Soccer predictions: actual data vs predicted data
Slate 20260704 · 4 match(es)
How to read this report. Each match shows the model's headline prediction, the stage-by-stage lambda (goal-rate) build, both teams' standing/form inputs, and every starter's projected line next to their real season baseline. A moderate / large deviation badge flags a projection that strays far from the player's season form — a quick way to spot when the inputs look right but a projection does not. When the real result is known an actual-vs-predicted banner appears.
All matches overview
| Match | Score | Winner | H / D / A | O2.5 | BTTS | Conf | λ H/A | Actual | Result |
|---|
| Paraguay vs France World Championship | 0-2 | France | 5.7% / 12.0% / 82.3% | 66.6% | 43.6% | 0.88 | 0.66 / 2.96 | - | pending |
| Canada vs Germany FIFA World Cup | 0-2 | Germany | 5.5% / 11.2% / 83.4% | 69.8% | 45.7% | 0.89 | 0.69 / 3.11 | - | pending |
| Canada vs Morocco World Championship | 1-1 | Morocco | 20.7% / 23.2% / 56.1% | 52.9% | 52.7% | 0.77 | 1.05 / 1.89 | - | pending |
| Canada vs W75 FIFA World Cup | 2-0 | Canada | 78.8% / 13.9% / 7.4% | 64.4% | 46.2% | 0.86 | 2.77 / 0.72 | - | pending |
Match detail
Paraguay vs France
World Championship · 20260704 · 4-3-1-2 vs 4-2-3-1
Predicted 0-2Winner: FranceConfidence 0.88λ home/away 0.66 / 2.96Most-likely P 12.8%
Actual vs predicted: result not available yet (upcoming fixture).
Lambda decomposition (how the goal rates were built)
| Stage | Paraguay λ | France λ |
|---|
| Pre-mismatch | 0.696 | 2.524 |
| Pre-calibration | 0.696 | 2.524 |
| Final λ | 0.657 | 2.956 |
competition calibration scale 1.0competition observed total goals 0.0quality gap applied Truemismatch score pressure applied Truecompetitive underdog floor applied Falsestage discount 1.0
Scoreline distribution & markets
| Top 5 scorelines | P |
|---|
| 0-2 | 12.8% |
| 0-3 | 11.9% |
| 0-1 | 9.1% |
| 0-4 | 8.4% |
| 1-2 | 8.0% |
| Home win | 5.7% |
| Draw | 12.0% |
| Away win | 82.3% |
| Over 2.5 | 66.6% |
| BTTS yes | 43.6% |
Pregame fair line — favorite France (82.3%), fair total 3.61, fair spread -2.30
Projected players vs season baseline
Proj = projected for this match · Season = this season's per-game average from match data · deviation badge compares projected xG to the player's season xG/game.
Paraguay — projected line vs season baseline (4-3-1-2)
| Player | Pos | Min | Proj G | Proj xG | Season xG/g | | Proj Sh | Season Sh/g | Proj Rtg | Season Rtg | Rec |
|---|
| Miguel Almirón | M | 76 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 100% | 2 | 0.4 | 82.5 | 28.1 | 9 |
| Julio Enciso | M | 76 | 0 | 0.16 | 0.14 | ok | 2 | 1.3 | 80.2 | 37.8 | 15 |
| Diego Gómez | M | 75 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.13 | 53% | 2 | 1.3 | 79.9 | 42.0 | 9 |
| Matías Galarza | M | 62 | 0 | 0.13 | 0.04 | 243% | 1 | 0.5 | 79.6 | 25.5 | 11 |
| Andrés Cubas | M | 84 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 100% | 0 | 0.1 | 80.7 | 38.3 | 9 |
| Damián Bobadilla | M | 53 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 100% | 2 | 0.4 | 84.5 | 26.3 | 10 |
| Junior Alonso | D | 81 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.01 | 489% | 0 | 0.3 | 88.7 | 44.5 | 11 |
| José Canale | D | 56 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 1052% | 0 | 0.1 | 75.5 | 27.7 | 12 |
| Gustavo Gómez | D | 88 | 0 | 0.15 | 0.02 | 559% | 0 | 0.2 | 88.8 | 38.9 | 14 |
