Soccer predictions: actual data vs predicted data
Slate 20260627 · 6 match(es)
How to read this report. Each match shows the model's headline prediction, the stage-by-stage lambda (goal-rate) build, both teams' standing/form inputs, and every starter's projected line next to their real season baseline. A moderate / large deviation badge flags a projection that strays far from the player's season form — a quick way to spot when the inputs look right but a projection does not. When the real result is known an actual-vs-predicted banner appears.
All matches overview
| Match | Score | Winner | H / D / A | O2.5 | BTTS | Conf | λ H/A | Actual | Result |
|---|
| Jordan vs Argentina FIFA World Cup | 0-2 | Draw | 10.1% / 18.3% / 71.6% | 52.5% | 42.1% | 0.82 | 0.65 / 2.13 | - | pending |
| Algeria vs Austria FIFA World Cup | 1-1 | Draw | 30.6% / 28.8% / 40.6% | 38.9% | 45.2% | 0.71 | 1.02 / 1.22 | - | pending |
| Panama vs England FIFA World Cup | 0-3 | Draw | 5.3% / 10.6% / 84.1% | 72.5% | 47.5% | 0.89 | 0.69 / 3.07 | - | pending |
| Croatia vs Ghana FIFA World Cup | 1-1 | Draw | 29.7% / 25.6% / 44.7% | 50.5% | 54.2% | 0.74 | 1.18 / 1.51 | - | pending |
| Colombia vs Portugal FIFA World Cup | 0-2 | Draw | 6.7% / 11.9% / 81.4% | 71.9% | 50.8% | 0.88 | 0.77 / 2.96 | - | pending |
| DR Congo vs Uzbekistan FIFA World Cup | 0-0 | Draw | 36.3% / 31.4% / 32.3% | 31.4% | 39.2% | 0.69 | 1.02 / 0.94 | - | pending |
Match detail
Jordan vs Argentina
FIFA World Cup · 20260627 · 3-4-3 vs 4-3-3
Predicted 0-2Winner: DrawConfidence 0.82λ home/away 0.65 / 2.13Most-likely P 14.1%
Actual vs predicted: result not available yet (upcoming fixture).
Lambda decomposition (how the goal rates were built)
| Stage | Jordan λ | Argentina λ |
|---|
| Pre-mismatch | 0.670 | 1.932 |
| Pre-calibration | 0.670 | 1.933 |
| Final λ | 0.651 | 2.127 |
competition calibration scale 1.0competition observed total goals 0.0quality gap applied Truemismatch score pressure applied Truecompetitive underdog floor applied Falsestage discount 1.0
Scoreline distribution & markets
| Top 5 scorelines | P |
|---|
| 0-2 | 14.1% |
| 0-1 | 13.2% |
| 0-3 | 10.0% |
| 1-2 | 9.2% |
| 1-1 | 8.6% |
| Home win | 10.1% |
| Draw | 18.3% |
| Away win | 71.6% |
| Over 2.5 | 52.5% |
| BTTS yes | 42.1% |
Pregame fair line — favorite Argentina (71.6%), fair total 2.78, fair spread -1.48
Projected players vs season baseline
Proj = projected for this match · Season = this season's per-game average from match data · deviation badge compares projected xG to the player's season xG/game.
Jordan — projected line vs season baseline (3-4-3)
| Player | Pos | Min | Proj G | Proj xG | Season xG/g | | Proj Sh | Season Sh/g | Proj Rtg | Season Rtg | Rec |
|---|
| Mahmoud Al-Mardi | M | 57 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.01 | 449% | 2 | 0.2 | 87.7 | 33.0 | 6 |
| Ali Olwan | F | 89 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.09 | ok | 2 | 2.0 | 90.1 | 69.7 | 3 |
| Mousa Tamari | F | 87 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.23 | 51% | 2 | 2.7 | 90.5 | 69.2 | 6 |
| Mohannad Abu Taha | M | 87 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 100% | 1 | 0.2 | 88.2 | 50.8 | 4 |
| Noor Al-Rawabdeh | M | 89 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 113% | 1 | 0.3 | 86.8 | 67.3 | 3 |
| Nizar Al-Rashdan | M | 89 | 0 | 0.31 | 0.06 | 454% | 1 | 0.9 | 89.8 | 69.3 | 7 |
| Ehsan Haddad | M | 85 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 113% | 1 | 0.3 | 88.5 | 66.0 | 3 |
| Husam Ali Mohammad Abudahab | D | 88 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | 0 | 0.0 | 87.8 | 42.3 | 3 |
| Yazan Al-Arab | D | 86 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | 0 | 0.4 | 81.3 | 38.0 | 14 |
| Abdallah Nasib | D | 85 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | 0 | 0.0 | 86.5 | 63.7 | 3 |
| Yazeed Abu Laila | G | 89 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | 0 | 0.0 | 87.7 | 64.3 | 3 |
| Team totals | 0 | 0.65 | | 10 | | 87.7 | |
Argentina — projected line vs season baseline (4-3-3)
| Player | Pos | Min | Proj G | Proj xG | Season xG/g | | Proj Sh | Season Sh/g | Proj Rtg | Season Rtg | Rec |
|---|
| Nico Paz | M | 21 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 100% | 2 | 0.2 | 85.9 | 15.6 | 13 |
| Julián Alvarez | F | 45 | 2 | 0.59 | 0.25 | 136% | 2 | 1.4 | 93.7 | 44.4 | 18 |
| Giuliano Simeone | M | 85 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.05 | 41% | 2 | 0.4 | 88.2 | 31.2 | 23 |
| Giovani Lo Celso | M | 76 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.01 | 380% | 2 | 0.2 | 88.8 | 21.6 | 13 |
| Leandro Paredes | M | 26 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.02 | 204% | 2 | 0.6 | 84.9 | 37.9 | 14 |
| Exequiel Palacios | M | 80 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 100% | 0 | 0.2 | 91.6 | 34.0 | 13 |
| Nicolás Tagliafico | D | 28 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 953% | 0 | 0.2 | 84.7 | 29.7 | 13 |
| Marcos Senesi | D | 91 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 100% | 0 | 0.1 | 85.9 | 26.9 | 11 |
| Nicolás Otamendi | D | 34 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 100% | 0 | 0.1 | 88.8 | 39.2 | 12 |
| Gonzalo Montiel | D | 48 | 0 | 1.14 | 0.07 | 1632% | 0 | 0.1 | 84.8 | 22.1 | 12 |
| Emiliano Martínez | G | 90 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | 0 | 0.0 | 91.8 | 48.4 | 20 |
| Team totals | 2 | 2.13 | | 10 | | 88.1 | |
Antagonist / tactical summary
Away midfield dictates play with ~53% possession expected (Nizar Al-Rashdan vs Nico Paz). Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.67, Away: 0.76. Home danger zone: Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run. Away danger zone: LW vs CB.
Midfield — possession 47.1% / 52.9%, dominance ratio 0.39, key duel: Nizar Al-Rashdan vs Nico Paz
Nizar Al-Rashdan xG 0.30Mohannad Abu Taha xG 0.08Noor Al-Rawabdeh xG 0.02Nico Paz xG 0.23Giuliano Simeone xG 0.07Julián Alvarez xG 0.41
Summary
Antagonist matchup analysis for Jordan vs Argentina. Most likely scoreline: 0-2. Lambdas derived from 7 home and 5 away individual player duels.
Tactical parity between 3-4-3 and 4-3-3. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Away midfield dictates play with ~53% possession expected (Nizar Al-Rashdan vs Nico Paz). Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.67, Away: 0.76. Home danger zone: Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run. Away danger zone: LW vs CB.
Algeria vs Austria
FIFA World Cup · 20260627 · 4-2-3-1 vs 4-2-3-1
Predicted 1-1Winner: DrawConfidence 0.71λ home/away 1.02 / 1.22Most-likely P 13.4%
Actual vs predicted: result not available yet (upcoming fixture).
Lambda decomposition (how the goal rates were built)
| Stage | Algeria λ | Austria λ |
|---|
| Pre-competitive-floor | 0.937 | 1.222 |
| Pre-calibration | 0.937 | 1.222 |
| Final λ | 1.020 | 1.222 |
competition calibration scale 1.0competition observed total goals 0.0quality gap applied Falsemismatch score pressure applied Falsecompetitive underdog floor applied Truestage discount 1.0
Scoreline distribution & markets
| Top 5 scorelines | P |
|---|
| 1-1 | 13.4% |
| 0-1 | 12.9% |
| 1-0 | 10.7% |
| 0-0 | 10.7% |
| 1-2 | 8.1% |
| Home win | 30.6% |
| Draw | 28.8% |
| Away win | 40.6% |
| Over 2.5 | 38.9% |
| BTTS yes | 45.2% |
Pregame fair line — favorite Austria (40.6%), fair total 2.24, fair spread -0.20
Projected players vs season baseline
Proj = projected for this match · Season = this season's per-game average from match data · deviation badge compares projected xG to the player's season xG/game.
Algeria — projected line vs season baseline (4-2-3-1)
| Player | Pos | Min | Proj G | Proj xG | Season xG/g | | Proj Sh | Season Sh/g | Proj Rtg | Season Rtg | Rec |
|---|
| Amine Gouiri | F | 78 | 1 | 0.31 | 0.20 | 52% | 1 | 1.2 | 85.8 | 67.0 | 6 |
| Hicham Boudaoui | M | 56 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 100% | 2 | 0.2 | 83.8 | 59.0 | 8 |
| Riyad Mahrez | M | 60 | 0 | 0.17 | 0.25 | 32% | 2 | 1.8 | 91.0 | 64.9 | 8 |
| Nabil Bentaleb | M | 64 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.02 | 46% | 1 | 0.6 | 83.8 | 70.6 | 8 |
| Ibrahim Maza | F | 88 | 0 | 0.15 | 0.24 | 38% | 2 | 2.2 | 77.7 | 50.6 | 12 |
| Rayan Aït-Nouri | D | 81 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.02 | 161% | 0 | 0.2 | 87.9 | 44.2 | 12 |
| Ramy Bensebaini | D | 90 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.09 | ok | 1 | 0.8 | 86.4 | 73.4 | 5 |
| Aïssa Mandi | D | 86 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.01 | 660% | 0 | 0.3 | 82.1 | 52.9 | 13 |
| Rafik Belghali | M | 88 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.02 | ok | 0 | 0.4 | 72.3 | 46.4 | 10 |
| Farès Chaïbi | M | 80 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.08 | ok | 2 | 1.6 | 80.6 | 57.9 | 8 |
| Luca Zidane | G | 89 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | 0 | 0.0 | 77.4 | 47.5 | 4 |
| Team totals | 1 | 1.02 | | 11 | | 82.6 | |
Austria — projected line vs season baseline (4-2-3-1)
| Player | Pos | Min | Proj G | Proj xG | Season xG/g | | Proj Sh | Season Sh/g | Proj Rtg | Season Rtg | Rec |
|---|
| Romano Schmid | M | 78 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.04 | ok | 2 | 0.8 | 85.0 | 61.0 | 8 |
| Xaver Schlager | M | 76 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 100% | 1 | 0.3 | 86.7 | 36.6 | 11 |
| Nicolas Seiwald | M | 86 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 100% | 0 | 0.5 | 84.5 | 60.1 | 8 |
| Konrad Laimer | D | 87 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.04 | ok | 0 | 0.2 | 88.5 | 48.9 | 16 |
| David Alaba | D | 62 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 196% | 0 | 0.2 | 89.3 | 40.9 | 12 |
| Kevin Danso | D | 65 | 0 | 0.12 | 0.03 | 291% | 0 | 0.5 | 85.9 | 49.7 | 12 |
| Stefan Posch | D | 75 | 0 | 0.14 | 0.05 | 214% | 1 | 0.8 | 84.9 | 54.1 | 8 |
| Alexander Schlager | G | 89 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | 0 | 0.0 | 79.7 | 62.7 | 10 |
| Marko Arnautović | F | 39 | 1 | 0.55 | 0.27 | 107% | 2 | 0.9 | 93.8 | 49.9 | 7 |
| Marcel Sabitzer | M | 89 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.05 | 67% | 2 | 0.8 | 86.8 | 54.7 | 9 |
| Michael Gregoritsch | F | 79 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.25 | 54% | 2 | 1.0 | 81.5 | 50.4 | 8 |
| Team totals | 1 | 1.22 | | 11 | | 86.1 | |
Antagonist / tactical summary
Midfield is evenly contested — Farès Chaïbi vs Nicolas Seiwald will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.66, Away: 0.83. Home danger zone: Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle.
Midfield — possession 49.0% / 51.0%, dominance ratio 0.48, key duel: Farès Chaïbi vs Nicolas Seiwald
Riyad Mahrez xG 0.22Farès Chaïbi xG 0.10Hicham Boudaoui xG 0.13Marcel Sabitzer xG 0.07Michael Gregoritsch xG 0.12Romano Schmid xG 0.02
Summary
Antagonist matchup analysis for Algeria vs Austria. Most likely scoreline: 1-1. Lambdas derived from 5 home and 5 away individual player duels.
Tactical parity between 4-2-3-1 and 4-2-3-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Midfield is evenly contested — Farès Chaïbi vs Nicolas Seiwald will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.66, Away: 0.83. Home danger zone: Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle.
Panama vs England
FIFA World Cup · 20260627 · 5-4-1 vs 4-2-3-1
Predicted 0-3Winner: DrawConfidence 0.89λ home/away 0.69 / 3.07Most-likely P 11.2%
Actual vs predicted: result not available yet (upcoming fixture).
Lambda decomposition (how the goal rates were built)
| Stage | Panama λ | England λ |
|---|
| Pre-mismatch | 0.725 | 2.663 |
| Pre-calibration | 0.725 | 2.663 |
| Final λ | 0.689 | 3.074 |
competition calibration scale 1.0competition observed total goals 0.0quality gap applied Truemismatch score pressure applied Truecompetitive underdog floor applied Falsestage discount 1.0
Scoreline distribution & markets
| Top 5 scorelines | P |
|---|
| 0-3 | 11.2% |
| 0-2 | 11.0% |
| 0-4 | 8.6% |
| 1-3 | 7.8% |
| 1-2 | 7.6% |
| Home win | 5.3% |
| Draw | 10.6% |
| Away win | 84.1% |
| Over 2.5 | 72.5% |
| BTTS yes | 47.5% |
Pregame fair line — favorite England (84.1%), fair total 3.76, fair spread -2.38
Projected players vs season baseline
Proj = projected for this match · Season = this season's per-game average from match data · deviation badge compares projected xG to the player's season xG/game.
Panama — projected line vs season baseline (5-4-1)
| Player | Pos | Min | Proj G | Proj xG | Season xG/g | | Proj Sh | Season Sh/g | Proj Rtg | Season Rtg | Rec |
|---|
| José Fajardo | F | 56 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.01 | 326% | 2 | 0.4 | 74.5 | 32.7 | 14 |
| José Luis Rodríguez | M | 83 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.11 | 65% | 1 | 0.8 | 84.1 | 50.6 | 5 |
| Carlos Harvey | M | 85 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.05 | ok | 1 | 0.8 | 71.2 | 31.8 | 6 |
| Cristian Martínez | M | 75 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.02 | 88% | 1 | 0.2 | 87.6 | 49.8 | 4 |
| Yoel Bárcenas | M | 88 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.20 | 76% | 1 | 1.2 | 87.1 | 69.2 | 5 |
| Andrés Andrade | D | 89 | 0 | 0.16 | 0.03 | 434% | 0 | 0.2 | 76.3 | 68.9 | 8 |
| César Blackman | D | 89 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 275% | 1 | 0.5 | 86.6 | 51.8 | 8 |
| José Córdoba | D | 90 | 0 | 0.02 | - | n/a | 0 | 0.0 | 74.4 | 66.0 | 3 |
| Jiovany Ramos | D | 84 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.01 | 710% | 1 | 0.2 | 90.0 | 40.8 | 12 |
| Amir Murillo | D | 88 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.07 | ok | 1 | 1.0 | 83.0 | 47.9 | 7 |
| Orlando Mosquera | G | 89 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | 0 | 0.0 | 76.7 | 66.8 | 5 |
| Team totals | 0 | 0.69 | | 9 | | 81.0 | |
England — projected line vs season baseline (4-2-3-1)
| Player | Pos | Min | Proj G | Proj xG | Season xG/g | | Proj Sh | Season Sh/g | Proj Rtg | Season Rtg | Rec |
|---|
| Harry Kane | F | 91 | 2 | 0.88 | 0.46 | 94% | 3 | 2.6 | 96.7 | 63.5 | 17 |
| Marcus Rashford | F | 17 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.11 | 38% | 2 | 1.2 | 87.1 | 35.0 | 19 |
| Jude Bellingham | M | 76 | 0 | 0.29 | 0.18 | 65% | 2 | 1.1 | 97.3 | 57.3 | 16 |
| Noni Madueke | F | 69 | 0 | 0.12 | 0.04 | 226% | 3 | 0.6 | 87.1 | 35.1 | 22 |
| Elliot Anderson | M | 86 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.04 | 160% | 2 | 1.0 | 87.4 | 57.3 | 18 |
| Nico O'Reilly | D | 66 | 0 | 0.31 | 0.12 | 163% | 2 | 0.7 | 79.7 | 37.8 | 15 |
| John Stones | D | 78 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 100% | 0 | 0.1 | 88.4 | 23.5 | 14 |
| Marc Guéhi | D | 59 | 0 | 0.21 | 0.02 | 853% | 1 | 0.2 | 89.7 | 53.1 | 16 |
| Djed Spence | D | 40 | 0 | 0.64 | 0.05 | 1302% | 0 | 0.2 | 85.1 | 61.8 | 13 |
| Jordan Pickford | G | 91 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | 0 | 0.0 | 90.5 | 42.9 | 14 |
| Kobbie Mainoo | M | 92 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.02 | 302% | 0 | 0.2 | 84.6 | 17.4 | 12 |
| Team totals | 3 | 3.07 | | 15 | | 88.5 | |
Antagonist / tactical summary
Away midfield dictates play with ~56% possession expected (José Luis Rodríguez vs Jude Bellingham). Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.34, Away: 0.87. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle.
