Soccer predictions: actual data vs predicted data
Slate 20260824 · 3 match(es)
How to read this report. Each match shows the model's headline prediction, the stage-by-stage lambda (goal-rate) build, both teams' standing/form inputs, and every starter's projected line next to their real season baseline. A moderate / large deviation badge flags a projection that strays far from the player's season form — a quick way to spot when the inputs look right but a projection does not. When the real result is known an actual-vs-predicted banner appears.
All matches overview
| Match | Score | Winner | H / D / A | O2.5 | BTTS | Conf | λ H/A | Actual | Result |
|---|
| Fulham vs Chelsea Premier League | 0-2 | Chelsea | 8.8% / 15.9% / 75.3% | 59.9% | 45.6% | 0.84 | 0.69 / 2.41 | - | pending |
| Málaga vs Deportivo LaLiga | 1-0 | Málaga | 39.7% / 32.7% / 27.6% | 27.4% | 35.3% | 0.67 | 1.02 / 0.80 | - | pending |
| Osasuna vs Levante LaLiga | 1-1 | Draw | 38.8% / 28.4% / 32.8% | 40.8% | 47.0% | 0.72 | 1.22 / 1.10 | - | pending |
Match detail
Fulham vs Chelsea
Premier League · 20260824 · 4-2-3-1 vs 3-4-2-1
Predicted 0-2Winner: ChelseaConfidence 0.84λ home/away 0.69 / 2.41Most-likely P 13.0%
Actual vs predicted: result not available yet (upcoming fixture).
Standing & form context
| Metric | Fulham | Chelsea |
|---|
| League position | 10.00 | 6.00 |
| Points per game | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Attack index | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Defense (concede) index | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Form multiplier | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Standing λ multiplier | 1.00 | 1.00 |
Lambda decomposition (how the goal rates were built)
| Stage | Fulham λ | Chelsea λ |
|---|
| Pre-mismatch | 0.724 | 2.134 |
| Pre-calibration | 0.724 | 2.134 |
| Final λ | 0.695 | 2.408 |
competition calibration scale 1.0competition observed total goals 0.0quality gap applied Truemismatch score pressure applied Truecompetitive underdog floor applied Falsestage discount 1.0
Scoreline distribution & markets
| Top 5 scorelines | P |
|---|
| 0-2 | 13.0% |
| 0-1 | 10.8% |
| 0-3 | 10.4% |
| 1-2 | 9.0% |
| 1-1 | 7.5% |
| Home win | 8.8% |
| Draw | 15.9% |
| Away win | 75.3% |
| Over 2.5 | 59.9% |
| BTTS yes | 45.6% |
Pregame fair line — favorite Chelsea (75.3%), fair total 3.10, fair spread -1.71
Projected players vs season baseline
Proj = projected for this match · Season = this season's per-game average from match data · deviation badge compares projected xG to the player's season xG/game.
Fulham — projected line vs season baseline (4-2-3-1)
| Player | Pos | Min | Proj G | Proj xG | Season xG/g | | Proj Sh | Season Sh/g | Proj Rtg | Season Rtg | Rec |
|---|
| Gonzalo García | F | 64 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 93% | 2 | 0.3 | 85.6 | 25.9 | 11 |
| Joshua King | M | 19 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 100% | 2 | 0.3 | 80.9 | 34.2 | 6 |
| Oscar Bobb | M | 38 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 100% | 0 | 0.4 | 79.0 | 39.3 | 14 |
| Sander Berge | M | 88 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 100% | 0 | 0.2 | 86.4 | 31.8 | 13 |
| Alex Iwobi | M | 82 | 0 | 0.27 | 0.10 | 176% | 2 | 1.6 | 87.3 | 29.0 | 5 |
| Antonee Robinson | D | 94 | 0 | 0.23 | 0.07 | 228% | 1 | 0.2 | 89.3 | 41.8 | 12 |
| Jorge Cuenca | D | 13 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | 0 | 0.0 | 80.8 | 13.4 | 5 |
| Calvin Bassey | D | 95 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | 0 | 0.0 | 85.6 | 35.5 | 6 |
| Timothy Castagne | D | 79 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.02 | 269% | 1 | 0.3 | 83.1 | 44.5 | 13 |
| Bernd Leno | G | 89 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | | 0.0 | 86.9 | 34.7 | 6 |
| César Palacios | M | 14 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | 2 | 0.0 | 82.4 | 18.1 | 7 |
| Team totals | 0 | 0.69 | | 11 | | 84.3 | |
Chelsea — projected line vs season baseline (3-4-2-1)
| Player | Pos | Min | Proj G | Proj xG | Season xG/g | | Proj Sh | Season Sh/g | Proj Rtg | Season Rtg | Rec |
|---|
| Morgan Rogers | M | 82 | 0 | 0.14 | 0.11 | ok | 1 | 1.2 | 89.4 | 51.8 | 20 |
| Cole Palmer | M | 86 | 0 | 0.24 | 0.10 | 136% | 3 | 1.3 | 94.3 | 39.6 | 7 |
| Marco Palestra | M | 95 | 0 | 0.42 | 0.05 | 815% | 1 | 0.8 | 68.0 | 33.4 | 8 |
| Moisés Caicedo | M | 95 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 100% | 2 | 0.5 | 95.1 | 52.8 | 11 |
| Enzo Fernández | M | 88 | 1 | 0.45 | 0.09 | 416% | 2 | 0.9 | 91.6 | 39.2 | 15 |
| Pedro Neto | M | 86 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 100% | 1 | 0.3 | 87.3 | 46.8 | 13 |
| Levi Colwill | D | 95 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | 0 | 0.0 | 88.0 | 17.8 | 4 |
| Maxence Lacroix | D | 88 | 0 | 0.15 | 0.01 | 2490% | 0 | 0.1 | 86.6 | 25.7 | 16 |
| Reece James | D | 70 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 1977% | 0 | 0.1 | 88.5 | 28.9 | 14 |
| Robert Sánchez | G | 94 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | | 0.0 | 84.7 | 27.6 | 7 |
| João Pedro | F | 73 | 1 | 0.71 | 0.26 | 175% | 2 | 1.5 | 86.2 | 32.3 | 6 |
| Team totals | 2 | 2.41 | | 13 | | 87.2 | |
Antagonist / tactical summary
Away midfield dictates play with ~52% possession expected (Oscar Bobb vs Morgan Rogers). Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.53, Away: 0.76. Home danger zone: LW vs CB. Away danger zone: Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle.
Midfield — possession 47.9% / 52.1%, dominance ratio 0.42, key duel: Oscar Bobb vs Morgan Rogers
Joshua King xG 0.21César Palacios xG 0.13Alex Iwobi xG 0.19Cole Palmer xG 0.07João Pedro xG 0.26Morgan Rogers xG 0.06
Summary
Antagonist matchup analysis for Fulham vs Chelsea. Most likely scoreline: 0-2. Lambdas derived from 4 home and 5 away individual player duels.
Tactical parity between 4-2-3-1 and 3-4-2-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Away midfield dictates play with ~52% possession expected (Oscar Bobb vs Morgan Rogers). Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.53, Away: 0.76. Home danger zone: LW vs CB. Away danger zone: Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle.
Málaga vs Deportivo
LaLiga · 20260824 · 4-1-4-1 vs 3-4-1-2
Predicted 1-0Winner: MálagaConfidence 0.67λ home/away 1.02 / 0.80Most-likely P 16.4%
Actual vs predicted: result not available yet (upcoming fixture).
Standing & form context
| Metric | Málaga | Deportivo |
|---|
| League position | 18.00 | 8.00 |
| Points per game | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| Attack index | 1.00 | 0.42 |
| Defense (concede) index | 0.42 | 0.84 |
| Form multiplier | 0.95 | 1.05 |
| Standing λ multiplier | 0.71 | 0.68 |
Lambda decomposition (how the goal rates were built)
| Stage | Málaga λ | Deportivo λ |
|---|
| Pre-competitive-floor | 0.664 | 0.797 |
| Pre-calibration | 0.664 | 0.797 |
| Final λ | 1.020 | 0.797 |
competition calibration scale 1.0competition observed total goals 0.0quality gap applied Falsemismatch score pressure applied Falsecompetitive underdog floor applied Truestage discount 1.0
Scoreline distribution & markets
| Top 5 scorelines | P |
|---|
| 1-0 | 16.4% |
| 0-0 | 16.4% |
| 1-1 | 13.4% |
| 0-1 | 12.8% |
| 2-0 | 8.5% |
| Home win | 39.7% |
| Draw | 32.7% |
| Away win | 27.6% |
| Over 2.5 | 27.4% |
| BTTS yes | 35.3% |
Pregame fair line — favorite Málaga (39.7%), fair total 1.82, fair spread 0.22
Projected players vs season baseline
Proj = projected for this match · Season = this season's per-game average from match data · deviation badge compares projected xG to the player's season xG/game.
Málaga — projected line vs season baseline (4-1-4-1)
| Player | Pos | Min | Proj G | Proj xG | Season xG/g | | Proj Sh | Season Sh/g | Proj Rtg | Season Rtg | Rec |
|---|
| Chupete | F | 91 | 0 | 0.15 | 0.02 | 896% | 2 | 0.2 | 73.1 | 14.8 | 4 |
| Joaquín Muñoz | M | 66 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | 1 | 0.0 | 85.5 | 16.8 | 4 |
| Dani Lorenzo | M | 78 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | 2 | 0.0 | 70.9 | 17.5 | 4 |
| Carlos Dotor | M | 66 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | 0 | 0.0 | 7.2 | 18.8 | 4 |
| David Larrubia | M | 89 | 1 | 0.48 | 0.01 | 4537% | 1 | 0.5 | 6.1 | 15.5 | 4 |
| Izan Merino | M | 88 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | 2 | 0.0 | 72.6 | 16.5 | 4 |
| Rafa Garrido | D | 88 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.01 | 1258% | 1 | 0.2 | 6.7 | 17.0 | 4 |
| Einar Galilea | D | 78 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | 0 | 0.0 | 72.9 | 17.0 | 4 |
| Ángel Recio | D | 88 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | 0 | 0.0 | 6.0 | 15.0 | 4 |
| Carlos Puga | D | 71 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | 0 | 0.0 | 74.7 | 16.5 | 4 |
| Alfonso Herrero | G | 88 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | | 0.0 | 81.6 | 19.5 | 4 |
| Team totals | 1 | 1.02 | | 11 | | 50.6 | |
Deportivo — projected line vs season baseline (3-4-1-2)
| Player | Pos | Min | Proj G | Proj xG | Season xG/g | | Proj Sh | Season Sh/g | Proj Rtg | Season Rtg | Rec |
|---|
| Bil Nsongo | F | 90 | 0 | 0.12 | 0.00 | 4669% | 2 | 0.2 | 6.7 | 17.0 | 4 |
| Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang | F | 86 | 0 | 0.30 | 0.24 | ok | 2 | 2.0 | 88.7 | 29.4 | 5 |
| Jonathan Asp Jensen | F | 90 | 0 | 0.20 | 0.19 | ok | 2 | 1.4 | 71.7 | 37.1 | 7 |
| Giacomo Quagliata | D | 88 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | 0 | 0.0 | 75.4 | 16.0 | 4 |
| Mario Soriano | M | 70 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.01 | 371% | 1 | 0.2 | 80.0 | 17.8 | 4 |
| Lorenzo Amatucci | M | 90 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | 2 | 0.0 | 72.0 | 17.8 | 4 |
| Adrià Altimira | D | 90 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | | 0.0 | 87.6 | 17.5 | 4 |
| Bright Ede | D | 88 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.01 | 399% | 1 | 0.2 | 66.9 | 17.2 | 4 |
| Lucas Noubi | D | 88 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | 0 | 0.0 | 72.4 | 16.2 | 4 |
| Ximo Navarro | D | 88 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | 0 | 0.0 | 77.3 | 16.0 | 4 |
| Leo Román | G | 89 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | | 0.0 | 83.6 | 38.7 | 7 |
| Team totals | 0 | 0.80 | | 11 | | 71.1 | |
Antagonist / tactical summary
Midfield is evenly contested — David Larrubia vs Lorenzo Amatucci will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.49, Away: 0.84. Home danger zone: RM vs CB. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle.
Midfield — possession 50.3% / 49.7%, dominance ratio 0.51, key duel: David Larrubia vs Lorenzo Amatucci
Joaquín Muñoz xG 0.12Dani Lorenzo xG 0.10Izan Merino xG 0.10Mario Soriano xG 0.04Lorenzo Amatucci xG 0.12Jonathan Asp Jensen xG 0.16
Summary
Antagonist matchup analysis for Málaga vs Deportivo. Most likely scoreline: 1-0. Lambdas derived from 5 home and 7 away individual player duels.
Tactical parity between 4-1-4-1 and 3-4-1-2. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Midfield is evenly contested — David Larrubia vs Lorenzo Amatucci will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.49, Away: 0.84. Home danger zone: RM vs CB. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle.
Osasuna vs Levante
LaLiga · 20260824 · 4-2-3-1 vs 4-3-3
Predicted 1-1Winner: DrawConfidence 0.72λ home/away 1.22 / 1.10Most-likely P 13.3%
Actual vs predicted: result not available yet (upcoming fixture).
Standing & form context
| Metric | Osasuna | Levante |
|---|
| League position | 11.00 | 19.00 |
| Points per game | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Attack index | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Defense (concede) index | 1.25 | 1.00 |
| Form multiplier | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Standing λ multiplier | 1.10 | 1.00 |
Lambda decomposition (how the goal rates were built)
| Stage | Osasuna λ | Levante λ |
|---|
| Pre-competitive-floor | 1.218 | 1.097 |
| Pre-calibration | 1.218 | 1.097 |
| Final λ | 1.218 | 1.097 |
competition calibration scale 1.0competition observed total goals 0.0quality gap applied Falsemismatch score pressure applied Falsecompetitive underdog floor applied Falsestage discount 1.0
Scoreline distribution & markets
| Top 5 scorelines | P |
|---|
| 1-1 | 13.3% |
| 1-0 | 11.9% |
| 0-1 | 10.7% |
| 0-0 | 10.0% |
| 2-1 | 8.0% |
| Home win | 38.8% |
| Draw | 28.4% |
| Away win | 32.8% |
| Over 2.5 | 40.8% |
| BTTS yes | 47.0% |
Pregame fair line — favorite Osasuna (38.8%), fair total 2.31, fair spread 0.12
Projected players vs season baseline
Proj = projected for this match · Season = this season's per-game average from match data · deviation badge compares projected xG to the player's season xG/game.
Osasuna — projected line vs season baseline (4-2-3-1)
| Player | Pos | Min | Proj G | Proj xG | Season xG/g | | Proj Sh | Season Sh/g | Proj Rtg | Season Rtg | Rec |
|---|
| Ante Budimir | F | 70 | 1 | 0.39 | 0.24 | 60% | 2 | 1.6 | 88.3 | 34.8 | 11 |
| Raúl Moro | M | 36 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | 2 | 0.0 | 82.2 | 21.0 | 6 |
| Aimar Oroz | M | 52 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 100% | 1 | 0.1 | 83.6 | 28.1 | 7 |
| Rubén García | M | 50 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.10 | ok | 2 | 0.7 | 84.4 | 19.0 | 7 |
| Jon Moncayola | M | 76 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 100% | 0 | 0.1 | 85.6 | 28.6 | 7 |
| Iker Muñoz | M | 31 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 2066% | 2 | 0.2 | 77.4 | 10.8 | 6 |
| Abel Bretones | D | 48 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | 0 | 0.0 | 81.1 | 18.3 | 7 |
| Alejandro Catena | D | 88 | 0 | 0.28 | 0.03 | 1017% | 1 | 0.3 | 86.5 | 28.0 | 7 |
| Iñigo Arguibide | D | 90 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | | 0.0 | 83.6 | - | 7 |
| Sergio Herrera | G | 88 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | | 0.0 | 85.4 | 22.5 | 6 |
| Enzo Boyomo | D | 92 | 0 | 0.36 | 0.03 | 1063% | 1 | 0.4 | 84.7 | 27.6 | 7 |
| Team totals | 1 | 1.22 | | 12 | | 83.9 | |
Levante — projected line vs season baseline (4-3-3)
| Player | Pos | Min | Proj G | Proj xG | Season xG/g | | Proj Sh | Season Sh/g | Proj Rtg | Season Rtg | Rec |
|---|
| Jeremy Toljan | D | 53 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | 0 | 0.0 | 79.1 | 36.6 | 7 |
| Mathew Ryan | G | 88 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | | 0.0 | 90.1 | 27.2 | 11 |
| Adrián de la Fuente | D | 89 | 0 | 0.29 | 0.18 | 67% | 1 | 0.9 | 87.8 | 41.6 | 7 |
| Aïssa Mandi | D | 81 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.01 | 495% | 0 | 0.3 | 81.8 | 52.9 | 13 |
| Manuel Sánchez | D | 70 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | 0 | 0.0 | 82.3 | 37.4 | 7 |
| Jon Ander Olasagasti | M | 84 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.13 | 100% | 2 | 0.6 | 85.5 | 39.4 | 7 |
| Roger Brugué | M | 24 | 1 | 0.29 | 0.14 | 114% | 2 | 1.0 | 82.8 | 27.6 | 5 |
| Iván Romero | F | 38 | 0 | 0.20 | 0.04 | 367% | 2 | 0.4 | 76.4 | 36.6 | 7 |
| Víctor García | M | 67 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | 0 | 0.0 | 75.5 | 25.8 | 5 |
| Enzo Bardeli | M | 45 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | 2 | 0.0 | 77.3 | 16.0 | 4 |
| Oriol Rey | M | 66 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | 1 | 0.0 | 79.3 | 18.7 | 7 |
| Team totals | 1 | 1.10 | | 11 | | 81.6 | |
Antagonist / tactical summary
Midfield is evenly contested — Jon Moncayola vs Enzo Bardeli will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.55, Away: 0.75. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle.
Midfield — possession 50.0% / 50.0%, dominance ratio 0.51, key duel: Jon Moncayola vs Enzo Bardeli
Rubén García xG 0.05Iker Muñoz xG 0.04Raúl Moro xG 0.17Iván Romero xG 0.21Enzo Bardeli xG 0.19Roger Brugué xG 0.20
Summary
Antagonist matchup analysis for Osasuna vs Levante. Most likely scoreline: 1-1. Lambdas derived from 5 home and 5 away individual player duels.
Tactical parity between 4-2-3-1 and 4-3-3. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Midfield is evenly contested — Jon Moncayola vs Enzo Bardeli will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.55, Away: 0.75. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle.
Generated 2026-09-04 22:27:55 UTC · Soccer prediction reporting