Soccer predictions: actual data vs predicted data

Slate 20260829 · 8 match(es)

How to read this report. Each match shows the model's headline prediction, the stage-by-stage lambda (goal-rate) build, both teams' standing/form inputs, and every starter's projected line next to their real season baseline. A moderate / large deviation badge flags a projection that strays far from the player's season form — a quick way to spot when the inputs look right but a projection does not. When the real result is known an actual-vs-predicted banner appears.

All matches overview

Match	Score	Winner	H / D / A	O2.5	BTTS	Conf	λ H/A	Actual	Result
Aston Villa vs Arsenal Premier League	1-1	Draw	26.6% / 26.7% / 46.6%	44.6%	48.9%	0.73	1.02 / 1.44	-	pending
Sevilla vs Atl. Madrid LaLiga	0-1	Atl. Madrid	11.6% / 20.5% / 67.9%	47.9%	41.0%	0.79	0.65 / 1.94	-	pending
Levante vs Real Betis LaLiga	1-1	Draw	23.0% / 24.0% / 53.0%	52.4%	53.5%	0.76	1.05 / 1.72	-	pending
Real Sociedad vs Espanyol LaLiga	1-1	Draw	43.1% / 28.0% / 28.9%	41.2%	46.8%	0.72	1.31 / 1.02	-	pending
Bournemouth vs Everton Premier League	1-1	Draw	34.8% / 30.7% / 34.5%	33.6%	41.1%	0.69	1.02 / 1.02	-	pending
Coventry vs Hull Premier League	1-1	Draw	35.0% / 30.6% / 34.4%	33.7%	41.3%	0.69	1.03 / 1.02	-	pending
Tottenham vs Newcastle Premier League	1-1	Draw	45.9% / 27.0% / 27.1%	43.9%	48.5%	0.73	1.41 / 1.02	-	pending
Liverpool vs Forest Premier League	1-1	Draw	44.5% / 27.5% / 28.0%	42.5%	47.7%	0.72	1.36 / 1.02	-	pending

Match detail

Aston Villa vs Arsenal

Premier League · 20260829 · 4-4-2 vs 3-5-2

Predicted 1-1Winner: DrawConfidence 0.73λ home/away 1.02 / 1.44Most-likely P 12.7%

Actual vs predicted: result not available yet (upcoming fixture).

Standing & form context

Metric	Aston Villa	Arsenal
League position	3.00	2.00
Points per game	0.00	0.00
Attack index	1.00	1.00
Defense (concede) index	1.00	1.00
Form multiplier	1.00	1.00
Standing λ multiplier	1.00	1.00

Lambda decomposition (how the goal rates were built)

Stage	Aston Villa λ	Arsenal λ
Pre-mismatch	0.708	1.327
Pre-competitive-floor	0.692	1.440
Pre-calibration	0.708	1.327
Final λ	1.020	1.440

competition calibration scale 1.0competition observed total goals 0.0quality gap applied Truemismatch score pressure applied Truecompetitive underdog floor applied Truestage discount 1.0

Scoreline distribution & markets

Top 5 scorelines	P
1-1	12.7%
0-1	12.2%
1-2	9.0%
0-2	8.9%
0-0	8.6%

Home win	26.6%
Draw	26.7%
Away win	46.6%
Over 2.5	44.6%
BTTS yes	48.9%

Pregame fair line — favorite Arsenal (46.6%), fair total 2.46, fair spread -0.42

Projected players vs season baseline

Proj = projected for this match · Season = this season's per-game average from match data · deviation badge compares projected xG to the player's season xG/game.

Aston Villa — projected line vs season baseline (4-4-2)

Player	Pos	Min	Proj G	Proj xG	Season xG/g		Proj Sh	Season Sh/g	Proj Rtg	Season Rtg	Rec
Zion Suzuki	G	95	0	0.00	-	n/a		0.0	81.7	43.5	10
Ezri Konsa	D	93	0	0.25	0.07	247%	1	0.3	89.2	52.6	20
Ian Maatsen	D	40	0	0.03	0.00	441%	0	0.2	85.9	35.1	13
Matteo Ruggeri	D	90	0	0.03	0.00	961%	0	0.1	81.9	49.9	12
Pau Torres	D	85	0	0.17	0.08	113%	1	0.5	87.0	47.4	13
Johan Manzambi	M	81	0	0.12	0.09	33%	2	1.1	74.7	41.6	25
Amadou Onana	M	57	0	0.00	0.02	100%	2	0.3	86.4	43.2	16
Boubacar Kamara	M	90	0	0.04	-	n/a	1	-	90.4	-	3
João Gomes	M	84	0	0.00	-	n/a	0	0.0	85.2	26.6	5
Alejandro Garnacho	F	29	0	0.01	0.04	62%	2	0.6	83.8	19.1	7
Ollie Watkins	F	76	1	0.31	0.33	ok	2	1.3	91.0	42.3	21
Team totals			1	1.02			12			85.2

Arsenal — projected line vs season baseline (3-5-2)

Player	Pos	Min	Proj G	Proj xG	Season xG/g		Proj Sh	Season Sh/g	Proj Rtg	Season Rtg	Rec
David Raya	G	95	0	0.00	-	n/a		0.0	94.6	32.6	18
William Saliba	D	95	0	0.08	0.01	615%	0	0.2	94.6	51.4	19
Jurriën Timber	D	86	0	0.49	0.06	697%	1	0.1	89.4	8.9	7
Gabriel Magalhães	D	91	0	0.16	0.04	295%	1	0.4	93.0	59.1	17
Declan Rice	M	95	0	0.00	0.02	100%	1	0.7	95.1	52.2	20
Martin Ødegaard	M	77	0	0.06	0.12	45%	2	0.8	94.6	39.2	16
Martín Zubimendi	M	67	0	0.00	0.00	100%	1	0.1	97.5	30.3	18
Bruno Guimarães	M	94	0	0.08	0.16	46%	2	1.5	93.9	57.7	10
Eberechi Eze	M	56	1	0.05	0.08	31%	1	1.0	90.7	46.6	18
Bukayo Saka	F	41	0	0.00	0.16	99%	2	1.2	95.6	45.5	19
Viktor Gyökeres	F	83	0	0.29	0.19	50%	2	1.6	94.4	57.7	18
Team totals			1	1.44			15			94.0

Antagonist / tactical summary

Midfield is evenly contested — Johan Manzambi vs Declan Rice will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.38, Away: 0.32. Home danger zone: LM vs RWB. Away danger zone: Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run.

Midfield — possession 49.7% / 50.3%, dominance ratio 0.47, key duel: Johan Manzambi vs Declan Rice

Alejandro Garnacho xG 0.02Johan Manzambi xG 0.16Boubacar Kamara xG 0.05Bukayo Saka xG 0.00Martín Zubimendi xG 0.12Eberechi Eze xG 0.05

Summary

Antagonist matchup analysis for Aston Villa vs Arsenal. Most likely scoreline: 1-1. Lambdas derived from 4 home and 5 away individual player duels.

Tactical parity between 4-4-2 and 3-5-2. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Midfield is evenly contested — Johan Manzambi vs Declan Rice will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.38, Away: 0.32. Home danger zone: LM vs RWB. Away danger zone: Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run.

Sevilla vs Atl. Madrid

LaLiga · 20260829 · 5-3-2 vs 3-5-2

Predicted 0-1Winner: Atl. MadridConfidence 0.79λ home/away 0.65 / 1.94Most-likely P 14.5%

Actual vs predicted: result not available yet (upcoming fixture).

Standing & form context

Metric	Sevilla	Atl. Madrid
League position	4.00	3.00
Points per game	3.00	3.00
Attack index	0.84	0.84
Defense (concede) index	1.00	0.42
Form multiplier	1.00	1.00
Standing λ multiplier	0.93	0.67

Lambda decomposition (how the goal rates were built)

Stage	Sevilla λ	Atl. Madrid λ
Pre-mismatch	0.681	1.690
Pre-calibration	0.681	1.690
Final λ	0.650	1.938

Scoreline distribution & markets

Top 5 scorelines	P
0-1	14.5%
0-2	14.1%
1-1	9.5%
1-2	9.2%
0-3	9.1%

Home win	11.6%
Draw	20.5%
Away win	67.9%
Over 2.5	47.9%
BTTS yes	41.0%

Pregame fair line — favorite Atl. Madrid (67.9%), fair total 2.59, fair spread -1.29

Projected players vs season baseline

Proj = projected for this match · Season = this season's per-game average from match data · deviation badge compares projected xG to the player's season xG/game.

Sevilla — projected line vs season baseline (5-3-2)

Player	Pos	Min	Proj xG	Season xG/g		Proj Sh	Season Sh/g	Proj Rtg	Season Rtg	Rec
Odysseas Vlachodimos	G	88	0.00	-	n/a		0.0	78.7	30.6	7
Kike Salas	D	92	0.20	0.10	98%	1	1.0	82.4	57.2	5
José Ángel Carmona	D	84	0.00	-	n/a	0	0.0	88.0	42.0	5
Arouna Sangante	D	90	0.00	-	n/a	0	0.0	79.7	40.4	5
Gabriel Suazo	D	84	0.00	-	n/a	0	0.0	80.4	42.3	6
Andres Castrin	D	50	0.02	0.00	645%	0	0.2	67.1	29.2	5
Lucien Agoumé	M	77	0.00	-	n/a	0	0.0	82.1	45.7	6
Rubén Vargas	M	49	0.16	0.07	125%	1	0.7	82.0	31.8	18
Oso	M	79	0.13	0.05	187%	1	1.2	84.5	46.5	6
Isaac Romero	F	40	0.05	0.07	ok	2	1.2	84.3	47.8	4
Robbie Ure	F	44	0.06	0.03	112%	2	0.3	73.4	23.0	3
Team totals			0.65			8			80.2

Atl. Madrid — projected line vs season baseline (3-5-2)

