Soccer predictions: actual data vs predicted data
Slate 20260622 · 4 match(es)
How to read this report. Each match shows the model's headline prediction, the stage-by-stage lambda (goal-rate) build, both teams' standing/form inputs, and every starter's projected line next to their real season baseline. A moderate / large deviation badge flags a projection that strays far from the player's season form — a quick way to spot when the inputs look right but a projection does not. When the real result is known an actual-vs-predicted banner appears.
All matches overview
| Match | Score | Winner | H / D / A | O2.5 | BTTS | Conf | λ H/A | Actual | Result |
|---|
| Argentina vs Austria FIFA World Cup | 2-0 | Draw | 69.9% / 18.7% / 11.4% | 54.6% | 45.6% | 0.81 | 2.14 / 0.73 | - | pending |
| Jordan vs Algeria FIFA World Cup | 1-1 | Draw | 27.7% / 27.3% / 45.0% | 43.0% | 47.9% | 0.73 | 1.02 / 1.38 | - | pending |
| France vs Iraq FIFA World Cup | 4-0 | Draw | 95.3% / 3.3% / 1.3% | 90.6% | 47.4% | 0.95 | 4.80 / 0.65 | - | pending |
| Norway vs Senegal FIFA World Cup | 2-0 | Draw | 66.8% / 18.9% / 14.3% | 60.5% | 53.4% | 0.81 | 2.21 / 0.92 | - | pending |
Match detail
Argentina vs Austria
FIFA World Cup · 20260622 · 4-4-2 vs 3-4-1-2
Predicted 2-0Winner: DrawConfidence 0.81λ home/away 2.14 / 0.73Most-likely P 13.0%
Actual vs predicted: result not available yet (upcoming fixture).
Lambda decomposition (how the goal rates were built)
| Stage | Argentina λ | Austria λ |
|---|
| Pre-calibration | 2.136 | 0.728 |
| Final λ | 2.136 | 0.728 |
competition calibration scale 1.0competition observed total goals 0.0quality gap applied Truemismatch score pressure applied Falsecompetitive underdog floor applied Falsestage discount 1.0
Scoreline distribution & markets
| Top 5 scorelines | P |
|---|
| 2-0 | 13.0% |
| 1-0 | 12.2% |
| 2-1 | 9.5% |
| 3-0 | 9.3% |
| 1-1 | 8.9% |
| Home win | 69.9% |
| Draw | 18.7% |
| Away win | 11.4% |
| Over 2.5 | 54.6% |
| BTTS yes | 45.6% |
Pregame fair line — favorite Argentina (69.9%), fair total 2.86, fair spread 1.41
Projected players vs season baseline
Proj = projected for this match · Season = this season's per-game average from match data · deviation badge compares projected xG to the player's season xG/game.
Argentina — projected line vs season baseline (4-4-2)
| Player | Pos | Min | Proj G | Proj xG | Season xG/g | | Proj Sh | Season Sh/g | Proj Rtg | Season Rtg | Rec |
|---|
| Julián Alvarez | F | 49 | 1 | 0.27 | 0.25 | ok | 2 | 1.4 | 93.9 | 44.4 | 18 |
| Lionel Messi | F | 80 | 1 | 0.83 | 0.49 | 69% | 2 | 2.8 | 95.5 | 51.8 | 12 |
| Nicolás González | M | 50 | 0 | 0.13 | 0.03 | 300% | 2 | 0.2 | 87.0 | 33.1 | 16 |
| Alexis Mac Allister | M | 92 | 0 | 0.13 | 0.13 | ok | 2 | 1.2 | 93.8 | 42.6 | 17 |
| Rodrigo De Paul | M | 89 | 0 | 0.15 | 0.10 | 57% | 1 | 0.5 | 91.1 | 38.3 | 11 |
| Facundo Medina | D | 82 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | 0 | 0.0 | 86.1 | 31.3 | 9 |
| Lisandro Martínez | D | 92 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.01 | 700% | 0 | 0.2 | 88.5 | 38.2 | 13 |
| Cristian Romero | D | 84 | 0 | 0.13 | 0.03 | 321% | 0 | 0.2 | 89.4 | 32.4 | 13 |
| Nahuel Molina | D | 50 | 0 | 0.12 | 0.01 | 1572% | 0 | 0.1 | 85.8 | 41.9 | 14 |
| Emiliano Martínez | G | 90 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | 0 | 0.0 | 91.8 | 48.4 | 20 |
| Enzo Fernández | M | 88 | 0 | 0.18 | 0.09 | 103% | 2 | 0.9 | 91.3 | 39.2 | 15 |
| Team totals | 2 | 2.14 | | 11 | | 90.4 | |
