Soccer predictions: actual data vs predicted data
Slate 20260619 · 5 match(es)
How to read this report. Each match shows the model's headline prediction, the stage-by-stage lambda (goal-rate) build, both teams' standing/form inputs, and every starter's projected line next to their real season baseline. A moderate / large deviation badge flags a projection that strays far from the player's season form — a quick way to spot when the inputs look right but a projection does not. When the real result is known an actual-vs-predicted banner appears.
All matches overview
| Match | Score | Winner | H / D / A | O2.5 | BTTS | Conf | λ H/A | Actual | Result |
|---|
| USA vs Australia FIFA World Cup | 2-0 | Draw | 72.7% / 17.7% / 9.7% | 54.0% | 42.5% | 0.82 | 2.19 / 0.65 | - | pending |
| Brazil vs Haiti FIFA World Cup | 2-0 | Draw | 80.9% / 12.5% / 6.6% | 68.2% | 47.4% | 0.88 | 2.81 / 0.70 | - | pending |
| Mexico vs South Korea FIFA World Cup | 1-0 | Draw | 38.4% / 30.4% / 31.1% | 34.1% | 41.4% | 0.7 | 1.10 / 0.96 | - | pending |
| Scotland vs Morocco FIFA World Cup | 0-2 | Draw | 9.8% / 16.8% / 73.5% | 58.3% | 45.9% | 0.83 | 0.71 / 2.32 | - | pending |
| Türkiye vs Paraguay FIFA World Cup | 2-0 | Draw | 77.6% / 14.3% / 8.1% | 64.5% | 47.7% | 0.86 | 2.60 / 0.72 | - | pending |
Match detail
USA vs Australia
FIFA World Cup · 20260619 · 4-2-3-1 vs 3-4-2-1
Predicted 2-0Winner: DrawConfidence 0.82λ home/away 2.19 / 0.65Most-likely P 14.0%
Actual vs predicted: result not available yet (upcoming fixture).
Lambda decomposition (how the goal rates were built)
| Stage | USA λ | Australia λ |
|---|
| Pre-calibration | 2.188 | 0.652 |
| Final λ | 2.188 | 0.652 |
competition calibration scale 1.0competition observed total goals 0.0quality gap applied Truemismatch score pressure applied Falsecompetitive underdog floor applied Falsestage discount 1.0
Scoreline distribution & markets
| Top 5 scorelines | P |
|---|
| 2-0 | 14.0% |
| 1-0 | 12.8% |
| 3-0 | 10.2% |
| 2-1 | 9.1% |
| 1-1 | 8.3% |
| Home win | 72.7% |
| Draw | 17.7% |
| Away win | 9.7% |
| Over 2.5 | 54.0% |
| BTTS yes | 42.5% |
Pregame fair line — favorite USA (72.7%), fair total 2.84, fair spread 1.54
Projected players vs season baseline
Proj = projected for this match · Season = this season's per-game average from match data · deviation badge compares projected xG to the player's season xG/game.
USA — projected line vs season baseline (4-2-3-1)
| Player | Pos | Min | Proj G | Proj xG | Season xG/g | | Proj Sh | Season Sh/g | Proj Rtg | Season Rtg | Rec |
|---|
| Folarin Balogun | F | 73 | 2 | 0.54 | 0.29 | 85% | 2 | 2.9 | 85.5 | 57.6 | 7 |
| Weston McKennie | M | 91 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 100% | 0 | 0.8 | 85.3 | 69.0 | 8 |
| Sergiño Dest | D | 74 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 100% | 0 | 0.3 | 86.0 | 43.5 | 11 |
| Malik Tillman | M | 66 | 0 | 0.82 | 0.12 | 615% | 2 | 1.0 | 89.2 | 69.2 | 10 |
| Tyler Adams | M | 85 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 100% | 0 | 0.1 | 86.1 | 43.9 | 11 |
| Antonee Robinson | D | 91 | 0 | 0.33 | 0.07 | 379% | 0 | 0.2 | 89.0 | 41.8 | 12 |
| Tim Ream | D | 89 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | 0 | 0.0 | 79.3 | 43.1 | 8 |
| Chris Richards | D | 89 | 0 | 0.18 | 0.06 | 204% | 1 | 0.5 | 83.9 | 42.7 | 11 |
| Alexander Freeman | D | 90 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 100% | 0 | 0.3 | 86.2 | 36.1 | 12 |
| Tim Weah | M | 40 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.01 | 609% | 2 | 0.4 | 83.7 | 17.6 | 11 |
| Matthew Freese | G | 89 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | 0 | 0.0 | 92.0 | 44.1 | 9 |
| Team totals | 2 | 2.19 | | 7 | | 86.0 | |
Australia — projected line vs season baseline (3-4-2-1)
| Player | Pos | Min | Proj G | Proj xG | Season xG/g | | Proj Sh | Season Sh/g | Proj Rtg | Season Rtg | Rec |
|---|
| Jordan Bos | D | 85 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.07 | ok | 2 | 1.3 | 75.9 | 48.6 | 7 |
| Paul Okon-Engstler | M | 85 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | 1 | 0.5 | 91.2 | 64.0 | 10 |
| Aiden O'Neill | M | 89 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 100% | 1 | 0.2 | 77.1 | 34.3 | 6 |
| Jacob Italiano | M | 78 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.09 | 90% | 1 | 0.4 | 69.9 | 42.1 | 10 |
| Cameron Burgess | D | 89 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | 0 | 0.0 | 80.2 | 32.0 | 4 |
| Harry Souttar | D | 90 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 164% | 1 | 0.2 | 80.4 | 52.5 | 4 |
| Alessandro Circati | D | 90 | 0 | 0.33 | 0.08 | 336% | 1 | 0.3 | 78.5 | 60.1 | 7 |
| Patrick Beach | G | 89 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | 0 | 0.0 | 73.4 | 60.1 | 7 |
| Connor Metcalfe | M | 85 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.03 | ok | 1 | 0.9 | 76.4 | 51.2 | 8 |
| Nestory Irankunda | F | 70 | 0 | 0.15 | 0.10 | 47% | 2 | 0.8 | 74.2 | 40.8 | 5 |
| Mohamed Touré | F | 74 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.02 | 73% | 1 | 0.5 | 74.4 | 32.8 | 4 |
| Team totals | 0 | 0.65 | | 11 | | 77.4 | |
Antagonist / tactical summary
Home midfield dominates with ~53% possession expected (Weston McKennie vs Aiden O'Neill). Total antagonist xG — Home: 1.06, Away: 0.49. Home danger zone: LW vs CB. Away danger zone: Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle.
Midfield — possession 52.9% / 47.1%, dominance ratio 0.61, key duel: Weston McKennie vs Aiden O'Neill
Malik Tillman xG 0.53Tim Weah xG 0.06Folarin Balogun xG 0.31Jordan Bos xG 0.06Nestory Irankunda xG 0.23Aiden O'Neill xG 0.06
Summary
Antagonist matchup analysis for USA vs Australia. Most likely scoreline: 2-0. Lambdas derived from 4 home and 5 away individual player duels.
Tactical parity between 4-2-3-1 and 3-4-2-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Home midfield dominates with ~53% possession expected (Weston McKennie vs Aiden O'Neill). Total antagonist xG — Home: 1.06, Away: 0.49. Home danger zone: LW vs CB. Away danger zone: Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle.
Brazil vs Haiti
FIFA World Cup · 20260619 · 4-2-3-1 vs 4-4-2
Predicted 2-0Winner: DrawConfidence 0.88λ home/away 2.81 / 0.70Most-likely P 11.8%
Actual vs predicted: result not available yet (upcoming fixture).
Lambda decomposition (how the goal rates were built)
| Stage | Brazil λ | Haiti λ |
|---|
| Pre-mismatch | 2.538 | 0.725 |
| Pre-calibration | 2.538 | 0.725 |
| Final λ | 2.813 | 0.702 |
competition calibration scale 1.0competition observed total goals 0.0quality gap applied Truemismatch score pressure applied Truecompetitive underdog floor applied Falsestage discount 1.0
Scoreline distribution & markets
| Top 5 scorelines | P |
|---|
| 2-0 | 11.8% |
| 3-0 | 11.0% |
| 1-0 | 8.4% |
| 2-1 | 8.3% |
| 4-0 | 7.8% |
| Home win | 80.9% |
| Draw | 12.5% |
| Away win | 6.6% |
| Over 2.5 | 68.2% |
| BTTS yes | 47.4% |
Pregame fair line — favorite Brazil (80.9%), fair total 3.52, fair spread 2.11
Projected players vs season baseline
Proj = projected for this match · Season = this season's per-game average from match data · deviation badge compares projected xG to the player's season xG/game.