Midfield — possession 44.4% / 55.6%, dominance ratio 0.33, key duel: José Luis Rodríguez vs Jude Bellingham
José Fajardo xG 0.09José Luis Rodríguez xG 0.05Yoel Bárcenas xG 0.05Elliot Anderson xG 0.09Harry Kane xG 0.65Marcus Rashford xG 0.05
Summary
Antagonist matchup analysis for Panama vs England. Most likely scoreline: 0-3. Lambdas derived from 6 home and 4 away individual player duels.
Tactical parity between 5-4-1 and 4-2-3-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Away midfield dictates play with ~56% possession expected (José Luis Rodríguez vs Jude Bellingham). Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.34, Away: 0.87. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle.
Croatia vs Ghana
FIFA World Cup · 20260627 · 4-2-3-1 vs 4-3-3
Predicted 1-1Winner: DrawConfidence 0.74λ home/away 1.18 / 1.51Most-likely P 12.2%
Actual vs predicted: result not available yet (upcoming fixture).
Lambda decomposition (how the goal rates were built)
| Stage | Croatia λ | Ghana λ |
|---|
| Pre-competitive-floor | 1.184 | 1.512 |
| Pre-calibration | 1.184 | 1.512 |
| Final λ | 1.184 | 1.512 |
competition calibration scale 1.0competition observed total goals 0.0quality gap applied Falsemismatch score pressure applied Falsecompetitive underdog floor applied Falsestage discount 1.0
Scoreline distribution & markets
| Top 5 scorelines | P |
|---|
| 1-1 | 12.2% |
| 0-1 | 10.1% |
| 1-2 | 9.1% |
| 1-0 | 7.9% |
| 0-2 | 7.7% |
| Home win | 29.7% |
| Draw | 25.6% |
| Away win | 44.7% |
| Over 2.5 | 50.5% |
| BTTS yes | 54.2% |
Pregame fair line — favorite Ghana (44.7%), fair total 2.70, fair spread -0.33
Projected players vs season baseline
Proj = projected for this match · Season = this season's per-game average from match data · deviation badge compares projected xG to the player's season xG/game.
Croatia — projected line vs season baseline (4-2-3-1)
| Player | Pos | Min | Proj G | Proj xG | Season xG/g | | Proj Sh | Season Sh/g | Proj Rtg | Season Rtg | Rec |
|---|
| Ante Budimir | F | 55 | 1 | 0.52 | 0.24 | 116% | 2 | 1.6 | 89.4 | 34.8 | 11 |
| Mario Pašalić | M | 49 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.30 | 90% | 2 | 1.6 | 86.7 | 66.3 | 9 |
| Andrej Kramarić | F | 29 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.24 | 98% | 1 | 1.1 | 87.5 | 58.3 | 7 |
| Martin Baturina | M | 83 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.06 | ok | 2 | 1.1 | 85.7 | 62.6 | 8 |
| Luka Modrić | M | 62 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.01 | ok | 1 | 0.3 | 89.7 | 59.3 | 6 |
| Ivan Perišić | M | 87 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 100% | 2 | 0.8 | 87.9 | 55.6 | 8 |
| Duje Ćaleta-Car | D | 83 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 393% | 0 | 0.2 | 80.6 | 11.3 | 6 |
| Josip Šutalo | D | 90 | 0 | 0.17 | 0.03 | 413% | 0 | 0.2 | 84.8 | 68.2 | 5 |
| Josip Stanišić | D | 86 | 0 | 0.26 | 0.08 | 210% | 0 | 0.4 | 85.2 | 62.4 | 14 |
| Dominik Livaković | G | 90 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | 0 | 0.0 | 87.1 | 69.2 | 9 |
| Mateo Kovačić | M | 49 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.03 | ok | 0 | 0.5 | 89.7 | 39.9 | 12 |
| Team totals | 1 | 1.18 | | 10 | | 86.8 | |
Ghana — projected line vs season baseline (4-3-3)
| Player | Pos | Min | Proj G | Proj xG | Season xG/g | | Proj Sh | Season Sh/g | Proj Rtg | Season Rtg | Rec |
|---|
| Gideon Mensah | D | 89 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | 0 | 0.0 | 81.2 | 70.4 | 7 |
| Jerome Opoku | D | 87 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | 0 | 0.0 | 79.2 | 59.3 | 7 |
| Jonas Adjei Adjetey | D | 90 | 0 | 0.15 | 0.02 | 604% | 1 | 0.3 | 94.1 | 34.8 | 6 |
| Marvin Senaya | D | 77 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.01 | 380% | 0 | 0.3 | 76.0 | 58.7 | 7 |
| Benjamin Asare | G | 67 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | 0 | 0.0 | 86.7 | 54.0 | 4 |
| Caleb Yirenkyi | M | 90 | 1 | 0.81 | 0.14 | 469% | 2 | 0.3 | 73.9 | 38.4 | 7 |
| Kwasi Sibo | M | 51 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | 2 | 0.0 | 75.6 | 43.5 | 6 |
| Thomas Partey | M | 77 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 100% | 1 | 0.8 | 90.2 | 54.3 | 6 |
| Iñaki Williams | M | 70 | 0 | 0.15 | 0.11 | ok | 2 | 0.8 | 89.2 | 25.4 | 13 |
| Antoine Semenyo | M | 88 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.06 | 37% | 1 | 1.0 | 86.6 | 48.0 | 14 |
| Jordan Ayew | F | 77 | 0 | 0.24 | - | n/a | 2 | 0.0 | 79.9 | 66.5 | 4 |
| Team totals | 1 | 1.51 | | 11 | | 83.0 | |
Antagonist / tactical summary
Midfield is evenly contested — Martin Baturina vs Antoine Semenyo will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.82, Away: 1.37. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel.
