Soccer predictions: actual data vs predicted data
Slate 20260702 · 6 match(es)
How to read this report. Each match shows the model's headline prediction, the stage-by-stage lambda (goal-rate) build, both teams' standing/form inputs, and every starter's projected line next to their real season baseline. A moderate / large deviation badge flags a projection that strays far from the player's season form — a quick way to spot when the inputs look right but a projection does not. When the real result is known an actual-vs-predicted banner appears.
All matches overview
| Match | Score | Winner | H / D / A | O2.5 | BTTS | Conf | λ H/A | Actual | Result |
|---|
| Spain vs 2J FIFA World Cup | 2-0 | Spain | 78.4% / 14.2% / 7.4% | 62.5% | 44.7% | 0.86 | 2.70 / 0.70 | - | pending |
| Switzerland vs 3E/3F/3G/3I/3J FIFA World Cup | 1-1 | Switzerland | 57.6% / 22.5% / 19.8% | 54.5% | 53.4% | 0.77 | 1.96 / 1.05 | - | pending |
| Switzerland vs Algeria World Championship | 1-0 | Switzerland | 37.2% / 30.7% / 32.1% | 33.3% | 40.8% | 0.69 | 1.12 / 1.02 | - | pending |
| Spain vs Austria World Championship | 2-0 | Spain | 76.0% / 15.8% / 8.2% | 58.4% | 43.3% | 0.84 | 2.51 / 0.68 | - | pending |
| Portugal vs Croatia World Championship | 1-0 | Portugal | 66.6% / 21.3% / 12.1% | 46.2% | 40.5% | 0.79 | 1.97 / 0.68 | - | pending |
| Switzerland vs Ecuador FIFA World Cup | 0-0 | Ecuador | 26.5% / 33.9% / 39.6% | 24.4% | 32.4% | 0.66 | 0.77 / 1.02 | - | pending |
Match detail
Spain vs 2J
FIFA World Cup · 20260702 · 4-2-3-1 vs 4-4-2
Predicted 2-0Winner: SpainConfidence 0.86λ home/away 2.70 / 0.70Most-likely P 13.1%
Actual vs predicted: result not available yet (upcoming fixture).
Lambda decomposition (how the goal rates were built)
| Stage | Spain λ | 2J λ |
|---|
| Pre-mismatch | 2.193 | 0.756 |
| Pre-calibration | 2.193 | 0.756 |
| Final λ | 2.697 | 0.696 |
competition calibration scale 1.0competition observed total goals 0.0quality gap applied Truemismatch score pressure applied Truecompetitive underdog floor applied Falsestage discount 1.0
Scoreline distribution & markets
| Top 5 scorelines | P |
|---|
| 2-0 | 13.1% |
| 3-0 | 11.2% |
| 1-0 | 10.2% |
| 2-1 | 8.6% |
| 3-1 | 7.4% |
| Home win | 78.4% |
| Draw | 14.2% |
| Away win | 7.4% |
| Over 2.5 | 62.5% |
| BTTS yes | 44.7% |
Pregame fair line — favorite Spain (78.4%), fair total 3.39, fair spread 2.00
Projected players vs season baseline
Proj = projected for this match · Season = this season's per-game average from match data · deviation badge compares projected xG to the player's season xG/game.
Spain — projected line vs season baseline (4-2-3-1)
| Player | Pos | Min | Proj G | Proj xG | Season xG/g | | Proj Sh | Season Sh/g | Proj Rtg | Season Rtg | Rec |
|---|
| Joan García | G | 95 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | | 0.0 | 90.3 | 19.2 | 18 |
| Pau Cubarsí | D | 90 | 0 | 0.22 | 0.01 | 2046% | 0 | 0.2 | 90.0 | 43.7 | 18 |
| Marc Cucurella | D | 93 | 0 | 0.24 | 0.02 | 981% | 0 | 0.2 | 91.3 | 46.3 | 16 |
| Pedro Porro | D | 95 | 0 | 0.31 | 0.12 | 172% | 2 | 0.9 | 90.0 | 46.1 | 16 |
| Eric García | D | 61 | 0 | 0.13 | 0.00 | 4790% | 0 | 0.1 | 86.7 | 19.3 | 18 |
| Lamine Yamal | M | 93 | 1 | 0.56 | 0.25 | 126% | 2 | 2.0 | 97.3 | 45.9 | 18 |
| Pedri | M | 84 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.01 | 558% | 2 | 0.2 | 97.3 | 51.7 | 18 |
