Soccer predictions: actual data vs predicted data
Slate 20260904 · 2 match(es)
How to read this report. Each match shows the model's headline prediction, the stage-by-stage lambda (goal-rate) build, both teams' standing/form inputs, and every starter's projected line next to their real season baseline. A moderate / large deviation badge flags a projection that strays far from the player's season form — a quick way to spot when the inputs look right but a projection does not. When the real result is known an actual-vs-predicted banner appears.
All matches overview
| Match | Score | Winner | H / D / A | O2.5 | BTTS | Conf | λ H/A | Actual | Result |
|---|
| Ipswich vs Liverpool Premier League | 0-2 | Liverpool | 13.3% / 18.2% / 68.5% | 62.2% | 53.8% | 0.66 | 0.91 / 2.30 | - | pending |
| Real Betis vs Real Madrid LaLiga | 0-2 | Real Madrid | 6.7% / 11.8% / 81.5% | 72.9% | 51.8% | 0.74 | 0.79 / 3.00 | - | pending |
Match detail
Ipswich vs Liverpool
Premier League · 20260904 · 3-5-2 vs 3-5-2
Predicted 0-2Winner: LiverpoolConfidence 0.66λ home/away 0.91 / 2.30Most-likely P 10.7%
Actual vs predicted: result not available yet (upcoming fixture).
Standing & form context
| Metric | Ipswich | Liverpool |
|---|
| League position | 12.00 | 14.00 |
| Points per game | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Attack index | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Defense (concede) index | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Form multiplier | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Standing λ multiplier | 1.00 | 1.00 |
Lambda decomposition (how the goal rates were built)
| Stage | Ipswich λ | Liverpool λ |
|---|
| Pre-mismatch | 0.949 | 2.030 |
| Pre-calibration | 0.949 | 2.030 |
| Final λ | 0.910 | 2.299 |
competition calibration scale 1.0competition observed total goals 0.0quality gap applied Truemismatch score pressure applied Truecompetitive underdog floor applied Falsestage discount 1.0
Scoreline distribution & markets
| Top 5 scorelines | P |
|---|
| 0-2 | 10.7% |
| 1-2 | 9.7% |
| 0-1 | 9.2% |
| 1-1 | 8.5% |
| 0-3 | 8.2% |
| Home win | 13.3% |
| Draw | 18.2% |
| Away win | 68.5% |
| Over 2.5 | 62.2% |
| BTTS yes | 53.8% |
Pregame fair line — favorite Liverpool (68.5%), fair total 3.21, fair spread -1.39
Projected players vs season baseline
Proj = projected for this match · Season = this season's per-game average from match data · deviation badge compares projected xG to the player's season xG/game.
Ipswich — projected line vs season baseline (3-5-2)
| Player | Pos | Min | Proj G | Proj xG | Season xG/g | | Proj Sh | Season Sh/g | Proj Rtg | Season Rtg | Rec |
|---|
| Kjell Scherpen | G | 90 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | | 0.0 | 6.9 | 40.4 | 7 |
| Leif Davis | D | 90 | 0 | 0.02 | - | n/a | 0 | - | 7.1 | - | 3 |
| Dara O'Shea | D | 90 | 0 | 0.02 | - | n/a | 0 | - | 7.0 | - | 4 |
| Jacob Greaves | D | 90 | 0 | 0.01 | - | n/a | 0 | - | 7.0 | - | 3 |
| Julio Enciso | M | 76 | 0 | 0.14 | 0.14 | ok | 1 | 1.3 | 7.3 | 37.8 | 15 |
| Jack Clarke | M | 90 | 0 | 0.08 | - | n/a | 2 | - | 7.2 | - | 2 |
| Abdul Fatawu Issahaku | M | 90 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 1647% | 1 | 0.3 | 7.2 | 24.5 | 11 |
| Jaden Philogene-Bidace | M | 90 | 0 | 0.08 | - | n/a | 1 | - | 7.1 | - | 2 |
| Sindre Walle Egeli | M | 90 | 0 | 0.08 | - | n/a | 1 | - | 7.1 | - | 2 |
| Anis Mehmeti | F | 90 | 0 | 0.14 | - | n/a | 2 | 0.0 | 7.1 | - | 3 |
| Daizen Maeda | F | 88 | 0 | 0.18 | 0.27 | 35% | 2 | 1.3 | 6.9 | 45.8 | 11 |
| Team totals | 0 | 0.91 | | 11 | | 7.1 | |
Liverpool — projected line vs season baseline (3-5-2)
