Soccer predictions: actual data vs predicted data

Slate 20260714 · 2 match(es)

How to read this report. Each match shows the model's headline prediction, the stage-by-stage lambda (goal-rate) build, both teams' standing/form inputs, and every starter's projected line next to their real season baseline. A moderate / large deviation badge flags a projection that strays far from the player's season form — a quick way to spot when the inputs look right but a projection does not. When the real result is known an actual-vs-predicted banner appears.

All matches overview

Match	Score	Winner	H / D / A	O2.5	BTTS	Conf	λ H/A	Actual	Result
France vs Spain World Championship	0-0	France	34.7% / 31.6% / 33.7%	31.2%	39.1%	0.68	1.04 / 1.02	-	pending
France vs W98 FIFA World Cup	2-0	France	81.3% / 12.5% / 6.3%	66.8%	45.4%	0.88	2.93 / 0.70	-	pending

Match detail

France vs Spain

World Championship · 20260714 · 4-2-3-1 vs 4-2-3-1

Predicted 0-0Winner: FranceConfidence 0.68λ home/away 1.04 / 1.02Most-likely P 14.3%

Actual vs predicted: result not available yet (upcoming fixture).

Lambda decomposition (how the goal rates were built)

Stage	France λ	Spain λ
Pre-competitive-floor	1.041	0.768
Pre-calibration	1.041	0.768
Final λ	1.041	1.020

competition calibration scale 1.0competition observed total goals 0.0quality gap applied Falsemismatch score pressure applied Falsecompetitive underdog floor applied Truestage discount 1.0

Scoreline distribution & markets

Top 5 scorelines	P
0-0	14.3%
1-0	13.8%
1-1	13.7%
0-1	13.5%
2-0	6.9%

Home win	34.7%
Draw	31.6%
Away win	33.7%
Over 2.5	31.2%
BTTS yes	39.1%

Pregame fair line — favorite France (34.7%), fair total 2.06, fair spread 0.02

Projected players vs season baseline

Proj = projected for this match · Season = this season's per-game average from match data · deviation badge compares projected xG to the player's season xG/game.

France — projected line vs season baseline (4-2-3-1)

Player	Pos	Min	Proj xG	Season xG/g		Proj Sh	Season Sh/g	Proj Rtg	Season Rtg	Rec
Kylian Mbappé	F	86	0.42	0.55	ok	2	3.5	99.2	57.6	19
Désiré Doué	F	53	0.03	0.09	63%	2	1.4	92.5	53.2	21
Michael Olise	M	88	0.09	0.29	69%	2	2.8	94.3	73.5	17
Ousmane Dembélé	F	75	0.06	0.24	74%	2	1.6	97.4	54.3	24
Adrien Rabiot	M	93	0.04	0.12	65%	1	1.5	90.3	57.3	12
Aurélien Tchouaméni	M	94	0.03	0.04	ok	1	0.6	92.1	38.5	19
Lucas Digne	D	80	0.03	0.01	165%	0	0.3	86.8	50.0	19
William Saliba	D	95	0.05	0.01	373%	0	0.2	94.8	51.4	19
Dayot Upamecano	D	94	0.25	0.11	119%	1	0.6	93.1	59.0	18
Jules Koundé	D	95	0.03	0.01	339%	0	0.2	94.8	47.4	17
Mike Maignan	G	94	0.00	-	n/a		0.0	94.1	63.8	12
Team totals			1.04			11			93.6

Spain — projected line vs season baseline (4-2-3-1)

Player	Pos	Min	Proj xG	Season xG/g		Proj Sh	Season Sh/g	Proj Rtg	Season Rtg	Rec
Lamine Yamal	M	95	0.14	0.25	43%	2	2.0	97.1	45.9	18
Pedri	M	79	0.00	0.01	100%	1	0.2	96.9	51.7	18
Rodri	M	95	0.06	0.06	ok	2	1.0	98.2	50.5	15
Marc Cucurella	D	95	0.14	0.02	554%	0	0.2	91.4	46.3	16
Aymeric Laporte	D	90	0.10	0.02	391%	1	0.4	89.0	46.4	14
Pau Cubarsí	D	93	0.07	0.01	628%	0	0.2	90.0	43.7	18
Pedro Porro	D	95	0.18	0.12	52%	1	0.9	89.9	46.1	16
Unai Simón	G	94	0.00	-	n/a		0.0	91.8	41.5	15
Dani Olmo	M	62	0.06	0.07	ok	2	0.9	92.7	50.9	19
Alex Baena	M	47	0.05	0.04	30%	2	0.9	91.2	46.3	21
Mikel Oyarzabal	F	71	0.17	0.30	43%	2	1.8	94.0	54.8	13
Team totals			1.02			13			92.9

Antagonist / tactical summary

Midfield is evenly contested — Michael Olise vs Lamine Yamal will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.99, Away: 0.50. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle.

Midfield — possession 50.2% / 49.8%, dominance ratio 0.47, key duel: Michael Olise vs Lamine Yamal

Michael Olise xG 0.17Désiré Doué xG 0.05Ousmane Dembélé xG 0.09Lamine Yamal xG 0.15Alex Baena xG 0.06Dani Olmo xG 0.04

Summary

Antagonist matchup analysis for France vs Spain. Most likely scoreline: 0-0. Lambdas derived from 5 home and 5 away individual player duels.