| Martín Zubimendi | M | 78 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 15549% | 1 | 0.1 | 94.5 | 30.3 | 18 |
| Rodri | M | 93 | 0 | 0.14 | 0.06 | 139% | 3 | 1.0 | 98.3 | 50.5 | 15 |
| Dani Olmo | M | 70 | 0 | 0.26 | 0.07 | 293% | 1 | 0.9 | 92.5 | 50.9 | 19 |
| Ferran Torres | F | 63 | 1 | 0.66 | 0.21 | 218% | 3 | 1.4 | 90.2 | 65.5 | 13 |
| Team totals | 2 | 2.70 | | 14 | | 92.6 | |
2J — projected line vs season baseline (4-4-2)
| Player | Pos | Min | Proj G | Proj xG | Season xG/g | | Proj Sh | Season Sh/g | Proj Rtg | Season Rtg | Rec |
|---|
| 2J G1 | G | 90 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | | - | 6.8 | - | 0 |
| 2J D1 | D | 90 | 0 | 0.01 | - | n/a | 0 | - | 6.8 | - | 0 |
| 2J D2 | D | 90 | 0 | 0.01 | - | n/a | 0 | - | 6.8 | - | 0 |
| 2J D3 | D | 90 | 0 | 0.01 | - | n/a | 0 | - | 6.8 | - | 0 |
| 2J D4 | D | 90 | 0 | 0.01 | - | n/a | 0 | - | 6.8 | - | 0 |
| 2J M1 | M | 90 | 0 | 0.06 | - | n/a | 1 | - | 6.9 | - | 0 |
| 2J M2 | M | 90 | 0 | 0.06 | - | n/a | 1 | - | 6.9 | - | 0 |
| 2J M3 | M | 90 | 0 | 0.06 | - | n/a | 1 | - | 6.9 | - | 0 |
| 2J M4 | M | 90 | 0 | 0.06 | - | n/a | 1 | - | 6.9 | - | 0 |
| 2J F1 | F | 90 | 0 | 0.11 | - | n/a | 2 | - | 6.9 | - | 0 |
| 2J F2 | F | 90 | 0 | 0.17 | - | n/a | 2 | - | 6.9 | - | 0 |
| Team totals | 0 | 0.70 | | 10 | | 6.8 | |
Antagonist / tactical summary
Home midfield dominates with ~55% possession expected (Lamine Yamal vs 2J M1). Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.76, Away: 0.34. Home danger zone: Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle.
Midfield — possession 54.9% / 45.1%, dominance ratio 0.67, key duel: Lamine Yamal vs 2J M1
Lamine Yamal xG 0.32Pedri xG 0.05Rodri xG 0.082J F1 xG 0.152J M1 xG 0.072J M4 xG 0.07
Summary
Antagonist matchup analysis for Spain vs 2J. Most likely scoreline: 2-0. Lambdas derived from 5 home and 4 away individual player duels.
4-2-3-1 creates structural superiority against 4-4-2. Home team should exploit wider spaces and numerical advantages in transition. Home midfield dominates with ~55% possession expected (Lamine Yamal vs 2J M1). Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.76, Away: 0.34. Home danger zone: Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle.
Switzerland vs 3E/3F/3G/3I/3J
FIFA World Cup · 20260702 · 3-5-2 vs 4-4-2
Predicted 1-1Winner: SwitzerlandConfidence 0.77λ home/away 1.96 / 1.05Most-likely P 10.7%
Actual vs predicted: result not available yet (upcoming fixture).
Lambda decomposition (how the goal rates were built)
| Stage | Switzerland λ | 3E/3F/3G/3I/3J λ |
|---|
| Pre-mismatch | 1.706 | 0.756 |
| Pre-competitive-floor | 1.964 | 0.719 |
| Pre-calibration | 1.706 | 0.756 |
| Final λ | 1.964 | 1.050 |
competition calibration scale 1.0competition observed total goals 0.0quality gap applied Truemismatch score pressure applied Truecompetitive underdog floor applied Truestage discount 1.0
Scoreline distribution & markets
| Top 5 scorelines | P |
|---|
| 1-1 | 10.7% |
| 1-0 | 10.6% |
| 2-0 | 9.9% |
| 2-1 | 9.9% |
| 3-0 | 6.2% |
| Home win | 57.6% |
| Draw | 22.5% |
| Away win | 19.8% |
| Over 2.5 | 54.5% |
| BTTS yes | 53.4% |
Pregame fair line — favorite Switzerland (57.6%), fair total 3.01, fair spread 0.91
Projected players vs season baseline
Proj = projected for this match · Season = this season's per-game average from match data · deviation badge compares projected xG to the player's season xG/game.
