Soccer predictions: actual data vs predicted data

Slate 20260703 · 5 match(es)

How to read this report. Each match shows the model's headline prediction, the stage-by-stage lambda (goal-rate) build, both teams' standing/form inputs, and every starter's projected line next to their real season baseline. A moderate / large deviation badge flags a projection that strays far from the player's season form — a quick way to spot when the inputs look right but a projection does not. When the real result is known an actual-vs-predicted banner appears.

All matches overview

Match	Score	Winner	H / D / A	O2.5	BTTS	Conf	λ H/A	Actual	Result
Australia vs G2 FIFA World Cup	1-1	Australia	54.2% / 24.0% / 21.8%	51.0%	51.9%	0.76	1.81 / 1.05	-	pending
Argentina vs H2 FIFA World Cup	2-0	Argentina	70.9% / 18.7% / 10.4%	52.3%	42.6%	0.81	2.22 / 0.70	-	pending
Argentina vs Cabo Verde World Championship	3-0	Argentina	86.1% / 9.6% / 4.3%	72.5%	44.1%	0.9	3.32 / 0.65	-	pending
Australia vs Egypt World Championship	0-1	Egypt	31.3% / 30.3% / 38.4%	34.4%	41.7%	0.7	1.02 / 1.17	-	pending
Colombia vs Ghana World Championship	1-0	Colombia	36.8% / 30.9% / 32.4%	33.0%	40.6%	0.69	1.11 / 1.02	-	pending

Match detail

Australia vs G2

FIFA World Cup · 20260703 · 5-3-2 vs 4-4-2

Predicted 1-1Winner: AustraliaConfidence 0.76λ home/away 1.81 / 1.05Most-likely P 11.4%

Actual vs predicted: result not available yet (upcoming fixture).

Lambda decomposition (how the goal rates were built)

Stage	Australia λ	G2 λ
Pre-mismatch	1.662	0.756
Pre-competitive-floor	1.810	0.738
Pre-calibration	1.662	0.756
Final λ	1.810	1.050

competition calibration scale 1.0competition observed total goals 0.0quality gap applied Truemismatch score pressure applied Truecompetitive underdog floor applied Truestage discount 1.0

Scoreline distribution & markets

Top 5 scorelines	P
1-1	11.4%
1-0	11.3%
2-0	9.8%
2-1	9.7%
0-0	6.7%

Home win	54.2%
Draw	24.0%
Away win	21.8%
Over 2.5	51.0%
BTTS yes	51.9%

Pregame fair line — favorite Australia (54.2%), fair total 2.86, fair spread 0.76

Projected players vs season baseline

Proj = projected for this match · Season = this season's per-game average from match data · deviation badge compares projected xG to the player's season xG/game.

Australia — projected line vs season baseline (5-3-2)

Player	Pos	Min	Proj G	Proj xG	Season xG/g		Proj Sh	Season Sh/g	Proj Rtg	Season Rtg	Rec
Mathew Ryan	G	88	0	0.00	-	n/a		0.0	92.7	27.2	11
Alessandro Circati	D	90	0	0.48	0.08	529%	0	0.3	78.2	60.1	7
Jordan Bos	D	89	0	0.29	0.07	304%	1	1.3	75.6	48.6	7
Harry Souttar	D	89	0	0.22	0.01	2211%	0	0.2	79.8	52.5	4
Lucas Herrington	D	88	0	0.00	-	n/a	0	0.0	65.9	21.0	10
Cameron Burgess	D	66	0	0.00	-	n/a	0	0.0	79.0	32.0	4
Cristian Volpato	M	20	0	0.00	0.08	100%	2	0.5	75.5	40.8	8
Aiden O'Neill	M	88	0	0.00	0.00	100%	0	0.2	76.9	34.3	6
Connor Metcalfe	M	77	0	0.22	0.03	664%	2	0.9	75.4	51.2	8
Nestory Irankunda	F	76	1	0.33	0.10	219%	2	0.8	73.5	40.8	5
Mohamed Touré	F	73	0	0.25	0.02	1135%	2	0.5	74.4	32.8	4
Team totals			1	1.81			10			77.0

G2 — projected line vs season baseline (4-4-2)

Player	Pos	Min	Proj G	Proj xG	Season xG/g		Proj Sh	Season Sh/g	Proj Rtg	Season Rtg	Rec
G2 G1	G	90	0	0.00	-	n/a		-	6.8	-	0
G2 D1	D	90	0	0.02	-	n/a	0	-	6.8	-	0
G2 D2	D	90	0	0.02	-	n/a	0	-	6.8	-	0
G2 D3	D	90	0	0.02	-	n/a	0	-	6.8	-	0
G2 D4	D	90	0	0.02	-	n/a	0	-	6.8	-	0
G2 M1	M	90	0	0.10	-	n/a	1	-	6.9	-	0
G2 M2	M	90	0	0.10	-	n/a	2	-	6.9	-	0
G2 M3	M	90	0	0.10	-	n/a	2	-	6.9	-	0
G2 M4	M	90	0	0.10	-	n/a	1	-	6.9	-	0
G2 F1	F	90	1	0.19	-	n/a	2	-	6.9	-	0
G2 F2	F	90	0	0.19	-	n/a	2	-	6.9	-	0
Team totals			1	1.05			12			6.8

Antagonist / tactical summary

Midfield is evenly contested — Cristian Volpato vs G2 M1 will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.58, Away: 0.60. Home danger zone: Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle.

Midfield — possession 49.9% / 50.1%, dominance ratio 0.50, key duel: Cristian Volpato vs G2 M1

Jordan Bos xG 0.10Lucas Herrington xG 0.07Cristian Volpato xG 0.13G2 M1 xG 0.07G2 M2 xG 0.09G2 M3 xG 0.09

Summary

Antagonist matchup analysis for Australia vs G2. Most likely scoreline: 1-1. Lambdas derived from 6 home and 6 away individual player duels.

Tactical parity between 5-3-2 and 4-4-2. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Midfield is evenly contested — Cristian Volpato vs G2 M1 will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.58, Away: 0.60. Home danger zone: Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle.

Argentina vs H2

FIFA World Cup · 20260703 · 3-5-2 vs 4-4-2

Predicted 2-0Winner: ArgentinaConfidence 0.81λ home/away 2.22 / 0.70Most-likely P 13.9%

Actual vs predicted: result not available yet (upcoming fixture).

Lambda decomposition (how the goal rates were built)

Stage	Argentina λ	H2 λ
Pre-mismatch	1.810	0.756
Pre-calibration	1.810	0.756
Final λ	2.217	0.697

Scoreline distribution & markets

Top 5 scorelines	P
2-0	13.9%
1-0	13.2%
3-0	9.8%
2-1	9.2%
1-1	8.8%

Home win	70.9%
Draw	18.7%
Away win	10.4%
Over 2.5	52.3%
BTTS yes	42.6%

Pregame fair line — favorite Argentina (70.9%), fair total 2.91, fair spread 1.52

Projected players vs season baseline

Proj = projected for this match · Season = this season's per-game average from match data · deviation badge compares projected xG to the player's season xG/game.

Argentina — projected line vs season baseline (3-5-2)

Player	Pos	Min	Proj G	Proj xG	Season xG/g		Proj Sh	Season Sh/g	Proj Rtg	Season Rtg	Rec
Emiliano Martínez	G	92	0	0.00	-	n/a		0.0	92.0	48.4	20
Cristian Romero	D	92	0	0.13	0.03	329%	0	0.2	89.6	32.4	13
Lisandro Martínez	D	93	0	0.07	0.01	749%	0	0.2	88.8	38.2	13
Leonardo Balerdi	D	62	0	0.05	0.00	1744%	0	0.1	88.2	15.9	9
Alexis Mac Allister	M	91	0	0.17	0.13	33%	1	1.2	94.5	42.6	17
Enzo Fernández	M	88	0	0.24	0.09	180%	2	0.9	91.6	39.2	15
Nico Paz	M	69	0	0.08	0.01	816%	1	0.2	86.3	15.6	13
Giuliano Simeone	M	82	0	0.06	0.05	ok	1	0.4	88.1	31.2	23
Valentín Barco	M	74	0	0.32	0.09	250%	1	0.2	82.2	16.9	12
Julián Alvarez	F	84	1	0.41	0.25	64%	3	1.4	94.2	44.4	18
Lautaro Martínez	F	72	1	0.66	0.37	76%	2	1.3	95.2	55.1	10
Team totals			2	2.22			11			90.0