Brazil — projected line vs season baseline (4-2-3-1)
| Player | Pos | Min | Proj G | Proj xG | Season xG/g | | Proj Sh | Season Sh/g | Proj Rtg | Season Rtg | Rec |
|---|
| Alisson | G | 90 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | 0 | 0.0 | 95.9 | 49.9 | 10 |
| Matheus Cunha | F | 30 | 0 | 0.92 | 0.19 | 390% | 2 | 1.8 | 89.9 | 47.2 | 11 |
| Raphinha | M | 92 | 1 | 0.37 | 0.12 | 200% | 2 | 1.0 | 95.9 | 28.3 | 14 |
| Luiz Henrique | M | 47 | 0 | 0.11 | - | n/a | 2 | 0.0 | 94.0 | 7.0 | 10 |
| Bruno Guimarães | M | 84 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.16 | 75% | 1 | 1.5 | 93.0 | 57.7 | 10 |
| Fabinho | M | 55 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 100% | 0 | 0.2 | 88.7 | 52.9 | 8 |
| Douglas Santos | D | 90 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 100% | 0 | 0.4 | 89.1 | 69.6 | 5 |
| Gabriel Magalhães | D | 90 | 0 | 0.35 | 0.04 | 770% | 0 | 0.4 | 90.3 | 59.1 | 17 |
| Marquinhos | D | 90 | 0 | 0.20 | 0.01 | 2408% | 1 | 0.2 | 94.4 | 66.5 | 14 |
| Danilo | D | 52 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.01 | 1046% | 0 | 0.2 | 79.8 | 36.8 | 13 |
| Vinícius Júnior | F | 92 | 1 | 0.31 | 0.55 | 43% | 3 | 2.6 | 94.9 | 53.7 | 17 |
| Team totals | 2 | 2.81 | | 13 | | 91.5 | |
Haiti — projected line vs season baseline (4-4-2)
| Player | Pos | Min | Proj G | Proj xG | Season xG/g | | Proj Sh | Season Sh/g | Proj Rtg | Season Rtg | Rec |
|---|
| Jean-Ricner Bellegarde | M | 76 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.06 | 34% | 1 | 1.2 | 82.3 | 68.0 | 5 |
| Danley Jean Jacques | M | 90 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | 0 | 0.0 | 77.1 | 47.9 | 7 |
| Louicius Don Deedson | F | 70 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.01 | 334% | 2 | 0.3 | 71.5 | 31.8 | 6 |
| Martin Expérience | D | 89 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 71% | 1 | 0.3 | 69.0 | 62.7 | 3 |
| Hannes Delcroix | D | 89 | 0 | 0.14 | 0.06 | 130% | 0 | 0.6 | 77.9 | 69.2 | 8 |
| Ricardo Adé | D | 88 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 119% | 1 | 0.2 | 84.9 | 32.1 | 21 |
| Carlens Arcus | D | 75 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | 0 | 0.0 | 77.3 | 52.5 | 6 |
| Johny Placide | G | 89 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | 0 | 0.0 | 75.8 | 68.0 | 3 |
| Ruben Providence | M | 85 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.02 | 282% | 1 | 0.6 | 87.9 | 56.7 | 7 |
| Frantzdy Pierrot | F | 79 | 0 | 0.20 | 0.12 | 71% | 2 | 0.7 | 78.7 | 43.5 | 6 |
| Wilson Isidor | F | 65 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.05 | 32% | 2 | 1.0 | 78.5 | 43.1 | 8 |
| Team totals | 0 | 0.70 | | 10 | | 78.3 | |
Antagonist / tactical summary
Home midfield dominates with ~52% possession expected (Bruno Guimarães vs Jean-Ricner Bellegarde). Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.91, Away: 0.65. Home danger zone: Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle.
Midfield — possession 52.5% / 47.5%, dominance ratio 0.61, key duel: Bruno Guimarães vs Jean-Ricner Bellegarde
Raphinha xG 0.24Matheus Cunha xG 0.44Luiz Henrique xG 0.06Frantzdy Pierrot xG 0.35Ruben Providence xG 0.12Louicius Don Deedson xG 0.08
Summary
Antagonist matchup analysis for Brazil vs Haiti. Most likely scoreline: 2-0. Lambdas derived from 5 home and 4 away individual player duels.
4-2-3-1 creates structural superiority against 4-4-2. Home team should exploit wider spaces and numerical advantages in transition. Home midfield dominates with ~52% possession expected (Bruno Guimarães vs Jean-Ricner Bellegarde). Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.91, Away: 0.65. Home danger zone: Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle.
Mexico vs South Korea
FIFA World Cup · 20260619 · 3-4-2-1 vs 3-4-2-1
Predicted 1-0Winner: DrawConfidence 0.7λ home/away 1.10 / 0.96Most-likely P 13.9%
Actual vs predicted: result not available yet (upcoming fixture).
Lambda decomposition (how the goal rates were built)
| Stage | Mexico λ | South Korea λ |
|---|
| Pre-calibration | 1.103 | 0.962 |
| Final λ | 1.103 | 0.962 |
competition calibration scale 1.0competition observed total goals 0.0quality gap applied Falsemismatch score pressure applied Falsestage discount 1.0
Scoreline distribution & markets
| Top 5 scorelines | P |
|---|
| 1-0 | 13.9% |
| 1-1 | 13.6% |
| 0-0 | 12.8% |
| 0-1 | 12.1% |
| 2-0 | 7.7% |
| Home win | 38.4% |
| Draw | 30.4% |
| Away win | 31.1% |
| Over 2.5 | 34.1% |
| BTTS yes | 41.4% |
Projected players vs season baseline
Proj = projected for this match · Season = this season's per-game average from match data · deviation badge compares projected xG to the player's season xG/game.
Mexico — projected line vs season baseline (3-4-2-1)
| Player | Pos | Min | Proj G | Proj xG | Season xG/g | | Proj Sh | Season Sh/g | Proj Rtg | Season Rtg | Rec |
|---|
| Luis Malagón | G | 90 | 0 | - | - | n/a | | - | 6.7 | - | 0 |
| Erik Lira | D | 92 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 100% | 0 | 0.1 | 7.6 | 32.0 | 11 |
| Johan Vásquez | D | 90 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.04 | 48% | 1 | 0.2 | 7.1 | 45.0 | 8 |
| César Montes | D | 82 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.02 | 300% | 1 | 0.2 | 6.9 | 56.4 | 5 |
| Edson Álvarez | M | 49 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.03 | 31% | 1 | 0.3 | 6.4 | 40.4 | 7 |
| Gilberto Mora | M | 71 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.17 | 53% | 1 | 1.6 | 6.9 | 57.6 | 7 |
| Álvaro Fidalgo | M | 57 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 100% | 1 | 0.3 | 6.5 | 36.8 | 15 |
| Marcel Ruíz | M | 59 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.10 | 44% | 1 | 2.0 | 6.9 | 66.0 | 3 |
| Armando González | F | 86 | 0 | 0.16 | 0.04 | 337% | 2 | 0.7 | 6.7 | 27.1 | 7 |
| Germán Berterame | F | 90 | 0 | 0.15 | 0.68 | 78% | 2 | 2.0 | 6.9 | 42.8 | 4 |
| Julián Quiñones | F | 90 | 1 | 0.26 | 0.53 | 52% | 2 | 3.2 | 7.0 | 68.8 | 9 |
| Team totals | 1 | 1.10 | | 13 | | 6.9 | |
South Korea — projected line vs season baseline (3-4-2-1)
| Player | Pos | Min | Proj G | Proj xG | Season xG/g | | Proj Sh | Season Sh/g | Proj Rtg | Season Rtg | Rec |
|---|
| Bum-keun Song | G | 88 | 0 | - | - | n/a | | 0.0 | 6.9 | 31.8 | 15 |
| Kim Min-jae | D | 76 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.05 | 111% | 0 | 0.4 | 7.5 | 45.8 | 11 |
| Young-woo Seol | D | 89 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 100% | 1 | 0.4 | 6.6 | 38.9 | 7 |
| Yu-min Cho | D | 90 | 0 | - | - | n/a | | - | 6.6 | - | 0 |
| Kang-in Lee | M | 62 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.02 | 337% | 2 | 0.4 | 7.0 | 34.9 | 18 |
| Hwang In-beom | M | 70 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.13 | 57% | 2 | 1.3 | 6.7 | 74.7 | 3 |
| Jens Castrop | M | 76 | 0 | 0.06 | - | n/a | 1 | 0.0 | 6.7 | 22.0 | 3 |
| Hong Hyun-seok | M | 27 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | 1 | 0.0 | 6.3 | 48.5 | 4 |
| Son Heung-min | F | 90 | 0 | 0.27 | 0.31 | ok | 3 | 2.2 | 7.0 | 42.0 | 8 |
| Hyeon-gyu Oh | F | 86 | 0 | 0.12 | 0.25 | 52% | 2 | 1.3 | 6.6 | 66.5 | 6 |
| Hwang Hee-chan | F | 59 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.04 | 112% | 2 | 0.7 | 6.3 | 65.3 | 6 |
| Team totals | 0 | 0.96 | | 14 | | 6.8 | |
Antagonist / tactical summary
Midfield is evenly contested — Edson Álvarez vs Kang-in Lee will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.82, Away: 0.73. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat.
