Soccer predictions: actual data vs predicted data
Slate 20260707 · 3 match(es)
How to read this report. Each match shows the model's headline prediction, the stage-by-stage lambda (goal-rate) build, both teams' standing/form inputs, and every starter's projected line next to their real season baseline. A moderate / large deviation badge flags a projection that strays far from the player's season form — a quick way to spot when the inputs look right but a projection does not. When the real result is known an actual-vs-predicted banner appears.
All matches overview
| Match | Score | Winner | H / D / A | O2.5 | BTTS | Conf | λ H/A | Actual | Result |
|---|
| Switzerland vs Colombia World Championship | 1-0 | Switzerland | 42.4% / 28.9% / 28.7% | 38.0% | 44.3% | 0.71 | 1.31 / 1.02 | - | pending |
| Argentina vs Egypt World Championship | 1-0 | Argentina | 67.9% / 20.3% / 11.8% | 49.3% | 42.4% | 0.8 | 2.07 / 0.71 | - | pending |
| Switzerland vs W87 World Championship | 2-0 | Switzerland | 71.9% / 18.1% / 10.0% | 53.7% | 43.0% | 0.82 | 2.28 / 0.70 | - | pending |
Match detail
Switzerland vs Colombia
World Championship · 20260707 · 4-2-3-1 vs 4-3-3
Predicted 1-0Winner: SwitzerlandConfidence 0.71λ home/away 1.31 / 1.02Most-likely P 13.5%
Actual vs predicted: result not available yet (upcoming fixture).
Lambda decomposition (how the goal rates were built)
| Stage | Switzerland λ | Colombia λ |
|---|
| Pre-competitive-floor | 1.308 | 1.014 |
| Pre-calibration | 1.308 | 1.014 |
| Final λ | 1.308 | 1.020 |
competition calibration scale 1.0competition observed total goals 0.0quality gap applied Falsemismatch score pressure applied Falsecompetitive underdog floor applied Truestage discount 1.0
Scoreline distribution & markets
| Top 5 scorelines | P |
|---|
| 1-0 | 13.5% |
| 1-1 | 13.3% |
| 0-0 | 11.1% |
| 0-1 | 10.5% |
| 2-0 | 8.5% |
| Home win | 42.4% |
| Draw | 28.9% |
| Away win | 28.7% |
| Over 2.5 | 38.0% |
| BTTS yes | 44.3% |
Pregame fair line — favorite Switzerland (42.4%), fair total 2.33, fair spread 0.29
Projected players vs season baseline
Proj = projected for this match · Season = this season's per-game average from match data · deviation badge compares projected xG to the player's season xG/game.
Switzerland — projected line vs season baseline (4-2-3-1)
| Player | Pos | Min | Proj G | Proj xG | Season xG/g | | Proj Sh | Season Sh/g | Proj Rtg | Season Rtg | Rec |
|---|
| Gregor Kobel | G | 95 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | | 0.0 | 93.6 | 36.6 | 16 |
| Breel Embolo | F | 73 | 0 | 0.41 | 0.27 | 47% | 2 | 1.0 | 84.0 | 32.7 | 15 |
| Rubén Vargas | M | 53 | 0 | 0.14 | 0.07 | 106% | 2 | 0.7 | 81.9 | 31.8 | 18 |
| Johan Manzambi | M | 80 | 1 | 0.18 | 0.09 | 90% | 1 | 1.1 | 74.6 | 41.6 | 25 |
| Dan Ndoye | M | 86 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 100% | 2 | 0.6 | 86.3 | 18.2 | 23 |
| Granit Xhaka | M | 88 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 100% | 2 | 0.3 | 92.3 | 29.7 | 18 |
| Remo Freuler | M | 81 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 100% | 0 | 0.3 | 87.7 | 37.9 | 18 |
| Ricardo Rodríguez | D | 85 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 1244% | 0 | 0.1 | 80.7 | 33.8 | 18 |
| Manuel Akanji | D | 92 | 0 | 0.32 | 0.02 | 1569% | 0 | 0.1 | 89.5 | 21.1 | 14 |
| Nico Elvedi | D | 90 | 0 | 0.17 | 0.03 | 495% | 1 | 0.2 | 84.1 | 26.9 | 16 |
| Denis Zakaria | M | 95 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.04 | ok | 1 | 0.3 | 89.0 | 16.6 | 16 |