Switzerland — projected line vs season baseline (3-5-2)
| Player | Pos | Min | Proj G | Proj xG | Season xG/g | | Proj Sh | Season Sh/g | Proj Rtg | Season Rtg | Rec |
|---|
| Gregor Kobel | G | 95 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | | 0.0 | 93.6 | 36.6 | 16 |
| Manuel Akanji | D | 91 | 0 | 0.30 | 0.02 | 1503% | 0 | 0.1 | 89.3 | 21.1 | 14 |
| Luca Jaquez | D | 45 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | 0 | 0.0 | 75.6 | 26.9 | 17 |
| Aurèle Amenda | D | 90 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | 0 | 0.0 | 77.5 | 10.7 | 18 |
| Johan Manzambi | M | 84 | 0 | 0.45 | 0.09 | 382% | 2 | 1.1 | 74.4 | 41.6 | 25 |
| Dan Ndoye | M | 86 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.03 | 309% | 2 | 0.6 | 86.2 | 18.2 | 23 |
| Ardon Jashari | M | 55 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 100% | 1 | 0.1 | 83.8 | 13.1 | 15 |
| Denis Zakaria | M | 93 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.04 | 74% | 1 | 0.3 | 89.0 | 16.6 | 16 |
| Rubén Vargas | M | 68 | 0 | 0.23 | 0.07 | 231% | 1 | 0.7 | 82.0 | 31.8 | 18 |
| Noah Okafor | F | 90 | 0 | 0.19 | 0.01 | 3382% | 2 | 0.1 | 83.1 | 4.9 | 14 |
| Breel Embolo | F | 80 | 1 | 0.60 | 0.27 | 119% | 2 | 1.0 | 84.0 | 32.7 | 15 |
| Team totals | 1 | 1.96 | | 11 | | 83.5 | |
3E/3F/3G/3I/3J — projected line vs season baseline (4-4-2)
| Player | Pos | Min | Proj G | Proj xG | Season xG/g | | Proj Sh | Season Sh/g | Proj Rtg | Season Rtg | Rec |
|---|
| 3E/3F/3G G1 | G | 90 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | | - | 6.8 | - | 0 |
| 3E/3F/3G D1 | D | 90 | 0 | 0.02 | - | n/a | 0 | - | 6.8 | - | 0 |
| 3E/3F/3G D2 | D | 90 | 0 | 0.02 | - | n/a | 0 | - | 6.8 | - | 0 |
| 3E/3F/3G D3 | D | 90 | 0 | 0.02 | - | n/a | 0 | - | 6.8 | - | 0 |
| 3E/3F/3G D4 | D | 90 | 0 | 0.02 | - | n/a | 0 | - | 6.8 | - | 0 |
| 3E/3F/3G M1 | M | 90 | 0 | 0.09 | - | n/a | 1 | - | 6.9 | - | 0 |
| 3E/3F/3G M2 | M | 90 | 0 | 0.09 | - | n/a | 1 | - | 6.9 | - | 0 |
| 3E/3F/3G M3 | M | 90 | 0 | 0.09 | - | n/a | 1 | - | 6.9 | - | 0 |
| 3E/3F/3G M4 | M | 90 | 0 | 0.09 | - | n/a | 1 | - | 6.9 | - | 0 |
| 3E/3F/3G F1 | F | 90 | 0 | 0.17 | - | n/a | 2 | - | 6.9 | - | 0 |
| 3E/3F/3G F2 | F | 90 | 1 | 0.26 | - | n/a | 2 | - | 6.9 | - | 0 |
| Team totals | 1 | 1.05 | | 10 | | 6.8 | |
Antagonist / tactical summary
Home midfield dominates with ~54% possession expected (Johan Manzambi vs 3E/3F/3G M1). Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.46, Away: 0.35. Home danger zone: Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle.
Midfield — possession 53.7% / 46.3%, dominance ratio 0.61, key duel: Johan Manzambi vs 3E/3F/3G M1
Noah Okafor xG 0.10Ardon Jashari xG 0.12Rubén Vargas xG 0.133E/3F/3G F1 xG 0.153E/3F/3G M1 xG 0.083E/3F/3G M4 xG 0.07
Summary
Antagonist matchup analysis for Switzerland vs 3E/3F/3G/3I/3J. Most likely scoreline: 1-1. Lambdas derived from 5 home and 4 away individual player duels.
Tactical parity between 3-5-2 and 4-4-2. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Home midfield dominates with ~54% possession expected (Johan Manzambi vs 3E/3F/3G M1). Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.46, Away: 0.35. Home danger zone: Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle.
Switzerland vs Algeria
World Championship · 20260702 · 4-2-3-1 vs 4-2-3-1
Predicted 1-0Winner: SwitzerlandConfidence 0.69λ home/away 1.12 / 1.02Most-likely P 13.8%
Actual vs predicted: result not available yet (upcoming fixture).