| Juan Cáceres | D | 74 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.01 | 157% | 1 | 0.4 | 90.9 | 55.6 | 5 |
| Orlando Gill | G | 89 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | | 0.0 | 68.8 | 47.1 | 9 |
| Team totals | 0 | 0.66 | | 11 | | 81.8 | |
France — projected line vs season baseline (4-2-3-1)
| Player | Pos | Min | Proj G | Proj xG | Season xG/g | | Proj Sh | Season Sh/g | Proj Rtg | Season Rtg | Rec |
|---|
| Ousmane Dembélé | F | 75 | 0 | 0.35 | 0.24 | 46% | 2 | 1.6 | 97.4 | 54.3 | 24 |
| Adrien Rabiot | M | 93 | 0 | 0.12 | 0.12 | ok | 2 | 1.5 | 90.4 | 57.3 | 12 |
| Manu Koné | M | 75 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 100% | 1 | 0.5 | 86.5 | 42.8 | 11 |
| Lucas Digne | D | 79 | 0 | 0.12 | 0.01 | 840% | 0 | 0.3 | 86.6 | 50.0 | 19 |
| William Saliba | D | 95 | 0 | 0.16 | 0.01 | 1299% | 0 | 0.2 | 94.9 | 51.4 | 19 |
| Dayot Upamecano | D | 93 | 0 | 0.68 | 0.11 | 509% | 1 | 0.6 | 93.0 | 59.0 | 18 |
| Jules Koundé | D | 94 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.01 | 1199% | 0 | 0.2 | 94.6 | 47.4 | 17 |
| Mike Maignan | G | 94 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | | 0.0 | 94.1 | 63.8 | 12 |
| Michael Olise | M | 86 | 1 | 0.34 | 0.29 | ok | 2 | 2.8 | 94.3 | 73.5 | 17 |
| Bradley Barcola | F | 47 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.17 | 92% | 3 | 1.1 | 91.8 | 61.7 | 18 |
| Kylian Mbappé | F | 84 | 1 | 1.06 | 0.55 | 94% | 3 | 3.5 | 99.1 | 57.6 | 19 |
| Team totals | 2 | 2.96 | | 15 | | 93.0 | |
Antagonist / tactical summary
Midfield is evenly contested — Diego Gómez vs Michael Olise will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.49, Away: 0.96. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle.
Midfield — possession 47.3% / 52.7%, dominance ratio 0.44, key duel: Diego Gómez vs Michael Olise
Miguel Almirón xG 0.21Damián Bobadilla xG 0.11Julio Enciso xG 0.16Michael Olise xG 0.24Kylian Mbappé xG 0.53Ousmane Dembélé xG 0.17
Summary
Antagonist matchup analysis for Paraguay vs France. Most likely scoreline: 0-2. Lambdas derived from 3 home and 4 away individual player duels.
Tactical parity between 4-3-1-2 and 4-2-3-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Midfield is evenly contested — Diego Gómez vs Michael Olise will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.49, Away: 0.96. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle.
Canada vs Germany
FIFA World Cup · 20260704 · 3-4-2-1 vs 3-4-2-1
Predicted 0-2Winner: GermanyConfidence 0.89λ home/away 0.69 / 3.11Most-likely P 11.8%
Actual vs predicted: result not available yet (upcoming fixture).
Lambda decomposition (how the goal rates were built)
| Stage | Canada λ | Germany λ |
|---|
| Pre-mismatch | 0.712 | 2.824 |
| Pre-calibration | 0.712 | 2.824 |
| Final λ | 0.692 | 3.106 |
competition calibration scale 1.0competition observed total goals 0.0quality gap applied Truemismatch score pressure applied Truecompetitive underdog floor applied Falsestage discount 1.0
Scoreline distribution & markets
| Top 5 scorelines | P |
|---|
| 0-2 | 11.8% |
| 0-3 | 11.6% |
| 0-4 | 8.6% |
| 0-1 | 8.0% |
| 1-2 | 7.8% |
| Home win | 5.5% |
| Draw | 11.2% |
| Away win | 83.4% |
| Over 2.5 | 69.8% |
| BTTS yes | 45.7% |
Pregame fair line — favorite Germany (83.4%), fair total 3.80, fair spread -2.41
Projected players vs season baseline
Proj = projected for this match · Season = this season's per-game average from match data · deviation badge compares projected xG to the player's season xG/game.
