Soccer predictions: actual data vs predicted data
Slate 20260626 · 6 match(es)
How to read this report. Each match shows the model's headline prediction, the stage-by-stage lambda (goal-rate) build, both teams' standing/form inputs, and every starter's projected line next to their real season baseline. A moderate / large deviation badge flags a projection that strays far from the player's season form — a quick way to spot when the inputs look right but a projection does not. When the real result is known an actual-vs-predicted banner appears.
All matches overview
| Match | Score | Winner | H / D / A | O2.5 | BTTS | Conf | λ H/A | Actual | Result |
|---|
| New Zealand vs Belgium FIFA World Cup | 1-1 | Draw | 25.8% / 25.7% / 48.5% | 47.9% | 51.1% | 0.74 | 1.05 / 1.54 | - | pending |
| Uruguay vs Spain FIFA World Cup | 0-2 | Draw | 9.1% / 15.8% / 75.1% | 61.0% | 46.9% | 0.84 | 0.72 / 2.43 | - | pending |
| Norway vs France FIFA World Cup | 0-2 | Draw | 9.5% / 14.7% / 75.8% | 67.9% | 53.0% | 0.85 | 0.84 / 2.66 | - | pending |
| Senegal vs Iraq FIFA World Cup | 2-0 | Draw | 82.0% / 12.0% / 5.9% | 67.4% | 45.0% | 0.88 | 2.82 / 0.65 | - | pending |
| Egypt vs Iran FIFA World Cup | 2-1 | Draw | 60.6% / 20.8% / 18.6% | 60.0% | 56.7% | 0.79 | 2.06 / 1.05 | - | pending |
| Cabo Verde vs Saudi Arabia FIFA World Cup | 0-0 | Draw | 32.7% / 31.3% / 36.0% | 31.7% | 39.5% | 0.69 | 0.96 / 1.02 | - | pending |
Match detail
New Zealand vs Belgium
FIFA World Cup · 20260626 · 4-2-3-1 vs 4-2-3-1
Predicted 1-1Winner: DrawConfidence 0.74λ home/away 1.05 / 1.54Most-likely P 12.2%
Actual vs predicted: result not available yet (upcoming fixture).
Lambda decomposition (how the goal rates were built)
| Stage | New Zealand λ | Belgium λ |
|---|
| Pre-competitive-floor | 0.675 | 1.539 |
| Pre-calibration | 0.675 | 1.539 |
| Final λ | 1.050 | 1.539 |
competition calibration scale 1.0competition observed total goals 0.0quality gap applied Truemismatch score pressure applied Falsecompetitive underdog floor applied Truestage discount 1.0
Scoreline distribution & markets
| Top 5 scorelines | P |
|---|
| 1-1 | 12.2% |
| 0-1 | 11.5% |
| 1-2 | 9.3% |
| 0-2 | 8.9% |
| 1-0 | 7.8% |
| Home win | 25.8% |
| Draw | 25.7% |
| Away win | 48.5% |
| Over 2.5 | 47.9% |
| BTTS yes | 51.1% |
Pregame fair line — favorite Belgium (48.5%), fair total 2.59, fair spread -0.49
Projected players vs season baseline
Proj = projected for this match · Season = this season's per-game average from match data · deviation badge compares projected xG to the player's season xG/game.
New Zealand — projected line vs season baseline (4-2-3-1)
| Player | Pos | Min | Proj G | Proj xG | Season xG/g | | Proj Sh | Season Sh/g | Proj Rtg | Season Rtg | Rec |
|---|
| Chris Wood | F | 81 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.20 | 49% | 2 | 0.9 | 88.4 | 54.3 | 12 |
| Sarpreet Singh | M | 76 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.06 | 75% | 2 | 1.2 | 84.0 | 63.8 | 4 |
| Callum McCowatt | M | 67 | 0 | 0.15 | 0.11 | 35% | 2 | 1.3 | 73.4 | 63.3 | 3 |
| Elijah Just | M | 87 | 1 | 0.22 | 0.16 | 45% | 2 | 2.4 | 73.8 | 72.7 | 7 |
| Marko Stamenić | M | 89 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.04 | 35% | 2 | 1.0 | 77.9 | 68.3 | 3 |
| Joe Bell | M | 90 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 112% | 1 | 0.3 | 80.7 | 66.0 | 3 |
| Liberato Cacace | M | 77 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.01 | 444% | 1 | 0.2 | 78.5 | 48.8 | 4 |
| Michael Boxall | D | 88 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | 0 | 0.0 | 75.3 | 45.4 | 7 |
| Finn Surman | D | 89 | 0 | 0.29 | 0.07 | 300% | 1 | 0.2 | 75.4 | 42.6 | 8 |
| Tim Payne | D | 77 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 100% | 0 | 0.3 | 70.1 | 64.0 | 6 |
| Max Crocombe | G | 89 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | 0 | 0.0 | 71.7 | 63.3 | 3 |
| Team totals | 1 | 1.05 | | 13 | | 77.2 | |
Belgium — projected line vs season baseline (4-2-3-1)
| Player | Pos | Min | Proj G | Proj xG | Season xG/g | | Proj Sh | Season Sh/g | Proj Rtg | Season Rtg | Rec |
|---|
| Romelu Lukaku | F | 48 | 0 | 0.13 | 0.12 | ok | 2 | 0.7 | 90.0 | 47.7 | 7 |
| Leandro Trossard | F | 77 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.15 | 58% | 2 | 1.6 | 90.4 | 45.3 | 19 |
| Kevin De Bruyne | M | 82 | 0 | 0.21 | 0.14 | 54% | 2 | 2.1 | 93.9 | 48.1 | 9 |
| Dodi Lukebakio | M | 49 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.03 | 32% | 1 | 0.5 | 88.8 | 19.6 | 14 |
| Youri Tielemans | M | 88 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.05 | ok | 2 | 0.9 | 92.6 | 48.8 | 18 |
| Hans Vanaken | M | 34 | 1 | 0.11 | 0.10 | ok | 1 | 1.1 | 86.8 | 61.4 | 11 |
| Maxim De Cuyper | D | 67 | 0 | 0.66 | 0.09 | 617% | 2 | 0.8 | 87.3 | 44.3 | 13 |
| Brandon Mechele | D | 89 | 0 | 0.16 | 0.07 | 145% | 1 | 0.5 | 83.5 | 59.2 | 11 |
| Arthur Theate | D | 32 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 100% | 0 | 0.4 | 86.8 | 19.5 | 10 |
| Thomas Meunier | D | 73 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.02 | 282% | 1 | 0.3 | 82.6 | 31.5 | 13 |
| Thibaut Courtois | G | 89 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | 0 | 0.0 | 96.3 | 46.9 | 17 |
| Team totals | 1 | 1.54 | | 14 | | 89.0 | |
Antagonist / tactical summary
Midfield is evenly contested — Joe Bell vs Youri Tielemans will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.45, Away: 0.60. Home danger zone: Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle. Away danger zone: Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle.
Midfield — possession 48.7% / 51.3%, dominance ratio 0.46, key duel: Joe Bell vs Youri Tielemans
Sarpreet Singh xG 0.10Elijah Just xG 0.20Marko Stamenić xG 0.04Kevin De Bruyne xG 0.28Romelu Lukaku xG 0.15Youri Tielemans xG 0.05
Summary
Antagonist matchup analysis for New Zealand vs Belgium. Most likely scoreline: 1-1. Lambdas derived from 5 home and 5 away individual player duels.
Tactical parity between 4-2-3-1 and 4-2-3-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Midfield is evenly contested — Joe Bell vs Youri Tielemans will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.45, Away: 0.60. Home danger zone: Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle. Away danger zone: Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle.
Uruguay vs Spain
FIFA World Cup · 20260626 · 4-2-3-1 vs 4-2-3-1
Predicted 0-2Winner: DrawConfidence 0.84λ home/away 0.72 / 2.43Most-likely P 12.6%
Actual vs predicted: result not available yet (upcoming fixture).
Lambda decomposition (how the goal rates were built)
| Stage | Uruguay λ | Spain λ |
|---|
| Pre-mismatch | 0.736 | 2.248 |
| Pre-calibration | 0.736 | 2.248 |
| Final λ | 0.721 | 2.432 |
competition calibration scale 1.0competition observed total goals 0.0quality gap applied Truemismatch score pressure applied Truecompetitive underdog floor applied Falsestage discount 1.0
Scoreline distribution & markets
| Top 5 scorelines | P |
|---|
| 0-2 | 12.6% |
| 0-1 | 10.4% |
| 0-3 | 10.2% |
| 1-2 | 9.1% |
| 1-1 | 7.5% |
| Home win | 9.1% |
| Draw | 15.8% |
| Away win | 75.1% |
| Over 2.5 | 61.0% |
| BTTS yes | 46.9% |
Pregame fair line — favorite Spain (75.1%), fair total 3.15, fair spread -1.71
Projected players vs season baseline
Proj = projected for this match · Season = this season's per-game average from match data · deviation badge compares projected xG to the player's season xG/game.
Uruguay — projected line vs season baseline (4-2-3-1)
| Player | Pos | Min | Proj G | Proj xG | Season xG/g | | Proj Sh | Season Sh/g | Proj Rtg | Season Rtg | Rec |
|---|
| Federico Viñas | F | 69 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.13 | 34% | 2 | 1.5 | 78.6 | 55.0 | 6 |
| Maximiliano Araújo | D | 85 | 0 | 0.18 | 0.19 | ok | 2 | 1.0 | 84.6 | 53.9 | 12 |
| Federico Valverde | M | 92 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.18 | 49% | 2 | 1.5 | 96.0 | 50.0 | 13 |
| Agustín Canobbio | M | 74 | 0 | 0.13 | 0.10 | ok | 1 | 0.7 | 85.2 | 35.9 | 12 |
| Rodrigo Bentancur | M | 84 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.07 | 31% | 2 | 0.8 | 87.1 | 51.4 | 8 |
| Juan Sanabria | D | 74 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.02 | 61% | 1 | 0.5 | 88.6 | 42.4 | 8 |
| Mathías Olivera | D | 85 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.01 | 350% | 0 | 0.2 | 84.9 | 58.3 | 6 |
| Sebastián Cáceres | D | 83 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.02 | ok | 1 | 0.5 | 88.6 | 54.3 | 6 |
| Guillermo Varela | D | 82 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 367% | 1 | 0.2 | 84.5 | 32.6 | 12 |
| Fernando Muslera | G | 89 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | 0 | 0.0 | 85.0 | 34.6 | 11 |
| Manuel Ugarte | M | 75 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.01 | ok | 1 | 0.4 | 85.6 | 27.9 | 7 |
| Team totals | 0 | 0.72 | | 14 | | 86.2 | |
Spain — projected line vs season baseline (4-2-3-1)
| Player | Pos | Min | Proj G | Proj xG | Season xG/g | | Proj Sh | Season Sh/g | Proj Rtg | Season Rtg | Rec |
|---|
| Marc Cucurella | D | 92 | 0 | 0.24 | 0.02 | 987% | 1 | 0.2 | 91.2 | 46.3 | 16 |
| Aymeric Laporte | D | 90 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.02 | 388% | 1 | 0.4 | 89.7 | 46.4 | 14 |
| Pau Cubarsí | D | 90 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.01 | 333% | 0 | 0.2 | 89.8 | 43.7 | 18 |
| Pedro Porro | D | 92 | 0 | 0.29 | 0.12 | 151% | 1 | 0.9 | 89.4 | 46.1 | 16 |
| Unai Simón | G | 91 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | 0 | 0.0 | 92.1 | 41.5 | 15 |
| Pedri | M | 80 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.01 | 616% | 2 | 0.2 | 97.1 | 51.7 | 18 |
| Rodri | M | 90 | 0 | 0.14 | 0.06 | 142% | 2 | 1.0 | 98.4 | 50.5 | 15 |
| Lamine Yamal | M | 51 | 1 | 0.50 | 0.25 | 102% | 2 | 2.0 | 97.0 | 45.9 | 18 |
| Dani Olmo | M | 41 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.07 | ok | 1 | 0.9 | 92.2 | 50.9 | 19 |
| Mikel Oyarzabal | F | 65 | 1 | 0.60 | 0.30 | 97% | 2 | 1.8 | 94.7 | 54.8 | 13 |
| Alex Baena | M | 53 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.04 | 87% | 1 | 0.9 | 90.9 | 46.3 | 21 |
| Team totals | 2 | 2.43 | | 14 | | 93.0 | |
Antagonist / tactical summary
Away midfield dictates play with ~51% possession expected (Federico Valverde vs Lamine Yamal). Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.88, Away: 1.05. Home danger zone: Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle. Away danger zone: Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle.
Midfield — possession 49.1% / 50.9%, dominance ratio 0.44, key duel: Federico Valverde vs Lamine Yamal
Federico Valverde xG 0.29Guillermo Varela xG 0.04Rodrigo Bentancur xG 0.08Rodri xG 0.13Lamine Yamal xG 0.40Pedri xG 0.06
Summary
Antagonist matchup analysis for Uruguay vs Spain. Most likely scoreline: 0-2. Lambdas derived from 5 home and 5 away individual player duels.
Tactical parity between 4-2-3-1 and 4-2-3-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Away midfield dictates play with ~51% possession expected (Federico Valverde vs Lamine Yamal). Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.88, Away: 1.05. Home danger zone: Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle. Away danger zone: Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle.
Norway vs France
FIFA World Cup · 20260626 · 4-4-2 vs 4-2-3-1
Predicted 0-2Winner: DrawConfidence 0.85λ home/away 0.84 / 2.66Most-likely P 10.6%
Actual vs predicted: result not available yet (upcoming fixture).
