Soccer predictions: actual data vs predicted data
Slate 20260822 · 8 match(es)
How to read this report. Each match shows the model's headline prediction, the stage-by-stage lambda (goal-rate) build, both teams' standing/form inputs, and every starter's projected line next to their real season baseline. A moderate / large deviation badge flags a projection that strays far from the player's season form — a quick way to spot when the inputs look right but a projection does not. When the real result is known an actual-vs-predicted banner appears.
All matches overview
Match detail
Valencia vs Celta
LaLiga · 20260822 · 3-5-2 vs 3-4-2-1
Predicted 0-0Winner: DrawConfidence 0.69λ home/away 0.94 / 1.02Most-likely P 14.2%
Actual vs predicted: result not available yet (upcoming fixture).
Standing & form context
| Metric | Valencia | Celta |
|---|
| League position | 17.00 | 13.00 |
| Points per game | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Attack index | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Defense (concede) index | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Form multiplier | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Standing λ multiplier | 1.00 | 1.00 |
Lambda decomposition (how the goal rates were built)
| Stage | Valencia λ | Celta λ |
|---|
| Pre-competitive-floor | 0.941 | 0.804 |
| Pre-calibration | 0.941 | 0.804 |
| Final λ | 0.941 | 1.020 |
competition calibration scale 1.0competition observed total goals 0.0quality gap applied Falsemismatch score pressure applied Falsecompetitive underdog floor applied Truestage discount 1.0
Scoreline distribution & markets
| Top 5 scorelines | P |
|---|
| 0-0 | 14.2% |
| 0-1 | 14.2% |
| 1-1 | 13.7% |
| 1-0 | 13.1% |
| 0-2 | 7.3% |
| Home win | 32.2% |
| Draw | 31.5% |
| Away win | 36.3% |
| Over 2.5 | 31.3% |
| BTTS yes | 39.1% |
Pregame fair line — favorite Celta (36.3%), fair total 1.96, fair spread -0.08
Projected players vs season baseline
Proj = projected for this match · Season = this season's per-game average from match data · deviation badge compares projected xG to the player's season xG/game.
Valencia — projected line vs season baseline (3-5-2)
| Player | Pos | Min | Proj G | Proj xG | Season xG/g | | Proj Sh | Season Sh/g | Proj Rtg | Season Rtg | Rec |
|---|
| Stole Dimitrievski | G | 88 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | | 0.0 | 85.5 | 19.1 | 14 |
| Hugo Duro | F | 72 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.08 | 89% | 2 | 0.3 | 84.4 | 27.1 | 7 |
| José Luis Gayà | D | 62 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | 0 | 0.0 | 85.9 | 14.2 | 5 |
| Filip Ugrinić | M | 63 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 100% | 2 | 0.3 | 81.7 | 28.4 | 7 |
| Guido Rodríguez | M | 70 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 100% | 1 | 0.4 | 84.1 | 33.3 | 7 |
| Javier Guerra | M | 90 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.22 | 51% | 2 | 1.6 | 67.2 | 34.7 | 7 |
| Jesús Vázquez | D | 65 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | 0 | 0.0 | 76.6 | 29.3 | 7 |
| Justin De Haas | D | 90 | 0 | 0.50 | 0.04 | 1284% | 1 | 0.3 | 80.2 | 32.3 | 7 |
| Pepelu | M | 38 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 100% | 1 | 0.1 | 83.6 | 28.7 | 7 |
| César Tárrega | D | 90 | 0 | 0.18 | 0.03 | 597% | 1 | 0.3 | 81.1 | 27.0 | 7 |
| Ryunosuke Sato | M | 90 | 0 | 0.10 | - | n/a | 1 | 1.4 | 88.7 | 29.1 | 8 |
| Team totals | 0 | 0.94 | | 12 | | 81.7 | |
Celta — projected line vs season baseline (3-4-2-1)
| Player | Pos | Min | Proj G | Proj xG | Season xG/g | | Proj Sh | Season Sh/g | Proj Rtg | Season Rtg | Rec |
|---|
| Williot Swedberg | M | 36 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 100% | 2 | 0.5 | 81.2 | 44.2 | 11 |
| Hugo González | M | 90 | 0 | 0.25 | - | n/a | 2 | - | 82.7 | - | 3 |
| Sergio Carreira | M | 91 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 100% | 2 | 0.5 | 85.0 | 47.4 | 10 |
| Aleix Febas | M | 86 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 100% | 1 | 0.2 | 78.7 | 27.2 | 5 |
| Miguel Román | M | 90 | 0 | 0.26 | - | n/a | 3 | - | 88.9 | - | 3 |
| Javier Rueda | M | 58 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.11 | 100% | 1 | 0.3 | 84.8 | 46.0 | 9 |
| Marcos Alonso | D | 88 | 0 | 0.20 | 0.02 | 990% | 1 | 0.5 | 85.8 | 48.6 | 10 |
| Carl Starfelt | D | 62 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | 0 | 0.1 | 84.5 | 28.1 | 12 |
| Javi Rodríguez | D | 86 | 0 | 0.16 | 0.01 | 1655% | 0 | 0.3 | 82.9 | 46.7 | 10 |
| Ferran Jutglà | F | 52 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.21 | 80% | 2 | 1.0 | 88.1 | 48.6 | 10 |
| Ionuț Radu | G | 90 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | | 0.0 | 80.7 | 44.9 | 12 |
| Team totals | 0 | 1.02 | | 14 | | 83.9 | |
Antagonist / tactical summary
Midfield is evenly contested — Javier Guerra vs Williot Swedberg will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.49, Away: 0.51. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel.
Midfield — possession 49.5% / 50.5%, dominance ratio 0.48, key duel: Javier Guerra vs Williot Swedberg
Pepelu xG 0.08Javier Guerra xG 0.06Filip Ugrinić xG 0.10Aleix Febas xG 0.08Williot Swedberg xG 0.15Sergio Carreira xG 0.12
Summary
Antagonist matchup analysis for Valencia vs Celta. Most likely scoreline: 0-0. Lambdas derived from 6 home and 7 away individual player duels.
Tactical parity between 3-5-2 and 3-4-2-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Midfield is evenly contested — Javier Guerra vs Williot Swedberg will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.49, Away: 0.51. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel.
Everton vs Crystal Palace
Premier League · 20260822 · 4-2-3-1 vs 3-4-2-1
Predicted 1-1Winner: DrawConfidence 0.7λ home/away 1.15 / 1.02Most-likely P 13.5%
Actual vs predicted: result not available yet (upcoming fixture).
Standing & form context
| Metric | Everton | Crystal Palace |
|---|
| League position | 9.00 | 8.00 |
| Points per game | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Attack index | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Defense (concede) index | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Form multiplier | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Standing λ multiplier | 1.00 | 1.00 |
Lambda decomposition (how the goal rates were built)
| Stage | Everton λ | Crystal Palace λ |
|---|
| Pre-competitive-floor | 1.151 | 0.844 |
| Pre-calibration | 1.151 | 0.844 |
| Final λ | 1.151 | 1.020 |
competition calibration scale 1.0competition observed total goals 0.0quality gap applied Falsemismatch score pressure applied Falsecompetitive underdog floor applied Truestage discount 1.0
Scoreline distribution & markets
| Top 5 scorelines | P |
|---|
| 1-1 | 13.5% |
| 1-0 | 13.0% |
| 0-0 | 11.5% |
| 0-1 | 11.5% |
| 2-1 | 7.7% |
| Home win | 38.6% |
| Draw | 29.5% |
| Away win | 31.9% |
| Over 2.5 | 37.0% |
| BTTS yes | 43.8% |
Pregame fair line — favorite Everton (38.6%), fair total 2.17, fair spread 0.13
Projected players vs season baseline
Proj = projected for this match · Season = this season's per-game average from match data · deviation badge compares projected xG to the player's season xG/game.
Everton — projected line vs season baseline (4-2-3-1)
| Player | Pos | Min | Proj G | Proj xG | Season xG/g | | Proj Sh | Season Sh/g | Proj Rtg | Season Rtg | Rec |
|---|
| Thierno Barry | F | 43 | 0 | 0.31 | 0.00 | 6840% | 2 | 0.2 | 83.8 | 32.0 | 6 |
| Iliman Ndiaye | M | 95 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.05 | 48% | 2 | 0.5 | 86.1 | 26.6 | 13 |
| Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall | M | 95 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.08 | ok | 2 | 0.5 | 84.2 | 33.5 | 6 |
| Merlin Röhl | M | 78 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 100% | 1 | 0.5 | 80.8 | 33.5 | 6 |
| Harrison Armstrong | M | 28 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | 2 | 0.0 | 73.6 | 11.0 | 6 |
| Hayden Hackney | M | 90 | 0 | 0.05 | - | n/a | 2 | - | 80.3 | - | 3 |
| Vitaliy Mykolenko | D | 95 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | 0 | 0.0 | 84.7 | 31.9 | 8 |
| Jarrad Branthwaite | D | 90 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | | - | 86.3 | - | 3 |
| James Tarkowski | D | 89 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.05 | 92% | 2 | 0.8 | 86.9 | 35.2 | 6 |
| Jake O'Brien | D | 82 | 0 | 0.54 | 0.08 | 575% | 1 | 0.3 | 82.2 | 25.9 | 7 |
| Jordan Pickford | G | 92 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | | 0.0 | 90.6 | 42.9 | 14 |
| Team totals | 1 | 1.15 | | 14 | | 83.6 | |
Crystal Palace — projected line vs season baseline (3-4-2-1)
| Player | Pos | Min | Proj G | Proj xG | Season xG/g | | Proj Sh | Season Sh/g | Proj Rtg | Season Rtg | Rec |
|---|
| Jørgen Strand Larsen | F | 59 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.11 | ok | 2 | 0.6 | 84.9 | 21.6 | 14 |
| Dwight McNeil | M | 90 | 0 | 0.03 | - | n/a | 2 | 0.0 | 85.0 | 10.8 | 6 |
| Ismaïla Sarr | F | 73 | 1 | 0.28 | 0.30 | ok | 3 | 1.6 | 86.7 | 37.9 | 13 |
| Tyrick Mitchell | M | 94 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.07 | ok | 2 | 0.7 | 85.7 | 39.7 | 7 |
| Daichi Kamada | M | 72 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 100% | 1 | 0.5 | 83.8 | 45.8 | 12 |
| Adam Wharton | M | 63 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.03 | 219% | 2 | 0.9 | 86.8 | 41.3 | 7 |
| Óscar Mingueza | M | 79 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 100% | 1 | 0.1 | 87.0 | 36.7 | 9 |
| Chadi Riad | D | 90 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.02 | 192% | 1 | 0.2 | 79.1 | 25.5 | 13 |
| Chris Richards | D | 88 | 0 | 0.16 | 0.06 | 174% | 1 | 0.5 | 84.1 | 42.7 | 11 |
| Jaydee Canvot | D | 95 | 0 | 0.22 | 0.04 | 389% | 1 | 0.3 | 76.7 | 27.4 | 7 |
| Dean Henderson | G | 95 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | | 0.0 | 87.8 | 22.6 | 15 |
| Team totals | 1 | 1.02 | | 16 | | 84.3 | |
Antagonist / tactical summary
Midfield is evenly contested — Iliman Ndiaye vs Adam Wharton will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.66, Away: 0.51. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle.
Midfield — possession 49.9% / 50.1%, dominance ratio 0.51, key duel: Iliman Ndiaye vs Adam Wharton
Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall xG 0.07Hayden Hackney xG 0.05Harrison Armstrong xG 0.21Dwight McNeil xG 0.03Jørgen Strand Larsen xG 0.17Daichi Kamada xG 0.08
Summary
Antagonist matchup analysis for Everton vs Crystal Palace. Most likely scoreline: 1-1. Lambdas derived from 4 home and 5 away individual player duels.
Tactical parity between 4-2-3-1 and 3-4-2-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Midfield is evenly contested — Iliman Ndiaye vs Adam Wharton will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.66, Away: 0.51. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle.
Forest vs Leeds
Premier League · 20260822 · 3-4-2-1 vs 3-4-2-1
Predicted 1-1Winner: DrawConfidence 0.76λ home/away 1.76 / 1.11Most-likely P 11.1%
Actual vs predicted: result not available yet (upcoming fixture).
Standing & form context
| Metric | Forest | Leeds |
|---|
| League position | 18.00 | 13.00 |
| Points per game | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Attack index | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Defense (concede) index | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Form multiplier | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Standing λ multiplier | 1.00 | 1.00 |
Lambda decomposition (how the goal rates were built)
| Stage | Forest λ | Leeds λ |
|---|
| Pre-competitive-floor | 1.765 | 1.107 |
| Pre-calibration | 1.765 | 1.107 |
| Final λ | 1.765 | 1.107 |
competition calibration scale 1.0competition observed total goals 0.0quality gap applied Truemismatch score pressure applied Falsecompetitive underdog floor applied Falsestage discount 1.0
Scoreline distribution & markets
| Top 5 scorelines | P |
|---|
| 1-1 | 11.1% |
| 1-0 | 9.9% |
| 2-1 | 9.8% |
| 2-0 | 8.8% |
| 0-1 | 6.2% |
| Home win | 52.7% |
| Draw | 23.6% |
| Away win | 23.7% |
| Over 2.5 | 54.8% |
| BTTS yes | 55.5% |
Pregame fair line — favorite Forest (52.7%), fair total 2.87, fair spread 0.66
Projected players vs season baseline
Proj = projected for this match · Season = this season's per-game average from match data · deviation badge compares projected xG to the player's season xG/game.
Forest — projected line vs season baseline (3-4-2-1)
| Player | Pos | Min | Proj G | Proj xG | Season xG/g | | Proj Sh | Season Sh/g | Proj Rtg | Season Rtg | Rec |
|---|
| Dan Ndoye | M | 86 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 100% | 2 | 0.6 | 86.3 | 18.2 | 23 |
| Morgan Gibbs-White | M | 82 | 1 | 0.81 | 0.19 | 340% | 2 | 1.4 | 89.6 | 45.0 | 11 |
| Neco Williams | D | 82 | 0 | 0.22 | 0.03 | 608% | 1 | 0.7 | 85.2 | 47.4 | 13 |
| Xaver Schlager | M | 70 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 100% | 1 | 0.3 | 86.7 | 36.6 | 11 |
| Ibrahim Sangaré | M | 55 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 100% | 1 | 0.1 | 84.4 | 50.9 | 14 |
| Ola Aina | D | 72 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 100% | 0 | 0.2 | 87.3 | 35.2 | 8 |
| Nikola Milenković | D | 79 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 2601% | 0 | 0.1 | 90.2 | 44.9 | 12 |
| Murillo | D | 55 | 0 | 0.23 | 0.02 | 923% | 1 | 0.4 | 90.1 | 32.6 | 8 |
| Ousmane Diomande | D | 83 | 0 | 0.13 | 0.01 | 1672% | 0 | 0.2 | 87.4 | 30.7 | 13 |
| Matz Sels | G | 89 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | | 0.0 | 89.4 | 23.9 | 11 |
| Igor Jesus | F | 78 | 0 | 0.33 | 0.19 | 71% | 2 | 1.9 | 84.0 | 49.2 | 12 |
| Team totals | 1 | 1.76 | | 10 | | 87.3 | |
Leeds — projected line vs season baseline (3-4-2-1)
| Player | Pos | Min | Proj G | Proj xG | Season xG/g | | Proj Sh | Season Sh/g | Proj Rtg | Season Rtg | Rec |
|---|
| James Trafford | G | 95 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | | 0.0 | 82.8 | 3.8 | 17 |
| Jaka Bijol | D | 88 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | 0 | 0.0 | 84.3 | 17.8 | 12 |
| Joe Rodon | D | 91 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.01 | 828% | 1 | 0.1 | 82.9 | 28.9 | 7 |
| Dominic Calvert-Lewin | F | 87 | 1 | 0.43 | 0.23 | 89% | 2 | 0.8 | 81.3 | 34.3 | 6 |
| Harry Wilson | M | 66 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.02 | 241% | 1 | 0.7 | 83.5 | 28.9 | 7 |
| Brenden Aaronson | M | 51 | 0 | 0.13 | 0.07 | 87% | 1 | 0.6 | 80.9 | 21.8 | 12 |
| James Justin | D | 90 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 100% | | 0.5 | 80.8 | 34.7 | 6 |
| Ethan Ampadu | M | 95 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | 2 | 0.0 | 83.5 | 31.6 | 7 |
| Anton Stach | M | 87 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.02 | 253% | 2 | 0.4 | 86.3 | 27.4 | 5 |
| Jayden Bogle | D | 90 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 100% | | 0.2 | 81.9 | 17.8 | 4 |
| Tarik Muharemović | D | 95 | 0 | 0.29 | 0.04 | 701% | 0 | 0.2 | 77.4 | 30.3 | 11 |
| Team totals | 1 | 1.11 | | 9 | | 82.3 | |
Antagonist / tactical summary
Midfield is evenly contested — Morgan Gibbs-White vs Ethan Ampadu will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 1.18, Away: 1.14. Home danger zone: Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest. Away danger zone: Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat.
Midfield — possession 49.4% / 50.6%, dominance ratio 0.50, key duel: Morgan Gibbs-White vs Ethan Ampadu
Xaver Schlager xG 0.07Morgan Gibbs-White xG 0.37Dan Ndoye xG 0.15Harry Wilson xG 0.06Ethan Ampadu xG 0.13Anton Stach xG 0.05
Summary
Antagonist matchup analysis for Forest vs Leeds. Most likely scoreline: 1-1. Lambdas derived from 7 home and 7 away individual player duels.
Tactical parity between 3-4-2-1 and 3-4-2-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Midfield is evenly contested — Morgan Gibbs-White vs Ethan Ampadu will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 1.18, Away: 1.14. Home danger zone: Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest. Away danger zone: Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat.
Hull vs Man Utd
Premier League · 20260822 · 4-2-3-1 vs 4-2-3-1
Predicted 0-3Winner: Man UtdConfidence 0.93λ home/away 0.66 / 3.75Most-likely P 10.8%
Actual vs predicted: result not available yet (upcoming fixture).
Standing & form context
| Metric | Hull | Man Utd |
|---|
| League position | 11.00 | 16.00 |
| Points per game | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Attack index | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Defense (concede) index | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Form multiplier | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Standing λ multiplier | 1.00 | 1.00 |
Lambda decomposition (how the goal rates were built)
| Stage | Hull λ | Man Utd λ |
|---|
| Pre-mismatch | 0.689 | 3.266 |
| Pre-calibration | 0.689 | 3.267 |
| Final λ | 0.656 | 3.751 |
competition calibration scale 1.0competition observed total goals 0.0quality gap applied Truemismatch score pressure applied Truecompetitive underdog floor applied Falsestage discount 1.0
Scoreline distribution & markets
| Top 5 scorelines | P |
|---|
| 0-3 | 10.8% |
| 0-4 | 10.1% |
| 0-2 | 8.6% |
| 0-5 | 7.6% |
| 1-3 | 7.1% |
| Home win | 3.0% |
| Draw | 6.7% |
| Away win | 90.3% |
| Over 2.5 | 81.5% |
| BTTS yes | 47.0% |
Pregame fair line — favorite Man Utd (90.3%), fair total 4.41, fair spread -3.10
Projected players vs season baseline
Proj = projected for this match · Season = this season's per-game average from match data · deviation badge compares projected xG to the player's season xG/game.
Hull — projected line vs season baseline (4-2-3-1)
| Player | Pos | Min | Proj G | Proj xG | Season xG/g | | Proj Sh | Season Sh/g | Proj Rtg | Season Rtg | Rec |
|---|
| Regan Slater | M | 90 | 0 | 0.09 | - | n/a | 2 | - | 76.7 | - | 3 |
| Matt Crooks | M | 90 | 0 | 0.09 | - | n/a | 2 | - | 75.7 | - | 3 |
| Ryan Giles | D | 90 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | | - | 77.8 | - | 3 |
| John Egan | D | 90 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | | - | 78.6 | - | 3 |
| Semi Ajayi | D | 90 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | | - | 76.6 | - | 3 |
| Lewie Coyle | D | 90 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | | - | 76.6 | - | 3 |
| Konstantinos Tzolakis | G | 93 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | | 0.0 | 86.2 | 36.0 | 8 |
| Jens Hjertø-Dahl | M | 90 | 0 | 0.09 | - | n/a | 2 | - | 70.8 | - | 3 |
| Mohamed Belloumi | M | 90 | 0 | 0.09 | - | n/a | 1 | - | 79.7 | - | 3 |
| Oli McBurnie | F | 90 | 0 | 0.18 | - | n/a | 2 | - | 80.7 | - | 3 |
| Elliot Stroud | M | 42 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 100% | 0 | 0.1 | 77.6 | 22.1 | 9 |
| Team totals | 0 | 0.66 | | 10 | | 77.9 | |
Man Utd — projected line vs season baseline (4-2-3-1)
| Player | Pos | Min | Proj G | Proj xG | Season xG/g | | Proj Sh | Season Sh/g | Proj Rtg | Season Rtg | Rec |
|---|
| Bryan Mbeumo | F | 63 | 2 | 2.02 | 0.59 | 245% | 3 | 1.3 | 92.7 | 33.0 | 6 |
| Bruno Fernandes | M | 93 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.11 | ok | 2 | 1.4 | 94.8 | 51.2 | 12 |
| Amad Diallo | M | 82 | 0 | 0.40 | 0.13 | 209% | 1 | 1.2 | 86.3 | 46.9 | 11 |
| Andrey Santos | M | 63 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 100% | 0 | 0.1 | 87.3 | 21.3 | 7 |
| Youri Tielemans | M | 87 | 0 | 0.12 | 0.05 | 151% | 2 | 0.9 | 92.9 | 48.8 | 18 |
| Luke Shaw | D | 87 | 0 | 0.13 | 0.02 | 547% | 1 | 0.3 | 85.7 | 35.2 | 6 |
| Harry Maguire | D | 90 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.01 | 1319% | 0 | 0.2 | 87.0 | 35.2 | 6 |
| Leny Yoro | D | 17 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | 0 | 0.0 | 85.5 | 11.5 | 6 |
| Diogo Dalot | D | 54 | 0 | 0.39 | 0.03 | 1197% | 1 | 0.2 | 86.1 | 18.7 | 11 |
| Senne Lammens | G | 82 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | | 0.0 | 85.4 | 22.8 | 13 |
| Matheus Cunha | F | 56 | 1 | 0.37 | 0.19 | 95% | 2 | 1.8 | 90.8 | 47.2 | 11 |
| Team totals | 3 | 3.75 | | 13 | | 88.6 | |
Antagonist / tactical summary
Away midfield dictates play with ~54% possession expected (Jens Hjertø-Dahl vs Amad Diallo). Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.27, Away: 1.42. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle.
Midfield — possession 45.8% / 54.2%, dominance ratio 0.40, key duel: Jens Hjertø-Dahl vs Amad Diallo
Regan Slater xG 0.04Matt Crooks xG 0.05Jens Hjertø-Dahl xG 0.03Bruno Fernandes xG 0.06Matheus Cunha xG 0.17Youri Tielemans xG 0.05
Summary
Antagonist matchup analysis for Hull vs Man Utd. Most likely scoreline: 0-3. Lambdas derived from 5 home and 5 away individual player duels.
Tactical parity between 4-2-3-1 and 4-2-3-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Away midfield dictates play with ~54% possession expected (Jens Hjertø-Dahl vs Amad Diallo). Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.27, Away: 1.42. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle.
Espanyol vs Real Madrid
LaLiga · 20260822 · 4-2-3-1 vs 4-2-3-1
Predicted 0-3Winner: Real MadridConfidence 0.91λ home/away 0.68 / 3.36Most-likely P 11.2%
Actual vs predicted: result not available yet (upcoming fixture).
Standing & form context
| Metric | Espanyol | Real Madrid |
|---|
| League position | 2.00 | 15.00 |
| Points per game | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| Attack index | 1.25 | 1.00 |
| Defense (concede) index | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Form multiplier | 1.06 | 0.94 |
| Standing λ multiplier | 1.11 | 0.99 |
Lambda decomposition (how the goal rates were built)
| Stage | Espanyol λ | Real Madrid λ |
|---|
| Pre-mismatch | 0.723 | 2.839 |
| Pre-calibration | 0.723 | 2.839 |
| Final λ | 0.678 | 3.362 |
competition calibration scale 1.0competition observed total goals 0.0quality gap applied Truemismatch score pressure applied Truecompetitive underdog floor applied Falsestage discount 1.0
Scoreline distribution & markets
| Top 5 scorelines | P |
|---|
| 0-3 | 11.2% |
| 0-2 | 10.0% |
| 0-4 | 9.4% |
| 1-3 | 7.6% |
| 1-2 | 6.8% |
| Home win | 4.2% |
| Draw | 8.8% |
| Away win | 87.1% |
| Over 2.5 | 76.7% |
| BTTS yes | 47.5% |
Pregame fair line — favorite Real Madrid (87.1%), fair total 4.04, fair spread -2.68
Projected players vs season baseline
Proj = projected for this match · Season = this season's per-game average from match data · deviation badge compares projected xG to the player's season xG/game.
Espanyol — projected line vs season baseline (4-2-3-1)
| Player | Pos | Min | Proj G | Proj xG | Season xG/g | | Proj Sh | Season Sh/g | Proj Rtg | Season Rtg | Rec |
|---|
| Marko Dmitrović | G | 88 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | | 0.0 | 86.5 | 38.8 | 6 |
| Clemens Riedel | D | 89 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | 0 | 0.0 | 75.8 | 34.8 | 6 |
| Omar El Hilali | D | 72 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | 0 | 0.0 | 84.0 | 45.8 | 6 |
| Roberto Fernández | F | 67 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.29 | 67% | 2 | 1.0 | 77.1 | 48.3 | 6 |
| Tyrhys Dolan | M | 79 | 0 | 0.17 | 0.07 | 140% | 2 | 1.2 | 76.3 | 43.2 | 5 |
| Javier Hernández | M | 80 | 0 | 0.13 | 0.06 | 113% | 2 | 0.7 | 88.9 | 24.3 | 3 |
| Álex Calatrava | M | 71 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.06 | 76% | 2 | 0.7 | 77.6 | 24.0 | 3 |
| Edu Expósito | M | 87 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.06 | 39% | 1 | 1.3 | 82.1 | 46.2 | 6 |
| Urko González | M | 86 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 100% | 1 | 0.3 | 79.0 | 47.2 | 6 |
| Roger Hinojo | D | 88 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | 0 | 0.0 | 7.3 | 25.0 | 3 |
| Unai Núñez | D | 79 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.03 | 189% | 1 | 0.7 | 82.9 | 45.3 | 6 |
| Team totals | 0 | 0.68 | | 12 | | 74.3 | |
Real Madrid — projected line vs season baseline (4-2-3-1)
| Player | Pos | Min | Proj G | Proj xG | Season xG/g | | Proj Sh | Season Sh/g | Proj Rtg | Season Rtg | Rec |
|---|
| Kylian Mbappé | F | 88 | 1 | 1.47 | 0.55 | 168% | 3 | 3.5 | 99.1 | 57.6 | 19 |
| Vinícius Júnior | F | 95 | 1 | 0.82 | 0.55 | 49% | 4 | 2.6 | 94.0 | 53.7 | 17 |
| Arda Güler | M | 83 | 1 | 0.17 | 0.10 | 59% | 2 | 1.4 | 88.7 | 48.0 | 17 |
| Brahim Díaz | M | 67 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.09 | ok | 2 | 0.8 | 85.3 | 46.6 | 18 |
| Bernardo Silva | M | 50 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 100% | 1 | 0.5 | 90.8 | 39.9 | 16 |
| Federico Valverde | M | 94 | 0 | 0.17 | 0.18 | ok | 2 | 1.5 | 96.5 | 50.0 | 13 |
| Marc Cucurella | D | 95 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.02 | 1023% | 0 | 0.2 | 91.5 | 46.3 | 16 |
| Dean Huijsen | D | 78 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | 0 | 0.0 | 89.6 | 34.6 | 10 |
| Ibrahima Konaté | D | 82 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.03 | 856% | 1 | 0.3 | 93.2 | 28.1 | 19 |
| Thibaut Courtois | G | 86 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | | 0.0 | 96.0 | 46.9 | 17 |
| Denzel Dumfries | M | 90 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.03 | 264% | 2 | 0.3 | 91.2 | 20.2 | 14 |
| Team totals | 3 | 3.36 | | 17 | | 92.4 | |
Antagonist / tactical summary
Away midfield dictates play with ~53% possession expected (Urko González vs Arda Güler). Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.87, Away: 1.09. Home danger zone: Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle.
Midfield — possession 46.9% / 53.1%, dominance ratio 0.39, key duel: Urko González vs Arda Güler
Tyrhys Dolan xG 0.27Álex Calatrava xG 0.17Javier Hernández xG 0.17Arda Güler xG 0.12Brahim Díaz xG 0.06Denzel Dumfries xG 0.05
Summary
Antagonist matchup analysis for Espanyol vs Real Madrid. Most likely scoreline: 0-3. Lambdas derived from 5 home and 5 away individual player duels.
Tactical parity between 4-2-3-1 and 4-2-3-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Away midfield dictates play with ~53% possession expected (Urko González vs Arda Güler). Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.87, Away: 1.09. Home danger zone: Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle.
Athletic Club vs Sevilla
LaLiga · 20260822 · 4-2-3-1 vs 4-2-3-1
Predicted 0-1Winner: SevillaConfidence 0.67λ home/away 0.82 / 1.02Most-likely P 16.1%
Actual vs predicted: result not available yet (upcoming fixture).
Standing & form context
| Metric | Athletic Club | Sevilla |
|---|
| League position | 10.00 | 4.00 |
| Points per game | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| Attack index | 1.00 | 0.84 |
| Defense (concede) index | 0.42 | 1.00 |
| Form multiplier | 0.94 | 1.06 |
| Standing λ multiplier | 0.71 | 0.94 |
Lambda decomposition (how the goal rates were built)
| Stage | Athletic Club λ | Sevilla λ |
|---|
| Pre-competitive-floor | 0.818 | 0.704 |
| Pre-calibration | 0.818 | 0.704 |
| Final λ | 0.818 | 1.020 |
competition calibration scale 1.0competition observed total goals 0.0quality gap applied Truemismatch score pressure applied Falsecompetitive underdog floor applied Truestage discount 1.0
Scoreline distribution & markets
| Top 5 scorelines | P |
|---|
| 0-1 | 16.1% |
| 0-0 | 16.1% |
| 1-1 | 13.4% |
| 1-0 | 12.9% |
| 0-2 | 8.3% |
| Home win | 28.3% |
| Draw | 32.5% |
| Away win | 39.2% |
| Over 2.5 | 28.0% |
| BTTS yes | 35.9% |
Pregame fair line — favorite Sevilla (39.2%), fair total 1.84, fair spread -0.20
Projected players vs season baseline
Proj = projected for this match · Season = this season's per-game average from match data · deviation badge compares projected xG to the player's season xG/game.
Athletic Club — projected line vs season baseline (4-2-3-1)
| Player | Pos | Min | Proj G | Proj xG | Season xG/g | | Proj Sh | Season Sh/g | Proj Rtg | Season Rtg | Rec |
|---|
| Gorka Guruzeta | F | 60 | 0 | 0.20 | 0.09 | 116% | 2 | 1.4 | 83.3 | 28.3 | 7 |
| Robert Navarro | M | 75 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 100% | 2 | 0.1 | 80.5 | 28.1 | 7 |
| Iñaki Williams | M | 76 | 0 | 0.15 | 0.11 | 32% | 2 | 0.8 | 89.5 | 25.4 | 13 |
| Mikel Jauregizar | M | 65 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.03 | 154% | 1 | 0.7 | 84.7 | 26.9 | 7 |
| Iñigo Ruiz de Galarreta | M | 70 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | 0 | 0.0 | 88.0 | 30.3 | 7 |
| Yuri Berchiche | D | 88 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.01 | 808% | 2 | 0.4 | 87.3 | 18.2 | 5 |
| Aitor Paredes | D | 90 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | 0 | 0.0 | 83.6 | 8.0 | 7 |
| Yeray Álvarez | D | 59 | 0 | 0.20 | 0.02 | 1087% | 0 | 0.1 | 83.3 | 27.3 | 7 |
| Jesús Areso | D | 70 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | 0 | 0.0 | 86.7 | 9.7 | 7 |
| Unai Simón | G | 94 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | | 0.0 | 91.9 | 41.5 | 15 |
| Oihan Sancet | M | 90 | 0 | 0.09 | - | n/a | 2 | - | 84.1 | - | 4 |
| Team totals | 0 | 0.82 | | 11 | | 85.7 | |
Sevilla — projected line vs season baseline (4-2-3-1)
| Player | Pos | Min | Proj G | Proj xG | Season xG/g | | Proj Sh | Season Sh/g | Proj Rtg | Season Rtg | Rec |
|---|
| Miguel Sierra | M | 69 | 0 | 0.15 | 0.01 | 1428% | 2 | 0.3 | 83.6 | 23.7 | 3 |
| Jon Guridi | M | 84 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.15 | 100% | 1 | 0.5 | 84.7 | 46.7 | 6 |
| Lucien Agoumé | M | 77 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | 0 | 0.0 | 82.1 | 45.7 | 6 |
| Gabriel Suazo | D | 84 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | 0 | 0.0 | 80.4 | 42.3 | 6 |
| Andres Castrin | D | 50 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 1733% | 0 | 0.2 | 67.1 | 29.2 | 5 |
| Arouna Sangante | D | 90 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | 0 | 0.0 | 79.7 | 40.4 | 5 |
| Juan Iglesias | D | 89 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 1375% | 0 | 0.2 | 80.8 | 46.3 | 6 |
| Odysseas Vlachodimos | G | 88 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | | 0.0 | 78.7 | 30.6 | 7 |
| Peque Fernández | M | 63 | 0 | 0.19 | 0.16 | ok | 2 | 0.5 | 84.6 | 22.7 | 6 |
| Oso | M | 79 | 0 | 0.32 | 0.05 | 605% | 2 | 1.2 | 84.5 | 46.5 | 6 |
| Robbie Ure | F | 44 | 0 | 0.17 | 0.03 | 471% | 2 | 0.3 | 73.4 | 23.0 | 3 |
| Team totals | 1 | 1.02 | | 9 | | 80.0 | |
Antagonist / tactical summary
Midfield is evenly contested — Mikel Jauregizar vs Lucien Agoumé will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.55, Away: 0.32. Home danger zone: Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle. Away danger zone: Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle.
Midfield — possession 51.7% / 48.3%, dominance ratio 0.54, key duel: Mikel Jauregizar vs Lucien Agoumé
Robert Navarro xG 0.22Iñaki Williams xG 0.10Oihan Sancet xG 0.05Oso xG 0.13Peque Fernández xG 0.06Miguel Sierra xG 0.03
Summary
Antagonist matchup analysis for Athletic Club vs Sevilla. Most likely scoreline: 0-1. Lambdas derived from 5 home and 5 away individual player duels.
Tactical parity between 4-2-3-1 and 4-2-3-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Midfield is evenly contested — Mikel Jauregizar vs Lucien Agoumé will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.55, Away: 0.32. Home danger zone: Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle. Away danger zone: Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle.
Ipswich vs Sunderland
Premier League · 20260822 · 4-2-3-1 vs 4-2-3-1
Predicted 1-1Winner: DrawConfidence 0.73λ home/away 1.02 / 1.46Most-likely P 12.6%
Actual vs predicted: result not available yet (upcoming fixture).
Standing & form context
| Metric | Ipswich | Sunderland |
|---|
| League position | 12.00 | 19.00 |
| Points per game | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Attack index | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Defense (concede) index | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Form multiplier | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Standing λ multiplier | 1.00 | 1.00 |
Lambda decomposition (how the goal rates were built)
| Stage | Ipswich λ | Sunderland λ |
|---|
| Pre-competitive-floor | 0.931 | 1.463 |
| Pre-calibration | 0.931 | 1.463 |
| Final λ | 1.020 | 1.463 |
competition calibration scale 1.0competition observed total goals 0.0quality gap applied Truemismatch score pressure applied Falsecompetitive underdog floor applied Truestage discount 1.0
Scoreline distribution & markets
| Top 5 scorelines | P |
|---|
| 1-1 | 12.6% |
| 0-1 | 12.1% |
| 1-2 | 9.1% |
| 0-2 | 8.9% |
| 0-0 | 8.5% |
| Home win | 26.2% |
| Draw | 26.5% |
| Away win | 47.2% |
| Over 2.5 | 45.2% |
| BTTS yes | 49.2% |
Pregame fair line — favorite Sunderland (47.2%), fair total 2.48, fair spread -0.44
Projected players vs season baseline
Proj = projected for this match · Season = this season's per-game average from match data · deviation badge compares projected xG to the player's season xG/game.
Ipswich — projected line vs season baseline (4-2-3-1)
| Player | Pos | Min | Proj G | Proj xG | Season xG/g | | Proj Sh | Season Sh/g | Proj Rtg | Season Rtg | Rec |
|---|
| Emersonn | F | 28 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.10 | 45% | 2 | 0.6 | 72.1 | 28.2 | 5 |
| Daizen Maeda | F | 88 | 1 | 0.16 | 0.27 | 42% | 2 | 1.3 | 86.1 | 45.8 | 11 |
| Marcelino Núñez | M | 22 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | 2 | - | 79.7 | - | 3 |
| Abdul Fatawu Issahaku | M | 90 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 783% | 2 | 0.3 | 92.1 | 24.5 | 11 |
| Saša Lukić | M | 90 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 100% | 1 | 0.4 | 85.1 | 27.8 | 5 |
| Florentino Luís | M | 87 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.01 | 214% | 1 | 0.5 | 84.1 | 34.3 | 6 |
| Leif Davis | D | 90 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | | - | 83.0 | - | 3 |
| Issa Diop | D | 83 | 0 | 0.63 | 0.07 | 863% | 0 | 0.1 | 82.8 | 39.8 | 12 |
| Jacob Greaves | D | 90 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | | - | 80.8 | - | 3 |
| Kjell Scherpen | G | 90 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | | 0.0 | 79.8 | 40.4 | 7 |
| Dara O'Shea | D | 90 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | | - | 81.9 | - | 4 |
| Team totals | 1 | 1.02 | | 13 | | 82.5 | |
Sunderland — projected line vs season baseline (4-2-3-1)
| Player | Pos | Min | Proj G | Proj xG | Season xG/g | | Proj Sh | Season Sh/g | Proj Rtg | Season Rtg | Rec |
|---|
| Robin Roefs | G | 95 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | | 0.0 | 80.7 | 19.5 | 10 |
| Trai Hume | D | 94 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 100% | 1 | 0.5 | 81.6 | 36.1 | 8 |
| Luke O'Nien | D | 88 | 0 | 0.16 | 0.02 | 642% | 2 | 0.5 | 78.5 | 22.8 | 6 |
| Daniel Ballard | D | 90 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | | - | 80.0 | - | 4 |
| Reinildo Mandava | D | 89 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | 0 | 0.0 | 83.7 | 34.0 | 6 |
| Brian Brobbey | F | 70 | 1 | 0.61 | 0.30 | 106% | 2 | 1.1 | 84.7 | 39.2 | 11 |
| Nilson Angulo | M | 79 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.03 | 229% | 1 | 0.5 | 74.0 | 39.5 | 12 |
| Enzo Le Fée | M | 95 | 0 | 0.48 | 0.08 | 527% | 2 | 1.2 | 83.9 | 39.3 | 6 |
| Chemsdine Talbi | M | 86 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 100% | 2 | 0.2 | 79.7 | 27.9 | 14 |
| Noah Sadiki | M | 79 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 100% | 0 | 0.2 | 81.4 | 47.4 | 10 |
| Granit Xhaka | M | 88 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 100% | 2 | 0.3 | 92.3 | 29.7 | 18 |
| Team totals | 1 | 1.46 | | 12 | | 81.9 | |
Antagonist / tactical summary
Midfield is evenly contested — Abdul Fatawu Issahaku vs Noah Sadiki will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.63, Away: 1.01. Home danger zone: Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle.
Midfield — possession 49.4% / 50.6%, dominance ratio 0.47, key duel: Abdul Fatawu Issahaku vs Noah Sadiki
Marcelino Núñez xG 0.27Daizen Maeda xG 0.20Abdul Fatawu Issahaku xG 0.04Chemsdine Talbi xG 0.28Granit Xhaka xG 0.21Enzo Le Fée xG 0.18
Summary
Antagonist matchup analysis for Ipswich vs Sunderland. Most likely scoreline: 1-1. Lambdas derived from 5 home and 5 away individual player duels.
Tactical parity between 4-2-3-1 and 4-2-3-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Midfield is evenly contested — Abdul Fatawu Issahaku vs Noah Sadiki will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.63, Away: 1.01. Home danger zone: Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle.
Brentford vs Tottenham
Premier League · 20260822 · 4-2-3-1 vs 4-3-2-1
Predicted 1-1Winner: DrawConfidence 0.73λ home/away 1.38 / 1.02Most-likely P 12.9%
Actual vs predicted: result not available yet (upcoming fixture).
Standing & form context
| Metric | Brentford | Tottenham |
|---|
| League position | 4.00 | 20.00 |
| Points per game | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Attack index | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Defense (concede) index | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Form multiplier | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Standing λ multiplier | 1.00 | 1.00 |
Lambda decomposition (how the goal rates were built)
| Stage | Brentford λ | Tottenham λ |
|---|
| Pre-competitive-floor | 1.384 | 0.804 |
| Pre-calibration | 1.384 | 0.804 |
| Final λ | 1.384 | 1.020 |
competition calibration scale 1.0competition observed total goals 0.0quality gap applied Falsemismatch score pressure applied Falsecompetitive underdog floor applied Truestage discount 1.0
Scoreline distribution & markets
| Top 5 scorelines | P |
|---|
| 1-1 | 12.9% |
| 1-0 | 12.4% |
| 0-0 | 9.1% |
| 0-1 | 9.1% |
| 2-1 | 8.8% |
| Home win | 45.1% |
| Draw | 27.3% |
| Away win | 27.6% |
| Over 2.5 | 43.1% |
| BTTS yes | 48.0% |
Pregame fair line — favorite Brentford (45.1%), fair total 2.40, fair spread 0.36
Projected players vs season baseline
Proj = projected for this match · Season = this season's per-game average from match data · deviation badge compares projected xG to the player's season xG/game.
Brentford — projected line vs season baseline (4-2-3-1)
| Player | Pos | Min | Proj G | Proj xG | Season xG/g | | Proj Sh | Season Sh/g | Proj Rtg | Season Rtg | Rec |
|---|
| Igor Thiago | F | 92 | 0 | 0.16 | 0.09 | 73% | 2 | 0.6 | 82.0 | 22.8 | 11 |
| Kevin Schade | M | 63 | 0 | 0.38 | 0.19 | 103% | 2 | 1.0 | 85.0 | 32.2 | 6 |
| Vitaly Janelt | M | 62 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | 0 | 0.0 | 82.7 | 33.7 | 6 |
| Dango Ouattara | M | 95 | 1 | 0.30 | 0.24 | ok | 2 | 1.3 | 84.0 | 36.3 | 6 |
| Mamadou Sangare | M | 95 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.08 | ok | 2 | 1.0 | 79.8 | 29.2 | 5 |
| Mathias Jensen | M | 79 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 100% | 1 | 0.2 | 83.6 | 24.5 | 8 |
| Keane Lewis-Potter | D | 94 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.02 | 221% | 1 | 0.5 | 83.0 | 33.0 | 6 |
| Kristoffer Ajer | D | 93 | 0 | 0.22 | 0.02 | 1364% | 0 | 0.1 | 82.2 | 31.5 | 13 |
| Michael Kayode | D | 95 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | 0 | 0.0 | 80.1 | 32.5 | 6 |
| Caoimhin Kelleher | G | 95 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | | 0.0 | 86.1 | 32.9 | 7 |
| Nathan Collins | D | 95 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.01 | 680% | 0 | 0.1 | 86.4 | 28.9 | 7 |
| Team totals | 1 | 1.38 | | 11 | | 83.2 | |
Tottenham — projected line vs season baseline (4-3-2-1)
| Player | Pos | Min | Proj G | Proj xG | Season xG/g | | Proj Sh | Season Sh/g | Proj Rtg | Season Rtg | Rec |
|---|
| Marcos Senesi | D | 94 | 0 | 0.21 | 0.03 | 718% | 0 | 0.1 | 85.7 | 26.9 | 11 |
| Archie Gray | M | 64 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 100% | 0 | 0.1 | 82.0 | 27.3 | 7 |
| Antonín Kinský | G | 74 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | | 0.0 | 81.8 | 33.4 | 8 |
| Jan Paul van Hecke | D | 95 | 0 | 0.32 | 0.11 | 197% | 1 | 0.4 | 88.1 | 40.0 | 11 |
| Andy Robertson | D | 63 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 1089% | 0 | 0.1 | 90.4 | 22.1 | 18 |
| Sandro Tonali | M | 83 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.02 | 37% | 2 | 1.2 | 93.5 | 43.1 | 8 |
| Mateus Fernandes | M | 95 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.12 | 45% | 1 | 0.8 | 84.0 | 37.2 | 6 |
| Richarlison | F | 62 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.22 | 82% | 2 | 1.6 | 85.0 | 39.0 | 7 |
| Mathys Tel | F | 47 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.11 | 82% | 2 | 1.5 | 83.9 | 41.8 | 8 |
| Mikey Moore | F | 90 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.09 | 31% | 2 | 1.0 | 79.0 | 38.7 | 7 |
| Conor Gallagher | M | 67 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 100% | 1 | 0.5 | 88.2 | 41.8 | 8 |
| Team totals | 1 | 1.02 | | 12 | | 85.6 | |
Antagonist / tactical summary
Midfield is evenly contested — Mamadou Sangare vs Sandro Tonali will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.97, Away: 0.24. Home danger zone: Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle. Away danger zone: CDM vs CDM.
Midfield — possession 48.7% / 51.3%, dominance ratio 0.47, key duel: Mamadou Sangare vs Sandro Tonali
Kevin Schade xG 0.38Mamadou Sangare xG 0.09Dango Ouattara xG 0.35Richarlison xG 0.06Mathys Tel xG 0.03Mateus Fernandes xG 0.10
Summary
Antagonist matchup analysis for Brentford vs Tottenham. Most likely scoreline: 1-1. Lambdas derived from 4 home and 4 away individual player duels.
Tactical parity between 4-2-3-1 and 4-3-2-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Midfield is evenly contested — Mamadou Sangare vs Sandro Tonali will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.97, Away: 0.24. Home danger zone: Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle. Away danger zone: CDM vs CDM.
Generated 2026-09-04 22:27:55 UTC · Soccer prediction reporting