Midfield — possession 51.4% / 48.6%, dominance ratio 0.51, key duel: Edson Álvarez vs Kang-in Lee
Edson Álvarez xG 0.03Álvaro Fidalgo xG 0.10Gilberto Mora xG 0.07Jens Castrop xG 0.05Kang-in Lee xG 0.08Hwang In-beom xG 0.06
Summary
Antagonist matchup analysis for Mexico vs South Korea. Most likely scoreline: 1-0. Lambdas derived from 7 home and 7 away individual player duels.
Tactical parity between 3-4-2-1 and 3-4-2-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Midfield is evenly contested — Edson Álvarez vs Kang-in Lee will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.82, Away: 0.73. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat.
Scotland vs Morocco
FIFA World Cup · 20260619 · 4-4-2 vs 4-2-3-1
Predicted 0-2Winner: DrawConfidence 0.83λ home/away 0.71 / 2.32Most-likely P 13.0%
Actual vs predicted: result not available yet (upcoming fixture).
Lambda decomposition (how the goal rates were built)
| Stage | Scotland λ | Morocco λ |
|---|
| Pre-calibration | 0.712 | 2.318 |
| Final λ | 0.712 | 2.318 |
competition calibration scale 1.0competition observed total goals 0.0quality gap applied Truemismatch score pressure applied Falsecompetitive underdog floor applied Falsestage discount 1.0
Scoreline distribution & markets
| Top 5 scorelines | P |
|---|
| 0-2 | 13.0% |
| 0-1 | 11.2% |
| 0-3 | 10.0% |
| 1-2 | 9.2% |
| 1-1 | 8.0% |
| Home win | 9.8% |
| Draw | 16.8% |
| Away win | 73.5% |
| Over 2.5 | 58.3% |
| BTTS yes | 45.9% |
Pregame fair line — favorite Morocco (73.5%), fair total 3.03, fair spread -1.61
Projected players vs season baseline
Proj = projected for this match · Season = this season's per-game average from match data · deviation badge compares projected xG to the player's season xG/game.
Scotland — projected line vs season baseline (4-4-2)
| Player | Pos | Min | Proj G | Proj xG | Season xG/g | | Proj Sh | Season Sh/g | Proj Rtg | Season Rtg | Rec |
|---|
| Angus Gunn | G | 89 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | 0 | 0.0 | 79.1 | 18.6 | 12 |
| Che Adams | F | 65 | 0 | 0.22 | 0.09 | 138% | 2 | 0.5 | 83.5 | 22.2 | 12 |
| John McGinn | M | 80 | 0 | 0.15 | 0.09 | 70% | 1 | 0.8 | 88.4 | 42.5 | 22 |
| Lewis Ferguson | M | 89 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 100% | 2 | 0.5 | 85.4 | 41.5 | 15 |
| Scott McTominay | M | 92 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.16 | ok | 2 | 1.3 | 91.7 | 32.1 | 13 |
| Ben Gannon-Doak | M | 67 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.02 | 93% | 2 | 0.4 | 88.2 | 16.4 | 16 |
| Andy Robertson | D | 81 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 1106% | 0 | 0.1 | 92.1 | 22.1 | 18 |
| Jack Hendry | D | 89 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | 0 | 0.0 | 81.0 | 34.1 | 12 |
| Grant Hanley | D | 87 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | 0 | 0.0 | 78.3 | 29.3 | 12 |
| Aaron Hickey | D | 71 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 100% | 0 | 0.1 | 81.0 | 14.8 | 14 |
| Lawrence Shankland | F | 81 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.12 | ok | 2 | 1.1 | 79.6 | 31.2 | 13 |
| Team totals | 0 | 0.71 | | 11 | | 84.4 | |
Morocco — projected line vs season baseline (4-2-3-1)