Canada — projected line vs season baseline (3-4-2-1)
| Player | Pos | Min | Proj G | Proj xG | Season xG/g | | Proj Sh | Season Sh/g | Proj Rtg | Season Rtg | Rec |
|---|
| Dayne St. Clair | G | 88 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | | 0.0 | 80.1 | 15.0 | 9 |
| Alphonso Davies | D | 64 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 2594% | 0 | 0.1 | 91.3 | 43.1 | 11 |
| Moise Bombito | D | 75 | 0 | 0.16 | 0.05 | 203% | 0 | 0.2 | 82.8 | 39.2 | 5 |
| Alistair Johnston | D | 87 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.05 | 53% | 1 | 0.9 | 85.0 | 68.9 | 9 |
| Ismael Koné | M | 63 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.08 | 54% | 1 | 0.6 | 79.3 | 42.8 | 8 |
| Tajon Buchanan | M | 78 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.07 | ok | 1 | 0.6 | 80.6 | 43.2 | 12 |
| Stephen Eustaquio | M | 72 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 100% | 1 | 0.6 | 84.2 | 57.4 | 9 |
| Nathan-Dylan Saliba | M | 63 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 100% | 1 | 0.8 | 75.0 | 54.9 | 8 |
| Jonathan David | F | 77 | 0 | 0.19 | 0.38 | 51% | 2 | 2.2 | 88.8 | 58.2 | 8 |
| Promise David | F | 53 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.11 | ok | 2 | 0.6 | 82.3 | 33.8 | 8 |
| Tani Oluwaseyi | F | 62 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.08 | 45% | 2 | 0.8 | 76.6 | 33.0 | 12 |
| Team totals | 0 | 0.69 | | 12 | | 82.4 | |
Germany — projected line vs season baseline (3-4-2-1)
| Player | Pos | Min | Proj G | Proj xG | Season xG/g | | Proj Sh | Season Sh/g | Proj Rtg | Season Rtg | Rec |
|---|
| Noah Atubolu | G | 92 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | 0 | 0.0 | 83.8 | 68.5 | 11 |
| Nico Schlotterbeck | D | 88 | 0 | 0.81 | 0.08 | 879% | 1 | 0.3 | 93.2 | 51.4 | 9 |
| Malick Thiaw | D | 78 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | 0 | 0.0 | 85.1 | 29.5 | 13 |
| Tom Bischof | D | 91 | 0 | 0.20 | 0.04 | 417% | 1 | 0.6 | 84.2 | 42.6 | 7 |
| Jamal Musiala | M | 76 | 0 | 0.23 | 0.17 | 39% | 1 | 1.4 | 95.2 | 52.4 | 14 |
| Florian Wirtz | M | 83 | 0 | 0.27 | 0.17 | 60% | 2 | 1.3 | 96.8 | 42.5 | 15 |
| Aleksandar Pavlović | M | 78 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.11 | 100% | 2 | 0.6 | 86.7 | 51.0 | 14 |
| Lennart Karl | M | 49 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.10 | 154% | 1 | 0.9 | 70.7 | 25.8 | 11 |
| Nick Woltemade | F | 92 | 1 | 0.38 | 0.02 | 2346% | 3 | 0.1 | 86.8 | 16.1 | 13 |
| Kai Havertz | F | 51 | 1 | 0.32 | 0.23 | 40% | 3 | 1.0 | 89.4 | 44.3 | 16 |
| Karim Adeyemi | F | 49 | 0 | 0.65 | - | n/a | 2 | 0.0 | 88.1 | 22.2 | 6 |
| Team totals | 2 | 3.11 | | 16 | | 87.3 | |
Antagonist / tactical summary
Away midfield dictates play with ~54% possession expected (Ismael Koné vs Jamal Musiala). Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.79, Away: 1.31. Home danger zone: Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat. Away danger zone: Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat.
