Soccer predictions: actual data vs predicted data
Slate 20260624 · 7 match(es)
How to read this report. Each match shows the model's headline prediction, the stage-by-stage lambda (goal-rate) build, both teams' standing/form inputs, and every starter's projected line next to their real season baseline. A moderate / large deviation badge flags a projection that strays far from the player's season form — a quick way to spot when the inputs look right but a projection does not. When the real result is known an actual-vs-predicted banner appears.
All matches overview
| Match | Score | Winner | H / D / A | O2.5 | BTTS | Conf | λ H/A | Actual | Result |
|---|
| Scotland vs Brazil FIFA World Cup | 0-2 | Draw | 7.4% / 13.9% / 78.7% | 64.3% | 46.1% | 0.86 | 0.69 / 2.62 | - | pending |
| Switzerland vs Canada FIFA World Cup | 2-1 | Draw | 66.4% / 18.3% / 15.3% | 65.9% | 58.6% | 0.82 | 2.35 / 1.04 | - | pending |
| Morocco vs Haiti FIFA World Cup | 2-0 | Draw | 79.1% / 13.8% / 7.1% | 63.0% | 44.2% | 0.86 | 2.60 / 0.65 | - | pending |
| Morocco vs Haiti FIFA World Cup | 2-0 | Draw | 69.7% / 19.4% / 10.9% | 50.5% | 41.9% | 0.81 | 2.04 / 0.66 | - | pending |
| South Africa vs South Korea FIFA World Cup | 1-1 | Draw | 23.4% / 24.1% / 52.5% | 51.8% | 53.1% | 0.76 | 1.05 / 1.70 | - | pending |
| Czechia vs Mexico FIFA World Cup | 1-1 | Draw | 37.9% / 27.4% / 34.8% | 45.1% | 50.6% | 0.73 | 1.27 / 1.21 | - | pending |
| BiH vs Qatar FIFA World Cup | 1-1 | Draw | 38.3% / 29.6% / 32.1% | 36.7% | 43.6% | 0.7 | 1.14 / 1.02 | - | pending |
Match detail
Scotland vs Brazil
FIFA World Cup · 20260624 · 4-3-3 vs 4-2-3-1
Predicted 0-2Winner: DrawConfidence 0.86λ home/away 0.69 / 2.62Most-likely P 12.6%
Actual vs predicted: result not available yet (upcoming fixture).
Lambda decomposition (how the goal rates were built)
| Stage | Scotland λ | Brazil λ |
|---|
| Pre-calibration | 0.687 | 2.625 |
| Final λ | 0.687 | 2.625 |
competition calibration scale 1.0competition observed total goals 0.0quality gap applied Truemismatch score pressure applied Falsecompetitive underdog floor applied Falsestage discount 1.0
Scoreline distribution & markets
| Top 5 scorelines | P |
|---|
| 0-2 | 12.6% |
| 0-3 | 11.0% |
| 0-1 | 9.6% |
| 1-2 | 8.6% |
| 1-3 | 7.5% |
| Home win | 7.4% |
| Draw | 13.9% |
| Away win | 78.7% |
| Over 2.5 | 64.3% |
| BTTS yes | 46.1% |
Pregame fair line — favorite Brazil (78.7%), fair total 3.31, fair spread -1.94
Projected players vs season baseline
Proj = projected for this match · Season = this season's per-game average from match data · deviation badge compares projected xG to the player's season xG/game.
Scotland — projected line vs season baseline (4-3-3)
| Player | Pos | Min | Proj G | Proj xG | Season xG/g | | Proj Sh | Season Sh/g | Proj Rtg | Season Rtg | Rec |
|---|
| John McGinn | M | 82 | 0 | 0.12 | 0.09 | 44% | 2 | 0.8 | 88.1 | 42.5 | 22 |
| Che Adams | F | 65 | 0 | 0.34 | 0.09 | 263% | 2 | 0.5 | 83.5 | 22.2 | 12 |
| Scott McTominay | M | 92 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.16 | 33% | 2 | 1.3 | 91.8 | 32.1 | 13 |
| Lewis Ferguson | M | 89 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 100% | 1 | 0.5 | 85.3 | 41.5 | 15 |
| Ryan Christie | M | 44 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 329% | 2 | 0.2 | 85.5 | 19.6 | 13 |
| Andy Robertson | D | 83 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 1067% | 0 | 0.1 | 91.8 | 22.1 | 18 |
| Grant Hanley | D | 87 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | 0 | 0.0 | 78.1 | 29.3 | 12 |
| Jack Hendry | D | 89 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | 0 | 0.0 | 81.2 | 34.1 | 12 |
| Nathan Patterson | D | 52 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | 0 | 0.0 | 77.7 | 14.9 | 13 |
| Angus Gunn | G | 89 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | 0 | 0.0 | 78.9 | 18.6 | 12 |
| Ben Gannon-Doak | M | 51 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.02 | 88% | 2 | 0.4 | 87.9 | 16.4 | 16 |
| Team totals | 0 | 0.69 | | 11 | | 84.5 | |