H2 — projected line vs season baseline (4-4-2)

Player	Pos	Min	Proj xG	Season xG/g		Proj Sh	Season Sh/g	Proj Rtg	Season Rtg	Rec
H2 G1	G	90	0.00	-	n/a		-	6.8	-	0
H2 D1	D	90	0.01	-	n/a	0	-	6.8	-	0
H2 D2	D	90	0.01	-	n/a	0	-	6.8	-	0
H2 D3	D	90	0.01	-	n/a	0	-	6.8	-	0
H2 D4	D	90	0.01	-	n/a	0	-	6.8	-	0
H2 M1	M	90	0.06	-	n/a	1	-	6.9	-	0
H2 M2	M	90	0.06	-	n/a	1	-	6.9	-	0
H2 M3	M	90	0.06	-	n/a	1	-	6.9	-	0
H2 M4	M	90	0.06	-	n/a	1	-	6.9	-	0
H2 F1	F	90	0.11	-	n/a	2	-	6.9	-	0
H2 F2	F	90	0.17	-	n/a	2	-	6.9	-	0
Team totals			0.70			10			6.8

Antagonist / tactical summary

Home midfield dominates with ~55% possession expected (Alexis Mac Allister vs H2 M1). Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.62, Away: 0.34. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle.

Midfield — possession 55.0% / 45.0%, dominance ratio 0.66, key duel: Alexis Mac Allister vs H2 M1

Julián Alvarez xG 0.19Giuliano Simeone xG 0.03Valentín Barco xG 0.17H2 F1 xG 0.15H2 M1 xG 0.07H2 M4 xG 0.06

Summary

Antagonist matchup analysis for Argentina vs H2. Most likely scoreline: 2-0. Lambdas derived from 5 home and 4 away individual player duels.

Tactical parity between 3-5-2 and 4-4-2. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Home midfield dominates with ~55% possession expected (Alexis Mac Allister vs H2 M1). Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.62, Away: 0.34. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle.

Argentina vs Cabo Verde

World Championship · 20260703 · 4-3-3 vs 4-1-4-1

Predicted 3-0Winner: ArgentinaConfidence 0.9λ home/away 3.32 / 0.65Most-likely P 12.1%

Actual vs predicted: result not available yet (upcoming fixture).

Lambda decomposition (how the goal rates were built)

Stage	Argentina λ	Cabo Verde λ
Pre-mismatch	2.810	0.669
Pre-calibration	2.810	0.669
Final λ	3.316	0.650

Scoreline distribution & markets

Top 5 scorelines	P
3-0	12.1%
2-0	11.5%
4-0	9.5%
3-1	7.4%
1-0	7.3%

Home win	86.1%
Draw	9.6%
Away win	4.3%
Over 2.5	72.5%
BTTS yes	44.1%

Pregame fair line — favorite Argentina (86.1%), fair total 3.97, fair spread 2.67

Projected players vs season baseline

Proj = projected for this match · Season = this season's per-game average from match data · deviation badge compares projected xG to the player's season xG/game.

Argentina — projected line vs season baseline (4-3-3)

Player	Pos	Min	Proj G	Proj xG	Season xG/g		Proj Sh	Season Sh/g	Proj Rtg	Season Rtg	Rec
Thiago Almada	M	55	0	0.00	0.00	100%	1	0.1	85.7	31.3	15
Lautaro Martínez	F	58	1	0.49	0.37	31%	3	1.3	95.2	55.1	10
Lionel Messi	F	76	2	1.55	0.49	215%	2	2.8	94.3	51.8	12
Rodrigo De Paul	M	85	0	0.00	0.10	100%	2	0.5	91.0	38.3	11
Enzo Fernández	M	86	0	0.35	0.09	298%	2	0.9	91.5	39.2	15
Alexis Mac Allister	M	91	0	0.18	0.13	43%	2	1.2	94.5	42.6	17
Facundo Medina	D	67	0	0.00	-	n/a	0	0.0	86.1	31.3	9
Lisandro Martínez	D	95	0	0.12	0.01	1431%	0	0.2	88.8	38.2	13
Cristian Romero	D	93	0	0.25	0.03	706%	0	0.2	89.6	32.4	13
Nahuel Molina	D	64	0	0.23	0.01	3102%	0	0.1	85.8	41.9	14
Emiliano Martínez	G	91	0	0.00	-	n/a		0.0	91.9	48.4	20
Team totals			3	3.32			13			90.4

Cabo Verde — projected line vs season baseline (4-1-4-1)

Player	Pos	Min	Proj xG	Season xG/g		Proj Sh	Season Sh/g	Proj Rtg	Season Rtg	Rec
Kevin Lenini	M	83	0.10	0.02	305%	1	1.0	88.9	53.0	4
Sidny Lopes Cabral	D	57	0.03	0.01	540%	1	0.4	88.9	41.2	5
Diney Borges	D	88	0.08	0.03	123%	1	0.5	89.1	56.8	4
Pico	D	88	0.13	0.06	113%	1	0.5	87.1	55.0	4
Steven Moreira	D	67	0.01	0.00	558%	0	0.1	78.4	33.5	8
Vozinha	G	88	0.00	-	n/a		0.0	87.9	57.5	4
Ryan Mendes	M	82	0.06	0.05	ok	1	1.0	77.6	51.0	4
Deroy Duarte	M	54	0.00	0.01	100%	1	0.2	87.7	52.0	4
Jovane Cabral	F	50	0.12	0.11	ok	1	0.5	76.5	35.1	8
Dailon Rocha Livramento	F	53	0.02	0.05	51%	2	1.2	88.5	50.2	9
Jamiro Monteiro	M	64	0.07	0.04	46%	1	0.8	75.5	55.7	6
Team totals			0.65			10			84.2

Antagonist / tactical summary

Home midfield dominates with ~54% possession expected (Enzo Fernández vs Kevin Lenini). Total antagonist xG — Home: 1.24, Away: 0.28. Home danger zone: Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle. Away danger zone: Right Mid vs Left Back — Wide Channel.

Midfield — possession 54.1% / 45.9%, dominance ratio 0.63, key duel: Enzo Fernández vs Kevin Lenini

Enzo Fernández xG 0.16Alexis Mac Allister xG 0.09Lionel Messi xG 0.55Dailon Rocha Livramento xG 0.02Ryan Mendes xG 0.05Jovane Cabral xG 0.10

Summary

Antagonist matchup analysis for Argentina vs Cabo Verde. Most likely scoreline: 3-0. Lambdas derived from 5 home and 5 away individual player duels.

Tactical parity between 4-3-3 and 4-1-4-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Home midfield dominates with ~54% possession expected (Enzo Fernández vs Kevin Lenini). Total antagonist xG — Home: 1.24, Away: 0.28. Home danger zone: Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle. Away danger zone: Right Mid vs Left Back — Wide Channel.

Australia vs Egypt

World Championship · 20260703 · 3-4-2-1 vs 4-2-3-1

Predicted 0-1Winner: EgyptConfidence 0.7λ home/away 1.02 / 1.17Most-likely P 13.8%

Actual vs predicted: result not available yet (upcoming fixture).

Lambda decomposition (how the goal rates were built)

Stage	Australia λ	Egypt λ
Pre-competitive-floor	0.772	1.166
Pre-calibration	0.772	1.165
Final λ	1.020	1.166

competition calibration scale 1.0competition observed total goals 0.0quality gap applied Truemismatch score pressure applied Falsecompetitive underdog floor applied Truestage discount 1.0

Scoreline distribution & markets

Top 5 scorelines	P
0-1	13.8%
1-1	13.6%
0-0	12.7%
1-0	12.0%
0-2	7.7%

Home win	31.3%
Draw	30.3%
Away win	38.4%
Over 2.5	34.4%
BTTS yes	41.7%

Pregame fair line — favorite Egypt (38.4%), fair total 2.19, fair spread -0.15

Projected players vs season baseline

Proj = projected for this match · Season = this season's per-game average from match data · deviation badge compares projected xG to the player's season xG/game.

