Soccer predictions: actual data vs predicted data

Slate 20260830 · 7 match(es)

How to read this report. Each match shows the model's headline prediction, the stage-by-stage lambda (goal-rate) build, both teams' standing/form inputs, and every starter's projected line next to their real season baseline. A moderate / large deviation badge flags a projection that strays far from the player's season form — a quick way to spot when the inputs look right but a projection does not. When the real result is known an actual-vs-predicted banner appears.

All matches overview

Match	Score	Winner	H / D / A	O2.5	BTTS	Conf	λ H/A	Actual	Result
Celta vs Athletic Club LaLiga	0-0	Draw	35.8% / 31.3% / 32.9%	31.9%	39.7%	0.69	1.02 / 0.96	-	pending
Chelsea vs Brighton Premier League	1-1	Draw	57.8% / 22.0% / 20.1%	57.2%	55.6%	0.78	1.93 / 1.05	-	pending
Leeds vs Brentford Premier League	1-1	Draw	24.3% / 24.9% / 50.8%	50.1%	52.4%	0.75	1.05 / 1.63	-	pending
Sunderland vs Fulham Premier League	1-1	Draw	39.1% / 29.4% / 31.6%	37.4%	44.2%	0.71	1.17 / 1.02	-	pending
Man Utd vs Ipswich Premier League	4-0	Man Utd	94.8% / 3.6% / 1.5%	91.0%	50.5%	0.95	4.80 / 0.71	-	pending
Real Madrid vs Málaga LaLiga	4-0	Real Madrid	95.3% / 3.4% / 1.3%	90.6%	47.4%	0.95	4.80 / 0.65	-	pending
Deportivo vs Valencia LaLiga	1-0	Deportivo	38.0% / 32.1% / 30.0%	29.4%	37.3%	0.68	1.02 / 0.87	-	pending

Match detail

Celta vs Athletic Club

LaLiga · 20260830 · 3-5-2 vs 4-2-3-1

Predicted 0-0Winner: DrawConfidence 0.69λ home/away 1.02 / 0.96Most-likely P 13.9%

Actual vs predicted: result not available yet (upcoming fixture).

Standing & form context

Metric	Celta	Athletic Club
League position	13.00	10.00
Points per game	0.00	0.00
Attack index	1.00	1.00
Defense (concede) index	1.00	1.00
Form multiplier	1.00	1.00
Standing λ multiplier	1.00	1.00

Lambda decomposition (how the goal rates were built)

Stage	Celta λ	Athletic Club λ
Pre-competitive-floor	0.675	0.965
Pre-calibration	0.675	0.966
Final λ	1.020	0.965

competition calibration scale 1.0competition observed total goals 0.0quality gap applied Truemismatch score pressure applied Falsecompetitive underdog floor applied Truestage discount 1.0

Scoreline distribution & markets

Top 5 scorelines	P
0-0	13.9%
1-0	13.9%
1-1	13.7%
0-1	13.1%
2-0	7.1%

Home win	35.8%
Draw	31.3%
Away win	32.9%
Over 2.5	31.9%
BTTS yes	39.7%

Pregame fair line — favorite Celta (35.8%), fair total 1.99, fair spread 0.06

Projected players vs season baseline

Proj = projected for this match · Season = this season's per-game average from match data · deviation badge compares projected xG to the player's season xG/game.

Celta — projected line vs season baseline (3-5-2)

Player	Pos	Min	Proj xG	Season xG/g		Proj Sh	Season Sh/g	Proj Rtg	Season Rtg	Rec
Ionuț Radu	G	90	0.00	-	n/a		0.0	80.7	44.9	12
Javi Rodríguez	D	86	0.34	0.01	3771%	0	0.3	82.9	46.7	10
Abdoulaye Faye	D	75	0.00	-	n/a	0	0.0	74.4	32.5	4
Carl Starfelt	D	62	0.00	-	n/a	0	0.1	84.5	28.1	12
Williot Swedberg	M	36	0.00	0.10	100%	1	0.5	81.2	44.2	11
Miguel Román	M	90	0.56	-	n/a	1	-	88.9	-	3
Ilaix Moriba	M	84	0.00	0.00	100%	1	0.1	85.0	51.8	8
Sergio Carreira	M	91	0.00	0.02	100%	1	0.5	85.0	47.4	10
Hugo Álvarez	M	28	0.00	0.05	100%	1	0.5	82.6	42.1	8
Ferran Jutglà	F	52	0.06	0.21	73%	2	1.0	88.1	48.6	10
Jones El-Abdellaoui	F	35	0.04	0.08	51%	1	0.3	70.4	22.1	9
Team totals			1.02			8			82.2

