Soccer predictions: actual data vs predicted data
Slate 20260827 · 2 match(es)
How to read this report. Each match shows the model's headline prediction, the stage-by-stage lambda (goal-rate) build, both teams' standing/form inputs, and every starter's projected line next to their real season baseline. A moderate / large deviation badge flags a projection that strays far from the player's season form — a quick way to spot when the inputs look right but a projection does not. When the real result is known an actual-vs-predicted banner appears.
All matches overview
| Match | Score | Winner | H / D / A | O2.5 | BTTS | Conf | λ H/A | Actual | Result |
|---|
| Barcelona vs Athletic Club LaLiga | 1-1 | Draw | 56.8% / 22.5% / 20.8% | 56.1% | 55.2% | 0.78 | 1.88 / 1.05 | - | pending |
| Celta vs Osasuna LaLiga | 0-0 | Draw | 32.4% / 31.4% / 36.2% | 31.5% | 39.3% | 0.69 | 0.95 / 1.02 | - | pending |
Match detail
Barcelona vs Athletic Club
LaLiga · 20260827 · 3-5-2 vs 4-2-3-1
Predicted 1-1Winner: DrawConfidence 0.78λ home/away 1.88 / 1.05Most-likely P 10.6%
Actual vs predicted: result not available yet (upcoming fixture).
Standing & form context
| Metric | Barcelona | Athletic Club |
|---|
| League position | 12.00 | 10.00 |
| Points per game | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Attack index | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Defense (concede) index | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Form multiplier | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Standing λ multiplier | 1.00 | 1.00 |
Lambda decomposition (how the goal rates were built)
| Stage | Barcelona λ | Athletic Club λ |
|---|
| Pre-mismatch | 1.630 | 0.673 |
| Pre-competitive-floor | 1.882 | 0.650 |
| Pre-calibration | 1.630 | 0.673 |
| Final λ | 1.882 | 1.050 |
competition calibration scale 1.0competition observed total goals 0.0quality gap applied Truemismatch score pressure applied Truecompetitive underdog floor applied Truestage discount 1.0
Scoreline distribution & markets
| Top 5 scorelines | P |
|---|
| 1-1 | 10.6% |
| 1-0 | 10.0% |
| 2-1 | 9.9% |
| 2-0 | 9.4% |
| 3-1 | 6.2% |
| Home win | 56.8% |
| Draw | 22.5% |
| Away win | 20.8% |
| Over 2.5 | 56.1% |
| BTTS yes | 55.2% |
Pregame fair line — favorite Barcelona (56.8%), fair total 2.93, fair spread 0.83
Projected players vs season baseline
Proj = projected for this match · Season = this season's per-game average from match data · deviation badge compares projected xG to the player's season xG/game.
Barcelona — projected line vs season baseline (3-5-2)
| Player | Pos | Min | Proj G | Proj xG | Season xG/g | | Proj Sh | Season Sh/g | Proj Rtg | Season Rtg | Rec |
|---|
| Joan García | G | 95 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | | 0.0 | 90.3 | 19.2 | 18 |
| Pau Cubarsí | D | 94 | 0 | 0.16 | 0.01 | 1499% | 0 | 0.2 | 90.1 | 43.7 | 18 |
| Jules Koundé | D | 88 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.01 | 1469% | 0 | 0.2 | 94.5 | 47.4 | 17 |
| Alejandro Balde | D | 61 | 0 | 0.42 | 0.04 | 1097% | 1 | 0.2 | 86.0 | 28.4 | 9 |
| Lamine Yamal | M | 95 | 0 | 0.31 | 0.25 | ok | 1 | 2.0 | 96.8 | 45.9 | 18 |
| Pedri | M | 74 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 100% | 2 | 0.2 | 96.8 | 51.7 | 18 |
| Fermín López | M | 64 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.14 | 100% | 1 | 0.8 | 95.3 | 37.8 | 9 |
| Raphinha | M | 95 | 1 | 0.64 | 0.12 | 415% | 3 | 1.0 | 96.7 | 28.3 | 14 |
| Dani Olmo | M | 64 | 0 | 0.13 | 0.07 | 92% | 1 | 0.9 | 92.7 | 50.9 | 19 |
| Anthony Gordon | F | 49 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.04 | 82% | 3 | 0.3 | 90.4 | 22.7 | 21 |
| Karim Adeyemi | F | 16 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | 0 | 0.0 | 88.1 | 22.2 | 6 |
| Team totals | 1 | 1.88 | | 12 | | 92.5 | |
