Soccer predictions: actual data vs predicted data

Slate 20260710 · 1 match(es)
How to read this report. Each match shows the model's headline prediction, the stage-by-stage lambda (goal-rate) build, both teams' standing/form inputs, and every starter's projected line next to their real season baseline. A moderate / large deviation badge flags a projection that strays far from the player's season form — a quick way to spot when the inputs look right but a projection does not. When the real result is known an actual-vs-predicted banner appears.

All matches overview

MatchScoreWinnerH / D / AO2.5BTTSConfλ H/AActualResult
Spain vs Belgium
FIFA World Cup
1-1Spain55.0% / 23.7% / 21.3%51.9%52.3%0.761.85 / 1.05-pending

Match detail

Spain vs Belgium

FIFA World Cup · 20260710 · 4-2-3-1 vs 4-3-3
Predicted 1-1Winner: SpainConfidence 0.76λ home/away 1.85 / 1.05Most-likely P 11.2%
Actual vs predicted: result not available yet (upcoming fixture).

Lambda decomposition (how the goal rates were built)

StageSpain λBelgium λ
Pre-competitive-floor1.8460.692
Pre-calibration1.8460.692
Final λ1.8461.050
competition calibration scale 1.0competition observed total goals 0.0quality gap applied Truemismatch score pressure applied Falsecompetitive underdog floor applied Truestage discount 1.0

Scoreline distribution & markets

Top 5 scorelinesP
1-111.2%
1-011.1%
2-09.8%
2-19.8%
0-06.5%
Home win55.0%
Draw23.7%
Away win21.3%
Over 2.551.9%
BTTS yes52.3%
Pregame fair line — favorite Spain (55.0%), fair total 2.90, fair spread 0.80

Projected players vs season baseline

Proj = projected for this match · Season = this season's per-game average from match data · deviation badge compares projected xG to the player's season xG/game.

Spain — projected line vs season baseline (4-2-3-1)

PlayerPosMinProj GProj xGSeason xG/gProj ShSeason Sh/gProj RtgSeason RtgRec
Mikel OyarzabalF6900.290.30ok21.894.154.813
Alex BaenaM4600.060.0447%20.991.246.321
Dani OlmoM5900.090.07ok30.992.750.919
Lamine YamalM9510.540.25118%22.097.045.918
PedriM8200.000.01100%10.297.151.718
RodriM9500.080.0633%21.098.250.515
Marc CucurellaD9500.230.02919%00.291.646.316
Aymeric LaporteD9000.120.02512%10.489.246.414
Pau CubarsíD9200.120.011108%00.289.943.718
Pedro PorroD9500.260.12127%10.989.846.116
Unai SimónG9400.00-n/a0.092.241.515
Team totals11.851593.0

Belgium — projected line vs season baseline (4-3-3)

PlayerPosMinProj GProj xGSeason xG/gProj ShSeason Sh/gProj RtgSeason RtgRec
Youri TielemansM8600.050.05ok20.992.848.818
Hans VanakenM6710.110.10ok21.186.961.411
Nicolas RaskinM6000.000.01100%10.184.353.18
Maxim De CuyperD8400.380.09314%10.887.544.313
Brandon MecheleD8800.140.07114%10.583.159.211
Nathan NgoyD9100.090.02298%10.474.445.212
Timothy CastagneD7700.050.02196%10.383.244.513
Thibaut CourtoisG8700.00-n/a0.095.946.917
Jérémy DokuM9000.050.04ok20.887.842.817
Charles De KetelaereF6700.090.1434%20.789.651.111
Leandro TrossardF4700.030.1577%21.689.845.319
Team totals11.051586.8
Antagonist / tactical summary
Home midfield dominates with ~54% possession expected (Lamine Yamal vs Jérémy Doku). Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.94, Away: 0.35. Home danger zone: Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle. Away danger zone: Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle.
Midfield — possession 53.7% / 46.3%, dominance ratio 0.57, key duel: Lamine Yamal vs Jérémy Doku
Alex Baena xG 0.05Lamine Yamal xG 0.50Dani Olmo xG 0.08Leandro Trossard xG 0.03Hans Vanaken xG 0.12Charles De Ketelaere xG 0.10

Summary

Antagonist matchup analysis for Spain vs Belgium. Most likely scoreline: 1-1. Lambdas derived from 5 home and 5 away individual player duels.
Tactical parity between 4-2-3-1 and 4-3-3. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Home midfield dominates with ~54% possession expected (Lamine Yamal vs Jérémy Doku). Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.94, Away: 0.35. Home danger zone: Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle. Away danger zone: Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle.
Generated 2026-09-04 22:27:55 UTC · Soccer prediction reporting