Athletic Club — projected line vs season baseline (4-2-3-1)

Player	Pos	Min	Proj xG	Season xG/g		Proj Sh	Season Sh/g	Proj Rtg	Season Rtg	Rec
Unai Simón	G	94	0.00	-	n/a		0.0	91.9	41.5	15
Dani Vivian	D	70	0.10	0.01	805%	1	0.2	83.5	25.4	5
Aymeric Laporte	D	90	0.17	0.02	728%	1	0.4	89.1	46.4	14
Aitor Paredes	D	90	0.00	-	n/a	0	0.0	83.6	8.0	7
Jesús Areso	D	70	0.00	-	n/a	0	0.0	86.7	9.7	7
Nico Williams	M	90	0.10	0.00	5266%	2	0.1	93.4	23.3	14
Mikel Jauregizar	M	65	0.10	0.03	181%	1	0.7	84.7	26.9	7
Oihan Sancet	M	90	0.10	-	n/a	1	-	84.1	-	4
Beñat Prados	M	90	0.09	-	n/a	2	0.0	85.0	-	4
Peio Canales	M	90	0.09	-	n/a	2	-	6.8	-	3
Gorka Guruzeta	F	60	0.22	0.09	138%	2	1.4	83.3	28.3	7
Team totals			0.96			12			79.3

Antagonist / tactical summary

Midfield is evenly contested — Williot Swedberg vs Nico Williams will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.29, Away: 0.34. Home danger zone: Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle.

Midfield — possession 48.9% / 51.1%, dominance ratio 0.46, key duel: Williot Swedberg vs Nico Williams

Ferran Jutglà xG 0.01Miguel Román xG 0.05Hugo Álvarez xG 0.07Beñat Prados xG 0.06Peio Canales xG 0.05Nico Williams xG 0.05

Summary

Antagonist matchup analysis for Celta vs Athletic Club. Most likely scoreline: 0-0. Lambdas derived from 5 home and 5 away individual player duels.

Tactical parity between 3-5-2 and 4-2-3-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Midfield is evenly contested — Williot Swedberg vs Nico Williams will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.29, Away: 0.34. Home danger zone: Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle.

Chelsea vs Brighton

Premier League · 20260830 · 4-2-3-1 vs 4-2-3-1

Predicted 1-1Winner: DrawConfidence 0.78λ home/away 1.93 / 1.05Most-likely P 10.3%

Actual vs predicted: result not available yet (upcoming fixture).

Standing & form context

Metric	Chelsea	Brighton
League position	6.00	5.00
Points per game	0.00	0.00
Attack index	1.00	1.00
Defense (concede) index	1.00	1.00
Form multiplier	1.00	1.00
Standing λ multiplier	1.00	1.00

Lambda decomposition (how the goal rates were built)

Stage	Chelsea λ	Brighton λ
Pre-mismatch	1.787	0.787
Pre-competitive-floor	1.931	0.771
Pre-calibration	1.787	0.787
Final λ	1.931	1.050

competition calibration scale 1.0competition observed total goals 0.0quality gap applied Truemismatch score pressure applied Truecompetitive underdog floor applied Truestage discount 1.0

Scoreline distribution & markets

Top 5 scorelines	P
1-1	10.3%
2-1	9.9%
1-0	9.7%
2-0	9.5%
3-1	6.4%

Home win	57.8%
Draw	22.0%
Away win	20.1%
Over 2.5	57.2%
BTTS yes	55.6%

Pregame fair line — favorite Chelsea (57.8%), fair total 2.98, fair spread 0.88

Projected players vs season baseline

Proj = projected for this match · Season = this season's per-game average from match data · deviation badge compares projected xG to the player's season xG/game.

Chelsea — projected line vs season baseline (4-2-3-1)

Player	Pos	Min	Proj G	Proj xG	Season xG/g		Proj Sh	Season Sh/g	Proj Rtg	Season Rtg	Rec
Mike Penders	G	95	0	0.00	-	n/a		0.0	80.0	19.0	14
Reece James	D	70	0	0.06	0.00	1387%	0	0.1	88.5	28.9	14
Levi Colwill	D	95	0	0.00	-	n/a	0	0.0	88.0	17.8	4
Maxence Lacroix	D	88	0	0.11	0.01	1753%	0	0.1	86.6	25.7	16
Jorrel Hato	D	84	0	0.06	0.00	1988%	0	0.1	84.9	17.3	11
Morgan Rogers	M	82	0	0.10	0.11	ok	1	1.2	89.4	51.8	20
Moisés Caicedo	M	95	0	0.00	0.02	100%	1	0.5	95.1	52.8	11
Enzo Fernández	M	88	0	0.32	0.09	269%	2	0.9	91.6	39.2	15
Cole Palmer	M	86	0	0.17	0.10	69%	2	1.3	94.3	39.6	7
Estêvão	M	74	1	0.58	-	n/a	2	0.0	85.9	-	4
João Pedro	F	73	0	0.37	0.26	42%	2	1.5	86.2	32.3	6
Team totals			1	1.93			11			88.2

