Soccer predictions: actual data vs predicted data

Slate 20260701 · 5 match(es)

How to read this report. Each match shows the model's headline prediction, the stage-by-stage lambda (goal-rate) build, both teams' standing/form inputs, and every starter's projected line next to their real season baseline. A moderate / large deviation badge flags a projection that strays far from the player's season form — a quick way to spot when the inputs look right but a projection does not. When the real result is known an actual-vs-predicted banner appears.

All matches overview

Match	Score	Winner	H / D / A	O2.5	BTTS	Conf	λ H/A	Actual	Result
Belgium vs 3A/3E/3H/3I/3J FIFA World Cup	2-0	Belgium	72.8% / 17.5% / 9.7%	55.5%	43.8%	0.83	2.35 / 0.71	-	pending
USA vs 3B/3E/3F/3I/3J FIFA World Cup	2-0	USA	71.9% / 17.9% / 10.1%	54.5%	43.7%	0.82	2.30 / 0.71	-	pending
USA vs BiH World Championship	1-0	USA	47.2% / 27.1% / 25.7%	42.6%	47.1%	0.73	1.49 / 1.02	-	pending
England vs DR Congo World Championship	2-0	England	81.5% / 12.4% / 6.1%	66.6%	44.9%	0.88	2.93 / 0.69	-	pending
Belgium vs Senegal World Championship	0-1	Senegal	32.8% / 31.1% / 36.1%	32.4%	40.1%	0.69	1.02 / 1.09	-	pending

Match detail

Belgium vs 3A/3E/3H/3I/3J

FIFA World Cup · 20260701 · 3-5-2 vs 4-4-2

Predicted 2-0Winner: BelgiumConfidence 0.83λ home/away 2.35 / 0.71Most-likely P 13.6%

Actual vs predicted: result not available yet (upcoming fixture).

Lambda decomposition (how the goal rates were built)

Stage	Belgium λ	3A/3E/3H/3I/3J λ
Pre-mismatch	1.985	0.756
Pre-calibration	1.985	0.756
Final λ	2.346	0.710

competition calibration scale 1.0competition observed total goals 0.0quality gap applied Truemismatch score pressure applied Truecompetitive underdog floor applied Falsestage discount 1.0

Scoreline distribution & markets

Top 5 scorelines	P
2-0	13.6%
1-0	12.2%
3-0	10.1%
2-1	9.2%
1-1	8.3%

Home win	72.8%
Draw	17.5%
Away win	9.7%
Over 2.5	55.5%
BTTS yes	43.8%

Pregame fair line — favorite Belgium (72.8%), fair total 3.06, fair spread 1.64

Projected players vs season baseline

Proj = projected for this match · Season = this season's per-game average from match data · deviation badge compares projected xG to the player's season xG/game.

Belgium — projected line vs season baseline (3-5-2)

Player	Pos	Min	Proj G	Proj xG	Season xG/g		Proj Sh	Season Sh/g	Proj Rtg	Season Rtg	Rec
Senne Lammens	G	95	0	0.00	-	n/a		0.0	85.6	22.8	13
Zeno Debast	D	93	0	0.02	-	n/a	0	0.0	84.8	12.3	11
Koni De Winter	D	38	0	0.00	-	n/a	0	0.0	80.5	12.5	10
Maxim De Cuyper	D	85	0	0.64	0.09	593%	2	0.8	87.6	44.3	13
Jérémy Doku	M	90	1	0.20	0.04	343%	2	0.8	87.8	42.8	17
Amadou Onana	M	74	0	0.03	0.02	49%	1	0.3	86.4	43.2	16
Youri Tielemans	M	88	0	0.16	0.05	253%	2	0.9	93.0	48.8	18
Alexis Saelemaekers	M	87	0	0.19	0.04	360%	1	0.5	86.2	29.8	12
Diego Moreira	M	85	1	0.73	0.04	1746%	1	0.4	84.1	15.7	14
Matías Fernández-Pardo	F	52	0	0.18	0.06	181%	3	0.7	82.1	43.6	12
Charles De Ketelaere	F	78	0	0.18	0.14	ok	1	0.7	89.2	51.1	11
Team totals			2	2.35			13			86.1

3A/3E/3H/3I/3J — projected line vs season baseline (4-4-2)

Player	Pos	Min	Proj xG	Season xG/g		Proj Sh	Season Sh/g	Proj Rtg	Season Rtg	Rec
3A/3E/3H G1	G	90	0.00	-	n/a		-	6.8	-	0
3A/3E/3H D1	D	90	0.01	-	n/a	0	-	6.8	-	0
3A/3E/3H D2	D	90	0.01	-	n/a	0	-	6.8	-	0
3A/3E/3H D3	D	90	0.01	-	n/a	0	-	6.8	-	0
3A/3E/3H D4	D	90	0.01	-	n/a	0	-	6.8	-	0
3A/3E/3H M1	M	90	0.06	-	n/a	1	-	6.9	-	0
3A/3E/3H M2	M	90	0.06	-	n/a	1	-	6.9	-	0
3A/3E/3H M3	M	90	0.06	-	n/a	1	-	6.9	-	0
3A/3E/3H M4	M	90	0.06	-	n/a	1	-	6.9	-	0
3A/3E/3H F1	F	90	0.11	-	n/a	2	-	6.9	-	0
3A/3E/3H F2	F	90	0.18	-	n/a	2	-	6.9	-	0
Team totals			0.71			10			6.8

Antagonist / tactical summary

Home midfield dominates with ~54% possession expected (Jérémy Doku vs 3A/3E/3H M1). Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.60, Away: 0.34. Home danger zone: Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle.

Midfield — possession 53.7% / 46.3%, dominance ratio 0.63, key duel: Jérémy Doku vs 3A/3E/3H M1

Matías Fernández-Pardo xG 0.07Alexis Saelemaekers xG 0.09Diego Moreira xG 0.333A/3E/3H F1 xG 0.153A/3E/3H M1 xG 0.073A/3E/3H M4 xG 0.07

Summary

Antagonist matchup analysis for Belgium vs 3A/3E/3H/3I/3J. Most likely scoreline: 2-0. Lambdas derived from 5 home and 4 away individual player duels.

Tactical parity between 3-5-2 and 4-4-2. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Home midfield dominates with ~54% possession expected (Jérémy Doku vs 3A/3E/3H M1). Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.60, Away: 0.34. Home danger zone: Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle.

USA vs 3B/3E/3F/3I/3J

FIFA World Cup · 20260701 · 3-4-2-1 vs 4-4-2

Predicted 2-0Winner: USAConfidence 0.82λ home/away 2.30 / 0.71Most-likely P 13.6%

Actual vs predicted: result not available yet (upcoming fixture).

Lambda decomposition (how the goal rates were built)

Stage	USA λ	3B/3E/3F/3I/3J λ
Pre-mismatch	1.969	0.756
Pre-calibration	1.969	0.756
Final λ	2.299	0.714

Scoreline distribution & markets

Top 5 scorelines	P
2-0	13.6%
1-0	12.4%
3-0	9.9%
2-1	9.2%
1-1	8.5%

Home win	71.9%
Draw	17.9%
Away win	10.1%
Over 2.5	54.5%
BTTS yes	43.7%

Pregame fair line — favorite USA (71.9%), fair total 3.01, fair spread 1.58

Projected players vs season baseline

Proj = projected for this match · Season = this season's per-game average from match data · deviation badge compares projected xG to the player's season xG/game.

USA — projected line vs season baseline (3-4-2-1)

Player	Pos	Min	Proj G	Proj xG	Season xG/g		Proj Sh	Season Sh/g	Proj Rtg	Season Rtg	Rec
Matt Turner	G	81	0	0.00	-	n/a		0.0	80.6	25.3	9
Antonee Robinson	D	93	0	0.21	0.07	198%	1	0.2	89.2	41.8	12
Chris Richards	D	88	0	0.26	0.06	337%	1	0.5	84.2	42.7	11
Sergiño Dest	D	72	0	0.02	0.01	43%	0	0.3	86.1	43.5	11
Weston McKennie	M	92	0	0.16	0.08	90%	2	0.8	85.2	69.0	8
Malik Tillman	M	60	0	0.05	0.12	52%	1	1.0	88.9	69.2	10
Tyler Adams	M	83	0	0.02	0.00	926%	0	0.1	86.3	43.9	11
Brenden Aaronson	M	68	0	0.18	0.07	157%	1	0.6	80.8	21.8	12
Christian Pulišić	F	93	0	0.38	0.14	179%	2	0.9	91.6	45.8	9
Folarin Balogun	F	82	1	0.39	0.29	35%	3	2.9	84.3	57.6	7
Ricardo Pepi	F	73	1	0.53	0.30	77%	3	1.9	82.8	66.6	7
Team totals			2	2.30			15			85.5

