Soccer predictions: actual data vs predicted data
Slate 20260823 · 6 match(es)
How to read this report. Each match shows the model's headline prediction, the stage-by-stage lambda (goal-rate) build, both teams' standing/form inputs, and every starter's projected line next to their real season baseline. A moderate / large deviation badge flags a projection that strays far from the player's season form — a quick way to spot when the inputs look right but a projection does not. When the real result is known an actual-vs-predicted banner appears.
All matches overview
Match detail
Brighton vs Aston Villa
Premier League · 20260823 · 4-2-3-1 vs 4-2-3-1
Predicted 1-1Winner: DrawConfidence 0.71λ home/away 1.24 / 1.02Most-likely P 13.3%
Actual vs predicted: result not available yet (upcoming fixture).
Standing & form context
| Metric | Brighton | Aston Villa |
|---|
| League position | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| Points per game | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Attack index | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Defense (concede) index | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Form multiplier | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Standing λ multiplier | 1.00 | 1.00 |
Lambda decomposition (how the goal rates were built)
| Stage | Brighton λ | Aston Villa λ |
|---|
| Pre-competitive-floor | 1.238 | 0.812 |
| Pre-calibration | 1.238 | 0.812 |
| Final λ | 1.238 | 1.020 |
competition calibration scale 1.0competition observed total goals 0.0quality gap applied Truemismatch score pressure applied Falsecompetitive underdog floor applied Truestage discount 1.0
Scoreline distribution & markets
| Top 5 scorelines | P |
|---|
| 1-1 | 13.3% |
| 1-0 | 12.8% |
| 0-0 | 10.6% |
| 0-1 | 10.5% |
| 2-1 | 8.2% |
| Home win | 41.1% |
| Draw | 28.7% |
| Away win | 30.2% |
| Over 2.5 | 39.3% |
| BTTS yes | 45.5% |
Pregame fair line — favorite Brighton (41.1%), fair total 2.26, fair spread 0.22
Projected players vs season baseline
Proj = projected for this match · Season = this season's per-game average from match data · deviation badge compares projected xG to the player's season xG/game.
Brighton — projected line vs season baseline (4-2-3-1)
| Player | Pos | Min | Proj G | Proj xG | Season xG/g | | Proj Sh | Season Sh/g | Proj Rtg | Season Rtg | Rec |
|---|
| Georginio Rutter | M | 90 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.07 | ok | 2 | 0.5 | 84.3 | 31.8 | 6 |
| Maxim De Cuyper | D | 81 | 0 | 0.45 | 0.09 | 386% | 1 | 0.8 | 87.4 | 44.3 | 13 |
| Jack Hinshelwood | M | 86 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.09 | ok | 1 | 0.8 | 82.1 | 34.5 | 6 |
| Diego Gómez | M | 75 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.13 | 34% | 2 | 1.3 | 79.9 | 42.0 | 9 |
| Yasin Ayari | M | 71 | 1 | 0.20 | 0.02 | 720% | 2 | 0.7 | 82.1 | 45.9 | 12 |
| Ferdi Kadıoğlu | D | 91 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.01 | 796% | 1 | 0.4 | 86.1 | 40.2 | 12 |
| Olivier Boscagli | D | 90 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | | 0.0 | 85.8 | - | 6 |
| Luka Vušković | D | 71 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.01 | 666% | 1 | 0.3 | 79.7 | 28.5 | 10 |
| Mats Wieffer | D | 95 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | 0 | 0.0 | 84.8 | 5.8 | 11 |
| Bart Verbruggen | G | 95 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | | 0.0 | 85.1 | 36.5 | 11 |
| Pascal Groß | M | 70 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.04 | 165% | 2 | 0.5 | 86.7 | 24.8 | 11 |
| Team totals | 1 | 1.24 | | 13 | | 84.0 | |
Aston Villa — projected line vs season baseline (4-2-3-1)
| Player | Pos | Min | Proj G | Proj xG | Season xG/g | | Proj Sh | Season Sh/g | Proj Rtg | Season Rtg | Rec |
|---|
| Tammy Abraham | F | 33 | 0 | 0.23 | - | n/a | 2 | 0.0 | 83.9 | 16.8 | 12 |
| Alejandro Garnacho | F | 29 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.04 | 58% | 2 | 0.6 | 83.8 | 19.1 | 7 |
| Emiliano Buendía | M | 73 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.18 | 36% | 1 | 1.3 | 84.4 | 57.0 | 13 |
| John McGinn | M | 75 | 1 | 0.12 | 0.09 | 34% | 1 | 0.8 | 87.9 | 42.5 | 22 |
| Ross Barkley | M | 69 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.13 | ok | 2 | 0.8 | 83.4 | 33.3 | 6 |
| Boubacar Kamara | M | 90 | 0 | 0.05 | - | n/a | 2 | - | 90.4 | - | 3 |
| Ian Maatsen | D | 40 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 488% | 0 | 0.2 | 85.9 | 35.1 | 13 |
| Tyrone Mings | D | 45 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | 0 | 0.0 | 84.6 | 10.9 | 12 |
| Pau Torres | D | 85 | 0 | 0.19 | 0.08 | 132% | 1 | 0.5 | 87.0 | 47.4 | 13 |
| Matty Cash | D | 79 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.01 | 391% | 0 | 0.4 | 86.0 | 51.8 | 14 |
| Zion Suzuki | G | 95 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | | 0.0 | 81.7 | 43.5 | 10 |
| Team totals | 1 | 1.02 | | 13 | | 85.4 | |
Antagonist / tactical summary
Midfield is evenly contested — Yasin Ayari vs Boubacar Kamara will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.55, Away: 0.55. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle.
Midfield — possession 51.5% / 48.5%, dominance ratio 0.54, key duel: Yasin Ayari vs Boubacar Kamara
Yasin Ayari xG 0.15Pascal Groß xG 0.06Georginio Rutter xG 0.05Ross Barkley xG 0.12Tammy Abraham xG 0.26Boubacar Kamara xG 0.04
Summary
Antagonist matchup analysis for Brighton vs Aston Villa. Most likely scoreline: 1-1. Lambdas derived from 5 home and 5 away individual player duels.
Tactical parity between 4-2-3-1 and 4-2-3-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Midfield is evenly contested — Yasin Ayari vs Boubacar Kamara will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.55, Away: 0.55. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle.
Elche vs Barcelona
LaLiga · 20260823 · 5-4-1 vs 4-2-3-1
Predicted 1-1Winner: DrawConfidence 0.77λ home/away 1.05 / 1.78Most-likely P 11.1%
Actual vs predicted: result not available yet (upcoming fixture).
Standing & form context
| Metric | Elche | Barcelona |
|---|
| League position | 7.00 | 12.00 |
| Points per game | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| Attack index | 0.42 | 1.00 |
| Defense (concede) index | 1.00 | 0.42 |
| Form multiplier | 1.05 | 0.95 |
| Standing λ multiplier | 0.73 | 0.71 |
Lambda decomposition (how the goal rates were built)
| Stage | Elche λ | Barcelona λ |
|---|
| Pre-mismatch | 0.715 | 1.538 |
| Pre-competitive-floor | 0.679 | 1.780 |
| Pre-calibration | 0.715 | 1.538 |
| Final λ | 1.050 | 1.780 |
competition calibration scale 1.0competition observed total goals 0.0quality gap applied Truemismatch score pressure applied Truecompetitive underdog floor applied Truestage discount 1.0
Scoreline distribution & markets
| Top 5 scorelines | P |
|---|
| 1-1 | 11.1% |
| 0-1 | 10.4% |
| 1-2 | 9.8% |
| 0-2 | 9.3% |
| 1-0 | 6.1% |
| Home win | 22.2% |
| Draw | 23.4% |
| Away win | 54.4% |
| Over 2.5 | 53.8% |
| BTTS yes | 54.1% |
Pregame fair line — favorite Barcelona (54.4%), fair total 2.83, fair spread -0.73
Projected players vs season baseline
Proj = projected for this match · Season = this season's per-game average from match data · deviation badge compares projected xG to the player's season xG/game.