Brighton — projected line vs season baseline (4-2-3-1)

Player	Pos	Min	Proj G	Proj xG	Season xG/g		Proj Sh	Season Sh/g	Proj Rtg	Season Rtg	Rec
Bart Verbruggen	G	95	0	0.00	-	n/a		0.0	85.1	36.5	11
Luka Vušković	D	71	0	0.08	0.01	874%	1	0.3	79.7	28.5	10
Ferdi Kadıoğlu	D	91	0	0.10	0.01	1039%	1	0.4	86.1	40.2	12
Mats Wieffer	D	95	0	0.00	-	n/a	0	0.0	84.8	5.8	11
Pascal Struijk	D	76	0	0.08	0.01	1009%	1	0.2	82.5	25.8	5
Carlos Baleba	M	69	0	0.09	0.03	200%	1	0.5	88.7	35.3	6
Yankuba Minteh	M	95	0	0.00	0.04	100%	2	0.2	84.5	35.7	6
Yasin Ayari	M	71	1	0.25	0.02	942%	2	0.7	82.1	45.9	12
Georginio Rutter	M	90	0	0.10	0.07	45%	2	0.5	84.3	31.8	6
Jack Hinshelwood	M	86	0	0.11	0.09	ok	2	0.8	82.1	34.5	6
Charalampos Kostoulas	F	20	0	0.04	0.04	ok	2	0.7	79.2	34.3	6
Team totals			1	1.05			16			83.5

Antagonist / tactical summary

Midfield is evenly contested — Morgan Rogers vs Carlos Baleba will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.78, Away: 0.52. Home danger zone: Attacking Mid vs Double Pivot — Tight Space Battle. Away danger zone: Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle.

Midfield — possession 50.7% / 49.3%, dominance ratio 0.54, key duel: Morgan Rogers vs Carlos Baleba

Enzo Fernández xG 0.20Cole Palmer xG 0.11Estêvão xG 0.23Yankuba Minteh xG 0.30Yasin Ayari xG 0.13Georginio Rutter xG 0.03

Summary

Antagonist matchup analysis for Chelsea vs Brighton. Most likely scoreline: 1-1. Lambdas derived from 5 home and 5 away individual player duels.

Tactical parity between 4-2-3-1 and 4-2-3-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Midfield is evenly contested — Morgan Rogers vs Carlos Baleba will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.78, Away: 0.52. Home danger zone: Attacking Mid vs Double Pivot — Tight Space Battle. Away danger zone: Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle.

Leeds vs Brentford

Premier League · 20260830 · 4-4-2 vs 4-2-3-1

Predicted 1-1Winner: DrawConfidence 0.75λ home/away 1.05 / 1.63Most-likely P 11.8%

Actual vs predicted: result not available yet (upcoming fixture).

Standing & form context

Metric	Leeds	Brentford
League position	13.00	4.00
Points per game	0.00	0.00
Attack index	1.00	1.00
Defense (concede) index	1.00	1.00
Form multiplier	1.00	1.00
Standing λ multiplier	1.00	1.00

Lambda decomposition (how the goal rates were built)

Stage	Leeds λ	Brentford λ
Pre-competitive-floor	0.697	1.630
Pre-calibration	0.697	1.630
Final λ	1.050	1.630

Scoreline distribution & markets

Top 5 scorelines	P
1-1	11.8%
0-1	11.1%
1-2	9.6%
0-2	9.1%
1-0	7.1%

Home win	24.3%
Draw	24.9%
Away win	50.8%
Over 2.5	50.1%
BTTS yes	52.4%

Pregame fair line — favorite Brentford (50.8%), fair total 2.68, fair spread -0.58

Projected players vs season baseline

Proj = projected for this match · Season = this season's per-game average from match data · deviation badge compares projected xG to the player's season xG/game.

