Soccer predictions: actual data vs predicted data
Slate 20260630 · 4 match(es)
How to read this report. Each match shows the model's headline prediction, the stage-by-stage lambda (goal-rate) build, both teams' standing/form inputs, and every starter's projected line next to their real season baseline. A moderate / large deviation badge flags a projection that strays far from the player's season form — a quick way to spot when the inputs look right but a projection does not. When the real result is known an actual-vs-predicted banner appears.
All matches overview
| Match | Score | Winner | H / D / A | O2.5 | BTTS | Conf | λ H/A | Actual | Result |
|---|
| Côte d'Ivoire vs 2I FIFA World Cup | 2-0 | Draw | 73.0% / 17.5% / 9.5% | 54.4% | 42.6% | 0.82 | 2.21 / 0.65 | - | pending |
| Mexico vs 3C/3E/3F/3H/3I FIFA World Cup | 1-1 | Mexico | 53.6% / 24.3% / 22.1% | 50.4% | 51.6% | 0.76 | 1.78 / 1.05 | - | pending |
| Côte d'Ivoire vs Norway FIFA World Cup | 0-1 | Norway | 30.7% / 30.0% / 39.3% | 35.2% | 42.3% | 0.7 | 1.02 / 1.20 | - | pending |
| France vs Sweden FIFA World Cup | 1-1 | France | 56.5% / 23.0% / 20.5% | 53.4% | 52.9% | 0.77 | 1.91 / 1.05 | - | pending |
Match detail
Côte d'Ivoire vs 2I
FIFA World Cup · 20260630 · 3-4-2-1 vs 4-4-2
Predicted 2-0Winner: DrawConfidence 0.82λ home/away 2.21 / 0.65Most-likely P 14.0%
Actual vs predicted: result not available yet (upcoming fixture).
Lambda decomposition (how the goal rates were built)
| Stage | Côte d'Ivoire λ | 2I λ |
|---|
| Pre-mismatch | 1.853 | 0.650 |
| Pre-calibration | 1.853 | 0.598 |
| Final λ | 2.206 | 0.650 |
competition calibration scale 1.0competition observed total goals 0.0quality gap applied Truemismatch score pressure applied Truecompetitive underdog floor applied Falsestage discount 0.92
Scoreline distribution & markets
| Top 5 scorelines | P |
|---|
| 2-0 | 14.0% |
| 1-0 | 12.7% |
| 3-0 | 10.3% |
| 2-1 | 9.1% |
| 3-1 | 6.7% |
| Home win | 73.0% |
| Draw | 17.5% |
| Away win | 9.5% |
| Over 2.5 | 54.4% |
| BTTS yes | 42.6% |
Pregame fair line — favorite Côte d'Ivoire (73.0%), fair total 2.86, fair spread 1.56
Projected players vs season baseline
Proj = projected for this match · Season = this season's per-game average from match data · deviation badge compares projected xG to the player's season xG/game.
Côte d'Ivoire — projected line vs season baseline (3-4-2-1)
| Player | Pos | Min | Proj G | Proj xG | Season xG/g | | Proj Sh | Season Sh/g | Proj Rtg | Season Rtg | Rec |
|---|
| Yahia Fofana | G | 89 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | | 0.0 | 82.6 | 67.9 | 7 |
| Ousmane Diomande | D | 81 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.01 | 1455% | 0 | 0.2 | 87.3 | 30.7 | 13 |
| Evan Ndicka | D | 78 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.01 | 676% | 1 | 0.3 | 87.8 | 27.7 | 7 |
| Wilfried Singo | D | 84 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.03 | 205% | 1 | 0.6 | 87.1 | 44.7 | 9 |
| Amad Diallo | M | 90 | 0 | 0.35 | 0.13 | 167% | 2 | 1.2 | 94.4 | 46.9 | 11 |
| Bazoumana Touré | M | 82 | 1 | 0.40 | 0.04 | 894% | 2 | 0.7 | 77.1 | 29.7 | 12 |
| Simon Adingra | M | 79 | 0 | 0.26 | 0.01 | 1776% | 1 | 0.4 | 82.6 | 17.2 | 11 |
| Ibrahim Sangaré | M | 65 | 0 | 0.12 | 0.00 | 3133% | 1 | 0.1 | 84.2 | 50.9 | 14 |