Austria — projected line vs season baseline (3-4-1-2)
| Player | Pos | Min | Proj G | Proj xG | Season xG/g | | Proj Sh | Season Sh/g | Proj Rtg | Season Rtg | Rec |
|---|
| Nicolas Seiwald | M | 84 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 100% | 2 | 0.5 | 84.3 | 60.1 | 8 |
| Konrad Laimer | D | 86 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.04 | 60% | 1 | 0.2 | 88.7 | 48.9 | 16 |
| David Alaba | D | 58 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 48% | 1 | 0.2 | 88.9 | 40.9 | 12 |
| Kevin Danso | D | 43 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.03 | 95% | 0 | 0.5 | 86.1 | 49.7 | 12 |
| Philipp Lienhart | D | 83 | 0 | 0.13 | 0.06 | 130% | 0 | 0.4 | 86.2 | 50.2 | 16 |
| Alexander Schlager | G | 89 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | 0 | 0.0 | 80.2 | 62.7 | 10 |
| Xaver Schlager | M | 64 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 100% | 0 | 0.3 | 87.1 | 36.6 | 11 |
| Phillipp Mwene | M | 68 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.10 | 44% | 1 | 0.4 | 82.8 | 29.3 | 12 |
| Marcel Sabitzer | M | 89 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 90% | 1 | 0.8 | 86.8 | 54.7 | 9 |
| Romano Schmid | M | 79 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.04 | 58% | 2 | 0.8 | 85.2 | 61.0 | 8 |
| Marko Arnautović | F | 50 | 0 | 0.37 | 0.27 | 39% | 2 | 0.9 | 94.1 | 49.9 | 7 |
| Team totals | 0 | 0.73 | | 11 | | 86.4 | |
Antagonist / tactical summary
Home midfield dominates with ~52% possession expected (Enzo Fernández vs Nicolas Seiwald). Total antagonist xG — Home: 1.16, Away: 1.02. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: CAM vs CM.
Midfield — possession 51.7% / 48.3%, dominance ratio 0.57, key duel: Enzo Fernández vs Nicolas Seiwald
Rodrigo De Paul xG 0.09Nicolás González xG 0.09Enzo Fernández xG 0.13Romano Schmid xG 0.02Marko Arnautović xG 0.77Phillipp Mwene xG 0.09
Summary
Antagonist matchup analysis for Argentina vs Austria. Most likely scoreline: 2-0. Lambdas derived from 6 home and 5 away individual player duels.
Tactical parity between 4-4-2 and 3-4-1-2. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Home midfield dominates with ~52% possession expected (Enzo Fernández vs Nicolas Seiwald). Total antagonist xG — Home: 1.16, Away: 1.02. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: CAM vs CM.
Jordan vs Algeria
FIFA World Cup · 20260622 · 3-4-3 vs 4-2-3-1
Predicted 1-1Winner: DrawConfidence 0.73λ home/away 1.02 / 1.38Most-likely P 12.9%
Actual vs predicted: result not available yet (upcoming fixture).
Lambda decomposition (how the goal rates were built)
| Stage | Jordan λ | Algeria λ |
|---|
| Pre-competitive-floor | 0.708 | 1.378 |
| Pre-calibration | 0.708 | 1.378 |
| Final λ | 1.020 | 1.378 |
competition calibration scale 1.0competition observed total goals 0.0quality gap applied Truemismatch score pressure applied Falsecompetitive underdog floor applied Truestage discount 1.0
Scoreline distribution & markets
| Top 5 scorelines | P |
|---|
| 1-1 | 12.9% |
| 0-1 | 12.4% |
| 1-0 | 9.2% |
| 0-0 | 9.2% |
| 1-2 | 8.8% |
| Home win | 27.7% |
| Draw | 27.3% |
| Away win | 45.0% |
| Over 2.5 | 43.0% |
| BTTS yes | 47.9% |
Pregame fair line — favorite Algeria (45.0%), fair total 2.40, fair spread -0.36
Projected players vs season baseline
Proj = projected for this match · Season = this season's per-game average from match data · deviation badge compares projected xG to the player's season xG/game.