Leeds — projected line vs season baseline (4-4-2)

Player	Pos	Min	Proj G	Proj xG	Season xG/g		Proj Sh	Season Sh/g	Proj Rtg	Season Rtg	Rec
James Trafford	G	95	0	0.00	-	n/a		0.0	82.8	3.8	17
Tarik Muharemović	D	95	0	0.26	0.04	640%	0	0.2	77.4	30.3	11
Gabriel Gudmundsson	D	71	0	0.00	-	n/a	0	0.2	84.0	36.8	11
Joe Rodon	D	91	0	0.08	0.01	757%	1	0.1	82.9	28.9	7
Jaka Bijol	D	88	0	0.00	-	n/a	0	0.0	84.3	17.8	12
Ethan Ampadu	M	95	0	0.00	-	n/a	2	0.0	83.5	31.6	7
Harry Wilson	M	66	0	0.07	0.02	215%	2	0.7	83.5	28.9	7
Anton Stach	M	87	0	0.06	0.02	225%	1	0.4	86.3	27.4	5
Brenden Aaronson	M	51	0	0.12	0.07	73%	1	0.6	80.9	21.8	12
Noah Okafor	F	20	0	0.07	0.01	1131%	2	0.1	83.2	4.9	14
Dominic Calvert-Lewin	F	87	1	0.38	0.23	65%	2	0.8	81.3	34.3	6
Team totals			1	1.05			11			82.7

Brentford — projected line vs season baseline (4-2-3-1)

Player	Pos	Min	Proj G	Proj xG	Season xG/g		Proj Sh	Season Sh/g	Proj Rtg	Season Rtg	Rec
Caoimhin Kelleher	G	95	0	0.00	-	n/a		0.0	86.1	32.9	7
Michael Kayode	D	95	0	0.00	-	n/a	0	0.0	80.1	32.5	6
Sepp van den Berg	D	53	0	0.21	0.04	483%	1	0.2	84.5	29.4	5
Nathan Collins	D	95	0	0.12	0.01	703%	0	0.1	86.4	28.9	7
Kristoffer Ajer	D	93	0	0.23	0.02	1407%	0	0.1	82.2	31.5	13
Mamadou Sangare	M	95	0	0.09	0.08	ok	2	1.0	79.8	29.2	5
Dango Ouattara	M	95	1	0.31	0.24	ok	2	1.3	84.0	36.3	6
Kevin Schade	M	63	0	0.39	0.19	109%	2	1.0	85.0	32.2	6
Yehor Yarmoliuk	M	90	0	0.00	-	n/a	1	0.2	78.6	35.8	6
Mikkel Damsgaard	M	69	0	0.00	0.00	100%	0	0.3	87.3	50.7	6
Igor Thiago	F	92	0	0.17	0.09	80%	2	0.6	82.0	22.8	11
Team totals			1	1.63			12			83.3

Antagonist / tactical summary

Midfield is evenly contested — Ethan Ampadu vs Mamadou Sangare will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.35, Away: 1.03. Home danger zone: Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel. Away danger zone: Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle.

Midfield — possession 49.9% / 50.1%, dominance ratio 0.47, key duel: Ethan Ampadu vs Mamadou Sangare

Noah Okafor xG 0.05Harry Wilson xG 0.06Brenden Aaronson xG 0.09Dango Ouattara xG 0.31Kevin Schade xG 0.42Mamadou Sangare xG 0.09

Summary

Antagonist matchup analysis for Leeds vs Brentford. Most likely scoreline: 1-1. Lambdas derived from 4 home and 5 away individual player duels.

Tactical parity between 4-4-2 and 4-2-3-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Midfield is evenly contested — Ethan Ampadu vs Mamadou Sangare will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.35, Away: 1.03. Home danger zone: Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel. Away danger zone: Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle.

Sunderland vs Fulham

Premier League · 20260830 · 3-5-2 vs 4-4-2

Predicted 1-1Winner: DrawConfidence 0.71λ home/away 1.17 / 1.02Most-likely P 13.5%

Actual vs predicted: result not available yet (upcoming fixture).

Standing & form context

Metric	Sunderland	Fulham
League position	19.00	10.00
Points per game	0.00	0.00
Attack index	1.00	1.00
Defense (concede) index	1.00	1.00
Form multiplier	1.00	1.00
Standing λ multiplier	1.00	1.00

Lambda decomposition (how the goal rates were built)

Stage	Sunderland λ	Fulham λ
Pre-competitive-floor	1.169	0.740
Pre-calibration	1.169	0.741
Final λ	1.169	1.020

competition calibration scale 1.0competition observed total goals 0.0quality gap applied Falsemismatch score pressure applied Falsecompetitive underdog floor applied Truestage discount 1.0

Scoreline distribution & markets

Top 5 scorelines	P
1-1	13.5%
1-0	13.0%
0-0	11.3%
0-1	11.3%
2-1	7.8%

Home win	39.1%
Draw	29.4%
Away win	31.6%
Over 2.5	37.4%
BTTS yes	44.2%

Pregame fair line — favorite Sunderland (39.1%), fair total 2.19, fair spread 0.15

Projected players vs season baseline

Proj = projected for this match · Season = this season's per-game average from match data · deviation badge compares projected xG to the player's season xG/game.