Player	Pos	Min	Proj G	Proj xG	Season xG/g		Proj Sh	Season Sh/g	Proj Rtg	Season Rtg	Rec
Jan Oblak	G	92	0	0.00	-	n/a		0.0	95.2	21.2	17
Cristian Romero	D	94	0	0.34	0.03	997%	0	0.2	89.6	32.4	13
Dávid Hancko	D	86	0	0.12	0.02	497%	1	0.8	90.5	54.0	13
Marc Pubill	D	74	0	0.35	0.04	833%	1	0.2	90.3	25.1	19
Pablo Barrios	M	61	0	0.00	-	n/a	2	0.0	89.4	28.2	5
Morten Hjulmand	M	84	1	0.21	0.10	120%	1	0.4	90.7	39.8	9
Giuliano Simeone	M	75	0	0.00	0.05	100%	2	0.4	88.0	31.2	23
Alex Baena	M	50	0	0.24	0.04	480%	1	0.9	91.2	46.3	21
Kang-in Lee	M	25	0	0.00	0.02	100%	1	0.4	86.2	34.9	18
Julián Alvarez	F	81	0	0.25	0.25	ok	2	1.4	94.2	44.4	18
Ademola Lookman	F	81	0	0.34	0.28	ok	2	1.4	90.9	52.8	13
Team totals			1	1.94			14			90.6

Antagonist / tactical summary

Away midfield dictates play with ~53% possession expected (Lucien Agoumé vs Pablo Barrios). Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.44, Away: 0.95. Home danger zone: Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel. Away danger zone: Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel.

Midfield — possession 46.8% / 53.2%, dominance ratio 0.40, key duel: Lucien Agoumé vs Pablo Barrios

José Ángel Carmona xG 0.08Gabriel Suazo xG 0.06Oso xG 0.09Alex Baena xG 0.16Giuliano Simeone xG 0.17Pablo Barrios xG 0.19

Summary

Antagonist matchup analysis for Sevilla vs Atl. Madrid. Most likely scoreline: 0-1. Lambdas derived from 6 home and 6 away individual player duels.

Tactical parity between 5-3-2 and 3-5-2. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Away midfield dictates play with ~53% possession expected (Lucien Agoumé vs Pablo Barrios). Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.44, Away: 0.95. Home danger zone: Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel. Away danger zone: Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel.

Levante vs Real Betis

LaLiga · 20260829 · 3-5-2 vs 3-5-2

Predicted 1-1Winner: DrawConfidence 0.76λ home/away 1.05 / 1.72Most-likely P 11.4%

Actual vs predicted: result not available yet (upcoming fixture).

Standing & form context

Metric	Levante	Real Betis
League position	19.00	14.00
Points per game	0.00	0.00
Attack index	1.00	1.00
Defense (concede) index	1.00	1.25
Form multiplier	1.00	1.00
Standing λ multiplier	1.00	1.10

Lambda decomposition (how the goal rates were built)

Stage	Levante λ	Real Betis λ
Pre-competitive-floor	0.892	1.721
Pre-calibration	0.811	1.774
Final λ	1.050	1.721

competition calibration scale 1.0competition observed total goals 0.0quality gap applied Truemismatch score pressure applied Falsecompetitive underdog floor applied Truestage discount 1.0

Scoreline distribution & markets

Top 5 scorelines	P
1-1	11.4%
0-1	10.7%
1-2	9.7%
0-2	9.3%
1-0	6.5%

Home win	23.0%
Draw	24.0%
Away win	53.0%
Over 2.5	52.4%
BTTS yes	53.5%

Pregame fair line — favorite Real Betis (53.0%), fair total 2.77, fair spread -0.67

Projected players vs season baseline

Proj = projected for this match · Season = this season's per-game average from match data · deviation badge compares projected xG to the player's season xG/game.

Levante — projected line vs season baseline (3-5-2)

Player	Pos	Min	Proj G	Proj xG	Season xG/g		Proj Sh	Season Sh/g	Proj Rtg	Season Rtg	Rec
Mathew Ryan	G	88	0	0.00	-	n/a		0.0	90.1	27.2	11
Manuel Sánchez	D	70	0	0.00	-	n/a	0	0.0	82.3	37.4	7
Adrián de la Fuente	D	89	1	0.37	0.18	113%	1	0.9	87.8	41.6	7
Jeremy Toljan	D	53	0	0.00	-	n/a	0	0.0	79.1	36.6	7
Carlos Álvarez	M	46	0	0.00	-	n/a	2	0.0	81.6	16.0	4
Enzo Bardeli	M	45	0	0.00	-	n/a	1	0.0	77.3	16.0	4
Hugo Sotelo	M	36	0	0.00	-	n/a	0	0.0	79.6	20.0	10
Thiago Fernández	M	90	0	0.06	0.00	3003%	1	0.2	80.7	21.8	6
Jon Ander Olasagasti	M	84	0	0.00	0.13	100%	2	0.6	85.5	39.4	7
Etta Eyong	F	21	0	0.03	0.02	82%	2	0.4	72.5	27.0	7
Iván Romero	F	38	0	0.26	0.04	501%	2	0.4	76.4	36.6	7
Team totals			1	1.05			13			81.2

Real Betis — projected line vs season baseline (3-5-2)

Player	Pos	Min	Proj G	Proj xG	Season xG/g		Proj Sh	Season Sh/g	Proj Rtg	Season Rtg	Rec
Álvaro Valles	G	89	0	0.00	-	n/a		0.0	85.6	11.9	11
Natan	D	74	0	0.00	-	n/a	0	0.0	85.0	41.0	10
Valentín Gómez	D	50	0	0.10	0.01	1921%	0	0.1	82.5	32.6	10
Fran García	D	59	0	0.00	-	n/a	0	0.0	85.6	21.8	12
Abdessamad Ezzalzouli	M	86	0	0.10	0.15	31%	2	0.9	84.4	34.1	15
Antony	M	95	0	0.26	0.19	39%	2	2.1	88.7	46.8	11
Nelson Deossa	M	35	0	0.00	0.00	100%	1	0.2	81.4	25.7	10
Pablo Fornals	M	73	0	0.22	0.04	396%	1	0.7	86.0	39.6	11
Pablo García	M	90	0	0.10	0.00	2703%	1	0.2	75.8	10.8	6
Troy Parrott	F	76	0	0.34	0.15	133%	3	1.0	81.0	29.1	7
Cucho Hernández	F	77	1	0.50	0.26	95%	2	1.7	86.9	34.8	14
Team totals			1	1.72			13			83.9

Antagonist / tactical summary

Midfield is evenly contested — Carlos Álvarez vs Abdessamad Ezzalzouli will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.59, Away: 0.76. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle.