3B/3E/3F/3I/3J — projected line vs season baseline (4-4-2)

Player	Pos	Min	Proj xG	Season xG/g		Proj Sh	Season Sh/g	Proj Rtg	Season Rtg	Rec
3B/3E/3F G1	G	90	0.00	-	n/a		-	6.8	-	0
3B/3E/3F D1	D	90	0.01	-	n/a	0	-	6.8	-	0
3B/3E/3F D2	D	90	0.01	-	n/a	0	-	6.8	-	0
3B/3E/3F D3	D	90	0.01	-	n/a	0	-	6.8	-	0
3B/3E/3F D4	D	90	0.01	-	n/a	0	-	6.8	-	0
3B/3E/3F M1	M	90	0.07	-	n/a	1	-	6.9	-	0
3B/3E/3F M2	M	90	0.07	-	n/a	1	-	6.9	-	0
3B/3E/3F M3	M	90	0.07	-	n/a	1	-	6.9	-	0
3B/3E/3F M4	M	90	0.07	-	n/a	1	-	6.9	-	0
3B/3E/3F F1	F	90	0.13	-	n/a	2	-	6.9	-	0
3B/3E/3F F2	F	90	0.13	-	n/a	2	-	6.9	-	0
Team totals			0.71			10			6.8

Antagonist / tactical summary

Home midfield dominates with ~54% possession expected (Weston McKennie vs 3B/3E/3F M1). Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.78, Away: 0.55. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle.

Midfield — possession 53.5% / 46.5%, dominance ratio 0.60, key duel: Weston McKennie vs 3B/3E/3F M1

Ricardo Pepi xG 0.31Christian Pulišić xG 0.22Malik Tillman xG 0.043B/3E/3F M1 xG 0.073B/3E/3F M2 xG 0.063B/3E/3F M3 xG 0.06

Summary

Antagonist matchup analysis for USA vs 3B/3E/3F/3I/3J. Most likely scoreline: 2-0. Lambdas derived from 5 home and 6 away individual player duels.

Tactical parity between 3-4-2-1 and 4-4-2. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Home midfield dominates with ~54% possession expected (Weston McKennie vs 3B/3E/3F M1). Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.78, Away: 0.55. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle.

USA vs BiH

World Championship · 20260701 · 3-4-2-1 vs 4-4-2

Predicted 1-0Winner: USAConfidence 0.73λ home/away 1.49 / 1.02Most-likely P 13.0%

Actual vs predicted: result not available yet (upcoming fixture).

Lambda decomposition (how the goal rates were built)

Stage	USA λ	BiH λ
Pre-competitive-floor	1.488	0.766
Pre-calibration	1.488	0.766
Final λ	1.488	1.020

competition calibration scale 1.0competition observed total goals 0.0quality gap applied Truemismatch score pressure applied Falsecompetitive underdog floor applied Truestage discount 1.0

Scoreline distribution & markets

Top 5 scorelines	P
1-0	13.0%
1-1	12.8%
0-0	9.3%
2-0	9.2%
2-1	8.9%

Home win	47.2%
Draw	27.1%
Away win	25.7%
Over 2.5	42.6%
BTTS yes	47.1%

Pregame fair line — favorite USA (47.2%), fair total 2.51, fair spread 0.47

Projected players vs season baseline

Proj = projected for this match · Season = this season's per-game average from match data · deviation badge compares projected xG to the player's season xG/game.