| Player | Pos | Min | Proj G | Proj xG | Season xG/g | | Proj Sh | Season Sh/g | Proj Rtg | Season Rtg | Rec |
|---|
| Brahim Díaz | M | 61 | 1 | 0.12 | 0.09 | ok | 2 | 0.8 | 86.0 | 46.6 | 18 |
| Neil El Aynaoui | M | 83 | 0 | 0.16 | 0.05 | 230% | 1 | 0.7 | 84.0 | 62.1 | 10 |
| Ayyoub Bouaddi | M | 85 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 100% | 0 | 0.3 | 82.1 | 55.2 | 11 |
| Noussair Mazraoui | D | 81 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | 0 | 0.0 | 87.1 | 44.9 | 11 |
| Chadi Riad | D | 89 | 0 | 0.12 | 0.02 | 528% | 0 | 0.2 | 78.6 | 25.5 | 13 |
| Issa Diop | D | 86 | 0 | 0.83 | 0.07 | 1173% | 0 | 0.1 | 82.6 | 39.8 | 12 |
| Achraf Hakimi | D | 92 | 0 | 0.19 | 0.18 | ok | 2 | 1.3 | 96.4 | 63.7 | 11 |
| Bono | G | 89 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | 0 | 0.0 | 91.8 | 62.2 | 10 |
| Azzedine Ounahi | M | 71 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.09 | ok | 2 | 1.6 | 82.9 | 65.2 | 9 |
| Bilal El Khannouss | M | 77 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.05 | ok | 2 | 1.2 | 83.0 | 51.7 | 12 |
| Ismael Saibari | M | 69 | 1 | 0.66 | 0.23 | 184% | 2 | 1.3 | 86.9 | 40.9 | 9 |
| Team totals | 2 | 2.32 | | 12 | | 85.6 | |
Antagonist / tactical summary
Midfield is evenly contested — Scott McTominay vs Ayyoub Bouaddi will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.63, Away: 1.21. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle.
Midfield — possession 48.1% / 51.9%, dominance ratio 0.45, key duel: Scott McTominay vs Ayyoub Bouaddi
Che Adams xG 0.30John McGinn xG 0.16Ben Gannon-Doak xG 0.05Bilal El Khannouss xG 0.04Ismael Saibari xG 0.83Brahim Díaz xG 0.12
Summary
Antagonist matchup analysis for Scotland vs Morocco. Most likely scoreline: 0-2. Lambdas derived from 4 home and 5 away individual player duels.
Tactical parity between 4-4-2 and 4-2-3-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Midfield is evenly contested — Scott McTominay vs Ayyoub Bouaddi will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.63, Away: 1.21. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle.
Türkiye vs Paraguay
FIFA World Cup · 20260619 · 4-2-3-1 vs 4-4-2
Predicted 2-0Winner: DrawConfidence 0.86λ home/away 2.60 / 0.72Most-likely P 12.2%
Actual vs predicted: result not available yet (upcoming fixture).
Lambda decomposition (how the goal rates were built)
| Stage | Türkiye λ | Paraguay λ |
|---|
| Pre-calibration | 2.599 | 0.724 |
| Final λ | 2.599 | 0.724 |
competition calibration scale 1.0competition observed total goals 0.0quality gap applied Truemismatch score pressure applied Falsecompetitive underdog floor applied Falsestage discount 1.0
Scoreline distribution & markets
| Top 5 scorelines | P |
|---|
| 2-0 | 12.2% |
| 3-0 | 10.5% |
| 1-0 | 9.4% |
| 2-1 | 8.8% |
| 3-1 | 7.6% |
| Home win | 77.6% |
| Draw | 14.3% |
| Away win | 8.1% |
| Over 2.5 | 64.5% |
| BTTS yes | 47.7% |
Pregame fair line — favorite Türkiye (77.6%), fair total 3.32, fair spread 1.88
Projected players vs season baseline
Proj = projected for this match · Season = this season's per-game average from match data · deviation badge compares projected xG to the player's season xG/game.