Lambda decomposition (how the goal rates were built)
| Stage | Switzerland λ | Algeria λ |
|---|
| Pre-competitive-floor | 1.123 | 0.760 |
| Pre-calibration | 1.123 | 0.760 |
| Final λ | 1.123 | 1.020 |
competition calibration scale 1.0competition observed total goals 0.0quality gap applied Falsemismatch score pressure applied Falsecompetitive underdog floor applied Truestage discount 1.0
Scoreline distribution & markets
| Top 5 scorelines | P |
|---|
| 1-0 | 13.8% |
| 1-1 | 13.6% |
| 0-0 | 13.2% |
| 0-1 | 12.5% |
| 2-0 | 7.4% |
| Home win | 37.2% |
| Draw | 30.7% |
| Away win | 32.1% |
| Over 2.5 | 33.3% |
| BTTS yes | 40.8% |
Pregame fair line — favorite Switzerland (37.2%), fair total 2.14, fair spread 0.10
Projected players vs season baseline
Proj = projected for this match · Season = this season's per-game average from match data · deviation badge compares projected xG to the player's season xG/game.
Switzerland — projected line vs season baseline (4-2-3-1)
| Player | Pos | Min | Proj G | Proj xG | Season xG/g | | Proj Sh | Season Sh/g | Proj Rtg | Season Rtg | Rec |
|---|
| Breel Embolo | F | 71 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.27 | ok | 2 | 1.0 | 84.1 | 32.7 | 15 |
| Rubén Vargas | M | 50 | 0 | 0.12 | 0.07 | 65% | 2 | 0.7 | 81.9 | 31.8 | 18 |
| Johan Manzambi | M | 81 | 1 | 0.25 | 0.09 | 161% | 2 | 1.1 | 74.6 | 41.6 | 25 |
| Dan Ndoye | M | 83 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 100% | 1 | 0.6 | 86.2 | 18.2 | 23 |
| Granit Xhaka | M | 88 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.05 | ok | 2 | 0.3 | 92.3 | 29.7 | 18 |
| Remo Freuler | M | 81 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 100% | 0 | 0.3 | 87.7 | 37.9 | 18 |
| Ricardo Rodríguez | D | 84 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 100% | 0 | 0.1 | 80.5 | 33.8 | 18 |
| Manuel Akanji | D | 92 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.02 | 1222% | 0 | 0.1 | 89.3 | 21.1 | 14 |
| Nico Elvedi | D | 90 | 0 | 0.17 | 0.03 | 496% | 0 | 0.2 | 84.1 | 26.9 | 16 |
| Luca Jaquez | D | 45 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | 0 | 0.0 | 75.6 | 26.9 | 17 |
| Gregor Kobel | G | 95 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | | 0.0 | 93.6 | 36.6 | 16 |
| Team totals | 1 | 1.12 | | 10 | | 84.5 | |
Algeria — projected line vs season baseline (4-2-3-1)
| Player | Pos | Min | Proj G | Proj xG | Season xG/g | | Proj Sh | Season Sh/g | Proj Rtg | Season Rtg | Rec |
|---|
| Amine Gouiri | F | 83 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.20 | 97% | 1 | 1.2 | 86.2 | 67.0 | 6 |
| Farès Chaïbi | M | 64 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.08 | 38% | 1 | 1.6 | 80.8 | 57.9 | 8 |
| Riyad Mahrez | M | 84 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.25 | 61% | 2 | 1.8 | 91.0 | 64.9 | 8 |
| Ibrahim Maza | F | 93 | 0 | 0.26 | 0.24 | ok | 2 | 2.2 | 78.4 | 50.6 | 12 |
| Nabil Bentaleb | M | 69 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 100% | 1 | 0.6 | 84.0 | 70.6 | 8 |
| Houssem Aouar | M | 74 | 0 | 0.15 | 0.29 | 49% | 2 | 2.0 | 83.6 | 60.6 | 7 |
| Rayan Aït-Nouri | D | 57 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.02 | 296% | 0 | 0.2 | 88.4 | 44.2 | 12 |
| Ramy Bensebaini | D | 90 | 0 | 0.17 | 0.09 | 99% | 1 | 0.8 | 86.3 | 73.4 | 5 |
| Aïssa Mandi | D | 79 | 0 | 0.17 | 0.01 | 1075% | 0 | 0.3 | 82.0 | 52.9 | 13 |
| Rafik Belghali | M | 83 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 100% | 2 | 0.4 | 72.8 | 46.4 | 10 |
| Oussama Benbot | G | 88 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | | 0.0 | 87.0 | 13.0 | 4 |
| Team totals | 0 | 1.02 | | 12 | | 83.7 | |
Antagonist / tactical summary
Midfield is evenly contested — Johan Manzambi vs Farès Chaïbi will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.81, Away: 0.57. Home danger zone: Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle.
