Soccer predictions: actual data vs predicted data
Slate 20260719 · 2 match(es)
How to read this report. Each match shows the model's headline prediction, the stage-by-stage lambda (goal-rate) build, both teams' standing/form inputs, and every starter's projected line next to their real season baseline. A moderate / large deviation badge flags a projection that strays far from the player's season form — a quick way to spot when the inputs look right but a projection does not. When the real result is known an actual-vs-predicted banner appears.
All matches overview
| Match | Score | Winner | H / D / A | O2.5 | BTTS | Conf | λ H/A | Actual | Result |
|---|
| Spain vs Argentina FIFA World Cup | 0-0 | Argentina | 32.2% / 32.3% / 35.4% | 29.1% | 37.2% | 0.68 | 0.96 / 1.02 | - | pending |
| Spain vs W102 World Championship | 2-0 | Spain | 75.1% / 16.2% / 8.7% | 57.9% | 43.8% | 0.84 | 2.47 / 0.70 | - | pending |
Match detail
Spain vs Argentina
FIFA World Cup · 20260719 · 4-2-3-1 vs 4-4-2
Predicted 0-0Winner: ArgentinaConfidence 0.68λ home/away 0.96 / 1.02Most-likely P 15.4%
Actual vs predicted: result not available yet (upcoming fixture).
Lambda decomposition (how the goal rates were built)
| Stage | Spain λ | Argentina λ |
|---|
| Pre-competitive-floor | 0.958 | 0.782 |
| Pre-calibration | 0.958 | 0.782 |
| Final λ | 0.958 | 1.020 |
competition calibration scale 1.0competition observed total goals 0.0quality gap applied Falsemismatch score pressure applied Falsecompetitive underdog floor applied Truestage discount 1.0
Scoreline distribution & markets
| Top 5 scorelines | P |
|---|
| 0-0 | 15.4% |
| 0-1 | 14.6% |
| 1-0 | 13.7% |
| 1-1 | 13.6% |
| 0-2 | 7.2% |
| Home win | 32.2% |
| Draw | 32.3% |
| Away win | 35.4% |
| Over 2.5 | 29.1% |
| BTTS yes | 37.2% |
Pregame fair line — favorite Argentina (35.4%), fair total 1.98, fair spread -0.06
Projected players vs season baseline
Proj = projected for this match · Season = this season's per-game average from match data · deviation badge compares projected xG to the player's season xG/game.
Spain — projected line vs season baseline (4-2-3-1)
| Player | Pos | Min | Proj G | Proj xG | Season xG/g | | Proj Sh | Season Sh/g | Proj Rtg | Season Rtg | Rec |
|---|
| Unai Simón | G | 94 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | | 0.0 | 92.0 | 41.5 | 15 |
| Mikel Oyarzabal | F | 71 | 0 | 0.24 | 0.30 | ok | 2 | 1.8 | 94.5 | 54.8 | 13 |
| Alex Baena | M | 51 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.04 | ok | 2 | 0.9 | 91.2 | 46.3 | 21 |
| Dani Olmo | M | 64 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.07 | 32% | 2 | 0.9 | 92.7 | 50.9 | 19 |
| Lamine Yamal | M | 95 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.25 | 55% | 2 | 2.0 | 96.7 | 45.9 | 18 |
| Fabián Ruiz | M | 52 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 100% | 1 | 0.8 | 92.3 | 59.6 | 13 |
| Rodri | M | 95 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.06 | ok | 2 | 1.0 | 98.1 | 50.5 | 15 |
| Marc Cucurella | D | 95 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.02 | 418% | 0 | 0.2 | 91.5 | 46.3 | 16 |
| Aymeric Laporte | D | 90 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.02 | 289% | 1 | 0.4 | 89.1 | 46.4 | 14 |
| Pau Cubarsí | D | 93 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.01 | 476% | 0 | 0.2 | 90.1 | 43.7 | 18 |
| Pedro Porro | D | 95 | 0 | 0.19 | 0.12 | 69% | 1 | 0.9 | 89.7 | 46.1 | 16 |
| Team totals | 0 | 0.96 | | 13 | | 92.5 | |