| Team totals | 1 | 1.31 | | 11 | | 85.8 | |
Colombia — projected line vs season baseline (4-3-3)
| Player | Pos | Min | Proj G | Proj xG | Season xG/g | | Proj Sh | Season Sh/g | Proj Rtg | Season Rtg | Rec |
|---|
| Luis Javier Suárez | F | 81 | 0 | 0.17 | 0.32 | 46% | 2 | 2.5 | 84.2 | 66.3 | 12 |
| James Rodríguez | M | 71 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.03 | 114% | 2 | 0.5 | 96.2 | 26.0 | 11 |
| Jefferson Lerma | M | 75 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 100% | 2 | 0.5 | 83.8 | 48.9 | 11 |
| Jhon Arias | M | 72 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.17 | 80% | 1 | 1.4 | 85.3 | 41.4 | 14 |
| Gustavo Puerta | M | 88 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.05 | 84% | 3 | 1.6 | 75.2 | 40.0 | 9 |
| Johan Mojica | D | 84 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.03 | 114% | 0 | 0.4 | 84.8 | 27.0 | 10 |
| Jhon Lucumí | D | 89 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.01 | 669% | 0 | 0.1 | 83.4 | 61.3 | 9 |
| Davinson Sánchez | D | 92 | 0 | 0.18 | 0.06 | 187% | 1 | 0.8 | 89.3 | 54.6 | 9 |
| Daniel Muñoz | M | 79 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.06 | ok | 1 | 0.4 | 88.3 | 38.4 | 15 |
| Camilo Vargas | G | 88 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | | 0.0 | 88.7 | 64.4 | 9 |
| Luis Díaz | M | 95 | 0 | 0.22 | 0.28 | ok | 2 | 2.2 | 92.9 | 52.4 | 18 |
| Team totals | 0 | 1.02 | | 17 | | 86.5 | |
Antagonist / tactical summary
Midfield is evenly contested — Johan Manzambi vs Luis Díaz will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 1.11, Away: 0.80. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel.
Midfield — possession 51.6% / 48.4%, dominance ratio 0.51, key duel: Johan Manzambi vs Luis Díaz
Rubén Vargas xG 0.14Granit Xhaka xG 0.21Dan Ndoye xG 0.25Luis Javier Suárez xG 0.21Jefferson Lerma xG 0.22James Rodríguez xG 0.04
Summary
Antagonist matchup analysis for Switzerland vs Colombia. Most likely scoreline: 1-0. Lambdas derived from 5 home and 5 away individual player duels.
Tactical parity between 4-2-3-1 and 4-3-3. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Midfield is evenly contested — Johan Manzambi vs Luis Díaz will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 1.11, Away: 0.80. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel.
Argentina vs Egypt
World Championship · 20260707 · 4-4-2 vs 4-2-3-1
Predicted 1-0Winner: ArgentinaConfidence 0.8λ home/away 2.07 / 0.71Most-likely P 13.9%
Actual vs predicted: result not available yet (upcoming fixture).
Lambda decomposition (how the goal rates were built)
| Stage | Argentina λ | Egypt λ |
|---|
| Pre-mismatch | 1.870 | 0.735 |
| Pre-calibration | 1.870 | 0.735 |
| Final λ | 2.074 | 0.712 |
competition calibration scale 1.0competition observed total goals 0.0quality gap applied Truemismatch score pressure applied Truecompetitive underdog floor applied Falsestage discount 1.0
Scoreline distribution & markets
| Top 5 scorelines | P |
|---|
| 1-0 | 13.9% |
| 2-0 | 13.8% |
| 1-1 | 9.5% |
| 2-1 | 9.3% |
| 3-0 | 9.0% |
| Home win | 67.9% |
| Draw | 20.3% |
| Away win | 11.8% |
| Over 2.5 | 49.3% |
| BTTS yes | 42.4% |
Pregame fair line — favorite Argentina (67.9%), fair total 2.79, fair spread 1.36
Projected players vs season baseline
Proj = projected for this match · Season = this season's per-game average from match data · deviation badge compares projected xG to the player's season xG/game.
