Soccer predictions: actual data vs predicted data
Slate 20260828 · 3 match(es)
How to read this report. Each match shows the model's headline prediction, the stage-by-stage lambda (goal-rate) build, both teams' standing/form inputs, and every starter's projected line next to their real season baseline. A moderate / large deviation badge flags a projection that strays far from the player's season form — a quick way to spot when the inputs look right but a projection does not. When the real result is known an actual-vs-predicted banner appears.
All matches overview
Match detail
R. Racing Club vs Elche
LaLiga · 20260828 · 3-5-2 vs 3-5-2
Predicted 1-1Winner: DrawConfidence 0.71λ home/away 1.25 / 1.02Most-likely P 13.3%
Actual vs predicted: result not available yet (upcoming fixture).
Standing & form context
| Metric | R. Racing Club | Elche |
|---|
| League position | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| Points per game | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Attack index | 0.84 | 0.42 |
| Defense (concede) index | 0.42 | 0.84 |
| Form multiplier | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Standing λ multiplier | 0.67 | 0.67 |
Lambda decomposition (how the goal rates were built)
| Stage | R. Racing Club λ | Elche λ |
|---|
| Pre-competitive-floor | 1.250 | 0.662 |
| Pre-calibration | 1.250 | 0.662 |
| Final λ | 1.250 | 1.020 |
competition calibration scale 1.0competition observed total goals 0.0quality gap applied Falsemismatch score pressure applied Falsecompetitive underdog floor applied Truestage discount 1.0
Scoreline distribution & markets
| Top 5 scorelines | P |
|---|
| 1-1 | 13.3% |
| 1-0 | 12.8% |
| 0-0 | 10.4% |
| 0-1 | 10.4% |
| 2-1 | 8.2% |
| Home win | 41.4% |
| Draw | 28.6% |
| Away win | 30.0% |
| Over 2.5 | 39.6% |
| BTTS yes | 45.7% |
Pregame fair line — favorite R. Racing Club (41.4%), fair total 2.27, fair spread 0.23
Projected players vs season baseline
Proj = projected for this match · Season = this season's per-game average from match data · deviation badge compares projected xG to the player's season xG/game.
R. Racing Club — projected line vs season baseline (3-5-2)
| Player | Pos | Min | Proj G | Proj xG | Season xG/g | | Proj Sh | Season Sh/g | Proj Rtg | Season Rtg | Rec |
|---|
| Julen Agirrezabala | G | 91 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | | 0.0 | 87.1 | 9.3 | 7 |
| Jorge Salinas | D | 90 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | 0 | 0.0 | 63.6 | 17.2 | 4 |
| Facundo González | D | 13 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | 0 | 0.0 | 72.6 | 16.8 | 4 |
| Pablo Ramón | D | 76 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | 0 | 0.0 | 71.5 | 16.5 | 4 |
| Gustavo Puerta | M | 91 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.05 | 55% | 2 | 1.6 | 75.5 | 40.0 | 9 |
| Andrés Martín | M | 90 | 1 | 0.56 | 0.28 | 98% | 2 | 1.5 | 81.4 | 18.8 | 4 |
| Iñigo Vicente | M | 90 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | 0 | 0.0 | 82.7 | 20.0 | 4 |
| Iván Martín | M | 78 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 100% | 1 | 0.2 | 84.1 | 36.0 | 6 |
| Sergio Canales | M | 76 | 0 | 0.13 | 0.03 | 357% | 1 | 0.6 | 89.6 | 13.4 | 5 |
| Yassir Zabiri | F | 16 | 0 | 0.21 | - | n/a | 2 | 0.0 | 92.5 | 18.4 | 7 |
| Giorgi Guliashvili | F | 14 | 0 | 0.19 | - | n/a | 2 | - | 81.4 | - | 3 |
| Team totals | 1 | 1.25 | | 11 | | 80.2 | |
Elche — projected line vs season baseline (3-5-2)
| Player | Pos | Min | Proj G | Proj xG | Season xG/g | | Proj Sh | Season Sh/g | Proj Rtg | Season Rtg | Rec |
|---|
| Alejandro Iturbe | G | 90 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | | 0.0 | 87.7 | - | 4 |
| David Affengruber | D | 93 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.01 | 719% | 1 | 0.3 | 82.3 | 25.3 | 11 |
| Buba Sangaré | D | 56 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | 0 | 0.0 | 69.3 | 42.5 | 6 |
| Víctor Chust | D | 73 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.01 | 796% | 0 | 0.2 | 77.8 | 48.2 | 6 |
| Facundo Buonanotte | M | 12 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.01 | 1190% | 2 | 0.2 | 82.0 | 17.2 | 4 |
| Germán Valera | M | 89 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.03 | 229% | 2 | 0.5 | 90.8 | 45.5 | 6 |
| Martim Neto | M | 59 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | 1 | 0.0 | 76.5 | 10.7 | 6 |
| Marc Aguado | M | 87 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 100% | 0 | 0.2 | 76.7 | 46.8 | 6 |
| Lucas Cepeda | M | 77 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.01 | 335% | 1 | 0.2 | 79.2 | 21.3 | 6 |
| Ezequiel Ponce | F | 56 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 94% | 2 | 0.3 | 79.3 | 19.1 | 7 |
| Fernando Niño | F | 68 | 1 | 0.47 | 0.15 | 206% | 2 | 0.3 | 6.3 | 21.3 | 3 |
| Team totals | 1 | 1.02 | | 13 | | 73.4 | |
Antagonist / tactical summary
Midfield is evenly contested — Gustavo Puerta vs Facundo Buonanotte will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 1.37, Away: 0.52. Home danger zone: Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle.
Midfield — possession 50.9% / 49.1%, dominance ratio 0.52, key duel: Gustavo Puerta vs Facundo Buonanotte
Iván Martín xG 0.08Gustavo Puerta xG 0.09Andrés Martín xG 0.64Martim Neto xG 0.08Germán Valera xG 0.07Facundo Buonanotte xG 0.05
Summary
Antagonist matchup analysis for R. Racing Club vs Elche. Most likely scoreline: 1-1. Lambdas derived from 6 home and 6 away individual player duels.
Tactical parity between 3-5-2 and 3-5-2. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Midfield is evenly contested — Gustavo Puerta vs Facundo Buonanotte will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 1.37, Away: 0.52. Home danger zone: Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle.
Crystal Palace vs Man City
Premier League · 20260828 · 3-4-2-1 vs 4-2-3-1
Predicted 0-2Winner: Man CityConfidence 0.86λ home/away 0.85 / 2.77Most-likely P 10.2%
Actual vs predicted: result not available yet (upcoming fixture).
Standing & form context
| Metric | Crystal Palace | Man City |
|---|
| League position | 8.00 | 15.00 |
| Points per game | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Attack index | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Defense (concede) index | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Form multiplier | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Standing λ multiplier | 1.00 | 1.00 |
Lambda decomposition (how the goal rates were built)
| Stage | Crystal Palace λ | Man City λ |
|---|
| Pre-mismatch | 0.879 | 2.524 |
| Pre-calibration | 0.676 | 2.404 |
| Final λ | 0.855 | 2.770 |
competition calibration scale 1.0competition observed total goals 0.0quality gap applied Truemismatch score pressure applied Truecompetitive underdog floor applied Falsestage discount 1.0
Scoreline distribution & markets
| Top 5 scorelines | P |
|---|
| 0-2 | 10.2% |
| 0-3 | 9.4% |
| 1-2 | 8.8% |
| 1-3 | 8.1% |
| 0-1 | 7.4% |
| Home win | 8.9% |
| Draw | 13.9% |
| Away win | 77.2% |
| Over 2.5 | 70.2% |
| BTTS yes | 53.9% |
Pregame fair line — favorite Man City (77.2%), fair total 3.62, fair spread -1.92
Projected players vs season baseline
Proj = projected for this match · Season = this season's per-game average from match data · deviation badge compares projected xG to the player's season xG/game.
Crystal Palace — projected line vs season baseline (3-4-2-1)
| Player | Pos | Min | Proj G | Proj xG | Season xG/g | | Proj Sh | Season Sh/g | Proj Rtg | Season Rtg | Rec |
|---|
| Dean Henderson | G | 95 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | | 0.0 | 87.8 | 22.6 | 15 |
| Jaydee Canvot | D | 95 | 0 | 0.18 | 0.04 | 313% | 1 | 0.3 | 76.7 | 27.4 | 7 |
| Chris Richards | D | 88 | 0 | 0.14 | 0.06 | 131% | 1 | 0.5 | 84.1 | 42.7 | 11 |
| Chadi Riad | D | 90 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.02 | 147% | 1 | 0.2 | 79.1 | 25.5 | 13 |
| Adam Wharton | M | 63 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.03 | 169% | 2 | 0.9 | 86.8 | 41.3 | 7 |
| Anan Khalaili | M | 81 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.04 | 47% | 1 | 1.0 | 80.6 | 42.6 | 7 |
| Tyrick Mitchell | M | 94 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.07 | ok | 1 | 0.7 | 85.7 | 39.7 | 7 |
| Daniel Muñoz | M | 79 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.06 | 41% | 1 | 0.4 | 88.3 | 38.4 | 15 |
| Ismaïla Sarr | F | 73 | 0 | 0.17 | 0.30 | 44% | 2 | 1.6 | 86.7 | 37.9 | 13 |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen | F | 59 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.11 | 32% | 2 | 0.6 | 84.9 | 21.6 | 14 |
| Jean-Philippe Mateta | F | 24 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.14 | 96% | 1 | 0.4 | 88.9 | 31.2 | 15 |
| Team totals | 0 | 0.85 | | 13 | | 84.5 | |
Man City — projected line vs season baseline (4-2-3-1)
| Player | Pos | Min | Proj G | Proj xG | Season xG/g | | Proj Sh | Season Sh/g | Proj Rtg | Season Rtg | Rec |
|---|
| Gianluigi Donnarumma | G | 95 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | | 0.0 | 96.6 | 43.3 | 10 |
| Nico O'Reilly | D | 80 | 0 | 0.48 | 0.12 | 300% | 1 | 0.7 | 80.1 | 37.8 | 15 |
| Marc Guéhi | D | 88 | 0 | 0.23 | 0.02 | 911% | 0 | 0.2 | 90.0 | 53.1 | 16 |
| Joško Gvardiol | D | 44 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.03 | 857% | 0 | 0.2 | 91.2 | 39.3 | 10 |
| Rúben Dias | D | 92 | 0 | 0.34 | 0.01 | 2672% | 0 | 0.1 | 93.9 | 32.5 | 15 |
| Elliot Anderson | M | 89 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 100% | 1 | 1.0 | 88.1 | 57.3 | 18 |
| Rayan Cherki | M | 34 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 100% | 1 | 0.6 | 88.3 | 49.0 | 18 |
| Antoine Semenyo | M | 88 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.06 | 47% | 2 | 1.0 | 87.1 | 48.0 | 14 |
| Jérémy Doku | M | 92 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.04 | 109% | 2 | 0.8 | 87.7 | 42.8 | 17 |
| Phil Foden | M | 54 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 100% | 2 | 0.3 | 92.9 | 32.1 | 9 |
| Erling Haaland | F | 95 | 2 | 1.24 | 0.46 | 169% | 3 | 2.1 | 98.7 | 40.1 | 15 |
| Team totals | 2 | 2.77 | | 13 | | 90.4 | |
Antagonist / tactical summary
Midfield is evenly contested — Adam Wharton vs Elliot Anderson will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.74, Away: 1.15. Home danger zone: Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle.
Midfield — possession 48.5% / 51.5%, dominance ratio 0.44, key duel: Adam Wharton vs Elliot Anderson
Jørgen Strand Larsen xG 0.14Ismaïla Sarr xG 0.30Anan Khalaili xG 0.09Antoine Semenyo xG 0.06Jérémy Doku xG 0.05Phil Foden xG 0.31
Summary
Antagonist matchup analysis for Crystal Palace vs Man City. Most likely scoreline: 0-2. Lambdas derived from 5 home and 4 away individual player duels.
Tactical parity between 3-4-2-1 and 4-2-3-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Midfield is evenly contested — Adam Wharton vs Elliot Anderson will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.74, Away: 1.15. Home danger zone: Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle.
Alavés vs Villarreal
LaLiga · 20260828 · 3-5-2 vs 5-4-1
Predicted 1-1Winner: DrawConfidence 0.76λ home/away 1.05 / 1.71Most-likely P 11.4%
Actual vs predicted: result not available yet (upcoming fixture).
Standing & form context
| Metric | Alavés | Villarreal |
|---|
| League position | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| Points per game | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| Attack index | 1.67 | 0.84 |
| Defense (concede) index | 0.84 | 0.42 |
| Form multiplier | 1.05 | 0.95 |
| Standing λ multiplier | 1.15 | 0.66 |
Lambda decomposition (how the goal rates were built)
| Stage | Alavés λ | Villarreal λ |
|---|
| Pre-mismatch | 0.671 | 1.553 |
| Pre-competitive-floor | 0.651 | 1.714 |
| Pre-calibration | 0.671 | 1.553 |
| Final λ | 1.050 | 1.714 |
competition calibration scale 1.0competition observed total goals 0.0quality gap applied Truemismatch score pressure applied Truecompetitive underdog floor applied Truestage discount 1.0
Scoreline distribution & markets
| Top 5 scorelines | P |
|---|
| 1-1 | 11.4% |
| 0-1 | 10.7% |
| 1-2 | 9.7% |
| 0-2 | 9.3% |
| 1-0 | 6.5% |
| Home win | 23.1% |
| Draw | 24.1% |
| Away win | 52.8% |
| Over 2.5 | 52.2% |
| BTTS yes | 53.4% |
Pregame fair line — favorite Villarreal (52.8%), fair total 2.76, fair spread -0.66
Projected players vs season baseline
Proj = projected for this match · Season = this season's per-game average from match data · deviation badge compares projected xG to the player's season xG/game.
Alavés — projected line vs season baseline (3-5-2)
| Player | Pos | Min | Proj G | Proj xG | Season xG/g | | Proj Sh | Season Sh/g | Proj Rtg | Season Rtg | Rec |
|---|
| Antonio Sivera | G | 89 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | | 0.0 | 86.8 | 49.7 | 7 |
| Youssef Enriquez | D | 30 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | 0 | 0.0 | 83.9 | 29.9 | 7 |
| Nahuel Tenaglia | D | 88 | 0 | 0.12 | 0.07 | 71% | 2 | 1.3 | 82.9 | 51.4 | 7 |
| Nicolás Valentini | D | 59 | 0 | 0.16 | 0.07 | 129% | 1 | 1.0 | 79.6 | 43.3 | 6 |
| Antonio Blanco | M | 90 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.04 | 48% | 1 | 0.9 | 80.6 | 47.6 | 7 |
| Pablo Ibáñez | M | 59 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.04 | ok | 1 | 0.7 | 78.8 | 49.6 | 7 |
| Miguel Rodríguez | M | 90 | 0 | 0.06 | - | n/a | 1 | 0.0 | 79.7 | - | 4 |
| Carles Aleñá | M | 5 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 100% | 1 | 0.1 | 76.0 | 9.4 | 7 |
| Ángel Pérez | M | 80 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.04 | ok | 1 | 0.9 | 83.8 | 49.4 | 7 |
| Toni Martínez | F | 88 | 1 | 0.43 | 0.46 | ok | 2 | 1.9 | 80.5 | 47.4 | 7 |
| Lucas Boyé | F | 51 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.10 | ok | 2 | 1.2 | 79.4 | 39.2 | 5 |
| Team totals | 1 | 1.05 | | 12 | | 81.1 | |
Villarreal — projected line vs season baseline (5-4-1)
| Player | Pos | Min | Proj G | Proj xG | Season xG/g | | Proj Sh | Season Sh/g | Proj Rtg | Season Rtg | Rec |
|---|
| Luiz Júnior | G | 91 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | | 0.0 | 83.2 | 8.4 | 7 |
| Renato Veiga | D | 95 | 0 | 0.45 | 0.03 | 1207% | 0 | 0.2 | 83.7 | 41.4 | 12 |
| Carlos Romero | D | 95 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.03 | 96% | 2 | 1.0 | 83.0 | 45.4 | 7 |
| Santiago Mouriño | D | 93 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.02 | 294% | 1 | 0.3 | 81.6 | 29.7 | 7 |
| Pau Navarro | D | 92 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.01 | 614% | 1 | 0.1 | 76.6 | 18.6 | 7 |
| Logan Costa | D | 14 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | 0 | 0.0 | 83.9 | 13.6 | 10 |
| Alberto Moleiro | M | 90 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 100% | 2 | 0.4 | 84.9 | 37.3 | 7 |
| Pape Gueye | M | 72 | 0 | 0.39 | 0.04 | 839% | 2 | 0.9 | 86.0 | 47.7 | 11 |
| Tajon Buchanan | M | 72 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.07 | ok | 1 | 0.6 | 80.4 | 43.2 | 12 |
| Ilias Akhomach | M | 90 | 0 | 0.05 | - | n/a | 1 | 0.0 | 80.9 | 16.0 | 4 |
| Georges Mikautadze | F | 89 | 1 | 0.50 | 0.23 | 120% | 2 | 1.0 | 85.0 | 27.0 | 8 |
| Team totals | 1 | 1.71 | | 12 | | 82.7 | |
Antagonist / tactical summary
Away midfield dictates play with ~52% possession expected (Antonio Blanco vs Alberto Moleiro). Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.62, Away: 0.84. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Three Centre Backs — Overloaded Defensive Block.
Midfield — possession 47.8% / 52.2%, dominance ratio 0.42, key duel: Antonio Blanco vs Alberto Moleiro
Miguel Rodríguez xG 0.04Antonio Blanco xG 0.04Ángel Pérez xG 0.04Georges Mikautadze xG 0.49Carlos Romero xG 0.07Santiago Mouriño xG 0.10
Summary
Antagonist matchup analysis for Alavés vs Villarreal. Most likely scoreline: 1-1. Lambdas derived from 6 home and 4 away individual player duels.
Tactical parity between 3-5-2 and 5-4-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Away midfield dictates play with ~52% possession expected (Antonio Blanco vs Alberto Moleiro). Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.62, Away: 0.84. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Three Centre Backs — Overloaded Defensive Block.
Generated 2026-09-04 22:27:55 UTC · Soccer prediction reporting