| Player | Pos | Min | Proj G | Proj xG | Season xG/g | | Proj Sh | Season Sh/g | Proj Rtg | Season Rtg | Rec |
|---|
| Giorgi Mamardashvili | G | 95 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | | 0.0 | 7.2 | 27.1 | 10 |
| Jérémy Jacquet | D | 90 | 0 | 0.03 | - | n/a | 0 | - | 7.4 | - | 3 |
| Jeremie Frimpong | D | 43 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.01 | 883% | 0 | 0.1 | 7.1 | 41.0 | 8 |
| Miloš Kerkez | D | 75 | 0 | 0.35 | 0.05 | 604% | 1 | 0.4 | 7.2 | 40.1 | 10 |
| Florian Wirtz | M | 77 | 0 | 0.23 | 0.17 | 38% | 1 | 1.3 | 7.9 | 42.5 | 15 |
| Dominik Szoboszlai | M | 95 | 0 | 0.24 | 0.10 | 143% | 2 | 1.3 | 8.0 | 44.1 | 10 |
| Ryan Gravenberch | M | 95 | 0 | 0.19 | 0.05 | 280% | 2 | 0.9 | 7.7 | 43.6 | 14 |
| Alexis Mac Allister | M | 92 | 0 | 0.15 | 0.13 | ok | 1 | 1.2 | 7.7 | 42.6 | 17 |
| Cody Gakpo | M | 90 | 0 | 0.18 | 0.14 | ok | 2 | 0.9 | 7.5 | 36.8 | 17 |
| Alexander Isak | F | 77 | 1 | 0.40 | 0.07 | 489% | 3 | 0.8 | 7.6 | 36.8 | 11 |
| Hugo Ekitiké | F | 95 | 1 | 0.33 | 0.20 | 66% | 3 | 1.4 | 7.7 | 40.6 | 7 |
| Team totals | 2 | 2.30 | | 16 | | 7.5 | |
Antagonist / tactical summary
Away midfield dictates play with ~53% possession expected (Julio Enciso vs Florian Wirtz). Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.84, Away: 1.33. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle.
Midfield — possession 47.0% / 53.0%, dominance ratio 0.42, key duel: Julio Enciso vs Florian Wirtz
Jaden Philogene-Bidace xG 0.09Julio Enciso xG 0.16Abdul Fatawu Issahaku xG 0.09Florian Wirtz xG 0.21Ryan Gravenberch xG 0.18Dominik Szoboszlai xG 0.23
Summary
Antagonist matchup analysis for Ipswich vs Liverpool. Most likely scoreline: 0-2. Lambdas derived from 6 home and 6 away individual player duels.
Tactical parity between 3-5-2 and 3-5-2. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Away midfield dictates play with ~53% possession expected (Julio Enciso vs Florian Wirtz). Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.84, Away: 1.33. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle.
Real Betis vs Real Madrid
LaLiga · 20260904 · 3-5-2 vs 3-4-2-1
Predicted 0-2Winner: Real MadridConfidence 0.74λ home/away 0.79 / 3.00Most-likely P 10.2%
Actual vs predicted: result not available yet (upcoming fixture).
Standing & form context
| Metric | Real Betis | Real Madrid |
|---|
| League position | 14.00 | 15.00 |
| Points per game | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Attack index | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Defense (concede) index | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Form multiplier | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Standing λ multiplier | 1.00 | 1.00 |
Lambda decomposition (how the goal rates were built)
| Stage | Real Betis λ | Real Madrid λ |
|---|
| Pre-mismatch | 0.827 | 2.604 |
| Pre-calibration | 0.827 | 2.604 |
| Final λ | 0.787 | 2.999 |
competition calibration scale 1.0competition observed total goals 0.0quality gap applied Truemismatch score pressure applied Truecompetitive underdog floor applied Falsestage discount 1.0
Scoreline distribution & markets
| Top 5 scorelines | P |
|---|
| 0-2 | 10.2% |
| 0-3 | 10.2% |
| 1-2 | 8.0% |
| 1-3 | 8.0% |
| 0-4 | 7.6% |
| Home win | 6.7% |
| Draw | 11.8% |
| Away win | 81.5% |
| Over 2.5 | 72.9% |
| BTTS yes | 51.8% |
Pregame fair line — favorite Real Madrid (81.5%), fair total 3.79, fair spread -2.21
Projected players vs season baseline
Proj = projected for this match · Season = this season's per-game average from match data · deviation badge compares projected xG to the player's season xG/game.
Real Betis — projected line vs season baseline (3-5-2)
| Player | Pos | Min | Proj G | Proj xG | Season xG/g | | Proj Sh | Season Sh/g | Proj Rtg | Season Rtg | Rec |
|---|
| Álvaro Valles | G | 89 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | | 0.0 | 6.9 | 11.9 | 11 |
| Natan | D | 74 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | 0 | 0.0 | 7.1 | 41.0 | 10 |
| Valentín Gómez | D | 50 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.01 | 574% | 0 | 0.1 | 6.7 | 32.6 | 10 |
| Fran García | D | 59 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | 0 | 0.0 | 6.7 | 21.8 | 12 |
| Abdessamad Ezzalzouli | M | 86 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.15 | ok | 1 | 0.9 | 7.5 | 34.1 | 15 |
| Antony | M | 95 | 0 | 0.15 | 0.19 | ok | 1 | 2.1 | 7.7 | 46.8 | 11 |
| Nelson Deossa | M | 35 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 1754% | 1 | 0.2 | 6.9 | 25.7 | 10 |
| Pablo Fornals | M | 73 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.04 | ok | 1 | 0.7 | 7.0 | 39.6 | 11 |
| Pablo García | M | 90 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 1581% | 1 | 0.2 | 7.0 | 10.8 | 6 |
| Troy Parrott | F | 76 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.15 | ok | 2 | 1.0 | 7.2 | 29.1 | 7 |
| Cucho Hernández | F | 77 | 0 | 0.15 | 0.26 | 40% | 2 | 1.7 | 7.0 | 34.8 | 14 |
| Team totals | 0 | 0.79 | | 10 | | 7.1 | |
Real Madrid — projected line vs season baseline (3-4-2-1)
| Player | Pos | Min | Proj G | Proj xG | Season xG/g | | Proj Sh | Season Sh/g | Proj Rtg | Season Rtg | Rec |
|---|
| Thibaut Courtois | G | 86 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | | 0.0 | 7.1 | 46.9 | 17 |
| Dean Huijsen | D | 78 | 0 | 0.00 | - | n/a | 0 | 0.0 | 7.5 | 34.6 | 10 |
| Marc Cucurella | D | 95 | 0 | 0.21 | 0.02 | 845% | 0 | 0.2 | 7.5 | 46.3 | 16 |
| Trent Alexander-Arnold | D | 81 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.02 | 347% | 1 | 0.6 | 7.4 | 48.6 | 10 |
| Jude Bellingham | M | 76 | 0 | 0.23 | 0.18 | ok | 2 | 1.1 | 7.7 | 57.3 | 16 |
| Arda Güler | M | 83 | 0 | 0.29 | 0.10 | 176% | 1 | 1.4 | 7.9 | 48.0 | 17 |
| Federico Valverde | M | 94 | 0 | 0.27 | 0.18 | 52% | 1 | 1.5 | 7.8 | 50.0 | 13 |
| Aurélien Tchouaméni | M | 95 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.04 | 168% | 2 | 0.6 | 7.8 | 38.5 | 19 |
| Kylian Mbappé | F | 88 | 1 | 0.56 | 0.55 | ok | 3 | 3.5 | 8.6 | 57.6 | 19 |
| Vinícius Júnior | F | 95 | 1 | 0.68 | 0.55 | ok | 3 | 2.6 | 8.2 | 53.7 | 17 |
| Yan Diomande | F | 95 | 0 | 0.46 | 0.07 | 549% | 3 | 0.6 | 7.8 | 35.9 | 14 |
| Team totals | 2 | 3.00 | | 16 | | 7.8 | |
Antagonist / tactical summary
Away midfield dictates play with ~54% possession expected (Abdessamad Ezzalzouli vs Jude Bellingham). Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.82, Away: 1.80. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat.
Midfield — possession 46.3% / 53.7%, dominance ratio 0.42, key duel: Abdessamad Ezzalzouli vs Jude Bellingham
Nelson Deossa xG 0.06Abdessamad Ezzalzouli xG 0.13Antony xG 0.18Arda Güler xG 0.23Jude Bellingham xG 0.20Aurélien Tchouaméni xG 0.09
Summary
Antagonist matchup analysis for Real Betis vs Real Madrid. Most likely scoreline: 0-2. Lambdas derived from 6 home and 7 away individual player duels.
Tactical parity between 3-5-2 and 3-4-2-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Away midfield dictates play with ~54% possession expected (Abdessamad Ezzalzouli vs Jude Bellingham). Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.82, Away: 1.80. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat.
Generated 2026-09-04 22:27:55 UTC · Soccer prediction reporting