Soccer predictions: actual data vs predicted data
Slate 20260623 · 4 match(es)
How to read this report. Each match shows the model's headline prediction, the stage-by-stage lambda (goal-rate) build, both teams' standing/form inputs, and every starter's projected line next to their real season baseline. A moderate / large deviation badge flags a projection that strays far from the player's season form — a quick way to spot when the inputs look right but a projection does not. When the real result is known an actual-vs-predicted banner appears.
All matches overview
| Match | Score | Winner | H / D / A | O2.5 | BTTS | Conf | λ H/A | Actual | Result |
|---|
| Panama vs Croatia FIFA World Cup | 1-1 | Draw | 22.5% / 23.6% / 53.9% | 53.2% | 53.8% | 0.76 | 1.05 / 1.76 | - | pending |
| Colombia vs DR Congo FIFA World Cup | 1-1 | Draw | 52.1% / 24.3% / 23.6% | 51.4% | 52.9% | 0.76 | 1.68 / 1.05 | - | pending |
| England vs Ghana FIFA World Cup | 3-0 | Draw | 86.9% / 8.8% / 4.3% | 77.4% | 48.8% | 0.91 | 3.39 / 0.70 | - | pending |
| Portugal vs Uzbekistan FIFA World Cup | 2-0 | Draw | 77.0% / 14.9% / 8.1% | 61.6% | 45.4% | 0.85 | 2.50 / 0.68 | - | pending |
Match detail
Panama vs Croatia
FIFA World Cup · 20260623 · 3-4-3 vs 4-2-3-1
Predicted 1-1Winner: DrawConfidence 0.76λ home/away 1.05 / 1.76Most-likely P 11.2%
Actual vs predicted: result not available yet (upcoming fixture).
Lambda decomposition (how the goal rates were built)
| Stage | Panama λ | Croatia λ |
|---|
| Pre-mismatch | 0.751 | 1.622 |
| Pre-competitive-floor | 0.735 | 1.757 |
| Pre-calibration | 0.751 | 1.622 |
| Final λ | 1.050 | 1.757 |
competition calibration scale 1.0competition observed total goals 0.0quality gap applied Truemismatch score pressure applied Truecompetitive underdog floor applied Truestage discount 1.0
Scoreline distribution & markets
| Top 5 scorelines | P |
|---|
| 1-1 | 11.2% |
| 0-1 | 10.6% |
| 1-2 | 9.8% |
| 0-2 | 9.3% |
| 1-0 | 6.3% |
| Home win | 22.5% |
| Draw | 23.6% |
| Away win | 53.9% |
| Over 2.5 | 53.2% |
| BTTS yes | 53.8% |
Pregame fair line — favorite Croatia (53.9%), fair total 2.81, fair spread -0.71
Projected players vs season baseline
Proj = projected for this match · Season = this season's per-game average from match data · deviation badge compares projected xG to the player's season xG/game.
Panama — projected line vs season baseline (3-4-3)
| Player | Pos | Min | Proj G | Proj xG | Season xG/g | | Proj Sh | Season Sh/g | Proj Rtg | Season Rtg | Rec |
|---|
| José Luis Rodríguez | M | 77 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.11 | ok | 2 | 0.8 | 84.2 | 50.6 | 5 |
| Cecilio Waterman | F | 68 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.01 | 431% | 2 | 1.0 | 85.6 | 36.3 | 10 |
| Yoel Bárcenas | M | 88 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.20 | 62% | 1 | 1.2 | 86.9 | 69.2 | 5 |
| Cristian Martínez | M | 64 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.02 | 198% | 1 | 0.2 | 87.7 | 49.8 | 4 |
| Carlos Harvey | M | 83 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.05 | 33% | 2 | 0.8 | 71.2 | 31.8 | 6 |
| Amir Murillo | D | 88 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.07 | 44% | 0 | 1.0 | 83.2 | 47.9 | 7 |
| José Córdoba | D | 90 | 0 | 0.03 | - | n/a | 0 | 0.0 | 74.4 | 66.0 | 3 |
| Jiovany Ramos | D | 89 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.01 | 1183% | 1 | 0.2 | 90.5 | 40.8 | 12 |
| César Blackman | D | 89 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 495% | 2 | 0.5 | 86.6 | 51.8 | 8 |
| Orlando Mosquera | G | 89 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | 0 | 0.0 | 76.7 | 66.8 | 5 |