Jordan — projected line vs season baseline (3-4-3)
| Player | Pos | Min | Proj G | Proj xG | Season xG/g | | Proj Sh | Season Sh/g | Proj Rtg | Season Rtg | Rec |
|---|
| Mousa Tamari | F | 89 | 0 | 0.29 | 0.23 | ok | 2 | 2.7 | 90.6 | 69.2 | 6 |
| Ali Olwan | F | 89 | 1 | 0.36 | 0.09 | 298% | 2 | 2.0 | 90.6 | 69.7 | 3 |
| Odeh Fakhoury | F | 78 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.02 | 238% | 2 | 0.5 | 86.6 | 65.8 | 4 |
| Mohannad Abu Taha | M | 89 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 100% | 1 | 0.2 | 88.3 | 50.8 | 4 |
| Noor Al-Rawabdeh | M | 89 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 100% | 2 | 0.3 | 86.8 | 67.3 | 3 |
| Nizar Al-Rashdan | M | 89 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 100% | 2 | 0.9 | 89.9 | 69.3 | 7 |
| Ehsan Haddad | M | 81 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.01 | 1796% | 1 | 0.3 | 88.4 | 66.0 | 3 |
| Mo Abualnadi | D | 72 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | 0 | 0.0 | 86.3 | 21.3 | 3 |
| Abdallah Nasib | D | 81 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | 0 | 0.0 | 86.2 | 63.7 | 3 |
| Yazan Al-Arab | D | 85 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | 0 | 0.4 | 81.2 | 38.0 | 14 |
| Yazeed Abu Laila | G | 89 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | 0 | 0.0 | 86.8 | 64.3 | 3 |
| Team totals | 1 | 1.02 | | 12 | | 87.4 | |
Algeria — projected line vs season baseline (4-2-3-1)
| Player | Pos | Min | Proj G | Proj xG | Season xG/g | | Proj Sh | Season Sh/g | Proj Rtg | Season Rtg | Rec |
|---|
| Amine Gouiri | F | 69 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.20 | 98% | 0 | 1.2 | 85.3 | 67.0 | 6 |
| Ibrahim Maza | F | 85 | 0 | 0.13 | 0.24 | 46% | 3 | 2.2 | 77.6 | 50.6 | 12 |
| Riyad Mahrez | M | 44 | 0 | 0.16 | 0.25 | 35% | 2 | 1.8 | 90.9 | 64.9 | 8 |
| Nabil Bentaleb | M | 78 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 100% | 0 | 0.6 | 83.7 | 70.6 | 8 |
| Houssem Aouar | M | 39 | 1 | 0.15 | 0.29 | 48% | 2 | 2.0 | 83.4 | 60.6 | 7 |
| Rayan Aït-Nouri | D | 80 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.02 | 254% | 0 | 0.2 | 87.3 | 44.2 | 12 |
| Ramy Bensebaini | D | 90 | 0 | 0.49 | 0.09 | 472% | 0 | 0.8 | 85.8 | 73.4 | 5 |
| Aïssa Mandi | D | 86 | 0 | 0.19 | 0.01 | 1211% | 0 | 0.3 | 82.0 | 52.9 | 13 |
| Rafik Belghali | M | 88 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 100% | 0 | 0.4 | 72.2 | 46.4 | 10 |
| Luca Zidane | G | 89 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | 0 | 0.0 | 77.3 | 47.5 | 4 |
| Farès Chaïbi | M | 76 | 0 | 0.13 | 0.08 | 52% | 2 | 1.6 | 80.6 | 57.9 | 8 |
| Team totals | 1 | 1.38 | | 9 | | 82.4 | |
Antagonist / tactical summary
Midfield is evenly contested — Nizar Al-Rashdan vs Farès Chaïbi will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.60, Away: 0.43. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: LW vs CB.