| Yan Diomande | F | 93 | 1 | 0.40 | 0.07 | 464% | 3 | 0.6 | 73.5 | 35.9 | 14 |
| Ange-Yoan Bonny | F | 55 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 92% | 3 | 0.3 | 92.9 | 64.0 | 7 |
| Evann Guessand | F | 51 | 0 | 0.15 | 0.03 | 458% | 0 | 0.1 | 86.0 | 24.6 | 8 |
| Team totals | 2 | 2.21 | | 15 | | 85.0 | |
2I — projected line vs season baseline (4-4-2)
| Player | Pos | Min | Proj G | Proj xG | Season xG/g | | Proj Sh | Season Sh/g | Proj Rtg | Season Rtg | Rec |
|---|
| 2I G1 | G | 90 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | | - | 6.8 | - | 0 |
| 2I D1 | D | 90 | 0 | 0.02 | - | n/a | 0 | - | 6.8 | - | 0 |
| 2I D2 | D | 90 | 0 | 0.02 | - | n/a | 0 | - | 6.8 | - | 0 |
| 2I D3 | D | 90 | 0 | 0.02 | - | n/a | 0 | - | 6.8 | - | 0 |
| 2I D4 | D | 90 | 0 | 0.02 | - | n/a | 0 | - | 6.8 | - | 0 |
| 2I M1 | M | 90 | 0 | 0.08 | - | n/a | 1 | - | 6.9 | - | 0 |
| 2I M2 | M | 90 | 0 | 0.08 | - | n/a | 1 | - | 6.9 | - | 0 |
| 2I M3 | M | 90 | 0 | 0.08 | - | n/a | 1 | - | 6.9 | - | 0 |
| 2I M4 | M | 90 | 0 | 0.08 | - | n/a | 1 | - | 6.9 | - | 0 |
| 2I F1 | F | 90 | 0 | 0.14 | - | n/a | 2 | - | 6.9 | - | 0 |
| 2I F2 | F | 90 | 0 | 0.14 | - | n/a | 2 | - | 6.9 | - | 0 |
| Team totals | 0 | 0.65 | | 8 | | 6.8 | |
Antagonist / tactical summary
Home midfield dominates with ~54% possession expected (Amad Diallo vs 2I M1). Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.63, Away: 0.53. Home danger zone: Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle.
Midfield — possession 53.7% / 46.3%, dominance ratio 0.62, key duel: Amad Diallo vs 2I M1
Ange-Yoan Bonny xG 0.00Yan Diomande xG 0.20Simon Adingra xG 0.142I M1 xG 0.062I M2 xG 0.062I M3 xG 0.06
Summary
Antagonist matchup analysis for Côte d'Ivoire vs 2I. Most likely scoreline: 2-0. Lambdas derived from 5 home and 6 away individual player duels.
Tactical parity between 3-4-2-1 and 4-4-2. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Home midfield dominates with ~54% possession expected (Amad Diallo vs 2I M1). Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.63, Away: 0.53. Home danger zone: Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle.
Mexico vs 3C/3E/3F/3H/3I
FIFA World Cup · 20260630 · 3-4-2-1 vs 4-4-2
Predicted 1-1Winner: MexicoConfidence 0.76λ home/away 1.78 / 1.05Most-likely P 11.5%
Actual vs predicted: result not available yet (upcoming fixture).
Lambda decomposition (how the goal rates were built)
| Stage | Mexico λ | 3C/3E/3F/3H/3I λ |
|---|
| Pre-mismatch | 1.584 | 0.756 |
| Pre-competitive-floor | 1.782 | 0.727 |
| Pre-calibration | 1.584 | 0.756 |
| Final λ | 1.782 | 1.050 |
competition calibration scale 1.0competition observed total goals 0.0quality gap applied Truemismatch score pressure applied Truecompetitive underdog floor applied Truestage discount 1.0
Scoreline distribution & markets
| Top 5 scorelines | P |
|---|
| 1-1 | 11.5% |
| 1-0 | 11.4% |
| 2-0 | 9.7% |
| 2-1 | 9.7% |
| 0-0 | 6.9% |
| Home win | 53.6% |
| Draw | 24.3% |
| Away win | 22.1% |
| Over 2.5 | 50.4% |
| BTTS yes | 51.6% |
Pregame fair line — favorite Mexico (53.6%), fair total 2.83, fair spread 0.73
Projected players vs season baseline
Proj = projected for this match · Season = this season's per-game average from match data · deviation badge compares projected xG to the player's season xG/game.
