Soccer predictions: actual data vs predicted data

Slate 20260718 · 2 match(es)

How to read this report. Each match shows the model's headline prediction, the stage-by-stage lambda (goal-rate) build, both teams' standing/form inputs, and every starter's projected line next to their real season baseline. A moderate / large deviation badge flags a projection that strays far from the player's season form — a quick way to spot when the inputs look right but a projection does not. When the real result is known an actual-vs-predicted banner appears.

All matches overview

Match	Score	Winner	H / D / A	O2.5	BTTS	Conf	λ H/A	Actual	Result
France vs England FIFA World Cup	1-0	France	38.8% / 30.1% / 31.1%	35.0%	42.2%	0.7	1.18 / 1.03	-	pending
France vs L102 World Championship	2-0	France	83.5% / 11.1% / 5.5%	70.2%	45.9%	0.89	3.12 / 0.70	-	pending

Match detail

France vs England

FIFA World Cup · 20260718 · 4-2-3-1 vs 4-1-2-3

Predicted 1-0Winner: FranceConfidence 0.7λ home/away 1.18 / 1.03Most-likely P 13.6%

Actual vs predicted: result not available yet (upcoming fixture).

Lambda decomposition (how the goal rates were built)

Stage	France λ	England λ
Pre-competitive-floor	1.184	1.027
Pre-calibration	1.184	1.027
Final λ	1.184	1.027

competition calibration scale 1.0competition observed total goals 0.0quality gap applied Falsemismatch score pressure applied Falsecompetitive underdog floor applied Falsestage discount 1.0

Scoreline distribution & markets

Top 5 scorelines	P
1-0	13.6%
1-1	13.6%
0-0	12.4%
0-1	11.8%
2-0	7.7%

Home win	38.8%
Draw	30.1%
Away win	31.1%
Over 2.5	35.0%
BTTS yes	42.2%

Pregame fair line — favorite France (38.8%), fair total 2.21, fair spread 0.16

Projected players vs season baseline

Proj = projected for this match · Season = this season's per-game average from match data · deviation badge compares projected xG to the player's season xG/game.

France — projected line vs season baseline (4-2-3-1)

Player	Pos	Min	Proj G	Proj xG	Season xG/g		Proj Sh	Season Sh/g	Proj Rtg	Season Rtg	Rec
Kylian Mbappé	F	86	1	0.55	0.55	ok	2	3.5	99.2	57.6	19
Bradley Barcola	F	44	0	0.01	0.17	96%	2	1.1	91.7	61.7	18
Rayan Cherki	M	34	0	0.00	0.03	100%	2	0.6	88.3	49.0	18
Ousmane Dembélé	F	75	0	0.13	0.24	47%	2	1.6	97.4	54.3	24
Warren Zaïre-Emery	M	78	0	0.00	0.00	100%	0	0.1	87.3	37.1	16
N'Golo Kanté	M	89	0	0.00	0.01	100%	0	0.1	92.1	21.9	13
Theo Hernández	D	67	0	0.09	0.03	263%	1	0.7	90.9	47.3	13
Maxence Lacroix	D	91	0	0.05	0.01	834%	1	0.1	86.6	25.7	16
Ibrahima Konaté	D	86	0	0.13	0.03	403%	1	0.3	93.6	28.1	19
Malo Gusto	D	28	0	0.18	0.01	1398%	0	0.1	86.1	33.1	14
Mike Maignan	G	94	0	0.00	-	n/a		0.0	94.1	63.8	12
Team totals			1	1.18			13			91.6

England — projected line vs season baseline (4-1-2-3)

Player	Pos	Min	Proj xG	Season xG/g		Proj Sh	Season Sh/g	Proj Rtg	Season Rtg	Rec
Morgan Rogers	M	79	0.04	0.11	63%	2	1.2	89.4	51.8	20
Eberechi Eze	M	54	0.03	0.08	62%	2	1.0	90.6	46.6	18
Kobbie Mainoo	M	95	0.02	0.02	58%	1	0.2	84.6	17.4	12
Nico O'Reilly	D	89	0.14	0.12	ok	1	0.7	80.2	37.8	15
Ezri Konsa	D	95	0.19	0.07	163%	1	0.3	89.7	52.6	20
Marc Guéhi	D	86	0.07	0.02	207%	0	0.2	90.0	53.1	16
Djed Spence	D	43	0.15	0.05	241%	0	0.2	85.3	61.8	13
Jordan Pickford	G	92	0.00	-	n/a		0.0	90.6	42.9	14
Noni Madueke	F	45	0.00	0.04	96%	2	0.6	87.2	35.1	22
Harry Kane	F	94	0.31	0.46	31%	2	2.6	97.4	63.5	17
Marcus Rashford	F	20	0.00	0.11	99%	2	1.2	87.5	35.0	19
Team totals			1.03			13			88.4

Antagonist / tactical summary

Midfield is evenly contested — Rayan Cherki vs Morgan Rogers will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 1.02, Away: 0.75. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle.

Midfield — possession 48.3% / 51.7%, dominance ratio 0.46, key duel: Rayan Cherki vs Morgan Rogers

Rayan Cherki xG 0.33Kylian Mbappé xG 0.56Bradley Barcola xG 0.01Morgan Rogers xG 0.08Eberechi Eze xG 0.06Noni Madueke xG 0.00

Summary

Antagonist matchup analysis for France vs England. Most likely scoreline: 1-0. Lambdas derived from 4 home and 5 away individual player duels.