Midfield — possession 49.4% / 50.6%, dominance ratio 0.48, key duel: Martin Baturina vs Antoine Semenyo
Martin Baturina xG 0.05Ivan Perišić xG 0.21Mario Pašalić xG 0.03Jordan Ayew xG 0.20Iñaki Williams xG 0.11Kwasi Sibo xG 0.19
Summary
Antagonist matchup analysis for Croatia vs Ghana. Most likely scoreline: 1-1. Lambdas derived from 5 home and 5 away individual player duels.
Tactical parity between 4-2-3-1 and 4-3-3. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Midfield is evenly contested — Martin Baturina vs Antoine Semenyo will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.82, Away: 1.37. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel.
Colombia vs Portugal
FIFA World Cup · 20260627 · 4-3-3 vs 4-2-3-1
Predicted 0-2Winner: DrawConfidence 0.88λ home/away 0.77 / 2.96Most-likely P 10.6%
Actual vs predicted: result not available yet (upcoming fixture).
Lambda decomposition (how the goal rates were built)
| Stage | Colombia λ | Portugal λ |
|---|
| Pre-calibration | 0.767 | 2.958 |
| Final λ | 0.767 | 2.958 |
competition calibration scale 1.0competition observed total goals 0.0quality gap applied Truemismatch score pressure applied Falsecompetitive underdog floor applied Falsestage discount 1.0
Scoreline distribution & markets
| Top 5 scorelines | P |
|---|
| 0-2 | 10.6% |
| 0-3 | 10.4% |
| 1-2 | 8.1% |
| 1-3 | 8.0% |
| 0-4 | 7.7% |
| Home win | 6.7% |
| Draw | 11.9% |
| Away win | 81.4% |
| Over 2.5 | 71.9% |
| BTTS yes | 50.8% |
Pregame fair line — favorite Portugal (81.4%), fair total 3.73, fair spread -2.19
Projected players vs season baseline
Proj = projected for this match · Season = this season's per-game average from match data · deviation badge compares projected xG to the player's season xG/game.
Colombia — projected line vs season baseline (4-3-3)
| Player | Pos | Min | Proj G | Proj xG | Season xG/g | | Proj Sh | Season Sh/g | Proj Rtg | Season Rtg | Rec |
|---|
| Luis Díaz | M | 91 | 0 | 0.16 | 0.28 | 43% | 2 | 2.2 | 92.7 | 52.4 | 18 |
| Luis Javier Suárez | F | 74 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.32 | 88% | 2 | 2.5 | 83.8 | 66.3 | 12 |
| Jhon Arias | M | 80 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.17 | 62% | 2 | 1.4 | 85.0 | 41.4 | 14 |
| Jefferson Lerma | M | 85 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.02 | 189% | 2 | 0.5 | 83.9 | 48.9 | 11 |
| James Rodríguez | M | 67 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.03 | ok | 2 | 0.5 | 96.0 | 26.0 | 11 |
| Gustavo Puerta | M | 85 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.05 | ok | 3 | 1.6 | 74.8 | 40.0 | 9 |
| Johan Mojica | D | 88 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.03 | 66% | 1 | 0.4 | 84.9 | 27.0 | 10 |
| Jhon Lucumí | D | 89 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.01 | 380% | 0 | 0.1 | 83.0 | 61.3 | 9 |
| Davinson Sánchez | D | 90 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.06 | ok | 1 | 0.8 | 89.1 | 54.6 | 9 |
| Daniel Muñoz | M | 87 | 0 | 0.15 | 0.06 | 158% | 1 | 0.4 | 88.5 | 38.4 | 15 |
| Camilo Vargas | G | 89 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | 0 | 0.0 | 88.6 | 64.4 | 9 |
| Team totals | 0 | 0.77 | | 18 | | 86.4 | |
Portugal — projected line vs season baseline (4-2-3-1)
| Player | Pos | Min | Proj G | Proj xG | Season xG/g | | Proj Sh | Season Sh/g | Proj Rtg | Season Rtg | Rec |
|---|
| João Neves | M | 82 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.05 | ok | 1 | 0.8 | 92.6 | 66.1 | 15 |
| Nuno Mendes | D | 82 | 0 | 0.20 | 0.02 | 821% | 1 | 0.5 | 93.8 | 65.9 | 12 |
| Renato Veiga | D | 91 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 100% | 0 | 0.2 | 83.4 | 41.4 | 12 |
| Rúben Dias | D | 89 | 0 | 0.28 | 0.01 | 2207% | 0 | 0.1 | 93.8 | 32.5 | 15 |
| João Cancelo | D | 67 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.02 | 169% | 1 | 0.5 | 90.8 | 48.1 | 17 |
| Diogo Costa | G | 92 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | 0 | 0.0 | 91.1 | 64.0 | 13 |
| Vitinha | M | 86 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.03 | 34% | 1 | 0.7 | 96.7 | 62.5 | 15 |
| Pedro Neto | M | 66 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 100% | 2 | 0.3 | 87.2 | 46.8 | 13 |
| Bruno Fernandes | M | 92 | 0 | 0.13 | 0.11 | ok | 2 | 1.4 | 95.2 | 51.2 | 12 |
| João Félix | F | 73 | 0 | 0.36 | 0.20 | 76% | 2 | 1.4 | 86.0 | 40.1 | 11 |
| Cristiano Ronaldo | F | 90 | 2 | 1.57 | 0.54 | 187% | 2 | 3.2 | 92.3 | 63.4 | 9 |
| Team totals | 2 | 2.96 | | 12 | | 91.2 | |
Antagonist / tactical summary
Away midfield dictates play with ~53% possession expected (Luis Díaz vs João Neves). Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.79, Away: 1.79. Home danger zone: Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel. Away danger zone: Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle.
Midfield — possession 47.1% / 52.9%, dominance ratio 0.43, key duel: Luis Díaz vs João Neves
Luis Javier Suárez xG 0.07James Rodríguez xG 0.06Jefferson Lerma xG 0.08Bruno Fernandes xG 0.12Cristiano Ronaldo xG 1.10Pedro Neto xG 0.28
Summary
Antagonist matchup analysis for Colombia vs Portugal. Most likely scoreline: 0-2. Lambdas derived from 5 home and 5 away individual player duels.
Tactical parity between 4-3-3 and 4-2-3-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Away midfield dictates play with ~53% possession expected (Luis Díaz vs João Neves). Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.79, Away: 1.79. Home danger zone: Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel. Away danger zone: Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle.
DR Congo vs Uzbekistan
FIFA World Cup · 20260627 · 5-3-2 vs 3-4-2-1
Predicted 0-0Winner: DrawConfidence 0.69λ home/away 1.02 / 0.94Most-likely P 14.2%
Actual vs predicted: result not available yet (upcoming fixture).
Lambda decomposition (how the goal rates were built)
| Stage | DR Congo λ | Uzbekistan λ |
|---|
| Pre-competitive-floor | 0.806 | 0.944 |
| Pre-calibration | 0.806 | 0.944 |
| Final λ | 1.020 | 0.944 |
competition calibration scale 1.0competition observed total goals 0.0quality gap applied Falsemismatch score pressure applied Falsecompetitive underdog floor applied Truestage discount 1.0
Scoreline distribution & markets
| Top 5 scorelines | P |
|---|
| 0-0 | 14.2% |
| 1-0 | 14.2% |
| 1-1 | 13.7% |
| 0-1 | 13.1% |
| 2-0 | 7.3% |
| Home win | 36.3% |
| Draw | 31.4% |
| Away win | 32.3% |
| Over 2.5 | 31.4% |
| BTTS yes | 39.2% |
Pregame fair line — favorite DR Congo (36.3%), fair total 1.96, fair spread 0.08
Projected players vs season baseline
Proj = projected for this match · Season = this season's per-game average from match data · deviation badge compares projected xG to the player's season xG/game.
DR Congo — projected line vs season baseline (5-3-2)
| Player | Pos | Min | Proj G | Proj xG | Season xG/g | | Proj Sh | Season Sh/g | Proj Rtg | Season Rtg | Rec |
|---|
| Cédric Bakambu | F | 64 | 0 | 0.12 | 0.03 | 341% | 2 | 0.4 | 83.5 | 32.0 | 10 |
| Yoane Wissa | F | 78 | 0 | 0.24 | 0.21 | ok | 2 | 0.9 | 89.0 | 40.2 | 12 |
| Edo Kayembe | M | 73 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.01 | 349% | 2 | 0.5 | 77.4 | 48.5 | 4 |
| Samuel Moutoussamy | M | 84 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.02 | 269% | 1 | 0.6 | 89.5 | 67.0 | 8 |
| Ngal'ayel Mukau | M | 53 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 100% | 2 | 0.3 | 80.6 | 65.6 | 9 |
| Arthur Masuaku | D | 73 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | 0 | 0.0 | 82.0 | 49.1 | 7 |
| Steve Kapuadi | D | 89 | 0 | 0.36 | 0.05 | 661% | 0 | 0.2 | 77.3 | 31.8 | 4 |
| Axel Tuanzebe | D | 90 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | 0 | 0.0 | 79.5 | 66.1 | 7 |
| Chancel Mbemba | D | 89 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.01 | 538% | 0 | 0.2 | 88.5 | 45.0 | 9 |
| Aaron Wan-Bissaka | D | 88 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | 0 | 0.0 | 86.8 | 59.1 | 7 |
| Lionel Mpasi Nzau | G | 89 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | 0 | 0.0 | 86.7 | 39.0 | 7 |
| Team totals | 0 | 1.02 | | 9 | | 83.7 | |
Uzbekistan — projected line vs season baseline (3-4-2-1)
| Player | Pos | Min | Proj G | Proj xG | Season xG/g | | Proj Sh | Season Sh/g | Proj Rtg | Season Rtg | Rec |
|---|
| Otabek Shukurov | M | 89 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.02 | 237% | 1 | 0.7 | 88.5 | 66.0 | 3 |
| Odiljon Khamrobekov | M | 45 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.02 | 250% | 2 | 0.3 | 87.7 | 39.7 | 3 |
| Bekhruz Karimov | D | 90 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 1084% | 1 | 0.2 | 84.3 | 12.5 | 10 |
| Rustam Ashurmatov | D | 83 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | 0 | 0.0 | 87.0 | 62.0 | 3 |
| Abdulla Abdullaev | M | 90 | 0 | 0.06 | - | n/a | 2 | 0.0 | 87.5 | 21.3 | 6 |
| Abdukodir Khusanov | D | 92 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.01 | 358% | 0 | 0.3 | 83.6 | 45.5 | 10 |
| Abduvokhid Nematov | G | 89 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ok | 0 | 0.0 | 93.4 | 37.4 | 11 |
| Sherzod Nasrullaev | D | 56 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.01 | 1142% | 0 | 0.1 | 88.4 | 31.5 | 15 |
| Abbosbek Fayzullaev | M | 68 | 0 | 0.42 | 0.14 | 200% | 2 | 0.4 | 89.9 | 38.9 | 9 |
| Eldor Shomurodov | F | 89 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.33 | 67% | 2 | 1.5 | 80.6 | 68.0 | 6 |
| Azizjon Ganiev | M | 90 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 840% | 1 | 0.2 | 87.8 | 33.5 | 4 |
| Team totals | 0 | 0.94 | | 11 | | 87.2 | |
Antagonist / tactical summary
Midfield is evenly contested — Ngal'ayel Mukau vs Abbosbek Fayzullaev will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.47, Away: 0.66. Home danger zone: Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest. Away danger zone: Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel.
Midfield — possession 50.0% / 50.0%, dominance ratio 0.50, key duel: Ngal'ayel Mukau vs Abbosbek Fayzullaev
Arthur Masuaku xG 0.07Chancel Mbemba xG 0.03Edo Kayembe xG 0.03Otabek Shukurov xG 0.05Abdulla Abdullaev xG 0.05Abbosbek Fayzullaev xG 0.36
Summary
Antagonist matchup analysis for DR Congo vs Uzbekistan. Most likely scoreline: 0-0. Lambdas derived from 6 home and 7 away individual player duels.
Tactical parity between 5-3-2 and 3-4-2-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Midfield is evenly contested — Ngal'ayel Mukau vs Abbosbek Fayzullaev will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.47, Away: 0.66. Home danger zone: Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest. Away danger zone: Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel.
Generated 2026-09-04 22:27:55 UTC · Soccer prediction reporting