 1 | 0.3 | 87.1 | 39.0 | 3 |
| Boualem Khoukhi | D | 89 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 100% | 0 | 0.6 | 85.4 | 66.1 | 8 |
| Pedro Miguel | D | 86 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 100% | 0 | 1.2 | 87.2 | 67.2 | 8 |
| Ayoub Al Oui | D | 66 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | 0 | 0.2 | 88.0 | 48.5 | 6 |
| Mahmud Abunada | G | 89 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | 0 | 0.0 | 86.9 | 68.9 | 7 |
| Edmilson Junior | M | 88 | 1 | 0.50 | 0.06 | 789% | 1 | 0.8 | 88.3 | 42.1 | 10 |
| Yusuf Abdurisag | F | 65 | 0 | 0.34 | - | n/a | 2 | 0.9 | 86.9 | 60.6 | 7 |
| Akram Afif | M | 89 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 98% | 1 | 1.5 | 94.2 | 55.0 | 11 |
| Team totals | 1 | 1.02 | | 9 | | 87.6 | |
Antagonist / tactical summary
Midfield is evenly contested — Ismael Koné vs Akram Afif will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.32, Away: 0.82. Home danger zone: Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel. Away danger zone: Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest.
Midfield — possession 51.4% / 48.6%, dominance ratio 0.55, key duel: Ismael Koné vs Akram Afif
Cyle Larin xG 0.13Liam Millar xG 0.14Stephen Eustaquio xG 0.01Yusuf Abdurisag xG 0.18Ayoub Al Oui xG 0.20Jassem Gaber Abdulsallam xG 0.19
Summary
Antagonist matchup analysis for Canada vs Qatar. Most likely scoreline: 1-1. Lambdas derived from 4 home and 5 away individual player duels.
Tactical parity between 4-4-2 and 4-3-3. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Midfield is evenly contested — Ismael Koné vs Akram Afif will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.32, Away: 0.82. Home danger zone: Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel. Away danger zone: Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest.
Czechia vs South Africa
FIFA World Cup · 20260618 · 3-4-2-1 vs 4-2-3-1
Predicted 1-0Winner: DrawConfidence 0.8λ home/away 1.97 / 0.68Most-likely P 13.9%
Actual vs predicted: result not available yet (upcoming fixture).
Lambda decomposition (how the goal rates were built)
| Stage | Czechia λ | South Africa λ |
|---|
| Pre-calibration | 1.966 | 0.681 |
| Final λ | 1.966 | 0.681 |
competition calibration scale 1.0competition observed total goals 0.0quality gap applied Truemismatch score pressure applied Falsecompetitive underdog floor applied Falsestage discount 1.0
Scoreline distribution & markets
| Top 5 scorelines | P |
|---|
| 1-0 | 13.9% |
| 2-0 | 13.7% |
| 1-1 | 9.5% |
| 2-1 | 9.3% |
| 3-0 | 9.0% |
| Home win | 67.8% |
| Draw | 20.3% |
| Away win | 12.0% |
| Over 2.5 | 49.3% |
| BTTS yes | 42.5% |
Pregame fair line — favorite Czechia (67.8%), fair total 2.65, fair spread 1.28
Projected players vs season baseline
Proj = projected for this match · Season = this season's per-game average from match data · deviation badge compares projected xG to the player's season xG/game.