Sunderland — projected line vs season baseline (3-5-2)

Player	Pos	Min	Proj G	Proj xG	Season xG/g		Proj Sh	Season Sh/g	Proj Rtg	Season Rtg	Rec
Robin Roefs	G	95	0	0.00	-	n/a		0.0	80.7	19.5	10
Daniel Ballard	D	90	0	0.00	-	n/a		-	80.0	-	4
Trai Hume	D	94	0	0.00	0.03	100%	1	0.5	81.6	36.1	8
Nordi Mukiele	D	92	0	0.06	0.03	98%	2	1.0	86.1	41.2	5
Noah Sadiki	M	79	0	0.00	0.04	100%	2	0.2	81.4	47.4	10
Habib Diarra	M	30	0	0.18	0.08	112%	1	0.5	84.3	34.0	8
Enzo Le Fée	M	95	0	0.28	0.08	259%	1	1.2	83.9	39.3	6
Chris Rigg	M	7	0	0.00	-	n/a	1	0.0	72.6	12.8	5
Simon Adingra	M	70	0	0.17	0.01	1092%	1	0.4	82.5	17.2	11
Brian Brobbey	F	70	1	0.35	0.30	ok	2	1.1	84.7	39.2	11
Wilson Isidor	F	48	0	0.09	0.05	74%	2	1.0	79.3	43.1	8
Team totals			1	1.17			14			81.6

Fulham — projected line vs season baseline (4-4-2)

Player	Pos	Min	Proj G	Proj xG	Season xG/g		Proj Sh	Season Sh/g	Proj Rtg	Season Rtg	Rec
Bernd Leno	G	89	0	0.00	-	n/a		0.0	86.9	34.7	6
Calvin Bassey	D	95	0	0.00	-	n/a	0	0.0	85.6	35.5	6
Antonee Robinson	D	94	0	0.33	0.07	381%	1	0.2	89.3	41.8	12
Joachim Andersen	D	74	0	0.09	0.01	797%	1	0.2	85.2	12.0	5
Ryan Sessegnon	D	90	0	0.00	-	n/a		0.0	82.0	-	4
Oscar Bobb	M	38	0	0.00	0.05	100%	0	0.4	79.0	39.3	14
Kevin	M	63	0	0.09	0.01	517%	2	0.5	83.0	33.7	6
Sander Berge	M	88	0	0.00	0.01	100%	2	0.2	86.4	31.8	13
Joshua King	M	19	0	0.00	0.03	100%	2	0.3	80.9	34.2	6
Gonzalo García	F	64	0	0.01	0.06	87%	2	0.3	85.6	25.9	11
Rodrigo Muniz	F	80	1	0.47	0.17	178%	2	1.2	81.6	31.0	6
Team totals			1	1.02			12			84.1

Antagonist / tactical summary

Midfield is evenly contested — Noah Sadiki vs Oscar Bobb will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.87, Away: 0.37. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: RM vs LWB.

Midfield — possession 50.4% / 49.6%, dominance ratio 0.52, key duel: Noah Sadiki vs Oscar Bobb

Brian Brobbey xG 0.30Chris Rigg xG 0.09Simon Adingra xG 0.13Gonzalo García xG 0.00Kevin xG 0.05Joshua King xG 0.17

Summary

Antagonist matchup analysis for Sunderland vs Fulham. Most likely scoreline: 1-1. Lambdas derived from 5 home and 4 away individual player duels.

Tactical parity between 3-5-2 and 4-4-2. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Midfield is evenly contested — Noah Sadiki vs Oscar Bobb will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.87, Away: 0.37. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: RM vs LWB.

Man Utd vs Ipswich

Premier League · 20260830 · 3-4-2-1 vs 3-5-2

Predicted 4-0Winner: Man UtdConfidence 0.95λ home/away 4.80 / 0.71Most-likely P 9.2%

Actual vs predicted: result not available yet (upcoming fixture).

Standing & form context

Metric	Man Utd	Ipswich
League position	16.00	12.00
Points per game	0.00	0.00
Attack index	1.00	1.00
Defense (concede) index	1.00	1.00
Form multiplier	1.00	1.00
Standing λ multiplier	1.00	1.00

Lambda decomposition (how the goal rates were built)

Stage	Man Utd λ	Ipswich λ
Pre-mismatch	4.647	0.738
Pre-calibration	4.647	0.738
Final λ	4.800	0.712

Scoreline distribution & markets

Top 5 scorelines	P
4-0	9.2%
5-0	8.8%
3-0	7.6%
6-0	7.0%
4-1	6.5%

Home win	94.8%
Draw	3.6%
Away win	1.5%
Over 2.5	91.0%
BTTS yes	50.5%

Pregame fair line — favorite Man Utd (94.8%), fair total 5.51, fair spread 4.09

Projected players vs season baseline

Proj = projected for this match · Season = this season's per-game average from match data · deviation badge compares projected xG to the player's season xG/game.