Mexico — projected line vs season baseline (3-4-2-1)
| Player | Pos | Min | Proj G | Proj xG | Season xG/g | | Proj Sh | Season Sh/g | Proj Rtg | Season Rtg | Rec |
|---|
| Raúl Rangel | G | 85 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | | 0.0 | 90.0 | 51.4 | 7 |
| Erik Lira | D | 90 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 100% | | 0.1 | 90.8 | 32.0 | 11 |
| Johan Vásquez | D | 91 | 0 | 0.17 | 0.04 | 320% | 1 | 0.2 | 82.1 | 45.0 | 8 |
| César Montes | D | 85 | 0 | 0.16 | 0.02 | 787% | 1 | 0.2 | 93.9 | 56.4 | 5 |
| Edson Álvarez | M | 59 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.03 | 50% | 2 | 0.3 | 84.9 | 40.4 | 7 |
| Gilberto Mora | M | 60 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.17 | 41% | 1 | 1.6 | 89.9 | 57.6 | 7 |
| Álvaro Fidalgo | M | 43 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 100% | 0 | 0.3 | 86.7 | 36.8 | 15 |
| Alexis Vega | M | 87 | 0 | 0.22 | 0.02 | 1003% | 1 | 0.3 | 82.8 | 16.6 | 12 |
| Santiago Giménez | F | 71 | 0 | 0.24 | 0.08 | 189% | 2 | 0.9 | 85.7 | 57.1 | 8 |
| Armando González | F | 72 | 0 | 0.19 | 0.04 | 435% | 2 | 0.7 | 92.6 | 27.1 | 7 |
| Julián Quiñones | F | 88 | 1 | 0.50 | 0.53 | ok | 2 | 3.2 | 87.0 | 68.8 | 9 |
| Team totals | 1 | 1.78 | | 13 | | 87.8 | |
3C/3E/3F/3H/3I — projected line vs season baseline (4-4-2)
| Player | Pos | Min | Proj G | Proj xG | Season xG/g | | Proj Sh | Season Sh/g | Proj Rtg | Season Rtg | Rec |
|---|
| 3C/3E/3F G1 | G | 90 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | | - | 6.8 | - | 0 |
| 3C/3E/3F D1 | D | 90 | 0 | 0.02 | - | n/a | 0 | - | 6.8 | - | 0 |
| 3C/3E/3F D2 | D | 90 | 0 | 0.02 | - | n/a | 0 | - | 6.8 | - | 0 |
| 3C/3E/3F D3 | D | 90 | 0 | 0.02 | - | n/a | 0 | - | 6.8 | - | 0 |
| 3C/3E/3F D4 | D | 90 | 0 | 0.02 | - | n/a | 0 | - | 6.8 | - | 0 |
| 3C/3E/3F M1 | M | 90 | 0 | 0.10 | - | n/a | 1 | - | 6.9 | - | 0 |
| 3C/3E/3F M2 | M | 90 | 0 | 0.10 | - | n/a | 1 | - | 6.9 | - | 0 |
| 3C/3E/3F M3 | M | 90 | 0 | 0.10 | - | n/a | 1 | - | 6.9 | - | 0 |
| 3C/3E/3F M4 | M | 90 | 0 | 0.10 | - | n/a | 1 | - | 6.9 | - | 0 |
| 3C/3E/3F F1 | F | 90 | 1 | 0.19 | - | n/a | 2 | - | 6.9 | - | 0 |
| 3C/3E/3F F2 | F | 90 | 0 | 0.19 | - | n/a | 2 | - | 6.9 | - | 0 |
| Team totals | 1 | 1.05 | | 10 | | 6.8 | |
Antagonist / tactical summary
Midfield is evenly contested — Edson Álvarez vs 3C/3E/3F M1 will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.50, Away: 0.58. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle.
Midfield — possession 51.9% / 48.1%, dominance ratio 0.55, key duel: Edson Álvarez vs 3C/3E/3F M1
Julián Quiñones xG 0.23Santiago Giménez xG 0.11Gilberto Mora xG 0.043C/3E/3F M1 xG 0.083C/3E/3F M2 xG 0.073C/3E/3F M3 xG 0.07
Summary
Antagonist matchup analysis for Mexico vs 3C/3E/3F/3H/3I. Most likely scoreline: 1-1. Lambdas derived from 5 home and 6 away individual player duels.
Tactical parity between 3-4-2-1 and 4-4-2. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Midfield is evenly contested — Edson Álvarez vs 3C/3E/3F M1 will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.50, Away: 0.58. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle.
Côte d'Ivoire vs Norway
FIFA World Cup · 20260630 · 4-3-3 vs 4-3-3
Predicted 0-1Winner: NorwayConfidence 0.7λ home/away 1.02 / 1.20Most-likely P 13.7%
Actual vs predicted: result not available yet (upcoming fixture).
Lambda decomposition (how the goal rates were built)
| Stage | Côte d'Ivoire λ | Norway λ |
|---|
| Pre-competitive-floor | 0.779 | 1.196 |
| Pre-calibration | 0.779 | 1.196 |
| Final λ | 1.020 | 1.196 |
competition calibration scale 1.0competition observed total goals 0.0quality gap applied Falsemismatch score pressure applied Falsecompetitive underdog floor applied Truestage discount 1.0
Scoreline distribution & markets
| Top 5 scorelines | P |
|---|
| 0-1 | 13.7% |
| 1-1 | 13.5% |
| 0-0 | 12.3% |
| 1-0 | 11.7% |
| 0-2 | 7.9% |
| Home win | 30.7% |
| Draw | 30.0% |
| Away win | 39.3% |
| Over 2.5 | 35.2% |
| BTTS yes | 42.3% |
Pregame fair line — favorite Norway (39.3%), fair total 2.22, fair spread -0.18
Projected players vs season baseline
Proj = projected for this match · Season = this season's per-game average from match data · deviation badge compares projected xG to the player's season xG/game.
Côte d'Ivoire — projected line vs season baseline (4-3-3)
| Player | Pos | Min | Proj G | Proj xG | Season xG/g | | Proj Sh | Season Sh/g | Proj Rtg | Season Rtg | Rec |
|---|
| Yan Diomande | F | 95 | 0 | 0.39 | 0.07 | 449% | 2 | 0.6 | 73.5 | 35.9 | 14 |
| Ange-Yoan Bonny | F | 57 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 92% | 2 | 0.3 | 93.0 | 64.0 | 7 |
| Nicolas Pépé | F | 45 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.10 | 92% | 2 | 0.9 | 86.6 | 39.1 | 13 |
| Ibrahim Sangaré | M | 50 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 100% | 1 | 0.1 | 84.4 | 50.9 | 14 |
| Franck Kessié | M | 72 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.11 | 100% | 1 | 0.7 | 86.8 | 71.0 | 6 |
| Christ Inao Oulaï | M | 61 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 100% | 0 | 0.4 | 71.2 | 68.4 | 8 |
| Ghislain Konan | D | 87 | 0 | 0.13 | 0.04 | 220% | 1 | 0.9 | 78.8 | 58.3 | 7 |
| Ousmane Diomande | D | 83 | 0 | 0.18 | 0.01 | 2425% | 0 | 0.2 | 87.4 | 30.7 | 13 |
| Guéla Doué | D | 79 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 100% | 0 | 0.1 | 84.2 | 68.7 | 7 |
| Yahia Fofana | G | 89 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | | 0.0 | 82.8 | 67.9 | 7 |
| Odilon Kossounou | D | 60 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 2154% | 0 | 0.1 | 86.9 | 56.6 | 7 |
| Team totals | 0 | 1.02 | | 10 | | 83.2 | |
Norway — projected line vs season baseline (4-3-3)
| Player | Pos | Min | Proj G | Proj xG | Season xG/g | | Proj Sh | Season Sh/g | Proj Rtg | Season Rtg | Rec |