Midfield — possession 46.0% / 54.0%, dominance ratio 0.39, key duel: Ismael Koné vs Jamal Musiala
Tajon Buchanan xG 0.09Ismael Koné xG 0.05Stephen Eustaquio xG 0.08Jamal Musiala xG 0.16Aleksandar Pavlović xG 0.19Florian Wirtz xG 0.15
Summary
Antagonist matchup analysis for Canada vs Germany. Most likely scoreline: 0-2. Lambdas derived from 7 home and 7 away individual player duels.
Tactical parity between 3-4-2-1 and 3-4-2-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Away midfield dictates play with ~54% possession expected (Ismael Koné vs Jamal Musiala). Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.79, Away: 1.31. Home danger zone: Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat. Away danger zone: Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat.
Canada vs Morocco
World Championship · 20260704 · 4-4-2 vs 4-2-3-1
Predicted 1-1Winner: MoroccoConfidence 0.77λ home/away 1.05 / 1.89Most-likely P 11.0%
Actual vs predicted: result not available yet (upcoming fixture).
Lambda decomposition (how the goal rates were built)
| Stage | Canada λ | Morocco λ |
|---|
| Pre-mismatch | 0.740 | 1.722 |
| Pre-competitive-floor | 0.720 | 1.892 |
| Pre-calibration | 0.740 | 1.722 |
| Final λ | 1.050 | 1.892 |
competition calibration scale 1.0competition observed total goals 0.0quality gap applied Truemismatch score pressure applied Truecompetitive underdog floor applied Truestage discount 1.0
Scoreline distribution & markets
| Top 5 scorelines | P |
|---|
| 1-1 | 11.0% |
| 0-1 | 10.9% |
| 0-2 | 9.9% |
| 1-2 | 9.8% |
| 0-0 | 6.2% |
| Home win | 20.7% |
| Draw | 23.2% |
| Away win | 56.1% |
| Over 2.5 | 52.9% |
| BTTS yes | 52.7% |
Pregame fair line — favorite Morocco (56.1%), fair total 2.94, fair spread -0.84
Projected players vs season baseline
Proj = projected for this match · Season = this season's per-game average from match data · deviation badge compares projected xG to the player's season xG/game.
Canada — projected line vs season baseline (4-4-2)
| Player | Pos | Min | Proj G | Proj xG | Season xG/g | | Proj Sh | Season Sh/g | Proj Rtg | Season Rtg | Rec |
|---|
| Tani Oluwaseyi | F | 38 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.08 | ok | 2 | 0.8 | 76.6 | 33.0 | 12 |
| Jonathan David | F | 66 | 1 | 0.21 | 0.38 | 44% | 2 | 2.2 | 88.8 | 58.2 | 8 |
| Liam Millar | M | 58 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 100% | 1 | 0.1 | 78.3 | 19.8 | 10 |
| Stephen Eustaquio | M | 72 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 100% | 1 | 0.6 | 84.2 | 57.4 | 9 |
| Nathan-Dylan Saliba | M | 66 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 100% | 1 | 0.8 | 75.0 | 54.9 | 8 |
| Tajon Buchanan | M | 69 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.07 | ok | 1 | 0.6 | 80.6 | 43.2 | 12 |
| Richie Laryea | D | 82 | 0 | 0.13 | 0.04 | 256% | 0 | 0.2 | 79.0 | 45.6 | 8 |
| Derek Cornelius | D | 76 | 0 | 0.14 | 0.15 | ok | 1 | 1.0 | 80.6 | 52.0 | 5 |
| Moise Bombito | D | 74 | 0 | 0.24 | 0.05 | 354% | 0 | 0.2 | 82.8 | 39.2 | 5 |
| Alistair Johnston | D | 85 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.05 | ok | 1 | 0.9 | 85.0 | 68.9 | 9 |
| Maxime Crépeau | G | 88 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | | 0.0 | 75.6 | 52.6 | 9 |
| Team totals | 1 | 1.05 | | 11 | | 80.6 | |
Morocco — projected line vs season baseline (4-2-3-1)
| Player | Pos | Min | Proj G | Proj xG | Season xG/g | | Proj Sh | Season Sh/g | Proj Rtg | Season Rtg | Rec |