Türkiye — projected line vs season baseline (4-2-3-1)
| Player | Pos | Min | Proj G | Proj xG | Season xG/g | | Proj Sh | Season Sh/g | Proj Rtg | Season Rtg | Rec |
|---|
| Uğurcan Çakır | G | 91 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | 0 | 0.0 | 86.4 | 64.4 | 9 |
| Deniz Gül | F | 22 | 0 | 0.18 | 0.20 | ok | 2 | 0.8 | 72.4 | 44.8 | 13 |
| Kenan Yıldız | F | 54 | 0 | 0.24 | 0.08 | 197% | 3 | 2.4 | 86.3 | 50.4 | 10 |
| Can Uzun | M | 88 | 1 | 0.78 | 0.22 | 263% | 2 | 1.7 | 82.0 | 52.0 | 7 |
| Arda Güler | M | 87 | 1 | 0.29 | 0.10 | 178% | 3 | 1.4 | 87.9 | 48.0 | 17 |
| İsmail Yüksek | M | 80 | 0 | 0.20 | 0.07 | 178% | 1 | 1.5 | 84.4 | 58.3 | 10 |
| Hakan Çalhanoğlu | M | 90 | 0 | 0.28 | 0.06 | 381% | 5 | 2.9 | 93.3 | 42.6 | 7 |
| Ferdi Kadıoğlu | D | 91 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.01 | 637% | 1 | 0.4 | 85.7 | 40.2 | 12 |
| Abdülkerim Bardakcı | D | 88 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.02 | 91% | 1 | 0.8 | 86.7 | 62.5 | 10 |
| Merih Demiral | D | 87 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.05 | 43% | 1 | 1.0 | 84.7 | 48.3 | 7 |
| Mert Müldür | D | 19 | 0 | 0.28 | 0.04 | 520% | 0 | 0.4 | 80.7 | 53.8 | 9 |
| Team totals | 2 | 2.60 | | 21 | | 84.6 | |
Paraguay — projected line vs season baseline (4-4-2)
| Player | Pos | Min | Proj G | Proj xG | Season xG/g | | Proj Sh | Season Sh/g | Proj Rtg | Season Rtg | Rec |
|---|
| Julio Enciso | M | 86 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.14 | 59% | 2 | 1.3 | 80.3 | 37.8 | 15 |
| Antonio Sanabria | F | 61 | 0 | 0.13 | - | n/a | 2 | 0.0 | 82.4 | 21.5 | 6 |
| Mauricio | M | 43 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.04 | 138% | 2 | 0.5 | 84.2 | 36.5 | 13 |
| Diego Gómez | M | 78 | 0 | 0.12 | 0.13 | ok | 2 | 1.3 | 79.2 | 42.0 | 9 |
| Andrés Cubas | M | 89 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 100% | 0 | 0.1 | 80.8 | 38.3 | 9 |
| Miguel Almirón | M | 79 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.01 | 200% | 2 | 0.4 | 82.5 | 28.1 | 9 |
| Alexandro Maidana | D | 88 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | 0 | 0.1 | 64.7 | 29.3 | 9 |
| Omar Alderete | D | 89 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 659% | 0 | 0.2 | 84.4 | 45.0 | 9 |
| Gustavo Gómez | D | 90 | 0 | 0.17 | 0.02 | 675% | 0 | 0.2 | 88.2 | 38.9 | 14 |
| Juan Cáceres | D | 77 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 100% | 0 | 0.4 | 90.4 | 55.6 | 5 |
| Orlando Gill | G | 90 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | 0 | 0.0 | 68.1 | 47.1 | 9 |
| Team totals | 0 | 0.72 | | 10 | | 80.5 | |
Antagonist / tactical summary
Midfield is evenly contested — Arda Güler vs Diego Gómez will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 1.47, Away: 0.63. Home danger zone: Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle.
Midfield — possession 51.3% / 48.7%, dominance ratio 0.54, key duel: Arda Güler vs Diego Gómez
Can Uzun xG 0.77Deniz Gül xG 0.13Arda Güler xG 0.25Antonio Sanabria xG 0.19Julio Enciso xG 0.09Diego Gómez xG 0.19
Summary
Antagonist matchup analysis for Türkiye vs Paraguay. Most likely scoreline: 2-0. Lambdas derived from 5 home and 4 away individual player duels.
4-2-3-1 creates structural superiority against 4-4-2. Home team should exploit wider spaces and numerical advantages in transition. Midfield is evenly contested — Arda Güler vs Diego Gómez will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 1.47, Away: 0.63. Home danger zone: Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle.
Generated 2026-09-04 22:27:55 UTC · Soccer prediction reporting