Brazil — projected line vs season baseline (4-2-3-1)
| Player | Pos | Min | Proj G | Proj xG | Season xG/g | | Proj Sh | Season Sh/g | Proj Rtg | Season Rtg | Rec |
|---|
| Casemiro | M | 70 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.14 | 62% | 1 | 1.2 | 87.0 | 72.8 | 6 |
| Bruno Guimarães | M | 84 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.16 | 83% | 1 | 1.5 | 93.3 | 57.7 | 10 |
| Douglas Santos | D | 90 | 0 | 0.14 | 0.03 | 391% | 1 | 0.4 | 89.0 | 69.6 | 5 |
| Gabriel Magalhães | D | 90 | 0 | 0.23 | 0.04 | 474% | 0 | 0.4 | 90.4 | 59.1 | 17 |
| Marquinhos | D | 91 | 0 | 0.13 | 0.01 | 1553% | 1 | 0.2 | 94.6 | 66.5 | 14 |
| Danilo | D | 69 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.01 | 656% | 0 | 0.2 | 79.8 | 36.8 | 13 |
| Alisson | G | 90 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | 0 | 0.0 | 96.1 | 49.9 | 10 |
| Rayan | M | 61 | 0 | 0.18 | 0.10 | 76% | 2 | 0.7 | 92.8 | 33.0 | 15 |
| Lucas Paquetá | M | 63 | 0 | 0.20 | 0.13 | 58% | 3 | 1.3 | 87.3 | 39.8 | 14 |
| Matheus Cunha | F | 45 | 1 | 1.10 | 0.19 | 487% | 2 | 1.8 | 91.0 | 47.2 | 11 |
| Vinícius Júnior | F | 88 | 1 | 0.31 | 0.55 | 44% | 3 | 2.6 | 94.9 | 53.7 | 17 |
| Team totals | 2 | 2.62 | | 16 | | 90.6 | |
Antagonist / tactical summary
Midfield is evenly contested — Scott McTominay vs Bruno Guimarães will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.81, Away: 1.41. Home danger zone: Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle. Away danger zone: Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle.
Midfield — possession 48.3% / 51.7%, dominance ratio 0.46, key duel: Scott McTominay vs Bruno Guimarães
Che Adams xG 0.48Ben Gannon-Doak xG 0.06Ryan Christie xG 0.02Rayan xG 0.18Matheus Cunha xG 0.80Lucas Paquetá xG 0.17
Summary
Antagonist matchup analysis for Scotland vs Brazil. Most likely scoreline: 0-2. Lambdas derived from 5 home and 5 away individual player duels.
Tactical parity between 4-3-3 and 4-2-3-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Midfield is evenly contested — Scott McTominay vs Bruno Guimarães will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.81, Away: 1.41. Home danger zone: Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle. Away danger zone: Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle.
Switzerland vs Canada
FIFA World Cup · 20260624 · 4-2-3-1 vs 4-4-2
Predicted 2-1Winner: DrawConfidence 0.82λ home/away 2.35 / 1.04Most-likely P 9.7%
Actual vs predicted: result not available yet (upcoming fixture).
Lambda decomposition (how the goal rates were built)
| Stage | Switzerland λ | Canada λ |
|---|
| Pre-calibration | 2.348 | 1.044 |
| Final λ | 2.348 | 1.044 |
competition calibration scale 1.0competition observed total goals 0.0quality gap applied Truemismatch score pressure applied Falsecompetitive underdog floor applied Falsestage discount 1.0
Scoreline distribution & markets
| Top 5 scorelines | P |
|---|
| 2-1 | 9.7% |
| 2-0 | 9.3% |
| 1-1 | 8.2% |
| 1-0 | 7.9% |
| 3-1 | 7.6% |
| Home win | 66.4% |
| Draw | 18.3% |
| Away win | 15.3% |
| Over 2.5 | 65.9% |
| BTTS yes | 58.6% |
Pregame fair line — favorite Switzerland (66.4%), fair total 3.39, fair spread 1.30
Projected players vs season baseline
Proj = projected for this match · Season = this season's per-game average from match data · deviation badge compares projected xG to the player's season xG/game.
Switzerland — projected line vs season baseline (4-2-3-1)
| Player | Pos | Min | Proj G | Proj xG | Season xG/g | | Proj Sh | Season Sh/g | Proj Rtg | Season Rtg | Rec |
|---|
| Breel Embolo | F | 83 | 1 | 0.46 | 0.27 | 69% | 2 | 1.0 | 84.1 | 32.7 | 15 |
| Rubén Vargas | M | 47 | 0 | 0.32 | 0.07 | 361% | 2 | 0.7 | 82.8 | 31.8 | 18 |
| Johan Manzambi | M | 39 | 1 | 0.30 | 0.09 | 218% | 1 | 1.1 | 74.3 | 41.6 | 25 |
| Granit Xhaka | M | 89 | 0 | 0.35 | 0.05 | 577% | 2 | 0.3 | 92.6 | 29.7 | 18 |
| Remo Freuler | M | 87 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.03 | 67% | 0 | 0.3 | 87.9 | 37.9 | 18 |
| Ricardo Rodríguez | D | 88 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 100% | 0 | 0.1 | 80.9 | 33.8 | 18 |
| Manuel Akanji | D | 91 | 0 | 0.30 | 0.02 | 1459% | 0 | 0.1 | 89.5 | 21.1 | 14 |
| Nico Elvedi | D | 90 | 0 | 0.30 | 0.03 | 949% | 1 | 0.2 | 84.0 | 26.9 | 16 |
| Silvan Widmer | M | 82 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | 0 | 0.0 | 78.7 | 17.8 | 19 |
| Gregor Kobel | G | 92 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | 0 | 0.0 | 92.8 | 36.6 | 16 |
| Dan Ndoye | M | 72 | 0 | 0.19 | 0.03 | 589% | 2 | 0.6 | 85.7 | 18.2 | 23 |
| Team totals | 2 | 2.35 | | 10 | | 84.8 | |
Canada — projected line vs season baseline (4-4-2)
| Player | Pos | Min | Proj G | Proj xG | Season xG/g | | Proj Sh | Season Sh/g | Proj Rtg | Season Rtg | Rec |
|---|
| Tajon Buchanan | M | 70 | 0 | 0.19 | 0.07 | 157% | 2 | 0.6 | 81.0 | 43.2 | 12 |
| Richie Laryea | D | 87 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.04 | 70% | 1 | 0.2 | 80.2 | 45.6 | 8 |
| Derek Cornelius | D | 68 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.15 | 84% | 1 | 1.0 | 80.6 | 52.0 | 5 |
| Luc De Fougerolles | D | 77 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 100% | 0 | 0.4 | 64.9 | 67.4 | 7 |
| Alistair Johnston | D | 88 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.05 | 51% | 1 | 0.9 | 85.6 | 68.9 | 9 |
| Maxime Crépeau | G | 89 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | 0 | 0.0 | 75.7 | 52.6 | 9 |
| Stephen Eustaquio | M | 88 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.02 | 66% | 1 | 0.6 | 84.6 | 57.4 | 9 |
| Nathan-Dylan Saliba | M | 42 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.06 | ok | 1 | 0.8 | 76.1 | 54.9 | 8 |
| Ali Ahmed | M | 50 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.05 | ok | 2 | 0.4 | 74.9 | 55.4 | 5 |
| Jonathan David | F | 69 | 1 | 0.29 | 0.38 | ok | 2 | 2.2 | 89.4 | 58.2 | 8 |
| Cyle Larin | F | 57 | 0 | 0.31 | 0.38 | ok | 4 | 1.8 | 84.0 | 54.0 | 5 |
| Team totals | 1 | 1.04 | | 15 | | 79.7 | |
Antagonist / tactical summary
Midfield is evenly contested — Johan Manzambi vs Tajon Buchanan will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 1.66, Away: 1.32. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle.
Midfield — possession 52.1% / 47.9%, dominance ratio 0.55, key duel: Johan Manzambi vs Tajon Buchanan
Dan Ndoye xG 0.22Granit Xhaka xG 0.38Rubén Vargas xG 0.30Jonathan David xG 0.68Tajon Buchanan xG 0.51Ali Ahmed xG 0.12
Summary
Antagonist matchup analysis for Switzerland vs Canada. Most likely scoreline: 2-1. Lambdas derived from 5 home and 4 away individual player duels.
4-2-3-1 creates structural superiority against 4-4-2. Home team should exploit wider spaces and numerical advantages in transition. Midfield is evenly contested — Johan Manzambi vs Tajon Buchanan will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 1.66, Away: 1.32. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle.
Morocco vs Haiti
FIFA World Cup · 20260624 · 4-2-3-1 vs 4-4-2
Predicted 2-0Winner: DrawConfidence 0.86λ home/away 2.60 / 0.65Most-likely P 13.1%
Actual vs predicted: result not available yet (upcoming fixture).
Lambda decomposition (how the goal rates were built)
| Stage | Morocco λ | Haiti λ |
|---|
| Pre-mismatch | 2.389 | 0.663 |
| Pre-calibration | 2.389 | 0.663 |
| Final λ | 2.597 | 0.650 |
competition calibration scale 1.0competition observed total goals 0.0quality gap applied Truemismatch score pressure applied Truecompetitive underdog floor applied Falsestage discount 1.0
Scoreline distribution & markets
| Top 5 scorelines | P |
|---|
| 2-0 | 13.1% |
| 3-0 | 11.4% |
| 1-0 | 10.1% |
| 2-1 | 8.5% |
| 3-1 | 7.4% |
| Home win | 79.1% |
| Draw | 13.8% |
| Away win | 7.1% |
| Over 2.5 | 63.0% |
| BTTS yes | 44.2% |
Pregame fair line — favorite Morocco (79.1%), fair total 3.25, fair spread 1.95
Projected players vs season baseline
Proj = projected for this match · Season = this season's per-game average from match data · deviation badge compares projected xG to the player's season xG/game.
Morocco — projected line vs season baseline (4-2-3-1)
| Player | Pos | Min | Proj G | Proj xG | Season xG/g | | Proj Sh | Season Sh/g | Proj Rtg | Season Rtg | Rec |
|---|
| Ismael Saibari | M | 67 | 1 | 0.61 | 0.23 | 160% | 2 | 1.3 | 86.9 | 40.9 | 9 |
| Bilal El Khannouss | M | 79 | 0 | 0.13 | 0.05 | 164% | 2 | 1.2 | 82.9 | 51.7 | 12 |
| Brahim Díaz | M | 70 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.09 | ok | 2 | 0.8 | 86.1 | 46.6 | 18 |
| Neil El Aynaoui | M | 85 | 0 | 0.13 | 0.05 | 174% | 1 | 0.7 | 84.1 | 62.1 | 10 |
| Ayyoub Bouaddi | M | 86 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.02 | 34% | 1 | 0.3 | 81.9 | 55.2 | 11 |
| Noussair Mazraoui | D | 85 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | 0 | 0.0 | 87.2 | 44.9 | 11 |
| Chadi Riad | D | 89 | 0 | 0.15 | 0.02 | 683% | 0 | 0.2 | 78.9 | 25.5 | 13 |
| Issa Diop | D | 87 | 1 | 1.03 | 0.07 | 1489% | 0 | 0.1 | 82.7 | 39.8 | 12 |
| Achraf Hakimi | D | 92 | 0 | 0.32 | 0.18 | 76% | 2 | 1.3 | 96.3 | 63.7 | 11 |
| Yassine Bounou | G | 89 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | 0 | 0.0 | 91.7 | 62.2 | 10 |
| Azzedine Ounahi | M | 80 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.09 | 32% | 2 | 1.6 | 82.8 | 65.2 | 9 |
| Team totals | 2 | 2.60 | | 12 | | 85.6 | |
Haiti — projected line vs season baseline (4-4-2)
| Player | Pos | Min | Proj G | Proj xG | Season xG/g | | Proj Sh | Season Sh/g | Proj Rtg | Season Rtg | Rec |
|---|
| Jean-Ricner Bellegarde | M | 76 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.06 | ok | 2 | 1.2 | 82.0 | 68.0 | 5 |
| Louicius Don Deedson | F | 39 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 61% | 1 | 0.3 | 71.3 | 31.8 | 6 |
| Martin Expérience | D | 89 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 81% | 0 | 0.3 | 68.6 | 62.7 | 3 |
| Hannes Delcroix | D | 89 | 0 | 0.14 | 0.06 | 143% | 0 | 0.6 | 77.6 | 69.2 | 8 |
| Ricardo Adé | D | 88 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.01 | 330% | 1 | 0.2 | 84.8 | 32.1 | 21 |
| Carlens Arcus | D | 60 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | 0 | 0.0 | 77.2 | 52.5 | 6 |
| Johny Placide | G | 89 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | 0 | 0.0 | 75.6 | 68.0 | 3 |
| Danley Jean Jacques | M | 90 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | 0 | 0.0 | 76.7 | 47.9 | 7 |
| Ruben Providence | M | 78 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.02 | 110% | 1 | 0.6 | 87.6 | 56.7 | 7 |
| Wilson Isidor | F | 55 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.05 | 48% | 2 | 1.0 | 78.5 | 43.1 | 8 |
| Frantzdy Pierrot | F | 62 | 0 | 0.29 | 0.12 | 151% | 1 | 0.7 | 78.6 | 43.5 | 6 |
| Team totals | 0 | 0.65 | | 8 | | 78.0 | |
Antagonist / tactical summary
Home midfield dominates with ~53% possession expected (Ayyoub Bouaddi vs Jean-Ricner Bellegarde). Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.96, Away: 0.22. Home danger zone: Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle. Away danger zone: Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel.
Midfield — possession 53.1% / 46.9%, dominance ratio 0.62, key duel: Ayyoub Bouaddi vs Jean-Ricner Bellegarde
Ismael Saibari xG 0.62Bilal El Khannouss xG 0.13Brahim Díaz xG 0.07Wilson Isidor xG 0.04Ruben Providence xG 0.05Louicius Don Deedson xG 0.03
Summary
Antagonist matchup analysis for Morocco vs Haiti. Most likely scoreline: 2-0. Lambdas derived from 5 home and 4 away individual player duels.
4-2-3-1 creates structural superiority against 4-4-2. Home team should exploit wider spaces and numerical advantages in transition. Home midfield dominates with ~53% possession expected (Ayyoub Bouaddi vs Jean-Ricner Bellegarde). Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.96, Away: 0.22. Home danger zone: Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle. Away danger zone: Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel.
Morocco vs Haiti
FIFA World Cup · 20260624 · 4-2-3-1 vs 4-3-3
Predicted 2-0Winner: DrawConfidence 0.81λ home/away 2.04 / 0.66Most-likely P 14.0%
Actual vs predicted: result not available yet (upcoming fixture).
Lambda decomposition (how the goal rates were built)
| Stage | Morocco λ | Haiti λ |
|---|
| Pre-mismatch | 1.878 | 0.672 |
| Pre-calibration | 1.878 | 0.672 |
| Final λ | 2.035 | 0.658 |
competition calibration scale 1.0competition observed total goals 0.0quality gap applied Truemismatch score pressure applied Truecompetitive underdog floor applied Falsestage discount 1.0
Scoreline distribution & markets
| Top 5 scorelines | P |
|---|
| 2-0 | 14.0% |
| 1-0 | 13.8% |
| 3-0 | 9.5% |
| 2-1 | 9.2% |
| 1-1 | 9.1% |
| Home win | 69.7% |
| Draw | 19.4% |
| Away win | 10.9% |
| Over 2.5 | 50.5% |
| BTTS yes | 41.9% |
Pregame fair line — favorite Morocco (69.7%), fair total 2.69, fair spread 1.38
Projected players vs season baseline
Proj = projected for this match · Season = this season's per-game average from match data · deviation badge compares projected xG to the player's season xG/game.
