Soccer predictions: actual data vs predicted data
Slate 20260705 · 3 match(es)
How to read this report. Each match shows the model's headline prediction, the stage-by-stage lambda (goal-rate) build, both teams' standing/form inputs, and every starter's projected line next to their real season baseline. A moderate / large deviation badge flags a projection that strays far from the player's season form — a quick way to spot when the inputs look right but a projection does not. When the real result is known an actual-vs-predicted banner appears.
All matches overview
| Match | Score | Winner | H / D / A | O2.5 | BTTS | Conf | λ H/A | Actual | Result |
|---|
| Mexico vs England World Championship | 0-2 | England | 5.7% / 12.1% / 82.1% | 65.9% | 43.2% | 0.88 | 0.65 / 2.92 | - | pending |
| Brazil vs Norway World Championship | 1-1 | Brazil | 51.7% / 25.1% / 23.1% | 47.9% | 50.2% | 0.75 | 1.69 / 1.04 | - | pending |
| Mexico vs W80 World Championship | 1-1 | Mexico | 49.2% / 26.0% / 24.8% | 46.0% | 49.4% | 0.74 | 1.60 / 1.05 | - | pending |
Match detail
Mexico vs England
World Championship · 20260705 · 4-3-3 vs 4-2-3-1
Predicted 0-2Winner: EnglandConfidence 0.88λ home/away 0.65 / 2.92Most-likely P 12.9%
Actual vs predicted: result not available yet (upcoming fixture).
Lambda decomposition (how the goal rates were built)
| Stage | Mexico λ | England λ |
|---|
| Pre-mismatch | 0.679 | 2.459 |
| Pre-calibration | 0.679 | 2.459 |
| Final λ | 0.650 | 2.924 |
competition calibration scale 1.0competition observed total goals 0.0quality gap applied Truemismatch score pressure applied Truecompetitive underdog floor applied Falsestage discount 1.0
Scoreline distribution & markets
| Top 5 scorelines | P |
|---|
| 0-2 | 12.9% |
| 0-3 | 12.0% |
| 0-1 | 9.3% |
| 0-4 | 8.3% |
| 1-2 | 8.0% |
| Home win | 5.7% |
| Draw | 12.1% |
| Away win | 82.1% |
| Over 2.5 | 65.9% |
| BTTS yes | 43.2% |
Pregame fair line — favorite England (82.1%), fair total 3.57, fair spread -2.27
Projected players vs season baseline
Proj = projected for this match · Season = this season's per-game average from match data · deviation badge compares projected xG to the player's season xG/game.
Mexico — projected line vs season baseline (4-3-3)
| Player | Pos | Min | Proj G | Proj xG | Season xG/g | | Proj Sh | Season Sh/g | Proj Rtg | Season Rtg | Rec |
|---|
| Julián Quiñones | F | 87 | 0 | 0.26 | 0.53 | 52% | 2 | 3.2 | 87.4 | 68.8 | 9 |
| Raúl Jiménez | F | 53 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.42 | 76% | 2 | 3.0 | 83.6 | 59.3 | 7 |
| Roberto Alvarado | F | 63 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.05 | 42% | 2 | 0.9 | 84.0 | 63.0 | 8 |
| Gilberto Mora | M | 60 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.17 | 82% | 1 | 1.6 | 89.9 | 57.6 | 7 |
| Erik Lira | D | 90 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 100% | | 0.1 | 90.8 | 32.0 | 11 |
| Luis Romo | D | 88 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 100% | 0 | 0.3 | 92.7 | 31.5 | 11 |
| Jesús Gallardo | D | 64 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.03 | ok | 1 | 1.2 | 89.6 | 69.7 | 6 |
| Johan Vásquez | D | 91 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.04 | 102% | 1 | 0.2 | 82.2 | 45.0 | 8 |
| César Montes | D | 82 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.02 | 278% | 1 | 0.2 | 94.0 | 56.4 | 5 |
| Jorge Sánchez | D | 80 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 633% | 0 | 0.1 | 84.6 | 49.5 | 8 |