Elche — projected line vs season baseline (5-4-1)
| Player | Pos | Min | Proj G | Proj xG | Season xG/g | | Proj Sh | Season Sh/g | Proj Rtg | Season Rtg | Rec |
|---|
| Fernando Niño | F | 68 | 1 | 0.32 | 0.15 | 109% | 2 | 0.3 | 6.3 | 21.3 | 3 |
| Marc Aguado | M | 87 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 100% | 1 | 0.2 | 76.7 | 46.8 | 6 |
| Lucas Cepeda | M | 77 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 203% | 1 | 0.2 | 79.2 | 21.3 | 6 |
| Gonzalo Villar | M | 82 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 100% | 1 | 0.5 | 78.8 | 45.8 | 6 |
| Ali Houary | M | 79 | 0 | 0.35 | 0.15 | 129% | 2 | 1.0 | 68.7 | 22.0 | 3 |
| Germán Valera | M | 89 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.03 | 129% | 1 | 0.5 | 90.8 | 45.5 | 6 |
| Víctor Chust | D | 73 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.01 | 525% | 0 | 0.2 | 77.8 | 48.2 | 6 |
| Federico Redondo | M | 90 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.01 | 498% | 1 | 0.2 | 78.7 | 11.2 | 6 |
| David Affengruber | D | 93 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.01 | 471% | 1 | 0.3 | 82.3 | 25.3 | 11 |
| Buba Sangaré | D | 56 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | 0 | 0.0 | 69.3 | 42.5 | 6 |
| Matías Dituro | G | 88 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | | 0.0 | 81.5 | 44.5 | 6 |
| Team totals | 1 | 1.05 | | 12 | | 71.8 | |
Barcelona — projected line vs season baseline (4-2-3-1)
| Player | Pos | Min | Proj G | Proj xG | Season xG/g | | Proj Sh | Season Sh/g | Proj Rtg | Season Rtg | Rec |
|---|
| Raphinha | M | 95 | 1 | 0.64 | 0.12 | 411% | 3 | 1.0 | 96.7 | 28.3 | 14 |
| Fermín López | M | 64 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.14 | 100% | 1 | 0.8 | 95.3 | 37.8 | 9 |
| Lamine Yamal | M | 95 | 0 | 0.30 | 0.25 | ok | 2 | 2.0 | 96.8 | 45.9 | 18 |
| Marc Bernal | M | 87 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 100% | 0 | 0.2 | 80.3 | 38.9 | 9 |
| Xavi Espart | D | 26 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 2445% | 0 | 0.1 | 84.3 | 23.7 | 11 |
| Jordi Pesquer | D | 90 | 0 | 0.04 | - | n/a | 0 | - | 6.8 | - | 0 |
| Gerard Martín | D | 95 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 1175% | 0 | 0.2 | 81.7 | 39.2 | 11 |
| Eric García | D | 61 | 0 | 0.13 | 0.00 | 4741% | 0 | 0.1 | 86.8 | 19.3 | 18 |
| Jules Koundé | D | 88 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.01 | 1457% | 0 | 0.2 | 94.5 | 47.4 | 17 |
| Hamza Abdelkarim | F | 14 | 0 | 0.46 | - | n/a | 2 | 0.0 | 88.4 | 24.4 | 8 |
| Joan García | G | 95 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | | 0.0 | 90.3 | 19.2 | 18 |
| Team totals | 1 | 1.78 | | 8 | | 82.0 | |
Antagonist / tactical summary
Away midfield dictates play with ~55% possession expected (Germán Valera vs Lamine Yamal). Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.80, Away: 0.70. Home danger zone: Right Mid vs Left Back — Wide Channel. Away danger zone: CAM vs CM.
Midfield — possession 45.2% / 54.8%, dominance ratio 0.37, key duel: Germán Valera vs Lamine Yamal
Fernando Niño xG 0.30Lucas Cepeda xG 0.01Ali Houary xG 0.33Lamine Yamal xG 0.15Raphinha xG 0.34Hamza Abdelkarim xG 0.19
Summary
Antagonist matchup analysis for Elche vs Barcelona. Most likely scoreline: 1-1. Lambdas derived from 6 home and 4 away individual player duels.
Tactical parity between 5-4-1 and 4-2-3-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Away midfield dictates play with ~55% possession expected (Germán Valera vs Lamine Yamal). Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.80, Away: 0.70. Home danger zone: Right Mid vs Left Back — Wide Channel. Away danger zone: CAM vs CM.
Man City vs Bournemouth
Premier League · 20260823 · 4-2-3-1 vs 4-2-3-1
Predicted 3-0Winner: Man CityConfidence 0.92λ home/away 3.44 / 0.68Most-likely P 11.1%
Actual vs predicted: result not available yet (upcoming fixture).
Standing & form context
| Metric | Man City | Bournemouth |
|---|
| League position | 15.00 | 1.00 |
| Points per game | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Attack index | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Defense (concede) index | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Form multiplier | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Standing λ multiplier | 1.00 | 1.00 |
Lambda decomposition (how the goal rates were built)
| Stage | Man City λ | Bournemouth λ |
|---|
| Pre-mismatch | 3.132 | 0.696 |
| Pre-calibration | 3.132 | 0.696 |
| Final λ | 3.444 | 0.677 |
competition calibration scale 1.0competition observed total goals 0.0quality gap applied Truemismatch score pressure applied Truecompetitive underdog floor applied Falsestage discount 1.0
Scoreline distribution & markets
| Top 5 scorelines | P |
|---|
| 3-0 | 11.1% |
| 2-0 | 9.7% |
| 4-0 | 9.5% |
| 3-1 | 7.5% |
| 5-0 | 6.6% |
| Home win | 87.8% |
| Draw | 8.3% |
| Away win | 3.9% |
| Over 2.5 | 77.8% |
| BTTS yes | 47.6% |
Pregame fair line — favorite Man City (87.8%), fair total 4.12, fair spread 2.77
Projected players vs season baseline
Proj = projected for this match · Season = this season's per-game average from match data · deviation badge compares projected xG to the player's season xG/game.