Midfield — possession 48.8% / 51.2%, dominance ratio 0.44, key duel: Nizar Al-Rashdan vs Farès Chaïbi
Mohannad Abu Taha xG 0.05Nizar Al-Rashdan xG 0.10Noor Al-Rawabdeh xG 0.09Riyad Mahrez xG 0.12Farès Chaïbi xG 0.10Houssem Aouar xG 0.11
Summary
Antagonist matchup analysis for Jordan vs Algeria. Most likely scoreline: 1-1. Lambdas derived from 7 home and 4 away individual player duels.
Tactical parity between 3-4-3 and 4-2-3-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Midfield is evenly contested — Nizar Al-Rashdan vs Farès Chaïbi will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.60, Away: 0.43. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: LW vs CB.
France vs Iraq
FIFA World Cup · 20260622 · 4-2-3-1 vs 4-4-2
Predicted 4-0Winner: DrawConfidence 0.95λ home/away 4.80 / 0.65Most-likely P 9.8%
Actual vs predicted: result not available yet (upcoming fixture).
Lambda decomposition (how the goal rates were built)
| Stage | France λ | Iraq λ |
|---|
| Pre-mismatch | 4.295 | 0.675 |
| Pre-calibration | 4.295 | 0.675 |
| Final λ | 4.800 | 0.650 |
competition calibration scale 1.0competition observed total goals 0.0quality gap applied Truemismatch score pressure applied Truecompetitive underdog floor applied Falsestage discount 1.0
Scoreline distribution & markets
| Top 5 scorelines | P |
|---|
| 4-0 | 9.8% |
| 5-0 | 9.4% |
| 3-0 | 8.1% |
| 6-0 | 7.5% |
| 4-1 | 6.3% |
| Home win | 95.3% |
| Draw | 3.3% |
| Away win | 1.3% |
| Over 2.5 | 90.6% |
| BTTS yes | 47.4% |
Pregame fair line — favorite France (95.3%), fair total 5.45, fair spread 4.15
Projected players vs season baseline
Proj = projected for this match · Season = this season's per-game average from match data · deviation badge compares projected xG to the player's season xG/game.
France — projected line vs season baseline (4-2-3-1)
| Player | Pos | Min | Proj G | Proj xG | Season xG/g | | Proj Sh | Season Sh/g | Proj Rtg | Season Rtg | Rec |
|---|
| Kylian Mbappé | F | 87 | 2 | 1.32 | 0.55 | 142% | 3 | 3.5 | 99.0 | 57.6 | 19 |
| Bradley Barcola | F | 22 | 1 | 1.02 | 0.17 | 496% | 2 | 1.1 | 91.9 | 61.7 | 18 |
| Ousmane Dembélé | F | 78 | 0 | 0.15 | 0.24 | 36% | 3 | 1.6 | 97.1 | 54.3 | 24 |
| Michael Olise | M | 89 | 1 | 0.64 | 0.29 | 121% | 2 | 2.8 | 93.9 | 73.5 | 17 |
| Adrien Rabiot | M | 91 | 0 | 0.20 | 0.12 | 74% | 1 | 1.5 | 90.4 | 57.3 | 12 |
| Manu Koné | M | 78 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 100% | 0 | 0.5 | 86.0 | 42.8 | 11 |
| Lucas Digne | D | 86 | 0 | 0.14 | 0.01 | 979% | 0 | 0.3 | 86.6 | 50.0 | 19 |
| Dayot Upamecano | D | 91 | 0 | 0.76 | 0.11 | 577% | 0 | 0.6 | 93.0 | 59.0 | 18 |
| William Saliba | D | 92 | 0 | 0.18 | 0.01 | 1473% | 0 | 0.2 | 93.9 | 51.4 | 19 |
| Jules Koundé | D | 92 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.01 | 858% | 0 | 0.2 | 93.8 | 47.4 | 17 |
| Mike Maignan | G | 91 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | 0 | 0.0 | 93.5 | 63.8 | 12 |
| Team totals | 4 | 4.80 | | 12 | | 92.7 | |
Iraq — projected line vs season baseline (4-4-2)
| Player | Pos | Min | Proj G | Proj xG | Season xG/g | | Proj Sh | Season Sh/g | Proj Rtg | Season Rtg | Rec |
|---|
| Amir Al-Ammari | M | 89 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | 1 | 0.0 | 71.9 | 65.7 | 3 |
| Ibrahim Bayesh | M | 78 | 0 | 0.14 | 0.06 | 115% | 1 | 0.3 | 74.6 | 64.0 | 3 |
| Merchas Doski | D | 89 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 195% | 0 | 0.3 | 74.9 | 67.2 | 6 |
| Akam Hashem | D | 89 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.01 | 166% | 1 | 0.3 | 86.0 | 62.3 | 3 |
| Zaid Tahseen | D | 88 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.01 | 599% | 2 | 0.3 | 85.5 | 29.3 | 11 |
| Hussein Ali | D | 73 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.01 | 168% | 1 | 0.3 | 87.0 | 40.3 | 3 |
| Jalal Hassan | G | 89 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | 0 | 0.0 | 89.0 | 43.3 | 3 |
| Zidane Iqbal | M | 31 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | 2 | 0.0 | 74.5 | 65.7 | 3 |
| Ali Jasim | M | 73 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 100% | 1 | 1.0 | 68.6 | 38.1 | 7 |
| Ali Al-Hamadi | F | 59 | 0 | 0.14 | 0.15 | ok | 2 | 1.2 | 72.5 | 39.0 | 5 |
| Aymen Hussein | F | 89 | 0 | 0.18 | 0.05 | 264% | 3 | 0.8 | 91.1 | 34.5 | 4 |
| Team totals | 0 | 0.65 | | 14 | | 79.6 | |
Antagonist / tactical summary
Home midfield dominates with ~55% possession expected (Michael Olise vs Zidane Iqbal). Total antagonist xG — Home: 1.86, Away: 0.46. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle.
Midfield — possession 55.2% / 44.8%, dominance ratio 0.64, key duel: Michael Olise vs Zidane Iqbal
Michael Olise xG 0.47Bradley Barcola xG 0.52Ousmane Dembélé xG 0.08Ali Al-Hamadi xG 0.15Amir Al-Ammari xG 0.10Zidane Iqbal xG 0.13
Summary
Antagonist matchup analysis for France vs Iraq. Most likely scoreline: 4-0. Lambdas derived from 5 home and 4 away individual player duels.
4-2-3-1 creates structural superiority against 4-4-2. Home team should exploit wider spaces and numerical advantages in transition. Home midfield dominates with ~55% possession expected (Michael Olise vs Zidane Iqbal). Total antagonist xG — Home: 1.86, Away: 0.46. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle.
Norway vs Senegal
FIFA World Cup · 20260622 · 4-4-2 vs 4-3-3
Predicted 2-0Winner: DrawConfidence 0.81λ home/away 2.21 / 0.92Most-likely P 10.7%
Actual vs predicted: result not available yet (upcoming fixture).
Lambda decomposition (how the goal rates were built)
| Stage | Norway λ | Senegal λ |
|---|
| Pre-calibration | 2.213 | 0.916 |
| Final λ | 2.213 | 0.916 |
competition calibration scale 1.0competition observed total goals 0.0quality gap applied Truemismatch score pressure applied Falsecompetitive underdog floor applied Falsestage discount 1.0
Scoreline distribution & markets
| Top 5 scorelines | P |
|---|
| 2-0 | 10.7% |
| 2-1 | 9.8% |
| 1-0 | 9.7% |
| 1-1 | 8.9% |
| 3-0 | 7.9% |
| Home win | 66.8% |
| Draw | 18.9% |
| Away win | 14.3% |
| Over 2.5 | 60.5% |
| BTTS yes | 53.4% |
Pregame fair line — favorite Norway (66.8%), fair total 3.13, fair spread 1.30
Projected players vs season baseline
Proj = projected for this match · Season = this season's per-game average from match data · deviation badge compares projected xG to the player's season xG/game.