Athletic Club — projected line vs season baseline (4-2-3-1)
| Player | Pos | Min | Proj G | Proj xG | Season xG/g | | Proj Sh | Season Sh/g | Proj Rtg | Season Rtg | Rec |
|---|
| Unai Simón | G | 94 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | | 0.0 | 91.9 | 41.5 | 15 |
| Dani Vivian | D | 70 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.01 | 886% | 1 | 0.2 | 83.5 | 25.4 | 5 |
| Aymeric Laporte | D | 90 | 0 | 0.18 | 0.02 | 801% | 1 | 0.4 | 89.1 | 46.4 | 14 |
| Aitor Paredes | D | 90 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | 0 | 0.0 | 83.6 | 8.0 | 7 |
| Jesús Areso | D | 70 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | 0 | 0.0 | 86.7 | 9.7 | 7 |
| Nico Williams | M | 90 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.00 | 5745% | 2 | 0.1 | 93.4 | 23.3 | 14 |
| Mikel Jauregizar | M | 65 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.03 | 206% | 1 | 0.7 | 84.7 | 26.9 | 7 |
| Oihan Sancet | M | 90 | 0 | 0.11 | - | n/a | 1 | - | 84.1 | - | 4 |
| Beñat Prados | M | 90 | 0 | 0.10 | - | n/a | 2 | 0.0 | 85.0 | - | 4 |
| Peio Canales | M | 90 | 0 | 0.10 | - | n/a | 1 | - | 6.8 | - | 3 |
| Gorka Guruzeta | F | 60 | 1 | 0.24 | 0.09 | 158% | 2 | 1.4 | 83.3 | 28.3 | 7 |
| Team totals | 1 | 1.05 | | 11 | | 79.3 | |
Antagonist / tactical summary
Home midfield dominates with ~53% possession expected (Lamine Yamal vs Nico Williams). Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.51, Away: 0.29. Home danger zone: Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle.
Midfield — possession 52.8% / 47.2%, dominance ratio 0.57, key duel: Lamine Yamal vs Nico Williams
Anthony Gordon xG 0.00Lamine Yamal xG 0.16Dani Olmo xG 0.06Beñat Prados xG 0.04Peio Canales xG 0.04Nico Williams xG 0.04
Summary
Antagonist matchup analysis for Barcelona vs Athletic Club. Most likely scoreline: 1-1. Lambdas derived from 5 home and 5 away individual player duels.
Tactical parity between 3-5-2 and 4-2-3-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Home midfield dominates with ~53% possession expected (Lamine Yamal vs Nico Williams). Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.51, Away: 0.29. Home danger zone: Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle.
Celta vs Osasuna
LaLiga · 20260827 · 3-5-2 vs 4-2-3-1
Predicted 0-0Winner: DrawConfidence 0.69λ home/away 0.95 / 1.02Most-likely P 14.1%
Actual vs predicted: result not available yet (upcoming fixture).
Standing & form context
| Metric | Celta | Osasuna |
|---|
| League position | 13.00 | 11.00 |
| Points per game | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Attack index | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Defense (concede) index | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Form multiplier | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Standing λ multiplier | 1.00 | 1.00 |
Lambda decomposition (how the goal rates were built)
| Stage | Celta λ | Osasuna λ |
|---|
| Pre-competitive-floor | 0.949 | 0.856 |
| Pre-calibration | 0.949 | 0.856 |
| Final λ | 0.949 | 1.020 |
competition calibration scale 1.0competition observed total goals 0.0quality gap applied Truemismatch score pressure applied Falsecompetitive underdog floor applied Truestage discount 1.0
Scoreline distribution & markets
| Top 5 scorelines | P |
|---|
| 0-0 | 14.1% |
| 0-1 | 14.1% |
| 1-1 | 13.7% |
| 1-0 | 13.1% |
| 0-2 | 7.3% |
| Home win | 32.4% |
| Draw | 31.4% |
| Away win | 36.2% |
| Over 2.5 | 31.5% |
| BTTS yes | 39.3% |
Pregame fair line — favorite Osasuna (36.2%), fair total 1.97, fair spread -0.07
Projected players vs season baseline
Proj = projected for this match · Season = this season's per-game average from match data · deviation badge compares projected xG to the player's season xG/game.
Celta — projected line vs season baseline (3-5-2)
| Player | Pos | Min | Proj G | Proj xG | Season xG/g | | Proj Sh | Season Sh/g | Proj Rtg | Season Rtg | Rec |
|---|
| Ionuț Radu | G | 90 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | | 0.0 | 80.7 | 44.9 | 12 |
| Javi Rodríguez | D | 86 | 0 | 0.32 | 0.01 | 3502% | 0 | 0.3 | 82.9 | 46.7 | 10 |
| Abdoulaye Faye | D | 75 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | 0 | 0.0 | 74.4 | 32.5 | 4 |
| Carl Starfelt | D | 62 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | 0 | 0.1 | 84.5 | 28.1 | 12 |
| Williot Swedberg | M | 36 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 100% | 1 | 0.5 | 81.2 | 44.2 | 11 |
| Miguel Román | M | 90 | 0 | 0.52 | - | n/a | 1 | - | 88.9 | - | 3 |
| Ilaix Moriba | M | 84 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 100% | 1 | 0.1 | 85.0 | 51.8 | 8 |
| Sergio Carreira | M | 91 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 100% | 2 | 0.5 | 85.0 | 47.4 | 10 |
| Hugo Álvarez | M | 28 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 100% | 1 | 0.5 | 82.6 | 42.1 | 8 |
| Ferran Jutglà | F | 52 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.21 | 75% | 2 | 1.0 | 88.1 | 48.6 | 10 |
| Jones El-Abdellaoui | F | 35 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.08 | 55% | 1 | 0.3 | 70.4 | 22.1 | 9 |
| Team totals | 0 | 0.95 | | 9 | | 82.2 | |
Osasuna — projected line vs season baseline (4-2-3-1)
| Player | Pos | Min | Proj G | Proj xG | Season xG/g | | Proj Sh | Season Sh/g | Proj Rtg | Season Rtg | Rec |
|---|
| Sergio Herrera | G | 88 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | | 0.0 | 85.4 | 22.5 | 6 |
| Enzo Boyomo | D | 92 | 0 | 0.34 | 0.03 | 1002% | 1 | 0.4 | 84.7 | 27.6 | 7 |
| Abel Bretones | D | 48 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | 0 | 0.0 | 81.1 | 18.3 | 7 |
| Jorge Herrando | D | 67 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | 0 | 0.0 | 86.3 | 9.1 | 7 |
| Valentin Rosier | D | 84 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.03 | 239% | 2 | 0.7 | 84.0 | 29.9 | 7 |
| Jon Moncayola | M | 76 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 100% | 1 | 0.1 | 85.6 | 28.6 | 7 |
| Aimar Oroz | M | 52 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 100% | 2 | 0.1 | 83.6 | 28.1 | 7 |
| Jonathan Dubasin | M | 90 | 0 | 0.07 | - | n/a | 2 | - | 79.7 | - | 4 |
| Raúl Moro | M | 36 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | 2 | 0.0 | 82.2 | 21.0 | 6 |
| Lucas Torró | M | 65 | 0 | 0.26 | 0.05 | 396% | 3 | 1.1 | 84.8 | 29.1 | 7 |
| Raúl García de Haro | F | 50 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.07 | 65% | 2 | 0.9 | 84.5 | 28.6 | 7 |
| Team totals | 0 | 1.02 | | 16 | | 83.8 | |
Antagonist / tactical summary
Midfield is evenly contested — Williot Swedberg vs Jon Moncayola will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.31, Away: 0.55. Home danger zone: Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel. Away danger zone: Left Wing vs Right Wingback — Compact Flank.
Midfield — possession 51.6% / 48.4%, dominance ratio 0.54, key duel: Williot Swedberg vs Jon Moncayola
Ferran Jutglà xG 0.01Miguel Román xG 0.05Hugo Álvarez xG 0.07Aimar Oroz xG 0.21Raúl Moro xG 0.17Jonathan Dubasin xG 0.04
Summary
Antagonist matchup analysis for Celta vs Osasuna. Most likely scoreline: 0-0. Lambdas derived from 5 home and 5 away individual player duels.
Tactical parity between 3-5-2 and 4-2-3-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Midfield is evenly contested — Williot Swedberg vs Jon Moncayola will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.31, Away: 0.55. Home danger zone: Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel. Away danger zone: Left Wing vs Right Wingback — Compact Flank.
Generated 2026-09-04 22:27:55 UTC · Soccer prediction reporting