Man Utd — projected line vs season baseline (3-4-2-1)

Player	Pos	Min	Proj G	Proj xG	Season xG/g		Proj Sh	Season Sh/g	Proj Rtg	Season Rtg	Rec
Senne Lammens	G	82	0	0.00	-	n/a		0.0	85.4	22.8	13
Lisandro Martínez	D	95	0	0.09	0.01	959%	0	0.2	88.6	38.2	13
Leny Yoro	D	17	0	0.00	-	n/a	0	0.0	85.5	11.5	6
Matthijs de Ligt	D	95	0	0.00	-	n/a	2	-	90.0	-	2
Kobbie Mainoo	M	95	0	0.12	0.02	682%	2	0.2	84.6	17.4	12
Amad Diallo	M	82	0	0.48	0.13	267%	1	1.2	86.3	46.9	11
Youri Tielemans	M	87	0	0.14	0.05	197%	1	0.9	92.9	48.8	18
Andrey Santos	M	63	0	0.00	0.03	100%	2	0.1	87.3	21.3	7
Matheus Cunha	F	56	1	0.39	0.19	108%	3	1.8	90.8	47.2	11
Benjamin Šeško	F	90	0	0.39	-	n/a	3	-	87.6	-	8
Bryan Mbeumo	F	63	3	3.07	0.59	424%	3	1.3	92.7	33.0	6
Team totals			4	4.80			18			88.3

Ipswich — projected line vs season baseline (3-5-2)

Player	Pos	Min	Proj xG	Season xG/g		Proj Sh	Season Sh/g	Proj Rtg	Season Rtg	Rec
Kjell Scherpen	G	90	0.00	-	n/a		0.0	79.8	40.4	7
Leif Davis	D	90	0.00	-	n/a		-	83.0	-	3
Dara O'Shea	D	90	0.00	-	n/a		-	81.9	-	4
Jacob Greaves	D	90	0.00	-	n/a		-	80.8	-	3
Julio Enciso	M	76	0.16	0.14	ok	4	1.3	80.3	37.8	15
Abdul Fatawu Issahaku	M	90	0.06	0.00	1063%	1	0.3	92.1	24.5	11
Jack Clarke	M	90	0.06	-	n/a	1	-	81.1	-	2
Jaden Philogene-Bidace	M	90	0.05	-	n/a	1	-	7.0	-	2
Sindre Walle Egeli	M	90	0.05	-	n/a	1	-	75.0	-	2
Anis Mehmeti	F	90	0.10	-	n/a	2	0.0	79.0	-	3
Daizen Maeda	F	88	0.14	0.27	50%	2	1.3	86.1	45.8	11
Team totals			0.71			13			75.1

Antagonist / tactical summary

Midfield is evenly contested — Kobbie Mainoo vs Julio Enciso will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 1.98, Away: 0.41. Home danger zone: Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle.

Midfield — possession 52.6% / 47.4%, dominance ratio 0.55, key duel: Kobbie Mainoo vs Julio Enciso

Amad Diallo xG 0.20Kobbie Mainoo xG 0.06Andrey Santos xG 0.17Jaden Philogene-Bidace xG 0.05Abdul Fatawu Issahaku xG 0.04Jack Clarke xG 0.04

Summary

Antagonist matchup analysis for Man Utd vs Ipswich. Most likely scoreline: 4-0. Lambdas derived from 7 home and 6 away individual player duels.

Tactical parity between 3-4-2-1 and 3-5-2. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Midfield is evenly contested — Kobbie Mainoo vs Julio Enciso will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 1.98, Away: 0.41. Home danger zone: Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle.

Real Madrid vs Málaga

LaLiga · 20260830 · 3-4-2-1 vs 3-5-2

Predicted 4-0Winner: Real MadridConfidence 0.95λ home/away 4.80 / 0.65Most-likely P 9.8%

Actual vs predicted: result not available yet (upcoming fixture).