| Raúl Rangel | G | 86 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | | 0.0 | 90.0 | 51.4 | 7 |
| Team totals | 0 | 0.65 | | 10 | | 88.1 | |
England — projected line vs season baseline (4-2-3-1)
| Player | Pos | Min | Proj G | Proj xG | Season xG/g | | Proj Sh | Season Sh/g | Proj Rtg | Season Rtg | Rec |
|---|
| Jude Bellingham | M | 77 | 0 | 0.31 | 0.18 | 73% | 1 | 1.1 | 98.1 | 57.3 | 16 |
| Noni Madueke | F | 45 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.04 | 80% | 2 | 0.6 | 87.2 | 35.1 | 22 |
| Declan Rice | M | 95 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.02 | 165% | 2 | 0.7 | 95.1 | 52.2 | 20 |
| Elliot Anderson | M | 95 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.04 | 70% | 2 | 1.0 | 88.3 | 57.3 | 18 |
| Nico O'Reilly | D | 90 | 0 | 0.45 | 0.12 | 279% | 1 | 0.7 | 80.3 | 37.8 | 15 |
| Marc Guéhi | D | 84 | 0 | 0.19 | 0.02 | 725% | 0 | 0.2 | 90.2 | 53.1 | 16 |
| Ezri Konsa | D | 95 | 0 | 0.52 | 0.07 | 607% | 1 | 0.3 | 89.8 | 52.6 | 20 |
| Djed Spence | D | 47 | 0 | 0.42 | 0.05 | 818% | 0 | 0.2 | 85.2 | 61.8 | 13 |
| Jordan Pickford | G | 92 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | | 0.0 | 90.6 | 42.9 | 14 |
| Anthony Gordon | F | 49 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.04 | 81% | 3 | 0.3 | 90.3 | 22.7 | 21 |
| Harry Kane | F | 93 | 2 | 0.71 | 0.46 | 56% | 3 | 2.6 | 97.6 | 63.5 | 17 |
| Team totals | 2 | 2.92 | | 16 | | 90.2 | |
Antagonist / tactical summary
Away midfield dictates play with ~54% possession expected (Gilberto Mora vs Jude Bellingham). Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.63, Away: 0.88. Home danger zone: Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle.
Midfield — possession 45.6% / 54.4%, dominance ratio 0.35, key duel: Gilberto Mora vs Jude Bellingham
Julián Quiñones xG 0.38Roberto Alvarado xG 0.05Raúl Jiménez xG 0.15Declan Rice xG 0.06Noni Madueke xG 0.01Anthony Gordon xG 0.01
Summary
Antagonist matchup analysis for Mexico vs England. Most likely scoreline: 0-2. Lambdas derived from 5 home and 5 away individual player duels.
Tactical parity between 4-3-3 and 4-2-3-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Away midfield dictates play with ~54% possession expected (Gilberto Mora vs Jude Bellingham). Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.63, Away: 0.88. Home danger zone: Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle.
Brazil vs Norway
World Championship · 20260705 · 4-2-3-1 vs 4-3-3
Predicted 1-1Winner: BrazilConfidence 0.75λ home/away 1.69 / 1.04Most-likely P 11.9%
Actual vs predicted: result not available yet (upcoming fixture).
Lambda decomposition (how the goal rates were built)
| Stage | Brazil λ | Norway λ |
|---|
| Pre-competitive-floor | 1.689 | 1.037 |
| Pre-calibration | 1.689 | 1.037 |
| Final λ | 1.689 | 1.037 |
competition calibration scale 1.0competition observed total goals 0.0quality gap applied Truemismatch score pressure applied Falsecompetitive underdog floor applied Falsestage discount 1.0
Scoreline distribution & markets
| Top 5 scorelines | P |
|---|
| 1-1 | 11.9% |
| 1-0 | 11.9% |
| 2-0 | 9.7% |
| 2-1 | 9.5% |
| 0-0 | 7.6% |
| Home win | 51.7% |
| Draw | 25.1% |
| Away win | 23.1% |
| Over 2.5 | 47.9% |
| BTTS yes | 50.2% |
Pregame fair line — favorite Brazil (51.7%), fair total 2.73, fair spread 0.65
Projected players vs season baseline
Proj = projected for this match · Season = this season's per-game average from match data · deviation badge compares projected xG to the player's season xG/game.
Brazil — projected line vs season baseline (4-2-3-1)
| Player | Pos | Min | Proj G | Proj xG | Season xG/g | | Proj Sh | Season Sh/g | Proj Rtg | Season Rtg | Rec |
|---|
| Matheus Cunha | F | 54 | 0 | 0.34 | 0.19 | 83% | 2 | 1.8 | 90.9 | 47.2 | 11 |
| Vinícius Júnior | F | 95 | 1 | 0.47 | 0.55 | ok | 2 | 2.6 | 95.1 | 53.7 | 17 |
| Gabriel Martinelli | F | 25 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 94% | 3 | 0.5 | 88.1 | 44.4 | 17 |
| Rayan | M | 87 | 0 | 0.15 | 0.10 | 44% | 2 | 0.7 | 93.3 | 33.0 | 15 |
| Casemiro | M | 76 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.14 | ok | 1 | 1.2 | 87.1 | 72.8 | 6 |
| Bruno Guimarães | M | 94 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.16 | 58% | 2 | 1.5 | 94.1 | 57.7 | 10 |
| Douglas Santos | D | 88 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.03 | 167% | 1 | 0.4 | 89.0 | 69.6 | 5 |
| Gabriel Magalhães | D | 91 | 0 | 0.17 | 0.04 | 332% | 1 | 0.4 | 91.2 | 59.1 | 17 |
| Marquinhos | D | 92 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.01 | 1247% | 0 | 0.2 | 94.7 | 66.5 | 14 |
| Danilo | D | 75 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.01 | 509% | 0 | 0.2 | 79.6 | 36.8 | 13 |
| Alisson | G | 92 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | | 0.0 | 96.0 | 49.9 | 10 |
| Team totals | 1 | 1.69 | | 16 | | 90.8 | |
Norway — projected line vs season baseline (4-3-3)
| Player | Pos | Min | Proj G | Proj xG | Season xG/g | | Proj Sh | Season Sh/g | Proj Rtg | Season Rtg | Rec |
|---|
| Antonio Nusa | F | 67 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.03 | 52% | 2 | 0.6 | 83.5 | 44.3 | 12 |
| Erling Haaland | F | 95 | 1 | 0.51 | 0.46 | ok | 2 | 2.1 | 97.7 | 40.1 | 15 |
| Alexander Sørloth | F | 44 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.06 | 91% | 2 | 0.5 | 90.7 | 41.4 | 19 |
| Sander Berge | M | 87 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 100% | 2 | 0.2 | 86.2 | 31.8 | 13 |
| Patrick Berg | M | 65 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 100% | 1 | 0.4 | 84.0 | 53.5 | 8 |
| Martin Ødegaard | M | 74 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.12 | 67% | 1 | 0.8 | 94.9 | 39.2 | 16 |
| David Møller Wolfe | D | 78 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | 0 | 0.0 | 79.4 | 46.8 | 10 |
| Torbjørn Heggem | D | 63 | 0 | 0.26 | 0.03 | 779% | 0 | 0.1 | 79.9 | 46.0 | 13 |
| Kristoffer Ajer | D | 92 | 0 | 0.14 | 0.02 | 811% | 0 | 0.1 | 82.3 | 31.5 | 13 |
| Marcus Pedersen | M | 72 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 100% | 0 | 0.2 | 78.3 | 28.9 | 14 |
| Ørjan Nyland | G | 88 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | | 0.0 | 82.6 | 35.2 | 10 |
| Team totals | 1 | 1.04 | | 10 | | 85.4 | |
Antagonist / tactical summary
Midfield is evenly contested — Bruno Guimarães vs Martin Ødegaard will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 1.00, Away: 1.05. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle.
Midfield — possession 51.4% / 48.6%, dominance ratio 0.53, key duel: Bruno Guimarães vs Martin Ødegaard
Rayan xG 0.19Matheus Cunha xG 0.31Gabriel Martinelli xG 0.00Antonio Nusa xG 0.06Alexander Sørloth xG 0.01Erling Haaland xG 0.76
Summary
Antagonist matchup analysis for Brazil vs Norway. Most likely scoreline: 1-1. Lambdas derived from 5 home and 5 away individual player duels.
Tactical parity between 4-2-3-1 and 4-3-3. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Midfield is evenly contested — Bruno Guimarães vs Martin Ødegaard will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 1.00, Away: 1.05. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle.
Mexico vs W80
World Championship · 20260705 · 3-4-2-1 vs 4-4-2
Predicted 1-1Winner: MexicoConfidence 0.74λ home/away 1.60 / 1.05Most-likely P 12.3%
Actual vs predicted: result not available yet (upcoming fixture).
Lambda decomposition (how the goal rates were built)
| Stage | Mexico λ | W80 λ |
|---|
| Pre-mismatch | 1.358 | 0.756 |
| Pre-competitive-floor | 1.597 | 0.712 |
| Pre-calibration | 1.358 | 0.756 |
| Final λ | 1.597 | 1.050 |
competition calibration scale 1.0competition observed total goals 0.0quality gap applied Truemismatch score pressure applied Truecompetitive underdog floor applied Truestage discount 1.0
Scoreline distribution & markets
| Top 5 scorelines | P |
|---|
| 1-1 | 12.3% |
| 1-0 | 12.2% |
| 2-0 | 9.3% |
| 2-1 | 9.3% |
| 0-0 | 8.2% |
| Home win | 49.2% |
| Draw | 26.0% |
| Away win | 24.8% |
| Over 2.5 | 46.0% |
| BTTS yes | 49.4% |
Pregame fair line — favorite Mexico (49.2%), fair total 2.65, fair spread 0.55
Projected players vs season baseline
Proj = projected for this match · Season = this season's per-game average from match data · deviation badge compares projected xG to the player's season xG/game.
Mexico — projected line vs season baseline (3-4-2-1)
| Player | Pos | Min | Proj G | Proj xG | Season xG/g | | Proj Sh | Season Sh/g | Proj Rtg | Season Rtg | Rec |
|---|
| Raúl Rangel | G | 86 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | | 0.0 | 90.0 | 51.4 | 7 |
| Erik Lira | D | 90 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 100% | | 0.1 | 90.8 | 32.0 | 11 |
| Johan Vásquez | D | 91 | 0 | 0.14 | 0.04 | 242% | 1 | 0.2 | 82.2 | 45.0 | 8 |
| César Montes | D | 86 | 0 | 0.13 | 0.02 | 619% | 1 | 0.2 | 94.0 | 56.4 | 5 |
| Edson Álvarez | M | 59 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.03 | 32% | 2 | 0.3 | 84.8 | 40.4 | 7 |
| Gilberto Mora | M | 60 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.17 | 47% | 1 | 1.6 | 89.9 | 57.6 | 7 |
| Álvaro Fidalgo | M | 43 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 100% | 0 | 0.3 | 86.7 | 36.8 | 15 |
| Alexis Vega | M | 87 | 0 | 0.20 | 0.02 | 871% | 1 | 0.3 | 82.9 | 16.6 | 12 |
| Santiago Giménez | F | 69 | 0 | 0.17 | 0.08 | 101% | 2 | 0.9 | 85.9 | 57.1 | 8 |
| Armando González | F | 72 | 0 | 0.15 | 0.04 | 320% | 2 | 0.7 | 92.6 | 27.1 | 7 |
| Julián Quiñones | F | 88 | 1 | 0.52 | 0.53 | ok | 3 | 3.2 | 87.4 | 68.8 | 9 |
| Team totals | 1 | 1.60 | | 14 | | 87.9 | |
W80 — projected line vs season baseline (4-4-2)
| Player | Pos | Min | Proj G | Proj xG | Season xG/g | | Proj Sh | Season Sh/g | Proj Rtg | Season Rtg | Rec |
|---|
| W80 G1 | G | 90 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | | - | 6.8 | - | 0 |
| W80 D1 | D | 90 | 0 | 0.02 | - | n/a | 0 | - | 6.8 | - | 0 |
| W80 D2 | D | 90 | 0 | 0.02 | - | n/a | 0 | - | 6.8 | - | 0 |
| W80 D3 | D | 90 | 0 | 0.02 | - | n/a | 0 | - | 6.8 | - | 0 |
| W80 D4 | D | 90 | 0 | 0.02 | - | n/a | 0 | - | 6.8 | - | 0 |
| W80 M1 | M | 90 | 0 | 0.10 | - | n/a | 1 | - | 6.9 | - | 0 |
| W80 M2 | M | 90 | 0 | 0.10 | - | n/a | 1 | - | 6.9 | - | 0 |
| W80 M3 | M | 90 | 0 | 0.10 | - | n/a | 1 | - | 6.9 | - | 0 |
| W80 M4 | M | 90 | 0 | 0.10 | - | n/a | 1 | - | 6.9 | - | 0 |
| W80 F1 | F | 90 | 1 | 0.19 | - | n/a | 2 | - | 6.9 | - | 0 |
| W80 F2 | F | 90 | 0 | 0.19 | - | n/a | 2 | - | 6.9 | - | 0 |
| Team totals | 1 | 1.05 | | 10 | | 6.8 | |
Antagonist / tactical summary
Midfield is evenly contested — Edson Álvarez vs W80 M1 will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.33, Away: 0.58. Home danger zone: Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle.
Midfield — possession 51.9% / 48.1%, dominance ratio 0.55, key duel: Edson Álvarez vs W80 M1
Santiago Giménez xG 0.09Armando González xG 0.08Gilberto Mora xG 0.04W80 M1 xG 0.08W80 M2 xG 0.07W80 M3 xG 0.07
Summary
Antagonist matchup analysis for Mexico vs W80. Most likely scoreline: 1-1. Lambdas derived from 5 home and 6 away individual player duels.
Tactical parity between 3-4-2-1 and 4-4-2. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Midfield is evenly contested — Edson Álvarez vs W80 M1 will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.33, Away: 0.58. Home danger zone: Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle.
Generated 2026-09-04 22:27:55 UTC · Soccer prediction reporting