Valencia vs Real Betis
LaLiga · 20260825 · 5-3-2 vs 4-3-3
Predicted 1-1Winner: DrawConfidence 0.72λ home/away 1.02 / 1.34Most-likely P 13.0%
Actual vs predicted: result not available yet (upcoming fixture).
Standing & form context
| Metric | Valencia | Real Betis |
|---|
| League position | 17.00 | 14.00 |
| Points per game | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Attack index | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Defense (concede) index | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Form multiplier | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Standing λ multiplier | 1.00 | 1.00 |
Lambda decomposition (how the goal rates were built)
| Stage | Valencia λ | Real Betis λ |
|---|
| Pre-competitive-floor | 0.755 | 1.341 |
| Pre-calibration | 0.755 | 1.341 |
| Final λ | 1.020 | 1.341 |
competition calibration scale 1.0competition observed total goals 0.0quality gap applied Truemismatch score pressure applied Falsecompetitive underdog floor applied Truestage discount 1.0
Scoreline distribution & markets
| Top 5 scorelines | P |
|---|
| 1-1 | 13.0% |
| 0-1 | 12.5% |
| 0-0 | 9.5% |
| 1-0 | 9.5% |
| 1-2 | 8.6% |
| Home win | 28.3% |
| Draw | 27.7% |
| Away win | 44.0% |
| Over 2.5 | 42.0% |
| BTTS yes | 47.3% |
Pregame fair line — favorite Real Betis (44.0%), fair total 2.36, fair spread -0.32
Projected players vs season baseline
Proj = projected for this match · Season = this season's per-game average from match data · deviation badge compares projected xG to the player's season xG/game.
Valencia — projected line vs season baseline (5-3-2)
| Player | Pos | Min | Proj G | Proj xG | Season xG/g | | Proj Sh | Season Sh/g | Proj Rtg | Season Rtg | Rec |
|---|
| Arnaut Danjuma | F | 90 | 0 | 0.29 | - | n/a | 2 | 0.0 | 81.7 | - | 5 |
| Ryunosuke Sato | M | 90 | 0 | 0.15 | - | n/a | 1 | 1.4 | 88.7 | 29.1 | 8 |
| Filip Ugrinić | M | 63 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 100% | 2 | 0.3 | 81.7 | 28.4 | 7 |
| Javier Guerra | M | 90 | 0 | 0.16 | 0.22 | ok | 1 | 1.6 | 67.2 | 34.7 | 7 |
| José Luis Gayà | D | 62 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | 0 | 0.0 | 85.9 | 14.2 | 5 |
| Mouctar Diakhaby | D | 90 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | | - | 82.6 | - | 3 |
| Pepelu | M | 38 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 100% | 1 | 0.1 | 83.6 | 28.7 | 7 |
| César Tárrega | D | 90 | 0 | 0.28 | 0.03 | 964% | 1 | 0.3 | 81.1 | 27.0 | 7 |
| Jesús Vázquez | D | 65 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | 0 | 0.0 | 76.6 | 29.3 | 7 |
| Stole Dimitrievski | G | 88 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | | 0.0 | 85.5 | 19.1 | 14 |
| Guido Rodríguez | M | 70 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 100% | 1 | 0.4 | 84.1 | 33.3 | 7 |
| Team totals | 1 | 1.02 | | 10 | | 81.7 | |
Real Betis — projected line vs season baseline (4-3-3)
| Player | Pos | Min | Proj G | Proj xG | Season xG/g | | Proj Sh | Season Sh/g | Proj Rtg | Season Rtg | Rec |
|---|
| Pablo Fornals | M | 73 | 0 | 0.20 | 0.04 | 343% | 2 | 0.7 | 86.0 | 39.6 | 11 |
| Facundo Bernal | M | 48 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 100% | 0 | 0.2 | 82.7 | 20.5 | 13 |
| Fran García | D | 59 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | 0 | 0.0 | 85.6 | 21.8 | 12 |
| Natan | D | 74 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | 0 | 0.0 | 85.0 | 41.0 | 10 |
| Diego Llorente | D | 87 | 0 | 0.20 | 0.03 | 618% | 1 | 0.4 | 86.7 | 32.9 | 8 |
| Angel Ortiz | D | 90 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | | 0.0 | 74.6 | - | 4 |
| Álvaro Valles | G | 89 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | | 0.0 | 85.6 | 11.9 | 11 |
| Marc Roca | M | 55 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 100% | 2 | 0.4 | 84.6 | 31.0 | 11 |
| Antony | M | 95 | 0 | 0.24 | 0.19 | ok | 4 | 2.1 | 88.7 | 46.8 | 11 |
| Rodrigo Riquelme | M | 12 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 100% | 1 | 0.1 | 82.3 | 23.7 | 11 |
| Cucho Hernández | F | 77 | 1 | 0.50 | 0.26 | 97% | 2 | 1.7 | 86.9 | 34.8 | 14 |
| Team totals | 1 | 1.34 | | 15 | | 84.4 | |
Antagonist / tactical summary
Midfield is evenly contested — Javier Guerra vs Antony will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.37, Away: 0.73. Home danger zone: Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest. Away danger zone: LW vs RWB + CB.
Midfield — possession 49.5% / 50.5%, dominance ratio 0.49, key duel: Javier Guerra vs Antony
Arnaut Danjuma xG 0.09José Luis Gayà xG 0.05Pepelu xG 0.06Cucho Hernández xG 0.27Rodrigo Riquelme xG 0.15Marc Roca xG 0.20
Summary
Antagonist matchup analysis for Valencia vs Real Betis. Most likely scoreline: 1-1. Lambdas derived from 5 home and 4 away individual player duels.
Tactical parity between 5-3-2 and 4-3-3. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Midfield is evenly contested — Javier Guerra vs Antony will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.37, Away: 0.73. Home danger zone: Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest. Away danger zone: LW vs RWB + CB.