Morocco — projected line vs season baseline (4-2-3-1)
| Player | Pos | Min | Proj G | Proj xG | Season xG/g | | Proj Sh | Season Sh/g | Proj Rtg | Season Rtg | Rec |
|---|
| Bono | G | 90 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | 0 | 0.0 | 91.7 | 62.2 | 10 |
| Achraf Hakimi | D | 91 | 0 | 0.28 | 0.18 | 50% | 2 | 1.3 | 96.3 | 63.7 | 11 |
| Noussair Mazraoui | D | 88 | 0 | 0.01 | - | n/a | 0 | 0.0 | 87.2 | 44.9 | 11 |
| Zakaria El Ouahdi | D | 90 | 0 | 0.35 | 0.09 | 297% | 1 | 1.6 | 83.1 | 39.7 | 11 |
| Nayef Aguerd | D | 90 | 0 | 0.02 | - | n/a | | - | 87.9 | - | 5 |
| Ayyoub Bouaddi | M | 86 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.02 | ok | 1 | 0.3 | 81.9 | 55.2 | 11 |
| Brahim Díaz | M | 79 | 1 | 0.34 | 0.09 | 285% | 3 | 0.8 | 86.1 | 46.6 | 18 |
| Ismael Saibari | M | 77 | 1 | 0.58 | 0.23 | 149% | 2 | 1.3 | 86.8 | 40.9 | 9 |
| Abdessamad Ezzalzouli | M | 87 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.15 | 46% | 2 | 0.9 | 84.2 | 34.1 | 15 |
| Bilal El Khannouss | M | 84 | 0 | 0.14 | 0.05 | 186% | 2 | 1.2 | 82.9 | 51.7 | 12 |
| Ayoube Amaimouni Echghouyab | F | 11 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.03 | 298% | 2 | 0.2 | 90.6 | 29.4 | 9 |
| Team totals | 2 | 2.04 | | 15 | | 87.2 | |
Haiti — projected line vs season baseline (4-3-3)
| Player | Pos | Min | Proj G | Proj xG | Season xG/g | | Proj Sh | Season Sh/g | Proj Rtg | Season Rtg | Rec |
|---|
| Johny Placide | G | 89 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | 0 | 0.0 | 75.6 | 68.0 | 3 |
| Jean-Kévin Duverne | D | 89 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.22 | 78% | 0 | 0.6 | 77.1 | 57.3 | 7 |
| Hannes Delcroix | D | 89 | 0 | 0.12 | 0.06 | 103% | 0 | 0.6 | 77.6 | 69.2 | 8 |
| Carlens Arcus | D | 73 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | 0 | 0.0 | 77.2 | 52.5 | 6 |
| Wilguens Paugain | D | 90 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | 0 | 0.0 | 61.6 | - | 4 |
| Jean-Ricner Bellegarde | M | 76 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.06 | ok | 1 | 1.2 | 82.0 | 68.0 | 5 |
| Danley Jean Jacques | M | 90 | 0 | 0.03 | - | n/a | 1 | 0.0 | 76.7 | 47.9 | 7 |
| Josué Casimir | M | 50 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ok | 0 | 0.3 | 76.9 | 54.6 | 7 |
| Wilson Isidor | F | 71 | 0 | 0.14 | 0.05 | 169% | 2 | 1.0 | 78.5 | 43.1 | 8 |
| Frantzdy Pierrot | F | 75 | 0 | 0.18 | 0.12 | 51% | 2 | 0.7 | 78.6 | 43.5 | 6 |
| Louicius Don Deedson | F | 62 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.01 | 478% | 1 | 0.3 | 71.3 | 31.8 | 6 |
| Team totals | 0 | 0.66 | | 7 | | 75.7 | |
Antagonist / tactical summary
Home midfield dominates with ~53% possession expected (Ayyoub Bouaddi vs Jean-Ricner Bellegarde). Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.79, Away: 0.87. Home danger zone: Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle.
Midfield — possession 53.3% / 46.7%, dominance ratio 0.62, key duel: Ayyoub Bouaddi vs Jean-Ricner Bellegarde
Ismael Saibari xG 0.43Abdessamad Ezzalzouli xG 0.06Brahim Díaz xG 0.24Wilson Isidor xG 0.28Louicius Don Deedson xG 0.11Frantzdy Pierrot xG 0.35
Summary
Antagonist matchup analysis for Morocco vs Haiti. Most likely scoreline: 2-0. Lambdas derived from 5 home and 5 away individual player duels.
Tactical parity between 4-2-3-1 and 4-3-3. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Home midfield dominates with ~53% possession expected (Ayyoub Bouaddi vs Jean-Ricner Bellegarde). Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.79, Away: 0.87. Home danger zone: Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle.
South Africa vs South Korea
FIFA World Cup · 20260624 · 4-3-3 vs 3-4-2-1
Predicted 1-1Winner: DrawConfidence 0.76λ home/away 1.05 / 1.70Most-likely P 11.5%
Actual vs predicted: result not available yet (upcoming fixture).
Lambda decomposition (how the goal rates were built)
| Stage | South Africa λ | South Korea λ |
|---|
| Pre-competitive-floor | 0.741 | 1.697 |
| Pre-calibration | 0.741 | 1.697 |
| Final λ | 1.050 | 1.697 |
competition calibration scale 1.0competition observed total goals 0.0quality gap applied Truemismatch score pressure applied Falsecompetitive underdog floor applied Truestage discount 1.0
Scoreline distribution & markets
| Top 5 scorelines | P |
|---|
| 1-1 | 11.5% |
| 0-1 | 10.8% |
| 1-2 | 9.7% |
| 0-2 | 9.2% |
| 1-0 | 6.7% |
| Home win | 23.4% |
| Draw | 24.1% |
| Away win | 52.5% |
| Over 2.5 | 51.8% |
| BTTS yes | 53.1% |
Pregame fair line — favorite South Korea (52.5%), fair total 2.75, fair spread -0.65
Projected players vs season baseline
Proj = projected for this match · Season = this season's per-game average from match data · deviation badge compares projected xG to the player's season xG/game.