USA — projected line vs season baseline (3-4-2-1)

Player	Pos	Min	Proj G	Proj xG	Season xG/g		Proj Sh	Season Sh/g	Proj Rtg	Season Rtg	Rec
Matthew Freese	G	88	0	0.00	-	n/a		0.0	92.4	44.1	9
Folarin Balogun	F	78	1	0.21	0.29	ok	2	2.9	84.4	57.6	7
Christian Pulišić	F	95	0	0.13	0.14	ok	3	0.9	91.6	45.8	9
Weston McKennie	M	94	0	0.08	0.08	ok	2	0.8	85.2	69.0	8
Antonee Robinson	D	95	0	0.23	0.07	227%	1	0.2	89.2	41.8	12
Malik Tillman	M	36	0	0.00	0.12	100%	1	1.0	88.9	69.2	10
Tyler Adams	M	77	0	0.00	0.00	100%	0	0.1	86.3	43.9	11
Sergiño Dest	D	58	0	0.00	0.01	100%	0	0.3	86.1	43.5	11
Chris Richards	D	87	0	0.29	0.06	392%	1	0.5	84.2	42.7	11
Tim Ream	D	87	0	0.00	-	n/a	0	0.0	78.8	43.1	8
Alexander Freeman	D	69	0	0.40	0.04	963%	0	0.3	85.7	36.1	12
Team totals			1	1.49			11			86.6

BiH — projected line vs season baseline (4-4-2)

Player	Pos	Min	Proj xG	Season xG/g		Proj Sh	Season Sh/g	Proj Rtg	Season Rtg	Rec
Edin Džeko	F	71	0.04	0.05	ok	2	0.6	87.6	39.4	5
Ermedin Demirović	F	82	0.05	0.19	72%	2	1.4	86.7	58.8	10
Kerim Alajbegović	M	81	0.25	0.11	134%	2	1.9	68.0	56.6	11
Ivan Bašić	M	59	0.04	0.02	64%	1	0.8	90.0	43.2	5
Benjamin Tahirović	M	70	0.00	0.00	100%	1	0.2	73.6	52.2	5
Esmir Bajraktarević	F	26	0.12	0.12	ok	1	0.9	73.3	41.0	8
Sead Kolašinac	D	68	0.00	-	n/a	0	0.0	85.2	38.5	10
Nikola Katić	D	79	0.07	0.02	292%	0	0.4	75.9	54.8	5
Tarik Muharemović	D	93	0.21	0.04	486%	0	0.2	77.3	30.3	11
Nikola Vasilj	G	89	0.00	-	n/a		0.0	83.2	56.8	8
Amar Dedić	D	81	0.03	0.00	624%	0	0.2	79.4	37.0	12
Team totals			1.02			11			80.0

Antagonist / tactical summary

Home midfield dominates with ~53% possession expected (Weston McKennie vs Kerim Alajbegović). Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.67, Away: 0.59. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: LM vs CB.

Midfield — possession 53.2% / 46.8%, dominance ratio 0.58, key duel: Weston McKennie vs Kerim Alajbegović

Sergiño Dest xG 0.24Folarin Balogun xG 0.17Malik Tillman xG 0.11Kerim Alajbegović xG 0.25Ivan Bašić xG 0.03Benjamin Tahirović xG 0.09

Summary

Antagonist matchup analysis for USA vs BiH. Most likely scoreline: 1-0. Lambdas derived from 5 home and 6 away individual player duels.

Tactical parity between 3-4-2-1 and 4-4-2. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Home midfield dominates with ~53% possession expected (Weston McKennie vs Kerim Alajbegović). Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.67, Away: 0.59. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: LM vs CB.

England vs DR Congo

World Championship · 20260701 · 4-2-3-1 vs 5-3-2

Predicted 2-0Winner: EnglandConfidence 0.88λ home/away 2.93 / 0.69Most-likely P 12.5%

Actual vs predicted: result not available yet (upcoming fixture).

Lambda decomposition (how the goal rates were built)

Stage	England λ	DR Congo λ
Pre-mismatch	2.491	0.727
Pre-calibration	2.491	0.727
Final λ	2.928	0.685

Scoreline distribution & markets

Top 5 scorelines	P
2-0	12.5%
3-0	11.6%
1-0	9.0%
2-1	8.1%
4-0	8.1%

Home win	81.5%
Draw	12.4%
Away win	6.1%
Over 2.5	66.6%
BTTS yes	44.9%

Pregame fair line — favorite England (81.5%), fair total 3.61, fair spread 2.24

Projected players vs season baseline

Proj = projected for this match · Season = this season's per-game average from match data · deviation badge compares projected xG to the player's season xG/game.