Argentina — projected line vs season baseline (4-4-2)
| Player | Pos | Min | Proj G | Proj xG | Season xG/g | | Proj Sh | Season Sh/g | Proj Rtg | Season Rtg | Rec |
|---|
| Lionel Messi | F | 79 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.49 | 49% | 2 | 2.8 | 94.3 | 51.8 | 12 |
| Enzo Fernández | M | 88 | 0 | 0.15 | 0.09 | 69% | 2 | 0.9 | 91.6 | 39.2 | 15 |
| Alexis Mac Allister | M | 92 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.13 | 35% | 2 | 1.2 | 94.4 | 42.6 | 17 |
| Leandro Paredes | M | 70 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.02 | 104% | 1 | 0.6 | 85.2 | 37.9 | 14 |
| Giuliano Simeone | M | 75 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 100% | 1 | 0.4 | 88.0 | 31.2 | 23 |
| Nicolás Tagliafico | D | 76 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 544% | 0 | 0.2 | 84.3 | 29.7 | 13 |
| Lisandro Martínez | D | 95 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.01 | 260% | 0 | 0.2 | 88.6 | 38.2 | 13 |
| Cristian Romero | D | 93 | 0 | 0.16 | 0.03 | 438% | 0 | 0.2 | 89.6 | 32.4 | 13 |
| Nahuel Molina | D | 65 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.01 | 905% | 0 | 0.1 | 85.7 | 41.9 | 14 |
| Emiliano Martínez | G | 91 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | | 0.0 | 91.8 | 48.4 | 20 |
| Julián Alvarez | F | 81 | 0 | 0.15 | 0.25 | 40% | 2 | 1.4 | 94.2 | 44.4 | 18 |
| Team totals | 0 | 1.02 | | 11 | | 89.8 | |
Antagonist / tactical summary
Midfield is evenly contested — Lamine Yamal vs Enzo Fernández will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.64, Away: 0.61. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle.
Midfield — possession 50.6% / 49.4%, dominance ratio 0.52, key duel: Lamine Yamal vs Enzo Fernández
Alex Baena xG 0.05Lamine Yamal xG 0.19Dani Olmo xG 0.05Lionel Messi xG 0.28Enzo Fernández xG 0.20Leandro Paredes xG 0.03
Summary
Antagonist matchup analysis for Spain vs Argentina. Most likely scoreline: 0-0. Lambdas derived from 5 home and 4 away individual player duels.
4-2-3-1 creates structural superiority against 4-4-2. Home team should exploit wider spaces and numerical advantages in transition. Midfield is evenly contested — Lamine Yamal vs Enzo Fernández will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.64, Away: 0.61. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle.
Spain vs W102
World Championship · 20260719 · 4-2-3-1 vs 4-4-2
Predicted 2-0Winner: SpainConfidence 0.84λ home/away 2.47 / 0.70Most-likely P 13.6%
Actual vs predicted: result not available yet (upcoming fixture).
Lambda decomposition (how the goal rates were built)
| Stage | Spain λ | W102 λ |
|---|
| Pre-mismatch | 2.010 | 0.756 |
| Pre-calibration | 2.010 | 0.756 |
| Final λ | 2.472 | 0.696 |
competition calibration scale 1.0competition observed total goals 0.0quality gap applied Truemismatch score pressure applied Truecompetitive underdog floor applied Falsestage discount 1.0
Scoreline distribution & markets
| Top 5 scorelines | P |
|---|
| 2-0 | 13.6% |
| 1-0 | 11.6% |
| 3-0 | 10.7% |
| 2-1 | 9.0% |
| 1-1 | 7.7% |
| Home win | 75.1% |
| Draw | 16.2% |
| Away win | 8.7% |
| Over 2.5 | 57.9% |
| BTTS yes | 43.8% |
Pregame fair line — favorite Spain (75.1%), fair total 3.17, fair spread 1.78
Projected players vs season baseline
Proj = projected for this match · Season = this season's per-game average from match data · deviation badge compares projected xG to the player's season xG/game.