Midfield — possession 48.2% / 51.8%, dominance ratio 0.44, key duel: Carlos Álvarez vs Abdessamad Ezzalzouli

Enzo Bardeli xG 0.07Carlos Álvarez xG 0.13Jon Ander Olasagasti xG 0.10Nelson Deossa xG 0.09Abdessamad Ezzalzouli xG 0.06Antony xG 0.15

Summary

Antagonist matchup analysis for Levante vs Real Betis. Most likely scoreline: 1-1. Lambdas derived from 6 home and 6 away individual player duels.

Tactical parity between 3-5-2 and 3-5-2. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Midfield is evenly contested — Carlos Álvarez vs Abdessamad Ezzalzouli will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.59, Away: 0.76. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle.

Real Sociedad vs Espanyol

LaLiga · 20260829 · 3-5-2 vs 4-2-3-1

Predicted 1-1Winner: DrawConfidence 0.72λ home/away 1.31 / 1.02Most-likely P 13.1%

Actual vs predicted: result not available yet (upcoming fixture).

Standing & form context

Metric	Real Sociedad	Espanyol
League position	16.00	2.00
Points per game	0.00	3.00
Attack index	1.00	1.25
Defense (concede) index	1.00	1.00
Form multiplier	0.94	1.06
Standing λ multiplier	0.99	1.11

Lambda decomposition (how the goal rates were built)

Stage	Real Sociedad λ	Espanyol λ
Pre-competitive-floor	1.310	0.910
Pre-calibration	1.310	0.910
Final λ	1.310	1.020

Scoreline distribution & markets

Top 5 scorelines	P
1-1	13.1%
1-0	12.6%
0-0	9.8%
0-1	9.8%
2-1	8.5%

Home win	43.1%
Draw	28.0%
Away win	28.9%
Over 2.5	41.2%
BTTS yes	46.8%

Pregame fair line — favorite Real Sociedad (43.1%), fair total 2.33, fair spread 0.29

Projected players vs season baseline

Proj = projected for this match · Season = this season's per-game average from match data · deviation badge compares projected xG to the player's season xG/game.

Real Sociedad — projected line vs season baseline (3-5-2)

Player	Pos	Min	Proj G	Proj xG	Season xG/g		Proj Sh	Season Sh/g	Proj Rtg	Season Rtg	Rec
Álex Remiro	G	90	0	0.00	-	n/a		0.0	89.6	26.2	5
Jon Martin	D	95	0	0.07	0.01	508%	1	0.2	74.8	23.0	6
Sergio Gómez	D	81	0	0.00	0.02	100%	0	0.2	86.1	35.0	6
Jon Aramburu	D	80	0	0.02	0.00	332%	1	0.2	83.9	33.0	6
Jon Gorrotxategi	M	60	0	0.00	-	n/a	0	0.0	85.2	23.0	3
Takefusa Kubo	M	59	0	0.05	0.01	827%	2	0.2	88.4	11.8	11
Ander Barrenetxea	M	35	0	0.13	0.04	218%	1	0.2	85.0	16.8	4
Luka Sučić	M	58	0	0.04	0.05	ok	1	0.5	84.5	26.3	10
Beñat Turrientes	M	64	0	0.00	0.01	100%	1	0.2	84.5	38.8	5
Mikel Oyarzabal	F	71	0	0.28	0.30	ok	2	1.8	94.5	54.8	13
Orri Óskarsson	F	81	1	0.68	0.29	130%	4	1.4	82.2	31.8	5
Team totals			1	1.31			14			85.3

Espanyol — projected line vs season baseline (4-2-3-1)

Player	Pos	Min	Proj G	Proj xG	Season xG/g		Proj Sh	Season Sh/g	Proj Rtg	Season Rtg	Rec
Marko Dmitrović	G	88	0	0.00	-	n/a		0.0	86.5	38.8	6
Omar El Hilali	D	72	0	0.00	-	n/a	0	0.0	84.0	45.8	6
Quilindschy Hartman	D	90	0	0.00	-	n/a		0.0	83.9	-	4
Vanja Drkušić	D	89	0	0.00	-	n/a	0	0.0	87.0	-	8
Clemens Riedel	D	89	0	0.00	-	n/a	0	0.0	75.8	34.8	6
Urko González	M	86	0	0.00	0.00	100%	1	0.3	79.0	47.2	6
Tyrhys Dolan	M	79	0	0.51	0.07	628%	2	1.2	76.3	43.2	5
Gabriel Moscardo	M	28	0	0.00	0.02	100%	0	0.6	78.6	52.5	10
Javi Puado	M	90	0	0.07	-	n/a	2	-	82.8	-	1
Pol Lozano	M	54	0	0.00	0.02	100%	2	0.5	81.8	52.0	4
Roberto Fernández	F	67	1	0.30	0.29	ok	2	1.0	77.1	48.3	6
Team totals			1	1.02			10			81.2

Antagonist / tactical summary

Midfield is evenly contested — Jon Gorrotxategi vs Urko González will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.62, Away: 0.81. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Left Wing vs Right Wingback — Compact Flank.