| Andrés Andrade | D | 89 | 0 | 0.26 | 0.03 | 746% | 0 | 0.2 | 76.6 | 68.9 | 8 |
| Team totals | 1 | 1.05 | | 12 | | 82.1 | |
Croatia — projected line vs season baseline (4-2-3-1)
| Player | Pos | Min | Proj G | Proj xG | Season xG/g | | Proj Sh | Season Sh/g | Proj Rtg | Season Rtg | Rec |
|---|
| Luka Modrić | M | 50 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 100% | 0 | 0.3 | 89.2 | 59.3 | 6 |
| Joško Gvardiol | D | 80 | 0 | 0.29 | 0.03 | 1031% | 1 | 0.2 | 90.1 | 39.3 | 10 |
| Marin Pongračić | D | 81 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 100% | 0 | 0.1 | 80.8 | 58.4 | 7 |
| Josip Šutalo | D | 90 | 0 | 0.26 | 0.03 | 694% | 1 | 0.2 | 84.2 | 68.2 | 5 |
| Josip Stanišić | D | 85 | 0 | 0.41 | 0.08 | 381% | 0 | 0.4 | 84.8 | 62.4 | 14 |
| Dominik Livaković | G | 90 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | 0 | 0.0 | 87.4 | 69.2 | 9 |
| Mateo Kovačić | M | 32 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.03 | ok | 1 | 0.5 | 90.0 | 39.9 | 12 |
| Martin Baturina | M | 77 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.06 | 33% | 2 | 1.1 | 85.8 | 62.6 | 8 |
| Petar Sučić | M | 90 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.04 | 72% | 2 | 0.8 | 81.0 | 63.8 | 8 |
| Ivan Perišić | M | 86 | 1 | 0.20 | 0.05 | 279% | 2 | 0.8 | 87.8 | 55.6 | 8 |
| Ante Budimir | F | 89 | 0 | 0.34 | 0.24 | 39% | 2 | 1.6 | 88.4 | 34.8 | 11 |
| Team totals | 1 | 1.76 | | 11 | | 86.3 | |
Antagonist / tactical summary
Away midfield dictates play with ~52% possession expected (José Luis Rodríguez vs Petar Sučić). Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.31, Away: 0.40. Home danger zone: Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle.
Midfield — possession 47.7% / 52.3%, dominance ratio 0.41, key duel: José Luis Rodríguez vs Petar Sučić
Yoel Bárcenas xG 0.05Carlos Harvey xG 0.04José Luis Rodríguez xG 0.10Petar Sučić xG 0.01Martin Baturina xG 0.06Ivan Perišić xG 0.12
Summary
Antagonist matchup analysis for Panama vs Croatia. Most likely scoreline: 1-1. Lambdas derived from 7 home and 4 away individual player duels.
Tactical parity between 3-4-3 and 4-2-3-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Away midfield dictates play with ~52% possession expected (José Luis Rodríguez vs Petar Sučić). Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.31, Away: 0.40. Home danger zone: Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle.
Colombia vs DR Congo
FIFA World Cup · 20260623 · 4-2-3-1 vs 5-3-2
Predicted 1-1Winner: DrawConfidence 0.76λ home/away 1.68 / 1.05Most-likely P 11.6%
Actual vs predicted: result not available yet (upcoming fixture).
Lambda decomposition (how the goal rates were built)
| Stage | Colombia λ | DR Congo λ |
|---|
| Pre-competitive-floor | 1.680 | 0.717 |
| Pre-calibration | 1.680 | 0.717 |
| Final λ | 1.680 | 1.050 |
competition calibration scale 1.0competition observed total goals 0.0quality gap applied Truemismatch score pressure applied Falsecompetitive underdog floor applied Truestage discount 1.0
Scoreline distribution & markets
| Top 5 scorelines | P |
|---|
| 1-1 | 11.6% |
| 1-0 | 10.9% |
| 2-1 | 9.7% |
| 2-0 | 9.2% |
| 0-1 | 6.8% |
| Home win | 52.1% |
| Draw | 24.3% |
| Away win | 23.6% |
| Over 2.5 | 51.4% |
| BTTS yes | 52.9% |
Pregame fair line — favorite Colombia (52.1%), fair total 2.73, fair spread 0.63
Projected players vs season baseline
Proj = projected for this match · Season = this season's per-game average from match data · deviation badge compares projected xG to the player's season xG/game.