South Africa — projected line vs season baseline (4-3-3)
| Player | Pos | Min | Proj G | Proj xG | Season xG/g | | Proj Sh | Season Sh/g | Proj Rtg | Season Rtg | Rec |
|---|
| Oswin Appollis | M | 62 | 1 | 0.09 | 0.16 | 42% | 1 | 1.8 | 87.9 | 53.6 | 9 |
| Evidence Makgopa | F | 23 | 0 | 0.15 | 0.16 | ok | 2 | 1.0 | 91.6 | 66.3 | 7 |
| Thapelo Maseko | M | 86 | 0 | 0.20 | 0.09 | 124% | 2 | 1.3 | 87.8 | 35.0 | 6 |
| Jayden Adams | M | 54 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | 2 | 0.0 | 88.5 | 51.2 | 5 |
| Relebohile Mofokeng | M | 57 | 0 | 0.13 | 0.08 | 74% | 1 | 1.8 | 88.5 | 45.7 | 9 |
| Thalente Mbatha | M | 65 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.04 | ok | 1 | 1.4 | 87.7 | 69.6 | 7 |
| Aubrey Modiba | D | 83 | 0 | 0.13 | 0.07 | 84% | 2 | 1.7 | 88.5 | 68.3 | 7 |
| Mbekezeli Mbokazi | D | 88 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.01 | 619% | 2 | 0.4 | 89.7 | 46.9 | 9 |
| Ime Okon | D | 89 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 100% | 0 | 0.2 | 73.7 | 68.0 | 4 |
| Khuliso Mudau | D | 89 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | 0 | 0.0 | 91.5 | 66.7 | 6 |
| Ronwen Williams | G | 89 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | 0 | 0.0 | 88.2 | 67.4 | 7 |
| Team totals | 1 | 1.05 | | 13 | | 87.6 | |
South Korea — projected line vs season baseline (3-4-2-1)
| Player | Pos | Min | Proj G | Proj xG | Season xG/g | | Proj Sh | Season Sh/g | Proj Rtg | Season Rtg | Rec |
|---|
| Son Heung-min | F | 66 | 1 | 0.72 | 0.31 | 134% | 2 | 2.2 | 91.9 | 42.0 | 8 |
| Kang-in Lee | M | 70 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 36% | 2 | 0.4 | 86.4 | 34.9 | 18 |
| Young-woo Seol | D | 83 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.01 | 355% | 1 | 0.4 | 88.6 | 38.9 | 7 |
| Seung Ho Paik | M | 80 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | 1 | 0.0 | 78.7 | 66.7 | 3 |
| Hwang In-beom | M | 87 | 0 | 0.18 | 0.13 | 35% | 1 | 1.3 | 84.5 | 74.7 | 3 |
| Kim Moon-hwan | D | 72 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | 0 | 0.0 | 75.6 | 27.5 | 17 |
| Gi-Hyuk Lee | D | 89 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | 0 | 0.0 | 89.9 | 49.8 | 13 |
| Kim Min-jae | D | 85 | 0 | 0.27 | 0.05 | 421% | 0 | 0.4 | 89.1 | 45.8 | 11 |
| Han-Beom Lee | D | 84 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.03 | 99% | 1 | 0.5 | 75.7 | 67.5 | 4 |
| Kim Seung-gyu | G | 89 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | 0 | 0.0 | 88.9 | 50.8 | 4 |
| Jae-sung Lee | M | 48 | 0 | 0.31 | 0.06 | 383% | 1 | 0.3 | 83.6 | 37.9 | 7 |
| Team totals | 1 | 1.70 | | 9 | | 84.8 | |
Antagonist / tactical summary
Midfield is evenly contested — Relebohile Mofokeng vs Kang-in Lee will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.46, Away: 1.05. Home danger zone: RW vs CB. Away danger zone: Shadow Striker vs CB + Mid Cover — Layered Defense.
Midfield — possession 49.4% / 50.6%, dominance ratio 0.47, key duel: Relebohile Mofokeng vs Kang-in Lee
Oswin Appollis xG 0.05Relebohile Mofokeng xG 0.06Evidence Makgopa xG 0.09Young-woo Seol xG 0.04Son Heung-min xG 0.73Seung Ho Paik xG 0.08
Summary
Antagonist matchup analysis for South Africa vs South Korea. Most likely scoreline: 1-1. Lambdas derived from 5 home and 5 away individual player duels.
Tactical parity between 4-3-3 and 3-4-2-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Midfield is evenly contested — Relebohile Mofokeng vs Kang-in Lee will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.46, Away: 1.05. Home danger zone: RW vs CB. Away danger zone: Shadow Striker vs CB + Mid Cover — Layered Defense.
Czechia vs Mexico
FIFA World Cup · 20260624 · 3-5-2 vs 4-3-3
Predicted 1-1Winner: DrawConfidence 0.73λ home/away 1.27 / 1.21Most-likely P 13.0%
Actual vs predicted: result not available yet (upcoming fixture).
