Soccer predictions: actual data vs predicted data

Slate 20260715 · 1 match(es)

How to read this report. Each match shows the model's headline prediction, the stage-by-stage lambda (goal-rate) build, both teams' standing/form inputs, and every starter's projected line next to their real season baseline. A moderate / large deviation badge flags a projection that strays far from the player's season form — a quick way to spot when the inputs look right but a projection does not. When the real result is known an actual-vs-predicted banner appears.

All matches overview

Match	Score	Winner	H / D / A	O2.5	BTTS	Conf	λ H/A	Actual	Result
England vs Argentina World Championship	2-0	England	74.7% / 16.4% / 8.8%	57.3%	43.7%	0.84	2.45 / 0.70	-	pending

Match detail

England vs Argentina

World Championship · 20260715 · 4-2-3-1 vs 4-1-3-2

Predicted 2-0Winner: EnglandConfidence 0.84λ home/away 2.45 / 0.70Most-likely P 13.7%

Actual vs predicted: result not available yet (upcoming fixture).

Lambda decomposition (how the goal rates were built)

Stage	England λ	Argentina λ
Pre-mismatch	2.260	0.711
Pre-calibration	2.260	0.711
Final λ	2.446	0.696

competition calibration scale 1.0competition observed total goals 0.0quality gap applied Truemismatch score pressure applied Truecompetitive underdog floor applied Falsestage discount 1.0

Scoreline distribution & markets

Top 5 scorelines	P
2-0	13.7%
1-0	11.7%
3-0	10.6%
2-1	9.0%
1-1	7.8%

Home win	74.7%
Draw	16.4%
Away win	8.8%
Over 2.5	57.3%
BTTS yes	43.7%

Pregame fair line — favorite England (74.7%), fair total 3.14, fair spread 1.75

Projected players vs season baseline

Proj = projected for this match · Season = this season's per-game average from match data · deviation badge compares projected xG to the player's season xG/game.

England — projected line vs season baseline (4-2-3-1)

Player	Pos	Min	Proj G	Proj xG	Season xG/g		Proj Sh	Season Sh/g	Proj Rtg	Season Rtg	Rec
Jordan Pickford	G	92	0	0.00	-	n/a		0.0	90.6	42.9	14
Harry Kane	F	94	1	0.87	0.46	90%	3	2.6	97.4	63.5	17
Anthony Gordon	F	49	0	0.01	0.04	82%	2	0.3	90.3	22.7	21
Jude Bellingham	M	79	1	0.50	0.18	183%	2	1.1	98.4	57.3	16
Bukayo Saka	F	41	0	0.00	0.16	98%	2	1.2	95.6	45.5	19
Declan Rice	M	95	0	0.00	0.02	100%	2	0.7	94.9	52.2	20
Elliot Anderson	M	94	0	0.05	0.04	50%	2	1.0	88.2	57.3	18
Nico O'Reilly	D	89	0	0.35	0.12	191%	1	0.7	80.2	37.8	15
Marc Guéhi	D	86	0	0.17	0.02	636%	0	0.2	90.0	53.1	16
Ezri Konsa	D	95	0	0.46	0.07	530%	1	0.3	89.7	52.6	20
Reece James	D	80	0	0.04	0.00	848%	1	0.1	88.7	28.9	14
Team totals			2	2.45			16			91.3

Argentina — projected line vs season baseline (4-1-3-2)

Player	Pos	Min	Proj xG	Season xG/g		Proj Sh	Season Sh/g	Proj Rtg	Season Rtg	Rec
Lionel Messi	F	78	0.21	0.49	58%	2	2.8	94.4	51.8	12
Enzo Fernández	M	87	0.07	0.09	ok	2	0.9	91.6	39.2	15
Alexis Mac Allister	M	92	0.05	0.13	62%	1	1.2	94.4	42.6	17
Rodrigo De Paul	M	84	0.00	0.10	100%	1	0.5	91.0	38.3	11
Leandro Paredes	M	70	0.02	0.02	43%	1	0.6	85.1	37.9	14
Nicolás Tagliafico	D	75	0.02	0.00	343%	0	0.2	84.4	29.7	13
Lisandro Martínez	D	95	0.02	0.01	148%	1	0.2	88.7	38.2	13
Cristian Romero	D	93	0.11	0.03	271%	0	0.2	89.6	32.4	13
Nahuel Molina	D	65	0.05	0.01	592%	0	0.1	85.8	41.9	14
Emiliano Martínez	G	91	0.00	-	n/a		0.0	91.7	48.4	20
Julián Alvarez	F	81	0.10	0.25	59%	2	1.4	94.2	44.4	18
Team totals			0.70			11			90.1

Antagonist / tactical summary

Midfield is evenly contested — Jude Bellingham vs Enzo Fernández will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 1.09, Away: 0.69. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle.

Midfield — possession 51.4% / 48.6%, dominance ratio 0.55, key duel: Jude Bellingham vs Enzo Fernández

Declan Rice xG 0.38Harry Kane xG 0.70Anthony Gordon xG 0.01Lionel Messi xG 0.34Leandro Paredes xG 0.03Rodrigo De Paul xG 0.13

Summary

Antagonist matchup analysis for England vs Argentina. Most likely scoreline: 2-0. Lambdas derived from 4 home and 5 away individual player duels.

Tactical parity between 4-2-3-1 and 4-1-3-2. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Midfield is evenly contested — Jude Bellingham vs Enzo Fernández will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 1.09, Away: 0.69. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle.

Generated 2026-09-04 22:27:55 UTC · Soccer prediction reporting