Soccer predictions: actual data vs predicted data
Slate 20260831 · 2 match(es)
How to read this report. Each match shows the model's headline prediction, the stage-by-stage lambda (goal-rate) build, both teams' standing/form inputs, and every starter's projected line next to their real season baseline. A moderate / large deviation badge flags a projection that strays far from the player's season form — a quick way to spot when the inputs look right but a projection does not. When the real result is known an actual-vs-predicted banner appears.
All matches overview
| Match | Score | Winner | H / D / A | O2.5 | BTTS | Conf | λ H/A | Actual | Result |
|---|
| Osasuna vs Getafe LaLiga | 1-1 | Draw | 47.6% / 26.4% / 26.0% | 45.5% | 49.4% | 0.74 | 1.48 / 1.02 | - | pending |
| Barcelona vs Rayo Vallecano LaLiga | 4-0 | Barcelona | 92.4% / 5.3% / 2.3% | 85.6% | 47.8% | 0.95 | 4.13 / 0.67 | - | pending |
Match detail
Osasuna vs Getafe
LaLiga · 20260831 · 4-2-3-1 vs 3-4-2-1
Predicted 1-1Winner: DrawConfidence 0.74λ home/away 1.48 / 1.02Most-likely P 12.5%
Actual vs predicted: result not available yet (upcoming fixture).
Standing & form context
| Metric | Osasuna | Getafe |
|---|
| League position | 11.00 | 20.00 |
| Points per game | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Attack index | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Defense (concede) index | 1.25 | 1.00 |
| Form multiplier | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Standing λ multiplier | 1.10 | 1.00 |
Lambda decomposition (how the goal rates were built)
| Stage | Osasuna λ | Getafe λ |
|---|
| Pre-competitive-floor | 1.477 | 0.880 |
| Pre-calibration | 1.343 | 0.907 |
| Final λ | 1.477 | 1.020 |
competition calibration scale 1.0competition observed total goals 0.0quality gap applied Falsemismatch score pressure applied Falsecompetitive underdog floor applied Truestage discount 1.0
Scoreline distribution & markets
| Top 5 scorelines | P |
|---|
| 1-1 | 12.5% |
| 1-0 | 12.1% |
| 2-1 | 9.2% |
| 2-0 | 9.0% |
| 0-0 | 8.3% |
| Home win | 47.6% |
| Draw | 26.4% |
| Away win | 26.0% |
| Over 2.5 | 45.5% |
| BTTS yes | 49.4% |
Pregame fair line — favorite Osasuna (47.6%), fair total 2.50, fair spread 0.46
Projected players vs season baseline
Proj = projected for this match · Season = this season's per-game average from match data · deviation badge compares projected xG to the player's season xG/game.
Osasuna — projected line vs season baseline (4-2-3-1)
| Player | Pos | Min | Proj G | Proj xG | Season xG/g | | Proj Sh | Season Sh/g | Proj Rtg | Season Rtg | Rec |
|---|
| Sergio Herrera | G | 88 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | | 0.0 | 85.4 | 22.5 | 6 |
| Enzo Boyomo | D | 92 | 0 | 0.49 | 0.03 | 1488% | 1 | 0.4 | 84.7 | 27.6 | 7 |
| Abel Bretones | D | 48 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | 0 | 0.0 | 81.1 | 18.3 | 7 |
| Jorge Herrando | D | 67 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | 0 | 0.0 | 86.3 | 9.1 | 7 |
| Valentin Rosier | D | 84 | 0 | 0.13 | 0.03 | 389% | 2 | 0.7 | 84.0 | 29.9 | 7 |
| Jon Moncayola | M | 76 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 100% | 0 | 0.1 | 85.6 | 28.6 | 7 |
| Aimar Oroz | M | 52 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 100% | 2 | 0.1 | 83.6 | 28.1 | 7 |
| Jonathan Dubasin | M | 90 | 0 | 0.11 | - | n/a | 2 | - | 79.7 | - | 4 |
| Raúl Moro | M | 36 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | 2 | 0.0 | 82.2 | 21.0 | 6 |
| Lucas Torró | M | 65 | 0 | 0.37 | 0.05 | 615% | 3 | 1.1 | 84.8 | 29.1 | 7 |
| Raúl García de Haro | F | 50 | 1 | 0.17 | 0.07 | 149% | 2 | 0.9 | 84.5 | 28.6 | 7 |
| Team totals | 1 | 1.48 | | 15 | | 83.8 | |
Getafe — projected line vs season baseline (3-4-2-1)
| Player | Pos | Min | Proj G | Proj xG | Season xG/g | | Proj Sh | Season Sh/g | Proj Rtg | Season Rtg | Rec |
|---|
| David Soria | G | 88 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | | 0.0 | 87.9 | 45.8 | 6 |
| Andrés García | D | 45 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | 0 | 0.0 | 79.7 | 10.8 | 12 |
| Abdel Abqar | D | 65 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | 0 | 0.0 | 83.4 | 39.2 | 5 |
| Zaid Romero | D | 88 | 0 | 0.17 | 0.03 | 483% | 0 | 0.3 | 78.9 | 48.5 | 6 |
| Mario Martín | M | 78 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | 2 | 0.0 | 74.7 | 41.8 | 6 |
| Orel Mangala | M | 49 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 100% | 0 | 0.2 | 83.6 | 44.0 | 6 |
| Ramón Terrats | M | 51 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.02 | 487% | 1 | 0.5 | 82.7 | 33.3 | 6 |
| Francho Serrano | M | 90 | 0 | 0.10 | - | n/a | 1 | - | 79.7 | - | 2 |
| Christantus Uche | F | 90 | 0 | 0.26 | - | n/a | 2 | - | 89.9 | - | 2 |
| Martín Satriano | F | 85 | 1 | 0.31 | 0.29 | ok | 2 | 1.0 | 81.1 | 42.2 | 5 |
| Enes Ünal | F | 20 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.03 | 82% | 1 | 0.5 | 83.6 | 44.2 | 6 |
| Team totals | 1 | 1.02 | | 10 | | 82.3 | |
Antagonist / tactical summary
Midfield is evenly contested — Jon Moncayola vs Mario Martín will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.50, Away: 0.50. Home danger zone: LW vs CB. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle.
Midfield — possession 49.9% / 50.1%, dominance ratio 0.50, key duel: Jon Moncayola vs Mario Martín
Aimar Oroz xG 0.20Jonathan Dubasin xG 0.05Raúl Moro xG 0.18Martín Satriano xG 0.16Christantus Uche xG 0.13Ramón Terrats xG 0.05
Summary
Antagonist matchup analysis for Osasuna vs Getafe. Most likely scoreline: 1-1. Lambdas derived from 4 home and 5 away individual player duels.
Tactical parity between 4-2-3-1 and 3-4-2-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Midfield is evenly contested — Jon Moncayola vs Mario Martín will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.50, Away: 0.50. Home danger zone: LW vs CB. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle.
Barcelona vs Rayo Vallecano
LaLiga · 20260831 · 3-5-2 vs 3-4-2-1
Predicted 4-0Winner: BarcelonaConfidence 0.95λ home/away 4.13 / 0.67Most-likely P 10.1%
Actual vs predicted: result not available yet (upcoming fixture).
Standing & form context
| Metric | Barcelona | Rayo Vallecano |
|---|
| League position | 12.00 | 9.00 |
| Points per game | 0.00 | 0.50 |
| Attack index | 1.00 | 0.84 |
| Defense (concede) index | 1.25 | 1.00 |
| Form multiplier | 0.97 | 1.03 |
| Standing λ multiplier | 1.09 | 0.94 |
Lambda decomposition (how the goal rates were built)
| Stage | Barcelona λ | Rayo Vallecano λ |
|---|
| Pre-mismatch | 3.378 | 0.722 |
| Pre-calibration | 3.378 | 0.722 |
| Final λ | 4.131 | 0.666 |
competition calibration scale 1.0competition observed total goals 0.0quality gap applied Truemismatch score pressure applied Truecompetitive underdog floor applied Falsestage discount 1.0
Scoreline distribution & markets
| Top 5 scorelines | P |
|---|
| 4-0 | 10.1% |
| 3-0 | 9.8% |
| 5-0 | 8.4% |
| 2-0 | 7.1% |
| 4-1 | 6.7% |
| Home win | 92.4% |
| Draw | 5.3% |
| Away win | 2.3% |
| Over 2.5 | 85.6% |
| BTTS yes | 47.8% |
Pregame fair line — favorite Barcelona (92.4%), fair total 4.80, fair spread 3.46
Projected players vs season baseline
Proj = projected for this match · Season = this season's per-game average from match data · deviation badge compares projected xG to the player's season xG/game.