Midfield — possession 51.4% / 48.6%, dominance ratio 0.54, key duel: Jon Gorrotxategi vs Urko González

Mikel Oyarzabal xG 0.31Luka Sučić xG 0.05Beñat Turrientes xG 0.08Tyrhys Dolan xG 0.33Pol Lozano xG 0.19Javi Puado xG 0.04

Summary

Antagonist matchup analysis for Real Sociedad vs Espanyol. Most likely scoreline: 1-1. Lambdas derived from 5 home and 5 away individual player duels.

Tactical parity between 3-5-2 and 4-2-3-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Midfield is evenly contested — Jon Gorrotxategi vs Urko González will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.62, Away: 0.81. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Left Wing vs Right Wingback — Compact Flank.

Bournemouth vs Everton

Premier League · 20260829 · 4-4-2 vs 3-4-2-1

Predicted 1-1Winner: DrawConfidence 0.69λ home/away 1.02 / 1.02Most-likely P 13.7%

Actual vs predicted: result not available yet (upcoming fixture).

Standing & form context

Metric	Bournemouth	Everton
League position	1.00	9.00
Points per game	0.00	0.00
Attack index	1.00	1.00
Defense (concede) index	1.00	1.00
Form multiplier	1.00	1.00
Standing λ multiplier	1.00	1.00

Lambda decomposition (how the goal rates were built)

Stage	Bournemouth λ	Everton λ
Pre-competitive-floor	1.025	0.932
Pre-calibration	1.025	0.932
Final λ	1.025	1.020

competition calibration scale 1.0competition observed total goals 0.0quality gap applied Falsemismatch score pressure applied Falsecompetitive underdog floor applied Truestage discount 1.0

Scoreline distribution & markets

Top 5 scorelines	P
1-1	13.7%
1-0	13.1%
0-0	13.1%
0-1	13.1%
2-1	6.9%

Home win	34.8%
Draw	30.7%
Away win	34.5%
Over 2.5	33.6%
BTTS yes	41.1%

Pregame fair line — favorite Bournemouth (34.8%), fair total 2.04, fair spread 0.01

Projected players vs season baseline

Proj = projected for this match · Season = this season's per-game average from match data · deviation badge compares projected xG to the player's season xG/game.

Bournemouth — projected line vs season baseline (4-4-2)

Player	Pos	Min	Proj G	Proj xG	Season xG/g		Proj Sh	Season Sh/g	Proj Rtg	Season Rtg	Rec
Đorđe Petrović	G	95	0	0.00	-	n/a		0.0	87.2	34.7	6
Adrien Truffert	D	95	0	0.24	0.06	290%	1	0.3	85.0	37.3	6
António Silva	D	95	0	0.45	0.10	358%	2	0.4	85.5	20.3	7
James Hill	D	95	0	0.07	0.02	297%	0	0.2	78.1	33.7	6
Bafodé Diakité	D	90	0	0.00	-	n/a		0.0	86.0	-	6
Rayan	M	84	1	0.03	0.10	69%	2	0.7	88.5	33.0	15
Alex Scott	M	95	0	0.00	-	n/a	2	0.0	81.8	28.2	5
Tyler Adams	M	79	0	0.00	0.00	100%	1	0.1	86.2	43.9	11
Justin Kluivert	M	90	0	0.03	0.01	492%	1	0.1	86.1	14.9	13
Eli Junior Kroupi	F	90	0	0.07	0.07	ok	2	1.5	81.6	33.7	6
Evanilson	F	73	0	0.06	0.14	60%	2	0.8	87.1	34.2	6
Team totals			1	1.02			15			84.8

Everton — projected line vs season baseline (3-4-2-1)

Player	Pos	Min	Proj G	Proj xG	Season xG/g		Proj Sh	Season Sh/g	Proj Rtg	Season Rtg	Rec
Jordan Pickford	G	92	0	0.00	-	n/a		0.0	90.6	42.9	14
Jarrad Branthwaite	D	90	0	0.00	-	n/a		-	86.3	-	3
Vitaliy Mykolenko	D	95	0	0.00	-	n/a	0	0.0	84.7	31.9	8
Jake O'Brien	D	82	1	0.42	0.08	421%	1	0.3	82.2	25.9	7
Iliman Ndiaye	M	95	0	0.05	0.05	ok	2	0.5	86.1	26.6	13
James Garner	M	95	0	0.03	0.02	61%	2	0.6	84.0	43.2	5
Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall	M	95	0	0.05	0.08	37%	1	0.5	84.2	33.5	6
Hayden Hackney	M	90	0	0.04	-	n/a	1	-	80.3	-	3
Brennan Johnson	F	67	0	0.17	-	n/a	2	0.0	85.9	27.9	7
Thierno Barry	F	43	0	0.24	0.00	5240%	2	0.2	83.8	32.0	6
Tyrique George	F	19	0	0.00	0.01	91%	0	0.2	78.0	41.0	5
Team totals			1	1.02			11			84.2

Antagonist / tactical summary

Midfield is evenly contested — Rayan vs Iliman Ndiaye will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.58, Away: 0.73. Home danger zone: Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle.