Australia — projected line vs season baseline (3-4-2-1)

Player	Pos	Min	Proj xG	Season xG/g		Proj Sh	Season Sh/g	Proj Rtg	Season Rtg	Rec
Nestory Irankunda	F	65	0.02	0.10	76%	2	0.8	73.5	40.8	5
Cristian Volpato	M	20	0.00	0.08	100%	1	0.5	75.5	40.8	8
Connor Metcalfe	M	66	0.21	0.03	604%	1	0.9	75.4	51.2	8
Aziz Behich	D	76	0.00	-	n/a	1	0.7	73.6	49.2	10
Aiden O'Neill	M	88	0.00	0.00	100%	2	0.2	76.9	34.3	6
Jackson Irvine	M	61	0.00	0.09	100%	1	0.7	81.6	57.0	7
Jordan Bos	D	89	0.23	0.07	219%	1	1.3	75.7	48.6	7
Lucas Herrington	D	89	0.00	-	n/a	0	0.0	66.0	21.0	10
Harry Souttar	D	89	0.07	0.01	626%	0	0.2	79.8	52.5	4
Alessandro Circati	D	92	0.47	0.08	524%	0	0.3	78.2	60.1	7
Patrick Beach	G	88	0.00	-	n/a		0.0	71.8	60.1	7
Team totals			1.02			10			75.3

Egypt — projected line vs season baseline (4-2-3-1)

Player	Pos	Min	Proj G	Proj xG	Season xG/g		Proj Sh	Season Sh/g	Proj Rtg	Season Rtg	Rec
Karim Hafez	D	41	0	0.04	0.01	496%	0	0.3	88.0	21.3	6
Hamdy Fathy	M	88	0	0.00	-	n/a	0	0.4	90.2	44.6	11
Yasser Ibrahim	D	85	0	0.00	0.02	100%	0	0.2	87.8	58.0	6
Mohamed Hany	D	88	0	0.04	0.02	118%	1	0.8	88.8	55.0	6
Mostafa Shobeir	G	88	0	0.00	-	n/a		0.0	89.1	62.2	6
Mahmoud Saber	M	44	0	0.31	0.03	1032%	3	0.6	88.5	15.0	5
Marwan Attia	M	78	0	0.00	0.00	100%	0	0.2	89.2	58.7	6
Mohamed Salah	M	73	1	0.36	0.28	ok	2	1.6	98.2	53.3	12
Emam Ashour	M	71	0	0.06	0.11	43%	2	1.2	88.4	56.2	6
Omar Marmoush	F	52	0	0.17	0.08	106%	3	1.1	91.6	44.7	14
Mostafa Ziko	M	75	0	0.15	0.20	ok	2	1.1	88.5	39.7	7
Team totals			1	1.17			13			89.8

Antagonist / tactical summary

Midfield is evenly contested — Cristian Volpato vs Mohamed Salah will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.51, Away: 0.54. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: CAM vs CM.

Midfield — possession 49.4% / 50.6%, dominance ratio 0.47, key duel: Cristian Volpato vs Mohamed Salah

Aziz Behich xG 0.19Nestory Irankunda xG 0.01Cristian Volpato xG 0.09Emam Ashour xG 0.04Mohamed Salah xG 0.28Mostafa Ziko xG 0.10

Summary

Antagonist matchup analysis for Australia vs Egypt. Most likely scoreline: 0-1. Lambdas derived from 5 home and 4 away individual player duels.

Tactical parity between 3-4-2-1 and 4-2-3-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Midfield is evenly contested — Cristian Volpato vs Mohamed Salah will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.51, Away: 0.54. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: CAM vs CM.

Colombia vs Ghana

World Championship · 20260703 · 4-3-3 vs 4-3-3

Predicted 1-0Winner: ColombiaConfidence 0.69λ home/away 1.11 / 1.02Most-likely P 13.8%

Actual vs predicted: result not available yet (upcoming fixture).

