Soccer predictions: actual data vs predicted data
Slate 20260706 · 2 match(es)
How to read this report. Each match shows the model's headline prediction, the stage-by-stage lambda (goal-rate) build, both teams' standing/form inputs, and every starter's projected line next to their real season baseline. A moderate / large deviation badge flags a projection that strays far from the player's season form — a quick way to spot when the inputs look right but a projection does not. When the real result is known an actual-vs-predicted banner appears.
All matches overview
| Match | Score | Winner | H / D / A | O2.5 | BTTS | Conf | λ H/A | Actual | Result |
|---|
| USA vs Belgium World Championship | 1-0 | USA | 39.1% / 30.1% / 30.8% | 35.0% | 42.2% | 0.7 | 1.19 / 1.02 | - | pending |
| Portugal vs Spain World Championship | 0-1 | Spain | 29.0% / 29.1% / 41.9% | 37.6% | 44.0% | 0.71 | 1.02 / 1.29 | - | pending |
Match detail
USA vs Belgium
World Championship · 20260706 · 4-2-3-1 vs 4-2-3-1
Predicted 1-0Winner: USAConfidence 0.7λ home/away 1.19 / 1.02Most-likely P 13.7%
Actual vs predicted: result not available yet (upcoming fixture).
Lambda decomposition (how the goal rates were built)
| Stage | USA λ | Belgium λ |
|---|
| Pre-competitive-floor | 1.191 | 0.750 |
| Pre-calibration | 1.191 | 0.750 |
| Final λ | 1.191 | 1.020 |
competition calibration scale 1.0competition observed total goals 0.0quality gap applied Truemismatch score pressure applied Falsecompetitive underdog floor applied Truestage discount 1.0
Scoreline distribution & markets
| Top 5 scorelines | P |
|---|
| 1-0 | 13.7% |
| 1-1 | 13.5% |
| 0-0 | 12.4% |
| 0-1 | 11.7% |
| 2-0 | 7.8% |
| Home win | 39.1% |
| Draw | 30.1% |
| Away win | 30.8% |
| Over 2.5 | 35.0% |
| BTTS yes | 42.2% |
Pregame fair line — favorite USA (39.1%), fair total 2.21, fair spread 0.17
Projected players vs season baseline
Proj = projected for this match · Season = this season's per-game average from match data · deviation badge compares projected xG to the player's season xG/game.
USA — projected line vs season baseline (4-2-3-1)
| Player | Pos | Min | Proj G | Proj xG | Season xG/g | | Proj Sh | Season Sh/g | Proj Rtg | Season Rtg | Rec |
|---|
| Folarin Balogun | F | 77 | 0 | 0.24 | 0.29 | ok | 2 | 2.9 | 83.9 | 57.6 | 7 |
| Christian Pulišić | F | 95 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.14 | 36% | 2 | 0.9 | 91.4 | 45.8 | 9 |
| Weston McKennie | M | 94 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 100% | 1 | 0.8 | 85.4 | 69.0 | 8 |
| Sergiño Dest | D | 58 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 100% | 0 | 0.3 | 86.1 | 43.5 | 11 |
| Tyler Adams | M | 79 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 100% | 0 | 0.1 | 86.4 | 43.9 | 11 |
| Malik Tillman | M | 43 | 1 | 0.13 | 0.12 | ok | 2 | 1.0 | 89.0 | 69.2 | 10 |
| Antonee Robinson | D | 95 | 0 | 0.20 | 0.07 | 185% | 1 | 0.2 | 89.4 | 41.8 | 12 |
| Chris Richards | D | 88 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.06 | 328% | 1 | 0.5 | 84.4 | 42.7 | 11 |
| Tim Ream | D | 88 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | 0 | 0.0 | 78.9 | 43.1 | 8 |
| Alexander Freeman | D | 73 | 0 | 0.20 | 0.04 | 417% | 0 | 0.3 | 85.9 | 36.1 | 12 |
| Matthew Freese | G | 88 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | | 0.0 | 92.4 | 44.1 | 9 |
| Team totals | 1 | 1.19 | | 11 | | 86.7 | |
Belgium — projected line vs season baseline (4-2-3-1)
| Player | Pos | Min | Proj G | Proj xG | Season xG/g | | Proj Sh | Season Sh/g | Proj Rtg | Season Rtg | Rec |
|---|
| Romelu Lukaku | F | 36 | 0 | 0.17 | 0.12 | 36% | 2 | 0.7 | 90.3 | 47.7 | 7 |
| Jérémy Doku | M | 90 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.04 | 37% | 2 | 0.8 | 87.8 | 42.8 | 17 |
| Leandro Trossard | F | 47 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.15 | 75% | 2 | 1.6 | 89.8 | 45.3 | 19 |
| Kevin De Bruyne | M | 71 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.14 | ok | 2 | 2.1 | 94.4 | 48.1 | 9 |
| Nicolas Raskin | M | 54 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 100% | 1 | 0.1 | 84.2 | 53.1 | 8 |
| Youri Tielemans | M | 85 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.05 | ok | 2 | 0.9 | 92.9 | 48.8 | 18 |
| Timothy Castagne | D | 76 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.02 | 293% | 1 | 0.3 | 83.3 | 44.5 | 13 |
| Arthur Theate | D | 74 | 0 | 0.21 | 0.02 | 972% | 1 | 0.4 | 86.8 | 19.5 | 10 |
| Brandon Mechele | D | 88 | 0 | 0.16 | 0.07 | 137% | 1 | 0.5 | 83.4 | 59.2 | 11 |
| Thomas Meunier | D | 71 | 0 | 0.12 | 0.02 | 532% | 1 | 0.3 | 82.7 | 31.5 | 13 |
| Thibaut Courtois | G | 87 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | | 0.0 | 96.0 | 46.9 | 17 |
| Team totals | 0 | 1.02 | | 15 | | 88.3 | |
Antagonist / tactical summary
Midfield is evenly contested — Weston McKennie vs Jérémy Doku will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.68, Away: 0.41. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle.
Midfield — possession 50.6% / 49.4%, dominance ratio 0.51, key duel: Weston McKennie vs Jérémy Doku
Malik Tillman xG 0.16Christian Pulišić xG 0.08Sergiño Dest xG 0.14Kevin De Bruyne xG 0.12Leandro Trossard xG 0.03Jérémy Doku xG 0.05
Summary
Antagonist matchup analysis for USA vs Belgium. Most likely scoreline: 1-0. Lambdas derived from 5 home and 5 away individual player duels.
Tactical parity between 4-2-3-1 and 4-2-3-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Midfield is evenly contested — Weston McKennie vs Jérémy Doku will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.68, Away: 0.41. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle.
Portugal vs Spain
World Championship · 20260706 · 4-2-3-1 vs 4-2-3-1
Predicted 0-1Winner: SpainConfidence 0.71λ home/away 1.02 / 1.29Most-likely P 13.5%
Actual vs predicted: result not available yet (upcoming fixture).
Lambda decomposition (how the goal rates were built)
| Stage | Portugal λ | Spain λ |
|---|
| Pre-competitive-floor | 0.887 | 1.290 |
| Pre-calibration | 0.887 | 1.290 |
| Final λ | 1.020 | 1.290 |
competition calibration scale 1.0competition observed total goals 0.0quality gap applied Truemismatch score pressure applied Falsecompetitive underdog floor applied Truestage discount 1.0
Scoreline distribution & markets
| Top 5 scorelines | P |
|---|
| 0-1 | 13.5% |
| 1-1 | 13.4% |
| 0-0 | 11.3% |
| 1-0 | 10.7% |
| 0-2 | 8.4% |
| Home win | 29.0% |
| Draw | 29.1% |
| Away win | 41.9% |
| Over 2.5 | 37.6% |
| BTTS yes | 44.0% |
Pregame fair line — favorite Spain (41.9%), fair total 2.31, fair spread -0.27
Projected players vs season baseline
Proj = projected for this match · Season = this season's per-game average from match data · deviation badge compares projected xG to the player's season xG/game.
