France vs Morocco
FIFA World Cup · 20260709 · 4-2-3-1 vs 4-2-3-1
Predicted 1-1Winner: FranceConfidence 0.75λ home/away 1.72 / 1.05Most-likely P 11.8%
Actual vs predicted: result not available yet (upcoming fixture).
Lambda decomposition (how the goal rates were built)
| Stage | France λ | Morocco λ |
|---|
| Pre-competitive-floor | 1.721 | 0.695 |
| Pre-calibration | 1.721 | 0.695 |
| Final λ | 1.721 | 1.050 |
competition calibration scale 1.0competition observed total goals 0.0quality gap applied Truemismatch score pressure applied Falsecompetitive underdog floor applied Truestage discount 1.0
Scoreline distribution & markets
| Top 5 scorelines | P |
|---|
| 1-1 | 11.8% |
| 1-0 | 11.7% |
| 2-0 | 9.6% |
| 2-1 | 9.6% |
| 0-0 | 7.3% |
| Home win | 52.2% |
| Draw | 24.8% |
| Away win | 23.0% |
| Over 2.5 | 49.0% |
| BTTS yes | 50.9% |
Pregame fair line — favorite France (52.2%), fair total 2.77, fair spread 0.67
Projected players vs season baseline
Proj = projected for this match · Season = this season's per-game average from match data · deviation badge compares projected xG to the player's season xG/game.
France — projected line vs season baseline (4-2-3-1)
| Player | Pos | Min | Proj G | Proj xG | Season xG/g | | Proj Sh | Season Sh/g | Proj Rtg | Season Rtg | Rec |
|---|
| Kylian Mbappé | F | 86 | 1 | 0.63 | 0.55 | ok | 3 | 3.5 | 99.1 | 57.6 | 19 |
| Bradley Barcola | F | 47 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.17 | 96% | 2 | 1.1 | 91.8 | 61.7 | 18 |
| Michael Olise | M | 87 | 0 | 0.13 | 0.29 | 54% | 2 | 2.8 | 94.1 | 73.5 | 17 |
| Ousmane Dembélé | F | 75 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.24 | 53% | 2 | 1.6 | 97.4 | 54.3 | 24 |
| Adrien Rabiot | M | 93 | 0 | 0.14 | 0.12 | ok | 1 | 1.5 | 90.3 | 57.3 | 12 |
| Manu Koné | M | 79 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.02 | 166% | 1 | 0.5 | 86.5 | 42.8 | 11 |
| Lucas Digne | D | 80 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.01 | 447% | 0 | 0.3 | 86.7 | 50.0 | 19 |
| William Saliba | D | 95 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.01 | 713% | 0 | 0.2 | 94.9 | 51.4 | 19 |
| Dayot Upamecano | D | 94 | 0 | 0.40 | 0.11 | 254% | 1 | 0.6 | 93.1 | 59.0 | 18 |
| Jules Koundé | D | 95 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.01 | 656% | 0 | 0.2 | 94.8 | 47.4 | 17 |
| Mike Maignan | G | 94 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | | 0.0 | 94.2 | 63.8 | 12 |
| Team totals | 1 | 1.72 | | 13 | | 93.0 | |
Morocco — projected line vs season baseline (4-2-3-1)
| Player | Pos | Min | Proj G | Proj xG | Season xG/g | | Proj Sh | Season Sh/g | Proj Rtg | Season Rtg | Rec |
|---|
| Soufiane Rahimi | F | 28 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.12 | 64% | 2 | 0.8 | 85.1 | 57.8 | 6 |
| Bilal El Khannouss | M | 76 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.05 | ok | 2 | 1.2 | 83.2 | 51.7 | 12 |
| Azzedine Ounahi | M | 76 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.09 | ok | 2 | 1.6 | 83.0 | 65.2 | 9 |
| Brahim Díaz | M | 65 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.09 | 68% | 2 | 0.8 | 86.4 | 46.6 | 18 |
| Neil El Aynaoui | M | 76 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 100% | 1 | 0.7 | 84.2 | 62.1 | 10 |
| Ayyoub Bouaddi | M | 76 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 100% | 0 | 0.3 | 82.5 | 55.2 | 11 |
| Noussair Mazraoui | D | 76 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | 0 | 0.0 | 87.4 | 44.9 | 11 |
| Chadi Riad | D | 89 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.02 | 158% | 1 | 0.2 | 79.0 | 25.5 | 13 |
| Issa Diop | D | 81 | 0 | 0.47 | 0.07 | 620% | 0 | 0.1 | 82.8 | 39.8 | 12 |
| Achraf Hakimi | D | 95 | 0 | 0.33 | 0.18 | 79% | 2 | 1.3 | 96.8 | 63.7 | 11 |
| Yassine Bounou | G | 88 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | | 0.0 | 91.5 | 62.2 | 10 |
| Team totals | 1 | 1.05 | | 13 | | 85.6 | |
Antagonist / tactical summary
Midfield is evenly contested — Michael Olise vs Ayyoub Bouaddi will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.92, Away: 0.35. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle.
Midfield — possession 50.9% / 49.1%, dominance ratio 0.51, key duel: Michael Olise vs Ayyoub Bouaddi
Michael Olise xG 0.15Bradley Barcola xG 0.01Ousmane Dembélé xG 0.10Azzedine Ounahi xG 0.10Bilal El Khannouss xG 0.08Brahim Díaz xG 0.03
Summary
Antagonist matchup analysis for France vs Morocco. Most likely scoreline: 1-1. Lambdas derived from 5 home and 5 away individual player duels.
Tactical parity between 4-2-3-1 and 4-2-3-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Midfield is evenly contested — Michael Olise vs Ayyoub Bouaddi will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.92, Away: 0.35. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle.