Soccer predictions: actual data vs predicted data

Slate 20260821 · 2 match(es)

How to read this report. Each match shows the model's headline prediction, the stage-by-stage lambda (goal-rate) build, both teams' standing/form inputs, and every starter's projected line next to their real season baseline. A moderate / large deviation badge flags a projection that strays far from the player's season form — a quick way to spot when the inputs look right but a projection does not. When the real result is known an actual-vs-predicted banner appears.

All matches overview

Match	Score	Winner	H / D / A	O2.5	BTTS	Conf	λ H/A	Actual	Result
Arsenal vs Coventry Premier League	3-0	Arsenal	90.9% / 6.3% / 2.8%	82.2%	46.8%	0.94	3.83 / 0.65	-	pending
Real Betis vs Real Sociedad LaLiga	1-1	Draw	33.2% / 29.5% / 37.4%	37.3%	44.2%	0.71	1.05 / 1.13	-	pending

Match detail

Arsenal vs Coventry

Premier League · 20260821 · 4-2-3-1 vs 4-2-3-1

Predicted 3-0Winner: ArsenalConfidence 0.94λ home/away 3.83 / 0.65Most-likely P 10.7%

Actual vs predicted: result not available yet (upcoming fixture).

Standing & form context

Metric	Arsenal	Coventry
League position	2.00	7.00
Points per game	0.00	0.00
Attack index	1.00	1.00
Defense (concede) index	1.00	1.00
Form multiplier	1.00	1.00
Standing λ multiplier	1.00	1.00

Lambda decomposition (how the goal rates were built)

Stage	Arsenal λ	Coventry λ
Pre-mismatch	3.322	0.672
Pre-calibration	3.322	0.672
Final λ	3.825	0.650

competition calibration scale 1.0competition observed total goals 0.0quality gap applied Truemismatch score pressure applied Truecompetitive underdog floor applied Falsestage discount 1.0

Scoreline distribution & markets

Top 5 scorelines	P
3-0	10.7%
4-0	10.2%
2-0	8.4%
5-0	7.8%
3-1	7.0%

Home win	90.9%
Draw	6.3%
Away win	2.8%
Over 2.5	82.2%
BTTS yes	46.8%

Pregame fair line — favorite Arsenal (90.9%), fair total 4.47, fair spread 3.17

Projected players vs season baseline

Proj = projected for this match · Season = this season's per-game average from match data · deviation badge compares projected xG to the player's season xG/game.

Arsenal — projected line vs season baseline (4-2-3-1)

Player	Pos	Min	Proj G	Proj xG	Season xG/g		Proj Sh	Season Sh/g	Proj Rtg	Season Rtg	Rec
Kai Havertz	F	51	1	0.44	0.23	95%	3	1.0	89.4	44.3	16
Christos Tzolis	M	95	2	1.63	0.16	888%	2	1.6	89.3	46.5	8
Martin Ødegaard	M	77	0	0.16	0.12	42%	1	0.8	94.6	39.2	16
Bukayo Saka	F	41	0	0.01	0.16	97%	2	1.2	95.6	45.5	19
Myles Lewis-Skelly	D	10	0	0.00	-	n/a	0	0.0	85.0	22.5	12
Declan Rice	M	95	0	0.00	0.02	100%	1	0.7	95.1	52.2	20
Riccardo Calafiori	D	73	0	0.32	0.02	1551%	1	0.5	85.4	34.8	12
Gabriel Magalhães	D	91	0	0.41	0.04	913%	1	0.4	93.0	59.1	17
Cristhian Mosquera	D	63	0	0.23	0.01	3147%	0	0.1	91.3	34.0	12
Ben White	D	77	0	0.41	0.03	1270%	0	0.2	86.0	33.0	10
David Raya	G	95	0	0.00	-	n/a		0.0	94.6	32.6	18
Team totals			3	3.83			12			90.8

Coventry — projected line vs season baseline (4-2-3-1)

Player	Pos	Min	Proj xG	Season xG/g		Proj Sh	Season Sh/g	Proj Rtg	Season Rtg	Rec
Ellis Simms	F	90	0.16	-	n/a	2	-	76.9	-	3
Loum Tchaouna	F	90	0.21	0.02	1168%	2	0.8	75.9	32.5	6
Frank Onyeka	M	90	0.08	-	n/a	2	-	80.8	-	3
Tatsuhiro Sakamoto	M	90	0.08	-	n/a	1	-	78.7	-	3
Caleb Yirenkyi	M	70	0.00	0.14	100%	1	0.3	73.8	38.4	7
Matt Grimes	M	90	0.08	-	n/a	1	-	80.7	-	3
Jay DaSilva	D	90	0.00	-	n/a	0	-	76.1	-	4
Bobby Thomas	D	90	0.00	-	n/a		-	77.9	-	3
Aurèle Amenda	D	91	0.00	-	n/a	0	0.0	77.5	10.7	18
Milan van Ewijk	D	90	0.00	-	n/a		-	81.0	-	3
Carl Rushworth	G	90	0.00	-	n/a		-	79.0	-	3
Team totals			0.65			9			78.0

Antagonist / tactical summary

Home midfield dominates with ~53% possession expected (Declan Rice vs Caleb Yirenkyi). Total antagonist xG — Home: 1.30, Away: 0.35. Home danger zone: Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle. Away danger zone: Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle.

Midfield — possession 53.3% / 46.7%, dominance ratio 0.62, key duel: Declan Rice vs Caleb Yirenkyi

Christos Tzolis xG 0.83Bukayo Saka xG 0.00Myles Lewis-Skelly xG 0.22Tatsuhiro Sakamoto xG 0.04Loum Tchaouna xG 0.13Frank Onyeka xG 0.03

Summary

Antagonist matchup analysis for Arsenal vs Coventry. Most likely scoreline: 3-0. Lambdas derived from 5 home and 5 away individual player duels.