Tactical parity between 4-2-3-1 and 4-2-3-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Midfield is evenly contested — Michael Olise vs Lamine Yamal will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.99, Away: 0.50. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle.

France vs W98

FIFA World Cup · 20260714 · 3-4-2-1 vs 4-4-2

Predicted 2-0Winner: FranceConfidence 0.88λ home/away 2.93 / 0.70Most-likely P 12.4%

Actual vs predicted: result not available yet (upcoming fixture).

Lambda decomposition (how the goal rates were built)

Stage	France λ	W98 λ
Pre-mismatch	2.379	0.756
Pre-calibration	2.379	0.756
Final λ	2.926	0.696

competition calibration scale 1.0competition observed total goals 0.0quality gap applied Truemismatch score pressure applied Truecompetitive underdog floor applied Falsestage discount 1.0

Scoreline distribution & markets

Top 5 scorelines	P
2-0	12.4%
3-0	11.5%
1-0	8.9%
2-1	8.2%
4-0	8.0%

Home win	81.3%
Draw	12.5%
Away win	6.3%
Over 2.5	66.8%
BTTS yes	45.4%

Pregame fair line — favorite France (81.3%), fair total 3.62, fair spread 2.23

Projected players vs season baseline

Proj = projected for this match · Season = this season's per-game average from match data · deviation badge compares projected xG to the player's season xG/game.

France — projected line vs season baseline (3-4-2-1)

Player	Pos	Min	Proj G	Proj xG	Season xG/g		Proj Sh	Season Sh/g	Proj Rtg	Season Rtg	Rec
Robin Risser	G	95	0	0.00	-	n/a		0.0	78.2	16.1	13
William Saliba	D	95	0	0.15	0.01	1256%	0	0.2	94.9	51.4	19
Jules Koundé	D	95	0	0.09	0.01	1164%	0	0.2	94.8	47.4	17
Dayot Upamecano	D	92	0	0.38	0.11	242%	1	0.6	93.1	59.0	18
Michael Olise	M	88	0	0.27	0.29	ok	4	2.8	94.1	73.5	17
Aurélien Tchouaméni	M	93	0	0.09	0.04	136%	2	0.6	92.1	38.5	19
Rayan Cherki	M	59	0	0.11	0.03	264%	1	0.6	88.2	49.0	18
Warren Zaïre-Emery	M	89	0	0.06	0.00	1514%	1	0.1	87.4	37.1	16
Kylian Mbappé	F	88	2	1.25	0.55	128%	3	3.5	99.1	57.6	19
Ousmane Dembélé	F	81	0	0.22	0.24	ok	2	1.6	97.4	54.3	24
Désiré Doué	F	70	0	0.30	0.09	229%	3	1.4	92.5	53.2	21
Team totals			2	2.93			17			92.0

W98 — projected line vs season baseline (4-4-2)

Player	Pos	Min	Proj xG	Season xG/g		Proj Sh	Season Sh/g	Proj Rtg	Season Rtg	Rec
W98 G1	G	90	0.00	-	n/a		-	6.8	-	0
W98 D1	D	90	0.01	-	n/a	0	-	6.8	-	0
W98 D2	D	90	0.01	-	n/a	0	-	6.8	-	0
W98 D3	D	90	0.01	-	n/a	0	-	6.8	-	0
W98 D4	D	90	0.01	-	n/a	0	-	6.8	-	0
W98 M1	M	90	0.07	-	n/a	1	-	6.9	-	0
W98 M2	M	90	0.07	-	n/a	1	-	6.9	-	0
W98 M3	M	90	0.07	-	n/a	1	-	6.9	-	0
W98 M4	M	90	0.07	-	n/a	1	-	6.9	-	0
W98 F1	F	90	0.12	-	n/a	2	-	6.9	-	0
W98 F2	F	90	0.12	-	n/a	2	-	6.9	-	0
Team totals			0.70			10			6.8

Antagonist / tactical summary

Home midfield dominates with ~55% possession expected (Michael Olise vs W98 M1). Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.97, Away: 0.50. Home danger zone: Shadow Striker vs CB + Mid Cover — Layered Defense. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle.

Midfield — possession 55.0% / 45.0%, dominance ratio 0.66, key duel: Michael Olise vs W98 M1

Désiré Doué xG 0.15Kylian Mbappé xG 0.65Rayan Cherki xG 0.07W98 M1 xG 0.05W98 M2 xG 0.05W98 M3 xG 0.05

Summary

Antagonist matchup analysis for France vs W98. Most likely scoreline: 2-0. Lambdas derived from 5 home and 6 away individual player duels.

Tactical parity between 3-4-2-1 and 4-4-2. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Home midfield dominates with ~55% possession expected (Michael Olise vs W98 M1). Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.97, Away: 0.50. Home danger zone: Shadow Striker vs CB + Mid Cover — Layered Defense. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle.

Generated 2026-09-04 22:27:55 UTC · Soccer prediction reporting