Colombia — projected line vs season baseline (4-2-3-1)
| Player | Pos | Min | Proj G | Proj xG | Season xG/g | | Proj Sh | Season Sh/g | Proj Rtg | Season Rtg | Rec |
|---|
| Luis Javier Suárez | F | 82 | 0 | 0.19 | 0.32 | 41% | 2 | 2.5 | 83.8 | 66.3 | 12 |
| Luis Díaz | M | 91 | 0 | 0.33 | 0.28 | ok | 2 | 2.2 | 93.3 | 52.4 | 18 |
| James Rodríguez | M | 72 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.03 | 238% | 1 | 0.5 | 95.9 | 26.0 | 11 |
| Jhon Arias | M | 84 | 1 | 0.16 | 0.17 | ok | 2 | 1.4 | 84.8 | 41.4 | 14 |
| Gustavo Puerta | M | 80 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.05 | 58% | 1 | 1.6 | 74.6 | 40.0 | 9 |
| Jefferson Lerma | M | 85 | 0 | 0.15 | 0.02 | 525% | 1 | 0.5 | 83.8 | 48.9 | 11 |
| Johan Mojica | D | 88 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.03 | 34% | 1 | 0.4 | 84.5 | 27.0 | 10 |
| Jhon Lucumí | D | 89 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 100% | 0 | 0.1 | 82.6 | 61.3 | 9 |
| Davinson Sánchez | D | 90 | 0 | 0.14 | 0.06 | 114% | 1 | 0.8 | 88.7 | 54.6 | 9 |
| Daniel Muñoz | M | 87 | 0 | 0.36 | 0.06 | 543% | 1 | 0.4 | 88.3 | 38.4 | 15 |
| Camilo Vargas | G | 89 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | 0 | 0.0 | 88.3 | 64.4 | 9 |
| Team totals | 1 | 1.68 | | 14 | | 86.2 | |
DR Congo — projected line vs season baseline (5-3-2)
| Player | Pos | Min | Proj G | Proj xG | Season xG/g | | Proj Sh | Season Sh/g | Proj Rtg | Season Rtg | Rec |
|---|
| Ngal'ayel Mukau | M | 58 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 100% | 2 | 0.3 | 80.5 | 65.6 | 9 |
| Arthur Masuaku | D | 74 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | 0 | 0.0 | 81.9 | 49.1 | 7 |
| Steve Kapuadi | D | 89 | 0 | 0.26 | 0.05 | 461% | 1 | 0.2 | 77.5 | 31.8 | 4 |
| Axel Tuanzebe | D | 90 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | 0 | 0.0 | 79.4 | 66.1 | 7 |
| Chancel Mbemba | D | 89 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.01 | 369% | 0 | 0.2 | 88.6 | 45.0 | 9 |
| Aaron Wan-Bissaka | D | 86 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | 0 | 0.0 | 87.0 | 59.1 | 7 |
| Lionel Mpasi Nzau | G | 89 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | 0 | 0.0 | 86.0 | 39.0 | 7 |
| Samuel Moutoussamy | M | 86 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.02 | 234% | 1 | 0.6 | 89.5 | 67.0 | 8 |
| Edo Kayembe | M | 74 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.01 | 239% | 1 | 0.5 | 77.7 | 48.5 | 4 |
| Yoane Wissa | F | 74 | 1 | 0.29 | 0.21 | 39% | 2 | 0.9 | 89.2 | 40.2 | 12 |
| Cédric Bakambu | F | 74 | 0 | 0.19 | 0.03 | 565% | 2 | 0.4 | 83.7 | 32.0 | 10 |
| Team totals | 1 | 1.05 | | 9 | | 83.7 | |
Antagonist / tactical summary
Home midfield dominates with ~51% possession expected (Luis Díaz vs Ngal'ayel Mukau). Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.89, Away: 0.48. Home danger zone: CAM vs CM. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle.
Midfield — possession 51.0% / 49.0%, dominance ratio 0.58, key duel: Luis Díaz vs Ngal'ayel Mukau
James Rodríguez xG 0.07Jhon Arias xG 0.13Luis Díaz xG 0.37Yoane Wissa xG 0.20Arthur Masuaku xG 0.07Chancel Mbemba xG 0.02
Summary
Antagonist matchup analysis for Colombia vs DR Congo. Most likely scoreline: 1-1. Lambdas derived from 5 home and 5 away individual player duels.
Tactical parity between 4-2-3-1 and 5-3-2. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Home midfield dominates with ~51% possession expected (Luis Díaz vs Ngal'ayel Mukau). Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.89, Away: 0.48. Home danger zone: CAM vs CM. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle.
England vs Ghana
FIFA World Cup · 20260623 · 4-2-3-1 vs 4-4-1-1
Predicted 3-0Winner: DrawConfidence 0.91λ home/away 3.39 / 0.70Most-likely P 10.9%
Actual vs predicted: result not available yet (upcoming fixture).
Lambda decomposition (how the goal rates were built)
| Stage | England λ | Ghana λ |
|---|
| Pre-mismatch | 3.051 | 0.726 |
| Pre-calibration | 3.051 | 0.726 |
| Final λ | 3.388 | 0.703 |
competition calibration scale 1.0competition observed total goals 0.0quality gap applied Truemismatch score pressure applied Truecompetitive underdog floor applied Falsestage discount 1.0
Scoreline distribution & markets
| Top 5 scorelines | P |
|---|
| 3-0 | 10.9% |
| 2-0 | 9.6% |
| 4-0 | 9.2% |
| 3-1 | 7.6% |
| 2-1 | 6.8% |
| Home win | 86.9% |
| Draw | 8.8% |
| Away win | 4.3% |
| Over 2.5 | 77.4% |
| BTTS yes | 48.8% |
Pregame fair line — favorite England (86.9%), fair total 4.09, fair spread 2.69
Projected players vs season baseline
Proj = projected for this match · Season = this season's per-game average from match data · deviation badge compares projected xG to the player's season xG/game.
England — projected line vs season baseline (4-2-3-1)
| Player | Pos | Min | Proj G | Proj xG | Season xG/g | | Proj Sh | Season Sh/g | Proj Rtg | Season Rtg | Rec |
|---|
| Harry Kane | F | 91 | 2 | 1.08 | 0.46 | 136% | 3 | 2.6 | 97.3 | 63.5 | 17 |
| Anthony Gordon | F | 68 | 0 | 0.35 | 0.04 | 712% | 2 | 0.3 | 89.6 | 22.7 | 21 |
| Jude Bellingham | M | 78 | 1 | 0.53 | 0.18 | 197% | 2 | 1.1 | 97.8 | 57.3 | 16 |
| Noni Madueke | F | 65 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.04 | 102% | 2 | 0.6 | 87.4 | 35.1 | 22 |
| Declan Rice | M | 79 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.02 | 66% | 2 | 0.7 | 94.3 | 52.2 | 20 |
| Elliot Anderson | M | 92 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.04 | 55% | 1 | 1.0 | 87.4 | 57.3 | 18 |
| Nico O'Reilly | D | 92 | 0 | 0.31 | 0.12 | 157% | 2 | 0.7 | 79.5 | 37.8 | 15 |
| John Stones | D | 78 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 100% | 0 | 0.1 | 88.4 | 23.5 | 14 |
| Ezri Konsa | D | 92 | 0 | 0.74 | 0.07 | 917% | 2 | 0.3 | 88.6 | 52.6 | 20 |
| Reece James | D | 84 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 1073% | 1 | 0.1 | 87.3 | 28.9 | 14 |
| Jordan Pickford | G | 91 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | 0 | 0.0 | 90.2 | 42.9 | 14 |
| Team totals | 3 | 3.39 | | 17 | | 89.8 | |
Ghana — projected line vs season baseline (4-4-1-1)
| Player | Pos | Min | Proj G | Proj xG | Season xG/g | | Proj Sh | Season Sh/g | Proj Rtg | Season Rtg | Rec |
|---|