Midfield — possession 49.9% / 50.1%, dominance ratio 0.49, key duel: Rayan vs Iliman Ndiaye

Rayan xG 0.05Alex Scott xG 0.16Tyler Adams xG 0.12Thierno Barry xG 0.33Brennan Johnson xG 0.23Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall xG 0.07

Summary

Antagonist matchup analysis for Bournemouth vs Everton. Most likely scoreline: 1-1. Lambdas derived from 6 home and 5 away individual player duels.

Tactical parity between 4-4-2 and 3-4-2-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Midfield is evenly contested — Rayan vs Iliman Ndiaye will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.58, Away: 0.73. Home danger zone: Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle.

Coventry vs Hull

Premier League · 20260829 · 3-4-2-1 vs 4-2-3-1

Predicted 1-1Winner: DrawConfidence 0.69λ home/away 1.03 / 1.02Most-likely P 13.7%

Actual vs predicted: result not available yet (upcoming fixture).

Standing & form context

Metric	Coventry	Hull
League position	7.00	11.00
Points per game	0.00	0.00
Attack index	1.00	1.00
Defense (concede) index	1.00	1.00
Form multiplier	1.00	1.00
Standing λ multiplier	1.00	1.00

Lambda decomposition (how the goal rates were built)

Stage	Coventry λ	Hull λ
Pre-competitive-floor	1.032	0.687
Pre-calibration	1.032	0.687
Final λ	1.032	1.020

Scoreline distribution & markets

Top 5 scorelines	P
1-1	13.7%
1-0	13.1%
0-0	13.0%
0-1	13.0%
2-1	7.0%

Home win	35.0%
Draw	30.6%
Away win	34.4%
Over 2.5	33.7%
BTTS yes	41.3%

Pregame fair line — favorite Coventry (35.0%), fair total 2.05, fair spread 0.01

Projected players vs season baseline

Proj = projected for this match · Season = this season's per-game average from match data · deviation badge compares projected xG to the player's season xG/game.

Coventry — projected line vs season baseline (3-4-2-1)

Player	Pos	Min	Proj G	Proj xG	Season xG/g		Proj Sh	Season Sh/g	Proj Rtg	Season Rtg	Rec
Carl Rushworth	G	90	0	0.00	-	n/a		-	79.0	-	3
Milan van Ewijk	D	90	0	0.00	-	n/a		-	81.0	-	3
Bobby Thomas	D	90	0	0.00	-	n/a		-	77.9	-	3
Liam Kitching	D	90	0	0.00	-	n/a		-	76.9	-	2
Jack Rudoni	M	90	0	0.21	-	n/a	1	-	81.1	-	2
Caleb Yirenkyi	M	70	1	0.00	0.14	100%	2	0.3	73.8	38.4	7
Ephron Mason-Clark	M	90	0	0.21	-	n/a	1	-	78.0	-	2
Gustavo Hamer	M	90	0	0.20	-	n/a	1	-	84.0	-	2
Sidiki Cherif	F	43	0	0.01	0.03	79%	2	0.4	70.7	26.2	5
Haji Wright	F	4	0	0.01	-	n/a	2	0.0	73.5	-	7
Brandon Thomas-Asante	F	26	0	0.00	-	n/a	0	0.0	76.1	22.0	6
Team totals			1	1.03			11			77.4

Hull — projected line vs season baseline (4-2-3-1)

Player	Pos	Min	Proj G	Proj xG	Season xG/g		Proj Sh	Season Sh/g	Proj Rtg	Season Rtg	Rec
Konstantinos Tzolakis	G	93	0	0.00	-	n/a		0.0	86.2	36.0	8
Ryan Giles	D	90	0	0.00	-	n/a		-	77.8	-	3
Charlie Hughes	D	90	0	0.00	-	n/a		-	77.7	-	2
Lucas Herrington	D	90	0	0.00	-	n/a	0	0.0	66.1	21.0	10
Nobel Mendy	D	90	0	0.00	-	n/a	0	0.0	73.3	29.6	5
Joe Gelhardt	M	90	0	0.18	-	n/a	2	-	77.0	-	2
Jens Hjertø-Dahl	M	90	0	0.18	-	n/a	2	-	70.8	-	3
Elliot Stroud	M	42	0	0.00	0.01	100%	0	0.1	77.6	22.1	9
Hidemasa Morita	M	67	0	0.00	0.00	100%	0	0.1	86.0	53.9	9
Mohamed Belloumi	M	90	0	0.18	-	n/a	2	-	79.7	-	3
Oli McBurnie	F	90	1	0.34	-	n/a	2	-	80.7	-	3
Team totals			1	1.02			9			77.5

Antagonist / tactical summary

Midfield is evenly contested — Jack Rudoni vs Joe Gelhardt will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.24, Away: 0.24. Home danger zone: Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle.

Midfield — possession 51.3% / 48.7%, dominance ratio 0.53, key duel: Jack Rudoni vs Joe Gelhardt

Haji Wright xG 0.00Sidiki Cherif xG 0.00Ephron Mason-Clark xG 0.05Jens Hjertø-Dahl xG 0.05Joe Gelhardt xG 0.05Mohamed Belloumi xG 0.04

Summary

Antagonist matchup analysis for Coventry vs Hull. Most likely scoreline: 1-1. Lambdas derived from 5 home and 4 away individual player duels.

