Real Madrid vs Real Sociedad
LaLiga · 20260826 · 4-2-3-1 vs 4-4-2
Predicted 4-0Winner: Real MadridConfidence 0.95λ home/away 4.80 / 0.70Most-likely P 9.2%
Actual vs predicted: result not available yet (upcoming fixture).
Standing & form context
| Metric | Real Madrid | Real Sociedad |
|---|
| League position | 15.00 | 16.00 |
| Points per game | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Attack index | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Defense (concede) index | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Form multiplier | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Standing λ multiplier | 1.00 | 1.00 |
Lambda decomposition (how the goal rates were built)
| Stage | Real Madrid λ | Real Sociedad λ |
|---|
| Pre-mismatch | 4.547 | 0.744 |
| Pre-calibration | 4.547 | 0.744 |
| Final λ | 4.800 | 0.703 |
competition calibration scale 1.0competition observed total goals 0.0quality gap applied Truemismatch score pressure applied Truecompetitive underdog floor applied Falsestage discount 1.0
Scoreline distribution & markets
| Top 5 scorelines | P |
|---|
| 4-0 | 9.2% |
| 5-0 | 8.9% |
| 3-0 | 7.7% |
| 6-0 | 7.1% |
| 4-1 | 6.5% |
| Home win | 94.9% |
| Draw | 3.6% |
| Away win | 1.5% |
| Over 2.5 | 91.0% |
| BTTS yes | 50.1% |
Pregame fair line — favorite Real Madrid (94.9%), fair total 5.50, fair spread 4.10
Projected players vs season baseline
Proj = projected for this match · Season = this season's per-game average from match data · deviation badge compares projected xG to the player's season xG/game.
Real Madrid — projected line vs season baseline (4-2-3-1)
| Player | Pos | Min | Proj G | Proj xG | Season xG/g | | Proj Sh | Season Sh/g | Proj Rtg | Season Rtg | Rec |
|---|
| Kylian Mbappé | F | 88 | 1 | 1.63 | 0.55 | 199% | 3 | 3.5 | 99.1 | 57.6 | 19 |
| Jude Bellingham | M | 76 | 1 | 0.85 | 0.18 | 379% | 1 | 1.1 | 98.3 | 57.3 | 16 |
| Yan Diomande | F | 95 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.07 | 259% | 2 | 0.6 | 73.5 | 35.9 | 14 |
| Federico Valverde | M | 94 | 1 | 0.20 | 0.18 | ok | 2 | 1.5 | 96.5 | 50.0 | 13 |
| Bernardo Silva | M | 50 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 100% | 1 | 0.5 | 90.8 | 39.9 | 16 |
| Marc Cucurella | D | 95 | 0 | 0.29 | 0.02 | 1217% | 0 | 0.2 | 91.5 | 46.3 | 16 |
| Dean Huijsen | D | 78 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | 0 | 0.0 | 89.6 | 34.6 | 10 |
| Ibrahima Konaté | D | 82 | 0 | 0.29 | 0.03 | 1022% | 1 | 0.3 | 93.2 | 28.1 | 19 |
| Trent Alexander-Arnold | D | 81 | 0 | 0.15 | 0.02 | 523% | 1 | 0.6 | 93.8 | 48.6 | 10 |
| Thibaut Courtois | G | 86 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | | 0.0 | 96.0 | 46.9 | 17 |
| Vinícius Júnior | F | 95 | 1 | 1.14 | 0.55 | 106% | 2 | 2.6 | 94.0 | 53.7 | 17 |
| Team totals | 4 | 4.80 | | 13 | | 92.4 | |
Real Sociedad — projected line vs season baseline (4-4-2)
| Player | Pos | Min | Proj G | Proj xG | Season xG/g | | Proj Sh | Season Sh/g | Proj Rtg | Season Rtg | Rec |
|---|
| Carlos Soler | M | 61 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 100% | 1 | 0.2 | 83.6 | 32.2 | 6 |
| Arsen Zakharyan | M | 57 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | 0 | 0.0 | 80.7 | 13.2 | 5 |
| Luka Sučić | M | 58 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.05 | ok | 1 | 0.5 | 84.5 | 26.3 | 10 |
| Yangel Herrera | M | 83 | 0 | 0.03 | - | n/a | 1 | 0.0 | 87.8 | 23.5 | 6 |
| Takefusa Kubo | M | 59 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.01 | 720% | 1 | 0.2 | 88.4 | 11.8 | 11 |
| Sergio Gómez | D | 81 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 100% | 0 | 0.2 | 86.1 | 35.0 | 6 |
| Igor Zubeldia | D | 63 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | 0 | 0.0 | 85.7 | 33.2 | 6 |
| Jon Martin | D | 95 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.01 | 438% | 1 | 0.2 | 74.8 | 23.0 | 6 |
| Jon Aramburu | D | 80 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 282% | 1 | 0.2 | 83.9 | 33.0 | 6 |
| Álex Remiro | G | 90 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | | 0.0 | 89.6 | 26.2 | 5 |
| Orri Óskarsson | F | 81 | 0 | 0.39 | 0.29 | 31% | 2 | 1.4 | 82.2 | 31.8 | 5 |
| Team totals | 0 | 0.70 | | 9 | | 84.3 | |
Antagonist / tactical summary
Home midfield dominates with ~53% possession expected (Jude Bellingham vs Takefusa Kubo). Total antagonist xG — Home: 1.97, Away: 0.67. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle.
Midfield — possession 52.8% / 47.2%, dominance ratio 0.58, key duel: Jude Bellingham vs Takefusa Kubo
Federico Valverde xG 0.12Yan Diomande xG 0.12Vinícius Júnior xG 0.52Orri Óskarsson xG 0.47Yangel Herrera xG 0.03Carlos Soler xG 0.12
Summary
Antagonist matchup analysis for Real Madrid vs Real Sociedad. Most likely scoreline: 4-0. Lambdas derived from 5 home and 4 away individual player duels.
4-2-3-1 creates structural superiority against 4-4-2. Home team should exploit wider spaces and numerical advantages in transition. Home midfield dominates with ~53% possession expected (Jude Bellingham vs Takefusa Kubo). Total antagonist xG — Home: 1.97, Away: 0.67. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle.