Soccer predictions: actual data vs predicted data

Slate 20260628 · 1 match(es)

How to read this report. Each match shows the model's headline prediction, the stage-by-stage lambda (goal-rate) build, both teams' standing/form inputs, and every starter's projected line next to their real season baseline. A moderate / large deviation badge flags a projection that strays far from the player's season form — a quick way to spot when the inputs look right but a projection does not. When the real result is known an actual-vs-predicted banner appears.

All matches overview

Match	Score	Winner	H / D / A	O2.5	BTTS	Conf	λ H/A	Actual	Result
South Africa vs Canada FIFA World Cup	0-1	Draw	31.6% / 29.3% / 39.2%	37.8%	44.5%	0.71	1.02 / 1.18	-	pending

Match detail

South Africa vs Canada

FIFA World Cup · 20260628 · 4-2-3-1 vs 4-4-2

Predicted 0-1Winner: DrawConfidence 0.71λ home/away 1.02 / 1.18Most-likely P 12.9%

Actual vs predicted: result not available yet (upcoming fixture).

Lambda decomposition (how the goal rates were built)

Stage	South Africa λ	Canada λ
Pre-competitive-floor	1.025	1.176
Pre-calibration	1.025	1.176
Final λ	1.025	1.176

competition calibration scale 1.0competition observed total goals 0.0quality gap applied Truemismatch score pressure applied Falsecompetitive underdog floor applied Falsestage discount 0.92

Scoreline distribution & markets

Top 5 scorelines	P
0-1	12.9%
1-0	11.2%
1-2	7.8%
0-2	7.6%
2-1	6.8%

Home win	31.6%
Draw	29.3%
Away win	39.2%
Over 2.5	37.8%
BTTS yes	44.5%

Pregame fair line — favorite Canada (39.2%), fair total 2.20, fair spread -0.15

Projected players vs season baseline

Proj = projected for this match · Season = this season's per-game average from match data · deviation badge compares projected xG to the player's season xG/game.

South Africa — projected line vs season baseline (4-2-3-1)

Player	Pos	Min	Proj xG	Season xG/g		Proj Sh	Season Sh/g	Proj Rtg	Season Rtg	Rec
Evidence Makgopa	F	43	0.06	0.16	60%	2	1.0	91.5	66.3	7
Oswin Appollis	M	80	0.08	0.16	47%	2	1.8	87.9	53.6	9
Relebohile Mofokeng	M	84	0.11	0.08	39%	2	1.8	88.9	45.7	9
Thapelo Maseko	M	74	0.57	0.09	552%	2	1.3	88.5	35.0	6
Teboho Mokoena	M	84	0.08	0.14	43%	1	1.4	89.9	61.3	7
Thalente Mbatha	M	75	0.03	0.04	ok	1	1.4	87.8	69.6	7
Aubrey Modiba	D	83	0.06	0.07	ok	2	1.7	88.5	68.3	7
Mbekezeli Mbokazi	D	83	0.02	0.01	240%	1	0.4	89.9	46.9	9
Ime Okon	D	88	0.00	0.00	100%	0	0.2	73.7	68.0	4
Khuliso Mudau	D	88	0.00	-	n/a	0	0.0	91.5	66.7	6
Ronwen Williams	G	88	0.00	-	n/a		0.0	88.4	67.4	7
Team totals			1.02			13			87.9

Canada — projected line vs season baseline (4-4-2)

Player	Pos	Min	Proj G	Proj xG	Season xG/g		Proj Sh	Season Sh/g	Proj Rtg	Season Rtg	Rec
Cyle Larin	F	67	0	0.20	0.38	48%	2	1.8	83.4	54.0	5
Jonathan David	F	61	1	0.28	0.38	ok	2	2.2	88.8	58.2	8
Ali Ahmed	M	52	0	0.00	0.05	100%	2	0.4	74.6	55.4	5
Nathan-Dylan Saliba	M	68	0	0.12	0.06	108%	2	0.8	75.0	54.9	8
Stephen Eustaquio	M	70	0	0.00	0.02	100%	0	0.6	84.0	57.4	9
Tajon Buchanan	M	67	0	0.06	0.07	ok	2	0.6	80.7	43.2	12
Richie Laryea	D	81	0	0.14	0.04	301%	0	0.2	79.2	45.6	8
Derek Cornelius	D	74	0	0.11	0.15	ok	1	1.0	80.3	52.0	5
Luc De Fougerolles	D	73	0	0.03	0.02	ok	0	0.4	64.7	67.4	7
Alistair Johnston	D	84	0	0.06	0.05	31%	1	0.9	84.8	68.9	9
Maxime Crépeau	G	88	0	0.00	-	n/a		0.0	75.5	52.6	9
Team totals			1	1.18			13			79.2

Antagonist / tactical summary

Midfield is evenly contested — Teboho Mokoena vs Tajon Buchanan will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 1.13, Away: 0.54. Home danger zone: Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle.

Midfield — possession 49.0% / 51.0%, dominance ratio 0.48, key duel: Teboho Mokoena vs Tajon Buchanan

Oswin Appollis xG 0.11Thapelo Maseko xG 0.72Relebohile Mofokeng xG 0.12Cyle Larin xG 0.19Ali Ahmed xG 0.15Tajon Buchanan xG 0.07

Summary

Antagonist matchup analysis for South Africa vs Canada. Most likely scoreline: 0-1. Lambdas derived from 5 home and 4 away individual player duels.

4-2-3-1 creates structural superiority against 4-4-2. Home team should exploit wider spaces and numerical advantages in transition. Midfield is evenly contested — Teboho Mokoena vs Tajon Buchanan will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 1.13, Away: 0.54. Home danger zone: Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle.

Generated 2026-09-04 22:27:55 UTC · Soccer prediction reporting