Tactical parity between 3-4-2-1 and 4-2-3-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Midfield is evenly contested — Jack Rudoni vs Joe Gelhardt will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.24, Away: 0.24. Home danger zone: Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle.

Tottenham vs Newcastle

Premier League · 20260829 · 4-2-3-1 vs 4-3-3

Predicted 1-1Winner: DrawConfidence 0.73λ home/away 1.41 / 1.02Most-likely P 12.8%

Actual vs predicted: result not available yet (upcoming fixture).

Standing & form context

Metric	Tottenham	Newcastle
League position	20.00	17.00
Points per game	0.00	0.00
Attack index	1.00	1.00
Defense (concede) index	1.00	1.00
Form multiplier	1.00	1.00
Standing λ multiplier	1.00	1.00

Lambda decomposition (how the goal rates were built)

Stage	Tottenham λ	Newcastle λ
Pre-competitive-floor	1.413	0.974
Pre-calibration	1.413	0.974
Final λ	1.413	1.020

Scoreline distribution & markets

Top 5 scorelines	P
1-1	12.8%
1-0	12.3%
2-1	8.9%
0-0	8.9%
0-1	8.8%

Home win	45.9%
Draw	27.0%
Away win	27.1%
Over 2.5	43.9%
BTTS yes	48.5%

Pregame fair line — favorite Tottenham (45.9%), fair total 2.43, fair spread 0.39

Projected players vs season baseline

Proj = projected for this match · Season = this season's per-game average from match data · deviation badge compares projected xG to the player's season xG/game.

Tottenham — projected line vs season baseline (4-2-3-1)

Player	Pos	Min	Proj G	Proj xG	Season xG/g		Proj Sh	Season Sh/g	Proj Rtg	Season Rtg	Rec
Antonín Kinský	G	74	0	0.00	-	n/a		0.0	81.8	33.4	8
Jan Paul van Hecke	D	95	0	0.39	0.11	265%	1	0.4	88.1	40.0	11
Micky van de Ven	D	95	0	0.04	0.01	183%	1	0.3	89.1	37.7	12
Pedro Porro	D	95	0	0.20	0.12	75%	2	0.9	89.9	46.1	16
Destiny Udogie	D	71	0	0.02	0.00	458%	0	0.2	87.0	43.2	6
Sandro Tonali	M	83	0	0.04	0.02	68%	2	1.2	93.5	43.1	8
Mohammed Kudus	M	90	0	0.05	-	n/a	2	-	87.5	-	2
Mateus Fernandes	M	95	0	0.08	0.12	32%	1	0.8	84.0	37.2	6
Xavi Simons	M	66	0	0.20	0.24	ok	2	1.0	91.8	40.5	4
Lucas Bergvall	M	32	0	0.00	0.01	100%	1	0.4	84.1	41.0	13
Dominic Solanke	F	48	1	0.35	0.14	151%	2	0.5	88.5	19.2	4
Team totals			1	1.41			14			87.8

Newcastle — projected line vs season baseline (4-3-3)

Player	Pos	Min	Proj G	Proj xG	Season xG/g		Proj Sh	Season Sh/g	Proj Rtg	Season Rtg	Rec
Lukáš Horníček	G	92	0	0.00	-	n/a		0.0	79.1	42.1	15
Tino Livramento	D	37	0	0.02	0.00	1179%	1	0.1	86.3	10.6	11
Malick Thiaw	D	78	0	0.00	-	n/a	0	0.0	85.1	29.5	13
Lewis Hall	D	95	0	0.10	0.02	298%	1	0.5	87.1	39.6	8
Sven Botman	D	79	0	0.02	0.00	795%	0	0.1	89.7	34.9	8
Bazoumana Touré	M	76	0	0.15	0.04	267%	2	0.7	77.2	29.7	12
Jacob Ramsey	M	84	0	0.00	0.02	100%	1	0.5	85.3	42.4	8
Joelinton	M	76	0	0.00	0.02	100%	1	0.5	88.9	31.3	6
Nick Woltemade	F	92	0	0.38	0.02	2375%	2	0.1	86.8	16.1	13
Harvey Barnes	F	95	1	0.27	0.16	67%	2	1.4	87.9	44.0	8
Anthony Elanga	F	54	0	0.01	0.11	95%	2	0.6	88.6	39.9	16
Team totals			1	1.02			12			85.6

Antagonist / tactical summary

Midfield is evenly contested — Sandro Tonali vs Bazoumana Touré will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.84, Away: 0.87. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle.

Midfield — possession 50.6% / 49.4%, dominance ratio 0.53, key duel: Sandro Tonali vs Bazoumana Touré

Sandro Tonali xG 0.05Xavi Simons xG 0.24Mohammed Kudus xG 0.06Harvey Barnes xG 0.26Anthony Elanga xG 0.01Nick Woltemade xG 0.38

Summary

Antagonist matchup analysis for Tottenham vs Newcastle. Most likely scoreline: 1-1. Lambdas derived from 5 home and 5 away individual player duels.

Tactical parity between 4-2-3-1 and 4-3-3. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Midfield is evenly contested — Sandro Tonali vs Bazoumana Touré will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.84, Away: 0.87. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle.