Lambda decomposition (how the goal rates were built)

Stage	Colombia λ	Ghana λ
Pre-competitive-floor	1.110	0.792
Pre-calibration	1.110	0.792
Final λ	1.110	1.020

Scoreline distribution & markets

Top 5 scorelines	P
1-0	13.8%
1-1	13.6%
0-0	13.4%
0-1	12.7%
2-0	7.3%

Home win	36.8%
Draw	30.9%
Away win	32.4%
Over 2.5	33.0%
BTTS yes	40.6%

Pregame fair line — favorite Colombia (36.8%), fair total 2.13, fair spread 0.09

Projected players vs season baseline

Proj = projected for this match · Season = this season's per-game average from match data · deviation badge compares projected xG to the player's season xG/game.

Colombia — projected line vs season baseline (4-3-3)

Player	Pos	Min	Proj G	Proj xG	Season xG/g		Proj Sh	Season Sh/g	Proj Rtg	Season Rtg	Rec
Luis Díaz	M	95	0	0.21	0.28	ok	3	2.2	92.8	52.4	18
Luis Javier Suárez	F	80	0	0.20	0.32	36%	2	2.5	84.2	66.3	12
Jhon Arias	M	72	1	0.07	0.17	59%	1	1.4	85.2	41.4	14
Jefferson Lerma	M	74	0	0.04	0.02	51%	2	0.5	83.8	48.9	11
James Rodríguez	M	71	0	0.06	0.03	127%	2	0.5	96.2	26.0	11
Gustavo Puerta	M	87	0	0.14	0.05	175%	3	1.6	75.0	40.0	9
Johan Mojica	D	84	0	0.02	0.03	37%	0	0.4	84.8	27.0	10
Jhon Lucumí	D	89	0	0.04	0.01	698%	0	0.1	83.2	61.3	9
Davinson Sánchez	D	92	0	0.19	0.06	198%	1	0.8	89.2	54.6	9
Daniel Muñoz	M	79	0	0.05	0.06	ok	1	0.4	88.2	38.4	15
Camilo Vargas	G	88	0	0.00	-	n/a		0.0	88.7	64.4	9
Team totals			1	1.11			17			86.5

Ghana — projected line vs season baseline (4-3-3)

Player	Pos	Min	Proj xG	Season xG/g		Proj Sh	Season Sh/g	Proj Rtg	Season Rtg	Rec
Antoine Semenyo	M	86	0.00	0.06	100%	2	1.0	87.2	48.0	14
Jordan Ayew	F	74	0.20	-	n/a	2	0.0	79.2	66.5	4
Caleb Yirenkyi	M	65	0.00	0.14	100%	1	0.3	73.7	38.4	7
Kamaldeen Sulemana	F	61	0.09	0.03	175%	2	0.5	77.7	35.7	11
Kwasi Sibo	M	61	0.00	-	n/a	2	0.0	75.4	43.5	6
Thomas Partey	M	58	0.00	0.07	100%	1	0.8	89.6	54.3	6
Gideon Mensah	D	87	0.00	-	n/a	0	0.0	80.9	70.4	7
Derrick Luckassen	D	88	0.55	0.14	306%	1	0.2	6.5	36.2	4
Jonas Adjei Adjetey	D	75	0.13	0.02	540%	1	0.3	93.7	34.8	6
Marvin Senaya	D	58	0.04	0.01	289%	0	0.3	75.6	58.7	7
Benjamin Asare	G	74	0.00	-	n/a		0.0	85.6	54.0	4
Team totals			1.02			13			75.0

Antagonist / tactical summary

Midfield is evenly contested — Luis Díaz vs Antoine Semenyo will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.45, Away: 0.72. Home danger zone: Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle. Away danger zone: Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest.

Midfield — possession 50.0% / 50.0%, dominance ratio 0.53, key duel: Luis Díaz vs Antoine Semenyo

Luis Javier Suárez xG 0.24James Rodríguez xG 0.08Jefferson Lerma xG 0.03Kamaldeen Sulemana xG 0.09Kwasi Sibo xG 0.18Jordan Ayew xG 0.19

Summary

Antagonist matchup analysis for Colombia vs Ghana. Most likely scoreline: 1-0. Lambdas derived from 5 home and 5 away individual player duels.

Tactical parity between 4-3-3 and 4-3-3. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Midfield is evenly contested — Luis Díaz vs Antoine Semenyo will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.45, Away: 0.72. Home danger zone: Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle. Away danger zone: Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest.

Generated 2026-09-04 22:27:55 UTC · Soccer prediction reporting