Lambda decomposition (how the goal rates were built)
| Stage | Norway λ | France λ |
|---|
| Pre-calibration | 0.845 | 2.658 |
| Final λ | 0.845 | 2.657 |
competition calibration scale 1.0competition observed total goals 0.0quality gap applied Truemismatch score pressure applied Falsecompetitive underdog floor applied Falsestage discount 1.0
Scoreline distribution & markets
| Top 5 scorelines | P |
|---|
| 0-2 | 10.6% |
| 0-3 | 9.4% |
| 1-2 | 9.0% |
| 0-1 | 8.0% |
| 1-3 | 8.0% |
| Home win | 9.5% |
| Draw | 14.7% |
| Away win | 75.8% |
| Over 2.5 | 67.9% |
| BTTS yes | 53.0% |
Pregame fair line — favorite France (75.8%), fair total 3.50, fair spread -1.81
Projected players vs season baseline
Proj = projected for this match · Season = this season's per-game average from match data · deviation badge compares projected xG to the player's season xG/game.
Norway — projected line vs season baseline (4-4-2)
| Player | Pos | Min | Proj G | Proj xG | Season xG/g | | Proj Sh | Season Sh/g | Proj Rtg | Season Rtg | Rec |
|---|
| Erling Haaland | F | 91 | 0 | 0.43 | 0.46 | ok | 2 | 2.1 | 98.3 | 40.1 | 15 |
| Alexander Sørloth | F | 67 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.06 | ok | 1 | 0.5 | 90.4 | 41.4 | 19 |
| Antonio Nusa | F | 69 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.03 | 42% | 1 | 0.6 | 82.8 | 44.3 | 12 |
| Patrick Berg | M | 34 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 100% | 1 | 0.4 | 83.8 | 53.5 | 8 |
| Sander Berge | M | 89 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 100% | 2 | 0.2 | 86.0 | 31.8 | 13 |
| David Møller Wolfe | D | 80 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | 0 | 0.0 | 79.9 | 46.8 | 10 |
| Torbjørn Heggem | D | 79 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 100% | 0 | 0.1 | 79.9 | 46.0 | 13 |
| Kristoffer Ajer | D | 91 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.02 | 503% | 0 | 0.1 | 81.9 | 31.5 | 13 |
| Marcus Pedersen | M | 75 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.05 | ok | 1 | 0.2 | 78.9 | 28.9 | 14 |
| Ørjan Nyland | G | 89 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | 0 | 0.0 | 82.6 | 35.2 | 10 |
| Martin Ødegaard | M | 81 | 0 | 0.13 | 0.12 | ok | 2 | 0.8 | 94.4 | 39.2 | 16 |
| Team totals | 0 | 0.84 | | 10 | | 85.3 | |
France — projected line vs season baseline (4-2-3-1)
| Player | Pos | Min | Proj G | Proj xG | Season xG/g | | Proj Sh | Season Sh/g | Proj Rtg | Season Rtg | Rec |
|---|
| Dayot Upamecano | D | 91 | 0 | 0.45 | 0.11 | 304% | 0 | 0.6 | 93.1 | 59.0 | 18 |
| Maxence Lacroix | D | 90 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.01 | 1012% | 0 | 0.1 | 86.5 | 25.7 | 16 |
| Malo Gusto | D | 23 | 0 | 0.21 | 0.01 | 1684% | 0 | 0.1 | 85.7 | 33.1 | 14 |
| Mike Maignan | G | 91 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | 0 | 0.0 | 93.6 | 63.8 | 12 |
| Theo Hernández | D | 91 | 0 | 0.14 | 0.03 | 446% | 1 | 0.7 | 90.5 | 47.3 | 13 |
| Manu Koné | M | 83 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.02 | ok | 1 | 0.5 | 86.2 | 42.8 | 11 |
| Aurélien Tchouaméni | M | 91 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.04 | 41% | 0 | 0.6 | 91.4 | 38.5 | 19 |
| Michael Olise | M | 81 | 0 | 0.29 | 0.29 | ok | 2 | 2.8 | 94.0 | 73.5 | 17 |
| Kylian Mbappé | F | 87 | 1 | 0.87 | 0.55 | 60% | 2 | 3.5 | 99.5 | 57.6 | 19 |
| Désiré Doué | F | 56 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.09 | ok | 2 | 1.4 | 91.9 | 53.2 | 21 |
| Ousmane Dembélé | F | 74 | 1 | 0.34 | 0.24 | 43% | 2 | 1.6 | 97.7 | 54.3 | 24 |
| Team totals | 2 | 2.66 | | 10 | | 91.8 | |
Antagonist / tactical summary
Away midfield dictates play with ~53% possession expected (Martin Ødegaard vs Michael Olise). Total antagonist xG — Home: 1.28, Away: 1.45. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle.
Midfield — possession 47.3% / 52.7%, dominance ratio 0.43, key duel: Martin Ødegaard vs Michael Olise
Erling Haaland xG 0.94Patrick Berg xG 0.13Marcus Pedersen xG 0.07Michael Olise xG 0.30Désiré Doué xG 0.10Ousmane Dembélé xG 0.29
Summary
Antagonist matchup analysis for Norway vs France. Most likely scoreline: 0-2. Lambdas derived from 4 home and 5 away individual player duels.
Tactical parity between 4-4-2 and 4-2-3-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Away midfield dictates play with ~53% possession expected (Martin Ødegaard vs Michael Olise). Total antagonist xG — Home: 1.28, Away: 1.45. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle.
Senegal vs Iraq
FIFA World Cup · 20260626 · 4-3-3 vs 4-1-4-1
Predicted 2-0Winner: DrawConfidence 0.88λ home/away 2.82 / 0.65Most-likely P 12.4%
Actual vs predicted: result not available yet (upcoming fixture).
Lambda decomposition (how the goal rates were built)
| Stage | Senegal λ | Iraq λ |
|---|
| Pre-mismatch | 2.579 | 0.655 |
| Pre-calibration | 2.579 | 0.655 |
| Final λ | 2.823 | 0.650 |
competition calibration scale 1.0competition observed total goals 0.0quality gap applied Truemismatch score pressure applied Truecompetitive underdog floor applied Falsestage discount 1.0
Scoreline distribution & markets
| Top 5 scorelines | P |
|---|
| 2-0 | 12.4% |
| 3-0 | 11.6% |
| 1-0 | 8.8% |
| 4-0 | 8.2% |
| 2-1 | 8.0% |
| Home win | 82.0% |
| Draw | 12.0% |
| Away win | 5.9% |
| Over 2.5 | 67.4% |
| BTTS yes | 45.0% |
Pregame fair line — favorite Senegal (82.0%), fair total 3.47, fair spread 2.17
Projected players vs season baseline
Proj = projected for this match · Season = this season's per-game average from match data · deviation badge compares projected xG to the player's season xG/game.
Senegal — projected line vs season baseline (4-3-3)
| Player | Pos | Min | Proj G | Proj xG | Season xG/g | | Proj Sh | Season Sh/g | Proj Rtg | Season Rtg | Rec |
|---|
| Sadio Mané | M | 90 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.23 | 72% | 2 | 1.0 | 89.7 | 51.4 | 8 |
| Nicolas Jackson | F | 77 | 0 | 0.64 | 0.17 | 272% | 2 | 1.4 | 86.6 | 41.2 | 15 |
| Ismaïla Sarr | F | 78 | 2 | 1.38 | 0.30 | 358% | 3 | 1.6 | 86.1 | 37.9 | 13 |
| Pape Gueye | M | 70 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 100% | 2 | 0.9 | 84.8 | 47.7 | 11 |
| Idrissa Gana Gueye | M | 88 | 0 | 0.12 | 0.02 | 480% | 1 | 0.8 | 88.9 | 55.2 | 4 |
| Lamine Camara | M | 75 | 0 | 0.32 | 0.08 | 292% | 2 | 1.2 | 83.5 | 61.0 | 6 |
| El Hadji Malick Diouf | D | 75 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 100% | 0 | 0.1 | 81.4 | 47.6 | 7 |
| Moussa Niakhaté | D | 87 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 100% | 0 | 0.1 | 84.3 | 59.3 | 9 |
| Kalidou Koulibaly | D | 81 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | 0 | 0.0 | 87.7 | 38.3 | 3 |
| Krépin Diatta | M | 90 | 0 | 0.13 | 0.01 | 1477% | 0 | 0.1 | 80.7 | 25.9 | 8 |
| Mory Diaw | G | 41 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | 0 | 0.0 | 76.9 | 52.7 | 7 |
| Team totals | 2 | 2.82 | | 12 | | 84.6 | |
Iraq — projected line vs season baseline (4-1-4-1)
| Player | Pos | Min | Proj G | Proj xG | Season xG/g | | Proj Sh | Season Sh/g | Proj Rtg | Season Rtg | Rec |
|---|
| Ali Al-Hamadi | F | 61 | 0 | 0.29 | 0.15 | 86% | 2 | 1.2 | 72.3 | 39.0 | 5 |
| Ibrahim Bayesh | M | 73 | 0 | 0.16 | 0.06 | 146% | 2 | 0.3 | 74.3 | 64.0 | 3 |
| Zidane Iqbal | M | 60 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | 1 | 0.0 | 74.6 | 65.7 | 3 |
| Zaid Ismail | M | 59 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | 1 | 0.0 | 92.6 | 44.3 | 3 |
| Amir Al-Ammari | M | 79 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | 1 | 0.0 | 71.8 | 65.7 | 3 |
| Merchas Doski | D | 89 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 282% | 0 | 0.3 | 74.7 | 67.2 | 6 |
| Akam Hashem | D | 89 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.01 | 245% | 0 | 0.3 | 86.6 | 62.3 | 3 |
| Zaid Tahseen | D | 76 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.01 | 807% | 1 | 0.3 | 86.0 | 29.3 | 11 |
| Hussein Ali | D | 81 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.01 | 248% | 0 | 0.3 | 87.1 | 40.3 | 3 |
| Ahmed Basil | G | 89 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | 0 | 0.0 | 89.5 | 30.5 | 4 |
| Ahmed Qasem | M | 60 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 100% | 0 | 0.1 | 72.3 | 34.7 | 9 |
| Team totals | 0 | 0.65 | | 8 | | 80.2 | |
Antagonist / tactical summary
Home midfield dominates with ~53% possession expected (Lamine Camara vs Ahmed Qasem). Total antagonist xG — Home: 1.14, Away: 0.62. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle.
Midfield — possession 53.2% / 46.8%, dominance ratio 0.57, key duel: Lamine Camara vs Ahmed Qasem
Pape Gueye xG 0.20Lamine Camara xG 0.15Nicolas Jackson xG 0.24Ali Al-Hamadi xG 0.25Ibrahim Bayesh xG 0.14Zidane Iqbal xG 0.11
Summary
Antagonist matchup analysis for Senegal vs Iraq. Most likely scoreline: 2-0. Lambdas derived from 5 home and 5 away individual player duels.
Tactical parity between 4-3-3 and 4-1-4-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Home midfield dominates with ~53% possession expected (Lamine Camara vs Ahmed Qasem). Total antagonist xG — Home: 1.14, Away: 0.62. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle.
Egypt vs Iran
FIFA World Cup · 20260626 · 4-2-3-1 vs 5-4-1
Predicted 2-1Winner: DrawConfidence 0.79λ home/away 2.06 / 1.05Most-likely P 9.9%
Actual vs predicted: result not available yet (upcoming fixture).
Lambda decomposition (how the goal rates were built)
| Stage | Egypt λ | Iran λ |
|---|
| Pre-competitive-floor | 2.056 | 0.812 |
| Pre-calibration | 2.056 | 0.812 |
| Final λ | 2.056 | 1.050 |
competition calibration scale 1.0competition observed total goals 0.0quality gap applied Truemismatch score pressure applied Falsecompetitive underdog floor applied Truestage discount 1.0
Scoreline distribution & markets
| Top 5 scorelines | P |
|---|
| 2-1 | 9.9% |
| 1-1 | 9.7% |
| 2-0 | 9.5% |
| 1-0 | 9.2% |
| 3-1 | 6.8% |
| Home win | 60.6% |
| Draw | 20.8% |
| Away win | 18.6% |
| Over 2.5 | 60.0% |
| BTTS yes | 56.7% |
Pregame fair line — favorite Egypt (60.6%), fair total 3.11, fair spread 1.01
Projected players vs season baseline
Proj = projected for this match · Season = this season's per-game average from match data · deviation badge compares projected xG to the player's season xG/game.
Egypt — projected line vs season baseline (4-2-3-1)
| Player | Pos | Min | Proj G | Proj xG | Season xG/g | | Proj Sh | Season Sh/g | Proj Rtg | Season Rtg | Rec |
|---|
| Omar Marmoush | F | 74 | 1 | 0.40 | 0.08 | 384% | 3 | 1.1 | 91.5 | 44.7 | 14 |
| Mostafa Ziko | M | 76 | 0 | 0.42 | 0.20 | 114% | 2 | 1.1 | 88.9 | 39.7 | 7 |
| Emam Ashour | M | 79 | 0 | 0.38 | 0.11 | 243% | 2 | 1.2 | 89.0 | 56.2 | 6 |
| Mohamed Salah | M | 79 | 1 | 0.61 | 0.28 | 115% | 2 | 1.6 | 98.7 | 53.3 | 12 |
| Mohanad Lasheen | M | 90 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 100% | 0 | 0.4 | 88.9 | 68.6 | 5 |
| Marwan Attia | M | 90 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 548% | 0 | 0.2 | 88.8 | 58.7 | 6 |
| Ahmed Fatouh | D | 88 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.01 | 650% | 0 | 0.2 | 88.8 | 40.8 | 5 |
| Rami Rabia | D | 34 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | 0 | 0.0 | 87.9 | 70.5 | 4 |
| Yasser Ibrahim | D | 89 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 100% | 0 | 0.2 | 87.5 | 58.0 | 6 |
| Mohamed Hany | D | 89 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.02 | 180% | 1 | 0.8 | 88.3 | 55.0 | 6 |
| Mostafa Shobeir | G | 89 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | 0 | 0.0 | 89.6 | 62.2 | 6 |
| Team totals | 2 | 2.06 | | 10 | | 89.8 | |
Iran — projected line vs season baseline (5-4-1)
| Player | Pos | Min | Proj G | Proj xG | Season xG/g | | Proj Sh | Season Sh/g | Proj Rtg | Season Rtg | Rec |
|---|
| Alireza Jahanbakhsh | F | 45 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.03 | 91% | 1 | 0.3 | 87.4 | 44.7 | 3 |
| Ehsan Hajsafi | D | 45 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 176% | 0 | 0.3 | 87.6 | 44.7 | 3 |
| Ali Nemati | D | 89 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.03 | 166% | 0 | 0.3 | 6.5 | 67.7 | 3 |
| Shoja Khalilzadeh | D | 89 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.05 | 61% | 0 | 0.7 | 86.3 | 70.7 | 3 |
| Hossein Kanaani | D | 89 | 0 | 0.13 | 0.05 | 165% | 1 | 0.3 | 89.3 | 45.3 | 3 |
| Ramin Rezaeian | M | 89 | 0 | 0.21 | 0.12 | 86% | 2 | 0.8 | 87.6 | 45.4 | 5 |
| Alireza Beiranvand | G | 89 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | 0 | 0.0 | 88.8 | 76.3 | 3 |
| Saman Ghoddos | M | 72 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.11 | ok | 2 | 1.3 | 87.8 | 66.7 | 3 |
| Saeid Ezatolahi | M | 87 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.18 | 48% | 2 | 2.0 | 87.7 | 69.3 | 3 |
| Mehdi Taremi | F | 73 | 0 | 0.17 | 0.30 | 43% | 2 | 2.0 | 84.6 | 56.9 | 7 |
| Mohammad Mohebi | F | 82 | 1 | 0.17 | 0.08 | 108% | 2 | 0.5 | 88.9 | 51.2 | 4 |
| Team totals | 1 | 1.05 | | 12 | | 80.2 | |
Antagonist / tactical summary
Home midfield dominates with ~51% possession expected (Mohamed Salah vs Saeid Ezatolahi). Total antagonist xG — Home: 1.25, Away: 0.85. Home danger zone: CAM vs CM. Away danger zone: Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel.
Midfield — possession 51.1% / 48.9%, dominance ratio 0.56, key duel: Mohamed Salah vs Saeid Ezatolahi
Mostafa Ziko xG 0.28Mohamed Salah xG 0.45Emam Ashour xG 0.26Mohammad Mohebi xG 0.19Ramin Rezaeian xG 0.26Mehdi Taremi xG 0.19
Summary
Antagonist matchup analysis for Egypt vs Iran. Most likely scoreline: 2-1. Lambdas derived from 4 home and 6 away individual player duels.
Tactical parity between 4-2-3-1 and 5-4-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Home midfield dominates with ~51% possession expected (Mohamed Salah vs Saeid Ezatolahi). Total antagonist xG — Home: 1.25, Away: 0.85. Home danger zone: CAM vs CM. Away danger zone: Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel.
Cabo Verde vs Saudi Arabia
FIFA World Cup · 20260626 · 4-1-4-1 vs 5-4-1
Predicted 0-0Winner: DrawConfidence 0.69λ home/away 0.96 / 1.02Most-likely P 14.0%
Actual vs predicted: result not available yet (upcoming fixture).
Lambda decomposition (how the goal rates were built)
| Stage | Cabo Verde λ | Saudi Arabia λ |
|---|
| Pre-competitive-floor | 0.957 | 0.698 |
| Pre-calibration | 0.957 | 0.698 |
| Final λ | 0.957 | 1.020 |
competition calibration scale 1.0competition observed total goals 0.0quality gap applied Falsemismatch score pressure applied Falsecompetitive underdog floor applied Truestage discount 1.0
Scoreline distribution & markets
| Top 5 scorelines | P |
|---|
| 0-0 | 14.0% |
| 0-1 | 14.0% |
| 1-1 | 13.7% |
| 1-0 | 13.1% |
| 0-2 | 7.2% |
| Home win | 32.7% |
| Draw | 31.3% |
| Away win | 36.0% |
| Over 2.5 | 31.7% |
| BTTS yes | 39.5% |
Pregame fair line — favorite Saudi Arabia (36.0%), fair total 1.98, fair spread -0.06
Projected players vs season baseline
Proj = projected for this match · Season = this season's per-game average from match data · deviation badge compares projected xG to the player's season xG/game.
Cabo Verde — projected line vs season baseline (4-1-4-1)
| Player | Pos | Min | Proj G | Proj xG | Season xG/g | | Proj Sh | Season Sh/g | Proj Rtg | Season Rtg | Rec |
|---|
| Nuno Da Costa | F | 32 | 0 | 0.22 | 0.04 | 417% | 2 | 0.5 | 80.6 | 56.5 | 6 |
| Hélio Varela | M | 49 | 0 | 0.32 | 0.07 | 375% | 2 | 0.2 | 88.2 | 23.2 | 6 |
| Jamiro Monteiro | M | 75 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.04 | 51% | 1 | 0.8 | 75.7 | 55.7 | 6 |
| Deroy Duarte | M | 37 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 100% | 2 | 0.2 | 87.7 | 52.0 | 4 |
| Ryan Mendes | M | 89 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.05 | ok | 1 | 1.0 | 77.7 | 51.0 | 4 |
| Kevin Lenini | M | 80 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.02 | 125% | 2 | 1.0 | 88.9 | 53.0 | 4 |
| Stopira | D | 89 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | 0 | 0.6 | 89.7 | 27.4 | 5 |
| Diney Borges | D | 89 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.03 | 114% | 1 | 0.5 | 89.5 | 56.8 | 4 |
| Pico | D | 89 | 0 | 0.12 | 0.06 | 93% | 0 | 0.5 | 87.3 | 55.0 | 4 |
| Steven Moreira | D | 88 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 688% | 0 | 0.1 | 78.5 | 33.5 | 8 |
| Vozinha | G | 89 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | 0 | 0.0 | 88.5 | 57.5 | 4 |
| Team totals | 0 | 0.96 | | 11 | | 84.8 | |
Saudi Arabia — projected line vs season baseline (5-4-1)
| Player | Pos | Min | Proj G | Proj xG | Season xG/g | | Proj Sh | Season Sh/g | Proj Rtg | Season Rtg | Rec |
|---|
| Moteb Al-Harbi | D | 86 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | 0 | 0.0 | 87.3 | 68.1 | 7 |
| Hassan Tambakti | D | 85 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | 0 | 0.0 | 88.0 | 66.0 | 7 |
| Ali Lajami | D | 42 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | 0 | 0.0 | 76.2 | 39.3 | 7 |
| Abdulelah Al-Amri | D | 77 | 0 | 0.54 | 0.10 | 454% | 1 | 0.7 | 76.5 | 68.0 | 6 |
| Saud Abdulhamid | M | 82 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.01 | 821% | 2 | 0.2 | 81.3 | 40.4 | 8 |
| Mohammed Al-Owais | G | 89 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | 0 | 0.0 | 88.3 | 73.3 | 3 |
| Musab Al Juwayr | M | 60 | 0 | 0.29 | 0.10 | 190% | 2 | 1.1 | 90.5 | 61.6 | 7 |
| Abdullah Al-Khaibari | M | 70 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.01 | 176% | 1 | 0.4 | 74.4 | 65.2 | 5 |
| Nasser Al-Dawsari | M | 64 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 100% | 2 | 0.7 | 74.7 | 69.1 | 7 |
| Salem Al-Dawsari | M | 77 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.05 | ok | 2 | 0.8 | 88.4 | 52.7 | 6 |
| Firas Al-Buraikan | F | 71 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.11 | 96% | 2 | 0.4 | 90.6 | 66.0 | 7 |
| Team totals | 0 | 1.02 | | 12 | | 83.3 | |
Antagonist / tactical summary
Midfield is evenly contested — Kevin Lenini vs Saud Abdulhamid will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.70, Away: 0.41. Home danger zone: LM vs CB. Away danger zone: Right Mid vs Left Back — Wide Channel.
Midfield — possession 49.7% / 50.3%, dominance ratio 0.49, key duel: Kevin Lenini vs Saud Abdulhamid
Hélio Varela xG 0.29Deroy Duarte xG 0.10Kevin Lenini xG 0.05Moteb Al-Harbi xG 0.07Salem Al-Dawsari xG 0.02Nasser Al-Dawsari xG 0.11
Summary
Antagonist matchup analysis for Cabo Verde vs Saudi Arabia. Most likely scoreline: 0-0. Lambdas derived from 5 home and 7 away individual player duels.
Tactical parity between 4-1-4-1 and 5-4-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Midfield is evenly contested — Kevin Lenini vs Saud Abdulhamid will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.70, Away: 0.41. Home danger zone: LM vs CB. Away danger zone: Right Mid vs Left Back — Wide Channel.
Generated 2026-09-04 22:27:55 UTC · Soccer prediction reporting