Liverpool vs Forest

Premier League · 20260829 · 3-5-2 vs 4-2-3-1

Predicted 1-1Winner: DrawConfidence 0.72λ home/away 1.36 / 1.02Most-likely P 13.0%

Actual vs predicted: result not available yet (upcoming fixture).

Standing & form context

Metric	Liverpool	Forest
League position	14.00	18.00
Points per game	0.00	0.00
Attack index	1.00	1.00
Defense (concede) index	1.00	1.00
Form multiplier	1.00	1.00
Standing λ multiplier	1.00	1.00

Lambda decomposition (how the goal rates were built)

Stage	Liverpool λ	Forest λ
Pre-competitive-floor	1.361	0.657
Pre-calibration	1.361	0.657
Final λ	1.361	1.020

Scoreline distribution & markets

Top 5 scorelines	P
1-1	13.0%
1-0	12.5%
0-0	9.4%
0-1	9.3%
2-1	8.7%

Home win	44.5%
Draw	27.5%
Away win	28.0%
Over 2.5	42.5%
BTTS yes	47.7%

Pregame fair line — favorite Liverpool (44.5%), fair total 2.38, fair spread 0.34

Projected players vs season baseline

Proj = projected for this match · Season = this season's per-game average from match data · deviation badge compares projected xG to the player's season xG/game.

Liverpool — projected line vs season baseline (3-5-2)

Player	Pos	Min	Proj G	Proj xG	Season xG/g		Proj Sh	Season Sh/g	Proj Rtg	Season Rtg	Rec
Giorgi Mamardashvili	G	95	0	0.00	-	n/a		0.0	90.9	27.1	10
Jérémy Jacquet	D	90	0	0.00	-	n/a		-	82.4	-	3
Jeremie Frimpong	D	43	0	0.05	0.01	776%	0	0.1	90.1	41.0	8
Miloš Kerkez	D	75	0	0.31	0.05	529%	1	0.4	89.1	40.1	10
Florian Wirtz	M	77	0	0.13	0.17	ok	3	1.3	96.7	42.5	15
Dominik Szoboszlai	M	95	0	0.06	0.10	42%	2	1.3	90.7	44.1	10
Ryan Gravenberch	M	95	0	0.07	0.05	35%	1	0.9	92.4	43.6	14
Alexis Mac Allister	M	92	0	0.11	0.13	ok	1	1.2	94.4	42.6	17
Cody Gakpo	M	90	0	0.06	0.14	55%	1	0.9	91.5	36.8	17
Alexander Isak	F	77	0	0.07	0.07	ok	2	0.8	95.2	36.8	11
Hugo Ekitiké	F	95	1	0.45	0.20	122%	4	1.4	90.8	40.6	7
Team totals			1	1.36			16			91.3

Forest — projected line vs season baseline (4-2-3-1)

Player	Pos	Min	Proj G	Proj xG	Season xG/g		Proj Sh	Season Sh/g	Proj Rtg	Season Rtg	Rec
John Victor	G	90	0	0.00	-	n/a		0.0	81.7	-	3
Murillo	D	55	0	0.12	0.02	456%	1	0.4	90.1	32.6	8
Ousmane Diomande	D	83	0	0.07	0.01	863%	0	0.2	87.4	30.7	13
Nikola Milenković	D	79	0	0.03	0.00	1368%	0	0.1	90.2	44.9	12
Neco Williams	D	82	0	0.12	0.03	285%	1	0.7	85.2	47.4	13
Morgan Gibbs-White	M	82	1	0.44	0.19	139%	2	1.4	89.6	45.0	11
Callum Hudson Odoi	M	95	0	0.07	0.03	146%	1	0.7	85.6	37.5	6
Dan Ndoye	M	86	0	0.00	0.03	100%	1	0.6	86.3	18.2	23
Omari Hutchinson	M	81	0	0.06	0.07	ok	2	1.2	81.9	55.5	11
Dilane Bakwa	M	64	0	0.00	0.00	100%	2	0.1	85.2	40.5	10
Igor Jesus	F	78	0	0.11	0.19	41%	2	1.9	84.0	49.2	12
Team totals			1	1.02			12			86.1

Antagonist / tactical summary

Midfield is evenly contested — Florian Wirtz vs Morgan Gibbs-White will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.34, Away: 0.73. Home danger zone: Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run. Away danger zone: Right Wing vs Left Wingback — Compact Flank.

Midfield — possession 52.1% / 47.9%, dominance ratio 0.54, key duel: Florian Wirtz vs Morgan Gibbs-White

Alexander Isak xG 0.06Alexis Mac Allister xG 0.09Cody Gakpo xG 0.06Dilane Bakwa xG 0.21Morgan Gibbs-White xG 0.35Omari Hutchinson xG 0.03

Summary

Antagonist matchup analysis for Liverpool vs Forest. Most likely scoreline: 1-1. Lambdas derived from 5 home and 5 away individual player duels.

Tactical parity between 3-5-2 and 4-2-3-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Midfield is evenly contested — Florian Wirtz vs Morgan Gibbs-White will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.34, Away: 0.73. Home danger zone: Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run. Away danger zone: Right Wing vs Left Wingback — Compact Flank.

Generated 2026-09-04 22:27:55 UTC · Soccer prediction reporting