|---|
| Ismael Saibari | M | 49 | 1 | 0.13 | 0.23 | 44% | 2 | 1.3 | 86.5 | 40.9 | 9 |
| Bilal El Khannouss | M | 77 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.05 | 51% | 2 | 1.2 | 83.3 | 51.7 | 12 |
| Brahim Díaz | M | 61 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.09 | ok | 2 | 0.8 | 86.3 | 46.6 | 18 |
| Azzedine Ounahi | M | 75 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.09 | 45% | 2 | 1.6 | 83.0 | 65.2 | 9 |
| Ayyoub Bouaddi | M | 77 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 100% | 1 | 0.3 | 82.3 | 55.2 | 11 |
| Neil El Aynaoui | M | 74 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 100% | 1 | 0.7 | 84.4 | 62.1 | 10 |
| Noussair Mazraoui | D | 72 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | 0 | 0.0 | 87.2 | 44.9 | 11 |
| Chadi Riad | D | 89 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.02 | 377% | 1 | 0.2 | 79.0 | 25.5 | 13 |
| Issa Diop | D | 80 | 0 | 0.87 | 0.07 | 1233% | 0 | 0.1 | 82.7 | 39.8 | 12 |
| Achraf Hakimi | D | 95 | 0 | 0.61 | 0.18 | 231% | 2 | 1.3 | 96.6 | 63.7 | 11 |
| Yassine Bounou | G | 88 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | | 0.0 | 91.3 | 62.2 | 10 |
| Team totals | 1 | 1.89 | | 13 | | 85.7 | |
Antagonist / tactical summary
Away midfield dictates play with ~54% possession expected (Tajon Buchanan vs Ayyoub Bouaddi). Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.38, Away: 0.44. Home danger zone: Right Mid vs Left Back — Wide Channel. Away danger zone: Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle.
Midfield — possession 46.5% / 53.5%, dominance ratio 0.39, key duel: Tajon Buchanan vs Ayyoub Bouaddi
Tani Oluwaseyi xG 0.06Liam Millar xG 0.10Stephen Eustaquio xG 0.13Ismael Saibari xG 0.16Bilal El Khannouss xG 0.09Brahim Díaz xG 0.07
Summary
Antagonist matchup analysis for Canada vs Morocco. Most likely scoreline: 1-1. Lambdas derived from 4 home and 5 away individual player duels.
Tactical parity between 4-4-2 and 4-2-3-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Away midfield dictates play with ~54% possession expected (Tajon Buchanan vs Ayyoub Bouaddi). Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.38, Away: 0.44. Home danger zone: Right Mid vs Left Back — Wide Channel. Away danger zone: Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle.
Canada vs W75
FIFA World Cup · 20260704 · 4-3-3 vs 4-4-2
Predicted 2-0Winner: CanadaConfidence 0.86λ home/away 2.77 / 0.72Most-likely P 12.5%
Actual vs predicted: result not available yet (upcoming fixture).
Lambda decomposition (how the goal rates were built)
| Stage | Canada λ | W75 λ |
|---|
| Pre-mismatch | 2.436 | 0.756 |
| Pre-calibration | 2.436 | 0.756 |
| Final λ | 2.769 | 0.724 |
competition calibration scale 1.0competition observed total goals 0.0quality gap applied Truemismatch score pressure applied Truecompetitive underdog floor applied Falsestage discount 1.0
Scoreline distribution & markets
| Top 5 scorelines | P |
|---|
| 2-0 | 12.5% |
| 3-0 | 11.0% |
| 1-0 | 9.5% |
| 2-1 | 8.6% |
| 3-1 | 7.6% |
| Home win | 78.8% |
| Draw | 13.9% |
| Away win | 7.4% |
| Over 2.5 | 64.4% |
| BTTS yes | 46.2% |
Pregame fair line — favorite Canada (78.8%), fair total 3.49, fair spread 2.04
Projected players vs season baseline
Proj = projected for this match · Season = this season's per-game average from match data · deviation badge compares projected xG to the player's season xG/game.