Tactical parity between 4-2-3-1 and 4-2-3-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Home midfield dominates with ~53% possession expected (Declan Rice vs Caleb Yirenkyi). Total antagonist xG — Home: 1.30, Away: 0.35. Home danger zone: Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle. Away danger zone: Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle.

Real Betis vs Real Sociedad

LaLiga · 20260821 · 4-2-3-1 vs 4-2-3-1

Predicted 1-1Winner: DrawConfidence 0.71λ home/away 1.05 / 1.13Most-likely P 13.5%

Actual vs predicted: result not available yet (upcoming fixture).

Standing & form context

Metric	Real Betis	Real Sociedad
League position	14.00	16.00
Points per game	0.00	0.00
Attack index	1.00	1.00
Defense (concede) index	1.00	1.00
Form multiplier	1.00	1.00
Standing λ multiplier	1.00	1.00

Lambda decomposition (how the goal rates were built)

Stage	Real Betis λ	Real Sociedad λ
Pre-competitive-floor	1.050	1.133
Pre-calibration	1.050	1.133
Final λ	1.050	1.133

competition calibration scale 1.0competition observed total goals 0.0quality gap applied Falsemismatch score pressure applied Falsecompetitive underdog floor applied Falsestage discount 1.0

Scoreline distribution & markets

Top 5 scorelines	P
1-1	13.5%
0-1	12.6%
1-0	11.7%
0-0	11.4%
1-2	7.6%

Home win	33.2%
Draw	29.5%
Away win	37.4%
Over 2.5	37.3%
BTTS yes	44.2%

Pregame fair line — favorite Real Sociedad (37.4%), fair total 2.18, fair spread -0.08

Projected players vs season baseline

Proj = projected for this match · Season = this season's per-game average from match data · deviation badge compares projected xG to the player's season xG/game.

Real Betis — projected line vs season baseline (4-2-3-1)

Player	Pos	Min	Proj G	Proj xG	Season xG/g		Proj Sh	Season Sh/g	Proj Rtg	Season Rtg	Rec
Cucho Hernández	F	77	0	0.33	0.26	ok	2	1.7	86.9	34.8	14
Rodrigo Riquelme	M	12	0	0.00	0.00	100%	1	0.1	82.3	23.7	11
Pablo Fornals	M	73	0	0.17	0.04	273%	2	0.7	86.0	39.6	11
Marc Roca	M	55	0	0.00	0.01	100%	2	0.4	84.6	31.0	11
Facundo Bernal	M	48	0	0.00	0.00	100%	0	0.2	82.7	20.5	13
Fran García	D	59	0	0.00	-	n/a	0	0.0	85.6	21.8	12
Natan	D	74	0	0.00	-	n/a	0	0.0	85.0	41.0	10
Marc Bartra	D	68	0	0.12	0.01	1153%	0	0.2	85.6	33.5	8
Héctor Bellerín	D	86	0	0.06	0.00	1566%	0	0.1	80.1	28.7	11
Álvaro Valles	G	89	0	0.00	-	n/a		0.0	85.6	11.9	11
Antony	M	95	1	0.20	0.19	ok	2	2.1	88.7	46.8	11
Team totals			1	1.05			12			84.8

Real Sociedad — projected line vs season baseline (4-2-3-1)

Player	Pos	Min	Proj G	Proj xG	Season xG/g		Proj Sh	Season Sh/g	Proj Rtg	Season Rtg	Rec
Yangel Herrera	M	83	0	0.04	-	n/a	2	0.0	87.8	23.5	6
Luka Sučić	M	58	0	0.05	0.05	ok	1	0.5	84.5	26.3	10
Sergio Gómez	D	81	0	0.00	0.02	100%	0	0.2	86.1	35.0	6
Jon Martin	D	95	0	0.08	0.01	591%	1	0.2	74.8	23.0	6
Igor Zubeldia	D	63	0	0.00	-	n/a	0	0.0	85.7	33.2	6
Jon Aramburu	D	80	0	0.02	0.00	390%	1	0.2	83.9	33.0	6
Álex Remiro	G	90	0	0.00	-	n/a		0.0	89.6	26.2	5
Takefusa Kubo	M	59	0	0.06	0.01	953%	2	0.2	88.4	11.8	11
Carlos Soler	M	61	0	0.00	0.04	100%	2	0.2	83.6	32.2	6
Ander Barrenetxea	M	35	0	0.15	0.04	261%	1	0.2	85.0	16.8	4
Orri Óskarsson	F	81	1	0.57	0.29	93%	2	1.4	82.2	31.8	5
Team totals			1	1.13			14			84.7

Antagonist / tactical summary

Midfield is evenly contested — Antony vs Takefusa Kubo will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.69, Away: 0.92. Home danger zone: Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle.

Midfield — possession 49.5% / 50.5%, dominance ratio 0.49, key duel: Antony vs Takefusa Kubo

Pablo Fornals xG 0.11Marc Roca xG 0.21Antony xG 0.10Carlos Soler xG 0.23Yangel Herrera xG 0.05Takefusa Kubo xG 0.04

Summary

Antagonist matchup analysis for Real Betis vs Real Sociedad. Most likely scoreline: 1-1. Lambdas derived from 5 home and 5 away individual player duels.

Tactical parity between 4-2-3-1 and 4-2-3-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Midfield is evenly contested — Antony vs Takefusa Kubo will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.69, Away: 0.92. Home danger zone: Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle.

Generated 2026-09-04 22:27:55 UTC · Soccer prediction reporting