Lambda decomposition (how the goal rates were built)
| Stage | Czechia λ | Mexico λ |
|---|
| Pre-competitive-floor | 1.272 | 1.207 |
| Pre-calibration | 1.272 | 1.207 |
| Final λ | 1.272 | 1.207 |
competition calibration scale 1.0competition observed total goals 0.0quality gap applied Falsemismatch score pressure applied Falsecompetitive underdog floor applied Falsestage discount 1.0
Scoreline distribution & markets
| Top 5 scorelines | P |
|---|
| 1-1 | 13.0% |
| 1-0 | 10.5% |
| 0-1 | 10.0% |
| 0-0 | 8.5% |
| 2-1 | 8.2% |
| Home win | 37.9% |
| Draw | 27.4% |
| Away win | 34.8% |
| Over 2.5 | 45.1% |
| BTTS yes | 50.6% |
Pregame fair line — favorite Czechia (37.9%), fair total 2.48, fair spread 0.07
Projected players vs season baseline
Proj = projected for this match · Season = this season's per-game average from match data · deviation badge compares projected xG to the player's season xG/game.
Czechia — projected line vs season baseline (3-5-2)
| Player | Pos | Min | Proj G | Proj xG | Season xG/g | | Proj Sh | Season Sh/g | Proj Rtg | Season Rtg | Rec |
|---|
| Patrik Schick | F | 77 | 1 | 0.10 | 0.52 | 80% | 2 | 1.9 | 91.5 | 59.6 | 8 |
| Adam Hložek | F | 41 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.10 | 31% | 1 | 0.8 | 83.6 | 44.0 | 6 |
| Lukáš Červ | M | 76 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.05 | 58% | 1 | 1.4 | 81.0 | 56.6 | 5 |
| Vladimír Darida | M | 62 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.21 | 57% | 1 | 1.2 | 85.9 | 48.8 | 6 |
| Michal Sadílek | M | 50 | 0 | 0.14 | 0.09 | 54% | 2 | 1.2 | 83.0 | 69.7 | 6 |
| Vladimír Coufal | D | 89 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.01 | 122% | 0 | 0.3 | 79.7 | 45.8 | 9 |
| Ladislav Krejčí | D | 89 | 0 | 0.15 | 0.09 | 71% | 2 | 1.2 | 85.3 | 57.2 | 6 |
| Robin Hranáč | D | 85 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | 0 | 0.0 | 77.5 | 51.4 | 5 |
| Tomáš Holeš | D | 88 | 0 | 0.46 | 0.14 | 236% | 0 | 0.4 | 82.4 | 40.0 | 5 |
| Matěj Kovář | G | 90 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | 0 | 0.0 | 81.9 | 72.6 | 5 |
| Alexandr Sojka | M | 72 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.08 | ok | 0 | 1.3 | 88.9 | 70.9 | 7 |
| Team totals | 1 | 1.27 | | 9 | | 83.7 | |
Mexico — projected line vs season baseline (4-3-3)
| Player | Pos | Min | Proj G | Proj xG | Season xG/g | | Proj Sh | Season Sh/g | Proj Rtg | Season Rtg | Rec |
|---|
| Gilberto Mora | M | 33 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.17 | 75% | 2 | 1.6 | 89.6 | 57.6 | 7 |
| Obed Vargas | M | 33 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 185% | 2 | 0.2 | 75.8 | 24.4 | 17 |
| Mateo Chávez | D | 80 | 0 | 0.32 | 0.10 | 226% | 0 | 0.2 | 78.4 | 19.9 | 8 |
| Johan Vásquez | D | 90 | 0 | 0.12 | 0.04 | 194% | 0 | 0.2 | 82.0 | 45.0 | 8 |
| César Montes | D | 87 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.02 | 459% | 0 | 0.2 | 93.8 | 56.4 | 5 |
| Israel Reyes | D | 54 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.02 | ok | 1 | 0.6 | 85.9 | 59.6 | 7 |
| Guillermo Ochoa | G | 90 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | 0 | 0.0 | 88.7 | 13.0 | 5 |
| Álvaro Fidalgo | M | 60 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 100% | 0 | 0.3 | 87.0 | 36.8 | 15 |
| César Huerta | M | 18 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 100% | 2 | 0.2 | 79.5 | 31.1 | 8 |
| Raúl Jiménez | F | 69 | 1 | 0.45 | 0.42 | ok | 2 | 3.0 | 83.8 | 59.3 | 7 |
| Orbelín Pineda | M | 31 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.03 | 31% | 0 | 0.8 | 83.4 | 44.7 | 9 |
| Team totals | 1 | 1.21 | | 10 | | 84.4 | |
Antagonist / tactical summary
Midfield is evenly contested — Michal Sadílek vs Gilberto Mora will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.93, Away: 0.77. Home danger zone: RWB vs LW + LB. Away danger zone: Left Wing vs Right Wingback — Compact Flank.
Midfield — possession 48.8% / 51.2%, dominance ratio 0.47, key duel: Michal Sadílek vs Gilberto Mora
Patrik Schick xG 0.15Vladimír Darida xG 0.09Tomáš Holeš xG 0.46Raúl Jiménez xG 0.50César Huerta xG 0.21Obed Vargas xG 0.01
Summary
Antagonist matchup analysis for Czechia vs Mexico. Most likely scoreline: 1-1. Lambdas derived from 5 home and 4 away individual player duels.
Tactical parity between 3-5-2 and 4-3-3. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Midfield is evenly contested — Michal Sadílek vs Gilberto Mora will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.93, Away: 0.77. Home danger zone: RWB vs LW + LB. Away danger zone: Left Wing vs Right Wingback — Compact Flank.
BiH vs Qatar
FIFA World Cup · 20260624 · 4-4-2 vs 4-3-3
Predicted 1-1Winner: DrawConfidence 0.7λ home/away 1.14 / 1.02Most-likely P 13.5%
Actual vs predicted: result not available yet (upcoming fixture).
Lambda decomposition (how the goal rates were built)
| Stage | BiH λ | Qatar λ |
|---|
| Pre-competitive-floor | 1.141 | 0.676 |
| Pre-calibration | 1.141 | 0.676 |
| Final λ | 1.141 | 1.020 |
competition calibration scale 1.0competition observed total goals 0.0quality gap applied Truemismatch score pressure applied Falsecompetitive underdog floor applied Truestage discount 1.0
Scoreline distribution & markets
| Top 5 scorelines | P |
|---|
| 1-1 | 13.5% |
| 1-0 | 13.0% |
| 0-0 | 11.6% |
| 0-1 | 11.6% |
| 2-1 | 7.6% |
| Home win | 38.3% |
| Draw | 29.6% |
| Away win | 32.1% |
| Over 2.5 | 36.7% |
| BTTS yes | 43.6% |
Pregame fair line — favorite BiH (38.3%), fair total 2.16, fair spread 0.12
Projected players vs season baseline
Proj = projected for this match · Season = this season's per-game average from match data · deviation badge compares projected xG to the player's season xG/game.
BiH — projected line vs season baseline (4-4-2)
| Player | Pos | Min | Proj G | Proj xG | Season xG/g | | Proj Sh | Season Sh/g | Proj Rtg | Season Rtg | Rec |
|---|
| Edin Džeko | F | 67 | 0 | 0.17 | 0.05 | 265% | 2 | 0.6 | 87.6 | 39.4 | 5 |
| Ermedin Demirović | F | 86 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.19 | 45% | 1 | 1.4 | 86.6 | 58.8 | 10 |
| Kerim Alajbegović | M | 61 | 1 | 0.28 | 0.11 | 158% | 2 | 1.9 | 67.5 | 56.6 | 11 |
| Benjamin Tahirović | M | 77 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 774% | 1 | 0.2 | 73.3 | 52.2 | 5 |
| Ivan Šunjić | M | 54 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 100% | 0 | 0.2 | 84.4 | 51.8 | 5 |
| Amar Memić | M | 82 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.04 | 116% | 2 | 1.1 | 78.1 | 55.3 | 7 |
| Sead Kolašinac | D | 80 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | 0 | 0.0 | 85.6 | 38.5 | 10 |
| Nikola Katić | D | 89 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 100% | 0 | 0.4 | 76.1 | 54.8 | 5 |
| Dennis Hadžikadunić | D | 89 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | 0 | 0.0 | 86.6 | 14.2 | 5 |
| Amar Dedić | D | 87 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 1848% | 0 | 0.2 | 79.3 | 37.0 | 12 |
| Nikola Vasilj | G | 90 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | 0 | 0.0 | 83.0 | 56.8 | 8 |
| Team totals | 1 | 1.14 | | 8 | | 80.7 | |
Qatar — projected line vs season baseline (4-3-3)
| Player | Pos | Min | Proj G | Proj xG | Season xG/g | | Proj Sh | Season Sh/g | Proj Rtg | Season Rtg | Rec |
|---|
| Akram Afif | M | 78 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 98% | 2 | 1.5 | 94.3 | 55.0 | 11 |
| Yusuf Abdurisag | F | 55 | 0 | 0.33 | - | n/a | 2 | 0.9 | 86.7 | 60.6 | 7 |
| Almoez Ali | M | 90 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.01 | 1096% | 2 | 0.4 | 88.7 | 29.9 | 9 |
| Karim Boudiaf | M | 30 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.01 | 676% | 2 | 0.3 | 87.0 | 46.0 | 3 |
| Edmilson Junior | M | 73 | 1 | 0.38 | 0.06 | 575% | 1 | 0.8 | 88.4 | 42.1 | 10 |
| Jassem Gaber Abdulsallam | M | 56 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | 1 | 0.1 | 86.5 | 66.9 | 7 |
| Sultan Al-Brake | D | 56 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | 0 | 0.2 | 87.4 | 53.0 | 6 |
| Boualem Khoukhi | D | 89 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.01 | 954% | 1 | 0.6 | 85.6 | 66.1 | 8 |
| Pedro Miguel | D | 87 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 100% | 0 | 1.2 | 87.0 | 67.2 | 8 |
| Ayoub Al Oui | D | 77 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | 0 | 0.2 | 87.8 | 48.5 | 6 |
| Mahmud Abunada | G | 89 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | 0 | 0.0 | 86.7 | 68.9 | 7 |
| Team totals | 1 | 1.02 | | 11 | | 87.8 | |
Antagonist / tactical summary
Midfield is evenly contested — Kerim Alajbegović vs Akram Afif will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.25, Away: 0.38. Home danger zone: Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel. Away danger zone: Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle.
Midfield — possession 50.9% / 49.1%, dominance ratio 0.52, key duel: Kerim Alajbegović vs Akram Afif
Edin Džeko xG 0.07Kerim Alajbegović xG 0.14Amar Memić xG 0.04Yusuf Abdurisag xG 0.17Karim Boudiaf xG 0.03Almoez Ali xG 0.03
Summary
Antagonist matchup analysis for BiH vs Qatar. Most likely scoreline: 1-1. Lambdas derived from 4 home and 5 away individual player duels.
Tactical parity between 4-4-2 and 4-3-3. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Midfield is evenly contested — Kerim Alajbegović vs Akram Afif will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.25, Away: 0.38. Home danger zone: Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel. Away danger zone: Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle.
Generated 2026-09-04 22:27:55 UTC · Soccer prediction reporting