Czechia — projected line vs season baseline (3-4-2-1)
| Player | Pos | Min | Proj G | Proj xG | Season xG/g | | Proj Sh | Season Sh/g | Proj Rtg | Season Rtg | Rec |
|---|
| Patrik Schick | F | 67 | 1 | 0.20 | 0.52 | 62% | 2 | 1.9 | 91.5 | 59.6 | 8 |
| Adam Hložek | F | 22 | 0 | 0.16 | 0.10 | 66% | 2 | 0.8 | 84.0 | 44.0 | 6 |
| Jaroslav Zelený | D | 85 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 375% | 0 | 0.3 | 78.8 | 38.3 | 7 |
| Alexandr Sojka | M | 83 | 0 | 0.13 | 0.08 | 66% | 1 | 1.3 | 88.7 | 70.9 | 7 |
| Tomáš Souček | M | 87 | 0 | 0.24 | 0.18 | ok | 2 | 0.7 | 84.7 | 67.5 | 6 |
| Vladimír Coufal | D | 89 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.01 | 266% | 0 | 0.3 | 79.5 | 45.8 | 9 |
| Ladislav Krejčí | D | 89 | 0 | 0.22 | 0.09 | 149% | 1 | 1.2 | 85.1 | 57.2 | 6 |
| Robin Hranáč | D | 83 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | 0 | 0.0 | 77.4 | 51.4 | 5 |
| Tomáš Holeš | D | 87 | 0 | 0.76 | 0.14 | 455% | 1 | 0.4 | 82.9 | 40.0 | 5 |
| Lukáš Provod | F | 68 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.05 | ok | 1 | 0.8 | 85.1 | 47.2 | 6 |
| Matěj Kovář | G | 90 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | 0 | 0.0 | 82.1 | 72.6 | 5 |
| Team totals | 1 | 1.97 | | 10 | | 83.6 | |
South Africa — projected line vs season baseline (4-2-3-1)
| Player | Pos | Min | Proj G | Proj xG | Season xG/g | | Proj Sh | Season Sh/g | Proj Rtg | Season Rtg | Rec |
|---|
| Oswin Appollis | M | 35 | 0 | 0.17 | 0.16 | ok | 1 | 1.8 | 87.7 | 53.6 | 9 |
| Teboho Mokoena | M | 88 | 0 | 0.12 | 0.14 | ok | 1 | 1.4 | 89.5 | 61.3 | 7 |
| Thalente Mbatha | M | 44 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.04 | ok | 0 | 1.4 | 87.6 | 69.6 | 7 |
| Aubrey Modiba | D | 78 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.07 | 32% | 1 | 1.7 | 88.0 | 68.3 | 7 |
| Mbekezeli Mbokazi | D | 90 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 120% | 1 | 0.4 | 89.6 | 46.9 | 9 |
| Ime Okon | D | 89 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 100% | 0 | 0.2 | 73.3 | 68.0 | 4 |
| Khuliso Mudau | D | 89 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | 0 | 0.0 | 91.4 | 66.7 | 6 |
| Ronwen Williams | G | 89 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | 0 | 0.0 | 88.2 | 67.4 | 7 |
| Jayden Adams | M | 61 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | 0 | 0.0 | 88.6 | 51.2 | 5 |
| Relebohile Mofokeng | M | 89 | 0 | 0.20 | 0.08 | 160% | 2 | 1.8 | 88.8 | 45.7 | 9 |
| Lyle Foster | F | 51 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 182% | 2 | 0.2 | 78.0 | 24.4 | 5 |
| Team totals | 0 | 0.68 | | 8 | | 86.4 | |
Antagonist / tactical summary
Midfield is evenly contested — Tomáš Souček vs Teboho Mokoena will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 1.36, Away: 0.34. Home danger zone: Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run. Away danger zone: CAM vs CM.
Midfield — possession 50.2% / 49.8%, dominance ratio 0.48, key duel: Tomáš Souček vs Teboho Mokoena
Patrik Schick xG 0.17Adam Hložek xG 0.14Alexandr Sojka xG 0.11Teboho Mokoena xG 0.08Relebohile Mofokeng xG 0.14Oswin Appollis xG 0.11
Summary
Antagonist matchup analysis for Czechia vs South Africa. Most likely scoreline: 1-0. Lambdas derived from 5 home and 4 away individual player duels.
Tactical parity between 3-4-2-1 and 4-2-3-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Midfield is evenly contested — Tomáš Souček vs Teboho Mokoena will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 1.36, Away: 0.34. Home danger zone: Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run. Away danger zone: CAM vs CM.
Generated 2026-09-04 22:27:55 UTC · Soccer prediction reporting