Midfield — possession 51.1% / 48.9%, dominance ratio 0.55, key duel: Johan Manzambi vs Farès Chaïbi
Johan Manzambi xG 0.32Granit Xhaka xG 0.05Rubén Vargas xG 0.09Riyad Mahrez xG 0.09Houssem Aouar xG 0.12Rafik Belghali xG 0.11
Summary
Antagonist matchup analysis for Switzerland vs Algeria. Most likely scoreline: 1-0. Lambdas derived from 5 home and 5 away individual player duels.
Tactical parity between 4-2-3-1 and 4-2-3-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Midfield is evenly contested — Johan Manzambi vs Farès Chaïbi will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.81, Away: 0.57. Home danger zone: Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle.
Spain vs Austria
World Championship · 20260702 · 4-3-3 vs 4-2-3-1
Predicted 2-0Winner: SpainConfidence 0.84λ home/away 2.51 / 0.68Most-likely P 13.7%
Actual vs predicted: result not available yet (upcoming fixture).
Lambda decomposition (how the goal rates were built)
| Stage | Spain λ | Austria λ |
|---|
| Pre-mismatch | 2.193 | 0.715 |
| Pre-calibration | 2.193 | 0.715 |
| Final λ | 2.508 | 0.682 |
competition calibration scale 1.0competition observed total goals 0.0quality gap applied Truemismatch score pressure applied Truecompetitive underdog floor applied Falsestage discount 1.0
Scoreline distribution & markets
| Top 5 scorelines | P |
|---|
| 2-0 | 13.7% |
| 1-0 | 11.5% |
| 3-0 | 10.9% |
| 2-1 | 8.9% |
| 1-1 | 7.5% |
| Home win | 76.0% |
| Draw | 15.8% |
| Away win | 8.2% |
| Over 2.5 | 58.4% |
| BTTS yes | 43.3% |
Pregame fair line — favorite Spain (76.0%), fair total 3.19, fair spread 1.83
Projected players vs season baseline
Proj = projected for this match · Season = this season's per-game average from match data · deviation badge compares projected xG to the player's season xG/game.
Spain — projected line vs season baseline (4-3-3)
| Player | Pos | Min | Proj G | Proj xG | Season xG/g | | Proj Sh | Season Sh/g | Proj Rtg | Season Rtg | Rec |
|---|
| Alex Baena | M | 39 | 0 | 0.23 | 0.04 | 466% | 2 | 0.9 | 91.2 | 46.3 | 21 |
| Mikel Oyarzabal | F | 62 | 1 | 0.36 | 0.30 | ok | 2 | 1.8 | 94.4 | 54.8 | 13 |
| Lamine Yamal | M | 95 | 1 | 0.67 | 0.25 | 171% | 2 | 2.0 | 97.2 | 45.9 | 18 |
| Pedri | M | 79 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 100% | 0 | 0.2 | 97.2 | 51.7 | 18 |
| Dani Olmo | M | 54 | 0 | 0.14 | 0.07 | 106% | 1 | 0.9 | 92.5 | 50.9 | 19 |
| Rodri | M | 95 | 0 | 0.17 | 0.06 | 183% | 2 | 1.0 | 98.2 | 50.5 | 15 |
| Marc Cucurella | D | 95 | 0 | 0.38 | 0.02 | 1629% | 0 | 0.2 | 91.3 | 46.3 | 16 |
| Aymeric Laporte | D | 90 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.02 | 361% | 1 | 0.4 | 89.3 | 46.4 | 14 |
| Pau Cubarsí | D | 90 | 0 | 0.21 | 0.01 | 1950% | 0 | 0.2 | 90.0 | 43.7 | 18 |
| Marcos Llorente | D | 92 | 0 | 0.12 | 0.02 | 384% | 0 | 0.4 | 91.5 | 40.0 | 21 |
| Unai Simón | G | 94 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | | 0.0 | 92.0 | 41.5 | 15 |
| Team totals | 2 | 2.51 | | 11 | | 93.2 | |
Austria — projected line vs season baseline (4-2-3-1)
| Player | Pos | Min | Proj G | Proj xG | Season xG/g | | Proj Sh | Season Sh/g | Proj Rtg | Season Rtg | Rec |
|---|
| Alexander Prass | M | 90 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 1766% | 2 | 0.1 | 80.8 | 22.6 | 11 |