Tactical parity between 4-2-3-1 and 4-1-2-3. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Midfield is evenly contested — Rayan Cherki vs Morgan Rogers will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 1.02, Away: 0.75. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle.

France vs L102

World Championship · 20260718 · 3-4-2-1 vs 4-4-2

Predicted 2-0Winner: FranceConfidence 0.89λ home/away 3.12 / 0.70Most-likely P 11.7%

Actual vs predicted: result not available yet (upcoming fixture).

Lambda decomposition (how the goal rates were built)

Stage	France λ	L102 λ
Pre-mismatch	2.538	0.756
Pre-calibration	2.538	0.756
Final λ	3.122	0.696

competition calibration scale 1.0competition observed total goals 0.0quality gap applied Truemismatch score pressure applied Truecompetitive underdog floor applied Falsestage discount 1.0

Scoreline distribution & markets

Top 5 scorelines	P
2-0	11.7%
3-0	11.6%
4-0	8.6%
1-0	7.9%
2-1	7.7%

Home win	83.5%
Draw	11.1%
Away win	5.5%
Over 2.5	70.2%
BTTS yes	45.9%

Pregame fair line — favorite France (83.5%), fair total 3.82, fair spread 2.43

Projected players vs season baseline

Proj = projected for this match · Season = this season's per-game average from match data · deviation badge compares projected xG to the player's season xG/game.

France — projected line vs season baseline (3-4-2-1)

Player	Pos	Min	Proj G	Proj xG	Season xG/g		Proj Sh	Season Sh/g	Proj Rtg	Season Rtg	Rec
Robin Risser	G	95	0	0.00	-	n/a		0.0	78.2	16.1	13
William Saliba	D	95	0	0.15	0.01	1234%	0	0.2	94.8	51.4	19
Jules Koundé	D	95	0	0.08	0.01	1143%	0	0.2	94.8	47.4	17
Dayot Upamecano	D	92	0	0.40	0.11	257%	1	0.6	93.1	59.0	18
Michael Olise	M	89	0	0.29	0.29	ok	4	2.8	94.3	73.5	17
Aurélien Tchouaméni	M	93	0	0.09	0.04	133%	2	0.6	92.1	38.5	19
Rayan Cherki	M	59	0	0.11	0.03	258%	1	0.6	88.3	49.0	18
Warren Zaïre-Emery	M	83	0	0.06	0.00	1489%	1	0.1	87.2	37.1	16
Kylian Mbappé	F	88	2	1.42	0.55	160%	3	3.5	99.2	57.6	19
Ousmane Dembélé	F	81	0	0.22	0.24	ok	2	1.6	97.4	54.3	24
Désiré Doué	F	70	0	0.30	0.09	225%	3	1.4	92.5	53.2	21
Team totals			2	3.12			17			92.0

L102 — projected line vs season baseline (4-4-2)

Player	Pos	Min	Proj xG	Season xG/g		Proj Sh	Season Sh/g	Proj Rtg	Season Rtg	Rec
L102 G1	G	90	0.00	-	n/a		-	6.8	-	0
L102 D1	D	90	0.01	-	n/a	0	-	6.8	-	0
L102 D2	D	90	0.01	-	n/a	0	-	6.8	-	0
L102 D3	D	90	0.01	-	n/a	0	-	6.8	-	0
L102 D4	D	90	0.01	-	n/a	0	-	6.8	-	0
L102 M1	M	90	0.07	-	n/a	1	-	6.9	-	0
L102 M2	M	90	0.07	-	n/a	1	-	6.9	-	0
L102 M3	M	90	0.07	-	n/a	1	-	6.9	-	0
L102 M4	M	90	0.07	-	n/a	1	-	6.9	-	0
L102 F1	F	90	0.12	-	n/a	2	-	6.9	-	0
L102 F2	F	90	0.12	-	n/a	2	-	6.9	-	0
Team totals			0.70			10			6.8

Antagonist / tactical summary

Home midfield dominates with ~55% possession expected (Michael Olise vs L102 M1). Total antagonist xG — Home: 1.07, Away: 0.50. Home danger zone: Shadow Striker vs CB + Mid Cover — Layered Defense. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle.

Midfield — possession 55.0% / 45.0%, dominance ratio 0.66, key duel: Michael Olise vs L102 M1

Désiré Doué xG 0.16Kylian Mbappé xG 0.75Rayan Cherki xG 0.07L102 M1 xG 0.05L102 M2 xG 0.05L102 M3 xG 0.05

Summary

Antagonist matchup analysis for France vs L102. Most likely scoreline: 2-0. Lambdas derived from 5 home and 6 away individual player duels.

Tactical parity between 3-4-2-1 and 4-4-2. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Home midfield dominates with ~55% possession expected (Michael Olise vs L102 M1). Total antagonist xG — Home: 1.07, Away: 0.50. Home danger zone: Shadow Striker vs CB + Mid Cover — Layered Defense. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle.

Generated 2026-09-04 22:27:55 UTC · Soccer prediction reporting