Man City — projected line vs season baseline (4-2-3-1)
| Player | Pos | Min | Proj G | Proj xG | Season xG/g | | Proj Sh | Season Sh/g | Proj Rtg | Season Rtg | Rec |
|---|
| Erling Haaland | F | 95 | 3 | 1.54 | 0.46 | 235% | 3 | 2.1 | 98.7 | 40.1 | 15 |
| Antoine Semenyo | M | 88 | 0 | 0.12 | 0.06 | 80% | 2 | 1.0 | 87.1 | 48.0 | 14 |
| Phil Foden | M | 54 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 100% | 2 | 0.3 | 92.9 | 32.1 | 9 |
| Rayan Cherki | M | 34 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 100% | 2 | 0.6 | 88.3 | 49.0 | 18 |
| Mateo Kovačić | M | 53 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.03 | 130% | 1 | 0.5 | 90.0 | 39.9 | 12 |
| Elliot Anderson | M | 89 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 100% | 1 | 1.0 | 88.1 | 57.3 | 18 |
| Nico O'Reilly | D | 80 | 0 | 0.58 | 0.12 | 391% | 1 | 0.7 | 80.1 | 37.8 | 15 |
| Rúben Dias | D | 92 | 0 | 0.42 | 0.01 | 3303% | 0 | 0.1 | 93.9 | 32.5 | 15 |
| Matheus Nunes | D | 81 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | 0 | 0.0 | 86.8 | 14.4 | 19 |
| Gianluigi Donnarumma | G | 95 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | | 0.0 | 96.6 | 43.3 | 10 |
| Joško Gvardiol | D | 44 | 0 | 0.30 | 0.03 | 1074% | 0 | 0.2 | 91.2 | 39.3 | 10 |
| Team totals | 3 | 3.44 | | 14 | | 90.3 | |
Bournemouth — projected line vs season baseline (4-2-3-1)
| Player | Pos | Min | Proj G | Proj xG | Season xG/g | | Proj Sh | Season Sh/g | Proj Rtg | Season Rtg | Rec |
|---|
| António Silva | D | 95 | 0 | 0.27 | 0.10 | 182% | 2 | 0.4 | 85.5 | 20.3 | 7 |
| Adam Smith | D | 88 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | 0 | 0.0 | 79.7 | 34.3 | 6 |
| Đorđe Petrović | G | 95 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | | 0.0 | 87.2 | 34.7 | 6 |
| James Hill | D | 95 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.02 | 144% | 0 | 0.2 | 78.1 | 33.7 | 6 |
| Adrien Truffert | D | 95 | 0 | 0.15 | 0.06 | 140% | 1 | 0.3 | 85.0 | 37.3 | 6 |
| Alex Scott | M | 95 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | 1 | 0.0 | 81.8 | 28.2 | 5 |
| Lewis Cook | M | 7 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | 0 | 0.0 | 81.8 | 13.0 | 5 |
| Evanilson | F | 73 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.14 | 75% | 2 | 0.8 | 87.1 | 34.2 | 6 |
| Marcus Tavernier | M | 90 | 0 | 0.12 | 0.08 | 51% | 2 | 1.0 | 83.6 | 37.7 | 6 |
| Justin Kluivert | M | 90 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 264% | 2 | 0.1 | 86.1 | 14.9 | 13 |
| Rayan | M | 84 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.10 | 81% | 2 | 0.7 | 88.5 | 33.0 | 15 |
| Team totals | 0 | 0.68 | | 13 | | 84.0 | |
Antagonist / tactical summary
Midfield is evenly contested — Elliot Anderson vs Rayan will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 1.47, Away: 0.57. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle.
Midfield — possession 51.1% / 48.9%, dominance ratio 0.53, key duel: Elliot Anderson vs Rayan
Antoine Semenyo xG 0.07Rayan Cherki xG 0.43Phil Foden xG 0.21Marcus Tavernier xG 0.29Rayan xG 0.05Justin Kluivert xG 0.03
Summary
Antagonist matchup analysis for Man City vs Bournemouth. Most likely scoreline: 3-0. Lambdas derived from 5 home and 5 away individual player duels.
Tactical parity between 4-2-3-1 and 4-2-3-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Midfield is evenly contested — Elliot Anderson vs Rayan will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 1.47, Away: 0.57. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle.
Newcastle vs Liverpool
Premier League · 20260823 · 4-3-3 vs 4-2-3-1
Predicted 1-1Winner: DrawConfidence 0.71λ home/away 1.02 / 1.20Most-likely P 13.4%
Actual vs predicted: result not available yet (upcoming fixture).
Standing & form context
| Metric | Newcastle | Liverpool |
|---|
| League position | 17.00 | 14.00 |
| Points per game | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Attack index | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Defense (concede) index | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Form multiplier | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Standing λ multiplier | 1.00 | 1.00 |
Lambda decomposition (how the goal rates were built)
| Stage | Newcastle λ | Liverpool λ |
|---|
| Pre-competitive-floor | 0.688 | 1.204 |
| Pre-calibration | 0.688 | 1.204 |
| Final λ | 1.020 | 1.204 |
competition calibration scale 1.0competition observed total goals 0.0quality gap applied Truemismatch score pressure applied Falsecompetitive underdog floor applied Truestage discount 1.0
Scoreline distribution & markets
| Top 5 scorelines | P |
|---|
| 1-1 | 13.4% |
| 0-1 | 12.9% |
| 0-0 | 10.9% |
| 1-0 | 10.9% |
| 1-2 | 8.0% |
| Home win | 30.9% |
| Draw | 29.0% |
| Away win | 40.1% |
| Over 2.5 | 38.4% |
| BTTS yes | 44.9% |
Pregame fair line — favorite Liverpool (40.1%), fair total 2.22, fair spread -0.18
Projected players vs season baseline
Proj = projected for this match · Season = this season's per-game average from match data · deviation badge compares projected xG to the player's season xG/game.
Newcastle — projected line vs season baseline (4-3-3)
| Player | Pos | Min | Proj G | Proj xG | Season xG/g | | Proj Sh | Season Sh/g | Proj Rtg | Season Rtg | Rec |
|---|
| Harvey Barnes | F | 95 | 1 | 0.40 | 0.16 | 148% | 2 | 1.4 | 87.9 | 44.0 | 8 |
| William Osula | F | 63 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.17 | 41% | 2 | 1.0 | 75.1 | 35.0 | 10 |
| Anthony Elanga | F | 54 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.11 | 93% | 2 | 0.6 | 88.6 | 39.9 | 16 |
| Yoane Wissa | F | 62 | 0 | 0.26 | 0.21 | ok | 2 | 0.9 | 89.0 | 40.2 | 12 |
| Jacob Ramsey | M | 84 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 100% | 1 | 0.5 | 85.3 | 42.4 | 8 |
| Lewis Hall | D | 95 | 0 | 0.14 | 0.02 | 475% | 1 | 0.5 | 87.1 | 39.6 | 8 |
| Sven Botman | D | 79 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 1197% | 0 | 0.1 | 89.7 | 34.9 | 8 |
| Malick Thiaw | D | 78 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | 0 | 0.0 | 85.1 | 29.5 | 13 |
| Amar Dedić | D | 83 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 983% | 0 | 0.2 | 79.7 | 37.0 | 12 |
| Lukáš Horníček | G | 92 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | | 0.0 | 79.1 | 42.1 | 15 |
| Aladji Bamba | M | 65 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 100% | 1 | 0.2 | 70.1 | 27.4 | 5 |
| Team totals | 1 | 1.02 | | 11 | | 83.3 | |
Liverpool — projected line vs season baseline (4-2-3-1)
| Player | Pos | Min | Proj G | Proj xG | Season xG/g | | Proj Sh | Season Sh/g | Proj Rtg | Season Rtg | Rec |
|---|
| Ryan Gravenberch | M | 95 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.05 | 35% | 1 | 0.9 | 92.4 | 43.6 | 14 |
| Dominik Szoboszlai | M | 95 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.10 | 42% | 2 | 1.3 | 90.7 | 44.1 | 10 |
| Miloš Kerkez | D | 75 | 0 | 0.31 | 0.05 | 530% | 1 | 0.4 | 89.1 | 40.1 | 10 |
| Virgil van Dijk | D | 92 | 0 | 0.21 | 0.06 | 226% | 1 | 0.4 | 97.4 | 47.2 | 14 |
| Jérémy Jacquet | D | 90 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | | - | 82.4 | - | 3 |
| Jeremie Frimpong | D | 43 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.01 | 780% | 0 | 0.1 | 90.1 | 41.0 | 8 |
| Alisson | G | 92 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | | 0.0 | 95.9 | 49.9 | 10 |
| Rio Ngumoha | F | 13 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.04 | ok | 2 | 0.9 | 74.2 | 22.1 | 9 |
| Florian Wirtz | M | 77 | 0 | 0.13 | 0.17 | ok | 3 | 1.3 | 96.7 | 42.5 | 15 |
| Alexander Isak | F | 77 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.07 | ok | 2 | 0.8 | 95.2 | 36.8 | 11 |
| Cody Gakpo | M | 90 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.14 | 54% | 3 | 0.9 | 91.5 | 36.8 | 17 |
| Team totals | 1 | 1.20 | | 17 | | 90.5 | |
Antagonist / tactical summary
Away midfield dictates play with ~52% possession expected (Jacob Ramsey vs Florian Wirtz). Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.52, Away: 0.28. Home danger zone: Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle. Away danger zone: Holding Mid vs Central Mid — Midfield Anchor Duel.