|---|
| Antonio Nusa | F | 62 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.03 | 115% | 2 | 0.6 | 83.0 | 44.3 | 12 |
| Erling Haaland | F | 94 | 1 | 0.76 | 0.46 | 64% | 2 | 2.1 | 98.3 | 40.1 | 15 |
| Alexander Sørloth | F | 42 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.06 | 90% | 2 | 0.5 | 90.6 | 41.4 | 19 |
| Fredrik Aursnes | M | 79 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 100% | 1 | 0.3 | 87.1 | 51.0 | 12 |
| Martin Ødegaard | M | 70 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.12 | 40% | 2 | 0.8 | 95.0 | 39.2 | 16 |
| Sander Berge | M | 86 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 100% | 1 | 0.2 | 86.2 | 31.8 | 13 |
| David Møller Wolfe | D | 76 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | 0 | 0.0 | 79.6 | 46.8 | 10 |
| Torbjørn Heggem | D | 59 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 100% | 0 | 0.1 | 79.9 | 46.0 | 13 |
| Kristoffer Ajer | D | 92 | 0 | 0.23 | 0.02 | 1422% | 0 | 0.1 | 82.1 | 31.5 | 13 |
| Marcus Pedersen | M | 72 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 100% | 0 | 0.2 | 78.3 | 28.9 | 14 |
| Ørjan Nyland | G | 88 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | | 0.0 | 82.4 | 35.2 | 10 |
| Team totals | 1 | 1.20 | | 10 | | 85.7 | |
Antagonist / tactical summary
Midfield is evenly contested — Christ Inao Oulaï vs Martin Ødegaard will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.27, Away: 0.86. Home danger zone: Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle.
Midfield — possession 50.1% / 49.9%, dominance ratio 0.48, key duel: Christ Inao Oulaï vs Martin Ødegaard
Yan Diomande xG 0.12Nicolas Pépé xG 0.00Ange-Yoan Bonny xG 0.00Antonio Nusa xG 0.05Alexander Sørloth xG 0.01Erling Haaland xG 0.67
Summary
Antagonist matchup analysis for Côte d'Ivoire vs Norway. Most likely scoreline: 0-1. Lambdas derived from 5 home and 5 away individual player duels.
Tactical parity between 4-3-3 and 4-3-3. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Midfield is evenly contested — Christ Inao Oulaï vs Martin Ødegaard will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.27, Away: 0.86. Home danger zone: Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle.
France vs Sweden
FIFA World Cup · 20260630 · 4-2-3-1 vs 3-4-1-2
Predicted 1-1Winner: FranceConfidence 0.77λ home/away 1.91 / 1.05Most-likely P 10.9%
Actual vs predicted: result not available yet (upcoming fixture).
Lambda decomposition (how the goal rates were built)
| Stage | France λ | Sweden λ |
|---|
| Pre-competitive-floor | 1.912 | 0.668 |
| Pre-calibration | 1.912 | 0.668 |
| Final λ | 1.912 | 1.050 |
competition calibration scale 1.0competition observed total goals 0.0quality gap applied Truemismatch score pressure applied Falsecompetitive underdog floor applied Truestage discount 1.0
Scoreline distribution & markets
| Top 5 scorelines | P |
|---|
| 1-1 | 10.9% |
| 1-0 | 10.8% |
| 2-0 | 9.9% |
| 2-1 | 9.9% |
| 0-0 | 6.1% |
| Home win | 56.5% |
| Draw | 23.0% |
| Away win | 20.5% |
| Over 2.5 | 53.4% |
| BTTS yes | 52.9% |
Pregame fair line — favorite France (56.5%), fair total 2.96, fair spread 0.86
Projected players vs season baseline
Proj = projected for this match · Season = this season's per-game average from match data · deviation badge compares projected xG to the player's season xG/game.