England — projected line vs season baseline (4-2-3-1)

Player	Pos	Min	Proj G	Proj xG	Season xG/g		Proj Sh	Season Sh/g	Proj Rtg	Season Rtg	Rec
Harry Kane	F	93	2	0.72	0.46	59%	3	2.6	97.1	63.5	17
Marcus Rashford	F	20	0	0.00	0.11	98%	2	1.2	87.6	35.0	19
Jude Bellingham	M	74	0	0.33	0.18	84%	1	1.1	98.2	57.3	16
Bukayo Saka	F	43	0	0.09	0.16	44%	3	1.2	95.7	45.5	19
Declan Rice	M	95	0	0.07	0.02	187%	1	0.7	95.2	52.2	20
Elliot Anderson	M	95	0	0.07	0.04	82%	2	1.0	88.3	57.3	18
Nico O'Reilly	D	88	0	0.44	0.12	267%	1	0.7	80.3	37.8	15
Marc Guéhi	D	83	0	0.20	0.02	793%	1	0.2	90.2	53.1	16
Ezri Konsa	D	95	0	0.56	0.07	665%	1	0.3	89.8	52.6	20
Djed Spence	D	42	0	0.45	0.05	894%	0	0.2	85.4	61.8	13
Jordan Pickford	G	92	0	0.00	-	n/a		0.0	90.7	42.9	14
Team totals			2	2.93			15			90.8

DR Congo — projected line vs season baseline (5-3-2)

Player	Pos	Min	Proj xG	Season xG/g		Proj Sh	Season Sh/g	Proj Rtg	Season Rtg	Rec
Cédric Bakambu	F	49	0.00	0.03	93%	2	0.4	83.2	32.0	10
Yoane Wissa	F	57	0.16	0.21	ok	2	0.9	89.0	40.2	12
Nathanaël Mbuku	M	71	0.06	0.01	625%	1	0.4	76.7	28.9	7
Samuel Moutoussamy	M	77	0.00	0.02	100%	1	0.6	89.5	67.0	8
Noah Sadiki	M	76	0.00	0.04	100%	0	0.2	81.4	47.4	10
Arthur Masuaku	D	75	0.00	-	n/a	0	0.0	81.9	49.1	7
Steve Kapuadi	D	88	0.25	0.05	441%	0	0.2	77.2	31.8	4
Axel Tuanzebe	D	89	0.00	-	n/a	0	0.0	79.6	66.1	7
Chancel Mbemba	D	88	0.05	0.01	506%	0	0.2	88.7	45.0	9
Aaron Wan-Bissaka	D	90	0.00	-	n/a	0	0.0	87.2	59.1	7
Lionel Mpasi Nzau	G	88	0.00	-	n/a		0.0	86.3	39.0	7
Team totals			0.69			7			83.7

Antagonist / tactical summary

Home midfield dominates with ~53% possession expected (Jude Bellingham vs Noah Sadiki). Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.89, Away: 0.14. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run.

Midfield — possession 53.0% / 47.0%, dominance ratio 0.62, key duel: Jude Bellingham vs Noah Sadiki

Elliot Anderson xG 0.05Marcus Rashford xG 0.00Bukayo Saka xG 0.06Cédric Bakambu xG 0.00Arthur Masuaku xG 0.05Chancel Mbemba xG 0.03

Summary

Antagonist matchup analysis for England vs DR Congo. Most likely scoreline: 2-0. Lambdas derived from 5 home and 5 away individual player duels.

Tactical parity between 4-2-3-1 and 5-3-2. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Home midfield dominates with ~53% possession expected (Jude Bellingham vs Noah Sadiki). Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.89, Away: 0.14. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run.

Belgium vs Senegal

World Championship · 20260701 · 4-3-3 vs 4-2-3-1

Predicted 0-1Winner: SenegalConfidence 0.69λ home/away 1.02 / 1.09Most-likely P 13.8%

Actual vs predicted: result not available yet (upcoming fixture).

Lambda decomposition (how the goal rates were built)

Stage	Belgium λ	Senegal λ
Pre-competitive-floor	0.718	1.086
Pre-calibration	0.718	1.086
Final λ	1.020	1.086

competition calibration scale 1.0competition observed total goals 0.0quality gap applied Falsemismatch score pressure applied Falsecompetitive underdog floor applied Truestage discount 1.0

Scoreline distribution & markets

Top 5 scorelines	P
0-1	13.8%
0-0	13.7%
1-1	13.7%
1-0	13.0%
0-2	7.2%

Home win	32.8%
Draw	31.1%
Away win	36.1%
Over 2.5	32.4%
BTTS yes	40.1%

Pregame fair line — favorite Senegal (36.1%), fair total 2.11, fair spread -0.07

Projected players vs season baseline

Proj = projected for this match · Season = this season's per-game average from match data · deviation badge compares projected xG to the player's season xG/game.

Belgium — projected line vs season baseline (4-3-3)

Player	Pos	Min	Proj xG	Season xG/g		Proj Sh	Season Sh/g	Proj Rtg	Season Rtg	Rec
Jérémy Doku	M	90	0.06	0.04	ok	2	0.8	87.8	42.8	17
Charles De Ketelaere	F	67	0.00	0.14	99%	2	0.7	89.1	51.1	11
Leandro Trossard	F	47	0.04	0.15	72%	2	1.6	89.8	45.3	19
Youri Tielemans	M	85	0.04	0.05	ok	2	0.9	92.9	48.8	18
Hans Vanaken	M	67	0.04	0.10	57%	1	1.1	87.0	61.4	11
Maxim De Cuyper	D	82	0.39	0.09	319%	2	0.8	87.6	44.3	13
Nathan Ngoy	D	90	0.09	0.02	304%	1	0.4	74.6	45.2	12
Brandon Mechele	D	88	0.14	0.07	117%	1	0.5	83.4	59.2	11
Timothy Castagne	D	76	0.06	0.02	260%	1	0.3	83.2	44.5	13
Thibaut Courtois	G	87	0.00	-	n/a		0.0	96.0	46.9	17
Kevin De Bruyne	M	71	0.10	0.14	ok	2	2.1	94.4	48.1	9
Team totals			1.02			16			87.8

Senegal — projected line vs season baseline (4-2-3-1)

Player	Pos	Min	Proj G	Proj xG	Season xG/g		Proj Sh	Season Sh/g	Proj Rtg	Season Rtg	Rec
Iliman Ndiaye	M	95	0	0.08	0.05	68%	1	0.5	86.1	26.6	13
Pape Gueye	M	68	0	0.20	0.04	367%	2	0.9	85.6	47.7	11
Idrissa Gana Gueye	M	88	0	0.04	0.02	109%	1	0.8	89.3	55.2	4
El Hadji Malick Diouf	D	83	0	0.00	0.01	100%	0	0.1	81.8	47.6	7
Moussa Niakhaté	D	83	0	0.11	0.01	834%	0	0.1	84.2	59.3	9
Abdoulaye Seck	D	57	0	0.05	0.01	262%	2	0.5	88.7	17.2	4
Krépin Diatta	M	90	0	0.05	0.01	489%	2	0.1	80.7	25.9	8
Mory Diaw	G	76	0	0.00	-	n/a		0.0	76.9	52.7	7
Lamine Camara	M	82	0	0.12	0.08	48%	2	1.2	84.6	61.0	6
Sadio Mané	M	89	0	0.00	0.23	100%	2	1.0	89.7	51.4	8
Ismaïla Sarr	F	72	1	0.33	0.30	ok	2	1.6	86.6	37.9	13
Team totals			1	1.09			15			84.9

Antagonist / tactical summary

Midfield is evenly contested — Jérémy Doku vs Iliman Ndiaye will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.24, Away: 0.80. Home danger zone: Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle.

Midfield — possession 49.7% / 50.3%, dominance ratio 0.49, key duel: Jérémy Doku vs Iliman Ndiaye

Leandro Trossard xG 0.04Kevin De Bruyne xG 0.10Charles De Ketelaere xG 0.00Lamine Camara xG 0.15Sadio Mané xG 0.19Krépin Diatta xG 0.05

Summary

Antagonist matchup analysis for Belgium vs Senegal. Most likely scoreline: 0-1. Lambdas derived from 5 home and 5 away individual player duels.

Tactical parity between 4-3-3 and 4-2-3-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Midfield is evenly contested — Jérémy Doku vs Iliman Ndiaye will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.24, Away: 0.80. Home danger zone: Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle.

Generated 2026-09-04 22:27:55 UTC · Soccer prediction reporting