| Jordan Ayew | F | 87 | 0 | 0.06 | - | n/a | 2 | 0.0 | 80.4 | 66.5 | 4 |
| Thomas Partey | M | 27 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.07 | 36% | 1 | 0.8 | 89.3 | 54.3 | 6 |
| Antoine Semenyo | M | 86 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.06 | ok | 2 | 1.0 | 86.9 | 48.0 | 14 |
| Caleb Yirenkyi | M | 90 | 0 | 0.42 | 0.14 | 196% | 2 | 0.3 | 74.7 | 38.4 | 7 |
| Ernest Nuamah | F | 49 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 97% | 2 | 0.3 | 81.5 | 56.9 | 7 |
| Gideon Mensah | D | 89 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | 0 | 0.0 | 81.1 | 70.4 | 7 |
| Jerome Opoku | D | 86 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | 0 | 0.0 | 79.1 | 59.3 | 7 |
| Jonas Adjei Adjetey | D | 90 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.02 | 194% | 2 | 0.3 | 94.6 | 34.8 | 6 |
| Marvin Senaya | D | 74 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 100% | 0 | 0.3 | 75.9 | 58.7 | 7 |
| Benjamin Asare | G | 45 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | 0 | 0.0 | 87.1 | 54.0 | 4 |
| Elisha Owusu | M | 80 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 100% | 0 | 0.3 | 79.7 | 56.7 | 7 |
| Team totals | 0 | 0.70 | | 11 | | 82.8 | |
Antagonist / tactical summary
Home midfield dominates with ~54% possession expected (Jude Bellingham vs Antoine Semenyo). Total antagonist xG — Home: 1.15, Away: 1.21. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Right Mid vs Left Back — Wide Channel.
Midfield — possession 53.5% / 46.5%, dominance ratio 0.60, key duel: Jude Bellingham vs Antoine Semenyo
Declan Rice xG 0.04Harry Kane xG 0.80Anthony Gordon xG 0.26Ernest Nuamah xG 0.00Jordan Ayew xG 0.13Thomas Partey xG 0.07
Summary
Antagonist matchup analysis for England vs Ghana. Most likely scoreline: 3-0. Lambdas derived from 4 home and 5 away individual player duels.
Tactical parity between 4-2-3-1 and 4-4-1-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Home midfield dominates with ~54% possession expected (Jude Bellingham vs Antoine Semenyo). Total antagonist xG — Home: 1.15, Away: 1.21. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Right Mid vs Left Back — Wide Channel.
Portugal vs Uzbekistan
FIFA World Cup · 20260623 · 4-2-3-1 vs 3-4-2-1
Predicted 2-0Winner: DrawConfidence 0.85λ home/away 2.50 / 0.68Most-likely P 13.0%
Actual vs predicted: result not available yet (upcoming fixture).
Lambda decomposition (how the goal rates were built)
| Stage | Portugal λ | Uzbekistan λ |
|---|
| Pre-mismatch | 2.288 | 0.701 |
| Pre-calibration | 2.288 | 0.701 |
| Final λ | 2.500 | 0.683 |
competition calibration scale 1.0competition observed total goals 0.0quality gap applied Truemismatch score pressure applied Truecompetitive underdog floor applied Falsestage discount 1.0
Scoreline distribution & markets
| Top 5 scorelines | P |
|---|
| 2-0 | 13.0% |
| 3-0 | 10.8% |
| 1-0 | 10.4% |
| 2-1 | 8.8% |
| 3-1 | 7.4% |
| Home win | 77.0% |
| Draw | 14.9% |
| Away win | 8.1% |
| Over 2.5 | 61.6% |
| BTTS yes | 45.4% |
Pregame fair line — favorite Portugal (77.0%), fair total 3.18, fair spread 1.82
Projected players vs season baseline
Proj = projected for this match · Season = this season's per-game average from match data · deviation badge compares projected xG to the player's season xG/game.