Standing & form context

Metric	Real Madrid	Málaga
League position	15.00	18.00
Points per game	0.00	0.00
Attack index	1.00	1.00
Defense (concede) index	0.84	1.00
Form multiplier	1.00	1.00
Standing λ multiplier	0.93	1.00

Lambda decomposition (how the goal rates were built)

Stage	Real Madrid λ	Málaga λ
Pre-mismatch	4.530	0.688
Pre-calibration	4.530	0.688
Final λ	4.800	0.650

Scoreline distribution & markets

Top 5 scorelines	P
4-0	9.8%
5-0	9.4%
3-0	8.1%
6-0	7.5%
4-1	6.3%

Home win	95.3%
Draw	3.4%
Away win	1.3%
Over 2.5	90.6%
BTTS yes	47.4%

Pregame fair line — favorite Real Madrid (95.3%), fair total 5.45, fair spread 4.15

Projected players vs season baseline

Proj = projected for this match · Season = this season's per-game average from match data · deviation badge compares projected xG to the player's season xG/game.

Real Madrid — projected line vs season baseline (3-4-2-1)

Player	Pos	Min	Proj G	Proj xG	Season xG/g		Proj Sh	Season Sh/g	Proj Rtg	Season Rtg	Rec
Thibaut Courtois	G	86	0	0.00	-	n/a		0.0	96.0	46.9	17
Dean Huijsen	D	78	0	0.00	-	n/a	0	0.0	89.6	34.6	10
Marc Cucurella	D	95	0	0.24	0.02	993%	0	0.2	91.5	46.3	16
Trent Alexander-Arnold	D	81	0	0.12	0.02	418%	1	0.6	93.8	48.6	10
Jude Bellingham	M	76	1	0.70	0.18	297%	2	1.1	98.3	57.3	16
Arda Güler	M	83	0	0.16	0.10	55%	1	1.4	88.7	48.0	17
Federico Valverde	M	94	0	0.16	0.18	ok	1	1.5	96.5	50.0	13
Aurélien Tchouaméni	M	95	0	0.09	0.04	129%	2	0.6	92.0	38.5	19
Kylian Mbappé	F	88	2	2.12	0.55	287%	3	3.5	99.1	57.6	19
Vinícius Júnior	F	95	1	1.05	0.55	90%	3	2.6	94.0	53.7	17
Yan Diomande	F	95	0	0.15	0.07	115%	3	0.6	73.5	35.9	14
Team totals			4	4.80			16			92.1

Málaga — projected line vs season baseline (3-5-2)

Player	Pos	Min	Proj xG	Season xG/g		Proj Sh	Season Sh/g	Proj Rtg	Season Rtg	Rec
Alfonso Herrero	G	88	0.00	-	n/a		0.0	81.6	19.5	4
Fernando Calero	D	57	0.00	-	n/a	0	0.0	85.7	28.2	5
Jose Salinas	D	18	0.00	-	n/a	0	0.0	84.2	9.0	7
Diego Murillo	D	90	0.00	-	n/a		-	69.6	-	3
David Larrubia	M	89	0.27	0.01	2517%	2	0.5	6.1	15.5	4
Izan Merino	M	88	0.00	-	n/a	1	0.0	72.6	16.5	4
Juan Cruz	M	23	0.00	-	n/a	1	0.0	82.4	16.0	4
Joaquín Muñoz	M	66	0.00	-	n/a	1	0.0	85.5	16.8	4
Dani Lorenzo	M	78	0.00	-	n/a	1	0.0	70.9	17.5	4
Chupete	F	91	0.07	0.02	376%	2	0.2	73.1	14.8	4
Adrián Niño	F	90	0.19	-	n/a	2	-	6.7	-	3
Team totals			0.65			11			65.3

Antagonist / tactical summary

Home midfield dominates with ~55% possession expected (Jude Bellingham vs David Larrubia). Total antagonist xG — Home: 2.67, Away: 0.36. Home danger zone: Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle.

Midfield — possession 55.2% / 44.8%, dominance ratio 0.66, key duel: Jude Bellingham vs David Larrubia

Arda Güler xG 0.12Jude Bellingham xG 0.55Aurélien Tchouaméni xG 0.07Juan Cruz xG 0.05Dani Lorenzo xG 0.06Izan Merino xG 0.07

Summary

Antagonist matchup analysis for Real Madrid vs Málaga. Most likely scoreline: 4-0. Lambdas derived from 7 home and 6 away individual player duels.

Tactical parity between 3-4-2-1 and 3-5-2. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Home midfield dominates with ~55% possession expected (Jude Bellingham vs David Larrubia). Total antagonist xG — Home: 2.67, Away: 0.36. Home danger zone: Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle.

Deportivo vs Valencia

LaLiga · 20260830 · 3-4-2-1 vs 4-2-3-1

Predicted 1-0Winner: DeportivoConfidence 0.68λ home/away 1.02 / 0.87Most-likely P 15.2%

Actual vs predicted: result not available yet (upcoming fixture).

Standing & form context

Metric	Deportivo	Valencia
League position	8.00	17.00
Points per game	1.00	0.00
Attack index	0.42	1.00
Defense (concede) index	1.00	0.42
Form multiplier	1.05	0.95
Standing λ multiplier	0.73	0.71

Lambda decomposition (how the goal rates were built)

Stage	Deportivo λ	Valencia λ
Pre-competitive-floor	0.726	0.871
Pre-calibration	0.726	0.871
Final λ	1.020	0.871

Scoreline distribution & markets

Top 5 scorelines	P
1-0	15.2%
0-0	15.2%
1-1	13.6%
0-1	13.0%
2-0	7.8%

Home win	38.0%
Draw	32.1%
Away win	30.0%
Over 2.5	29.4%
BTTS yes	37.3%

Pregame fair line — favorite Deportivo (38.0%), fair total 1.89, fair spread 0.15

Projected players vs season baseline

Proj = projected for this match · Season = this season's per-game average from match data · deviation badge compares projected xG to the player's season xG/game.

Deportivo — projected line vs season baseline (3-4-2-1)

Player	Pos	Min	Proj G	Proj xG	Season xG/g		Proj Sh	Season Sh/g	Proj Rtg	Season Rtg	Rec
Leo Román	G	89	0	0.00	-	n/a		0.0	83.6	38.7	7
Giacomo Quagliata	D	88	0	0.00	-	n/a	0	0.0	75.4	16.0	4
Adrià Altimira	D	90	0	0.00	-	n/a		0.0	87.6	17.5	4
Lucas Noubi	D	88	0	0.00	-	n/a	0	0.0	72.4	16.2	4
Lorenzo Amatucci	M	90	0	0.00	-	n/a	2	0.0	72.0	17.8	4
Mario Soriano	M	70	0	0.07	0.01	546%	1	0.2	80.0	17.8	4
David Mella	M	90	0	0.08	-	n/a	1	0.0	6.7	15.5	4
Angeliño	M	90	0	0.08	-	n/a	1	0.0	85.7	-	7
Yeremay Hernández	F	90	0	0.21	-	n/a	2	-	7.1	-	3
Jonathan Asp Jensen	F	90	1	0.25	0.19	ok	2	1.4	71.7	37.1	7
Bil Nsongo	F	90	0	0.16	0.00	6012%	2	0.2	6.7	17.0	4
Team totals			1	1.02			12			59.0

Valencia — projected line vs season baseline (4-2-3-1)

Player	Pos	Min	Proj xG	Season xG/g		Proj Sh	Season Sh/g	Proj Rtg	Season Rtg	Rec
Stole Dimitrievski	G	88	0.00	-	n/a		0.0	85.5	19.1	14
César Tárrega	D	90	0.15	0.03	481%	1	0.3	81.1	27.0	7
Justin De Haas	D	90	0.42	0.04	1054%	1	0.3	80.2	32.3	7
José Copete	D	90	0.00	-	n/a		-	84.6	-	3
José Luis Gayà	D	62	0.00	-	n/a	0	0.0	85.9	14.2	5
Javier Guerra	M	90	0.09	0.22	59%	3	1.6	67.2	34.7	7
Diego López	M	72	0.10	0.07	35%	2	0.8	85.0	36.3	6
Pepelu	M	38	0.00	0.01	100%	0	0.1	83.6	28.7	7
André Almeida	M	9	0.00	-	n/a	0	0.0	81.6	11.7	6
Filip Ugrinić	M	63	0.00	0.01	100%	2	0.3	81.7	28.4	7
Hugo Duro	F	72	0.01	0.08	90%	2	0.3	84.4	27.1	7
Team totals			0.87			13			81.9

Antagonist / tactical summary

Midfield is evenly contested — Lorenzo Amatucci vs Javier Guerra will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.42, Away: 0.34. Home danger zone: Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle. Away danger zone: RW vs CB.

Midfield — possession 48.9% / 51.1%, dominance ratio 0.46, key duel: Lorenzo Amatucci vs Javier Guerra

Bil Nsongo xG 0.09Yeremay Hernández xG 0.12David Mella xG 0.05Diego López xG 0.06Javier Guerra xG 0.06Filip Ugrinić xG 0.22

Summary

Antagonist matchup analysis for Deportivo vs Valencia. Most likely scoreline: 1-0. Lambdas derived from 5 home and 4 away individual player duels.

Tactical parity between 3-4-2-1 and 4-2-3-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Midfield is evenly contested — Lorenzo Amatucci vs Javier Guerra will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.42, Away: 0.34. Home danger zone: Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle. Away danger zone: RW vs CB.

Generated 2026-09-04 22:27:55 UTC · Soccer prediction reporting