| David Alaba | D | 59 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.01 | 251% | 0 | 0.2 | 89.0 | 40.9 | 12 |
| Philipp Lienhart | D | 70 | 0 | 0.16 | 0.06 | 185% | 1 | 0.4 | 85.5 | 50.2 | 16 |
| Stefan Posch | D | 70 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.05 | 55% | 1 | 0.8 | 85.1 | 54.1 | 8 |
| Alexander Schlager | G | 88 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | | 0.0 | 79.6 | 62.7 | 10 |
| Nicolas Seiwald | M | 78 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 100% | 1 | 0.5 | 84.3 | 60.1 | 8 |
| Xaver Schlager | M | 74 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 100% | 1 | 0.3 | 86.9 | 36.6 | 11 |
| Konrad Laimer | D | 79 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.04 | 53% | 0 | 0.2 | 88.9 | 48.9 | 16 |
| Romano Schmid | M | 67 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 100% | 2 | 0.8 | 84.5 | 61.0 | 8 |
| Marko Arnautović | F | 50 | 0 | 0.17 | 0.27 | 35% | 2 | 0.9 | 93.9 | 49.9 | 7 |
| Marcel Sabitzer | M | 88 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.05 | 81% | 2 | 0.8 | 86.8 | 54.7 | 9 |
| Team totals | 0 | 0.68 | | 13 | | 85.9 | |
Antagonist / tactical summary
Home midfield dominates with ~52% possession expected (Lamine Yamal vs Nicolas Seiwald). Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.74, Away: 0.69. Home danger zone: Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel. Away danger zone: Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle.
Midfield — possession 52.3% / 47.7%, dominance ratio 0.60, key duel: Lamine Yamal vs Nicolas Seiwald
Mikel Oyarzabal xG 0.15Rodri xG 0.09Alex Baena xG 0.07Romano Schmid xG 0.25Marcel Sabitzer xG 0.10Alexander Prass xG 0.04
Summary
Antagonist matchup analysis for Spain vs Austria. Most likely scoreline: 2-0. Lambdas derived from 5 home and 5 away individual player duels.
Tactical parity between 4-3-3 and 4-2-3-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Home midfield dominates with ~52% possession expected (Lamine Yamal vs Nicolas Seiwald). Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.74, Away: 0.69. Home danger zone: Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel. Away danger zone: Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle.
Portugal vs Croatia
World Championship · 20260702 · 4-2-3-1 vs 4-2-3-1
Predicted 1-0Winner: PortugalConfidence 0.79λ home/away 1.97 / 0.68Most-likely P 15.0%
Actual vs predicted: result not available yet (upcoming fixture).
Lambda decomposition (how the goal rates were built)
| Stage | Portugal λ | Croatia λ |
|---|
| Pre-calibration | 1.971 | 0.683 |
| Final λ | 1.971 | 0.683 |
competition calibration scale 1.0competition observed total goals 0.0quality gap applied Truemismatch score pressure applied Falsecompetitive underdog floor applied Falsestage discount 1.0
Scoreline distribution & markets
| Top 5 scorelines | P |
|---|
| 1-0 | 15.0% |
| 2-0 | 14.1% |
| 1-1 | 9.8% |
| 2-1 | 9.1% |
| 3-0 | 8.8% |
| Home win | 66.6% |
| Draw | 21.3% |
| Away win | 12.1% |
| Over 2.5 | 46.2% |
| BTTS yes | 40.5% |
Pregame fair line — favorite Portugal (66.6%), fair total 2.65, fair spread 1.29
Projected players vs season baseline
Proj = projected for this match · Season = this season's per-game average from match data · deviation badge compares projected xG to the player's season xG/game.
Portugal — projected line vs season baseline (4-2-3-1)
| Player | Pos | Min | Proj G | Proj xG | Season xG/g | | Proj Sh | Season Sh/g | Proj Rtg | Season Rtg | Rec |
|---|
| Cristiano Ronaldo | F | 89 | 1 | 0.86 | 0.54 | 57% | 2 | 3.2 | 92.1 | 63.4 | 9 |
| João Félix | F | 95 | 0 | 0.29 | 0.20 | 44% | 2 | 1.4 | 86.7 | 40.1 | 11 |
| Bruno Fernandes | M | 95 | 0 | 0.13 | 0.11 | ok | 2 | 1.4 | 95.0 | 51.2 | 12 |
| Pedro Neto | M | 87 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 100% | 1 | 0.3 | 87.3 | 46.8 | 13 |
| Vitinha | M | 90 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 100% | 1 | 0.7 | 97.0 | 62.5 | 15 |
| Rúben Neves | M | 47 | 0 | 0.17 | 0.17 | ok | 2 | 0.9 | 91.0 | 43.9 | 10 |
| Nuno Mendes | D | 87 | 0 | 0.12 | 0.02 | 439% | 0 | 0.5 | 94.0 | 65.9 | 12 |
| Renato Veiga | D | 95 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 100% | 0 | 0.2 | 83.6 | 41.4 | 12 |
| Rúben Dias | D | 90 | 0 | 0.30 | 0.01 | 2341% | 0 | 0.1 | 93.9 | 32.5 | 15 |
| João Cancelo | D | 63 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.02 | 399% | 1 | 0.5 | 90.7 | 48.1 | 17 |
| Diogo Costa | G | 95 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | | 0.0 | 91.8 | 64.0 | 13 |
| Team totals | 1 | 1.97 | | 11 | | 91.2 | |
Croatia — projected line vs season baseline (4-2-3-1)
| Player | Pos | Min | Proj G | Proj xG | Season xG/g | | Proj Sh | Season Sh/g | Proj Rtg | Season Rtg | Rec |
|---|
| Luka Modrić | M | 53 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 100% | 1 | 0.3 | 90.1 | 59.3 | 6 |
| Marin Pongračić | D | 71 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.01 | 387% | 0 | 0.1 | 80.8 | 58.4 | 7 |
| Joško Gvardiol | D | 48 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.03 | 277% | 1 | 0.2 | 91.3 | 39.3 | 10 |
| Josip Šutalo | D | 92 | 0 | 0.12 | 0.03 | 251% | 0 | 0.2 | 85.1 | 68.2 | 5 |
| Josip Stanišić | D | 77 | 0 | 0.18 | 0.08 | 107% | 0 | 0.4 | 85.1 | 62.4 | 14 |
| Dominik Livaković | G | 89 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | | 0.0 | 86.8 | 69.2 | 9 |
| Mateo Kovačić | M | 47 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 100% | 1 | 0.5 | 89.9 | 39.9 | 12 |
| Martin Baturina | M | 82 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.06 | 42% | 2 | 1.1 | 85.6 | 62.6 | 8 |
| Ivan Perišić | M | 80 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 100% | 2 | 0.8 | 88.0 | 55.6 | 8 |
| Ante Budimir | F | 75 | 0 | 0.17 | 0.24 | ok | 2 | 1.6 | 88.3 | 34.8 | 11 |
| Petar Sučić | M | 77 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 100% | 2 | 0.8 | 81.6 | 63.8 | 8 |
| Team totals | 0 | 0.68 | | 12 | | 86.6 | |
Antagonist / tactical summary
Home midfield dominates with ~51% possession expected (Vitinha vs Petar Sučić). Total antagonist xG — Home: 1.06, Away: 0.83. Home danger zone: Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle. Away danger zone: Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle.
Midfield — possession 51.1% / 48.9%, dominance ratio 0.56, key duel: Vitinha vs Petar Sučić
Bruno Fernandes xG 0.10Cristiano Ronaldo xG 0.57Rúben Neves xG 0.10Ivan Perišić xG 0.20Petar Sučić xG 0.30Martin Baturina xG 0.03
Summary
Antagonist matchup analysis for Portugal vs Croatia. Most likely scoreline: 1-0. Lambdas derived from 5 home and 5 away individual player duels.
Tactical parity between 4-2-3-1 and 4-2-3-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Home midfield dominates with ~51% possession expected (Vitinha vs Petar Sučić). Total antagonist xG — Home: 1.06, Away: 0.83. Home danger zone: Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle. Away danger zone: Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle.
Switzerland vs Ecuador
FIFA World Cup · 20260702 · 3-5-2 vs 4-2-3-1
Predicted 0-0Winner: EcuadorConfidence 0.66λ home/away 0.77 / 1.02Most-likely P 18.3%
Actual vs predicted: result not available yet (upcoming fixture).
Lambda decomposition (how the goal rates were built)
| Stage | Switzerland λ | Ecuador λ |
|---|
| Pre-competitive-floor | 0.773 | 0.654 |
| Pre-calibration | 0.773 | 0.654 |
| Final λ | 0.773 | 1.020 |
competition calibration scale 1.0competition observed total goals 0.0quality gap applied Falsemismatch score pressure applied Falsecompetitive underdog floor applied Truestage discount 1.0
Scoreline distribution & markets
| Top 5 scorelines | P |
|---|
| 0-0 | 18.3% |
| 0-1 | 17.5% |
| 1-0 | 13.2% |
| 1-1 | 13.1% |
| 0-2 | 8.6% |
| Home win | 26.5% |
| Draw | 33.9% |
| Away win | 39.6% |
| Over 2.5 | 24.4% |
| BTTS yes | 32.4% |
Pregame fair line — favorite Ecuador (39.6%), fair total 1.79, fair spread -0.25
Projected players vs season baseline
Proj = projected for this match · Season = this season's per-game average from match data · deviation badge compares projected xG to the player's season xG/game.
Switzerland — projected line vs season baseline (3-5-2)
| Player | Pos | Min | Proj G | Proj xG | Season xG/g | | Proj Sh | Season Sh/g | Proj Rtg | Season Rtg | Rec |
|---|
| Gregor Kobel | G | 95 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | | 0.0 | 93.6 | 36.6 | 16 |
| Manuel Akanji | D | 91 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.02 | 444% | 0 | 0.1 | 89.3 | 21.1 | 14 |
| Bruno Ogbus | D | 72 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.01 | 625% | 0 | 0.2 | 65.8 | 48.2 | 11 |
| Luca Jaquez | D | 45 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | 0 | 0.0 | 75.6 | 26.9 | 17 |
| Johan Manzambi | M | 83 | 0 | 0.15 | 0.09 | 62% | 2 | 1.1 | 74.8 | 41.6 | 25 |
| Dan Ndoye | M | 86 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.03 | 39% | 1 | 0.6 | 86.3 | 18.2 | 23 |
| Ardon Jashari | M | 55 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 100% | 1 | 0.1 | 83.8 | 13.1 | 15 |
| Denis Zakaria | M | 93 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.04 | 39% | 1 | 0.3 | 89.0 | 16.6 | 16 |
| Rubén Vargas | M | 68 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.07 | ok | 1 | 0.7 | 81.9 | 31.8 | 18 |
| Noah Okafor | F | 90 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.01 | 1120% | 2 | 0.1 | 83.2 | 4.9 | 14 |
| Breel Embolo | F | 80 | 0 | 0.20 | 0.27 | ok | 2 | 1.0 | 84.1 | 32.7 | 15 |
| Team totals | 0 | 0.77 | | 10 | | 82.5 | |
Ecuador — projected line vs season baseline (4-2-3-1)
| Player | Pos | Min | Proj G | Proj xG | Season xG/g | | Proj Sh | Season Sh/g | Proj Rtg | Season Rtg | Rec |
|---|
| Gonzalo Valle | G | 88 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | | 0.0 | 76.8 | 19.6 | 22 |
| Willian Pacho | D | 93 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.01 | 1330% | 0 | 0.1 | 93.3 | 68.0 | 10 |
| Piero Hincapié | D | 90 | 0 | 0.13 | 0.05 | 154% | 0 | 0.5 | 90.0 | 53.1 | 14 |
| Joel Ordóñez | D | 68 | 0 | 0.28 | 0.03 | 1013% | 0 | 0.2 | 81.5 | 59.5 | 8 |
| Pervis Estupiñán | D | 75 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | 0 | 0.0 | 85.9 | 25.5 | 8 |
| Moisés Caicedo | M | 90 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.02 | 34% | 1 | 0.5 | 94.5 | 52.8 | 11 |
| Nilson Angulo | M | 79 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.03 | 109% | 2 | 0.5 | 73.8 | 39.5 | 12 |
| Keny Arroyo | M | 61 | 0 | 0.14 | 0.09 | 46% | 2 | 0.6 | 83.9 | 26.5 | 8 |
| Kendry Páez | M | 52 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.03 | ok | 2 | 0.1 | 79.8 | 20.2 | 10 |
| Gonzalo Plata | M | 90 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.11 | 47% | 2 | 0.8 | 89.4 | 30.1 | 14 |
| Jeremy Arevalo | F | 90 | 0 | 0.12 | - | n/a | 2 | 0.0 | 91.8 | - | 4 |
| Team totals | 0 | 1.02 | | 12 | | 85.5 | |
Antagonist / tactical summary
Midfield is evenly contested — Johan Manzambi vs Moisés Caicedo will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.59, Away: 0.29. Home danger zone: Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle.
Midfield — possession 51.2% / 48.8%, dominance ratio 0.53, key duel: Johan Manzambi vs Moisés Caicedo
Noah Okafor xG 0.10Ardon Jashari xG 0.11Rubén Vargas xG 0.09Nilson Angulo xG 0.05Keny Arroyo xG 0.09Gonzalo Plata xG 0.03
Summary
Antagonist matchup analysis for Switzerland vs Ecuador. Most likely scoreline: 0-0. Lambdas derived from 5 home and 5 away individual player duels.
Tactical parity between 3-5-2 and 4-2-3-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Midfield is evenly contested — Johan Manzambi vs Moisés Caicedo will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.59, Away: 0.29. Home danger zone: Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle.
Generated 2026-09-04 22:27:55 UTC · Soccer prediction reporting