Midfield — possession 48.2% / 51.8%, dominance ratio 0.42, key duel: Jacob Ramsey vs Florian Wirtz
Harvey Barnes xG 0.27Anthony Elanga xG 0.01William Osula xG 0.07Dominik Szoboszlai xG 0.06Rio Ngumoha xG 0.03Cody Gakpo xG 0.07
Summary
Antagonist matchup analysis for Newcastle vs Liverpool. Most likely scoreline: 1-1. Lambdas derived from 5 home and 5 away individual player duels.
Tactical parity between 4-3-3 and 4-2-3-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Away midfield dictates play with ~52% possession expected (Jacob Ramsey vs Florian Wirtz). Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.52, Away: 0.28. Home danger zone: Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle. Away danger zone: Holding Mid vs Central Mid — Midfield Anchor Duel.
Getafe vs R. Racing Club
LaLiga · 20260823 · 3-4-1-2 vs 4-2-3-1
Predicted 1-1Winner: DrawConfidence 0.71λ home/away 1.02 / 1.19Most-likely P 13.4%
Actual vs predicted: result not available yet (upcoming fixture).
Standing & form context
| Metric | Getafe | R. Racing Club |
|---|
| League position | 20.00 | 5.00 |
| Points per game | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| Attack index | 1.00 | 0.84 |
| Defense (concede) index | 0.84 | 1.25 |
| Form multiplier | 0.95 | 1.05 |
| Standing λ multiplier | 0.92 | 1.03 |
Lambda decomposition (how the goal rates were built)
| Stage | Getafe λ | R. Racing Club λ |
|---|
| Pre-competitive-floor | 0.837 | 1.191 |
| Pre-calibration | 0.837 | 1.191 |
| Final λ | 1.020 | 1.191 |
competition calibration scale 1.0competition observed total goals 0.0quality gap applied Falsemismatch score pressure applied Falsecompetitive underdog floor applied Truestage discount 1.0
Scoreline distribution & markets
| Top 5 scorelines | P |
|---|
| 1-1 | 13.4% |
| 0-1 | 12.9% |
| 0-0 | 11.1% |
| 1-0 | 11.1% |
| 1-2 | 7.9% |
| Home win | 31.1% |
| Draw | 29.1% |
| Away win | 39.7% |
| Over 2.5 | 38.0% |
| BTTS yes | 44.6% |
Pregame fair line — favorite R. Racing Club (39.7%), fair total 2.21, fair spread -0.17
Projected players vs season baseline
Proj = projected for this match · Season = this season's per-game average from match data · deviation badge compares projected xG to the player's season xG/game.
Getafe — projected line vs season baseline (3-4-1-2)
| Player | Pos | Min | Proj G | Proj xG | Season xG/g | | Proj Sh | Season Sh/g | Proj Rtg | Season Rtg | Rec |
|---|
| Orel Mangala | M | 49 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 100% | 0 | 0.2 | 83.6 | 44.0 | 6 |
| Andrés García | D | 45 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | 0 | 0.0 | 79.7 | 10.8 | 12 |
| Zaid Romero | D | 88 | 0 | 0.20 | 0.03 | 560% | 0 | 0.3 | 78.9 | 48.5 | 6 |
| Abdel Abqar | D | 65 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | 0 | 0.0 | 83.4 | 39.2 | 5 |
| Djené | D | 62 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | 0 | 0.0 | 82.4 | 37.0 | 5 |
| David Soria | G | 88 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | | 0.0 | 87.9 | 45.8 | 6 |
| Mario Martín | M | 78 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | 2 | 0.0 | 74.7 | 41.8 | 6 |
| Johan Mojica | D | 84 | 0 | 0.15 | 0.03 | 482% | 0 | 0.4 | 84.8 | 27.0 | 10 |
| Enes Ünal | F | 20 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 84% | 2 | 0.5 | 83.6 | 44.2 | 6 |
| Ramón Terrats | M | 51 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.02 | 565% | 1 | 0.5 | 82.7 | 33.3 | 6 |
| Martín Satriano | F | 85 | 1 | 0.37 | 0.29 | ok | 2 | 1.0 | 81.1 | 42.2 | 5 |
| Team totals | 1 | 1.02 | | 9 | | 82.1 | |
R. Racing Club — projected line vs season baseline (4-2-3-1)
| Player | Pos | Min | Proj G | Proj xG | Season xG/g | | Proj Sh | Season Sh/g | Proj Rtg | Season Rtg | Rec |
|---|
| Asier Villalibre | F | 68 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.05 | 134% | 2 | 0.2 | 6.4 | 15.2 | 4 |
| Iñigo Vicente | M | 90 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | 0 | 0.0 | 82.7 | 20.0 | 4 |
| Andrés Martín | M | 90 | 1 | 0.57 | 0.28 | 100% | 2 | 1.5 | 81.4 | 18.8 | 4 |
| Sergio Martinez | M | 68 | 0 | 0.14 | 0.02 | 679% | 1 | 0.2 | 7.2 | 18.5 | 4 |
| Gustavo Puerta | M | 91 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.05 | 57% | 2 | 1.6 | 75.5 | 40.0 | 9 |
| Jorge Salinas | D | 90 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | 0 | 0.0 | 63.6 | 17.2 | 4 |
| Pablo Ramón | D | 76 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | 0 | 0.0 | 71.5 | 16.5 | 4 |
| Manu Hernando | D | 73 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 157% | 1 | 0.2 | 75.1 | 17.5 | 4 |
| Alvaro Mantilla | D | 88 | 0 | 0.16 | 0.04 | 264% | 2 | 0.5 | 6.3 | 15.8 | 4 |
| Julen Agirrezabala | G | 91 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | | 0.0 | 87.1 | 9.3 | 7 |
| Sergio Canales | M | 76 | 0 | 0.13 | 0.03 | 363% | 2 | 0.6 | 89.6 | 13.4 | 5 |
| Team totals | 1 | 1.19 | | 12 | | 58.8 | |
Antagonist / tactical summary
Midfield is evenly contested — Mario Martín vs Gustavo Puerta will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.40, Away: 0.90. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: LW vs CB.
Midfield — possession 49.3% / 50.7%, dominance ratio 0.47, key duel: Mario Martín vs Gustavo Puerta
Martín Satriano xG 0.17Enes Ünal xG 0.00Ramón Terrats xG 0.05Andrés Martín xG 0.57Gustavo Puerta xG 0.08Sergio Canales xG 0.13
Summary
Antagonist matchup analysis for Getafe vs R. Racing Club. Most likely scoreline: 1-1. Lambdas derived from 5 home and 4 away individual player duels.
Tactical parity between 3-4-1-2 and 4-2-3-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Midfield is evenly contested — Mario Martín vs Gustavo Puerta will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.40, Away: 0.90. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: LW vs CB.
Atl. Madrid vs Villarreal
LaLiga · 20260823 · 4-3-1-2 vs 4-4-2
Predicted 1-1Winner: DrawConfidence 0.74λ home/away 1.53 / 1.06Most-likely P 12.2%
Actual vs predicted: result not available yet (upcoming fixture).
Standing & form context
| Metric | Atl. Madrid | Villarreal |
|---|
| League position | 3.00 | 6.00 |
| Points per game | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| Attack index | 0.84 | 0.84 |
| Defense (concede) index | 0.84 | 1.00 |
| Form multiplier | 1.06 | 0.94 |
| Standing λ multiplier | 0.88 | 0.92 |
Lambda decomposition (how the goal rates were built)
| Stage | Atl. Madrid λ | Villarreal λ |
|---|
| Pre-competitive-floor | 1.535 | 1.056 |
| Pre-calibration | 1.181 | 1.006 |
| Final λ | 1.535 | 1.056 |
competition calibration scale 1.0competition observed total goals 0.0quality gap applied Truemismatch score pressure applied Falsecompetitive underdog floor applied Falsestage discount 1.0
Scoreline distribution & markets
| Top 5 scorelines | P |
|---|
| 1-1 | 12.2% |
| 1-0 | 11.4% |
| 2-1 | 9.3% |
| 2-0 | 8.8% |
| 0-1 | 7.8% |
| Home win | 48.3% |
| Draw | 25.8% |
| Away win | 26.0% |
| Over 2.5 | 47.9% |
| BTTS yes | 51.3% |
Pregame fair line — favorite Atl. Madrid (48.3%), fair total 2.59, fair spread 0.48
Projected players vs season baseline
Proj = projected for this match · Season = this season's per-game average from match data · deviation badge compares projected xG to the player's season xG/game.