Portugal — projected line vs season baseline (4-2-3-1)
| Player | Pos | Min | Proj G | Proj xG | Season xG/g | | Proj Sh | Season Sh/g | Proj Rtg | Season Rtg | Rec |
|---|
| Cristiano Ronaldo | F | 88 | 0 | 0.41 | 0.54 | ok | 2 | 3.2 | 92.2 | 63.4 | 9 |
| Rafael Leão | F | 29 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 96% | 2 | 0.8 | 91.3 | 53.8 | 9 |
| Bruno Fernandes | M | 92 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.11 | 53% | 2 | 1.4 | 94.9 | 51.2 | 12 |
| Pedro Neto | M | 85 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 100% | 1 | 0.3 | 87.3 | 46.8 | 13 |
| Vitinha | M | 89 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 100% | 1 | 0.7 | 97.1 | 62.5 | 15 |
| Rúben Neves | M | 28 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.17 | 100% | 2 | 0.9 | 90.8 | 43.9 | 10 |
| Nuno Mendes | D | 88 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.02 | 116% | 1 | 0.5 | 94.1 | 65.9 | 12 |
| Renato Veiga | D | 95 | 0 | 0.31 | 0.03 | 795% | 0 | 0.2 | 83.5 | 41.4 | 12 |
| Rúben Dias | D | 91 | 0 | 0.14 | 0.01 | 1042% | 0 | 0.1 | 93.9 | 32.5 | 15 |
| João Cancelo | D | 63 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.02 | 134% | 1 | 0.5 | 90.7 | 48.1 | 17 |
| Diogo Costa | G | 95 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | | 0.0 | 91.8 | 64.0 | 13 |
| Team totals | 0 | 1.02 | | 12 | | 91.6 | |
Spain — projected line vs season baseline (4-2-3-1)
| Player | Pos | Min | Proj G | Proj xG | Season xG/g | | Proj Sh | Season Sh/g | Proj Rtg | Season Rtg | Rec |
|---|
| Rodri | M | 95 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.06 | ok | 2 | 1.0 | 98.2 | 50.5 | 15 |
| Marc Cucurella | D | 95 | 0 | 0.15 | 0.02 | 579% | 0 | 0.2 | 91.7 | 46.3 | 16 |
| Aymeric Laporte | D | 90 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.02 | 307% | 1 | 0.4 | 89.4 | 46.4 | 14 |
| Pau Cubarsí | D | 91 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.01 | 704% | 0 | 0.2 | 90.3 | 43.7 | 18 |
| Pedro Porro | D | 95 | 0 | 0.21 | 0.12 | 85% | 1 | 0.9 | 89.9 | 46.1 | 16 |
| Unai Simón | G | 94 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | | 0.0 | 92.1 | 41.5 | 15 |
| Pedri | M | 81 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 100% | 1 | 0.2 | 97.2 | 51.7 | 18 |
| Lamine Yamal | M | 95 | 0 | 0.36 | 0.25 | 44% | 2 | 2.0 | 97.2 | 45.9 | 18 |
| Alex Baena | M | 42 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.04 | 113% | 2 | 0.9 | 91.4 | 46.3 | 21 |
| Mikel Oyarzabal | F | 66 | 1 | 0.16 | 0.30 | 48% | 2 | 1.8 | 94.6 | 54.8 | 13 |
| Dani Olmo | M | 56 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.07 | ok | 1 | 0.9 | 92.6 | 50.9 | 19 |
| Team totals | 1 | 1.29 | | 13 | | 93.1 | |
Antagonist / tactical summary
Midfield is evenly contested — Vitinha vs Lamine Yamal will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.88, Away: 0.93. Home danger zone: Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle. Away danger zone: Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle.
Midfield — possession 49.1% / 50.9%, dominance ratio 0.47, key duel: Vitinha vs Lamine Yamal
Bruno Fernandes xG 0.08Cristiano Ronaldo xG 0.57Rúben Neves xG 0.14Lamine Yamal xG 0.53Alex Baena xG 0.10Rodri xG 0.05
Summary
Antagonist matchup analysis for Portugal vs Spain. Most likely scoreline: 0-1. Lambdas derived from 5 home and 5 away individual player duels.
Tactical parity between 4-2-3-1 and 4-2-3-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Midfield is evenly contested — Vitinha vs Lamine Yamal will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.88, Away: 0.93. Home danger zone: Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle. Away danger zone: Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle.
Generated 2026-09-04 22:27:55 UTC · Soccer prediction reporting