Portugal — projected line vs season baseline (4-2-3-1)
| Player | Pos | Min | Proj G | Proj xG | Season xG/g | | Proj Sh | Season Sh/g | Proj Rtg | Season Rtg | Rec |
|---|
| Cristiano Ronaldo | F | 89 | 1 | 0.56 | 0.54 | ok | 2 | 3.2 | 91.4 | 63.4 | 9 |
| João Félix | F | 92 | 1 | 0.67 | 0.20 | 229% | 2 | 1.4 | 86.7 | 40.1 | 11 |
| Bruno Fernandes | M | 92 | 0 | 0.14 | 0.11 | ok | 2 | 1.4 | 94.8 | 51.2 | 12 |
| Francisco Conceição | F | 50 | 0 | 0.17 | 0.10 | 69% | 2 | 1.0 | 85.9 | 53.4 | 9 |
| Vitinha | M | 86 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 100% | 0 | 0.7 | 96.6 | 62.5 | 15 |
| João Cancelo | D | 83 | 0 | 0.18 | 0.02 | 735% | 0 | 0.5 | 90.4 | 48.1 | 17 |
| Renato Veiga | D | 91 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 100% | 0 | 0.2 | 83.3 | 41.4 | 12 |
| Rúben Dias | D | 88 | 0 | 0.39 | 0.01 | 3069% | 0 | 0.1 | 93.2 | 32.5 | 15 |
| Nélson Semedo | D | 27 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.01 | 837% | 0 | 0.2 | 83.5 | 53.0 | 10 |
| Diogo Costa | G | 92 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | 0 | 0.0 | 91.1 | 64.0 | 13 |
| João Neves | M | 87 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.05 | 79% | 1 | 0.8 | 93.0 | 66.1 | 15 |
| Team totals | 2 | 2.50 | | 9 | | 90.0 | |
Uzbekistan — projected line vs season baseline (3-4-2-1)
| Player | Pos | Min | Proj G | Proj xG | Season xG/g | | Proj Sh | Season Sh/g | Proj Rtg | Season Rtg | Rec |
|---|
| Bekhruz Karimov | D | 90 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 538% | 2 | 0.2 | 84.5 | 12.5 | 10 |
| Abdulla Abdullaev | M | 90 | 0 | 0.03 | - | n/a | 1 | 0.0 | 87.8 | 21.3 | 6 |
| Jakhongir Urozov | D | 31 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 131% | 0 | 0.1 | 83.4 | 34.7 | 11 |
| Abdukodir Khusanov | D | 92 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 147% | 0 | 0.3 | 83.6 | 45.5 | 10 |
| Utkir Yusupov | G | 89 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ok | 0 | 0.0 | 87.7 | 24.0 | 11 |
| Akmal Mozgovoy | M | 85 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.04 | ok | 1 | 0.4 | 88.5 | 38.7 | 12 |
| Otabek Shukurov | M | 89 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 100% | 1 | 0.7 | 88.9 | 66.0 | 3 |
| Sherzod Nasrullaev | D | 56 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 100% | 0 | 0.1 | 88.4 | 31.5 | 15 |
| Abbosbek Fayzullaev | M | 69 | 0 | 0.44 | 0.14 | 217% | 1 | 0.4 | 90.1 | 38.9 | 9 |
| Eldor Shomurodov | F | 89 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.33 | 85% | 2 | 1.5 | 80.3 | 68.0 | 6 |
| Oston Urunov | M | 58 | 0 | 0.03 | - | n/a | 2 | 0.0 | 92.6 | 31.8 | 4 |
| Team totals | 0 | 0.68 | | 11 | | 86.9 | |
Antagonist / tactical summary
Home midfield dominates with ~55% possession expected (João Neves vs Abbosbek Fayzullaev). Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.80, Away: 0.27. Home danger zone: RW vs CB. Away danger zone: Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle.
Midfield — possession 54.7% / 45.3%, dominance ratio 0.64, key duel: João Neves vs Abbosbek Fayzullaev
Bruno Fernandes xG 0.08Cristiano Ronaldo xG 0.28João Félix xG 0.34Oston Urunov xG 0.03Eldor Shomurodov xG 0.08Akmal Mozgovoy xG 0.06
Summary
Antagonist matchup analysis for Portugal vs Uzbekistan. Most likely scoreline: 2-0. Lambdas derived from 4 home and 5 away individual player duels.
Tactical parity between 4-2-3-1 and 3-4-2-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Home midfield dominates with ~55% possession expected (João Neves vs Abbosbek Fayzullaev). Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.80, Away: 0.27. Home danger zone: RW vs CB. Away danger zone: Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle.
Generated 2026-09-04 22:27:55 UTC · Soccer prediction reporting