Atl. Madrid — projected line vs season baseline (4-3-1-2)
| Player | Pos | Min | Proj G | Proj xG | Season xG/g | | Proj Sh | Season Sh/g | Proj Rtg | Season Rtg | Rec |
|---|
| Ademola Lookman | F | 81 | 0 | 0.35 | 0.28 | ok | 2 | 1.4 | 90.9 | 52.8 | 13 |
| Giuliano Simeone | M | 75 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 100% | 2 | 0.4 | 88.0 | 31.2 | 23 |
| Rodrigo Mendoza | M | 39 | 0 | 0.14 | 0.06 | 112% | 2 | 0.4 | 82.8 | 14.7 | 9 |
| Morten Hjulmand | M | 84 | 1 | 0.17 | 0.10 | 77% | 1 | 0.4 | 90.7 | 39.8 | 9 |
| Koke | M | 70 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 100% | 0 | 0.3 | 87.7 | 52.5 | 13 |
| Pablo Barrios | M | 61 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | 0 | 0.0 | 89.4 | 28.2 | 5 |
| Alejandro Grimaldo | M | 93 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.02 | 242% | 1 | 0.3 | 96.4 | 18.1 | 20 |
| Dávid Hancko | D | 86 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.02 | 380% | 1 | 0.8 | 90.5 | 54.0 | 13 |
| Robin Le Normand | D | 82 | 0 | 0.53 | 0.06 | 801% | 0 | 0.2 | 90.2 | 51.8 | 12 |
| Marcos Llorente | D | 92 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.02 | 203% | 0 | 0.4 | 91.5 | 40.0 | 21 |
| Jan Oblak | G | 92 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | | 0.0 | 95.2 | 21.2 | 17 |
| Team totals | 1 | 1.53 | | 10 | | 90.3 | |
Villarreal — projected line vs season baseline (4-4-2)
| Player | Pos | Min | Proj G | Proj xG | Season xG/g | | Proj Sh | Season Sh/g | Proj Rtg | Season Rtg | Rec |
|---|
| Georges Mikautadze | F | 89 | 1 | 0.33 | 0.23 | 45% | 2 | 1.0 | 85.0 | 27.0 | 8 |
| Ayoze Pérez | F | 60 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.11 | 56% | 2 | 1.0 | 85.1 | 41.9 | 7 |
| Alberto Moleiro | M | 90 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 100% | 2 | 0.4 | 84.9 | 37.3 | 7 |
| Santi Comesaña | M | 47 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 100% | 1 | 0.2 | 84.5 | 32.3 | 6 |
| Nicolas Pépé | F | 45 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 99% | 1 | 0.9 | 86.6 | 39.1 | 13 |
| Carlos Romero | D | 95 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.03 | ok | 2 | 1.0 | 83.0 | 45.4 | 7 |
| Renato Veiga | D | 95 | 0 | 0.30 | 0.03 | 763% | 0 | 0.2 | 83.7 | 41.4 | 12 |
| Juan Foyth | D | 41 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | 0 | 0.0 | 85.7 | 18.2 | 4 |
| Santiago Mouriño | D | 93 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.02 | 160% | 1 | 0.3 | 81.6 | 29.7 | 7 |
| Luiz Júnior | G | 91 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | | 0.0 | 83.2 | 8.4 | 7 |
| Pape Gueye | M | 72 | 0 | 0.26 | 0.04 | 520% | 2 | 0.9 | 86.0 | 47.7 | 11 |
| Team totals | 1 | 1.06 | | 13 | | 84.5 | |
Antagonist / tactical summary
Midfield is evenly contested — Pablo Barrios vs Alberto Moleiro will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.45, Away: 1.31. Home danger zone: CAM vs CM. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle.
Midfield — possession 50.8% / 49.2%, dominance ratio 0.52, key duel: Pablo Barrios vs Alberto Moleiro
Rodrigo Mendoza xG 0.06Ademola Lookman xG 0.24Giuliano Simeone xG 0.15Pape Gueye xG 0.48Alberto Moleiro xG 0.16Santi Comesaña xG 0.10
Summary
Antagonist matchup analysis for Atl. Madrid vs Villarreal. Most likely scoreline: 1-1. Lambdas derived from 3 home and 6 away individual player duels.
Tactical parity between 4-3-1-2 and 4-4-2. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Midfield is evenly contested — Pablo Barrios vs Alberto Moleiro will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.45, Away: 1.31. Home danger zone: CAM vs CM. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle.
Generated 2026-09-04 22:27:55 UTC · Soccer prediction reporting