Spain — projected line vs season baseline (4-2-3-1)
| Player | Pos | Min | Proj G | Proj xG | Season xG/g | | Proj Sh | Season Sh/g | Proj Rtg | Season Rtg | Rec |
|---|
| Joan García | G | 95 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | | 0.0 | 90.2 | 19.2 | 18 |
| Pau Cubarsí | D | 93 | 0 | 0.17 | 0.01 | 1621% | 0 | 0.2 | 90.0 | 43.7 | 18 |
| Marc Cucurella | D | 93 | 0 | 0.21 | 0.02 | 843% | 0 | 0.2 | 91.4 | 46.3 | 16 |
| Pedro Porro | D | 95 | 0 | 0.42 | 0.12 | 263% | 1 | 0.9 | 89.9 | 46.1 | 16 |
| Eric García | D | 61 | 0 | 0.14 | 0.00 | 5124% | 0 | 0.1 | 86.7 | 19.3 | 18 |
| Lamine Yamal | M | 93 | 1 | 0.37 | 0.25 | 48% | 2 | 2.0 | 97.1 | 45.9 | 18 |
| Pedri | M | 84 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.01 | 603% | 2 | 0.2 | 96.9 | 51.7 | 18 |
| Martín Zubimendi | M | 78 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 16633% | 1 | 0.1 | 94.5 | 30.3 | 18 |
| Rodri | M | 93 | 0 | 0.13 | 0.06 | 122% | 2 | 1.0 | 98.3 | 50.5 | 15 |
| Dani Olmo | M | 75 | 0 | 0.26 | 0.07 | 297% | 3 | 0.9 | 92.7 | 50.9 | 19 |
| Ferran Torres | F | 61 | 1 | 0.58 | 0.21 | 181% | 3 | 1.4 | 90.1 | 65.5 | 13 |
| Team totals | 2 | 2.47 | | 14 | | 92.5 | |
W102 — projected line vs season baseline (4-4-2)
| Player | Pos | Min | Proj G | Proj xG | Season xG/g | | Proj Sh | Season Sh/g | Proj Rtg | Season Rtg | Rec |
|---|
| W102 G1 | G | 90 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | | - | 6.8 | - | 0 |
| W102 D1 | D | 90 | 0 | 0.01 | - | n/a | 0 | - | 6.8 | - | 0 |
| W102 D2 | D | 90 | 0 | 0.01 | - | n/a | 0 | - | 6.8 | - | 0 |
| W102 D3 | D | 90 | 0 | 0.01 | - | n/a | 0 | - | 6.8 | - | 0 |
| W102 D4 | D | 90 | 0 | 0.01 | - | n/a | 0 | - | 6.8 | - | 0 |
| W102 M1 | M | 90 | 0 | 0.06 | - | n/a | 1 | - | 6.9 | - | 0 |
| W102 M2 | M | 90 | 0 | 0.06 | - | n/a | 1 | - | 6.9 | - | 0 |
| W102 M3 | M | 90 | 0 | 0.06 | - | n/a | 1 | - | 6.9 | - | 0 |
| W102 M4 | M | 90 | 0 | 0.06 | - | n/a | 1 | - | 6.9 | - | 0 |
| W102 F1 | F | 90 | 0 | 0.11 | - | n/a | 2 | - | 6.9 | - | 0 |
| W102 F2 | F | 90 | 0 | 0.17 | - | n/a | 2 | - | 6.9 | - | 0 |
| Team totals | 0 | 0.70 | | 10 | | 6.8 | |
Antagonist / tactical summary
Home midfield dominates with ~55% possession expected (Lamine Yamal vs W102 M1). Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.64, Away: 0.34. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle.
Midfield — possession 54.9% / 45.1%, dominance ratio 0.67, key duel: Lamine Yamal vs W102 M1
Pedri xG 0.05Lamine Yamal xG 0.20Dani Olmo xG 0.13W102 F1 xG 0.15W102 M1 xG 0.07W102 M4 xG 0.07
Summary
Antagonist matchup analysis for Spain vs W102. Most likely scoreline: 2-0. Lambdas derived from 5 home and 4 away individual player duels.
4-2-3-1 creates structural superiority against 4-4-2. Home team should exploit wider spaces and numerical advantages in transition. Home midfield dominates with ~55% possession expected (Lamine Yamal vs W102 M1). Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.64, Away: 0.34. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle.
Generated 2026-09-04 22:27:55 UTC · Soccer prediction reporting