France — projected line vs season baseline (4-2-3-1)
| Player | Pos | Min | Proj G | Proj xG | Season xG/g | | Proj Sh | Season Sh/g | Proj Rtg | Season Rtg | Rec |
|---|
| Kylian Mbappé | F | 83 | 1 | 0.64 | 0.55 | ok | 3 | 3.5 | 99.0 | 57.6 | 19 |
| Michael Olise | M | 85 | 0 | 0.13 | 0.29 | 54% | 2 | 2.8 | 94.1 | 73.5 | 17 |
| Ousmane Dembélé | F | 75 | 0 | 0.19 | 0.24 | ok | 2 | 1.6 | 97.4 | 54.3 | 24 |
| Adrien Rabiot | M | 93 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.12 | 38% | 2 | 1.5 | 90.4 | 57.3 | 12 |
| Aurélien Tchouaméni | M | 94 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.04 | 62% | 1 | 0.6 | 92.0 | 38.5 | 19 |
| Theo Hernández | D | 94 | 0 | 0.12 | 0.03 | 381% | 2 | 0.7 | 90.7 | 47.3 | 13 |
| Maxence Lacroix | D | 91 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.01 | 1134% | 1 | 0.1 | 86.5 | 25.7 | 16 |
| Dayot Upamecano | D | 93 | 0 | 0.50 | 0.11 | 349% | 1 | 0.6 | 93.1 | 59.0 | 18 |
| Jules Koundé | D | 95 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.01 | 535% | 0 | 0.2 | 94.6 | 47.4 | 17 |
| Mike Maignan | G | 94 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | | 0.0 | 94.1 | 63.8 | 12 |
| Désiré Doué | F | 60 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.09 | ok | 2 | 1.4 | 92.4 | 53.2 | 21 |
| Team totals | 1 | 1.91 | | 16 | | 93.1 | |
Sweden — projected line vs season baseline (3-4-1-2)
| Player | Pos | Min | Proj G | Proj xG | Season xG/g | | Proj Sh | Season Sh/g | Proj Rtg | Season Rtg | Rec |
|---|
| Alexander Isak | F | 73 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.07 | 38% | 2 | 0.8 | 95.3 | 36.8 | 11 |
| Viktor Gyökeres | F | 82 | 0 | 0.29 | 0.19 | 49% | 2 | 1.6 | 94.4 | 57.7 | 18 |
| Anthony Elanga | F | 54 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.11 | 91% | 1 | 0.6 | 88.6 | 39.9 | 16 |
| Elliot Stroud | M | 33 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 100% | 1 | 0.1 | 77.3 | 22.1 | 9 |
| Lucas Bergvall | M | 26 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 100% | 1 | 0.4 | 84.1 | 41.0 | 13 |
| Yasin Ayari | M | 68 | 1 | 0.23 | 0.02 | 847% | 2 | 0.7 | 82.1 | 45.9 | 12 |
| Alexander Bernhardsson | F | 24 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.01 | 1423% | 1 | 0.1 | 78.5 | 24.0 | 8 |
| Gabriel Gudmundsson | D | 59 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | 1 | 0.2 | 84.2 | 36.8 | 11 |
| Victor Lindelöf | D | 86 | 0 | 0.23 | 0.02 | 1394% | 0 | 0.1 | 84.3 | 37.2 | 21 |
| Gustaf Lagerbielke | D | 86 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.01 | 847% | 0 | 0.4 | 76.5 | 62.4 | 16 |
| Jacob Widell Zetterström | G | 88 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | | 0.0 | 77.7 | 30.6 | 5 |
| Team totals | 1 | 1.05 | | 11 | | 83.9 | |
Antagonist / tactical summary
Midfield is evenly contested — Michael Olise vs Lucas Bergvall will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.82, Away: 0.48. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle.
Midfield — possession 52.6% / 47.4%, dominance ratio 0.55, key duel: Michael Olise vs Lucas Bergvall
Michael Olise xG 0.12Kylian Mbappé xG 0.49Ousmane Dembélé xG 0.15Viktor Gyökeres xG 0.17Alexander Isak xG 0.06Elliot Stroud xG 0.06
Summary
Antagonist matchup analysis for France vs Sweden. Most likely scoreline: 1-1. Lambdas derived from 4 home and 5 away individual player duels.
Tactical parity between 4-2-3-1 and 3-4-1-2. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Midfield is evenly contested — Michael Olise vs Lucas Bergvall will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.82, Away: 0.48. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle.
Generated 2026-09-04 22:27:55 UTC · Soccer prediction reporting