Norway — projected line vs season baseline (4-4-2)
| Player | Pos | Min | Proj G | Proj xG | Season xG/g | | Proj Sh | Season Sh/g | Proj Rtg | Season Rtg | Rec |
|---|
| Erling Haaland | F | 91 | 2 | 1.81 | 0.46 | 292% | 3 | 2.1 | 98.1 | 40.1 | 15 |
| Alexander Sørloth | F | 62 | 0 | 0.20 | 0.06 | 217% | 2 | 0.5 | 90.3 | 41.4 | 19 |
| Fredrik Aursnes | M | 77 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 100% | 2 | 0.3 | 86.9 | 51.0 | 12 |
| Sander Berge | M | 88 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 100% | 2 | 0.2 | 86.2 | 31.8 | 13 |
| Martin Ødegaard | M | 76 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.12 | 72% | 2 | 0.8 | 94.4 | 39.2 | 16 |
| David Møller Wolfe | D | 73 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | 0 | 0.0 | 80.3 | 46.8 | 10 |
| Torbjørn Heggem | D | 80 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 100% | 0 | 0.1 | 79.8 | 46.0 | 13 |
| Kristoffer Ajer | D | 90 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 100% | 0 | 0.1 | 82.1 | 31.5 | 13 |
| Julian Ryerson | M | 91 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 100% | 0 | 0.2 | 85.8 | 34.6 | 14 |
| Ørjan Nyland | G | 89 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | 0 | 0.0 | 82.5 | 35.2 | 10 |
| Antonio Nusa | F | 66 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.03 | 79% | 0 | 0.6 | 82.8 | 44.3 | 12 |
| Team totals | 2 | 2.21 | | 11 | | 86.3 | |
Senegal — projected line vs season baseline (4-3-3)
| Player | Pos | Min | Proj G | Proj xG | Season xG/g | | Proj Sh | Season Sh/g | Proj Rtg | Season Rtg | Rec |
|---|
| Idrissa Gana Gueye | M | 88 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 100% | 2 | 0.8 | 88.7 | 55.2 | 4 |
| Lamine Camara | M | 81 | 0 | 0.32 | 0.08 | 287% | 2 | 1.2 | 83.5 | 61.0 | 6 |
| El Hadji Malick Diouf | D | 92 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 100% | 0 | 0.1 | 81.4 | 47.6 | 7 |
| Moussa Niakhaté | D | 87 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 100% | 0 | 0.1 | 83.6 | 59.3 | 9 |
| Kalidou Koulibaly | D | 90 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | 0 | 0.0 | 88.3 | 38.3 | 3 |
| Krépin Diatta | M | 90 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.01 | 666% | 1 | 0.1 | 80.9 | 25.9 | 8 |
| Edouard Mendy | G | 90 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | 0 | 0.0 | 86.8 | 57.2 | 6 |
| Pape Gueye | M | 82 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 100% | 0 | 0.9 | 84.9 | 47.7 | 11 |
| Ibrahim Mbaye | F | 17 | 0 | 0.15 | 0.03 | 384% | 2 | 0.3 | 73.4 | 29.7 | 12 |
| Nicolas Jackson | F | 72 | 0 | 0.13 | 0.17 | ok | 2 | 1.4 | 86.3 | 41.2 | 15 |
| Sadio Mané | M | 90 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.23 | 65% | 1 | 1.0 | 89.5 | 51.4 | 8 |
| Team totals | 0 | 0.92 | | 11 | | 84.3 | |
Antagonist / tactical summary
Midfield is evenly contested — Martin Ødegaard vs Lamine Camara will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 1.77, Away: 0.67. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest.
Midfield — possession 50.4% / 49.6%, dominance ratio 0.53, key duel: Martin Ødegaard vs Lamine Camara
Erling Haaland xG 1.43Fredrik Aursnes xG 0.18Martin Ødegaard xG 0.03Ibrahim Mbaye xG 0.11Idrissa Gana Gueye xG 0.18Nicolas Jackson xG 0.10
Summary
Antagonist matchup analysis for Norway vs Senegal. Most likely scoreline: 2-0. Lambdas derived from 4 home and 5 away individual player duels.
Tactical parity between 4-4-2 and 4-3-3. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Midfield is evenly contested — Martin Ødegaard vs Lamine Camara will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 1.77, Away: 0.67. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest.
Generated 2026-09-04 22:27:55 UTC · Soccer prediction reporting