Barcelona — projected line vs season baseline (3-5-2)
| Player | Pos | Min | Proj G | Proj xG | Season xG/g | | Proj Sh | Season Sh/g | Proj Rtg | Season Rtg | Rec |
|---|
| Joan García | G | 95 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | | 0.0 | 90.3 | 19.2 | 18 |
| Pau Cubarsí | D | 94 | 0 | 0.24 | 0.01 | 2313% | 0 | 0.2 | 90.1 | 43.7 | 18 |
| Jules Koundé | D | 88 | 0 | 0.16 | 0.01 | 2267% | 0 | 0.2 | 94.5 | 47.4 | 17 |
| Alejandro Balde | D | 61 | 0 | 0.64 | 0.04 | 1705% | 1 | 0.2 | 86.0 | 28.4 | 9 |
| Lamine Yamal | M | 95 | 1 | 0.46 | 0.25 | 86% | 1 | 2.0 | 96.8 | 45.9 | 18 |
| Pedri | M | 74 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 100% | 2 | 0.2 | 96.8 | 51.7 | 18 |
| Fermín López | M | 64 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.14 | 100% | 1 | 0.8 | 95.3 | 37.8 | 9 |
| Raphinha | M | 95 | 1 | 0.97 | 0.12 | 677% | 2 | 1.0 | 96.7 | 28.3 | 14 |
| Dani Olmo | M | 64 | 0 | 0.19 | 0.07 | 189% | 1 | 0.9 | 92.7 | 50.9 | 19 |
| Anthony Gordon | F | 49 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.04 | 72% | 3 | 0.3 | 90.4 | 22.7 | 21 |
| Karim Adeyemi | F | 16 | 2 | 1.34 | - | n/a | 2 | 0.0 | 88.1 | 22.2 | 6 |
| Team totals | 4 | 4.13 | | 13 | | 92.5 | |
Rayo Vallecano — projected line vs season baseline (3-4-2-1)
| Player | Pos | Min | Proj G | Proj xG | Season xG/g | | Proj Sh | Season Sh/g | Proj Rtg | Season Rtg | Rec |
|---|
| Augusto Batalla | G | 82 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | | 0.0 | 86.0 | 40.3 | 7 |
| Andrei Rațiu | D | 70 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.02 | 331% | 1 | 0.4 | 85.9 | 44.4 | 9 |
| Marash Kumbulla | D | 90 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | | - | 83.6 | - | 2 |
| Luiz Felipe | D | 90 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | | - | 81.6 | - | 2 |
| Isi Palazón | M | 40 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 100% | 1 | 0.2 | 84.5 | 33.2 | 4 |
| Pedro Díaz | M | 53 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 100% | 1 | 0.4 | 81.3 | 36.7 | 7 |
| Giorgi Tsitaishvili | M | 88 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.01 | 560% | 1 | 0.2 | 78.7 | 16.0 | 4 |
| Unai López | M | 67 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 100% | 1 | 0.2 | 82.9 | 46.5 | 6 |
| Jorge de Frutos | F | 38 | 0 | 0.13 | 0.08 | 53% | 2 | 0.6 | 88.7 | 48.4 | 7 |
| Alemão | F | 39 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.07 | 31% | 2 | 0.7 | 82.4 | 38.7 | 7 |
| Sergio Camello | F | 55 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.13 | ok | 2 | 1.4 | 80.1 | 43.1 | 7 |
| Team totals | 0 | 0.67 | | 11 | | 83.2 | |
Antagonist / tactical summary
Home midfield dominates with ~56% possession expected (Lamine Yamal vs Isi Palazón). Total antagonist xG — Home: 1.20, Away: 0.45. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat.
Midfield — possession 55.9% / 44.1%, dominance ratio 0.67, key duel: Lamine Yamal vs Isi Palazón
Lamine Yamal xG 0.17Pedri xG 0.22Raphinha xG 0.35Isi Palazón xG 0.05Unai López xG 0.07Pedro Díaz xG 0.08
Summary
Antagonist matchup analysis for Barcelona vs Rayo Vallecano. Most likely scoreline: 4-0. Lambdas derived from 6 home and 7 away individual player duels.
Tactical parity between 3-5-2 and 3-4-2-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Home midfield dominates with ~56% possession expected (Lamine Yamal vs Isi Palazón). Total antagonist xG — Home: 1.20, Away: 0.45. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat.
Generated 2026-09-04 22:27:55 UTC · Soccer prediction reporting