Canada — projected line vs season baseline (4-3-3)
| Player | Pos | Min | Proj G | Proj xG | Season xG/g | | Proj Sh | Season Sh/g | Proj Rtg | Season Rtg | Rec |
|---|
| Dayne St. Clair | G | 88 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | | 0.0 | 80.1 | 15.0 | 9 |
| Alphonso Davies | D | 64 | 0 | 0.14 | 0.00 | 8750% | 0 | 0.1 | 91.3 | 43.1 | 11 |
| Moise Bombito | D | 75 | 0 | 0.52 | 0.05 | 895% | 0 | 0.2 | 82.8 | 39.2 | 5 |
| Alistair Johnston | D | 87 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.05 | 54% | 1 | 0.9 | 85.0 | 68.9 | 9 |
| Alfie Jones | D | 90 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | | 0.0 | 77.6 | - | 5 |
| Ismael Koné | M | 77 | 0 | 0.14 | 0.08 | 71% | 2 | 0.6 | 79.3 | 42.8 | 8 |
| Tajon Buchanan | M | 78 | 0 | 0.19 | 0.07 | 164% | 1 | 0.6 | 80.6 | 43.2 | 12 |
| Stephen Eustaquio | M | 80 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.02 | 144% | 1 | 0.6 | 84.2 | 57.4 | 9 |
| Jonathan David | F | 77 | 1 | 0.87 | 0.38 | 130% | 2 | 2.2 | 88.8 | 58.2 | 8 |
| Promise David | F | 53 | 1 | 0.41 | 0.11 | 289% | 3 | 0.6 | 82.3 | 33.8 | 8 |
| Tani Oluwaseyi | F | 62 | 0 | 0.22 | 0.08 | 166% | 2 | 0.8 | 76.6 | 33.0 | 12 |
| Team totals | 2 | 2.77 | | 13 | | 82.6 | |
W75 — projected line vs season baseline (4-4-2)
| Player | Pos | Min | Proj G | Proj xG | Season xG/g | | Proj Sh | Season Sh/g | Proj Rtg | Season Rtg | Rec |
|---|
| W75 G1 | G | 90 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | | - | 6.8 | - | 0 |
| W75 D1 | D | 90 | 0 | 0.01 | - | n/a | 0 | - | 6.8 | - | 0 |
| W75 D2 | D | 90 | 0 | 0.01 | - | n/a | 0 | - | 6.8 | - | 0 |
| W75 D3 | D | 90 | 0 | 0.01 | - | n/a | 0 | - | 6.8 | - | 0 |
| W75 D4 | D | 90 | 0 | 0.01 | - | n/a | 0 | - | 6.8 | - | 0 |
| W75 M1 | M | 90 | 0 | 0.06 | - | n/a | 2 | - | 6.9 | - | 0 |
| W75 M2 | M | 90 | 0 | 0.06 | - | n/a | 1 | - | 6.9 | - | 0 |
| W75 M3 | M | 90 | 0 | 0.06 | - | n/a | 1 | - | 6.9 | - | 0 |
| W75 M4 | M | 90 | 0 | 0.06 | - | n/a | 1 | - | 6.9 | - | 0 |
| W75 F1 | F | 90 | 0 | 0.12 | - | n/a | 2 | - | 6.9 | - | 0 |
| W75 F2 | F | 90 | 0 | 0.18 | - | n/a | 2 | - | 6.9 | - | 0 |
| Team totals | 0 | 0.72 | | 11 | | 6.8 | |
Antagonist / tactical summary
Midfield is evenly contested — Ismael Koné vs W75 M1 will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.85, Away: 0.36. Home danger zone: Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle.
Midfield — possession 51.7% / 48.3%, dominance ratio 0.55, key duel: Ismael Koné vs W75 M1
Jonathan David xG 0.43Tani Oluwaseyi xG 0.11Promise David xG 0.20W75 F1 xG 0.15W75 M1 xG 0.08W75 M4 xG 0.08
Summary
Antagonist matchup analysis for Canada vs W75. Most likely scoreline: 2-0. Lambdas derived from 5 home and 4 away individual player duels.
Tactical parity between 4-3-3 and 4-4-2. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Midfield is evenly contested — Ismael Koné vs W75 M1 will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.85, Away: 0.36. Home danger zone: Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle.
Generated 2026-09-04 22:27:55 UTC · Soccer prediction reporting