Argentina — projected line vs season baseline (4-4-2)
| Player | Pos | Min | Proj G | Proj xG | Season xG/g | | Proj Sh | Season Sh/g | Proj Rtg | Season Rtg | Rec |
|---|
| Lautaro Martínez | F | 58 | 0 | 0.33 | 0.37 | ok | 3 | 1.3 | 95.2 | 55.1 | 10 |
| Lionel Messi | F | 76 | 1 | 0.88 | 0.49 | 78% | 5 | 2.8 | 94.3 | 51.8 | 12 |
| Thiago Almada | M | 55 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 100% | 2 | 0.1 | 85.7 | 31.3 | 15 |
| Enzo Fernández | M | 86 | 0 | 0.21 | 0.09 | 141% | 2 | 0.9 | 91.6 | 39.2 | 15 |
| Alexis Mac Allister | M | 91 | 0 | 0.12 | 0.13 | ok | 2 | 1.2 | 94.5 | 42.6 | 17 |
| Rodrigo De Paul | M | 85 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 100% | 2 | 0.5 | 91.1 | 38.3 | 11 |
| Nicolás Tagliafico | D | 76 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 1220% | 0 | 0.2 | 84.5 | 29.7 | 13 |
| Lisandro Martínez | D | 95 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.01 | 887% | 0 | 0.2 | 88.8 | 38.2 | 13 |
| Cristian Romero | D | 93 | 0 | 0.16 | 0.03 | 420% | 0 | 0.2 | 89.6 | 32.4 | 13 |
| Nahuel Molina | D | 64 | 0 | 0.15 | 0.01 | 1963% | 0 | 0.1 | 85.8 | 41.9 | 14 |
| Emiliano Martínez | G | 91 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | | 0.0 | 91.9 | 48.4 | 20 |
| Team totals | 1 | 2.07 | | 17 | | 90.3 | |
Egypt — projected line vs season baseline (4-2-3-1)
| Player | Pos | Min | Proj G | Proj xG | Season xG/g | | Proj Sh | Season Sh/g | Proj Rtg | Season Rtg | Rec |
|---|
| Emam Ashour | M | 71 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.11 | 55% | 2 | 1.2 | 88.4 | 56.2 | 6 |
| Marwan Attia | M | 78 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 100% | 0 | 0.2 | 89.2 | 58.7 | 6 |
| Mohanad Lasheen | M | 88 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 100% | 1 | 0.4 | 88.8 | 68.6 | 5 |
| Rami Rabia | D | 52 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | 0 | 0.0 | 87.9 | 70.5 | 4 |
| Yasser Ibrahim | D | 85 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 100% | 0 | 0.2 | 87.8 | 58.0 | 6 |
| Hamdy Fathy | M | 88 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | 0 | 0.4 | 90.3 | 44.6 | 11 |
| Mohamed Hany | D | 88 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.02 | 70% | 1 | 0.8 | 88.8 | 55.0 | 6 |
| Mostafa Shobeir | G | 88 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | | 0.0 | 89.2 | 62.2 | 6 |
| Mohamed Salah | M | 73 | 0 | 0.28 | 0.28 | ok | 2 | 1.6 | 98.2 | 53.3 | 12 |
| Mostafa Ziko | M | 75 | 0 | 0.12 | 0.20 | 41% | 2 | 1.1 | 88.5 | 39.7 | 7 |
| Omar Marmoush | F | 52 | 0 | 0.13 | 0.08 | 52% | 2 | 1.1 | 91.6 | 44.7 | 14 |
| Team totals | 0 | 0.71 | | 11 | | 89.9 | |
Antagonist / tactical summary
Home midfield dominates with ~53% possession expected (Enzo Fernández vs Mohamed Salah). Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.66, Away: 0.58. Home danger zone: Right Mid vs Left Back — Wide Channel. Away danger zone: CAM vs CM.
Midfield — possession 52.8% / 47.2%, dominance ratio 0.58, key duel: Enzo Fernández vs Mohamed Salah
Lautaro Martínez xG 0.18Enzo Fernández xG 0.16Rodrigo De Paul xG 0.18Emam Ashour xG 0.04Mostafa Ziko xG 0.12Mohamed Salah xG 0.27
Summary
Antagonist matchup analysis for Argentina vs Egypt. Most likely scoreline: 1-0. Lambdas derived from 4 home and 5 away individual player duels.
Tactical parity between 4-4-2 and 4-2-3-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Home midfield dominates with ~53% possession expected (Enzo Fernández vs Mohamed Salah). Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.66, Away: 0.58. Home danger zone: Right Mid vs Left Back — Wide Channel. Away danger zone: CAM vs CM.
Switzerland vs W87
World Championship · 20260707 · 3-5-2 vs 4-4-2
Predicted 2-0Winner: SwitzerlandConfidence 0.82λ home/away 2.28 / 0.70Most-likely P 13.8%
Actual vs predicted: result not available yet (upcoming fixture).
Lambda decomposition (how the goal rates were built)
| Stage | Switzerland λ | W87 λ |
|---|
| Pre-mismatch | 1.876 | 0.756 |
| Pre-calibration | 1.876 | 0.756 |
| Final λ | 2.278 | 0.700 |
competition calibration scale 1.0competition observed total goals 0.0quality gap applied Truemismatch score pressure applied Truecompetitive underdog floor applied Falsestage discount 1.0
Scoreline distribution & markets
| Top 5 scorelines | P |
|---|
| 2-0 | 13.8% |
| 1-0 | 12.8% |
| 3-0 | 10.0% |
| 2-1 | 9.2% |
| 1-1 | 8.5% |
| Home win | 71.9% |
| Draw | 18.1% |
| Away win | 10.0% |
| Over 2.5 | 53.7% |
| BTTS yes | 43.0% |
Pregame fair line — favorite Switzerland (71.9%), fair total 2.98, fair spread 1.58
Projected players vs season baseline
Proj = projected for this match · Season = this season's per-game average from match data · deviation badge compares projected xG to the player's season xG/game.
Switzerland — projected line vs season baseline (3-5-2)
| Player | Pos | Min | Proj G | Proj xG | Season xG/g | | Proj Sh | Season Sh/g | Proj Rtg | Season Rtg | Rec |
|---|
| Gregor Kobel | G | 95 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | | 0.0 | 93.6 | 36.6 | 16 |
| Manuel Akanji | D | 91 | 0 | 0.36 | 0.02 | 1804% | 0 | 0.1 | 89.5 | 21.1 | 14 |
| Luca Jaquez | D | 45 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | 0 | 0.0 | 75.6 | 26.9 | 17 |
| Aurèle Amenda | D | 90 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | 0 | 0.0 | 77.4 | 10.7 | 18 |
| Johan Manzambi | M | 84 | 1 | 0.39 | 0.09 | 311% | 2 | 1.1 | 74.4 | 41.6 | 25 |
| Dan Ndoye | M | 88 | 0 | 0.14 | 0.03 | 386% | 1 | 0.6 | 86.4 | 18.2 | 23 |
| Ardon Jashari | M | 55 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 100% | 1 | 0.1 | 83.8 | 13.1 | 15 |
| Denis Zakaria | M | 93 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.04 | 107% | 1 | 0.3 | 89.0 | 16.6 | 16 |
| Rubén Vargas | M | 70 | 0 | 0.27 | 0.07 | 292% | 1 | 0.7 | 81.9 | 31.8 | 18 |
| Noah Okafor | F | 51 | 0 | 0.15 | 0.01 | 2646% | 2 | 0.1 | 83.1 | 4.9 | 14 |
| Breel Embolo | F | 81 | 1 | 0.89 | 0.27 | 222% | 2 | 1.0 | 84.0 | 32.7 | 15 |
| Team totals | 2 | 2.28 | | 10 | | 83.5 | |
W87 — projected line vs season baseline (4-4-2)
| Player | Pos | Min | Proj G | Proj xG | Season xG/g | | Proj Sh | Season Sh/g | Proj Rtg | Season Rtg | Rec |
|---|
| W87 G1 | G | 90 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | | - | 6.8 | - | 0 |
| W87 D1 | D | 90 | 0 | 0.01 | - | n/a | 0 | - | 6.8 | - | 0 |
| W87 D2 | D | 90 | 0 | 0.01 | - | n/a | 0 | - | 6.8 | - | 0 |
| W87 D3 | D | 90 | 0 | 0.01 | - | n/a | 0 | - | 6.8 | - | 0 |
| W87 D4 | D | 90 | 0 | 0.01 | - | n/a | 0 | - | 6.8 | - | 0 |
| W87 M1 | M | 90 | 0 | 0.06 | - | n/a | 1 | - | 6.9 | - | 0 |
| W87 M2 | M | 90 | 0 | 0.06 | - | n/a | 1 | - | 6.9 | - | 0 |
| W87 M3 | M | 90 | 0 | 0.06 | - | n/a | 1 | - | 6.9 | - | 0 |
| W87 M4 | M | 90 | 0 | 0.06 | - | n/a | 1 | - | 6.9 | - | 0 |
| W87 F1 | F | 90 | 0 | 0.11 | - | n/a | 2 | - | 6.9 | - | 0 |
| W87 F2 | F | 90 | 0 | 0.17 | - | n/a | 2 | - | 6.9 | - | 0 |
| Team totals | 0 | 0.70 | | 10 | | 6.8 | |
Antagonist / tactical summary
Home midfield dominates with ~54% possession expected (Johan Manzambi vs W87 M1). Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.56, Away: 0.35. Home danger zone: Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle.
Midfield — possession 54.0% / 46.0%, dominance ratio 0.61, key duel: Johan Manzambi vs W87 M1
Noah Okafor xG 0.07Ardon Jashari xG 0.12Rubén Vargas xG 0.13W87 F1 xG 0.15W87 M1 xG 0.08W87 M4 xG 0.07
Summary
Antagonist matchup analysis for Switzerland vs W87. Most likely scoreline: 2-0. Lambdas derived from 5 home and 4 away individual player duels.
Tactical parity between 3-5-2 and 4-4-2. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Home midfield dominates with ~54% possession expected (Johan Manzambi vs W87 M1). Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.56, Away: 0.35. Home danger zone: Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle.
Generated 2026-09-04 22:27:55 UTC · Soccer prediction reporting